31st October

345 Nermarket-Always the chance of it being one race too many but on its rating it achieved on its latest start then GM Hopkins should go very close here.

Its performed well in both starts on the Rowley Mile and providing the ground doesnt get bottomless,its the one to beat.

Mitchum Swagger is lightly raced and progressive.It clearly can improve again and will like the conditions but is up from a class 3 handicap to a class 1 listed race.

Im not sure if So Beloved wants 8f over a mile so Dancetrack could be the biggest danger.

Back GM Hopkins 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365-4th(-12pts)Lack lustre run.

820 Wolves-If Virile can reproduce its effort over this course and distance,just four days ago then it really should win this.

It clearly appreciated the drop to 5 furlongs and the return to this track(Finished 2nd on both starts here) plus there was money for it.

Its 7Ibs clear on recent ratings based on my figures.

Quantum Dot produced a decent rating the last time we saw it but the fact its been off for 269 days has to be a concern and this is a rise in class.

Invincible Lad could be a danger as its 25Ibs lower than the last time we saw it on the all weather but it is 11yo now.

This is its first run for David Dennis and it will interesting which way it goes in the market as the current 4/1 is no bargain.

Back Virile 14pts at 3.5 at Bet365/Betvictor-Won(+35pts)Really well backed but small respite at the end of a rubbish month.(DT+23pts)

Monthly Total-47.23pts

Running Total+8298.20pts

29th October

230 Sedgefield-Back Vaihau 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-4th(-7pts)Just didnt stay the trip after looking a big threat coming into the straight.Horrible run we are on at the moment.
Monthly Total-70.23pts
Running Total+8275.20pts

28th October

110 Fakenham-Wily Fox ran well last time after a break and has chances on that,its 2w-1p-5r in October/November and the trainer is 2 from 7 with his handicap hurdlers here.

Gilzean has won after a break before and looks over priced for a yard that are 13/62 here with their runners.Its 3w-3p-10r on sharp tracks like this.

Back Gilzean 4pts at 13.0 at various bookies

back Wily Fox 7pts at 6.0 at Boylesports/Paddys-(-11pts)

240 Fakenham-Be On Time is clearly the one to beat here but is very short and provides some value elsewhere.

Midnight Chorister was well behind the fav last time but that was after a long break and it has a poor record fresh(80 days + 0w-0p-5r)

The trainer is 5 from 13 with his chasers here and this horse has won here.On its best rating from last season,its a player.

SportsReport is 0w-3p-12r on sharp tracks,0w-0p-3r after a long absence like today and 0w-2-10r in this grade,it looks well underpriced.

Money For Nothing makes its debut for a new yard but is another with questions to answer after a break(80 days+ 0w-0p-4r)

Artifice Sivola has no record fresh but represents a yard with a 35% strike rate with their chasers.

Back Midnight Chorister 4pts at 15.0 at paddys(Accept 11.0)-(-4pts)

340 Fakenham-This isnt a track where trainer Kim Bailey has a great record(1 from 14 with his handicap chasers) and Gold Man has come down at the 1st and 2nd in its two tries over fences.

The jumps come up thick and fast here and are a much tougher jumping test than it seems.

A clear round would seem more vital than anything else and this horse should be taken on.

Road To Freedom hails from a yard that do very well here while Vesuvhill is unexposed over fences.

Milgen Bay has never won left handed but has run some decent races going that way round,it isnt out of it for a yard that are 5 from 22 here with their chasers.

Lay Gold Man 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-UP(+19pts)(DT+4pts)

27th October

30 Bangor-Keychain is 0w-1p-15r in this class and although its put together several placed efforts recently,its hardly ever looked like winning.

Its best ratings have been over further and ive got it a much bigger price than it is.

Gee Hi has only had 2 starts over fences,both of which were over further.It disappointed last time after a good chase debut and cant be discounted back in trip,where its 2w-1p-3r.

The rock solid option is Chankillo,who came down at the last 2 starts back when going to win for us.(The 2nd in that race has hacked up since)

It then came out a few days later and produced a gutsy front running display with several superb jumps to win a decent race in which the 2nd has come out and won twice since.

