150 Southwell-8 furlongs around this track clearly suits Straitouttacompton(Form figures 1-5-1-1) and 3w-1p-6r in this class plus there should be plenty of pace to go at,this horse should hopefully break the current poor run.
14th February
13th February
545 Wolverhampton-Arafi has been in good form and is improving but its price looks tight to me with no track form to its name.
Love Destiny is another who was going well until turning in a below par effort last time and once again,its looks underpriced on its first visit here.
I like Jackstar,who drops back into a class 5 for the first time in nearly 2 years.It won that race over this course and distance and represents a yard that have a 24% strike rate in the last few weeks,its a big price.
Critical Thinking is another overpriced,as its very consistent around this track and has the ratings to be there at the finish.
Back Jackstar 6pts at 7.0 at Various Bookies-4th(-6pts)Fav far too good.
11th February
730 Newcastle-It seems odd that a few at the top of the market have questions to answer on the distance front.
Broctune Red is consistent but likes it here but its raced over further generally and is now 10Ibs higher than its last winning mark while Dramista is another that appears to prefer further.
Thats not the case for Bobby Joe Leg,who drops in class despite winning last time,its got 4 course wins to its name and its running style suits this track,so i expect it to be handy in a race without too much obvious pace and a host of horses that prefer further,it should be clear favourite.
Back Bobby Joe Leg 14pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-3rd(-14pts)Another to have run miles below par.
10th February
615 Wolverhampton-Beat Le Bon would be a big threat here if it had some track form and any type of record after a break but it hasnt and it looks underpriced to me.
Keyser Soze cleans up in lower grades than this but is an infrequent winner when appearing in this class and is another without track form.
I can see Revolutionise going well as its in good form but for me ,this is all about Tranchee.
Its top rated,has finished 1st and 2nd(Beaten a Short Head) in its 2 runs at this track,is 2 from 3 in fields of 7 or less like this and is 2w-4p-6r in this class.
It should take the beating.
Back Tranchee 20pts at 3.0 at Bet365-2nd(-20pts)Backed into odds on and looked the clear winner after moving to the front 2f out but seemed to find very little.Another disappointment in a tough month so far.
Monthly Total-65pts
Running Total+314pts
9th February
7th February
355 Musselburgh-This is quite competitive but the lightly raced Hills Of Connemara appeals the most.
This horse won nicely on only its second chase start and is also unexposed at this trip.It looks a decent price to me.
Eagle Rock likes it here with 3 course wins but tends to operate better at a lower level while Event Of Sivola places more often than anything else.
Big Difference is yet to break its duck over fences and probably wants better ground.Definite Wisdom appeals as the biggest danger as its 2 from 3 here and a late blunder last time cost it.
Back Hills Of Connemara 8pts at 6.5 at Paddys/Betvictor
425 Musselburgh-There has been money for Gallaghers Cross but its difficult to see why.Unless its been transformed since we last saw it then it looks a favourite to take on.(Trainer 0/17 at the track)
Golden Emblem won nicely last time but its up in class,ratings and trip,never my favourite combination.
Arnica is 0/11 now while Get The Appeal represents top connections but they seem to be scrapping around trying to find its best trip.Bollingerandkrug is unexposed and moves into handicap company but needs to improve on what its shwn so far,so I like Bullion Boss,who`s ratings suggest its improving sharply.
It likes this track and should have a nice pace to run at.
Back Bullion Boss 7pts at 6.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-UP(-15pts)Two poor runs
6th January
338 Wetherby-A few unexposed ones in here making their handicap debut but none appear as well treated as Wetlands.
This horse has only had 3 runs and posted a fine rating and the best speed figure in the race when winning last time out,it also appeared to be very well suited to heavy ground,which is a bonus at the moment.I would definitely have it in shorter.
Dharan and Witness Protection are the other handicap debutantes but neither appear that well in.
Laskadine looks short to me,although it won last time,that was in 2 grades lower,its 0w1p-6r in fields of 9 or less and hasnt managed a single place in 5 starts in this class.
Back Wetlands 3pts at 3.75 at Skybet/Betvictor-Meeting Abandoned
240 Musselburgh-Encountering soft ground over fences for the first time,saw Rikoboy produce a career best and posted easily the best rating in this race.
