20th April

145 Kempton-Saffron Prince looks too short for me here.

Its best figures are all on softer ground and even they leave 7Ibs behind the principals here,added to that the stable are 0 from 21 here and its got it all to do.

Mr Lando is very consistent and looks certain to run well while Dormouse is competitvely weighted and should run its race.

On one of its good days,The Green Ogre would go close.

Lay Saffron Prince 20pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt matched)

*Cancel or Trade out if Mr Lando or Dormouse dont run*

430 Kempton-After staying on at the end of its latest 2 mile races,One Lucky Lady should appreciate moving back up to this trip and good ground.

The trainer is 23% with his hurdlers here,they won the race last year and its 3 from 6 on sharp tracks like this.

Top Cat Henry should go well but is 0w-0p-6r in April and May while Long Lunch wouldnt be far away on its run,2 starts back.

Back One Lucky Lady 12pts at 4.3 at various bookies-Won(+48pts *Paid out at BOG*)Nico De Bonville showed why hes the most improved jockey around with a typical never say die ride.

Monthly Total+55.5pts

Running Total+7647.44pts

18th April

125 Ayr-Im very surprised The Last Samurai isnt clear favourite here.Its in my tissue at 7/4.

Its not stopped improving,is 1 from 1 here and is 4w-1p-6r in fields of 9 or less.

Puffin Billy`s best form is at Ascot and has a tough task giving the weight away and while Runswick Royal is gradually improving,its going to need to so again to beat the selection.

Back The Last Samurai 13pts at 3.75 at various bookies-2nd(-13pts)Beaten at 1.01 in running,which says it all really.Unbelievable to watch.

310 Ayr-Strongpoint has got its work cut out here on my figures.

Its got 10Ibs to find..is 0w-1p-7r going left handed and 0w-1p-8r when returning to the track after 29 days or more.

Theres a strong field against it.Yorkist ran well last time and achieved a fine rating,providing the ground isnt too quick,it will outrun its price.

La Bacardy won this race last year and returns to the track after an absence ,making its debut for the bang in form Dan Skelton yard.It Will go close.

Lay Strongpoint 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts)(DT+6pts)

*Cancel or Trade out If La Bacardy or Yorkist dont run*

Monthly Total+7.5pts

Running Total+7599.44pts

17th April

335 Ayr-Pius Jamais looks a shade vulnerable here and is a favourite to take on despite the yard having won this race last year.

On my figures this horse looks better at further and on softer ground plus its 0w-0p-5r during April.

I like Aye Well against it.This horse has a nice consistent profile and has won around here.

Its reunited with James Reveley whos 2 from 3 on it and is 3w-1p-7r in small fields like this.

Back Aye Well 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies(Accept 4.5)-Won(+40pts)Well backed and hosed up

240 Fontwell-Fruity O`Rooney has won this race the last 2 years and willl clearly have been aimed at it again.

Although getting on now,these are its optimum conditions..Fontwell(5w-2p-13r)...2m6f(5w-2p-9r) and has 4 wins on good ground.

Opening Batsmen is a big danger but unless Valco De Touzaine improves then there is a lot of deadwood here.

Back Fruity O`Rooney 10pts at 5.0 at various Bookies-4th(-10pts)

555 Southwell-In a very weak race,To The Sky really should be favourite for me.

Its easily the most consistent in the field and loves this ground.The jockey is 5 from 15 for the yard.

If Tri Nations produced its best it would go close but its incredibly inconsistent these days so last time out winner,Moonlight Maggie is probably the main danger but that is up in class where its 0w-0p-4r.

B ack To The Sky 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Nicely supported into 9/4 but ran flat.(DT+18pts)

745 Bath-Lady Bayside makes its seasonal debut here and its hard to see it running up to its very best,which it will need to be competitve on my ratings.

After a break of 41 days or more away from the track,its got a record of 0w-0p-7r,not only that its 0w-1p-4 over this trip and the trainer hasnt had a horse place this season.

Palerma is still lightly raced and should be capable of better this season while Ela Goog La Mou represents a trainer that has won with 2 of his 3 horses hes sent on the long journey here.

Lay Lady Bayside 20pts at 5.5-UP(+19pts After commission)(DT+37pts)

Monthly Total+1.5pts

Running Total+7591.94pts

16th April

350 Cheltenham-Foxbridge has had a fine season,winning 3 times before possibly finding the trip too far last time.

On its best form over fences so far(All on soft ground) it holds strong claims but i wonder if its first time on good ground(Won its only hurdle race on good ground) will unlock more improvement.

Its 4 from 4 in fields of 9 or less like this and is 4w-0p-6r when returning to the track within 40 days.

Ive got Sire Collonges needing to improve but the one im worried about is Lamb or Cod.

Its been in no sort of form but may bounce back on this better ground and its well handicapped for a yard that have won this race twice in recent seasons.

Back Foxbridge 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies.-5th(-10pts)Once again the main danger wins.

720 Chelmsford-Mullionheir will take a bit of beating here after a fine win over course and distance last time.

Lady Atlas`s best ratings have come at this trip and it should follow it home.

Lolita makes its handicap debut and the sire is 2 from 6 with its runners here.

