6.0 Kempton-Analysis-Dr Finley seems overpriced to me.
Back Dr Finley 6pts at 11.0-UP(-6pts)
630 Kempton-Analysis-Silenzio deserves to get his head in front after a series of good efforts,he should be favourite on my ratings
Back Silenzio 7.5pts at 7.6-UP(-7.5pts)(DT-13.5pts)
Monthly Total+92.50pts
Running Total+2501.62pts
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
7th December
3.0 Leicester-Analysis-I can only see 1 possible danger to the selection,Christopher Wren is unexposed over hurdles and is stepping up in trip,so may well improve for that but on my ratings,he needs to.If Fiendish Flame can run anywhere near his last run,he should win.
Back Fiendish Flame 25pts at 3.0-4th(-25pts)Got hassled for the lead early by the winning owners 2nd horse in the race and trying to get away from that horse told late on.
330 Leicester-Analysis-Although hes getting on a bit,Marked Man is very consistent and should run his race.Key Cutter looks the main danger with Forty Five having to prove himself on firm ground.
Back Marked Man 15pts at 4.0-3rd(-15pts)(DT-40pts)Marked Man jumped well but just couldnt keep up when his younger opponents kicked 2 out.
650 Kempton-Analysis-Providing Storm Runner can repeat his last run over a furlong shorter,he should go very well.
Back Storm Runner 9.5pts at 5.2-Won(+40pts)(DT=)A strong late surge from Storm Runner manages to get us back to level for the day.
Back Fiendish Flame 25pts at 3.0-4th(-25pts)Got hassled for the lead early by the winning owners 2nd horse in the race and trying to get away from that horse told late on.
330 Leicester-Analysis-Although hes getting on a bit,Marked Man is very consistent and should run his race.Key Cutter looks the main danger with Forty Five having to prove himself on firm ground.
Back Marked Man 15pts at 4.0-3rd(-15pts)(DT-40pts)Marked Man jumped well but just couldnt keep up when his younger opponents kicked 2 out.
650 Kempton-Analysis-Providing Storm Runner can repeat his last run over a furlong shorter,he should go very well.
Back Storm Runner 9.5pts at 5.2-Won(+40pts)(DT=)A strong late surge from Storm Runner manages to get us back to level for the day.
5th December
I did like Soprano in the 12.20 at Musselburgh but it has been backed overnight to a short price,so its unlikely we would get the 3.0 we would need.
No selections today
No selections today
4th December
140 Warwick-Analysis-Triangular is very hard to gauge as regards rating him.Sky Callings best runs would put him bang there.
Back Sky Calling 7.5pts at 7.6-UP(-7.5pts)Bad Call really as Triangular won easily.
310 Warwick-Analysis-Keep Talking has been well backed but hes very inconsistent and while Easydoesit has a doubt if the ground isnt as good as described,this is his first run in a handicap and he should run well in a very weak race.
Back EasyDoesit 7pts at 6.0-2nd(-7pts)Horse ran well but found Keep Talking on a going day.(DT-14.5pts)
Monthly Total+106pts
Running Total+2515.12pts
Back Sky Calling 7.5pts at 7.6-UP(-7.5pts)Bad Call really as Triangular won easily.
310 Warwick-Analysis-Keep Talking has been well backed but hes very inconsistent and while Easydoesit has a doubt if the ground isnt as good as described,this is his first run in a handicap and he should run well in a very weak race.
Back EasyDoesit 7pts at 6.0-2nd(-7pts)Horse ran well but found Keep Talking on a going day.(DT-14.5pts)
Monthly Total+106pts
Running Total+2515.12pts
3rd December
145 Wetherby-Analysis-Nine Stories is a danger as he goes very well fresh but Diamond Frontier ran a blinder first time out and should go even better with a bit more cut in the ground.
Back Diamond Frontier 15pts at 3.0-Won(+30pts)-I adjusted the price after earlier posting because of the non runner.Really brave win as the selection jumped well and battled back after being headed.
115 Wetherby-Analysis-Simonside is a decent favourite but My Arch will prove a tough opponent as the step up in trip will suit him while Rossmore Lad on my ratings needs to progress by at least 7Ib to have any chance.
Back My Arch 9pts at 6.6-Won(+50.4pts) & Lay Rossmore Lad 35pts at 5.3-UP(+35pts)(+85.4pts)-Another really well backed winner(DT+115.40pts)
220 Wetherby-Analysis-Pretty competitive race,I feel Dance for Julie and Sure Josie Sure are a little short and hopefully we should get matched on Teenage Idol who should run well.
Back Teenage Idol 6pts at 9.0-2nd(Wasnt matched)Horse ran well though which was good
340 Sandown-Analysis-Ive narrowed this marathon test down to 2,Do it for Dalkey is running well and if getting the trip,will be a tough horse to beat but Major Malarkey has a history of running well fresh,gets the trip and will like the ground.
