105 Musselburgh-I just feel that Bocciani is too big a price not to have a bit on.Ive got it right there with the principals-Blenheim Brook,NiceoneFrankie and Swift Arrow but its at a much bigger price.So from a complete value viewpoint it gets the vote.
Back Bocciani 6pts at 11.0-Won(+60pts)Great start to the year!
220 Catterick-Brave Spartacus should win this providing it can stay on its feet.Its clear top rated and still improving while also a course and distance winner.
Back Brave Spartacus 20pts at 3.0-Won(Not Matched)Absolutely hosed up but the price didnt quite get matched.
405 Wolverhampton-This is a good race with several in form horses.Angelic Upstart is a consistent sort that appears to be overpriced according to my ratings.
Back Angelic Upstart 6pts at 8.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-6pts)Ran a solid race but just gave way late on
215 Musselburgh-Seveal with a chance here including Exotic Man,Everaard,E Street Boy,Angel Sun and Definite Appeal.Local Present has been in decent form but has a bit to find on ratings and its ratings on soft ground should mean its very vulnerable.If not matched I would leave this in running for a bit as Aiden Colemans quiet riding style often means it looks like its going better than it actually is.
Lay Local Present 30pts 6.0-UP(+30pts)Was matched after 2 fences.(DT+84pts)
Days total minus commission+79.80pts
Running Total+4711.71pts
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
31st December
240 Uttoxeter-Only 4 runners but i dont give Sawpit Supreme(0/6 after a break) or Molko Jack(0/5 in December,0wins-1place-13runs in fields of 0-9) much chance.Chestnut Ben probably has the slightly more convincing profile but Anay Turge has the better ratings and as its the bigger price,its the call
Back Anay Turge 15pts at 3.35-Won(+35.25pts)Nice end to the year.
330 Lingfield-Storm Runner is running well and will run its race but its never won above class 6 level and looks very short to me here.The fact that Yankee Storm is quite prominent in the betting is a worry as they are a gambling stable but it has no record fresh(0/8) and the trip is a doubt.Chrissycross is another whos running fairly well but again struggles in this class(0w-0p-11runs).This all brings me Ellie in the Pink,who run well last time over a trip too far,is 2w-0p-6r in fields of 9 or less and is a touch of value.
Back Ellie in the Pink 9pts at 6.6-NON RUNNER
*Thanks for following this year*
Days total minus commission+33.48pts
Monthly Total+494.10pts
Running Total+4631.91pts
Month Analysis(42 win bets/14 winners) Strike rate 33% (7 Lay bets/6 winners) Strike Rate 85%
Years Profit/Loss +2028.92pts
Back Anay Turge 15pts at 3.35-Won(+35.25pts)Nice end to the year.
330 Lingfield-Storm Runner is running well and will run its race but its never won above class 6 level and looks very short to me here.The fact that Yankee Storm is quite prominent in the betting is a worry as they are a gambling stable but it has no record fresh(0/8) and the trip is a doubt.Chrissycross is another whos running fairly well but again struggles in this class(0w-0p-11runs).This all brings me Ellie in the Pink,who run well last time over a trip too far,is 2w-0p-6r in fields of 9 or less and is a touch of value.
Back Ellie in the Pink 9pts at 6.6-NON RUNNER
*Thanks for following this year*
Days total minus commission+33.48pts
Monthly Total+494.10pts
Running Total+4631.91pts
Month Analysis(42 win bets/14 winners) Strike rate 33% (7 Lay bets/6 winners) Strike Rate 85%
Years Profit/Loss +2028.92pts
30th December
210 Lingfield-This is a good little race where the improving 3yo Hometown Glory looks a bit overpriced.Its just top rated and is very much unexposed over this trip while boasting 2wins-1place-3runs on an All Weather surface.The biggest danger for me is George Guru whos unbeaten in fields of 9 or less(2/2) and is 2w-1p-4runs at this track.
Back Hometown Glory 8pts at 6.0-4th(-8pts)Beat the book again but the well supported winner was allowed to do its own thing in front and didnt get pegged back.
255 Taunton-Rigadin De Beauchene ran well when a selection on the blog last time and it should run well again.From a pure ratings perspective,it has to be the selection at the prices but a win record of 1/18 means i wouldnt put anyone off laying this back in running as it tends to jump and travel well.If Fine Parchment can stay on its feet,it will run well but the biggest danger is Deireadh Re,whos still fairly unexposed.Honest John has won its last 2 races but has 10Ibs to find on ratings.