If it can back that up then theres no doubt its still well handicapped and its interesting this is the first runner this trainer has sent here for 5 years.
The obvious fly in the ointment is the difficult to assess Rockadenn,who represents a yard that have won the last 3 runnings of this.It hasn`t raced over fences here in the UK yet however,so although its respected,its a tight price.
Back Rikoboy 2pts at 5.0 at Skybet/Betvictor/Willaim Hill-2nd(-10pts)Well backed into 5/2 and held every chance but got beat a neck.
5th February
110 Lingfield-Unforgiving Minute drops back into a class where its tough to beat(8w-1p-11r)
Add to that 5 course wins and 10 distance wins and surely this must go close with leading rider Adam Kirby onboard.
Doc Sportello has a ratings chance but this doesnt appear to be its track,having only beaten 7 rivals in 5 runs here,it surely has to be vulnerable.
Mindurownbusiness has easily the back class to win this but hasnt been seen for nearly 5 years!
Back Unforgiving Minute 16pts at 4.0 at Bet365-Won(+48pts)Hammered into 5/4 and always looked like winning.
Monthly Total-2pts
Running Total+377pts
4th February
100 Wincanton-Numitor is a fair market leader here and if it runs like it did last time on its chase debut then it will be tough to beat but there is likely to be competition for the lead and this is a vastly different track to Ffos Las,where it won last time.
Take it on with Jackson Hill ,who did us a favour last time,when coming from well off the pace to win over course and distance.With the likely strong pace,it should be able to creep into it and be produced late.
Back Jackson Hill 6pts at 8.5 at Betvictor-2nd(-6pts)Everything panned out as I thought except Numitor stuck on too strong.
600 Chelmsford-On its first start at this track last time,Fly The Nest produced a rating that gives it strong claims here.
Its been in consistent form of late and should be bang there at the finish.
Casina Di Notte is a danger but the jockey has only ridden in 1 race before and that has to be a worry.
Back Fly The Nest 7pts at 6.0 at Paddys/Betfair-2nd(-7pts)beaten in a photo(DT-13pts)
3rd February
305 Warwick-This is a good race but Zambella boasts an unexposed and progressive profile and it should be favourite on my figures.
It won on its only start at this track and should be able to just sit off ,what could be a contested pace.
Happy Diva has the back class to take this but its best ratings have come around Cheltenham.
Annie Mc is respected but its a tight enough price for me while Momella is in good form but has to improve on my ratings.
Back Zambella 11pts at 4.33 at Bet365-2nd(-11pts)Nicely backed and ran a good race(Touched 1.3 in running) but was outstayed.
525 Kempton-Its last 2 ratings have shown Viva Serendipity is ready to strike again.
Its ran above its mark in 2 of its 3 runs at this track and is back on its last winning mark.In fields of 11 runners or less its record is 7w-5p-20r.As a hold up performer,its need a decent pace to run at and if it gets it then it should go close.
Starshiba makes a quick return to the track after its latest win ,its up in class and up in trip(not my favourite combination) and could be vulnerable.
Sanaadh is running well also but its run 2 shockers on its previous attempts at this trip.
Back Viva Serendipity 12pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-12pts)Was well placed but just went nowhere when it mattered.Very disappointing.(DT-23pts)
2nd February
540 Southwell-If it gets out from the outside stall,theres a chance that Samovar can dominate this and make all.
There isnt a great amount of pace on and this horse is in great form at the moment plus it has 7 course wins to its name,I would definitely have it as favourite.
That honour goes to Nick Vedder,who is also in great form and is 3/3 over this course and distance,however this is a rise in class for it and my ratings suggest,it needs to improve again to beat the selection.
Vandad has some decent ratings but not on this specialist track and it is 0/14 in its career.
Excessable is consistent but is possibly in the handicappers grip at the moment.
Back Samovar 9pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-9pts)Fell out the stalls unfortunately then rushed up and weakened badly.Worst run its produced in a while.
I did have my eye on Three C`s (4.40 Southwell) as it returns to a track where its finished 1-1-2-1 but my hopes of a fair price when the money came very early.