Back Major Malarkey 7.5pts at 7.6-UP(-7.5pts)Horse ran well and was leading between the last 2 fences but a mistake at the last put paid to his chance(DT+107.90pts)
850 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Probably not a race to take a short price in as there are a few who its possible havent shown their full hand yet particularly Limpopo Tom and Empyrean,having said that Monahullan Prince has been running well over hurdles and is 1/1 at the track,Just cant let this go unbacked at the price.
Back Monahullan Prince 5pts at 12.0-UP(-5pts)There was a bit of money for it and it made a good move just before the turn but it had no answer when the days big gamble Limpopo Tom kicked clear.(DT+102.90pts)
Days total minus commission+97.75pts
Monthly Total+120.50pts
Runing Total+2529.62pts
Back Diamond Frontier 15pts at 3.0-Won(+30pts)-I adjusted the price after earlier posting because of the non runner.Really brave win as the selection jumped well and battled back after being headed.
115 Wetherby-Analysis-Simonside is a decent favourite but My Arch will prove a tough opponent as the step up in trip will suit him while Rossmore Lad on my ratings needs to progress by at least 7Ib to have any chance.
Back My Arch 9pts at 6.6-Won(+50.4pts) & Lay Rossmore Lad 35pts at 5.3-UP(+35pts)(+85.4pts)-Another really well backed winner(DT+115.40pts)
220 Wetherby-Analysis-Pretty competitive race,I feel Dance for Julie and Sure Josie Sure are a little short and hopefully we should get matched on Teenage Idol who should run well.
Back Teenage Idol 6pts at 9.0-2nd(Wasnt matched)Horse ran well though which was good
340 Sandown-Analysis-Ive narrowed this marathon test down to 2,Do it for Dalkey is running well and if getting the trip,will be a tough horse to beat but Major Malarkey has a history of running well fresh,gets the trip and will like the ground.
Back Major Malarkey 7.5pts at 7.6-UP(-7.5pts)Horse ran well and was leading between the last 2 fences but a mistake at the last put paid to his chance(DT+107.90pts)
850 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Probably not a race to take a short price in as there are a few who its possible havent shown their full hand yet particularly Limpopo Tom and Empyrean,having said that Monahullan Prince has been running well over hurdles and is 1/1 at the track,Just cant let this go unbacked at the price.
Back Monahullan Prince 5pts at 12.0-UP(-5pts)There was a bit of money for it and it made a good move just before the turn but it had no answer when the days big gamble Limpopo Tom kicked clear.(DT+102.90pts)
Days total minus commission+97.75pts
Monthly Total+120.50pts
Runing Total+2529.62pts
2nd December
145 Lingfield-Analysis-Dr Livingstone won nicely last time and should go close again.
Back Dr Livingstone 12pts at 4.5-3rd(-12pts)
5.0 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Blue Moon and Loyalty were the 2 solid ones here I thought although there has been money for Famusa.Loyalty is the bigger price.
Back Loyalty 15pts at 5.5-Won(+67.5pts)(DT+55.5pts) Called it spot on,well backed and won pretty cosy.
Days total minus commission+52.75pts
Monthly Total:+22.75pts
Running Total+2431.87pts
Back Dr Livingstone 12pts at 4.5-3rd(-12pts)
5.0 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Blue Moon and Loyalty were the 2 solid ones here I thought although there has been money for Famusa.Loyalty is the bigger price.
Back Loyalty 15pts at 5.5-Won(+67.5pts)(DT+55.5pts) Called it spot on,well backed and won pretty cosy.
Days total minus commission+52.75pts
Monthly Total:+22.75pts
Running Total+2431.87pts
1st December
235 Leicester-Analysis-As the only runner with decent recent form and according to my ratings,is also steadily improving.Edgebury has got very solid claims in this weak contest.
Back Edgebury 30pts at 3.0-2nd(-30pts)A rejuvenated Amuse Me proved just too good.Ironically with 2 non runners theres no way I would have backed the selection at its revised price,fairly typical of the last 30 days or so.
Monthly Total-30pts
Running Total+2379.12pts
Back Edgebury 30pts at 3.0-2nd(-30pts)A rejuvenated Amuse Me proved just too good.Ironically with 2 non runners theres no way I would have backed the selection at its revised price,fairly typical of the last 30 days or so.
Monthly Total-30pts
Running Total+2379.12pts
30th November
530 Kempton-Analysis-Looks a 2 horse race to me with Laaheb and Barbican holding strong claims.Ceilidh House has no form on the surface and has to improve a lot for it to hold a chance.
Lay Ceilidh House 35pts at 5.0-2nd(+35pts)
Monthly Total-289.28pts
Running Total+2409.12pts
Lay Ceilidh House 35pts at 5.0-2nd(+35pts)
Monthly Total-289.28pts
Running Total+2409.12pts
28th November
330 FFos Las-Analysis-Kilcommon Pride has got such an amazing chance that I feel as ive got him so short (1.4)in my own tissue,that the current 2.5 available is still massive value although a bit below the price I normally want to back at.As long as it jumps around,it should win.
