21st January

255 Southwell-I would have Kung Hei Fat Choy much shorter than it is here.

A record of 3w-1p-6r in this class,5 course victories and 6 wins at this trip means everything is in its favour and add to that 3w-2p-7r during January means theres very little downside.

Greyfriarschorista is a danger but is better at further with 3 runs over course and distance reading 3rd-4th-5th.

Moonlight Venture is 2 from 2 in this grade but wants further and has a little bit on the weights

Back Kung hei Fat Choy 18pts at 3.0 at bet365-UP(-18pts)Very weak in the market and ran accordingly

710 Chelmsford-Ohsosecret won nicely last time over shorter and is fine at this track but there is a doubt about this trip(sire just 6% over the distance)

Mambo Fever is very consistent and should go well but as of yet,my ratings have it a better horse at further.

Barbs Princess returns from a short break and has the ratings to figure at its best but has no course form to its name.

I dont fancy Lady Gemini but Saved My Bacon is the wrong price.

It ran a fine race over 5 furlongs here last time but will be better over this trip(6f 3w-1p-10r),its 2w-3p-8r at this track...4w-1p-8r in fields of 7 or less and 3w-2p-6r when returning to the track within 15 days like today.

Back Saved My Bacon 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Backed from 6/1 into 5/2 but it just didnt happen(DT-25pts)

20th January

310 Newbury-Achimoto has its ideal conditions here and it looks overpriced to me.

Its 2w-2p-5r on heavy ground and stays a little further than this,that extra stamina could be vital if in contention turning in.

This is a drop in class from its last 2 starts and its 2w-3p-6r in Jan/Feb.

Willoughby Bridge is totally unexposed over fences and is the obvious danger.

Back Achimoto 6pts at 8.0 at various bookies-Meeting Abandoned

135 Lingfield-Hannington surely has a better chance than the current odds suggest here.

This will be its first start for a new yard(Small stable going fine) and they fit a tongue tie on.

Its 2 from 4 around here and has 2 wins in this grade plus has a promising young claimer onboard.

This is the shortest trip its faced but it looks an interesting move and it should get a good toe into the race.

Corporal Maddox is a big danger while Steal the Scene will appreciate the drop in trip but hasnt ever raced here.

Back Hannington 5pts at 12.0 at Betvictor/bet365-UP(-5pts)

210 Lingfield-Thomas Blossom interests me here especially with George Baker riding it for the first time.

This will be its first start at Lingfield since it won here last February,it clearly likes this place as it was beaten under a length on its other start here.

Its 3w-3p-9r in this grade and all 4 career wins have come in fields of 11 or less.

Percella is easily the biggest threat.

Back Thomas Blossom 6pts at 9.0 at bet365/Ladbrokes-3rd(-6pts)Beaten by a neck!(DT-11pts)

19th January

415 Ayr-Unless the difficult to assess Suzy`s Music is better than its showed so far then this looks a good opportunity for Discoverie to notch another win.

Its one of the few to come into this race in any sort of form and is 6Ibs clear on my figures.

This will be its 3rd run for the Ken Slack stable,who despite only having 40 runners in the last 2 years,are operating at a decent 26% strike rate.

This is a drop in class and although its form looks a bit patchy,if you actually just take its hurdles runs(In Handicap company) at around 2 miles on soft or heavy then its form figures read 2-2-1-1-2.

Harry Challoner takes a valuable 3Ibs off and he has ridden 3 winners from 6 rides for the yard.

Back Discoverie 14pts at 3.5 at Paddys(Accept 3.25)-UP(-14pts) 5/2 into even money and never travelling!

18th January

315 Plumpton-Leith Hill Legasi is a course winner but is a horse that tends to lose its form at the turn of the year(Nov-Dec 3w-2p-8r  Jan to April 0w-1p-8r)

Add to that ,its never managed even a place when its been rated 91 or higher(Runs off 100 here) and it has it all on at the weights with a couple of its rivals here.

It beat Burgess Dream 2 starts back but is now 14Ibs worse off with that rival and Burgess is still unexposed over fences while 3 starts back it beat Bebinn by a couple of lengths but now finds itself a massive 19Ibs worse off.

It will need to be at the top of its game to turn that around but history suggests it wont be plus the trainer isnt pulling up any trees(Last 60 days- 6 winners from 141 runners)

Cheat The Cheater is another horse than can go well.

Lay Leith Hill Legasi 20pts at 5.5-UP(+19pts)Ran as expected and hopefully some had a few quid on Goring Two in the 215 that was mentioned in the subscribers email.

Monthly Total-79pts

Running Total+8372.95pts

16th January

300 Warwick-Dan Skelton took this race last year and looks to have a strong chance of following up with Born Survivor.

Its one hurdle race was an easy win over course and distance and that rating/speed figure makes it a massive runner here.

When this trainer has a runner that is or sharing favouritism in a novice hurdle like this,he has a 60% strike rate(21 winners from 35 runners)

The Willie Mullins pair Thomas Hobson and Open Eagle are both respected while Final Nudge is improving.

