310 Southwell-Lay Lemony Bay 20pts at 5.0(Lay upto 5.5)-UP(+19pts)
420 Taunton-Lay The Road Ahead 20pts at 6.0-2nd(+19pts)(DT+38pts)
Monthly Total-49pts
Running Total+7367.34pts
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
15th March
405 Carlisle-Chavoy has been in solid form most of this jumps season.It has no negatives in its profile but needs to improve again to win this on my ratings.
Russe Blanc is another whos been very consistent but is now 12Ibs higher than when it won 3 starts back.
Purcells Bridge was poor last time but is 2 from 4 around here,at its best,its a big price but the one I like is Hada Men.
Unlike many of these,this horse is unexposed over fences and is 2Ibs lower than its last winning mark over hurdles.
It looks a spring horse(Feb to April 3w-2p-10r) and the yard won this race last year.
The trainer does very well here(7 from 27 with her chasers here)
Back Hada Men 8pts at 6.5 at Corals(Accept 5.5)-5th(-8pts)
440 Carlisle-Surprise Vendor burst back to form last time when just outstayed near the finish,with the front 2 miles clear.
This drop in trip will suit and on that rating,its clearly the one to beat.
Interestingly this horse has a great record when returning to the track quickly like today(14 days or less 6w-1p-13r)
Walser,Nafaath and Snowed In are all in form but exposed.If the selection runs its race then it will beat them.
Back Surprise Vendor 13pts at 3.75 at Ladbrokes(Accept 3.5)-3rd(-13pts)(DT-21pts)
13th March
320 Cheltenham-if this race was at Kempton then Silviniaco Conti would be an absolute certainty here,as its rating it produced over xmas far exceeds anything else in this line up.
It isnt however,its at a track where there are doubts certainly.It led over the last in this race last year before wandering about to finish a close fourth.
The trainer blamed that on stomach ulcers and sometimes you have to go with them.The cheek pieces have helped and he is having a fine week as well.
The fact is this horse is the best in this race and if producing something close to that Kempton run,will go extremely close.
The bookies are clearly dangling a carrot with the prices available.
Holywell and Coneygree are the two im most concerned about.
The former is a spring horse(Feb to April 6w-1p-8r) and is 2 from 2 here(Both at the last 2 festivals).Its got to improve to take this but everything is in its favour to do so.
Coneygree is a relentless galloper and produced the best speed figure in this race when winning last time.
However the trainer is just 1 from 30 with their chasers here and i wonder if the ground has dried up too much for it.
Back Silviniaco Conti 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-UP(-9pts)
12th March
345 Towcester-Typical Oscar was progressing nicely(albeit at a lowly level) until pulling up last time.
That was on very heavy ground at Ffos Las.I would always forgive a horse a bad run there on that ground and its been given a break since.
If picking up the progression it was showing then it should go very close here.
The better ground will suit and the jockey has a 24% strike rate for the yard.
Cosway Spirit won this race last year and is 2 from 3 around here.
Its been poor this season however and the yard are a little quiet.
Nalim ran okay last time and is still lightly raced over fences but it needs to find a lot more than whats it done so far.
Back Typical Oscar 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365(Accept 4.0)-Unseated(-12pts)Very soft unseat.
145 Hexham-This is seriously weak.Theres a chance one of the handicap debutantes may step up but im hoping for a bounce back to form for Nautical Twilight.
Its been below par since easily winning 3 starts back but with the yard flying along now(5 wins from last 12 runners) hopefully it can get back to form.
Its only a pound higher than that win and has the stables conditional rider taking over, and his claim of 10Ib makes it look nicely handicapped.
Back Nautical Twilight 6pts at 9.0 at skybet(Accept 7.5)-4th(-6pts)Well backed into 7/2 but never put into the race with the jockey called in front of the stewards.You couldnt make it up really!!!!!(DT-18pts)
455 Hexham-Hopefully the ground wont dry out too much as Notonebuttwo likes a fair bit of cut but this horse looks to hold a fine chance on my ratings.
It was a little below par last time over hurdles but that was at a shorter trip and its last 3 runs at this trip,have resulted in 3 victories.
Its last chase start was 3 runs back and if repeating that effort then it will win this.
Its biggest danger is probably last years winner Samson Collonges but its 0w-1p-6r on good to soft ground and really needs the heavens to open.
Back Notonebuttwo 15pts at 3.5 at Paddys(Accept 3.0)-Fell(-15pts)Joke day in a joke month!(DT-33pts)
11th March
205 Cheltenham-There are more obvious ones in the race but I think If In Doubt is well overpriced here.
Its only had 4 runs over fences and has improved each time.It can be a bit in and out at its fences,so will need to good here but the price allows for that.
Its last run saw it post easily the best speed figure here and it will like the ground.
Don Poli represents a yard flying while Kings Palace is 4 from 5 here and is massively respected.
Back If In Doubt 4pts at 13.0 at various bookies-5th(-4pts)Ran on strongly but far too many fiddly mistakes to get competitve.
