No Selections
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
5th December
1247 Chepstow-Le Coeur Net has won its last two races but I think that run will come to an end here.Its got a bit to find on my ratings and this is a quick turnaround from its last victory.
Faustinovich is unexposed over fences but needs to improve so I think Pistol Park is a bit of value.
It drops back in class and into a grade where its 1/1 and should go well on trip and ground that suits.
The horse I`m concerned about most is Elixir Du Gouet,who hasnt done much in 4 starts in the UK but had the ratings in France to figure.
Back Pistol Park 8pts at 5.0 at Hills-UP(-8pts)Drifted to twice the price and never involved.
430 Wolverhampton-The race Critical Thinking won last time,has worked out very well for a class 6 handicap,with the 2nd,3rd and 5th all winning since.This horse has won 7 times around here and is equally effective over this trip plus has a nice draw.
Kindergarten Kop is consistent,has won here and is 1w-1p-2r in this grade so should run well even if I have got it a slightly bigger price in my tissue.
Highest Mountain looks much too short to me,as its a very inconsistent horse and will need the blinkers to do the trick again.Broken Rifle and WhatwouldIknow are running well without winning but continue to creep up the weights.
Steal The Scene could run well after it showed signs of life behind the selection last time,however its 1/23 over this trip.
Back Critical Thinking 9pts at 5.5 Hills/Bet365-4th(-9pts)
6th December
1225 Kelso-This is very weak with most of the field out of form or looking poorly handicapped.
Vengeur De Guye is one of the few in decent nick but its much better known as a chaser.
Making its handicap debut,Saint Arvans looks to be well handicapped on my ratings and I would have it clear favourite.
Back Saint Arvans 10pts at 5.5 at bet365-Won(+45pts)Won nicely
320 Kelso-Trainer Sandy Thomson ,has won this prize in 4 of the last 5 years and looks to have another good candidate in Duc De Grissay.
Its only had 3 runs over fences and is clearly unexposed over fences and marathon distances.The trainer has a impressive 39% strike rate here with his chasers also.
Back Duc De Grissay 7pts at 7.0 at Various Bookies-Fell(-7pts)Just about to hit the front when fell at the last.Unbelievably unlucky(DT+38pts)
4th December
240 Exeter-Severano could be much better than its mark,after winning on its handicap debut,for a yard that has not been firing in the winners,so its much respected but its price looks tight with a couple of decent opponents against it.
Molineaux ran quite well on its seasonal reappearance but like so many from this yard, this season,it was still a few pounds behind last seaons best.
The clear value for me is Quick Wave,this horse is progressive and is a very strong stayer at this trip.
This trainer has won this race in 2 of the last 4 runnings and she has her horses in flying form.It should be around the 5/2 mark on my figures.
Back Quick Wave 2pts at 6.5 at Hills-Fell(-7pts)
3rd December
307 Leicester-Go as you Please has an obvious chance but im not keen on a horse thats finished 2nd in 3 of its last 5 starts and fell last time out.
Beet Topper ran well last time on its first start for a new yard and is respected.
Tierra Verde is unexposed over fences while Relkadam shhould run well dropping in class but at a big price,I cannot let Impulsive Leader go unbacked.Its got a rating from last season that would see it very competitive here and it possibly needed the run last time after a break.
The trainer has ony sent 2 horses here in recent times and won with one of them.
Back Impulsive Leader 2pts at 26.0 at bet365-UP(-2pts)No Show
315 Wincanton-This is wide open and although,it wouldnt get high marks for consistency,Frilly Frock has only had 2 runs over fences and has less convictions that most.
It won an ordinary race last time but posted a fair speed figure and if it runs its race then its the wrong price.
Ede`iff Elton came down last time but was running well and now drops in class while Paddys Runner should appreciate the longer trip.
Back Frilly Frock 6pts at 7.0 at Various Bookies(-6pts)Weak in the market and just gradually lost its place.
222 Market Rasen-Quite a bit of dead wood here and I like Pakies Dream,who comes here in good form ,for a yard and jockey that do well here.It finished behind a progressive horse last time over fences and should follow up.
The Manuscript is back on a winning mark but pulled up last time,it looks pretty short to me.
More Bucks is incredibly inconsistent but does have the ratings to take this,however you cannot rely on it and Fr Humphrey is well handicapped but is a 12yo now and thats probably why.