Back Born Survivor 14pts at 3.5-4th(-14pts)

205 Wetherby-Maybe Mwaleshi isnt in the same form as last season but its below par runs this season have all been on goodish ground and it now gets its preferred much softer surface.

Its tumbled down the weights and drops in trip,it would be no surprise if the excellent Danny Cook(24% strike rate for this yard) sets a strong pace up front.

It likes it here with 2 course wins from 4 starts and is 5w-1p-13r in fields of 7 or less but that improves to 4w-0p-7r when just taking races on soft/heavy ground.

It just looks the wrong price to me.

This is a good race however,Sir Valentino brings the best recent form and should run well but could be a better horse going right handed.

Gardefort is totally unexposed but did pull up last time while Upsilon Bleu could go well on its favourite surface.

Back Mwaleshi 6pts at 8.0 at betvictor/Paddys/Boyles-3rd(-6pts)

240 Wetherby-The lightly raced Maxie T appeals most here,after winning easily last time out ,on just its 2nd start  for this yard.

That was a career best and if repeated,it will be tough to beat.

Vendor won last time but maybe slightly better at shorter while both Master Jake and Divine Port are improving but will need to do so again if the selection repeats its latest effort.

Back Maxie T 10pts at 5.0 at hills(Accept 4.3)-UP(-10pts)Hopeless day!(DT-30pts)

15th January

120 Huntingdon-I was interested in The Hon Mackinlay making its handicap debut for a yard that are 3 from 8 with such types at this track but its all about the prices and that means Kleitomachos is the value.

This horse has got its act together since being fitted with blinkers and produced a career best last time over further than this.

Its the clear form pick on my figures and appears to have the more exposed horses covered,it all depends on how good the handicap debutant is.

Valiant Creek and Daliance are respected but need to improve if the selection runs its race while Ballinalacken looks a bit short to me despite winning here last time.

Its form before that win was very patchy to say the least and as it went off at 16/1,its unlikely a good run was expected.

Back Kleitomachos 10pts at 5.0 at Betvictor/Ladbrokes-Pulled UP(-10pts)Broke blood vessel.

220 Huntingdon-Last years winner(And tipped up as a selection) Arbeo has very little negatives here and surely has to go close.

Its been running in much better races than this and drops down in grade,at a track it goes well at(Huntingdon 1st-1st-3rd).

It always gets into a gear at the turn of the year(Jan-Mar 5w-1p-9r) ,is 3 from 6 on heavy ground and clearly knows when to win(Been favourite 4 times and won them all!)

Anything close to last seasons rating in this race will make it very tough to beat.

Serious opposition is thin on the ground,Bus Named Desire has a fairly consistent profile over fences but will need to improve and this isnt normally a track for hold up horses.

Veauce De Sivola came back to a bit of form last time and has won over this trip over hurdles,its probably the main danger.

Back Arbeo 20pts at 2.75 at various bookies-Won(+35pts)Tremendous ride when it didnt look likely.(DT+25pts)

14th January

100 Southwell-James Bond Girl interests me here.

It would have a serious chance on its form in France and while it hasnt reproduced that form yet,it now drops back in trip and more importantly,gets to race on this surface for the first time.

Its sire(Giants Causeway) has a fine record on the fibresand(22 wins/71 starts 30%) and it would be no surprise if its form went to a new level.

This is also jockey Graham Lee`s only ride of the day for a yard that he has a 25% strike rate for.

Iconic Figure heads the market but it represents a sire that only has a 5% strikerate here(1 from 17) while the newcomer Graceful Favour is another who`s sire struggles here(0 from 15) although the trainer does pretty well here with his debut runner(6 from 22 27%)

Back James Bond Girl 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies-Won(+60pts *Paid out BOG)

540 Chelmsford-Cosmic Statesman has been running okay but is now 0 from 18 and represents a stable with a less than impressive 3% strike rate at this track.

I cant have it as 2nd favourite.

San Quentin is a force in this grade and should go well while Smugglers Lane has been in decent form and is unexposed over staying trips.

Hall Of Beauty and bracken Brae both hold chances also.

Lay Cosmic Statesman 20pts at 5.5-UP(+19pts)

810 Chelmsford-Gunner Moyne beat Anjuna Beach last time after an absence of over 200 days off the track,it now makes a swift return just 7 days later and that,along with a weights turnaround means it may be a different story here.

It will come down to whether the Anjuna Beach wants it or not,it has placed in 4 of its 5 starts around and placed in both starts in this grade.

Whatever the case,the gap between the two it too big in the market.

Sleet seems to find it impossible to win but does drop in class.

Back Anjuna Beach 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies-2nd(-12pts)(DT+67pts)

Monthly Total-93pts

Running Total+8358.95pts

13th January

255 Chelmsford-This is a 2 horse race and while Oakley Girl is a very fair favourite,I feel Pactolus has at least as good a chance and has to be the value.

This horse is 2 from 4 at this track and is 2 from 3 at around this trip.

The favourite is pretty progressive and much respected but hasnt raced around this track yet.

Back Pactolus 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies-2nd

240 Taunton-Easter Day is quite difficult to assess,from a yard that do very well here but its been very inconsistent  for the last couple of years.