Monthly Total-24pts
Running Total+7326.34pts
10th March
320 Cheltenham-This race has a nice each way angle to it.3 bits of dead wood in just a 8 runner field and a short priced favourite.
Faugheen heads the market and is clearly the one to beat.Its very progressive but this is its first time against top flight opponents and its a short enough price for me.
On my figures,The New One has got it to do.Its not ran within 10Ibs of last seasons best so far this year and 2 miles on this ground will be a sharp enough test for it.
Hurricane Fly has won 2 Champions Hurdles and has been in fine form at its beloved Leopardstown this season but it could do with some rain and has to defy all the stats at its age to win another big one.
Jetski is a 7Ibs better horse at Cheltenham than anywhere else on my ratings.
Its had a very similar season to last year,when its ran well in Ireland but didnt quite produce its best.
Its best is produced here,where its finished 1st and 3rd at the last 2 festivals.
You would expect a good stamina test here and it looks impossible to keep out of the three.
Back Jetski 6pts each way at 6.0 at Paddys(Accept 5.5)-4th(-12pts)Pretty weak all day in the market but was there to win 2 out,Whereas last year it roared up the hill,this year it finished tamely to my usual each way finishing position of fourth
9th March
3.0 Plumpton-This isnt a strong race and May Hay stands out.
Its only had 2 starts over hurdles and finished 2nd last time behind a horse that hosed up next time up.
That suggests its opening handicap mark is generous and my ratings back that up.
Back May Hay 16pts at 3.25-4th(-16pts)Was there to win but just didnt pick up in the final stages.
320 Taunton-Unless Dormouse can regain some spark then this looks to rest between Ronaldinho and May Be Some Time.
The former drops in class and if producing its very best then it will be a very tough opponent but it isnt the most reliable.
It May Be Some Time was an eye catcher last time.Never put into the race and staying on strongly into fourth.
That was amateur ridden and you would hope Tom O`Brien will make a better job of riding it.
If he does and the horse runs its race then its definitely the value in a race lacking strength in depth.
Back It May Be Some Time 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-Won(+40pts)Finally a winner and a well backed one.
240 Stratford-Rear Admiral is a very solid fav here.
Its progressing after only 3 starts over fences and the trainer is 2 from 10 with his chasers here.
Midnight Chorister looks a solid runner as well.Conditions are ideal for it to run well.
If It be your will has shown very little in 3 novice hurdles but now makes its chase debut,straight into a handicap,for a yard that are 4 from 11 here with their chasers here.
Eastern Witness is 0 from 12 and clearly beatable.The yard arent firing on all cylinders and i would have it at least twice the price it is.
Lay Eastern Witness 20pts at 5.5-UP(+19pts After commission)Finished where it should have.
*Cancel or Trade out if Red Admiral or Midnight Chorister dont run*
330 Plumpton-The strong support for Noble Friend means SportsReport is a nice value price now.
Its still quite lightly raced over fences and is progressng.
The new favourite is 0 from 16 in its career.I respect the money but its record speaks for itself.
Back SportsReport 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365(Accept 3.75)-2nd(-12pts)Spent most of this race patting myself on the back for sending out a late selection when it had reached such a big price.10 lengths clear cruising at the 2nd last but folded up and got headed 10 yards from the line.Traded at 1.03 in running.(DT+31pts)
Monthly Total-8pts
Running Total+7342.34pts
7th March
455 Sandown-Rouge Et Blanc should go well here.Its latest run produced a fine rating that if reproduced,will win this.
The horse it finished behind,won again next time and this better ground will suit.
My only slight niggle,is that the young claimer that rides it(Thomas Garner)is at the meeting but doesnt ride it.
It seems an odd move when every extra pound carried is vital.
Saints and Sinners is on a roll but the trainer is 0 from 11 with his chasers here while Granville Island has the ratings to go close but again,represents a yard that struggle here(0 from 12)
Back Rouge Et Blanc 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies(Accept 3.5)-UP(-12pts)Didnt jump well enough.Just another in a long line of disappointing runs this month.
2.0 Sandown-Its a big field and obviously competitve but on my ratings,Aigle De La See stands out.
Its still unexposed and Nicky Henderson has won this race twice in the last 4 years.
Back Aigle De La See 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)6/1 into 7/2.Not the busiest ride you will ever see.
420 Sandown-Yorkist is probably best on softer ground and on speed figures,is the slowest of these.
It does have McCoy onboard,so will always be shorter than it should be even though it ran well below form last time.
The trainer is 1 from 29 with his runners here.
Traffic Fluide is unexposed and improving.It will go very close if continuing its progression.
Ubaltique and Seventh Sky both have the form to run big races.
Lay Yorkist 20pts at 5.3(Lay upto 5.5)-3rd(+19 after commission)(DT=)
6th March
435 Sandown-Pretty good,competitve race.
Greywell Boy has won this race,the last 2 years and will obviously be popular with McCoy aboard.