It should be a 5/4 chance.

Back Chankillo 18pts at 3.0 at Bet365-2nd

Lay Keychain 20pts at 4.5(lay upto 5.5)-UP(+1pt)Chankillo bumped into one in Gee Hi while the lay was never in it after a mistake at the third.

410 Lingfield-Cabuchon is on a losing run of 34 and anytime this horse features at a layable price,it has to be taken on as it just doesnt want it.

It ran well last time but even this lowly grade is a rise in class for it and its unlikely this unreliable animal will put back to back performances together.

On just its 2nd start over this trip,Athenian Garden won well last time and escapes a penalty for that victory,its the one to beat.

Bennelong hails from an in form yard and has 7 wins to its name when reappearing after an absence of 14 days or less(6 today),it should run well.

Lay Cabuchon 20pts at 6.0-Won(-100pts)Sums up a rubbish month.(DT-99pts)

25th October

No selections

24th October

530 Doncaster-Salateen drops markedly in class after running poorly in a group race last time,it will appreciate this easier test but I do wonder if its lost its edge slightly.

It still has a fine chance but at the prices,I prefer Dinkum Diamond.

This horse was a revelation last time when stepped up to 7 furlongs for the first time.

That performance gives it every chance here and it hasnt raced in this lower a grade since 2012.

Its the value in a race where not many appear to have obvious chances.

Back Dinkum Diamond 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Late money for it but like so many recently,just hasnt run its race.The winner & second looked to have little chance.

23rd October

20 Doncaster-Classic Collection is lightly raced and could prove better than these but its short enough based on what its shown so far.

Pacify has progressive ratings and is a bigger price than ive got it,it should run well.

Wheat Sheaf is 5Ibs well in but is up in class and has stamina to prove.

Newera clearly likes a big galloping track as its wins at Haydock and Redcar.It should suit this course and is very consistent.

On my figures,its got a much better chance than the prices available.

Back Newera 6pts at 10.0 at Bet365/Betvictor(Accept 9.0)-UP(-6pts)Another consistent horse runs an absolute shocker.

720 Wolves-With a record of 1 from 23,Supersta wouldnt be the most obvious winner here but from a very bad draw,that looks even more unlikely.

Its got assorted headgear back on but is a pretty unreliable type.

Exit Europe is lightly raced and improving,its proven around here and its latest speed figure suggests theres more to come.

Mallymkun has posted some recent solid efforts around here and wont be far away while Chapeau Bleu ran well last time and will apprecate the extra distance.

Lay Supersta 20pts at 5.5(lay upto 6.0)-2nd(+19pts after commission)Looked the winner(touched 1.04 in running) but Mallymkun dug deep.The late withdrawal of the favourite left us a little exposed.(DT+13pts)

Monthly Total+44.23pts

Running Total+8389.20pts

22nd October

230 Southwell-Going Nowhere Fast has been a model of consistency since going over fences and it meets rivals that find winning very difficult.

The selection was beaten in a higher grade last time but will appreciate the drop in class where its finished 4th-2nd-1st-1st over fences.

All its wins have been going left handed and it ran a good second here on its only start at the track.

Red Rosso is 1 from 21 but has ran some good races here although its ratings suggest its lost what edge it had.

Larkhall is 0/20 but is consistent and is next best on figures but I wouldnt mind jumping the last alongside it,given its record.

Cross To Boston makes only its 2nd start for Sue Smith but has no record fresh and is 1 from 28 in its career,its best ratings are also over further.

Back Going Nowhere Fast 20pts at 3.0 at various bookies.-UP(-20pts)Jumped like it was drunk & never had a chance.Massive disappointment!

655 Chelmsford-Natural Nine makes its handicap debut and returns from a break but this horse clearly goes well fresh and is the one to beat.

However its shorter in the market than ive got it but not as short as Best Example,who looks far too short on what its shown so far.

At a price,I think Bold Prediction could run well.

On what its done in its 3 runs this season,it cant win but it has been plying its trade in much better races than this and will appreciate the drop in class.