Top Wood should run well and is the main danger to the selection Murrayana.

This horse is unexposed over fences and although it moves up in trip,theres evidence in the pedigree to suggest that wont be a problem.

The trainer has a 30% strike rate with his handicap chasers when he moves them up over 3 furlongs in trip,like here.

Back Murrayana 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-3rd(DT-22pts)

12th January

330 Ludlow-Question marks against most here.

Quite a few of these are running over hurdles for the first time in a while after losing their way over fences.

Quite often horses lose a bit a toe when back over the smaller obstacles and I feel those horses can be taken on.

The favourite is Market Option, would have a decent chance if this was a chase but this is its first run over hurdles since Feb 2014) & Venitia Williams is just 3% here with her hurdlers.

Fishing Bridge tends to do most of its racing at Ffos Las and is 0 from 3 going right handed but it will handle conditions and didnt run too badly over shorter last time.

Its a danger to Rainbow Haze,who couldnt be described as well treated but is in form,will like trip and ground and should be heading the market in my opinion.

Captain Flash could be involved if it improves for the step up in trip.

Back Rainbow Haze 7pts at 7.5 at various bookies-4th(-7pts)Well backed but never really travelling at any point.

10th January

310 Southwell-Abi Scarlet was below par last time but I expect it to bounce back here.

Its record when racing in fields of 8 or more is 0w-2p-18r(last time out 8 runners) but when in fields of 7 or less(like today) its 9w-3p-16r

Its record over this course and distance is fairly amazing (8w-4p-17r) and when dropped into this class(4w-2p-9r)

Luke Morris is always a good booking and this horse is 3 from 6 during January.

Jacobs Pillow is the main danger but it does like to place rather than win it seems.

Back Abi Scarlet 20pts at 2.75 at Skybet/Betfair sportsbook(Accept 2.5)-UP(-20pts)Hopeless tip and performance.

9th January

325 Chepstow-The lightly raced,improving Otago Trail stands out here.

It won last time on just its 2nd start over fences and that rating is the best on show.

The 2nd and 3rd that day have come out and won and the trainer has won this race twice in the last 3 years.

Saint Ralph is up in class but will be better over this trip than last time while Fayette County could be a danger if the money comes.

Quincy Des Pictons has been off a while but has finished 1st-2nd-1st in its 3 starts here and Fourth Act has been consistent but moves up in grade.

Back Otago Trail 20pts at 2.75 at Hills/Betway/Paddys-Won(+35pts)A short price but a very easy winner.

1250 Kempton-Rouge Et Blanc is down to run at Chepstow(1st preference)

Theres a few that can be discounted here,Galway Jack is 0 from 7 going right handed and has no record after a break(121 days+ ow-0p-4r)

Starkie is another that tends to need a run after a break and although it has Richard Johnson onboard,he only has a 4% strikerate for the yard.

Comeonginger is 2 from 2 here and if it copes with the drop in trip then its a big runner.

The Clock Leary has chances on its best form but appears to have lost its way a little,so that leaves Balgarry as my choice.

It unseated early on last time but it was showing progressive form over fences before that.

Its 2w-1p-5r in this class and the sire has a 33% strike rate at this track.

Back Balgarry 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Late money for it but ran terribly.

310 Kempton-Its a competitve race but Harry`s Farewell is surely the wrong price here.

Although up in class and despite coming down at the first over xmas,it was very progressive before that and its speed figure two starts back,is the best on show here.

Kruzhlinin makes its first start for Phillip Hobbs and has the back class to take this but it hasnt won since 2013 and the jury remains out.

Le Reve likes going right handed and drops in class but it couldnt be described as well handicapped.

Back Harry`s Farewell 5pts at 13.0 at ladbrokes/888sport/32red-3rd(-5pts)Ran a good race but too many niggly mistakes at its fences

345 Kempton-Hollywood All Star has won its last two starts but moves up in grade,is 0w-0p-6r around this track and 0w-0p-11r going right handed overall.

Despite clearly being in the form of its life,its got it all to do here.

Dormouse is another in good form but its latest win matched its best ever rating and at the age of 11,I cant see it bettering it and it needs too.

Heath Hunter is solid and must run well but the stable jockey is on the dropped in class Stars Over The Sea.

That horse looks like it has issues with the ground but there has been some early money for it.

Jumps Road should be involved as its best over this trip but I like the lightly raced Tara Bridge.

It finished 2nd on its seasonal debut last time in a race that has worked out well(1st and 3rd have won 3 races since)

Its form figures have gone 5,4,3,2...so lest hope it can add a 1 on.

Back Tara Bridge 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Weak in the betting and ran terrible.

Lay Hollywood All Star 20pts at 6.0-2nd(+19pts)Ran much better than I thought(DT+27pts)

Monthly Total-111pts

Running Total+8340.95pts

8th January

1215 Doncaster-This is a pretty weak affair with very few holding solid chances.

By far the most reliable proposition has to be JumpandTravel who ran well last time against a well treated rival.