High Noon was in decent form the last time we saw it(263 days ago) but its 12Ibs higher than its last winning mark and could find things tough.
Back Pakies Dream 12pts at 4.0 at Hills-Fell(-12pts)Backed into 6/4 and fell at the first
207 Leicester-This is a pretty good race and it would be no surprise if the unexposed Known or A Distant Place proved good enough but on what theyve done so far,they dont appeal as that well handicapped and both look short enough to me.
The value looks to be Gortroe Joe ,who is still on a decent mark despite winning last time.That rating puts in with a favourites chance and it should be shorter.
Trans Express does worry me a bit though,as it was well backed last time ,has won on its only start and is 4w-1p-7r in December.Having said all that,I do wonder if something will be stronger at the business end of the race.
Back Gortroe Joe 9pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-Fell(-9pts)To complete another disastrous day,this one fell 2 out when in with every chance(DT-29pts)
2nd December
630 Kempton- 630 Kempton-Although stepping into graded company for the first time,I cant see past Johnny Drama here.
This horse is on a roll,with progressive ratings since getting on an all weather surface.Its 2/2 at Kempton and 4w-1p-6r in fields of 9 or less and De Sousa is 3w-1p-6r on it.
Red Verdon has won here but its carrying a penalty and that will make things tough while Sinjaari is consistent but its got a little to find on my figures.
Sextant makes not only its track debut but also its polytrack and stable debut although the stallion has only got a 6% strike rate here.
Back Johnny Drama 20pts at 3.25 at Bet365-Won(+45pts)Strong ride in the finish but made possible by being in the right place throughout by De Sousa
Running Total+183.25pts
1st December
223 Lingfield-Big Penny is in good form but the recent improvement has been over further and on generally slightly better ground than this.I can see it running well but looks a little short to me.
Corinto has been off for nearly 2 years but has one rating that gives it a big chance,the market will tell its tale.Darlyn looks to have it to do on my figures ,so I like the handicap debutant Zhiguli.
Its best rating,came last season in a decent maiden hurdle at Newbury,over this trip and on heavy.
Its 2 runs this season have been over shorter and on better ground,I dont think its a coincidence that its back up in trip for this.If it runs close to that run from last season then it looks well handicapped.
Back Zhiguli 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365/Hills-3rd(-12pts)Never really put in the race
253 Lingfield-Finnegans Garden won this race last year and looks to have been teed up for a repeat here.
Its form figures at this track read 1-1-2-1-3-2 ,its 5w-1p-8r on heavy ground .5w-3p-10r over this trip and all 10 of its career wins were in fields of 7 runners or less,as is the case here while its 0 from 16 in fields of 8 or more.You couldnt call it well handicapped but its got everything else in its favour.
Vincenzo Mio continues to run well but hasnt won since 2013 and a lot of these find getting their head in front quite difficult.Ive got Away For Slates slightly better at shorter,so probably the biggest danger is Aintree My Dream ,who has been knocking at the door.
Back Finnegans Garden 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies(-12pts)Never touched a twig all the way round and yet the jockey allowed the front 2 to get away without putting it under pressure?Not the finest rides today.(Dt-24pts)
30th November
115 Fakenham-Captain Speaking has been progressive since its started over fences and you have to respect its chance but its up in class (0w-0p-6r in class 4 over hurdles) and also didnt hit the frame when racing around here before,so it may be vulnerable.
Graystown is also up in class and its recent good form has been at Hexham,not exactly a similar track to this and its better on softer ground.
Big Chief Benny is lightly raced over fences and this trainer does very well here with his horses but its a hold up horse and thats not ideal at this track but it will like the better ground.
The value has to be Thomas Todd,who drops in class and ran well on its seasonal debut ,on ground much softer than it prefers.Its form figures around here read 1st-2nd-3rd-2nd ,for a yard that have won with 3 of their last 10 runners.
Back Thomas Todd 10pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-10pts)Backed into 15/8 but found the progressive winner too much to handle.
Monthly Total+4.25pts A very ordinary month comes to an end.Just couldnt seem to put a sequence together.
Running Total+162.25pts
29th November
1210 Carlisle-Tom Symonds has got his horses in great form(operating at a strike rate of 41% in the last month) and his improving Meteorite should go close here.