1st February
300 Sedgefield-Sigurd has found a new lease of life recently and based on its latest rating,the winning hasnt stopped yet.
Its still nicely handicapped on its form from a few seasons ago and its 3w-1p-7r in todays headgear.
Its a very solid market leader.
Event Of Sivola was running well before falling last time but its record stands at 1/17 now.Derrick D`Anjou holds chances if you go back far enough.
Back Sigurd 12pts at 3.0 at Bet365/Betvictor
710 Wolverhampton-Lotte Marie looks short to me here,its up 2 grades and ran a shocker on its only start here,I think it provides some value elsewhere.
Red Poppy is still unexposed and should go well but its around the right price.
Unlike many in this,Stay Classy is a regular in this grade and is the only runner to have won up to this class.Its been a little below par lately but this could be run to suit with a strong pace up front,its the wrong price.
Back Stay Classy 5pts at 10.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-5pts)
31st January
410 Wolverhampton-Ths is wide open and a distinct lack of regular winners on show.
The whole field have only won 6 times between them in the last 365 days and two of those were by Madrinho.
This horse has also won here before and drops back in grade,off its last winning mark.Add in Ben Curtis taking the ride(20% strike rate for the yard) and this horse looks a big price.
On pure figures then Comeatchoo has a good chance but a record of 2/45 says it all,it may do it but i`m happy to miss it at the prices.
Back Madrinho 4pts at 12.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-UP(-4pts)Fell out and never involved,ironically Comeatchoo drifted to a good price but still a good month.
Monthly Total+165.25pts
Running Total+389.00pts
30th January
205 Doncaster-Theres no doubt in my mind where the value lies in this and thats with Rayna`s World.
On my figures,this lightly raced mare has the ratings to easily outrun its odds.
The trainer has won the last 2 runnings of this,so knows what it takes and the fact this horse revels in very soft ground can only be a positive.It finished 3rd in the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year and actually finished in front of the likely favourite here,Floressa, that day.
That horse also has a question to answer after running well below par on its only start on soft ground so far.Miranda has been fairly progressive but was beaten in a handicap last time and this is another step up in class.
Maries Rock holds chances on last seasons form but that progression stalled on its seasonal debut this term,it remains to be seen if thats as good as it is.
Back Rayna`s World 1pt at 13.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-4pts)There was money for it but it ran no sort of race.
28th January
355 Southwell-Ornate has been running well of late and returns to a track where its form figures read 2-1-1-3-2.
There is some other pace setters on show but I doubt any will be able to lay up with Ornate.This drop in class will help it to last home,if it can get away from them,which i expect it to do.
The clear danger is Tawny Port ,who is 2/2 here and will be suited by the way the race is run but it is 20 runs since it last got its head in front.
Back Ornate 20pts at 3.0 at Bet365-Won(+42.50pts*BOG)The ideal track for its front running style but brave at the end as well.
310 Wetherby-Maypole Class has progressive ratings after just 3 runs over fences and should be a shorter price than it is.
Its 3w-1p-6r going left handed and 3w-1p-4r in fields of 11 or less like today,the trip and ground are ideal and there looks to be some decent pace in the race,which it should sit off until the straight.
Town Parks is consistent and should run well and has to rate a danger while Champagne Mystery drops 2 grades and hails from a top yard but it has a very patchy profile and isnt easy to assess.
Back Maypole Class 3pts at 3.75 at Various Bookies-Meeting Abandoned
Monthly Total+173.25pts
Running Total+397.00pts
27th January
300 Lingfield-This is weak and although it has a tendency to get going too late,they may go decent gallop and that will help Bird For Life.
It has 7 wins to its name in this grade,so this drop in class will help and its last run over this course and distance,back in August,saw it beaten a nose off a 4Ib higher mark.So if the gallop is decent and the jockey can get it going early enough,it may be able to pick them off late on.
The clear danger is Aleatoric ,who has ran well in its two most recent starts.
Back Bird For Life 1pt at 8.0 at Paddys/Betfair-3rd(-6pts)Given every chance by its jockey but not good enough.