It won on its last run in a class 4 and gets George Baker onboard for the first time(That rating makes it a big runner here)

The jockey has a 28% strike rate when riding for Ed Walker

Back Bold Prediction 4pts at 17.0 at various bookies-UP(-4pts_Nibbles for it but basically got the race totally wrong,not for the first time recently(DT-24pts)

21st October

335 Fontwell-Mercers Court has ran some decent races at this track but its overall form and ratings dont look good enough to win this.

This is a rise in class for it and it meets some serious rivals.

Promanco is progressive and hails from an in form yard.It will appreciate this drop in class.

Drum Valley is another that spent last season plying its trade in much better company,if its ready to go after a break then its got the class to take this.

Taradrewe is up in class but in fine form,its 2w-1p-3r at this track and must go well while Lightentertainment is unbeaten here(3 from 3) and although this is its seasonal debut,it is down in class into a grade where its 3w-1p-4r.

Jockey Tom Cannon is 5 from 11 on the horse.

Lay Mercers Court 15pts to win at 6.0 Lay 10pts to place-UP(+23.75pts)

145 Worcester-Sandynow will surely never get a better chance to open its account over fences than this.

Its been pretty consistent although it is a tricky ride but its last two ratings suggest its time is near,it will plenty of assistance in the saddle with Sean Bowen onboard.

Cobajayisland looks a better horse with some cut and is 0w-0p-3r on galloping tracks like this but it did run well first time out last season.

Playing The Field is the obvious danger as it won its last two races when we last saw it but that was over 500 days ago.

The market will tell its tale although id be surprised if it wasnt pretty fit after such an absence.

Having said that,its pretty short after such a long time off.

Gold Man is difficult to assess after just the one run and that was an unseat over fences while Railway Storm has been consistent in a lower grade but im not sure a drop in trip is what it wants.

Back Sandynow 8pts at 6.0 at Corals/Betvictor-UP(-8pts)Held several positions and didnt jump great.Fell away tamely in the straight although I couldnt have the winner at any price but there we go.(DT+15.75pts)

Monthly Total+55.23pts

Running Total+8400.20pts

20th October

345 Exeter-Danandy won last time but would still need to step up on that if the others in this race,bring their best form to the races.

This horse isnt the most consistent and last times winning pilot(Richard Johnson) gets off it to ride Dursey Sound.

Im also not convinced it wants 3 miles or a right handed track.

Its 0w-1p-5r over this trip and has the same record going right handed track.

Adrenalin Flight takes a drop in class from its last run over fences.That rating last time out gives it a solid chance and its finished 2nd-1st-2nd-3rd in its 4 runs at this track.

I wouldnt put anyone off having a few quid on it but its ridden by my `Nemesis` jockey in Andrew Thornton and I just cant tip it with him onboard.

Dursey Sound isnt the most obvious horse to follow up its latest win but the trainers horses are in good form & will like trip and ground.

Border Breaker is lightly raced over fences and is very competitive on my figures even on its defeat last time.

Caulfields Venture hails from a yard that have won with 3 of their last 8 runners.

Its 2/2 at this course,gets the visor first time and returns from a break,it could run well with Aidan Coleman 3w-1p-6r on the horse

Lay Danandy 15pts at 6.0 to win  Lay 10pts to place-(Wasnt Matched)

18th & 19th October

No Selections

17/10

145 Stratford-Poetic Verse is just top rated and is a fair favourite but the value in the race is Quiet Candid.

This horse won on its handicap debut last March,clocking a very good speed figure in the process before just fading up Cheltenham`s hill in a better race than this.

The yard won this race last year and it is 2w-0p-4r in fields of 9 or less.

Bantam makes its handicap debut and could improve.

Back Quiet Candid 5pts each way at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)No idea what happened to this.Just completely dropped out 3 out.Another poor run.

230 Ascot-It remains to be seen if Gleneagles turns up but I hope it does as it wont win on this ground.

Solow is the obvious other one in the race for last years winning stable but I feel they are both shorter than they should be.

Territories is respected as it looks to be improving but I like Kodi Bear.

This horse is a course and distance winner and will love the ground.My ratings have it only 2Ibs behind Solow`s best and the difference in the prices are just too big.