St Pauls Square is 0w-0p-5r over this trip and the sire is 0 from 12 with its runners here so far.

Its 0 from 12 in its career and lacks the progression of some of its rivals.

Lay St pauls Square 20pts at 6.0-Cancelled due to non runners

15th April

350 Cheltenham-Allez Vic has only had just 4 starts over fences and should be capable of more.

Any more progression would see it being a major force here and its last speed figure suggests it could easily improve.

The trip and ground are perfect and it should be thereabouts at a very nice price.

Fox Appeal drops in class but looks better on softer ground while Pepite Rose tends to run its best races at Newbury.

Galway Jack looks sure to run well although this is a rise in class and Anay Turge although a little in and out of late has got 2 course wins to its name.

Back Allez Vic 6pts at 10.0 at Bet365(Accept 8.0)-UP(-6pts)Just too many mistakes and having Anay Turge win at 12/1 doesnt make things easier.

14th April

320 Southwell-Spitfire won this race last year and comes into form at this time of the year(April/May 4w-2p-13r)

Its at its best around this track and on its rating over course and distance,2 starts back,it should be clear favourite.

The clear danger is Abi Scarlett,who also goes well here and is 3w-1p-4r in sellers.

Back Spitfire 13pts at 3.75 at Paddys(Accept 3.25)-Won(+25pts Rule 4)

420 Carlisle-Unless Heavenly Brook proves better handicapped in the UK than it does in Ireland then this looks a 3 horse race.

The interesting thing about that is that 2 of the 3 tend to prefer placing rather than winning and that should swing things in favour Barely Legal.

This horse has only had 4 starts over fences and has shown good progressive form(Beat a subsequent Dual winner last time)

Its 2 from 3 going right handed and looks sure to go close.

Trust Thomas tends to cruise through its races and find very little off the bridle and the same can be said for Vasco D`Ycy.

Im sure they will be there 2 out but what they do from that point is finish their races weakly,lets hope its the same here.

Back Barely Legal 12pts at 4.5 at corals(Accept 4.0)-Won(+42pts)(DT+67pts)

Monthly Total-19.5pts

Running Total+7570.94pts

13th April

3.0 Kelso-This step up in trip looks sure to suit Lowcarr Motion,whos been staying on after getting outpaced in its races.

Its last rating gives it a sound chance anyway but I would expect better with the more distance in its favour.

Looking Well is favourite but looks on a tough enough opening mark to me on its handicap debut.

Back Lowcarr Motion 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-5th(-7pts)Every chance and beaten 3 lengths but didnt come home like i hoped it would.

430 Kelso-Beeves looks the most likely winner here but it is up in class and theres a big question mark over the stables horses at present.

Big Sound is consistent but looks far shorter than id have it while Full Jack won over hurdles last time but is just 1 from 27 over fences.

Lord Brendy should run well but doesnt win so I can see the veteran Isla Pearl Fisher running well.

This is a drop in class for it,its got 3 course wins to its name...is 4w-1p-9r when returning to the track within 28 days and 5w-1p-12r in this grade.

Back Isla Pearl Fisher 3pts each way at 17.0 at various bookies-Pulled Up(-6pts)Never going at any stage.

5.0 Kelso-It seems a little odd that Sultana Belle turned in a career best performance(on my ratings) on its only start over fences a year ago and since,has only ran over hurdles.

That run though,gives it strong claims here and after a decent run over hurdles last time,it appears to be in decent form.

Spirit Oscar has been running okay but seems better on softer grounf.

Jewellery would have chances with conditions ideal but does return after an absence.

Nosey Box has only had 2 chase starts but pulled up last time and wants softer ground while Amethyst Rose has been in good form but is 0w-0p-4r at the track and 0w-1p-7r in this grade.

B ack Sultana Belle 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies  -3rd(-16pts)Another really poor day!(DT-29pts)

11th April

205 Aintree-Top of my ratings and clear on speed figures,Gods Own sets a good standard here and I would have it around the 5/4 mark.

4w-2p-9r in small fields like this and 4w-1p-7r on todays ground,it would be a surprise if it wasnt there at the death.

Traffic Fluide is improving and is the main danger for me although the trainer is 0 from 17 with his chasers here.

Back Gods Own 18pts at 3.0 at Stan James-2nd(-18pts)Not a great ride to be honest.Stayed on but the winner had got first run

155 Chepstow-This race is between class dropper Bincombe and the very consistent Take The Crown.

The former has encountered 2m4f on fast ground 3 times in its chase career and won them all while the latter just doesnt seem to know how to run a bad race and 1 from 1 at the track.

Sunny Ledgend has never ever managed to win a handicap and I doubt it will here.

Its much better on soft ground and is 0w-0p-10r between March and May.

Lay Sunny Ledgend 20pts at 6.0-3rd(+19pts A/C)

520 Lingfield-Despite winning last time,Toymaker looks far too short to me here.

Its not been at its best in 2 starts at Lingfield and now steps up to a trip where its 0w-0p-6r at.

Its difficult to see it improving that record as its sire is 0 from 38 at the trip.

Ninety Minutes is top rated on its win last time at Wolverhampton but I expect a big run from Tilstarr,who drops into a grade where its 1w-1p-2r and has 2 course wins to its name.