26th January
610 Wolverhampton-Opportunities are thin on the ground tomorrow but I cannot let Bell Heather go unbacked.
This is its favourite track and when appearing here in class 6 races,its never far away(5w-5p-15r) and its also 3w-1p-7r over this trip.Add in a fair draw then it should be able to sit in just behind the pace.
Heron`s Nest ran well last time over course and distance but is 0 from 11 and looks a tight enough price.
Turn Of Phrase is very lightly raced and seems to be improving,it looks the danger.
Back Bell Heather 4pts at 11.0 at Paddys/Betvictor-UP(-4pts)Weak in the betting and although in a good position,it was very one paced in the straight.
25th January
210 Chelmsford-Casaruan drops 2 grades into a class 6,back at a track where its achieved both its career wins and looks decent value at the prices.
Its only appeared in this class ,at this track twice before and won them both.
Word of Honour holds chances but has no course form while Luna Wish has gone well here before but has a poor draw.
Back Casaruan 6pts at 8.0 at Bet365-UP(-6pts)Backed into 5/2 but never in it.
410 Chelmsford-Its had a little break but if it turns up in good form then Indigo Times should be winning this.Its down in class and has won 2 of its 3 starts here,so looks a solid favourite.
Gold Standard is consistent but has no track form while Decora ran well last time on its first start for a new trainer but is up in grade and tries this track for the first time.
Back Indigo Times 18pts at 3.25 at Various Bookies-Won(+40.25pts)Won nicely.
250 Plumpton-This looks a 3 horse race to me with Cheque En Blanc appealing the most.
Its 2w-2p-7r at this track and 5w-3p-13r on races from 3m to 3m4f.After a good run last time,Im surprised it isnt heading the market.
Echo Watt is the main danger for me,it posted a good rating last time but moves up in trip and is off a career high mark,however it is 2w-1p-4r in this class.
I See You Well is inconsistent but on a going day,its got the figures to be involved.
Back Cheque En Blanc 9pts at 5.0 at Hills-2nd(-9pts)Looked like it was coming with a winning run but a horse it had gone past rallied and got up close home.(DT+25.25pts)
24th January
210 Lingfield-Always Fearless has only had one run at this track ,where it led until getting nutted close home.That was over 10 furlongs and after a fine run last time over this trip at Wolverhampton,this trip at this track could be ideal.
Add in the valuable 3Ibs being taken off by the jockey plus a drop in class and its difficult to see it not going close.
Thrill Seeker is still lightly raced but doesnt look well handicapped on what its done so far,Catch My Breath won over course and distance last time but this is a rise in class,so the main danger looks to be Rogue Tide who won last time at this track.
Back Always Fearless 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies -3rd(-12pts)Jockey gave it every chance but I dont think this horse wants to win,as it hung as soon as it came under pressure.Need to get back on the winning run!
23rd January
540 Newcastle-When it appears in class 4 handicaps then Tintoretto is a force to be reckoned with(2w-1p-4r) and with jockey Tom Marquand boasting the same record on the horse then its chance is clear.
Its latest rating suggests it can win off this handicap mark and if it takes to the track then its the one to beat.
Danielsflyer looks a bit short to me with a record of 0w-4p-16r at this trip while Seas Of Elzaam looked to have no excuses when upped in class last time.
Streak Lightning would be the one id be wary of,as its still lightly raced and drops in trip.
Back Tintoretto 11pts at 4.33 at Various Bookies-3rd(-11pts)Never looked like winning
205 Haydock-Although its been racing over fences recently,Chef DOeuvre`s guaranteed stamina appeals here.It showed its on its way back when a good second to progressive rival last time,on its second run back from a long absence.
Its finished 3rd and 1st on its 2 starts at this track,is 3w-1p-7r on heavy ground and boasts 2 wins over this trip,it looks a big price.
Farrants Way drops in class but needs to find more while Hijack represents top connections but has its stamina to prove.Clyne often runs well but hasnt won for nearly 3 years.
Back Chef DOeuvre 1pt at 8.0 at Bet365-UP(-6pts)Hurdling went to pieces down the back and struggled.
240 Haydock-On the 3 times from 4 starts that Sam Brown has posted a rating,its clear its on a fair mark especially as its unexposed as a chaser and now moves up in trip with the added bonus of Ben Godfrey taking off 5Ibs but you will need to get home on this ground and it could be vulnerable late on.