Back Kodi Bear 5pts each way at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Pulled too hard early but hit the front 2 out.Weakened badly however.Another Bad day!

Back Quiet Candid and Kodi Bear 3pts each way double-Lost(-6pts)(DT-26pts)

16th October

215 Fakenham-Purely on my ratings,Full Ov Beans cant win this.Its a much better chaser than over todays discipline of hurdles and it got lumped up a lot for finally breaking its duck over the smaller obstacles last season.

However,its a prolific winner at this track over fences(6w-1p-11r) loves this time of year(October 3w-0p-7r) and im fascinated to see how it does in what is its first start over hurdles at its favourite track.

Its not like its in a race full of consistent types who are prolific winners.The rest of the field have 2 wins between them & if the selection loves this track as much as the chase one then its form could rise significantly.

If it does it will outclass these.

Nebula Storm is the most likely danger but is 11Ibs above its highest winning mark and is clearly beatable.

Back FullovBeans 6pts at 7.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 6.0)-Pulled Up(-6pts)

300 Wincanton-After just 3 starts over fences.Tangolan has got plenty of upside and its rating & speed figure from its latest effort,stand out here.

Im slightly worried by the trainer being 0 from 16 at the track but other than that,everything else is in its favour.

its 3w-2p-8r in fields of 9 or less,2 from 3 over this trip and 3w-2p-8r going right handed.

It can miss the odd fence but if its jumping holds up then its the one to beat.

Forever My Friend has been in good form but time and again,its failed to produce once its reached this handicap mark plus it tends to lose its form at this time of year(Oct-Jan 0w-1p-9r).

Polisky likes it here(2w-1p-4r) but is 2 from 25 in its career and those being in 3 and 4 runner races.

Its course form means its respected but its beatable.

Houston Dinamo is 0w-2p-11r in this grade and hasnt won over fences since 2012.

Back Tangolan 15pts at 3.5 at Hills(Accept 3,0)-UP(-15pts)Both selections beaten very,very early on.Absolute rubbish day.(DT-21pts)

Monthly Total+65.48pts

Running Total+8410.45pts

15th October

330 Uttoxeter-Its got a few negatives but Interpleader is much too big here.

It ran a decent race on its return from a few months off,that rating gives it a shout but the figure it achieved last March at Bangor puts it clear in this field.

Obviously theres a chance it wont run to that level but at the prices,im happy to find out.

Etania drops in class,is 1 from 2 here and the jockey is 3 from 9 for the Ian Williams yard,it should run well.

Alta Rock came back to form last time but is a pretty unreliable horse while Urban Gale also bounced back last time but would want it softer.

Lost in Newyork moves up in trip after a good run last time.It has a  shout on that rating but its 1 from 34 in its career.

Back Interpleader 5pts at 12.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 9.0)-UP(-5pts)Money for it but ran poorly

715 Chelmsford-Marmalad stands out on my figures and should be around the 5/4 mark here.

Although its ability to act on the surface here is unknown,thats the same story for nearly every horse in the field.

The trainer is 5/16 here so I would expect he would know which horses will handle it,if it does then it should go very close.

Its 1 from 2 in this grade and 2w-1p-5r between August & November against 0w-1p-10r at other times of the year.

Brasted looks the main danger as its lightly raced and down in class but needs to improve to beat the selection.

Steady Major comes out best on official ratings but its very inconsistent and although it is 1 from 1 in this grade,it will need to improve on recent runs to take this

Back Marmalad 18pts at 3.0 at various bookies-2nd(-18pts)What a few days it has been:-( Beaten at 1.01 in running!!!!!(DT-23pts)

14th October

250 Worcester-The Bay Bandit has race fitness on its side and is pretty consistent but its clearly beatable and its win 2 starts back hasnt worked out very well.

Midnight Chorister hasnt got bad ratings but looks like it needs rain while Take The Crown is consistent but looks better over further and after a run.

Be On Time makes its Uk debut here and this is its first run for in form trainer Jamie Snowden.

Its only raced on soft ground so far but thats probably due to racing in France rather than a preference.

On my figures,its looks like its got in very lightly here and I expect the money to come.