Munsarim is always a force around here(6 course wins) and in this grade(4 from 12),it shouldnt be far away.

Lay Toymaker 20pts at 6.0-3rd(+19pts A/C)(DT+20pts)

10th April

215 Aintree-Glingerburn is massively progressive and its last rating means all this field have improvement to find to match it and thats without the selection continuing its upward curve.

It also hosts the best speed figure on show and the flat track and decent pace should see it running its race and that should be good enough.

B ack Glingerburn 18pts at 3.0 at various bookies-4th(-18pts)Just a very flat run

325 Aintree-Top race but Al Ferof looks overpriced to me.

At its best,it has the best ratings here and to be at its best,it needs to arrive at the track fresh(80 days+ 4w-1p-6r),it gets that here after a 105 day break.

I expect a big run from a yard that had a fine first day at the meeting.

Champagne Fever looks too short to me,its best form is on soft ground and Willie Mullins doesnt target this meeting like he does Cheltenham.

Don Cossack looks a much bigger danger to me.

Back Al Ferof 7pts at 7.5 at Paddys(Accept 6.0)-UP(-7pts)Another disappointing run.

230 Fontwell-Lots of deadwood here and you can see why Unknown Legend is favourite but so far its best ratings have been at Fakenham and it could possibly be vulnerable away from that venue.

I like My Silver Cloud against it.It raced from out of the handicap last time and competes off its correct mark here.That last rating is the best on show here,

I also feel todays longer trip will be in its favour and after just 7 starts,it may just be finding its feet.

Back My Silver Cloud 12pts at 4.5 at Betfair Sportsbook(Accept 3.5)-Won(+42pts)Hammered into 7/4 and got the job done.(DT+17pts)

450 Fontwell-When we last saw Ifyousayso,it was in desperate form and theres no guarantee it will be any different here but I feel theres reasons to expect much better.

First of all,its left its last yard and joined the David Bridgwater stable and it wouldnt be the first horse theyve sweetened up.

It drops down into a grade where its 3w-0p-4r...is 2 from 3 on good ground....After a break of 80 days or more its 2w-0p-4r and the yard are 8 from 36 with their handicap chasers here.

Obviously with this sort of horse,you would like to see some of support because if they can get it back to somewhere near its best then its different class to this field.

Crazy Jack is the obvious danger.

Back Ifyousayso 6pts at 7.5 at Paddys(Accept 6.0)-UP(-6pts)Well backed but didnt jump very well(DT+11pts)

Monthly Total-77.5

Running Total+7512.94pts

9th April

325 Aintree-This race interests me because of the stamina doubts over several of the horses.

Jezki and Arctic Fire have the best form but at shorter.The former has won at the trip but that wasnt nowhere near the level of this race.

Given the prices,id prefer to look for something at a price and the one that appeals is Volnay De Thaix.

On the book,it cant beat Rock on Ruby on their running at Cheltenham,just before christmas but this is a different track and a different day. 

The jockey and trainer are flying at present and im hoping this horse is up there forcing the pace to expose any stamina doubts in the opposition.

Back Volnay De Thaix 4pts at 17.0 at Paddys(Accept 13.0)-3rd(-4pts)Plenty of money for it and ran really well but ulitmately just not good enough.

305 Taunton-Echo Foxtrot is 0 from 12 so far in its career and represents a trainer that is 0 from 24 with her hurdlers here.

Its clearly very beatable and shouldnt be favourite on my figures.

Henry Oliver makes its debut for an in form trainer and has a good jockey booking in Aiden Coleman.

Ofcoursewecan could show more as its still lightly raced,up in trip and on better ground.

I would expect Exemplary to run well back on fast ground while Shot in the Dark drops in grade and must go close.

Lay Echo Foxtrot 20pts at 6.0-3rd(Wasnt Matched)

8th April

420 Catterick-Powerful Presence has become very well handicapped now and has to be of interest here after hinting a revival was close last time.

This is its first in a class 5 since 2011 and with a record in this grade of 2w-1p-3r ,it has to be competitive,particularly at a track where its boasts form figures of 2-2-1-2-1-1.

Back Powerful Presence 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies(Accept 4.0)-UP(-10pts)Plenty of money for it but ran flat.

715 Kempton-Akavit won well last time at Wolverhampton over a shorter trip but looks pretty short to me considering its sire is 0 from 17 at this track and has never sired a horse that has won over this trip.

It also got a very easy lead last time and you would expect the other jockeys to be more wise to it this time.

I would expect Total Demolition to be a big runner here while That Man O Mine would go very close,on its run  2 starts back

Lay Akavit 20pts at 4.5(Lay upto 5.5)-Won(-70pts)Too many didnt run their race here but at the end of the day,the above analysis was flawed!Pretty Hopeless Day!(DT-80pts)

6th April

310 Market Rasen-This looks a trappy race but im going to take a chance on Oscatara.

This horse produced a career best over fences last time and on that rating,its chance is much better than the current odds suggest.

The yard have had an in and out season but have a good 9 from 45 record here with their chasers.

Crazy Jack heads the market and its fair to say,it has to produce a lot more on my figures,than its shown so far.

Back Oscatara 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365(Accept 5.5)-Fell(-7pts)Just creeping into when the jockey got unseated.