This is a drop in class(1 from 2 in this grade) and im very surprised it isnt favourite.

Redkalani moves up in trip for a yard that likes a punt.It hasnt had many chances and there has been some early money for it but it needs to improve for the extra distance.

Harleys Max is very in and out and has been chasing but it will handle the ground and the sire has a 30% strikerate at the track with its horses.

Triumph Davis ran quite well last time but even that run leaves it short on my figures.

It has a very inconsistent profile and it has to be doubtful of it backing up that run.

It has more letters than numbers next to its name in recent times but if the fitting of blinkers wakes Madam Lilibet up then it could eat this lot up.

Its got 9 career wins to its name(The rest of this field have one win between them),will love the ground,drops in class and is nicely handicapped now.

Back JumpandTravel 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-3rd

Back Madam Lilibet 4pts at 12.0 at various bookies-UP

Lay Triumph Davis 20pts at 6.0-UP(+7pts)

6th January

100 Chelmsford-This should be fast and furious and that should suit Borough Boy.

This horse posted the best recent rating here when finishing a close second to a horse that has come out and won again since.

That race was at Southwell but it would be reasonable to expect better at this track.

The horse has ran 3 times here and finished 1st-1st-2nd,with both wins coming over this distance,it is favourite but i would have it much shorter.

Powerful Wind drops in class and is the main danger but has no form here.

Back Borough Boy 11pts at 4.3-4th(-11pts)

130 Chelmsford-Rosealee is unexposed and ran a fine race last time on just its 3rd career start.

That run was over this course and distance and was backed up by a good speed figure.

There are a couple here who could have more to offer but its definitely the one to beat.

Krystallite represents an in form yard and has a steadily progressive profile while Dark Side Princess makes its handicap debut.

It needs to improve but the jockey has a 23% strike rate when riding for this yard.

Back Rosealee 14pts at 3.5-3rd(-14pts)Two really poor performances.Neither ever looked like winning(DT-25pts)

3rd January

The tip didnt run as the meeting was abandoned.

2nd January

240 Ayr-The unexposed over hurdles,Caledonia,meets many rivals with questions to answer here.

It had the race won when coming down late on last time and based on that run,its nicely weighted for its handicap debut.

Brian Hughes has a 30% strike rate here for Jim Goldie in recent times.

Tap Night is the obvious danger as it returned to form last time and has 3 course wins to its name.

Sa Suffit is respected despite getting old now while the extra stamina of Shades of Midnight could be a factor,if its still invovled late on.

Back Caledonia 12pts at 4.5 at 32red/888sports-2nd(-12pts)Beaten by a horse with form figures of P-P-0 and finished miles clear of the third.

1st January

1245 Cheltenham-Alternatif should take a bit of beating here,as an unexposed,improving chaser,it heads my ratings.

Beg To Differ is another lightly raced sort.It needs to improve but JonJo O`Neill`s often do when stepped up in trip.

Financial Climate is much more exposed but has a good record in small fields(9r or less 6w-2p-16r) while Indian Castle has form to figure if its in the mood.

Perfect Candidate has been beaten around here 5 times and although the yard are in decent nick,the price looks too short on my figures.

Lay Perfect Candidate 20pts at 5.5-Won(-90pts)

335 Fakenham-A weak race and the improving Very Intense,looks to have a fine chance on my ratings.

Its been very consistent and with conditions holding no fears for it,id be surprised if it doesnt go close.

Weybridge Light is very beatable and is still 7Ibs above its last winning mark.

Global Dream looks the main danger on its runs 2 starts back but the selection is clearly the one to beat.

Back Very Intense 18pts at 3.0 at various bookies(Accept 2.75)-2nd(-18pts)Horrible start to the new year(DT-108pts)

31st December

210 Warwick-If this meeting goes ahead then Paddy The Oscar has a decent chance in this staying handicap.

It returned to form last time behind an unexposed winner and that rating means it should be the market leader here.

Leith Hill Legasi is a very vulnerable favourite in my view.Its up in class and races off a 14Ib higher mark than last time out.

Although conditions are fine for it,its actually 22Ibs worse off with the selection when it was beaten 22 lengths by Paddy The Oscar last season.

Morney Wing won yesterday but is surely unlikely to take in 2 long slogs in such a short space of time.

Emma Soda is 2 from 3 here but returns from a break while Loughalder is another goes well here and drops in class,it could go well.

Back Paddy The Oscar 9pts at 5.5 at Betvictor/Ladbrokes-Won(+36pts)

Lay Leith Hill Legasi 20pts at 4.5(lay upto 5.0)-UP(+19pts)

230 Lingfield-The unexposed/improving Dougan stands out for me here.

Although im a little concerned about the jockey,she has been riding plenty of winners and this horse should take a bit of beating.

In each of its 4 runs,its rating has jumped forward and if it can settle a little better than last time then it should win.

Crack Shot makes its debut for James Tate and there has been some early money for it.

Adam Kirby takes the ride and he has a 36% strike rate for the yard.

Corporal Maddox has been in great form and shouldnt be far away.

Back Dougan 15pts at 3.5-Won(+37.5pts)(DT+92.5pts)Tremendous end to the year!