It ran well on its seasonal debut but probably found Plumpton a bit sharp for it,so this stiffer track should suit with the drop in class an added bonus.It should be favourite.
Sarosota Star is also improving but the much softer going could be an issue while Coole Well drops in class but has struggled to get its head in front plus looks to have a lot of competition for the lead.
Amberose could be a danger as its 2 from 4 around here but it is inconsistent.
Back Meteorite 8pts at 5.5 at Bet365-UP(-8pts)Well backed but ran poorly
250 Carlisle-Rath An Luir boasts a progressive and unexposed profile and make an impressive start to its chasing career by winning at this track last time.
The rating it posted suggests its got at least 10Ibs in hand of its mark and it really should improve for experience and the longer trip,given it runs it race.This is a good race but it should be around the even money mark.
Up Helly Aa King is 3 from 5 over fences and 2/2 here.I`m not so sure how much its got in hand now though but could improve for the longer trip.
Ashfield Paddy and SirWillaimWallace are both unexposed over fences but need to show a lot more.
Back Rath An Luir 25pts at 2.75 at Bet365-Won(+43.75)Looks progressive and stays very well(DT+35.75pts)
28th November
307 Bangor-This is weak and looks a decent opportunity for Tipalong Tyler.
Its still lightly raced and has produced 3 decent efforts of late and then isnt many in this that can say that.
As long as it doesnt get too soft,it really should run well especially as its dropping in class and is also into a mares only race for the first time for a while.
Quiet Penny hasnt raced for nearly 2 years but makes its debut for a new yard while Rollercoaster is another to have moved stables and that could have a positive effect but it needs too.
Back Tipalong Tyler 12pts at 4.33 at Various Bookies-UP(-12pts)Ground went against it despite it being well backed.
1205 Doncaster-Calin Du Brizais has managed to be dropped 22Ibs in 5 runs this season and although,an infrequent winner,it showed a lot more last time and that rating stands out here.
There looks to be lots of pace on and that should suit as it stays well.
Rose Dobbin as won this race twice in recent years,so her Geordielandgangsta could go well and I can see the chance of Furius De Ciergues but it looks short enough to me.
Back Calin Du Brizais 5pts at 8.0 at Bet365-3rd(-5PTS)Plodded on ito 3rd without every threatening.
150 Newbury-The progressive ratings of Tea Clipper suggest its better than this grade and im surprised it isnt even shorter in the betting,despite this being quite competitve.
The trainer has sent out 4 winners from his last 14 runners and boasts a 30% strike rate with his hurdlers at this track.
On The Wild Side makes its handicap debut and is up in class and trip ,on ground faster than its recent runs.It looks on a fairly tough mark although could improve but its trainer has an unusually poor record here,which is also the case for Flash The Steel,there cannot be many courses where Dan Skelton has a 3% strike rate with his hurdlers but thats the case here.
Back Tea Clipper 12ts at 4.33 at Various Bookies-5th(-12pts)Massively disappointing run.
225 Newbury-It may not be good enough but my ratings suggest Pisgah Pike is a crazy price here.
Last time was a career best run and if it can improve again then ive got being competitive.
There are some lightly raced,progressive horses on show here,so it is a warm race but its the wrong price.
Back Pisgah Price 2pt Each Way at 21.0 at Bet365/Betfred-UP(-4pts)Halved in price but never involved in a messy race.(DT-19pts)
335 Newbury-Moonlighter ran a career best on its seasonal return and with the slight drop in trip suiting,Hopefully it will make them all go from the front.
It won on its only start at this track over fences and with its main market rival Ibleo needing it softer,im expecting a big run.
Zanza is lightly raced over fences and could figure but im hoping the selection can put pressure on its novicey jumping.
Back Moonlighter 12ts at 4.33 at Betvictor/Paddys-Fell(-12pts)To round off a shocker of a day,took off too early and had a heavy fall(DT-48pts)
27th November
125 Doncaster-Competitive race although nothing with a compelling profile.
Dr Sanderson heads the market but although lightly raced,it looks to need to improve on my figures.
Nietzsche drops in class and should run well but has mostly raced at shorter distances than this in its career while Cracking Find is slowly finding its feet,its not very consistent.