420 Market Rasen-I like the angle of a horse having its first run for trainer Dan Skelton,as is the case with Long House Hall.

On its best ratings in Ireland last time,it would have a decent chance but I would expect this trainer to improve this horse.

Crinkle Crags is improving but is tight enough at the head of the market.

Back Long House Hall 7pts at 7.5-Won(+45.5pts)Won nicely

4.0 Plumpton-Amazingly this class 3 handicap contains not a single horse that has won in this grade before.

That suggests to me,one of the more unexposed types should prevail and Pure Oxygen appeals most.

This horse makes its handicap debut for a trainer with an incredible 5 wins from just 6 winners at this track.

Tom Cannon takes the ride which must be significant as he always rides for Noble Friends trainer but doesnt here.

Back Pure Oxygen 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365/skybet-UP(-12pts)

540 Plumpton-Macabees is incredibly inconsistent and cannot be relied upon.

It ran well last time at Fontwell but has a very poor record(Plumpton 0w-0p-12r) here and in general is 0w-1p-19r going left handed.

Im very happy to take it on despite this being a weak race

Sweet Boy Vic should run well but its regular pilot rides the stables other horse,Onwiththeparty and that horse could improve on this ground.

Dreamisi steps up in trip for its handicap debut and Sam Twiston Davies looks a significant booking.

Lay Macabees 20pts at 6.0-Cancelled

330 Huntingdon-It hasnt had that many chances but Mercoeur looks up against it here.

It needs to find a lot more than its shown to win off this mark and for a trainer with some very good strike rates elsewhere,he is 0 from 24 with his hurdlers at this track.

Lucky Jim is lightly raced and looks very solid.

Sea the Springs makes its handicap debut and is probably the reason Harry Skelton is at this meeting.

Lay Mercoeur 20pts at 6.0-2nd(+19pts)(DT+45.5pts)

Monthly Total-8.5pts

Running Total+7581.94pts

4th April

330 Carlisle-A short price for No Deal but ive got it even shorter.

Its only had the 2 starts over fences and has a nice progressive look.

It clearly likes a break between its races(41 days+ 3w-1p-5r) and won its bumper,on its only start here.

Viable opposition is thin on the ground,And the Man has only completed one of its last 6 starts and is better at Ayr while Carlos Fandango has a chance at its best but prefers to let something beat it.

Back No Deal 25pts at 2.5 at betfair sportsbook(Accept 2.25)-3rd(-25pts)Never really travelling but rallied and just beaten 1/2 a length.

3.0 Newton Abbot-This is a tight race and although up in class,Starkie appeals as a bit of value here.

Its got no great record fresh ,so it was a very encouraging seasonal debut last time(on its first run for this yard) and that bare rating gives it a shout but hopefully it should improve on that.

Its profile offers a lot of hope it will.In fields of 9 or less(3w-2p-7r)...Returning to the track within 40 days or less 3w-1p-5r and 4w-2p-9r over todays distance.

Brick Red,Grey Gold and Ulck Du Lin have all got the ratings to go close.

Back Starkie 7pts at 8.0 at Betfair sportsbook(Accept 6.0)-2nd(-7pts)Well backed but basically was out of its ground when the outsider of the whole field kicked clear.Another one that got away I feel!

125 Haydock-Hopefully the ground wont deteriorate too much as Village Vic wouldnt want it bottomless but this horse has a much better chance the current odds suggest.

It latest run puts it clear top rated and it looks to be still improving,as that speed figure is miles clear of anything else in this race.

This horse is a 2/1 chance on my tissue.

Just Cameron is the main danger for me,as its very progressive but will need a serious performance,giving 15Ibs to the selection.

Back Village Vic 11pts at 5.0 at various bookies(Accept 4.3)-Pulled Up(-11pts)Backed from 4/1 into 9/4 and pulled up after jumping badly left throughout.Unbelievably Bad!

All 3 selections were pinpointed as being the wrong price and they duly shortened but no reward.

(DT-43pts)

3rd April

315 Lingfield-2 years ago,Sovereign Debt was running in group races and since returning to the track this season(For a different stable) has shown excellent progressive ratings.

3 starts back,on its return from well over a year off,it beaten under a length,over course and distance by Mindurownbusiness.

It now meets that rival,10Ibs better off and with also the benefit of having a few runs under its belt.

If it can match any of its 3 runs this season,then it will take a bit of beating.

Back Soveriegn Debt 12pts at 4.3 at Betfair sportsbook(Accept 3.75)-2nd(-12pts)Pretty soul destroying stuff watching this.The reason that Ryan Moore is the jockey he is and Adrian Nicholls never will be!

Monthly Total-11pts

Running Total+7579.44pts

2nd April

4.0 Ludlow-Its A Steal is still lightly raced over fences and although it didnt run badly last time over 3 miles,I would expect better back at a trip when its raced twice over fences and won both times.

It boasts course and distance winning form and with the ground ideal,I would expect a big run.

Filbert has won here but looks an awful price to me.This is a drop in class for it but it will need a career best to take this.

Wilton Milan is pretty consistent but has a habit of finding one too good while this trip is further than Lucky Landing has ever won over.

Workbench will like the ground but is the right price for me.