Monthly Total+148.5pts

Running Total+8451.95pts

30th December

230 Haydock-Elenika was an easy winner last time,posting the clear best rating here in the process and really should be clear favourite for me.

Trip and conditions are ideal and it should go close.

Minella Reception is unexposed over fences but this will be a tough test after a break of nearly 500 days off.

I doubt it will want for fitness but is 0w-1p-4r after absences of longer than 121 days.

Friendly Royal is the danger,with its consistent profile and fine trainer/jockey combination(24%)

Back Elenika 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies-3rd(-16pts)Real laboured performance.Never really involved but couldnt give the winner much chance at all.

1220 Haydock-This looks a decent opportunity for Ballywilliam,who makes its handicap debut from a decent mark.Its the right favourite.

Bruce Almighty has been consistent but moves up in class here and needs to find some improvement on my figures.

Rock Relief is inconsistent but ran a fine race last time over a little shorter and if building on it ,would go close.

American Life has shown little so far this season but rattled off a quick soft ground hat trick of victories last year.

Its back on its last winning mark and cant have the ground soft enough.

Lay Bruce Almighty 20pts at 3.75(lay upto 4.5)-UP(+19pts)American Life hosed up!(DT+3pts)

Monthly Total+56pts

Running Total+8359.45pts

29th December

310 Newbury-Its fairly exposed and one of the lighter raced ones could improve past it but Shotavodka is a silly price here.

It ran a fair race last time over fences,in a higher grade,to back up an encouraging first run of the season over hurdles.

Both of those ratings make it pretty competitve here and its profile backs up its chance.

Its 3 runs at this track have resulted in a 3rd-1st-3rd,in fields of 9 or less its 5w-3p-10r and is 5w-4p-14r when returning to the track within 31 days like today.

One Track Mind ran well on its reappearance and would go close on last seasons best.

Lower Hope Dandy is difficult to assess but the trainer doesnt do that well here(7% strike rate) while Chieftains Choice is a bigger price than I have it.

Back Shotavodka 6pts at 10,0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Totally got it wrong

1200 Doncaster-The worry is that Pixiepot travels well and doesnt find a lot,therefore it places a lot but its ratings means its chance is better than the odds suggest here.

The better ground may allow it to stay on the bridle longer and if it does then its a big runner.

Catherines Well is the main danger as its improving and hails from an in form yard.

Donnas Pride is down in class and has chances but the trainer is 0 from 16 in handicap hurdles here in the last 2 years.

Angel Face makes its handicap debut but with a claimer booked,the trainer possibly doesnt think its well handicapped,my ratings back that up.

Back Pixiepot 8pts at 6.0 at Paddys-UP(-8pts)Lifeless performance after so many consistent efforts.

110 Doncaster-Its surprising to see The Grey Taylor as favourite here.It has only had just 2 runs over fences so could improve but will need too.

Baltimore Rock was a good hurdler and makes its chase debut straight into a handicap.

It will need to be at least as good over the bigger obstacles to take this.

Long Lunch is improving but has struggled so far,to win in this grade(0/6).

I like Katachenko,who is still unexposed over fences and heads my figures on both its runs this season,its 3w-2p-7r in fields of 9 or less.

Its a 9/4 chance for me.

Back Katachenko 9pts at 5.5 at bet365-2nd(-9pts)Ran a fine race but Baltimore Rock looked a good recruit.(DT-23pts)

28th December

200 Leicester-Noble Legend returned to form last time and would have solid chances if that run can be repeated,however it has been pretty inconsistent the last 2 years and is 0w-2p-6r going right handed.

Great Link is 0w-2p-7r over 2m4 and has posted its best rating at shorter and on better ground than this,it may be vulnerable late on.

Moorlands Jack looks better on good ground and this is also a rise in class.

The value has to be The Italian Yob for a yard that his flying at present.

Its 2 runs this year give it every chance ,its 2 from 3 in December,the trainer is 4 from 9 at this track and the stallion has a 28% strike rate at this track.

Back The Italian Yob 8pts at 7.0 at Betvictor/WilliamHill(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-8pts)

245 Catterick-Truckers Highway is improving but im shocked that Nautical Twilight isnt favourite.

Its latest run when dropped back to 2 miles was the best of its 3 runs over fences and has to be the one to beat here.

The speed figure backs up that run and I expect this horse to shorten in its odds a lot.

Difficult to see anything else being involved if the main two run their race.

Back Nautical Twilight 13pts at 4.0 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-Won(+39pts)Different class to these.(DT+31pts)

Monthly Total+76pts

Running Total+8379.45pts

27th December

200 Kempton-Sprinter Sacre is top rated on its easy comeback win and is the most likely winner of this race but the gap in prices between it and Sire De Grugy is too big in my opinion.

The latter came back to form last time,is 2 from 2 at this track and the more rain that falls,the better its chance becomes.

Its difficult to see what else could be invovled although Somersby is a bit big at 18/1.

Back Sire De Grugy 10pts at 5.0 at Sportingbet/Ladbrokes(Accept 4.3)-2nd(-10pts)Looked to have it won and touched 1.02 in running but hit the last and couldnt rally.