The Unit would have chances ,if coming on for its run after a long layoff but it could easily bounce after such an absence,so at a fair price,the lightly raced Pogue,looks too big to me.
It chased home a very progressive horse last time out and that horse came out and won again on Monday,it produced its best rating over this course and distance and although creeping up in class,it should go well.
Back Pogue 6pts at 7.0 at Bet365/Betfair/Paddys-2nd(-6pts)Ran well,no excuses.
300 Newbury-I find it interesting that Paul Nicholls,after winning this race from 2009 to 2013 ,hasnt ran another horse in it since.It must be significant that he sends McFabulous to take his chance here.
Although yet to prove its stamina,this horse is seriously progressive and the trainer must think it will stay.
On my ratings,the favourite Paisley Park(despite taking a weak renewal of this last season),didnt run to within 10Ibs of the previous season efforts and signed off with a poor run at the Cheltenham Festival.You cannot argue with its strike rate but I do think its vulnerable to an improving sort.
Thyme Hill is still unexposed and should be involved.
Back McFabulous 14pts at 3.75 at Bet365 -3rd(-14pts)Either didnt quite stay or wasnt good enough.(DT-20pts)
26th November
141 Taunton-Two lightly raced horses head the market in High Change and Peckinpah but behind that,this looks fairly weak.
The dropping in class First Quest looks overpriced and is back on its last winning mark.
It wants this better ground and im hoping the jockey will sit it handy as there doesnt look to be much pace in the race unless the blinkers fire up High Change.It should run well.
Back First Quest 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365-4th(-6pts)Nicely backed and looked threatening but just went noowhere.
311 Taunton-On its second start over fences,De Barley Basket produced a rating that suggests its better than a class 5 animal.With more improvement likely,Im surprised it isnt around the 5/4 mark.
The obvious danger is Write It Down,whos pretty consistent but lacks the potential of the selection.
Back De Barley Basket 25pts at 2.62 at Bet365-Won(+56.25*BOG)At last,a fine front running ride from a proper jockey in Dave Bass.Never looked like losing.(DT+50.25pts)
Monthly Total+46.25pts
Running Total+204.50
25th November
225 Wetherby-I can see the chance of Smarty Wild,as a lightly raced chaser from last years winning stable but it looks a little short to me especially as its done all its winning going right handed so far.
The value looks to be Some Reign ,who was so unlucky not to win over course and distance last time out ,when coming down at the last.That run continued a progressive set of ratings and if continuing in that vein then its a big runner here.
Joke Dancer drops in grade and trip ,which will help it but the yard continue to struggle for winners.Ballyvic Boru is 2 from 4 at this track but was a fortunate winner last time out and is on a career high mark now.
Back Some Reign 10 pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-10pts)Another to run well without prevailing,possibly misjudged the ride and gave it a little too much to do.
320 Hereford-For a horse,that historically has always needed a run after a absence,it was a fine effort put up by Eclair De Guye on its seasonal debut 35 days ago and if it comes on a little for that then it really should run well here.
I always think Bryony Frost is a great jockey over fences and she has an encouraging 25% strike rate when riding for this yard over the big obstacles.
Elan De Balme is lightly raced and has to be a danger but does have its stamina to prove while Cuban Pete,although is 2 from 4 at this track,it seems to be better after a long break,as its 0w-0p-8r when returning to the track within 60 days.
Clondaw Rigger does have chances as it stays well and has won here but it is a little exposed now.
Back Eclair De Guye 3pts at 4.5 at Bet365-UP(-10pts)Never in it at any stage.(DT-20pts)
24th November
800 Wolverhampton-Id prefer to see the trainer having more winners but Passional ran well for him on its stable debut 5 days ago and the same horse should go well here ,dropping in trip.
This horse is one of the least exposed in this field and hopefully will be handy before using its stamina late on.The added 5Ib claim from the jockey can only help.
Trouser The Cash dropped down to this trip to break its duck last time out at Chelmsford but ran below form on its previous run here while Qaaraat is often there or thereabouts but has little in hand and is thoroughly exposed.
Thegreyvtrain will probably try and make all but is just 2 from 35 in its career.
Back Passional 10pts at 4.5 at Bet365-2nd(-10pts)Fell out the stalls then couldnt get a run.Very Unlucky.