Back Kilcommon Pride 40pts at 2.5-UP(-40pts)-A below par run and a bit of a lesson for me for going under my ceiling price.Dont know whether it was the extreme conditions that the race was run in,as the ground was bottomless.The selection had won on soft but this was very heavy ground and he was struggling before the home turn.
Monthly Total-324.28pts
Running Total+2374.12pts
Back Kilcommon Pride 40pts at 2.5-UP(-40pts)-A below par run and a bit of a lesson for me for going under my ceiling price.Dont know whether it was the extreme conditions that the race was run in,as the ground was bottomless.The selection had won on soft but this was very heavy ground and he was struggling before the home turn.
Monthly Total-324.28pts
Running Total+2374.12pts
27th November
135 Leicester-Analysis-Wee Giant has an outstanding chance but looks unlikely to hit my lowest price I will back at(2/1),if it does then that would be amazing value.American Art is solid at this level and trip,so we will take Baccalaureate on as his ratings over this trip are well below his consistent 2mile ones.
Lay Baccalaureate 35pts at 5.5-2nd(+35pts)-It sounds close but it wasnt as Wee Giant was as easier a winner as you will ever see.
345 Leicester-Analysis-Fiercely competitive handicap and for that reason alone,CastleRock has to be taken on,its never won and achieved its best rating over further.Quiet Whisper ran really well last time and Ive got to have a bit on him as well.
Back Quiet Whisper 5pts at 11.0-Won(+50pts) & Lay CastleRock 35pts at 4.5-UP(+35pts)(DT+120pts)
Days total minus commission+114.0pts
Monthly Total-284.28pts
Running Total+2414.12pts
Lay Baccalaureate 35pts at 5.5-2nd(+35pts)-It sounds close but it wasnt as Wee Giant was as easier a winner as you will ever see.
345 Leicester-Analysis-Fiercely competitive handicap and for that reason alone,CastleRock has to be taken on,its never won and achieved its best rating over further.Quiet Whisper ran really well last time and Ive got to have a bit on him as well.
Back Quiet Whisper 5pts at 11.0-Won(+50pts) & Lay CastleRock 35pts at 4.5-UP(+35pts)(DT+120pts)
Days total minus commission+114.0pts
Monthly Total-284.28pts
Running Total+2414.12pts
26th November
120 Bangor-Analysis-Quotica De Poyans could be a big danger and Wolf Moon has ran well on its last 2 starts,but Oscar Prairie looks like its improving and should be clear fav.
Back Oscar Prairie 16pts at 3.5-PU(-16pts)Just another terrible run for a horse that went off joint fav,so it wasnt only me that thought it would run well.Never travelling or jumping at any point.
12.20 Newbury-Analysis-This is one of those races where after it you think,why did I waste money on that(nothing new there on recent evidence!!) but I cant let Double Dizzy go at this price.It ran really well last time and does have ratings over the ground and distance to win this.It should stay on strongly.
Back Double Dizzy 6pts at 10.0-4th(-6pts)Horse ran quite well and there was money for it but just couldnt respond near the end.
1235 Newcastle-Analysis-Although not the strongest of races,I cant see why Dollar Mick should so short in the betting.He has no great record first time out and his trainer is struggling for winners.
Lay Dollar Mick 35pts at 4.7-2nd(+35pts)(DT+13pts)
220 Newcastle-Analysis-Im against Binocular here as it nearly always runs 10Ib below its rating on its first run of the season.Overturn stays a bit further which may be handy as conditions look pretty slow.
Back Overturn 15pts at 4.0-Won(+45pts)(DT+58pts)
Days total minus commission+55.10pts
Monthly Total-398.28pts
Running Total+2300.12pts
Back Oscar Prairie 16pts at 3.5-PU(-16pts)Just another terrible run for a horse that went off joint fav,so it wasnt only me that thought it would run well.Never travelling or jumping at any point.
12.20 Newbury-Analysis-This is one of those races where after it you think,why did I waste money on that(nothing new there on recent evidence!!) but I cant let Double Dizzy go at this price.It ran really well last time and does have ratings over the ground and distance to win this.It should stay on strongly.
Back Double Dizzy 6pts at 10.0-4th(-6pts)Horse ran quite well and there was money for it but just couldnt respond near the end.
1235 Newcastle-Analysis-Although not the strongest of races,I cant see why Dollar Mick should so short in the betting.He has no great record first time out and his trainer is struggling for winners.
Lay Dollar Mick 35pts at 4.7-2nd(+35pts)(DT+13pts)
220 Newcastle-Analysis-Im against Binocular here as it nearly always runs 10Ib below its rating on its first run of the season.Overturn stays a bit further which may be handy as conditions look pretty slow.
Back Overturn 15pts at 4.0-Won(+45pts)(DT+58pts)
Days total minus commission+55.10pts
Monthly Total-398.28pts
Running Total+2300.12pts
25th November
235 Doncaster-Analysis-Pretty wide open race with Chase debutant AccordingtoLawrence heading the market,however the ground providing it stays quick will be pretty lively for it.Quicuyo is solid but the overpriced one is Zorro De La vega who has been generally very consistent.