140 Chelmsford-Sinaker has questions to answer after running a shocker last time out and it has no experience of the track.

Belrog continues to thrive and clearly loves it here.Its progression may not have stopped yet but its pretty short and this is a rise in class.

Aumerie won last time over course and distance but is another thats up in class while Kellys Finest finally broke its duck last time but was all out to do so and will need more here.

The value is Noguchi,who has excuses for its 2 latest defeats(last time trip too short and time before up in class)

Its run 3 starts back around here,gives it every chance and it has 2 course victories to its name.

Its 6w-3p-22r in fields of 7 or less and has 5 wins to its name when returning to the track within 30 days like today.

Back Noguchi 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Halved in price but wasnt good enough.(DT-17pts)

26th December

1235 Wetherby-After showing very little on its first 2 chase starts under rules,Under The Red Sky produced much more last time in the face of a difficult task,over 2 miles.

That bare rating taken at face value gives it a fair shout and it now makes its handicap debut at a much more suitable trip.

It could have been flattered but the topspeed figure wasnt bad either,at the prices it has to be supported.

Longueville Flier and Oscar Lateen head the dangers.

Back Under The Red Sky 3pts at 17.0 at various bookies(Meeting abandoned)

1225 Market Rasen-With its inconsistent profile and a poor win record(1/37 over hurdles),Gud Day has to be taken on.

Its a double figure price in my tissue & im struggling to see why it should be near the front of the market.

My Lord is consistent and heads the ratings,this is a drop in class on just its 3rd start for Jim Best(28% with his hurdlers here)

Lean Burn is pretty solid and should be thereabouts while Kings Road could have been laid out for this.

It won this race last year and the trainer also won it the year before.

Its got form figures around this course and distance of 2-P-1-5-1-2 and is 4w-1p-8r in this grade.

Lay Gud Day 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-3rd(+9pts Only partially matched)

245 Market Rasen-Although it finished last of six last time out,Ublatique travelled strongly into the race and maybe this sharper,easier track will help it finish its race.

This is pretty weak with question marks over everything and off a mark 3Ibs lower than its last winning mark,its handicapped to go close.

Chestnut Ben won this race last year after an absence,so it was a pretty poor run first time out this year.It would have a strong chance based on last years run but this ground will be soft enough.

Grimley Girl is unexposed over fences and won here over hurdles,its probably the main danger.

Chankillo has been in decent form but drops in trip and wont like the ground.Its got a career record of 2 from 44.

Back Ubaltique 9pts at 5.5 at Paddys(Accept 4.5)-3rd(-9pts)Very disappointing horse.Wont be supporting again.

320 Market Rasen-This will be the 3rd start for Touch Back under Chris Bealby and the trainer appears to be coaxing some decent form out of the horse.

Its latest run is the best in on my figures and now races off its last winning mark,the drop in trip should be fine and its 3w-2p-9r in this class.

The recent win record is a worry but the price is big enough to get involved with the jockey having ridden 4 winners from 10 rides for this yard.

The very unexposed Itsnowcato is the one im worried about.It was carried out on its handicap debut and this is only its fourth career start.

Spice Fair posted a fair rating last time out but ive got it a slightly better horse back at a 2 miles trip.

Back Touch Back 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Halved in price but the trip looked too sharp.Stayed on up the straight.

310 Kempton-A great race and one in which Vautour looks seriously under priced.

A different jockey/trainer combination would see it trading at a much bigger price in my view.Its reappearance run leaves it with a fair bit to find and with a stamina doubt thrown in,I cant have it at the prices.

Don Cossack is a fair favourite and is the one to beat,its around the right price however but Cue Card represents fair value here.

Its latest run matched its career best rating and it should have won this 2 years ago,the jockey is 6 from 19 for the yard.

Smad Place produced a fine performance last time in a big handicap race.It now moves into graded company and wont be far away if repeating that latest run.

Silviniaco Conti has won this the last 2 years and represents a yard that have won this race incredibly,7 of the last 9 years.

It doesnt seem quite the horse it was but has never finished out of the frame around this track.

Back Cue Card 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-Won(+45pts Paid out BOG)

Lay Vautour 20pts at 4.5-2nd(+19pts)Called this horse wrong but got away with it.

115 Sedgefield-Gin Cobbler can be a bit in and out but it produced a good effort last time in a higher grade and could make them all go,if bouncing out in front.

Its back to its last winning mark and is a pretty silly price.

Mandy`s Boy has only had 2 starts over fences and drops in class here after running well last time out.

The first time tongue tie presumably helped that day and is retained here.

On The Case ran well last time out on its seasonal debut and is a fair favourite but is a tight enough price for me.

Theflyingportrait is unexposed but is very inconsistent.Although this is a drop in class,the yard have been struggling all season.

Back Gin Cobbler 4pts at 13.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 10.0)

Back Mandy`s Boy 5pts at 10.0 at Totesport/Betfred(Both Non Runners)

230 Sedgefield-Tiny Dancer was off for 18 months and in that time changed yards.its 2 runs for its new stables have both been over a trip I feel,is too far.