Royale Pagaille won well last time but was raised 16Ibs for that success,I dont think its out of it but thats a big task.
Sams Adventure looks a bigger threat as it likes the trip,course and ground.There appears to be no holes in its profile(Heavy Ground 5w-3p-10r)(3Miles+ 2w-0p-5r)(11r or less 5w-5p-14r),it looks the value.
Back Sams Adventure 7pts at 7.0 at Paddys/Betfair-Fell(-7pts)(DT-24pts)
Monthly Total+127.50pts
Running Total+351.25pts
22nd January
615 Chelmsford-Lord Riddiford posted a career best rating last time and with a 3w-2p-7r record around this track,it has to go well plus all 7 career wins have been when returning to the track within 60 days like today.I would have it as Favourite.
Tone The Barone is a big threat,as it boasts a 3/3 record over this course and distance and also goes well fresh,however it is a 14Ibs higher than its last win on the all weather and that has to be a worry.
Nigel Nott is another course specialist with 3 wins to its name and returning here could help but its last 2 runs have suggested its lost its edge for the time being.
Rovaniemi is 0 from 7 handicaps and takes another drop in trip but I still havent got it well handicapped on my figures.
Back Lord Riddiford 11pts at 4.33 at Bet365-Jockey fell off leaving the stalls!(-11pts)
21st January
150 Wincanton-Supreme Escape has only had 2 runs over fences and the rating it posted last time suggests its nicely handicapped at the moment.That is not also taking into account those runs were over much shorter than its best ratings over hurdles,so this step up in trip should be ideal.
Add in its 1/1 on heavy ground and it looks a rock solid favourite.
Favori De Sivola is also progressive but its best runs have been on good ground while Broadclyst has the ratings to be a danger but is 0 from 13.Findusatgorcombe stays very well but it is off a career high mark now.
Back Supreme Escape 18pts at 3.0 at Bet365-Pulled Up(-18pts)Backed into 6/4 but ran poorly.
350 Wincanton-From a handicapping perspective,theres no doubt Cyclop holds a fine chance here but this is just 8 days since its last run and in 4 runs over fences at this track,its achieved little(PU,PU,3rd,Fell),its current price means theres value elsewhere.
I like the progressive Nearly Perfect,who jumped for fun when winning here last time and that took its record to 2/2 at this track.
Its up in trip a little but wasnt stopping last time and could even improve for it,its definitely the wrong price.
Gleno has won its last two but up in trip and on very soft ground could find it out while Another Venture will have no problem with conditions but has it to do on my ratings.
Back Nearly Perfect 8pts at 6.0 at Bet365-4th(-8pts)Ran quite well but weakened late on(DT-26pts)
20th January
315 Chepstow-Memphis Bell continues to defy the handicapper but it was beaten 98 lengths on its only run here before,so its possible its vulnerable and a tight enough price to boot.
Take it on with Little Red Lion,whos progressive and reverts to hurdles here.Its 2w-2p-6r on heavy and its form figures over trips between 2m7f and 3m1f read 1st-1st-Fell-1st.
Le Tueur would hold chances on its win 2 starts back but it ran below par last time.
Back Little Red Lion 8pts at 6.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+40pts)Fine ride and a gutsy horse got it done.
630 Southwell-It might look stupid as they go over the line but Crazy Spin is such an incredibly short price here.
It is a 4 time course winner but its got little in hand on my figures and it faces competition for the lead from Susie Javea,so 13/8 looks really tight,Id be amazed if it doesnt drift.
False Id ended a long losing run at the weekend but its got a bit on here on my ratings,the obvious unknown is Szarratu ,who makes its debut after racing in Poland and is imterestingly owned by Dan Skelton but the betting should tell its tale.
On my figures,the value is Van Dijk,who should be favourite for me.It finished a close second last time from out the handicap and now appears off 4Ibs lower,so its handicapping chance is a good one and as long as it doesnt chuck in one of its slow starts then it must go close.
Back Van Dijk 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-12pts)Looked the winner after coming with a strong run up the straight(Touched 1.03 in running) but the winner rallied.(DT+28pts)
Monthly Total+188.50pts
Running Total+412.25pts
19th January
Could not find anything that appeared to be the wrong price.