23rd November
245 Ludlow-Mr Washington looks a little short to me here,Up in class and on different ground.
Take it on with Get The Appeal,who was travelling best when coming down 2 out last time out.The winner of that race has followed up since and Im surprised this horse isnt favourite.
Towards The Dawn could improve for further and is respected but the trainer has only a 4% strike rate here.
Back Get The Appeal 10pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-3rd(-10pts)Very weak in the betting but ran quite well.
235 Kempton-Locks Corner is up in the weights back over fences but its improving fast and the drop back in trip looks ideal.This horse is 4w-1p-5r since being fitted with cheek pieces and although this is competitive,Its difficult to see it not running very well.
Getareason has only had 2 runs over fences and is a contender while Templepark is very consistent but doesnt look to have a lot in hand.Mythical Clouds ran its best race over this course and distance and has a chance also.
Back Locks Corner 14pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+42pts)Really progressive horse that is a strong stayer at this trip and won well.
715 Chelmsford-Im surprised the in form and improving Smokey isnt favourite here.
It won on its only start here and is 3w-1p-7r in this class and its got a nice draw here.
Indian Pursuit and Jorvik Prince are both course specialists and head the dangers.
Back Smokey 10pts at 4.5 at Skybet/Betvictor-3rd(-10pts)(DT+22pts)
Monthly Total+20.25pts
Running Total+178.25pts
22nd December
1248 Uttoxeter-Providing this doesnt come too soon after its comeback run from a long absence then Princess Roxy holds strong claims here.
Its not only lightly raced fences (1 run) but its a very unexposed in total(Just 7 runs under rules).Its rating on its chase debut exceeds anything else in this race and the trainer has been in good form recently too.I am expecting some good support for this horse and the current prices are big value.
City Never Sleeps is also improving and heads the dangers while Scartare is consistent but is totally exposed and is 0/33,so its unlikely its a danger despite some decent ratings.
Rintulla finished a fair way behind the selection on its chase debut but could improve although it clearly needs to.Louse Talk Looks better over hurdles than fences(0/12) while Skipping On is 2 from 3 in this grade but hasnt won for 2 years.
Back Princess Roxy 10pts at 5.0 at Betvictor/Betfair/Paddys-UP(-10pts)Moved into it 4 out but didnt seem to go anywhere although not beaten far.
153 Uttoxeter-Misty Whisky and Peace Prevails are both lightly raced and head the market,it wouldnt be a surprise if either took this but the former has started finishing second while the latter has to improve on my figures.
Take them on with Fair Kate,whos won in a higher grade than this before and the trainer has won with 3 of his last 4 runners of late and also has a 24% strike rate here.
Back Fair Kate 4pt at 10.0 at Betvictor/Betfair/Paddys-UP(-4pts)
20th November
615 Newcastle-Dandys Gold looks well overpriced here.This horse has only had the 5 runs in England and drops in class.
Its 3 runs at this track read 1st-2nd-2nd and I like the booking of Tyler Heard on top,who will take off 7Ibs and is 3/7 for this yard.It should be half the price it currently is.
Fantasy Keeper is the obvious danger while Gunmetal hasnt hit the frame in its 2 starts at this track,so looks underpriced to me.Outrage has good course form but is maybe better att shorter.
Back Dandys Gold 5pt at 11.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-5pts)Disappointing run
140 Chepstow-For me,this is a 2 horse race.Kapga De Lily could stroll away with this as the rating it posted last time,shows its ahead of its current rating.
However,its up in class and distance plus also ridden by a fairly inexperienced jockey,who has just a 5% strike rate over fences,I would have it bigger in the market and if Fergal O`Brien can perform his magic with his new recruit No No Juliet then this is a big runner.
The trainer operates at a 30% strke rate with experienced horses on their first run for his yard and its stamina is assured as it stays a bit further.Its only had 4 runs itself over fences and 2 of those ratings definitely suggest its got a few pounds in hand of its current mark.
Miss Zip will love the ground but 3 miles is a question mark while Silent Steps doesnt look well handicapped.
Back No No Juliet 11pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-3rd(-11pts)Looked a big danger entering the straight but weakened incredibly quickly.(DT-16pts)
19th November
233 Market Rasen-Against a bunch of mainly exposed chasers,Outcrop makes a fair bit of appeal here.
It posted a fine rating last time ,on its chase debut and the drop in trip can only help its chance.