Its now back to a distance where it should be able to return to its best.

Its 1 from 1 around this course and distance,is now 6Ibs below its last winning mark and also gets a good 5Ib claimer onboard for the first time.

Im struggling to see why Shrapnel is available at 4/1,its 16/1 chance for me but it is well enough handicapped if it did decide to put its best foot forward.

Down Time has its 2nd start for Brian Ellison but will need to step up a lot on what it done on its first run for the yard.

Lord Usher looks a bigger danger after a decent run on its first start over fences while Uno Valoroso drops in class but has a question mark over this trip.

Back Tiny Dancer 12pts at 4.5-4th(-12pts)Ground looked unraceable but this horse never got competitive.(DT+46pts)
Monthly Total+62pts
Running Total+8365.45pts

21st December

710 Wolves-Hickster is solid and must run well but the price is right.

Buckland Beau has been running well but mainly elsewhere while Hercullian Prince likes it here but moves up in trip.

Walk Like A Giant at its best,would be a big runner but will need more than its rating posted last time over course and distance.

Off The Pulse was below par last time but that was from a wide draw.

On its run 2 starts back,it has a better chance than the odds suggest and it drops back into this grade for the first time since 2013.

Its 5Ibs below its last winning mark and is 5w-2p-17r when returning to the track within 30 days.

From a perfect draw,it would be no surprise if the money came.

Back Off The Pulse 6pts at 8.5-3rd(-6pts)Given every chance and ran well but just wasnt quite good enough.

19th December

1255 Haydock-So many unexposed horses here but the solid,consistent Smart Talk is a surprisingly big price.

This horse has shown progressive form and although more exposed than the rest of the field,it does have 10Ibs on my figures, in hand of the rest of the field.

Any of the lightly raced mares could improve past it but at the prices,it has to be backed.

Back Smart Talk 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-Won(+42pts)Halved in price and won easily.

315 Haydock-Major Ivan made an encouraging handicap debut last time and may improve for this slight drop in trip after travelling so well last time.

The trainer has won with 3 of his last 6 runners and this horse should run well.

Isaacstown Lad fell early on in its quest for a four timer,last time out but was improving fast prior to that and is the obvious danger.

Oscar Blue is another improver but very heavy ground is a bit of an unknown while Ugly Bug returned to form last but this is a rise in class.

Back Major Ivan 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)

1215 Newcastle-Askamore Darsi posted a good rating when winning over trip and ground and that puts it bang there here.

Imperial Leader came down on its chase debut its position in the market suggested a big run was expected.

Alto Des Mottes has been running well and the trainer has a 25% strike rate with his chasers here.

The Orange Rogue is 0 from 11 in its career and places far too often when a winning opportunity presents itself,its ratings so far in its 6 race chase career need to be improved upon to win this.

Lay The Orange Rogue 20pts at 5.0(Lay upto 5.5)-UP(+19pts)(DT+53pts)

Monthly Total+22pts

Running Total+8325.45pts

17th December

110 Towcester-There a couple of good rivals against it but Market Option shouldnt be the price it is.

It produced a good run last time on very soft ground and would have a sound chance on that.

The horse is 1Ib below its last winning mark and the yard have been in fine form for a while.

Smart Exit has put together two good runs this season,will have no problems with trip,track and ground but is now 12Ibs above its last winning mark.

Newton Thistle is 11Ibs above its last winning mark but has form figures at this track of 2-1-2-1-P-1,it has to respected on that.

Back Market Option 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Fell(-8pts)Came down early on.

330 Southwell-Theres been a bit of money for Serenity Now and I can see why.

Its latest rating over slighty further on this track,gives it a solid chance and it will probably be better back at this trip where its form figures at this track read 1st-3rd-1st-2nd.

Its 5w-7p-22r when returning to the track within 30 days(9 days todays) and the jockey is 3 from 10 for the yard.

Countermand could be better than these as it romped home in its maiden here last time but that bare rating wouldnt win this and topspeed figure was poor.

However the yard have a 38% strike rate in handicaps here and it has to be a danger.

Gabriel The Hero goes well in this grade(2w-2p-6r) but hasnt raced here before and that is always a worry.

Royal Marskell is the other I give a chance too,its been doing little but loves this track and would have a chance if repeating its last run here.

Back Serenity Now 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)This horse hasnt run its race at all to continue the poor run.(DT-20pts)
Monthly Total-31pts

Running Total+8272.45pts

15th December

100 Southwell-Since encountering the fibresand surface here at Southwell,Tiger`s Home form has gone up a level and its finished 1st-1st-2nd in its 3 starts at this track.

The latest run saw it pull clear with a fibresand specialist with 5 lengths back to the third,a repeat of that run/rating would see it going very close here.

The trainer has a 29% strike rate here in the last 2 years.

Capelita makes its debut for Mick Appleby,encounters this surface for the first time and moves up in trip.

It needs to improve for these things to win this.

What Could She Be and Noblest come here after winning their maidens last time out at this track.Both performances need improvement to take this if the selection runs its race.