Back Be On Time 14pts at 4.0-Won(+42pts)Really well backed and just hung on

Monthly Total+109.48pts

Running Total+8454.45pts

13th October

210 Huntingdon-Impulsive American is very unexposed and hails from a top yard.It could prove too good but has just struggled to settle in both its hurdles starts so far and hasnt been able to finish its races off.Its also only 3yo,racing against older horses and while getting a big weight allowance,it looks a little too short for me.

Spa`s Dancer hasnt had many goes over hurdles and makes its handicap debut here.It is a good flat horse and while it needs to improve,it may well do so.

The value looks to be Breaking Bits,who ran a fine race on its seasonal debut last time.Its on its last winning mark and the jockey is 7/32 for this yard.

Back Breaking Bits 6pts at 9.0 at Bet365/10bet(Accept 7.0)-2nd(-6pts)Backed into 4/1 and then appeared to have won in a photo(Trading at 1.15) but somehow lost.Unbelieveable!

240 Huntingdon-Ashcott Boy won yesterday and will probably do so again,if in the same form.

However,it had a hard race and as of yet,it looks a 10Ib worse horse over this extra distance.

Keychain has been running okay but this is a rise in class into a grade it struggles in(Class 4 0w-1p-14r) and is also 0w-0p-2r at this track.

Theres so much dead wood in here,that its difficult to see the lightly raced Blackwood Rover out of the frame.

Its latest 2 ratings give it a decent shout and some of its recent form has been working out pretty well.

Paul Moloney is 3 from 13 when riding for this stable.

Back Blackwood Rover 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365/Betvictor(Accept 6.0)-2nd(-7pts)Produced perfectly at the last and touched 1.11 in running but wandered left & got nutted 10 strides from the line.Should have won.

Back Breaking Bits & Blackwood Rover 2.5pts each way double-Won place part(+6.92pts)(DT-6.08pts)

550 Leicester-Sur Empire looks too short to me here.

It was described as a disappointing horse by its trainer when it finally got its head in front 4 starts back.Its now 7Ibs higher and races on a soft surface.

I cant see it winning off this mark and certainly not on this ground,which probably explains why regular pilots Fanning and Norton dont ride.

Ttainted Love has a solid chance and is gradually finding its way under its good trainer.

Interconnection will appreciate the drop in class and although very inconsistent East Coast Lady races in the lowest class it ever has and will love the ground.

Favourite Girl returns from an absence but will like the conditions and the yard have won this race twice in the last 3 years.

Lay Sur Empire 20pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)Managed to get a few quid matched early on but not enough for it count as it ended up the price it should have been.

12th October

440 Sedgefield-We was on Sendiym last time,when it finished just behind a Donald McCain improver and it looks much the same story here.

That horse is Court of Law and although it just held on from a subsequent winner last time,that was in a lower grade and that rating will need to be bettered here to take this.

Sendiym will want the rain to stay away but it looks rock solid and has to be thereabouts.

It loves it around here(Sedgefield 4w-3p-9r),is 3 from 9 over this trip and all 6 career wins have been when carrying 10st13 or less(Today10st11)

Its favourite on my ratings.

Carters Rest was in decent form the last time we saw it and has won after a break before but it is a 12yo now and it moves up to a trip,its never done any good and its sire is just 2% over it.

The rest of the field look out of it although Marlee Mourinho does have one rating from last year that gives it a shout.That was on much softer ground however.

Back Sendiym 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-4th(-12pts)Horse didnt want to start and didnt want to know throughout.

420 Salisbury-Emell has a modest strike rate but its spent most of its career(in my opinion) running over a trip too far.

It seems clear on my figures that a mile isnt what it wants(0w-2p-15r) but over 7f or less(2w-6p-15r),its record isnt bad at all.

Add into that,it has only raced in this grade twice and both of those over a mile,I would expect a big run from a horse who has a fine chance on its 3rd place finish in a group three,2 starts back.

Its also 1 from 1 here and that is never a bad thing.

Highland Colori is a big danger but is on a long losing run,going back 2 years.