Its not been in great form this season but does tend to come good this time of year(Feb/March 3w-1p-7r)
Sands Cove won last time but struggles in this grade(Class 3 0w-2p-11r)
I would expect both Morgans Bay and Pearls Legend to run well but the value has to be the unexposed Yabadabadoo.
Its only had the 2 starts over fences and posted a fine rating and good speed figure last time out.
Back Yabadabadoo 7pts at 8.0-3rd
410 Ayr-This is a race with little strength in depth.
The obvious fav is Teddy Tee,whos slowly improving but has gone up 10Ibs for falling last time.
Bourne is well handicapped but is unreliable and 0w-0p-9r in March and April.
At a big price,Maggie Blue would have a great chance if it can reproduce its easy win over course and distance before christmas.
Its best 2 runs over hurdles have come here and the little break its just had ,could have been just what it needed.
Back Maggie Blue 5pts at 11.0 at bet365(Accept 9.0)-UP
210 Leicester-This race is full of exposed,unreliable types and you wouldnt want to take a short price about any of them.
Bebinn is the obvious one after a good run last time over course and distance.If it reproduces it then it should win but thats not guaranteed.
Killfinnan Castle and Oranger both ran okay last time but are very inconsistent and represent trainers that are 0 from 22 here combined.
Musical Wedge has done nothing this season and could well have had enough of it all but its now 20Ibs lower than its last winning mark.
This is a drop in class into a grade where its done well(Class 5 2w-2p-9r) and after toiling in heavy ground this season,it may prefer the slightly better ground.
Back Musical Wedge 4pts at 15.0 at various bookies-3rd(-16pts)
5th March
425 Southwell-Oriental Relation posted a fine rating and speed figure last time over 6 furlongs at Kempton.Only getting worn down late on after showing good speed from the start.
Being on the pace is where you need to be here and it has a good course and distance victory to its name,where it posted the same rating as last time out.
Providing it turns out fit and well,It really should take a bit of beating.I Certainly expect it to be clear favourite by the off.
Its currently sharing that with It Must Be Faith,whos been in solid form at Chelmsford.
First time out at this track for Mick Appleby is never a bad angle but its sire is 0 from 17 here and it looks very very short to me.
Back Oriental Relation 16pts at 3.25-Won(+36pts)Stuck on well.Touched 12.0 in running,which was surprising as it never lost the lead.
345 Carlisle-Its very exposed but on my figures,Molko Jack should be favourite here.
Its last 2 runs have been very solid(In the context of this weak race) and if reproducing either under ideal conditions,then it will go very close.
Grey Life is at the head of the market and is the main danger.Its short enough for a horse thats 5Ibs above its last winning mark.
Sergeant Pink would have chances at its best but has been below form on the flat and is 0w-0p-rr at this track
Ultra Du Chatelet takes a massive drop in trip.The trainer has won this race twice in the last 4 years but this horse is 0 from 5 around here.
Back Molko Jack 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)One of those where if I didnt send it,I would have probably regretted it.As it was,this horse drifted and then jumped awful and finished last!(DT+24pts)
Monthly Total-23pts
Running Total+7350.34pts
3rd March
350 Newcastle-It was all happening a little too quick for Blue Kascade last time until hitting the uphill run in at Kelso ,where it stayed on strongly to only be beaten a few lengths.
This represents a drop in class and the return to the trip of 2 starts back should see it remain competitve.
The trainer is 2 from 11 with his chasers here.
The market has Jac The Legend in as favourite after winning on its chase debut last time.Its obviously unexposed but this is a better race and the trainer is 0 from 24 in the last 14 days.
Vinny Gambini should appreciate the step up in trip but the trainer doesnt do very well here(2 from 36)
SettleoutofCourt drops in class and likes it here.Its pretty exposed now but should run its race.
Back Blue Kascade 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Pulled Up(-12pts)
450 Newcastle-Montoyas Son was on a roll the last time we saw it and if it turns up in the same form then its a serious danger to all.
However its never won after such a break as today(94 days) and I think we can get it beat.
Take it on with Categorical.This horse won this race last year and the trainer himself has won the race 3 times in the last 4 years.
The horse has won 4 times at this track and the trainer has an impressive 29% strike rate with his handicap chasers here.
Back Categorical 7pts at 7.5 at Paddys(Accept 6.5)-3rd(-7pts)
240 Southwell-Theres little doubt in my mind that Different Scenario has all the exposed runners in this field covered.
Its been in very solid form and loves it around here.Anything close to its latest rating over course and distance will make it tough to beat.
The only one im slightly concerned about is Serenity Now,who steps up makredly in trip and the sire has a 19% strike rate here.
However its going to need to improve a fair bit for it to beat the selection.
Back Different Scenario 18pts at 3.0-4th(-18pts)
3.0 Exeter-Bravo Bravo ran a decent race last time but now goes up into a grade where its never won(0 from 10).
This horse hasnt won for 2 years and yet remains on its last winning mark.The trainer is an underwhelming 1 from 31 with his hurdlers here and 1 from 51 overall.