Back Tiger`s Home 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-16pts)Unfortunately Capelita was a different horse to what we had seen before.

13th December

225 Southwell-Unless Ruby Rambler makes a big step forward for moving into handicap company then this looks a good opportunity for Western Breeze.

This horse has only had 4 starts over hurdles and is 1 from 1 at this track.Its latest rating puts it well clear here and I would expect it to try and make all.

Carinena is another to move into handicap company for the first time but is up in class and may want the ground a bit quicker.

Cool Baranca ran well last time but is very exposed and this ground should be too slow for it.

Back Western Breeze 18pts at 3.0 at various bookies-2nd(-18pts)Just bumped into a big improver.

12th December

110 Lingfield-This ground will be tough going,so we need a horse that is certain to go on it and Winston Churchill fits the bill here.

This horse has raced 4 times on heavy ground and finished 1st-1st-1st-2nd.

Its 3w-2p-7r over this trip and 3w-1p-7r in fields of 7 or less(Compared to 0w-5p-16r in fields of 8 or more) and is 2w-2p-6r in this grade.

Its very difficult to see it not being involved.

Alder Mairi is a fair danger and could still be improving over fences after a good win last time,however it is 0w-1p-10r when returning to the track within 30 days.(23 days today)

Kings Cross drops in class and will handle the ground,its still unexposed but is a tight enough price.

Oscar Magic hasnt had many starts over fences but needs to find at least 10Ibs of improvement on my figures,to get involved here.

Back Winston Churchill 12pts at 4.5 at paddys-UP(-12pts)

145 Lingfield-Baron Alco is the obvious starting point after winning its last two starts,the yard are going well and it should run well but it is up in trip and at the prices,its too short in my view.

Take it on with Crookstown,who has been mixing hurdling and chasing the last 2 seasons and ran a fine race back over hurdles last time,finishing behind a horse that has gone on to win since.

That performance tops my ratings and is the value here.

The horse is 3w-3p-9r when returning to the track within 30 days(14 here)

Gevrey Chamberlain has the ability to win this but is wildly inconsistent.

Trainer David Pipe has 2 runners at Doncaster but the stable jockey comes here instead,it would be no surprise if the money came.

Back Crookstown 10pts at 5.0 at Corals-UP(-10pts)Both winners make sense but neither selection have run their race unfortunately.(DT-22pts)

11th December

1140 Doncaster-Im surprised at the price of Little Windmill here.

It ran a decent race on its first go over fences last time and has to be a shorter price than it is,based on that rating.

The jockey is 6 from 29 when riding for this small yard.

Waltz Darling is the obvious favourite,it drops in class and is 2/2 during December but all its 4 chase starts suggest it can be beaten.

Cerrnunnos cant win this on whats it done so far but it always seems to be well supported,so its more than likely capable of a lot better.

Lord Wishes can be a bit in and out but would have a fair chance on its best hurdles ratings,however,its not come within 12Ibs of that over fences so far.

Dr Moloney is slightly overpriced and if running to its best ratings(Over further) then it wouldnt be without a chance.

Back Little Windmill 6pts at 10.0 at Boyles/Paddys/Betway(Accept 6.0) -Fell(-6pts)Still in with every chance when it came down coming into the straight.The way the riderless horse stayed on(minus jockey admittedly) suggested it wouldnt have been far away.Worth another chance I think.

10th December

1250 Newcastle-Ballycool is the obvious fav,it has the best recent form and the yard are going well but its creeping up the weights and I just feel this horse can be beaten and looks a fav to take on.

Nautical Twilight has only had 2 runs over fences and would have chances on its run 2 starts back but this horse is very inconsistent and looks best at Sedgefield.

Trust Thomas tends to struggle when its handicap rating goes over 111(115 today) while Pamak D`Airy has 4 course wins to its name and won this race last year.

It ran over a trip too far on its seasonal debut and i would expect better here but its around the same price I have it.

There are reasons to believe Ubaltique could outrun its odds.

It was pulled up on its first run this season but its record when away from the track for over 121 days is 0w-0p-5r,so it obviously needs a run to put it straight after a break.

It drops in grade(Class 4 2w-1p-6r) and this is its time of year(December/January 3w-2p-7r)

Perhaps most interesting of all is its record when carrying 11st12 or more(2w-2p-4r) which suggests its at its best when giving weight away to inferior opponents.

On its best runs last season,it would win this.

Back Ubaltique 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365/Betvictor(Accept 6.0)-UP(-7pts)

230 Warwick-Cyclop was a well backed favourite when coming down at the last fence,in a race it was winning easily.

This looks more competitive but from a handicapping perspective,it looks chucked in here if it can repeat that run.

Denali Highway was a well backed horse last time on its first run for 18 months but could only manage 2nd,it may regress on its 2nd start back.

Ballyrath has only had 1 run over fences and gets a visor fitted,any improvement could see it get involved.

Back Cyclop 16pts at 3.25(Already advised)-Won(+36pts)Hosed up!(DT+29pts)

Monthly Total+51pts

Running Total+8352.45pts

9th December