Back Its A Steal 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies(Accept 4.5) -2nd(-10pts)Not the jockeys finest hour,I would say.

1st April

210 Towcester-Scorpions Sting produced a solid rating last time when making its handicap debut.

It finished behind a subsequent dual winner and if reproducing that run then it must go close.

Mighty Mambo boasts course and distance winning form and thats a big asset here but despite this,I dont think it should be as short as it is.

Crouching Harry is the only other horse I see in with a chance.

Back Scorpions Sting 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365(Accept 3.75)-2nd(-12pts)Very strong in the market,supported into 2/1 but pretty weak oncourse and ran a very laboured race.

220 Wincanton-No surprise the money has come for Jimmy the Jetplane,as this horse has an outstanding chance.

Its clear on my ratings and hails from a bang in form yard.

The jockey is 11 from 47 for this yard.

It wants this good ground and is 2 from 2 at this track.It must take all the beating.

Man Of Leisure at its very best could hit the frame but it appears very in and out these days.

Back Jimmy The Jetplane 20pts at 3.0-Won(+32pts *Rule 4)Much harder than I was expecting but it got there.

320 Wincanton-Wide open race and I like a couple against the field.

Irish Raider Redwood Bay went off favourite last time,when returning after an absence.That run gives it a decent shout but the drop back in trip to 2 miles could bring about more improvement.

Lukes Hill best rating from last season came over 2 miles on good ground and so far this season,its been either running over further or on soft ground,its possible these ideal conditions,could see it bounce back.

Im happy to find out at the prices.

Back Redwood Bay 6pts at 8.0 at Corals/betfair sportsbook-UP(-6pts)Backed into fav but ran poorly

Back Lukes Hill 3pts at 17.0 at various bookies-3rd(-3pts)(DT+11pts)

Running Total+7591.44pts

31st March

340 Exeter-Royal Native has only had 2 starts over fences and although it pulled up last time,that was on unsuitably heavy ground.

The previous effort on its chase debut wasnt bad but that was also on very soft ground.

Im hoping we will see a much better effort on good ground and at a track that it finished 1st and 2nd at from just 3 starts over hurdles.

The trainer is 5 from 19 with his chasers here.

Coolking is favourite and its anybodys guess whether it will turn out after winning yesterday but it had a pretty hard race.

Roll the Dice gets the blinkers first time but needs them to liven it up as its pretty badly handicapped now after a series of placed efforts.

Mighty Mobb is back over fences after 2 fairly poor spins over hurdles but looks to need softer ground.

On Trend has been in no form but I would be worried if the money came for it.

Its 1 from 1 here and is dropped down into a grade where its 2w-2p-4r.

Back Royal Native 9pts at 5.5 at Hills(Accept 5.0)-Won(+32.4pts*1 non runner*)

Monthly Total+162.70pts

Running Total+7580.44pts

30th March

325 Warwick-Seventh Sky appeals as the value here.

Its been in decent form all season and while theres always the worry,this time of year of of it being one run too many,it has to be backed at the prices.

If it brings its best form to the race then its got a serious chance here although i wouldnt want the ground to turn heavy.

Horizontal Speed is favourite but looks very,very short to me based on my ratings.

Back Seventh Sky 7pts at 7.0-Won(+42pts)I wish every horse wanted it like this one does.This was its 17th run of the season but it jumped superb and just killed them all off.

Monthly Total+130.3pts

Running Total+7548.04pts

29th March

340 Ascot-Top Gamble looks to have its work cut out here,giving weight away to its rivals,on ground faster than ideal.

The horse has been fairly consistent but looks very beatable on my ratings.

The trainer is 0 from 8 with his chasers here.

Uni Ace drops in trip,which may suit and McCoy has a 39% strike rate for the yard while Royal Regatta is another that went over too far last time and will be a force back in trip.

Chris Pea Green is progressive and shouldnt be far away.Crookstown has a fine record going right handed(rw-2p-9r) and is a touch overpriced.

Lay Top Gamble 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts after commission)

Monthly Total+88.30pts

Running Total+7506.04pts

28th March

430 Uttoxeter-River Purple has a less than impressive record of 0w-0p-7r when returning after 80 days or more,so it was encouraging to see it finish 3rd of 7th(beaten 4 lengths) when it returned to the track after an absence last time.

That bare rating gives it a decent chance but the return to this track(Uttoxeter 3w-3p-11r) and the recent run gives me hope it can at least match last seasons best.If it does,it must go close.

Its only 1Ib higher than its last winning mark.

Safari Journey won last time out at shorter but isnt as good at this trip and the sire has a just a 3% strike rate over this distance.

Ballbogey,Pensnett Bay and Spanish Arch all have chances at their best but were well below par last time out.

Back River Purple 12pts at 4.5-4th(-12pts)Strong in the morning market but weak just before the off.Touched 1.88 in running as it looked to be cruising but just fell in a hole in the straight.

The well backed winner had form figures this season of P-P(what chance have you got?) 

27th March

335 Wetherby-Some really poor racing tomorrow doesnt make things easy but maybe Ebazan on its first run for Brian Ellison,could run well at a price.

Im always keen on horses that have been running in Ireland then come over here as I always feel they are favourably handicapped in the UK.