Rugged Jack will appreciate a return to its favourite track(Exeter 2w-1p-6r) and the drop in class(Class 4 2w-3p-8r)
Brave Deed is unexposed and should have more to come.
If Somemothersdohavem handles the ground then it will go close
Lay Bravo Bravo 20pts at 5.5-Wasnt Matched(DT-37pts)Despite everything being well supported,this was an awful day!
*Cancel or Trade out if Rugged Jack,Brave Deed or Somemothersdohavem dont run*
2nd March
250 Southwell-Some pretty awful racing tomorrow but hopefully Tarabela can get the month off to a decent start.
Its latest run gives it a fair shout in a very weak race.
Its 6w-3p-12r between February and April and the trainer is 2 from 2 with his chasers here.
This horse clearly likes giving weight away to inferior rivals as a record of 4w-2p-12r when carrying over 11st8 shows.
The Last Bridge has chances on its best form but has ran 2 awful races the last twice.
Dixie Bull wouldnt be far away on its run 2 starts back but was well below par last time.
Kilcascan is consistent but has 8Ibs to find on my figures here,so the biggest danger is Hi Vic,who is very difficult to assess but the booking of Noel Fehily suggests they mean business.
Back Tarabela 10pts at 5.0 at Corals/betvictor(Accept 4.5)-4th(-10pts)Somehow finished out of the places despite dominating this race for 95% of it(Touched 1.49 in running)Weakened Tamely in the straight.
Hopefully some people saved on the danger!
28th February
2.0 Doncaster-Dresden has been progressive in its 3 chase runs so far.
The speed figure last time is far superior to anything else in this race,suggesting theres more to come.
Not only that but this will be the first time,its got decent ground over fences.Its best hurdles runs were on good or faster ground.
The jockey is 7 from 30 for the yard.
Ifandbutwhynot won last time but was all out to do so.The 2nd was beaten yesterday,so could be a vulnerable fav.
Robbie goes well here(3w-1p-8r) but is 0w-1p-11r between January and March.Im not sure about the drop in trip either.
Kings Grey could be a threat back on decent ground but lacks the progression of the selection.
Back Dresden 10pts at 5.5-Won(+35pts*1 non runner*)
250 Newbury-As long as the 7 day turnaround isnt a problem then Albert Bridge should go really close here.
This horse is improving and is 2w-1p-4r going left handed.
First Mohican would have chances at its very best while Attwaal will prefer running at this trip rather than the 2m4 its been racing at.
Back Albert Bridge 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies(Accept 4.3)-UP(-12pts)Strong in the market but ran poorly(DT+23pts)
Monthly Total+59.45pts
Running Total+7373.34pts
26th February
210 Southwell-I wouldnt say the 5 furlong strip at Southwell would be my favourite bit of course in the world but I do like the look of Gerrard`s Slip here,
This horse ran away with its maiden here on just its 2nd career start and looks well handicapped on my ratings.
The danger for me is Moon River ,who won last time but now makes its debut for Mick Appleby and this is its first visit here(Sire 16% here)
Back Gerrard`s Slip 15pts at 3.25-3rd(-15pts)Very weak just before the off(Although that didnt stop Moon River winning) and it looked 2 out that it would come and pick them up.It didnt happen,
330 Taunton-Amanto(despite its connections),looks an incredibly short price on whats its done and this looks to lie between 2 horses.
Alternatif won well last time and is improving.Its the clear danger to Heronry,whos a much bigger price.
This horse finished second last time to a horse that won again on Saturday.Its proven on heavy ground and at the trip.
Its 3w-2p-10r in fields of 9 or less and 3 from 3 during the months of February and March.
Back Heronry 9pts at 5.5 at Ladbrokes(Accept 4.5)-UP(-9pts)Well backed into 10/3 but ran a shocker.
250 Ludlow-Blameitonmyroots makes its handicap debut and should go close as an improving horse.
A Shade of Bay was below par last time but has McCoy onboard here and hes 19 from 46 when riding for Kim Bailey.
Forgiviene is another thats improving and wont be far away.
Tempest River does drop in class but has 1 win to its name in the last 4 years.
The trainer is 0 from 24 with his hurdlers here.
Lay Tempest River 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts after commission)Small consolation on a disappointing day(DT-5pts)
Monthly Total+36.45pts
Running Total+7350.34pts
25th February
240 Wincanton-I like the lightly raced Murrayana here.After winning its novice hurdle over 2m5,it dropped back to 2 miles for its handicap debut where it made a mess of the start after misbehaving beforehand and stayed on late.
That bare rating wins this race but i would expect better now its steps back up in trip.
That previous race has shown itself to be solid form with the 1st and 2nd both winning since.