Back Zorro De La Vega 6pts at 10.0-UP(-6pts)There was money for it but Quicuyo won very well.
225 Musselburgh-Analysis-Another race where there a few with chances but once again Ive got to go for the overpriced one in my opinion,which is High Bird Humphrey who goes well under these conditions.
Back High Bird Humphrey 7pts at 8.0-UP(-7pts)Was never really in it
4.0 Wolverhampton-Analysis-If he can overcome his wide draw then Prince James should take a lot of beating.
Back Prince James 9pts at 5.5-UP(-9pts)(DT-22pts)
740 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Although I respect his consistency,I cant have Tarooq as fav.Theres a host of chances against it,Munsarim is very strong but not a big enough price to back,Isleman and Change the subject ,Bakoura and Follow the flag all ran well last time while Star Links loves it here.
Lay Tarooq 35pts at 4.3-Won(-115pts)(DT-137pts)Another bad result in a shocking month.Easily my worst since starting this blog.
Monthly Total-453.38pts
Running Total+2245.02pts
Back Zorro De La Vega 6pts at 10.0-UP(-6pts)There was money for it but Quicuyo won very well.
225 Musselburgh-Analysis-Another race where there a few with chances but once again Ive got to go for the overpriced one in my opinion,which is High Bird Humphrey who goes well under these conditions.
Back High Bird Humphrey 7pts at 8.0-UP(-7pts)Was never really in it
4.0 Wolverhampton-Analysis-If he can overcome his wide draw then Prince James should take a lot of beating.
Back Prince James 9pts at 5.5-UP(-9pts)(DT-22pts)
740 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Although I respect his consistency,I cant have Tarooq as fav.Theres a host of chances against it,Munsarim is very strong but not a big enough price to back,Isleman and Change the subject ,Bakoura and Follow the flag all ran well last time while Star Links loves it here.
Lay Tarooq 35pts at 4.3-Won(-115pts)(DT-137pts)Another bad result in a shocking month.Easily my worst since starting this blog.
Monthly Total-453.38pts
Running Total+2245.02pts
24th November
4.0 Taunton-Analysis-Milly Malone appears to have loads in its favour here,its clear top rated for me and has a progressive profile.
Back Milly Malone 25pts at 3.0-UP(-25pts)Held up off a slow pace,he was out of his ground when the sprint for home started but it never picked up anyway.very surprised how poorly this ran.
540 Kempton-Analysis-Providing it goes as well here as it does at Wolverhampton then the improving 3yo Art Thief must run well.
Back Art Thief 15pts at 5.0(6.0 at Ladbrokes)-UP(-15pts)(DT-40pts)Another poor run despite being very well backed.
Monthly Total-338.38pts
Running Total+2360.02pts
Back Milly Malone 25pts at 3.0-UP(-25pts)Held up off a slow pace,he was out of his ground when the sprint for home started but it never picked up anyway.very surprised how poorly this ran.
540 Kempton-Analysis-Providing it goes as well here as it does at Wolverhampton then the improving 3yo Art Thief must run well.
Back Art Thief 15pts at 5.0(6.0 at Ladbrokes)-UP(-15pts)(DT-40pts)Another poor run despite being very well backed.
Monthly Total-338.38pts
Running Total+2360.02pts
23rd November
255 Fontwell-Analysis-Very weak affair where recent form is in short supply,the only real solid horse is Southway Star and I think he should be fav not Bagsys Bridge.
Back Southway Star 20pts at 4.0-Won(+60pts)-I managed to get 4.9 very early this morning and this horse was nicely backed.
705 Kempton-Analysis-I like Tislaam and Sermons Mount in this.There has been a big move for Ocean Legend today and that has to be respected as well from a gambling stable but hopefully Sermons Mount can prevail.
Back Sermons Mount 6pts at 9.0-3rd(-6pts)(DT+54pts)-Horse ran well but the money for Ocean Legend was very significant.
Days total minus commission+51.30pts
Monthly Total-298.38
Running Total+2400.02pts
Back Southway Star 20pts at 4.0-Won(+60pts)-I managed to get 4.9 very early this morning and this horse was nicely backed.
705 Kempton-Analysis-I like Tislaam and Sermons Mount in this.There has been a big move for Ocean Legend today and that has to be respected as well from a gambling stable but hopefully Sermons Mount can prevail.
Back Sermons Mount 6pts at 9.0-3rd(-6pts)(DT+54pts)-Horse ran well but the money for Ocean Legend was very significant.
Days total minus commission+51.30pts
Monthly Total-298.38
Running Total+2400.02pts
22nd November
Really sorry for no updates today,Internet was down this morning before I left for work.
21st November
215 Ludlow-Analysis-Im not certain likely fav Wessex King will improve much for his comeback run,Blindspin will run well if he gets round but thats a big`if`.Wester Ross is pretty consistent and hopefully should run really well.