Its back from a break,so its possible it wont be ready but at its best,it would go very close here.Im happy to find out at the price.

Mad For Road has posted solid ratings and is the right favourite.However the fact the bookies have it around the 7/2 mark,shows that they feel this awkward customer could be beaten.

It needs to do most of its work on the bridle and hangs badly under pressure.

Back Ebazan 5pts at 11.0 at various bookies(Accept 9.0)-Pulled Up(-5pts)

Monthly Total+81.3pts

Running Total+7499.04pts

26th March

305 Newbury-Ugolin De Beaumont is slowly progressing and steps into handicap debut here.

On my figures,it looks to have a stiff enough mark and will need a big leap forwards to compete with the principals.

The trainer is just 1 from 46 with his hurdlers here.

Chosen Well also moves into handicap company but looks nicely weighted and must run well.

Katgary drops in class and is respected while Nicky Hendersons pair of runners(Tistory and Megalypos) return from absences but at their best would go close,I doubt they will want for fitness

Lay Ugolin De Beaumont 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts)Majority of it matched early then filled in in play.

240 Ffos Las-Tambura,stepped up to 3 miles for the first time,last time out and produced a rating that is 5Ibs clear of this field.

Its 1 from 1 at this track,loves soft ground and is 3w-0p-6r in fields of 9 or less like today.

Belmount is progressing and looks the main danger but has a large weight to carry.

Back Tambura 13pts at 3.75 at Hills/Corals-2nd(-13pts)I would have liked the rider to have started pushing before the winner cruised past into a 5 length lead.

315 Ffos Las-For me,the prices of Paddy The Oscar and Red Devil Lads are the wrong way round.

The latter won well last time,has won here and the jockey is an impressive 7 from 20 when riding for this yard.

Theres no doubt it will run well but the top rated Paddy The Oscar really should be favourite.

Its superb jumping means its always a force in these races,its won its last 2 starts at this distance and is 2 from 3 in March.

Crusing Bye(A selection for us last time out) has a chance on my figures but looked like a horse that was never going to go past last time(Famous last words) and this is a much better race in a higher class.

Back Paddy The Oscar 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Incredibly weak in the betting and for whatever reason,it weakened badly.(DT-6pts)

25th March

310 Newton Abbot-I like Velator here.

This horse ran well last time(Posting the best rating here) and returns to this track where its 1 from 1 at.

Between February and April its 4w-2p-9r and gets the excellent claimer Sean Bowen up for the first time.

His 5Ib allowance could be crucial.

Achimota looks next best to me,after a good win last time but may want softer ground and is 0w-1p-6r in this grade.

Theres been money Golden Chieftain and this horse is very well handicapped now but its 0w-1p-5r on sharp tracks like this and it really hasnt shown much for well over a year now.

Saroque has chances at its best but would prefer a more galloping track.

Back Velator 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies(Accept 3.5)-3rd(-12pts)Never travelling and given an incredible ride to hold every chance 2 out.Just couldnt quite pick up but no complaints.

410 Newton Abbot-Doubts about a lot of the field here but not the consistent Brody Bleu,who surely must run well.

It probably found 3 miles a bit too far last time and this drop in trip should suit.

Its interesting that its 2 career wins have been after a swift return to the track(14 days or less 2w-2p-4r) compared to 0w-1p-10r after an absence of 15 days or more.

Its got everything in its favour to get its head in front again.

Uhlan Bute drops in class but pulled up last time.Bravo Riquet has been in good form but needs a career best to win this.

Forresters Folly is very inconsistent,is up in class and 0w-1p-9r on left handed tracks.

Ballyegan has been carrying all before it at its beloved Taunton but here at this track(LH 0w-2p-11r) its clearly vulnerable and its up in grade too.

Olympian Boy isnt badly handicapped on its return to fences but the trainer is struggling for winners.

Back Brody Bleu 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies(Accept 4.5)-Won(+40pts)Accurate jumping won the day.

440 Newton Abbot-Black Narcissus showed its first real form when winning just 8 days ago.

Its possible that race fell in its lap however,the bare rating gives it 7Ibs to find with the top rated here and the yard are 0 from 12 here with their hurdlers.

The principals are Giveitachance and Sandynow,who both look rock solid while Minnie Milan could be suited by the step up in trip.

Lay Black Narcissus 20pts at 5.5-3rd(Cancelled due to non runner)(DT+28pts)

Monthly Total+92.3pts

Running Total+7510.04pts

24th March

310 Southwell-This probably revolves around Worthy Award who represents the McManus/O`Neill/McCoy team and makes its debut over fences.

The yard do well here(26% with their chasers) and if very strong in the betting then it would be a big concern.

However,the market has got it short enough already and that provides a nice price on Royal McNab who should appreciate the return to decent ground.

Its not had that many starts over fences itself and it finished 2nd last time,to a horse that has gone on and won again since.

Nomadic Storm is 2 from 3 here but would make more appeal at shorter.

Back Royal McNab 8pts at 6.0 at Paddys(Accept 5.5)-3rd(-8pts)Absolutely no idea what the jockey was doing on this but still looked like it could win before uprooting the 2nd last.