Billy Two Tongues won last time but now moves up in class while The Game Is a Foot doesnt find winning easy(1 from 15)
Back Murrayana 12pts at 4.5-Won(+42pts)
515 Kempton-Boboli Gardens is up in the weights,up in class and up in trip.
None of those appear to be a positive.0w-0p-4r in this class and 0w-0p-5r at this trip.
I like the 2 class droppers against it,Hierarch and Flamborough Breeze.
Hierarch is handicapped to win for a yard that going really well.
Flamborough Breeze is 3w-1p-5r in February,2w-3p-6r when returning to the track within 14 days.
Lay Boboli Gardens 20pts at 5.5-Won(-90pts)Money came for it but the fav hasnt run its race at all(DT-48pts)
24th February
430 Catterick-Just about everything has some sort of negative here.
Billy Cuckoo returned to some sort of form last time and is well handicapped but has never won over this trip and around here,on a sharp track like this,it could easily get outpaced.
Oscatara may improve for the drop in trip but needs too while Proud Times is very inconsistent.
The obvious fav is Uno Valoroso whos been in decent form since switching to fences but is absolutely no value at the prices.
Have You Had Yours has never won in this grade but is 3 from 7 over this trip and 3w-1p-11r in fields of 9 or less.
Its the overpriced one in a trappy race.
Back Have You Had Yours 6pts at 8.0 at Bet365/Corals(Accept 7.0)-Non Runner
220 Leicester-I feel we have to find something to take on Bally Braes here.The trainer is operating at a very poor 4% strike rate currently and this horse pulled up last time.
Even on its win 2 starts back,its no good thing.
I want to take a chance on Magical Man.This horse was poor last time but that was over hurdles and its never shown much in that sphere.
Its chase runs this season have shown a steady progression in its ratings and 2 starts back ,it was about to jump into the lead at the last when it ran out.
Its clearly not straightforward but the price allows for that.The trainer is 2 from 5 around here.
Back Magical Man 5pts at 11.0 at Betfair Sportsbook)Accept 8.0)-3rd(-5pts)Sound like a broken record but hit 1.7 in running and looked like it was coming to take it up when it hit the last 2 fences hard.
Monthly Total+89.45
Running Total+7403.34
23rd February
330 Plumpton-Its previous record sounds a note of caution but Paddy the Oscar won so well last time and posted a rating thats superior to anything else in this weak race.
The explanation from connections was a noseband and a new bit brought about the return to form,so hopefully that will work again and it will take the beating if it does.
According To Them won this race last year and won last time but a record of 2 from 25 doesnt really suggest a follow up.
Ballyvoneen likes it here but pulled up last time while Possibly Flora isnt proven over this far.
Back Paddy the Oscar 14pts at 3.5-2nd(-14pts)For 95% of this race,there only looked to be one winner as Paddy jumped and travelled fantastic.The winner just wouldnt go away however and just outstayed it.
440 Plumpton-Golden Games is 1 from 21 in its career and is now 13Ibs higher than its only win.
The trainer is just 2 from 90 with his hurdlers here and I would have it around the 9/1 mark.
Cresswell Breeze is the obvious one running for us,as it won so well last time.
Little Roxy has 3 Plumpton wins and shouldnt be far away.
Lay Golden Games 20pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
21st February
220 Newcastle-Teo Vivo isnt without a chance but was beaten in a lower grade last time and the trainer is 0 from 14 with her hurdlers here.
It should be more around the 13/2 mark on my figures and I have to take it on.
Smooth Stepper is improving.Im not sure about this drop in trip but if its on the premises 2 out,it will come home strong.
Fisher represents a yard that are 6 from 15 with their hurdlers and last times below par run was at a track where its ran poorly before.
Dark Dune is reliable while Desoto Country would have strong claims on last seasons best ratings.
Sky Khan is back from a break but if ready to go,would be very competitve on last seasons best.
Lay Teo Vivo 20pts at 4.5(Lay upto 5.0)-UP(+19pts after commission)
440 Newcastle-If my ratings mean anything then Rouge Et Blanc has very strong claims here.
Last time out it was run down close home(When being in front too soon) by a horse that has won again since.
Its 2 from 4 in February and must go close.
Oscar Rock is an improver and the yard do well here but theyve been out of form most of the season.
Swing Hard is only 0w-1p-7r in this grade but ran well last time and the trainer has won this 3 times in the last 6 years.Its the main danger for me.
Back Rouge Et Blanc 12pts at 5.5-Non Runner but this horse is handicapped to win....definitely!(DT+19pts)
Monthly Total+108.45pts
Running Total+7422.34pts
20th February
410 Warwick-Qulinton came back to form last time,posting a rating that would make it very competitve here.
Its very well handicapped now and will surely take advantage soon for a yard that continue to do well.
This horse is at its best on a left handed,sharp track and thats what it gets here.
Safran De Cotte has the ratings to figure but is 0w-0p-4r at this track while Union Jack D`Ycy will love the trip and ground but has to put 2 below par efforts behind it.