Back Wester Ross 10pts at 6.0-Won(50pts)-This is whats supposed to happen,a horse that I identiified as overpriced gets well backed(2/1 sp) and hoses up.
310 Kempton-Analysis-Ive got this down as a 3 horse race,Pickamus and Midnight Appeal are much respected but purely on value grounds,Inside Dealer looks too big a price.
Back Inside Dealer 11pts at 5.0-2nd(-11pts)(DT+39pts)-Dont know what I prefer ,a horse to run nowhere or one that jumps into the lead,kicks clear and then gets caught right near the line.It was still a good call.
Days total minus commission+37.05pts
Monthly Total-349.68pts
Running Total+2348.72pts
Back Wester Ross 10pts at 6.0-Won(50pts)-This is whats supposed to happen,a horse that I identiified as overpriced gets well backed(2/1 sp) and hoses up.
310 Kempton-Analysis-Ive got this down as a 3 horse race,Pickamus and Midnight Appeal are much respected but purely on value grounds,Inside Dealer looks too big a price.
Back Inside Dealer 11pts at 5.0-2nd(-11pts)(DT+39pts)-Dont know what I prefer ,a horse to run nowhere or one that jumps into the lead,kicks clear and then gets caught right near the line.It was still a good call.
Days total minus commission+37.05pts
Monthly Total-349.68pts
Running Total+2348.72pts
19th November
1215 Haydock-Analysis-Looks a 2 horse race to me,Grandouet is obviously a big danger but I think the gap in the prices between it and Domtaline is far too big.
Back Domtaline 15pts at 4.0-3rd(-15pts)
1.0 Ascot_Analysis-So many have good chances here that i cant see Ballagio being good enough
Lay Ballagio 35pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
145 Huntingdon-Analysis-A weak event and after a prep run over wrong ground and trip,Switched Off should go better today in these conditions.
Back Switched Off 9.5pts at 5.3-2nd(-9.5pts)(DT-24.5pts)
330 Huntingdon-Analysis-Carrickmines has a chance if it runs anything like its chase form but its 0/17 over hurdles,Iris`s Flyer must go close but is the right price while Lady Karabaya is still unexposed and doesnt need to improve over this trip to win.
Back Lady Karabaya 8.5pts at 5.8-UP(wasnt matched)
335 Lingfield-Analysis-Cant resist putting up Make My Dream as he ran well last time and should do better over 6f.
Back Make My Dream 6pts at 12.0-UP(-6pts)(DT-30.5pts)
Monthly Total-386.73pts
Running Total+2311.67pts
Back Domtaline 15pts at 4.0-3rd(-15pts)
1.0 Ascot_Analysis-So many have good chances here that i cant see Ballagio being good enough
Lay Ballagio 35pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
145 Huntingdon-Analysis-A weak event and after a prep run over wrong ground and trip,Switched Off should go better today in these conditions.
Back Switched Off 9.5pts at 5.3-2nd(-9.5pts)(DT-24.5pts)
330 Huntingdon-Analysis-Carrickmines has a chance if it runs anything like its chase form but its 0/17 over hurdles,Iris`s Flyer must go close but is the right price while Lady Karabaya is still unexposed and doesnt need to improve over this trip to win.
Back Lady Karabaya 8.5pts at 5.8-UP(wasnt matched)
335 Lingfield-Analysis-Cant resist putting up Make My Dream as he ran well last time and should do better over 6f.
Back Make My Dream 6pts at 12.0-UP(-6pts)(DT-30.5pts)
Monthly Total-386.73pts
Running Total+2311.67pts
Friday 18th November
250 Ascot-Analysis-Ive decided rather than lay Restezen D`amour,we should back 2 horses instead,Piraya is best fresh and has the ratings to win if it wans to,while Mr Crystal has 3 solid runs over fences that put him bag there.
Back Mr Crystal-UP 6pts at 9.0 & Piraya 5.5pts at 8.4-3rd(-11.5pts)I guess I should have done the lay,although my view that Piraya was overpriced was correct.
320 Ascot-Analysis-This feels like a really strong bet,as long as Swing Bill runs something like his most recent run and he is a pretty consistent horse,then he should take a world of beating.
Back Swing Bill 20pts at 4.5-3rd(-20pts)Horse ran well and traded at 1.5 in running but all in all,I really thought this would win.
505 Kempton-Analysis-Dont understand why Sand Owl is fav,its below 3 or 4 for me and does not even have a good draw.
Lay Sand Owl 35pts at 5.7-UP(+35pts)(DT+3.5pts)
545 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Only 3 or 4 that can be fancied,Michael`s Nook is very short,Silver Wind should go well and Violets Gift is unexposed but Fault,although a bit unreliable,ran really well last time and anything like that would win this.
Back Fault 7pts at 7.0-3rd(-7pts)(DT-3.5pts)This horse got a terrible ride,held up and got boxed in when the first 2 kicked clear then brought down the inside when it did get out.