I`m a big fan of the jockey Sean Quinlan and Ive got this around the 13/8 mark.
Fort De L`Ocean ran well over hurdles last time but ive got it a few pounds behind the selection on its chase runs while Cesar Collonges in very inconsistent and surely wants it softer than this.
Dallas Cowboy could be the danger if it put its seasonal debut run behind it as its got very good Market Rasen form but it did pull up last time.
Back OutCrop 15pts at 3.75 at Various Bookies-Won(+41.25pts)The write up concerning the jockey wasnt misplaced.Perfectly timed run to lead after the last.
Monthly Total+26.25pts
Running Total+184.25pts
18th November
725 Kempton-On to Victory won a big 12f handicap on soft ground last time out but this is over further and on a different surface,so it looks a bit short to me.
Rock Eagle has been running well at a variety of trips and 2 miles could be ideal but its never ran on an All Weather track yet.
Soghan`s 2 mile form figures 2nd-1st-1st catch my eye and with those 2 wins both coming on the all weather,I would definitely have this horse shorter in the betting,particularly as it won off a 2Ibs higher mark last year.
True Destiny is closely tied in with the selection based on their Wolverhampton run 2 starts back but its since ran a stinker back on turf and is 8Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Back Soghan 8pts at 6.0 at Betfair and Paddys-2nd(-8pts)Led all the way until the final 5 yards for a pretty gut wrenching defeat.
17th November
233 Fakenham-Midnights Gift has spent more than half its career in grade 1 races and performed with credit,so this drop to a class 3 will be welcome.Although giving weight away,this horse won on its only start at this track,for a trainer who operates at a 44% here in recent times.
I have got it as favourite,so it looks value to me.
Getariver is unexposed over hurdles after only 4 starts but couldnt manage to win a class 4 last time,so it needs to cope with the rise in class while Nordican Bleue and Fantastic Ms Fox boast similar profiles but both look on a fairly tough marks for their handicap debuts.
Back Midnights Gift 11pts at 5.0 at Betfair and Paddys-Won(+44pts)Fine strong ride by Tom Cannon.
303 Fakenham-Its possible Goldencard has completely gone but is so well handicapped now,that it wont take a lot for it to bounce back.
It won a race last November off an incredible 24Ibs higher and turns up at a track where trainer Christian Williams has a 41% strike rate,there cannot be many places where he has a similar record.The trainer puts blinkers on for the first time and if they produce something better than of late then it should be far too good for these.
Muilean Na Madog heads the market and I can see its obvious chances but backing up twice in a week after over 600 days off,will not be easy.
Wisecracker should run its race but is 1/30 now and is 9Ibs higher than for that win while Glimpse Of Gold looks better over hurdles than fences but has been in good form.Champion Chase has some reasonable ratings but a record of 0 from 24 tells its own story.
Back Goldencard 4pts at 12.0 At William Hill and Betvictor-2nd(-4pts)Strange betting heat and race.The selection was punted into 3/1 before drifting back out 12/1.It actually ran quite well and isnt finished yet but I didnt consider the winner and nor did the betting market.(DT+40pts)
Monthly Total-7pts
Running Total+151pts
16th November
300 Leicester-This is a competitive race and a few have chances.
Cape of Fear has been fav on all 3 of its chase starts and would hold decent chances on its run 2 starts back but ran way below par last time.Station Master is 3w-2p-6r in this class but refused to race last time.
Poker School has been around for ages but has never won over this trip while Boughtbeforelunch is consistent and should run well but is 1 from 20 and is 22Ibs higher than that win.
Big Difference should run well although ive got it needing to improve a little to take this.
I like Bandsman,who ran well last time over a trip too short and ground too soft.Its 4w-2p-9r in class 4 races like this and Dan Skelton is 5 out of 5 with his chasers here in the last 2 years.
Back Bandsman 7pts at 7.5 at Bet365-PU(-7pts)Everything seemed fine until weakening quickly down the back straight.
220 Plumpton-Court Duty won a poor race at Ffos Las 8 days ago and if it backs that up then it will go close but it will be no surprise to me if first of all,drifts in the betting and gets beat.
Bad Boy Du Pouldu has been consistent around Fontwell recently but is 0w-1p-5r on soft/heavy ground.