The one I am most concerned about is Loughalder,who won this last year.
Its 2 from 4 at this track and 5 from 13 between January to April.However its been woeful so far this season including when a selection for us last time.
Back Qulinton 9pts at 5.0 at various bookies-Meeting Abandoned
250 Exeter-I like the look of Molo here.It makes its handicap debut and based on its latest rating and speed figure,it could have got in leniently.
David Pipe continues in good form and this should go very close.
The main danger looks to be Ross Imperiallis,who won on its handicap debut but does represent a yard who are 0 from 17 with their hurdlers here.
Back Molo 13pts at 4.0(Already Advised)-2nd(-13pts)Well backed and looked the winner(Touched 1.3 in running) but got outstayed.
520 Exeter-This is pretty open but Alberobello is unexposed over fences and if it can back up or even improve on its latest start over course and distance then it will be tough to beat.
That run produced the best rating here and easily the best speed figure.Course form around here is always a bonus.
Newton Thistle has done its winning around Towcester so far but Ive got it as the main danger as its a tough,consistent horse.
Castarnie is the fav,after its win last time on its 2nd start over fences.That was on much softer ground though and its 0w-0p-3r around here.
Moorlands Mist is another lightly raced over fences but is 0w-0p-7r going right handed and 0w-0p-3r around this track.
Back Alberobello 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies(Accept 5.0)-Pulled Up(-8pts)Horse broke a blood vessel(DT-21pts)
18th February
245 Ludlow-The form of Rascal`s last run has been well franked with wins for the 2nd and 4th placed horses since and it comes out clear top of my ratings.
The slight drop in trip should suit and I can see this kicking for home and not getting caught for a yard with a 21% strike rate here.
Handicap debutante Royal Redemption could be the main danger as its lightly raced and the trainer has a decent record here.
Back Rascal 15pts at 3.75-Won(+41.25pts)Top ride from a vastly underrated jockey.Horse hurdled superb.
345 Ludlow-Kerryhead Storm has put together 2 solid runs and shouldnt be far away but looks vulnerable to an improver.
Im hoping that will be All But Grey,whos only had the 1 run over fences and jumped well behind a good horse before weakening near the end.
It clearly likes very soft ground,so im hoping the ground will be ok and it may be better going right handed as its hurdles win came going that way round.
Eastern Witness is another possible improver after just 2 chase starts but certainly needs to while Guanciale may be better at further and the trainer is 0 from 12 here.
Carhue Princess is up in class,down in trip and not at its beloved Towcester,I cant see that winning.
Back All But Grey 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Fell(-8pts)This was tanking along and jumping well when it appeared to stumble after landing down the back straight.(DT+33.25pts)
Monthly Total+110.45pts
Running Total+7424.34pts
17th February
230 Wolves-This is one those occasions where a selection is so in and out,that the chances are it will probably run a stinker(it did last time out) but if it does turn up in good form then I cant possibly let it go unbacked at such a big price.
That horse is Comrade Bond,whos well handicapped off a mark 4Ibs lower than its last won off and has the plum draw in 1.
It ran well over a stone below its best last time at Kempton but on its previous effort over course and distance, it would hold far better chances than the current price.The excellent speed figure it clocked(The best in this race) means it cannot be ignored despite its inconsistency.
City of Angkor Wat is at the other end of the scale,with consistency being its strong point,Its clearly the most likely winner but is priced accordingly.
Back Comrade Bond 3pts at 21.0 at Various bookies-3rd(-3pts)Hampered a furlong out and just a little unlucky i thought.
325 Wetherby-I cannot for the life of me see why Vasco D`Ycy is the price it is in the race.
Its got no form on good ground,is 0w-0p-3r at this track and the trainer is 3 from 56 with his runners here.
Ive got it priced up at 10/1 so has to be a lay at the current prices.
Blackwater King will love the ground and clocked a good speed figure last time while Trust Thomas will run well and deserves to win another race.
Grey Life is 3 from 4 at this trip while Ballycool and Aye Well are runners with chances as well.
Lay Vasco D`Ycy 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-UP(+19pts after commission)Very little concern at any point.(DT+16pts)
Monthly Total+67.20pts
Running Total+7391.09pts
16th February
4.0 Carlisle-Its difficult to see Spanish Fleet not running well here.Its been in rock solid,consistent form with 3 wins from its last 4 starts.
Its 2 from 3 at this distance and 3 from 5 at this course.its the one to beat for me.
Upswing has been in poor form and this drop in distance looks an odd move but the yard are flying and its 2 from 2 here.
Conquisto is the other one in with a chance.
Back Spanish Fleet 11pts at 4.3-4th(-11pts)Weak in the market due to the strength of the subsequent winner and 2nd but still ran a great race and jumped the last tied for the lead.
15th February
205 Market Rasen-Intent and Shirocco Passion both make their handicap debuts and its possible they could improve past the reliable Grimley Girl.
However the consistency and progressive ratings of the selection suggests they may have their work cut out.