Monthly Total-356.73pts
Running Total+2341.67pts
Back Mr Crystal-UP 6pts at 9.0 & Piraya 5.5pts at 8.4-3rd(-11.5pts)I guess I should have done the lay,although my view that Piraya was overpriced was correct.
320 Ascot-Analysis-This feels like a really strong bet,as long as Swing Bill runs something like his most recent run and he is a pretty consistent horse,then he should take a world of beating.
Back Swing Bill 20pts at 4.5-3rd(-20pts)Horse ran well and traded at 1.5 in running but all in all,I really thought this would win.
505 Kempton-Analysis-Dont understand why Sand Owl is fav,its below 3 or 4 for me and does not even have a good draw.
Lay Sand Owl 35pts at 5.7-UP(+35pts)(DT+3.5pts)
545 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Only 3 or 4 that can be fancied,Michael`s Nook is very short,Silver Wind should go well and Violets Gift is unexposed but Fault,although a bit unreliable,ran really well last time and anything like that would win this.
Back Fault 7pts at 7.0-3rd(-7pts)(DT-3.5pts)This horse got a terrible ride,held up and got boxed in when the first 2 kicked clear then brought down the inside when it did get out.
Monthly Total-356.73pts
Running Total+2341.67pts
17th November
3.0 Hereford-Analysis-Pretty open race,Lukeys Luck is unproven on ground and trip so is a dodgy fav,Hard Tackle is respected but at a big price,Runaway Harry is definitely the value.
Back Runaway Harry 11pts at 8.0-UP(-11pts)Dissappointing run,maybe the ground was softer than ideal.
Monthly Total-353.23pts
Running Total+2345.17pts
Back Runaway Harry 11pts at 8.0-UP(-11pts)Dissappointing run,maybe the ground was softer than ideal.
Monthly Total-353.23pts
Running Total+2345.17pts
16th November
330 Warwick-Analysis-Shannons Boy and Ukrainian Star are both very prominent in the betting but Hever Road has produced a series of solid runs and this trip should be ideal.
Back Hever Road 9.5pts at 5.3-Won(40.85pts)Hever Road jumped really well and relished the trip as the front 2 pulled well clear,he could easily go in again given the same circumstances.
710 Kempton_Analysis-This is a 3 horse race in my opinion.Citrus Star got a good rating on his AW debut(not at this track though) and is respected,whilst Primaeval is a very solid yardstick but Kakatosi is unbeaten on the AW and goes very well fresh,added to being top of my ratings,top jockey William Buick travels for just this one ride.
Back Kakatosi 14pts at 4.0(-14pts)(DT26.85pts)Horse tailed off and there was clearly something amiss with it.
Days total minus commission+25.50pts
Monthly Total-342.23pts
Running Total+2356.17pts
Back Hever Road 9.5pts at 5.3-Won(40.85pts)Hever Road jumped really well and relished the trip as the front 2 pulled well clear,he could easily go in again given the same circumstances.
710 Kempton_Analysis-This is a 3 horse race in my opinion.Citrus Star got a good rating on his AW debut(not at this track though) and is respected,whilst Primaeval is a very solid yardstick but Kakatosi is unbeaten on the AW and goes very well fresh,added to being top of my ratings,top jockey William Buick travels for just this one ride.
Back Kakatosi 14pts at 4.0(-14pts)(DT26.85pts)Horse tailed off and there was clearly something amiss with it.
Days total minus commission+25.50pts
Monthly Total-342.23pts
Running Total+2356.17pts
14th November
330 Plumpton -Analysis-4 runner event in which Shernaz is a strong fav and he certainly has a good chance but I have Kaycee only just behind it on my ratings and the gap in the prices is too big.
Back Kaycee 14pts at 4.0-Fell(-14pts)Mistake just as it was challenging 3 out was costly and he came down at the last when in 2nd.
250 Leicester-Anaysis-The selection has been over fences recently and returns to hurdles on a good handicap mark,it appears to have only the short priced fav to beat.
Back Rory Boy 10pts at 5.5-2nd(-10pts)(DT-24pts)Horse drifted all day so was a bad call on value grounds.It got outpaced and stayed on strongly to snatch 2nd.Certainly needs a step up in trip.
350 Leicester -Analysis-Doyenne Dream most go close if he can continue his steady improvement in ratings,the only slight niggle is that hes yet to win a race from 10 attempts.
Back Doyennes Dream 11pts at 4.5-4th(-11pts)(DT-35pts)Horse never travelled at any point and was never going to win
310 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Dark Dune looked unlucky last time but every horse considered that always start a shorter price than they should be,Castlemorris King and Sand Skier are 2 tough opponents.
Lay Dark Dune 35pts at 5.0-Won(-140pts)(DT-175pts)Suddenly just hit a very costly poor run with the lays after a really good run but will definitely scale it back now after today.
510 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Very competitive race,I like Justbookiedotcom and Woolfall Sovereign and although Roman Strait has been running ok,he struggles to get his head in front.
Lay Roman Strait 35pts at 5.5-UP(+35pts)(DT-140pts)
Monthly Total-367.73pts
Running Total+2330.67pts
Summary-A horrible day in a horrible month.