Le Coeur Net has the ratings to figure but is a tight enough price so the value for me is Wenceslaus,who is no gimme on the figures but returns to its favourite track(Plumpton 2/2 over fences 3/4 overall) on ground its fine on but I really like a record of 3w-1p-4r when returning to the track within 15 days like today and the refitting of cheekpieces(2w-0p-4r in them)
Back Wenceslaus 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365-Fell(-7pts)Every chance and just in the lead when fell 2 out.Very Frustrating(DT-14pts)
15th November
315 Fontwell-This will take a bit of getting and I like the chances of Christmas In April.
The last time we saw this horse it went off favourite for a class 1 handicap and now reappears 2 grades lower,at a track where it won on its only previous visit.
A record of 3 from 6 on soft/heavy ground means theres no issues there while over distances from 3m2+ its a very solid 3w-1p-5r and as its won after a break before then I`d be very disappointed if it didnt go very close.
Cloudy Glen is the main market rival but has to prove its stamina while Doing Fine ran poorly last time and is a 12yo who is running off a 2Ib higher mark than its ever won off.
Diable De Sivola has a win record of 1 from 22 and that win was over hurdles in 2016.
Gangster is inconsistent and 0w-1p-9r on undulating tracks like this.
Back Christmas In April 16pts at 3.25 at Various Bookies-2nd(-16pts)Cloudy Glen hosed up.
14th November
333 Wetherby-After this race has finished I could be regretting the fact I couldnt stay away from a 12yo that hasnt won since 2017 but I keep coming back to Silver Tassie in this.
In 6 of its last 8 races its produced a rating that is superior to its handicap mark,suggesting it can win again.
It only went down by a neck and a head in this race last year but this looks a much weaker renewal.
You can find holes everywhere you look in this,Eceparti heads the market but is not well handicapped and has to prove its stamina on ground that could be really soft by racetime.
I make Cesar Et Rosalie the main danger as its 3 from 9 in this grade but consistency is not its strongpoint.
Lithic is 0 from 19 over fences,Chase the Wind is out of form while the unexposed Commit or Quit could figure but to my eye,this trip looks too far at the moment.
Back Silver Tassie 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-UP(-8pts)Rank bad analysis.
Monthly Total-17pts
Running Total+141pts
13th November
233 Newcastle-The further Chanting Hill went on its chase debut,the better it got so this stiff track should help to do itself justice.
That bare rating gives it an outstanding chance of following up and thats without even adding in the expected improvement.If its still in touch 3 out then I would expect it to power home.
I would definitely have it around 6/4 chance for a yard among the winners.
PrettyLittlething has only won one race since 2017 and looks a but underpriced to me while Tb Broke Her could enjoy a solo up front and if it doesnt bounce on its second run back then it looks the main danger.
Tokaramore has to prove its stamina and Liffeydale Dreamer is still lightly raced but does need to improve.
Back Chanting Hill 16pts at 3.25 at Bet365 & Hills-Fell(-16pts)Smashed into 6/5 and going well when fell 5 out.
12th November
215 Ludlow-Theres no doubt theres potential in the unexposed chasers at the top of the market but Lord Bryan looks well overpriced to me here.
This horse was only just beaten 2 runs ago under similar conditions before getting bogged down on heavy ground last time.It is on a lengthy losing run but from a ratings perspective,it has to be supported.
Back Lord Bryan 5pts at 13.0 at Bet365-3rd(-5pts)Ran quite well but got left behind.
240 Taunton-Pontresina is lightly raced over fences and won well last time but my ratings suggest ,its massively underpriced here.
Irish Prophecy has been in good form but going up 7Ib for finishing second last time ,is hardly ideal.
I like Looksnowtlikebrian.Its been running itself into form,is 5w-2p-10r with Richard Johnson onboard and 2 from 5 going right handed.
Back Looksnowtlikebrian 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365-2nd(-7pts)Pontresina was vulnerable but the winner won easy although we were never put in the race at any stage.
415 Taunton-Since moving into handicaps and having wind surgery,Outonpatrol`s form has moved up a level.This horse is improving and is clear top rated with possibly more to come.
The 5Ib claim of Alexander Thorne can only be a bonus as well,it should be favourite unless Dan Skelton produces some magic out of Shes Gina on its first run for the yard.