435 Wolves-Quite a tight race but I cant let Sunblazer go unbacked at the prices.

This is a pretty consistent horse who loves the new Tapeta surface here(Form figures 2nd-6th-1st-1st-3rd) and looks likely to be bang there at the finish.

Gabrial The Terror is on a roll and looks the main danger while Thomas Blossom and Percys Princess are up in class.

Back Sunblazer 8pts at 6.5 at Betbright(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Really well backed into 9/4 and touched 1.25 in running but got nutted right on the line

505 Wolves-Ginger Fizz ran well last time over course and distance.That took its record on the flat to 0 from 11 and it got raised 2Ib for its troubles.

The yard are 0 from 27 here and this horse is vulnerable to anything that can improve.I cant have it as favourite.

Stoneham produced a solid rating when stepped up to this trip for the first time,last time out and the yard are 20% with their older horses here.

Conserve interests me as it steps up in trip that should suit.The sire has a good record here and Kirby is 2 from 4 for the yard.

Par Three hasnt raced here before but is 1 from 1 at the trip while Sensor looks like a gamble waiting to happen,stepped up significantly in trip with the hood on for the first time.

Lay Ginger Fizz 20pts at 4.5-3rd(+19pts after commission)(DT+3pts)

Monthly Total+64.3pts

Running Total+7482.04pts

23rd March

320 Taunton-Taradrewe returns from an absence here,its got an ordinary record fresh and is 0w-0p-4r going right handed while the trainer is 0 from 13 over fences here.

On its hurdles form,its weighted up to its best so will have to improve for the switch to fences.

Makadamia looked good when winning last time while Geordie Lad represents a yard that have a 24% strike rate and its sire has a 28% strike rate over this trip.

Lay Taradrewe 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-Fell(+19pts After commission)

*Cancel or trade out if any non runners*

450 Taunton-Shy John unseated early last time but was progressive before that and on its rating 2 starts back,it holds strong claims here.

That topspeed figure stands out here and its 2w-1p-6r going right handed.

King Massini drops in class but has been pretty in and out for a while and doesnt look reliable.

Barton Heather has only had 2 starts over fences but needs to improve to match the selection.

Back Shy John 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-Won(+32pts 1 non runner)(DT+51pts)

330 Towcester-This is seriously weak and I can see the dropped in class,Lord Landen running a big race.

I can find excuses for its 4 runs this season(First run after a break then 3 on very suit ground) it now moves into a grade where it won the last time it ran in it and is back on its last winning mark plus on decent ground for the first time this season.The yard are in flying form.

Cabaret Girl ran well last time but has been inconsistent in its career while Grand Article has 2 course wins to its name but is 0w-3p-13r over 2m2 or further.

Back Lord Landen 12pts at 4.5-2nd(-12pts)Not too sure how this lost to be honest.Looked like it was cruising.

430 Towcester-The money for Cosway Spirit means there is a decent price available for Midnight Dove now.

I am concerned about his inconsistency but if it can run anything like its last start then it will go very close in this race.

Back Midnight Dove 9pts at 5.5 at Stan James(Accept 4.0)-Fell(-9pts)Just creeping into it when it came down(DT+30pts)

Monthly Total+61.3pts

Running Total+7479.04pts

22nd March

325 Wincanton-Scoop The Pot is totally unexposed and what it produced last time over shorter already puts it top of the ratings here and with improvement likely with experience and the step up in trip,its clearly the one to beat for a yard that have a 21% strike rate over hurdles here.

Unless Paul Nicholls finds the key to Rothman then the main danger for me is Richard Newland`s Top Cat Henry.

Its only had 1 run for this yard and although that wasnt a great run,i would expect better here over shorter and on better ground.

Back Scoop The Pot 16pts at 3.25-4th(-16pts)Very well backed but hurdling was poor and never really travelling.The winner was nicely backed.

Monthly Total+31.3pts

Running Total+7449.04pts

21st March

345 Newbury-A few unexposed ones in the line up but Storm Force Ten stands out for me.

This horse finished fourth last time in a hot race where the 1st(In the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham)) and 3rd have both won since and this horse looks thrown in,in its first handicap,especially considering all its runs have been on soft ground and it looks bound to improve on better ground.

The trainer has a solid 4 wins from 15 runners record at this track..

Back Storm Force Ten 12pts at 4.0-3rd(-12pts)Hurdling fell to pieces unfortunately.The winner and 2nd were next best for me on my ratings,so the selection has run about 10Ibs lower than the rating i had for it.

215 Kelso-Decent,competitve race and the progressive The Last Samurai looks overpriced to me.

This course and distance winner has only had 3 starts over fences,winning its first 2 and then just about to jump into the lead at the 2nd last,at this track when unseating its rider.That rating gives it a sound chance here with the promise of more to come.

Some of the yards runners have been a little in and out but the price allows for that.

Sun Cloud won well last time but may prefer softer ground and is 0w-0p-5r when returning to the track within 28 days.

This is easier company than Cloudy Too normally races against and it should go well but Knock a Hand has to improve again to figure.