However,it normally races in a higher grade than this and is a force when dropped to a class 3(4w-1p-7r)

Mobsta is unexposed but will need to improve 20Ibs for the step up in trip.

Wet Sail is the other that has a chance but whether it wants the ground this soft is another thing.

Back Enell 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Hasnt run its race.Very laboured throughout and extremely disappointing.Poor day!(DT-24pts)

11th October

No Selections

11th October

535 Newmarket-Mutakayyef heads my ratings and should run well but form figures of 2-2-2-1-2-2-3-2-2 have to sound a note of caution.

I dont particularly fancy Hors De Combat although the yard are flying,so that leaves some value further down particularly as this race has a habit of throwing up a shock(20/1,20.1,25/1 and 50/1 in the last 7 years)

Decorated Knight should run well,as its improving on my figures while Master of the World produced a career best last time in handicap company.

The value for me is Wannabe Yours,who finally came back to something like last seasons form,when a good second last time.

That trip may have been a little far,so this furlong shorter distance should suit.

Its got 8Ibs to find on offical ratings but that last performance and last seasons best,put it right there on my figures.

Back Wannabe Yours 4pts at 13.0 at various bookies-5th(-4pts)No idea what the jockey was doing.Totally isolated throughout.Somehow touched 2.0 in running.

Monthly Total+93.56pts

Running Total+8442.53pts

9th October

325 York-Brandon Castle  stays and will like the ground but steps up 2 grades for this and will need to better anything its done before by around 7Ibs to take this.

Its trainer is just 1/24 in 3yo handicaps at this track and ive got it a much bigger price.

Pin Up drops down from listed class for this,the yard are in decent form and its difficult to see it not being involved.

Yorkidding just heads my ratings on its latest run.This is a slight drop in trip but its the only course winner in the field and thats counts for a fair bit here.

Agent Gibbs won easily earlier in the week,its up in trip but has stamina in its pedigree.It should be involved.

I dont think Swaheen or Sir Chauvelin are out of it either while Who Dares Wins is in blinding form but does have a question mark on the ground

Lay Brandon Castle 15pts to win at 6.0 Lay 10pts to place-Cancelled due to non runner

435 Newton Abbot-This is pretty wide open with several holding some sort of chance but all with negatives.

Jayandbee represents top connections and was backed down to favourite on its seasonal debut last time but ran a flat race.

It cant win on what it did there and it will be interesting if the money comes again.

Ethelred has raced only once over fences when coming down late on

The rating it achieved would need to be significantly improved upon but Its back from a break now and the trainer is 4/16 with his handicap chasers here.

Sky Watch wants the ground faster while Johns Luck wants it much softer.

Distracted made a decent stable debut last time and I would rate it a danger but the one I like Railway Storm.

It hasnt won yet but it hasnt been with this yard long and is the one to beat on its rating it posted last time out over course and distance.

Back Railway Storm 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-2nd(-10pts)Picked the wrong one.Distracted won easily.

8th October

No Selections

7th October

255 Towcester-Conas Taoi looks progressive and tops the ratings here.Its only had just 4 starts over fences and the jockey is 2 from 6 for this yard.

Cosway Spirit returns from an absence and it has an ordinary record after a break but its a different horse at this specialist track(3w-1p-6r) and is a force in this grade(Class 5 3w-2p-9r)

Montys Revenge has 2 course wins to its name and is well handicapped at present,a good run wouldnt be a surprise.

A strike rate of 1 from 28 is hardly a recommendation for Combustible Kate,add in a 0w-1p-7r after a long break like today then it looks unlikely to run to its best.

On what its done so far,its best wouldnt win this anyway.

Lay Combustible Kate 20pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)

325 Towcester-Cool Macavity has plenty to recommend it here except for its price.

It looks sure to run well as it holds a class edge over most of its rivals and hails from a yard that are 3 from 9 with their handicap hurdlers here.

However,I can see Serenity Now running well and at a bigger price,it has to be the call.

Its not fully exposed as a hurdler and ran really well(In this class) last week but didnt look to quite get home over further.

The drop in trip and stiff finish could prove ideal,it should come home well if in contention late on.