Its also possible that Grimley Girl could get in front on its own and that is never a bad thing around here.
Back Grimley Girl 12pts at 4.5-Won(+42pts)Backed like defeat was out of the question and despite hurdling sloppily,stayed on strongly
415 Market Rasen-This is quite competitve and Fromthetop looks too short to me.
It ran a stinker last time and isnt very fluent at its fences.It will lose ground on this sharp track and the trainer is just 1 from 44 around here.
Benefit in Kind must run well while Big George drops in class and is 1 from 1 around here.
Roseneath has raced here just twice and finished 1st and 2nd,it could hit the frame.
Lay Fromthetop 20pts at 6.0-Pulled Up(+19pts after commission)For some reason,this horse seems to be made favourite every time it runs.Cant jump or travel (DT+61pts)
Monthly Total+62.20pts
Running Total+7386.09pts
14th February
155 Wincanton-The very progressive Toowomba is fancied to keep its winning run going here.
Its only had just the 3 runs over fences and won 2 of them,the defeat coming first time out this season.
Ive got this horse around the 11/8 mark,so although favourite,I think the current price is fair value.
Winston Churchill was impressive last time but that was on heavy ground.
Probably more of a worry for the horse is the trainers poor record here(0 from 23).
Opening Batsmen is handicapped to win but needs to find more than of late although it does goes well here(Wincanton 2w-2p-5r)
Harrys Farewell was a selection for us last time and ran terribly.On its run 2 starts back,it wouldnt be out of this.
Back Toowomba 16pts at 3.25 at Totesport/Betfred/Ladbrokes(Accept 3.0)-4th(-16pts)Well backed but ran poorly.Always going to be Opening Batsmen that won this after finishing 2nd for us last time.
240 Ascot-Trainer Lucinda Russell doesnt venture south to this track often but when she does,its worth noting,with a record of 2 from 3 with her runners here.
Clondaw Knight represents her here and although up in class,this horse looks to be progressing fast and is unexposed over this trip.
Ive got it clear favourite of my figures.
The clear danger for me Carole`s Destrier ,whos only had 4 runs over fences and clocked a fine speed figure last time.
Back Clondaw Knight 12pts at 4.0(Already Advised)-2nd(-12pts)Jumped fantastic and looked the winner(Traded at 1.23 in running) but looked like it got outstayed by the well punted Caroles Destrier(DT-28pts)
13th February
250 Fakenham-Although facing some course specialists here,the lightly raced Canuspotit appeals to me here.
Its only had 2 runs over fences and on its latest start it posted a rating that wins this race(with a subsequent winner back in third).
With improvement likely,I would expect this horse to go close.
Obviously you never know around this specialists track but it did place over hurdles here and this in form trainer knows what horse takes to this place.
She is an excellent 15 from 44 with her chasers here and won this race 2 years ago with a similar type to the selection.
Any time Full Ov Beans turns up here,it needs maximum respect but lacks the progression of ours while another horse that does well here,Midnight Charmer is up into a grade 3 race for the first time.It is 0w-1p-11r in grade 4`s,so its difficult to see it being good enough.
Freckle Face has the ratings to figure but is 0w-1p-6r on sharp tracks and 0w-1p-7r going left handed.
Gone Too Far moves up in trip and represents top connections,it probably worries me the most.
Back Canuspotit 9pts at 5.5(Already advised)-Won(40.5pts)Hammered into 7/4 and finally,one of these well backed horses prevails.
425 Lingfield-You couldnt say Maison Brillet has much in hand at the weights but this race interests me from a distance point of view.
The favourite Top Set moves up in distance,its not bred to improve for it and is 0 from 15 anyway.You have to take it on with something.
The selection ran pretty well last time at Kempton,making late headway into third but on its last start over course and distance,it posted a rating that suggests it should be shorter than its current price.It certainly has no issues on trip or track.
Guards Chapel won well last time but that was over 3 furlongs further and ive got its best ratings at that trip.
Takeitfromalady also went well last time but is another that might prefer further.
Back Maison Brillet 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies-2nd(-7pts)Ironically beat what I thought were the dangers but couldnt get to the front running winner.(DT+33.5pts)
455 Lingfield-Chelwood Gate is rock solid here and gets the added bonus of George Baker riding it for the first time,it must go well.
Embankment also looks sure to run well while Flamborough Breeze will appreciate the return to a mile and I dont think Lindart is out of it either.
Seven Lucky Seven has a career strike rate of 1 from 20.It moves up into a class 5 race where its record is 0w-0p-8r and tries its luck at a mile to try and signal some improvement.Its sire has just a 4% strike rate at the trip with its progeny.
Lay Seven Lucky Seven 20pts at 5.5(lay upto 6.0)-UP(+19pts after commission)(DT+52.50pts)
*Cancel or Trade out if Chelwood Gate or Embankment dont run*
Monthly Total+29.20pts
Running Total+7353.09pts
12th February
230 Kelso-Whatever the outcome here,we have got some serious value here already after all the early money since I sent it out.