Back Kaycee 14pts at 4.0-Fell(-14pts)Mistake just as it was challenging 3 out was costly and he came down at the last when in 2nd.
250 Leicester-Anaysis-The selection has been over fences recently and returns to hurdles on a good handicap mark,it appears to have only the short priced fav to beat.
Back Rory Boy 10pts at 5.5-2nd(-10pts)(DT-24pts)Horse drifted all day so was a bad call on value grounds.It got outpaced and stayed on strongly to snatch 2nd.Certainly needs a step up in trip.
350 Leicester -Analysis-Doyenne Dream most go close if he can continue his steady improvement in ratings,the only slight niggle is that hes yet to win a race from 10 attempts.
Back Doyennes Dream 11pts at 4.5-4th(-11pts)(DT-35pts)Horse never travelled at any point and was never going to win
310 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Dark Dune looked unlucky last time but every horse considered that always start a shorter price than they should be,Castlemorris King and Sand Skier are 2 tough opponents.
Lay Dark Dune 35pts at 5.0-Won(-140pts)(DT-175pts)Suddenly just hit a very costly poor run with the lays after a really good run but will definitely scale it back now after today.
510 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Very competitive race,I like Justbookiedotcom and Woolfall Sovereign and although Roman Strait has been running ok,he struggles to get his head in front.
Lay Roman Strait 35pts at 5.5-UP(+35pts)(DT-140pts)
Monthly Total-367.73pts
Running Total+2330.67pts
Summary-A horrible day in a horrible month.
13th November
205 Fontwell-Analysis-I have this as wide open,last years 1st and 2nd in the race Warnes Way and Nedd Ludd should go well,I also think Highway Code,Cruchain and Pret a thou have chances and while Bally Legend ran quite well last time,I just cant see how hes favourite.
Lay Bally Legend 35pts at 5.7-Won(-164.5pts)Obviously a rubbish call,not only the fact that it won but it was well backed all day and went off much shorter than the advised lay.Finding it pretty tough this month but laying winners will always put you right back.Got a day off work tomorrow so hopefully can get back on track.
Monthly Total-227.73pts
Running Total+2470.67pts
Lay Bally Legend 35pts at 5.7-Won(-164.5pts)Obviously a rubbish call,not only the fact that it won but it was well backed all day and went off much shorter than the advised lay.Finding it pretty tough this month but laying winners will always put you right back.Got a day off work tomorrow so hopefully can get back on track.
Monthly Total-227.73pts
Running Total+2470.67pts
12th November
240 Uttoxeter -Analysis-If the selection can produce his steadily improving performances,he should take a lot of beating
Back Present to you 15pts at 3.4-2nd(-15pts)Horse travelled well and was given every chance but looked like he curled up a bit after the last.
315 Uttoxeter-Analysis-Morocchius hasnt run in a handicap for a while but has run some solid races in claiming and selling grade,he looks well overpriced to me.
Back Morrochius 5pts at 12.0-4th(-5pts)Wasnt put in the race until probably too late but he didnt really make the ground after the last anyway.
255 Wetherby-Analysis-Quite a competitive race with Vamizi and Wolf Moon respected but I have Court Red Handed half the price hes currently at,he should go well.
Back Court Red Handed 6pts at 10.0-Won(+54pts)-Great ride
250 Lingfield-Analysis- Pretty wide open race with Secret Assets draw in 12 a big problem despite having some good ratings,Bajan Trysts good run last time and nice draw shold see him go close.
Back Bajan Tryst 6pts at 10.0-(UP-6pts)(DT+28pts)Horse got caught up in a speed duel up front and had nothing left a furlong out.
850 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Few that can be fancied,McCool Bananas has a good chance on ratings but a poor draw,whilst Nine Rose has a chance back to a mile but has never won,so Gazboolou although not a prolific winner has been consistent enough to hopefully get his head in front here.
Back Gazboolou 7.5pts at 6.4-4th(-7.5pts)(DT+20.5pts)Shade dissappointing as the horse was bang there and then just seemed to lose his place coming around the bend and then stayed on again.
Days total minus commission+19.47pts
Monthly Total-63.23pts
Running Total+2635.17pts
Summary-Another small profit although I felt most of the selections ran well.
Back Present to you 15pts at 3.4-2nd(-15pts)Horse travelled well and was given every chance but looked like he curled up a bit after the last.
315 Uttoxeter-Analysis-Morocchius hasnt run in a handicap for a while but has run some solid races in claiming and selling grade,he looks well overpriced to me.
Back Morrochius 5pts at 12.0-4th(-5pts)Wasnt put in the race until probably too late but he didnt really make the ground after the last anyway.
255 Wetherby-Analysis-Quite a competitive race with Vamizi and Wolf Moon respected but I have Court Red Handed half the price hes currently at,he should go well.
Back Court Red Handed 6pts at 10.0-Won(+54pts)-Great ride
250 Lingfield-Analysis- Pretty wide open race with Secret Assets draw in 12 a big problem despite having some good ratings,Bajan Trysts good run last time and nice draw shold see him go close.