Argot is unexposed and makes its handicap debut here but the trainer puts up a young claimer on board,possibly suggesting he doesnt think its well handicapped.

It needs to find at least 7Ibs on my ratings to figure.

Back Serenity Now 10pts at 5.0 at Paddys(Accept 4.5)-Won(+28pts *Fav Non runner)Shame about the non runner as I doubt this would have been beaten.Hosed up!

425 Ludlow-Once again ,its about the prices here.

Hepijou looks far too short to me.Although lightly raced and hailing from a yard in form.Its got a bit to find on ratings and this stable arent great here(1/18 in handicap chasers)

Cut The Corner is improving and should run well while its difficult to see Jayo Time not being involved.

Its recent form stacks up well and this is its time of year(Sept-Nov 3w-2p-6).It needs to be supported.

Allez Vic doesnt have a great record fresh but the fact that this yard have won this race the last 2 years suggests it will be ready.

This is a drop in class and its 2w-2p-5r over this trip.

Its should be shorter in the betting.

Back Allez Vic 7pts at 7.5(advised earlier)-UP(DT-7pts)

Back Jayo Time 2pts at 5.0 at various bookies-Won(+10pts *BOG)(DT+31pts)Tried to be a bit clever here when Jayo Time should have always been the call.At least we didnt lose on the race.

755 Kempton-This is quite simple,anything close to Sky Cape`s latest run will see it win this.

Its not raced here before but the trainer is 9 from 21 with his 3yo`s here,so you would assume he doesnt see any problem.

Its still improving after just 4 runs and has a decent draw.

Its an even money chance and the price is value.

Back Sky Cape 18pts at 3.25(Advised earlier)-Won(+34.56pts *1 non runner)Closer than I thought but it won(DT+65.56pts)

Monthly Total+107.56pts

Running Total+8456.53pts

6th October

No Selections

5th October

415 Pontefract-Red Paladin ran a fine race just 7 days ago and that rating gives it a better chance than the odds suggest here.

It likes a quick return to the track(7 days or less 1w-1p-2r) and is just 1Ib above its last winning mark.

Stall 1 is a good draw.

Ivors Involvement needs some rain and if it gets it then its a danger.SDS is 11 from 45 when riding for this yard.

Tanawar has won its last two but will need to find at least 6Ibs improvement to take this but thats not impossible.

Trinity Star wouldnt win this on whats its been doing lately but does drop in grade and is a course and distance winner.

Back Red Paladin 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Didnt get any run at any stage in the straight

4th October

540 Uttoxeter-Despite an ordinary win record,Ullswater showed it has the winning of this race,last time out,on just its 2nd start for Gordon Elliott.

This wouldnt be the first horse this trainer has revitalised and he has an impressive 5 from 11 record here.

Tom Scudamore takes the ride and hes 4 from 11 for the yard.

Gin and Tonic looks the main danger after a good win last time while Sweet World,who has narrowly failed to prevail when tipped,the last twice,isnt out of it.

Back Ullswater 14pts at 4.0-Won(+42pts)

Monthly Total+49pts

Running Total+8397.97pts

3rd October

440 Newmarket-Perhaps Leah Freya is an Epsom specialist or maybe its just improving fast or perhaps both?

My ratings suggest its definitely on the upgrade and although this is a completely different track,I cant ignore it on the numbers.

I doubt if it was a sexier jockey/trainer combination ,we would be getting 11/4.

Moonlight Sonata and Endless Time are both much shorter than I have them but they both come from big Newmarket yards.

Purely on my figures,Ive got Twitch as the main danger.

Back Leah Freya 13pts at 3.75 at Various bookies-UP(-13pts)Never ever going

700 Wolves-Edge Of Heaven moves back down into a class 4 after 2 runs in a higher grade.It holds good chances on its latest run on turf and is the only horse proven on the surface here.

Its 3w-3p-8r in fields of 9 or less and the jockey is 3 from 13 for the yard.

Privileged is the main danger for a yard that have an impressive 30% strike rate but its the right price.