You have to respect the improving The Last Samurai and Ballyben has been in decent form while Whats Up Woody isnt out of it.
The early prices pointed towards the progressive Blue Kascade.
This horse has had only 4 races over fences and wouldve gone very close to winning last time but for a bad mistake 2 out.
That rating gives it serious chances and it goes well fresh(80 days+ 2w-0p-5r)
Back Blue Kascade 9pts at 8.0(Already advised)-4th(-9pts)Hammered into 11/4 but dont know what to make of this run at all? Ran on into 4th late.....very Late!
310 Leicester-If Artifice Sivola can learn to settle then it could turn into a decent 2 mile chaser but it runs with the choke out and often weakens late on.
I like Take the Crown,who has posted 4 solid efforts over fences and will appreciate the better ground here.
The trainer is 3 from 11 here and the jockey has a 24% strike rate for this yard.
When racing between January to March its 2w-1p-4r and its 3w-2p-12r when returning to the track within 28 days.
Henri De Boistron represents a yard that do well here but its needs to seriously improve.
Back Take the Crown 8pts at 6.0(Already Advised)-2nd(-8pts)Halved in price then touched 1.26 in running before getting nailed 3 strides from the line.Unbelievable and sums up the recent run.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total-23.2pts
Running Total+7300.59pts
11th February
255 Chepstow-Many unexposed horses in here,Buffin Island and Kamool being the pick of them while The Drinkymeister heads up the more exposed horses.
Milanisi Boy is going to need to find more to deal with those mentioned.
The trainer is only 1 from 13 here and the jockey/trainer combo a less than impressive 0 from 8.
Lay Milanisi Boy 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts)
405 Chepstow-Very competitve race.Pitter Patter came down at thelast when last seen but even on that good run,its got it to do on my ratings.
Its got stamina to prove and the trainer is only 1 from 27 here.
There are numerous horses that should run well,Lights of Broadway,Still Believing and Keishi Pearl are the ones i most favour.
Lay Pitter Patter 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts(DT+38 after commission)
Monthly Total-6.2pts
Running Total+7317.59pts
10th February
245 Ayr-A race that contains a few stepping up in trip.One of which is the selection,Gilnockie.
This horses ratings have improved as its gradually stepped up in distance and now makes its handicap debut ,over 3 miles for the first time.
Its sire Kayf Tara won the Ascot Gold Cup on the flat over 2m4f,so you would expect this trip to really suit this horse.
Its latest rating over 2m4f suggests it could be on a decent mark and I would have it right at the front of the market.
Teddy Tee,although improving,is going to have to find plenty of improvement to win this,on my figures.
One For Arthur ,has a similar profile to the selection and is respected along with Bryden Boy and Turtle Cask.
Back Gilnockie 8pts at 5.5 at various bookies(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-8pts)
420 Ayr-Habbie Simpson,just found the ground and track against it,when a selection for us 25 days ago.
On this softer ground,going left handed(5w-4p-15r) and galloping track(3w-1p-7r on such tracks) I would expect a good run.
Its 2 from 2 in February and the trainer is 9 from 31 with her chasers here.
The booking of McCoy on Yes Tom,suggests a big run is expected but the market expects that already.
Sa Suffit is the only other horse in the race with any kind of recent form but is 12 now.
Back Habbie Simpson 8pts at 6.0 at bet365/Corals(Accept 4.5)-UP(-8pts)Jumped awful and the poor month continues.(DT-16pts)
7th February
225 Newbury-Houblon Des Obeaux heads my ratings and its 2 runs this season,are rock solid form.
First time out it finished 2nd in the Hennesey behind Many Clouds(Giving it weight),that horse has come out and won a Gold Cup trial since then it finished just behind The Young Master,which has been the big top handicap improver all season.
A reproduction of either run would make it tough to beat.
Its 5w-3p-14r on galloping tracks like this.
Harry Topper won this last year but has pulled up in 2 runs since,so has questions to answer.
Coneygree is improving and could get an easy lead,I would make it the main danger.
Unioniste represents Paul Nicholls,who has won this race 5 times in the last 9 years.I respect all that but its got nearly a stone to find on my figures.
Back Houblon Des Obeaux 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-12pts)Pretty sure its ran its race but Coneygree has just improved past it ,unfortunately
915 Wolves-This is a 2 horse race and therefore,the bigger price gets the call.
That horse is Moulin Rouge,whos been in fine form since joining this yard.
Its proven here and the drop back in trip to the distance it won at 2 starts back,is ideal.
The danger is Mr Soprano,who showed its best form yet,over shorter and at Chelmsford last time.
It should be suited by the extra distance and its sire has a fair record here.
Back Moulin Rouge 12pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-Won(+37.8*1 non runner*)Got a break at last.Travelled well and won easy(DT+25.8pts)
Monthly Total-29.20pts
Running Total+7294.59pts
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