Rose to Fame is 2/2 at this track and the yard are flying,so I can see its chance but its price looks tight to me while Frau Georgia has been running well but is now 17Ibs higher than its last winning mark.
Back Outonpatrol 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-2nd(-8pts)Beat everything I thought was a danger but Richard Johnson always seems to beat me while never riding a winner for me.(DT-20pts)
11th November
1235 Ayr-Crack Du Ninian is greatly respected here but if theres any time to get with Those Tiger Feet then surely this is it.
Kim Bailey doesnt venture to Scotland very often and certainly not for a class 5 handicap like this.
The horse is 2w-0p-3r in this grade but 2 from 2 when returning from a break of over 120 days like today and 2 from 2 in November.I would expect David Bass to make plenty of use of it as it stays further and could hopefully run the finish out of the fav.
Back Those Tiger Feet 14pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-Won(+35pts)Got a solo upfront as hoped and picked up well when they got close late on
1245 Bangor-Big Chief Benny and Subcontinent are unexposed over fences and could make the required improvement to take this but I like the solid Glance Back.
When we last saw this horse it was in great form and is clear top rated on my figures.
Its finished 1st and 2nd in its 2 runs at this track ,is 4w-2p-9r on soft/heavy ground ,2w-1p-4 over this trip and 3w-1p-8r in fields of 7 or less like today.
Back Glance Back 11pts at 4.33 at Various Bookies-NON RUNNER
333 Bangor-Mint Condition is up in class but is improving fast and its rating last time on its handicap debut suggests its better than this grade.
The trainer has a 21% strike rate at this track but that increases with her handicap hurdlers.
Chirico Vallis is on a roll and should give the selection a good toe into the race while Ballymoy has been a force in this grade before but has lost its way while Christopher Wood moves up in trip but is hardly well handicapped,so needs to improve for it.
Back Mint Condition 18pts at 3.0 at Bet365-Won(+36pts)Several heart attacks down the straight as it went to the front then got headed but battled back to win close home(DT+71pts)
Monthly Total+27pts
Running Total+185pts
10th November
323 Lingfield-This is a decent little race but its also 2 grades lower than the race Getaround finished fourth in last time out.
It now makes its handicap debut and moves back up in trip,to the distance where it posted its top rated performance from last season,add in the valuable 5Ibs that jockey Brian Carver is taking off and I expect a big run from this lightly raced horse.
As I See it also drops a grade and should run well but is now 8Ibs higher than its last winning mark.
Storm Arising doesnt get much respite from the handicapper and will need to turn up fit and well to hold any chance while Potters Hedger is now off a career high mark and has a patchy record when fresh.
The biggest danger looks to be recent course winner,Robin Gold,whos thriving for its current trainer but it does have ts stamina to prove and this is the highest class its raced in.
Back Getaround 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365-4th(-12pts)Jumped well but appeared fairly laboured throughout,so no surprise they went past it at the last.
8th November
355 Ffos Las-You have to respect the hat trick seeking MouseintheHouse,whos 2 from 3 at this track but my ratings suggest,another jolt of improvement may be needed to take this.
Donatello Mail has its first run for Tom Symonds and hes booked the champion jockey for the ride,so clearly a good run is expected but the trainer is 0/19 at this track.
I like the unexposed Cobaltic ,who is top rated on its latest run,.That was its first run over fences,so you would expect more to come for a trainer who is operating at a 24% in the last two weeks.
Back Cobaltic 12pts at 4.0 at Skybet/WilliamHill
1240 Sandown-5 of the 8 runners are stepping up in class here but the only one dropping in grade is Espion.
This horse actually went off fav for a 13 runner class 2 handicap last time but made a bad blunder halfway round and that ruined its chance.This is much easier and the trainer also drops in trip ,back to the distance of its top rated run from last season.I expect a much better showing here.
First Lord De Cuet could not be considered well handicapped on my figures although its still early days for it while Espalion is in good form but has ran at least 7Ibs below its mark on its 3 runs on soft ground,so these conditions and grade(Class 3 0w-0p-3r) are not ideal.
Twenty Twenty is much better after a recent run(31 days+ away from the track 0w-1p-5r) and is off a career high mark here.
Back Espion 12pts at 4.5 at Skybet/Betvictor
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