Back Of Heaven 9pts at 5.5 at Various bookies-UP(-9pts)Another shocking run

420 Ascot-At 6 Furlongs,Lucky Kristale would have a fine chance but over todays trip of 7,its chance diminishes a lot.

Particularly at this track,you will need to get home.All its best runs have been on easy tracks(York/Windsor) and the stiff finish here has found it out on each of the 3 occasions its run here(Beaten 14l,9l,6 1/2l)

Interestingly 3yo`s have won this race the last 10 years and the lay is 4yo!

Pelerin drops in class and ran a stormer last time,it must go close on that evidence while Farsakh hacked up on its debut last time,it could be anything.

Floriss is a typical James Fanshawe improver,whos ratings took a surge forward with its easy victory last time.

Another jolt in improvement would see it go very close.

Lay Lucky Kristake 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts aftercommission)(DT-3pts)

Monthly Total+7pts

Running Total+8355.97pts

2nd October

200 Hexham-Kitchapoly is the one to beat here but its price reflects that.Its been running well and both its career wins have been in this grade.

However,its all about the price for me and although it will need to be at its best,I think Ballycool is a touch of value.

Both of its last 2 wins have come after at least 100 days off and returns here after 146 days absence.

The yard have a 26% strike rate here with their chasers and when you consider this horse had the likes of Derek Fox riding it,surely Tom Scudamore can get a tune out of it.

Heist won last time but was a very fortunate winner,its still lightly raced though and could improve.

Gin Cobbler goes well here but is up against in the weights.

Back Ballycool 8pts at 6.0 at bet365(Accept 5.5)-3rd(-8pts)They went a crazy gallop here and it just couldnt get into it.Wasnt beaten far in the end.

1st October

240 Warwick-This is pretty competitve and Cusheen Bridge looks too short to me.

Its been in decent form at a lower level but everything that has run since from its latest victory,have been well beaten.

The rating it posted leaves it with 7Ibs to find and the trainer has never had a winner here.

Desert Recluse must run well after a good run last time.Its trainer is 2 from 5 here with his handicap hurdlers.

Watt Broderick can be pretty in and out but conditions are fine and a repeat of its latest run will see it thereabouts.

Hawdyerwheesht wont be far away while Dormouse normally needs the run after a break but has 3 course wins to its name and isnt badly handicapped.

Lay Cusheen Bridge 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-UP(Wasnt Matched)

310 Warwick-After 2 years off,its taken Badgers Retreat a few runs to get going but last time out there were clear signs its time was near.

That rating it produced wins this race but was still 8Ibs below its best from 2013,it wouldnt surprise me,if it improved again.

The jockey is 4 from 15 when riding for the yard and although its not a fantastic price,there is really no obvious danger.

Jackthejourneyman opened its account last time but its always struggled in this grade(Class 4 0w-0p-9r) and it has to prove its stamina.

Handsome Buddy wants much further,Try Catch Me only wins at Fontwell while Kapricorne wants the ground softer.

Koup De Kanon has only had 2 runs over fences but both were poor,it could still improve though.

Back Badgers Retreat 20pts at 3.0 at Paddys(Accept 2.75)-Won(+40pts)Nearly uprooted one fence and incredibly went out to 8.0 in running but ground it out well.

420 Warwick-Off The Ground has joined the Charlie Longsdon yard and I would expect him to have this horse revved up and ready to roll here.

The trainer has had 4 winners and 4 places from his last 9 runners and if this horse turns up at its best,it will win.

American Legend has been in good form but this is a step up from the races its been running in.

Back Off The Ground 12pts at 4.5-Fell(-12pts)In there battling(Traded at 1.54 in running) when it came down at the 2nd last.

325 Bangor-Although up in class,there are so many doubts about the opposition that the in form Triple Eight could run well.

Its latest run gives it sound chances here and the trainer is 3 from 11 with his hurdlers here.

Polstar is very in and out but would have chances on its latest victory but whether it reproduces it is another matter.

Falcarragh has seen some early money but runs over hurdles for the first time since 2013.

It remains to be seen how it copes with the change.

Back Triple Eight 10pts at 5.0 at Bet365/Betvictor-2nd(-10pts)Ran really well but just couldnt reel in the winner.(DT+18pts)

Running Total+8366.97pts