Back The Last Samurai 8pts at 6.5 at Paddys(Accept 5.5)-Won(+44pts)Jumped great and stayed on strongly(DT+32pts)

Monthly Total+47.3pts

Running Total+7465.04pts

20th March

440 Sedgefield-Doubts about most here but Gentle George appeals as the value in a very ordinary race.

It ran really well 2 starts back but was a little below par next time.Its possible the ground had dried out a little too much for it there but todays soft ground will be ideal.

Its 2w-1p-6r in March and is still fairly lightly raced for its age.

Harris ran well last time over hurdles but that was at its beloved Catterick(2w-2p-5r at that track) and its only 1w-1p-15r elsewhere.

It ran poorly the last time it was over fences.

Debt to Society is another that ran well last time over hurdles and would have decent chances on its run over fences 2 starts back but it does like coming 2nd,its best on good/good to soft ground and is 0w-5p-20r in this grade.

Snuker represents a yard that do well here with their chasers(7 from 22) but its been right out of nick and even this ground may not be soft enough.

Back Gentle George 9pts at 5.5 at bet365/Betfair sportsbook(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-9pts)One paced when it mattered.

430 Lingfield-Shalambar has its work cut against some unexposed stayers here.

Its a pretty exposed horse that prefers a lower grade than this and is definitely a better horse at Kempton(0w-0p-3r at this track)

On my figures,its also a better horse at shorter than todays distance.

Katies Gale and Silver Mountain are both progressing fast and should finish 1st and 2nd while Guards Chapel is solid over course and distance.

Lay Shalambar 20pts at 6.0-2nd(+19pts after commission)

220 Lingfield-Lady Kyllar looks to hold strong claims here,making its handicap debut against mostly ordinary sorts.

Its last run over course and distance puts its well clear on my ratingsand it should continue to progress providing Jamie Spencer doesnt make a mess of it on board.

Soft Love and El Che both make their handicap debuts but need to improve.

Back Lady Kyllar 20pts at 2.75 at Bet365/Paddys -Won(+35pts)Different class to these.(DT+45pts)

Monthly Total+15.3pts

Running Total+7433.04pts

19th March

230 Chepstow-Eaton Road has a bit to prove after a poor run last time,

So far in its career,its best form has been on softer ground and its 0w-0p-4r at this track.

Its also 0w-1p-6r in this grade and the trainer has a miserable 1 from 24 record here.

Its a Long Road is progressive and must go well while Dashaway and Ballyknock Lad have chances.

Lay Eaton Road 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-UP(Wasnt Matched Again!!!)

415 Chepstow-Azure Aware is still lightly raced over hurdles and stayed on strongly over 2m6f last time,suggesting this 3 mile trip will suit.

This horse love this ground(2/2 on good) and jockey is 10 from 38 when riding for this yard.

Royale Knight is better known as a chaser rather than over todays hurdles but conditions are ideal and it runs fine fresh although it tends to win from May onwards.

Chestertern drops in class but has to prove itself over this trip and on this ground(Good/GS 0w-0p-4r)

Back Azure Aware 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-3rd(-10pts)Traded odds on(1.7) but sloppy hurdling in the straight cost it.

405 Ludlow-Mountain King is the one to beat,Its only had 2 starts over fences,its 1 from 1 here and represents a yard that are 30% with their chasers here.

However,ive got a tiny niggle on this faster and at 13/8,we can look elsewhere.

Arkaim lacks the upside of the fav but despite a couple of below par runs in a higher class,I think it could bounce back.

Its rating 3 starts back(Over course and distance) would give it very strong claims and its profile suggests it could return to that form.

Ludlow(1w-1p-2)...March-April(2w-2p-6r)...Racing right handed(6w-4p-16r)...class 3 (2w-1p-6r) and when carrying 11st8 or more(4w-3p-8r)

Back Arkaim 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Won(+40pts)Jockey did really well to get it started and scoot into an easy lead.(DT+30pts)

Monthly Total-29.7pts

Running Total+7388.04pts

18th March

915 Kempton-Catalinas Diamond ran well last time but that was at Lingfield(4 course wins) and its record here,is less impressive(0w-1p-10r)

Not only that but its drawn 11 of 12,which will be no help.I cant have it as favourite.

Black Truffle is nicely handicapped and goes well here while Wedgewood Estates would have serious chances on its run over course and distance 2 starts back.

Welsh Inlet isnt out of it and Douneedahand is inconsistent but would go very close on its best form around here and the jockey is 5 from 18 for the yard.

Lay Catalinas Diamond 20pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)

210 Haydock Back Dark Dune to beat War Singer 10pts at 4/5 at Hills-Unseated its rider at the first!(-10pts)

305 Warwick Back Emma Soda to beat The Last Bridge 10pts at 8/11 at bet365/Betvictor-Won(+7.3pts)(DT-2.7pts)

17th March

440 Wetherby-Arthurs Secret is unexposed and makes its handicap debut for a yard that do very well here.It is massively respescted but Luddsdenene is the value call.

This horse made its debut for this yard last time and ran really well,posting a big speed figure.

This is actually a drop in class and the trainer is 2 from 4 here ,on her rare visits to this track.

Mike McCann has a little bit to find on my ratings but as an irish raider ,has to be respected.

Watt Broderick is the only other one,with a chance.

Back Luddsdenene 8pts at 6.5 at various bookies-UP(-8pts)Held up off the pace and cruised into it but not much happened and that was it.