18th January
410 Wolverhampton-From the outside stall,Spirit of Rowdown ran a cracker last time and continued its excellent form at this track(2w-1p-4r).
From a much better draw,I would expect it to go very close although it appears to have to be produced fairly late but the jockey knows the horse well,after riding it for both its wins.
Livia The Empress looks the main danger unless one of the handicap debutantes improves a fair bit.
Back Spirit of Rowdown 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-12pts)2 more strides and it would have won,just got shuffled back early on.
335 Ayr-The drop in class could be just what Made For You needs to get its head in front again.
Its up in trip and on very soft ground,so I wouldnt want it to be too keen during the race but its ratings give it a class edge on its rivals.The trainer has a 23% strike rate at this track and the jockeys claim will help,if it stays then it wins for me.
J`Ai Froid would have a fair chance on its 2019 form but its return 47 days ago was less than encouraging,so it has questions to answer.
Back Made For You 18pts at 2.75 at Various Bookies-UP(-18pts)Very weak in the market and it ran like it(DT-30pts)
17th January
335 Southwell-Zylan will go well here,as a multiple course winner and also a horse that comes to itself at the turn of the year(Jan-Feb 12r-4w-4p) but its a tight enough price .
Requinto Dawn is another does that ok here but its generally operated at a lower level of late and it remians to be seen if it can cope with this higher grade.
Katheefa is inconsistent but is well handicapped now but I like the look of Wasntexpectingthat.
Its not hit form this season but now moves to a new yard and is nicely handicapped 5Ibs below its last winning mark.Its ran twice here before and finished 2nd and 1st,that win produced a rating that suggests its got a lot in hand if it can bounce back.
Back Wasntexpectingthat 2pts at 6.0 at Bet365-UP(7pts)Weak in the market close to the off and ran poorly.
16th January
130 Market Rasen-Since joining Ben Pauling`s yard,Fawsley Spirit`s form has gone up a level and it was unlucky not to win last time and has a good chance of gaining compensation here.
It heads my ratings and several of these are not in great form,so it looks a very solid favourite and the yard do well here(Strikerate 25%)
Blue Hussar won this last year and rates the danger although Rockhamtom is unexposed and could improve but it doesnt look well handicapped on what its done so far.
Back Fawsley Spirit 16pts at 3.25 at Bet365-Won(+36pts)Tough performance from the front.
205 Market Rasen-This looks a two horse race to me and Oscars Leader rates the value.
Although it stays further,this is its best trip and its possible it could get a solo out in front.
Edwardstone is the clear danger and reverts back to hurdles after falling on its chase debut last time,its generally operated in higher grades so far over hurdles ,so its respected but the price is tight enough.
Back Oscars Leader 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365-3rd(-12pts)Edwardstone won easily but I doubt the selection has run its race(DT+24pts)
Monthly Total+197.50pts
Running Total+421.25pts
14th January
330 Fontwell-I cannot resist having a little on Ballybreen returning to form here.
Its done very little in 2 runs so far this season but thats fairly typical(Oct-Dec 0w-0p-8r) and it tends to come alive once the turn of the year has come(Jan-Feb 3w-0p-3r).
Add to that the refitting of blinkers(3w-1p-4r in them) and a drop in grade into a class 5(3w-1p-8r) then the price could look very big come the end of the race.
Love The Leader has an obvious chance from a handicapping perspective but im not that keen about taking a short price about a horse aged 13.
Back Ballybreen 3pts at 21.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+52pts*Rule 4) Favourite was a non runner but this was still hammered into favourite.Jumped out in front and never saw another rival.Amazing run!
Monthly Total+173.50pts
Running Total+397.25pts
13th January
240 Leicester-Decent race and some lightly raced types on show but if it handles the softer ground then When You`re Ready looks a fair price based on my ratings.
Ive got it having a similar chance to Fanfaron Dino but that one is priced around the 6/4 mark.
Fil Dariane won around here last time and has chances also.
Back When You`re Ready 8pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+40pts)Just a great ride,jumped well and was strong at the finish.
Monthly Total+121.50pts
Running Total+345.25pts