Back Bajan Tryst 6pts at 10.0-(UP-6pts)(DT+28pts)Horse got caught up in a speed duel up front and had nothing left a furlong out.
850 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Few that can be fancied,McCool Bananas has a good chance on ratings but a poor draw,whilst Nine Rose has a chance back to a mile but has never won,so Gazboolou although not a prolific winner has been consistent enough to hopefully get his head in front here.
Back Gazboolou 7.5pts at 6.4-4th(-7.5pts)(DT+20.5pts)Shade dissappointing as the horse was bang there and then just seemed to lose his place coming around the bend and then stayed on again.
Days total minus commission+19.47pts
Monthly Total-63.23pts
Running Total+2635.17pts
Summary-Another small profit although I felt most of the selections ran well.
11th November
320 Newcastle Back Bardolet 10pts at 5.5-4th Lay Isla Pearl Fisher 35pts at 6.0-Fell(+25pts)
345 Lingfield-Analysis-Very open race in which Appeal is a short priced fav mainly down to the trainer,who excels with these types of horses,however it is unproven on the track and over the distance whilst Nutshell although not a really solid selection ,does like this track.
Back Nutshell 5pts at 12.0-UP(-5pts)(DT+20pts)Horse was well supported but wasnt good enough.
515 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Pretty dire race and there is nothing in here that could be considered a consistent horse,London Avenue is the most unexposed horse in the field and could improve for the drop in trip.It would not surprise me if Canadian Danehill ran well back at Wolverhampton.
Back London Avenue 5pts at 12.0-UP-(-5pts)(DT+15pts)
745 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Plenty that I have as deadwood here,the selection is well drawn,in good form and likes the track,Ive got it at 3/1 so 11/2 is value.Fluctuation is the one danger if he handles the suface.
Back Dingaan 6.5pts at 6.4-UP(-6.5pts)(DT+8.5pts)Horse went off bigger than i advised and for some reason,like the previous selection ,it stayed stuck on the inside throughout which is never the place to be at Wolverhampton.
Days total minus commission+8.07
Monthly Total-82.70pts
Running Total+2615.70pts
Summary-Just a very small profit on a difficult day.
345 Lingfield-Analysis-Very open race in which Appeal is a short priced fav mainly down to the trainer,who excels with these types of horses,however it is unproven on the track and over the distance whilst Nutshell although not a really solid selection ,does like this track.
Back Nutshell 5pts at 12.0-UP(-5pts)(DT+20pts)Horse was well supported but wasnt good enough.
515 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Pretty dire race and there is nothing in here that could be considered a consistent horse,London Avenue is the most unexposed horse in the field and could improve for the drop in trip.It would not surprise me if Canadian Danehill ran well back at Wolverhampton.
Back London Avenue 5pts at 12.0-UP-(-5pts)(DT+15pts)
745 Wolverhampton-Analysis-Plenty that I have as deadwood here,the selection is well drawn,in good form and likes the track,Ive got it at 3/1 so 11/2 is value.Fluctuation is the one danger if he handles the suface.
Back Dingaan 6.5pts at 6.4-UP(-6.5pts)(DT+8.5pts)Horse went off bigger than i advised and for some reason,like the previous selection ,it stayed stuck on the inside throughout which is never the place to be at Wolverhampton.
Days total minus commission+8.07
Monthly Total-82.70pts
Running Total+2615.70pts
Summary-Just a very small profit on a difficult day.
10th November
110 Taunton Back No Woman No Cry 13.5pts at 3.65-2nd(-13.5pts)
310 Taunton Lay Seedless 35pts at 4.3-UP(+35pts)(DT+21.5pts)
Days total minus commission+20.42pts
Monthly Total-90.77pts
Running Total+2607.62pts
310 Taunton Lay Seedless 35pts at 4.3-UP(+35pts)(DT+21.5pts)
Days total minus commission+20.42pts
Monthly Total-90.77pts
Running Total+2607.62pts
9th November
450 Kempton Lay Noguchi 35pts at 6.0-UP(+35pts)
620 Kempton back Rosairlie 8pts at 6.0-UP(-8pts)(DT+27pts)
750 Kempton Back Methayel 10pts at 5.0-4th(-10pts)(DT+17pts)
Days total minus commission+16.15pts
Monthly Total+111.19pts
Running Total+2587.20pts
620 Kempton back Rosairlie 8pts at 6.0-UP(-8pts)(DT+27pts)
750 Kempton Back Methayel 10pts at 5.0-4th(-10pts)(DT+17pts)
Days total minus commission+16.15pts
Monthly Total+111.19pts
Running Total+2587.20pts
8th November
320 Huntingdon Back Right Stuff 25pts at 3.0-Won(+50pts)
Days total minus commission+47.50pts
Monthly Total-127.34pts
Running Total+2571.05pts
Days total minus commission+47.50pts
Monthly Total-127.34pts
Running Total+2571.05pts
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