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365,Ladbrokes & William Hill-Non runner
Lay Honest John 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Fine Parchment didnt deserve to get nutted right on the line after a fine performance/(DT+22pts)
Days total minus commission+20.9pts
Monthly Total+481.52pts
Running Total+4598.43pts
Back Hometown Glory 8pts at 6.0-4th(-8pts)Beat the book again but the well supported winner was allowed to do its own thing in front and didnt get pegged back.
255 Taunton-Rigadin De Beauchene ran well when a selection on the blog last time and it should run well again.From a pure ratings perspective,it has to be the selection at the prices but a win record of 1/18 means i wouldnt put anyone off laying this back in running as it tends to jump and travel well.If Fine Parchment can stay on its feet,it will run well but the biggest danger is Deireadh Re,whos still fairly unexposed.Honest John has won its last 2 races but has 10Ibs to find on ratings.
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365,Ladbrokes & William Hill-Non runner
Lay Honest John 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Fine Parchment didnt deserve to get nutted right on the line after a fine performance/(DT+22pts)
Days total minus commission+20.9pts
Monthly Total+481.52pts
Running Total+4598.43pts
29th December
325 Doncaster-Blackwater King is the obvious starting point and it must go well but at a much bigger price,I like Renoyr,who is top rated on its final run in Ireland but has now joined Malcolm Jeffersons yard who has had 4 winners from his last 10 runners.No surprise to see this shorten and run a big race.
Back Renoyr 10pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5) at Bet365-Won(+80pts)Actually drifted before the money came on track.Doubt you will see a more confidently ridden winner.The only thing is why didnt i do an exacta when I knew who the 2 main principles were?
225 Doncaster-I was going to lay Sixty Something but im not certain its current progress will tail off yet,so i will split stakes on Firebird Flyer and Who Owns Me who are both improving.Barafundle is the fav but its profile suggests it runs its best races fresh,so it may not come on much for its comeback run.
Back Firebird Flyer 8.5pts at 6.4 and Who Owns Me 9pts at 6.0
2pt exacta on both horses -3rd/4th(-19.5pts)Disappointing result as Sixty Something was never competitive and the 2 selections were right there 3 out.(DT+60.5pts)
3.0 Doncaster-Only got slightly matched on Lie Forrit,so im hoping for a drift but this horse loves big fields(10-15runners 5wins-2places-15runs),it only wins between November and February and on soft ground(5wins-1place-8runs).Doubts about lots of these but Triptico is the big danger.
Back Lie Forrit 6pts at 9.0
2pt exacta Lie Forrit and Triptico-UP(-8pts)Probably the end of the exactas.Lie Forrit was never going(DT-52.5pts)
210 Newbury-Pete the feat is improving fast since joining Charlie Longsdon and is already clear top rated without any further progression.Throw in a excellent record on heavy ground(3w-2p-7r) and its a very solid fav.
Back Pete the Feat 14pts at 3.65-Won(1 non runner +33pts)Absolutely tanked along and never looked like losing.(DT+85.5pts)
150 Doncaster-Late selection as im surprised Buxom has drifted but it has and is now at a very big price.
Back Buxom 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)Dont know the reason for the drift but this ran a shocker!(DT+65.5pts)
Days total minus commission+65.28pts
Monthly Total+460.62pts
Running Total+4577.53pts
Back Renoyr 10pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5) at Bet365-Won(+80pts)Actually drifted before the money came on track.Doubt you will see a more confidently ridden winner.The only thing is why didnt i do an exacta when I knew who the 2 main principles were?
225 Doncaster-I was going to lay Sixty Something but im not certain its current progress will tail off yet,so i will split stakes on Firebird Flyer and Who Owns Me who are both improving.Barafundle is the fav but its profile suggests it runs its best races fresh,so it may not come on much for its comeback run.
Back Firebird Flyer 8.5pts at 6.4 and Who Owns Me 9pts at 6.0
2pt exacta on both horses -3rd/4th(-19.5pts)Disappointing result as Sixty Something was never competitive and the 2 selections were right there 3 out.(DT+60.5pts)
3.0 Doncaster-Only got slightly matched on Lie Forrit,so im hoping for a drift but this horse loves big fields(10-15runners 5wins-2places-15runs),it only wins between November and February and on soft ground(5wins-1place-8runs).Doubts about lots of these but Triptico is the big danger.
Back Lie Forrit 6pts at 9.0
2pt exacta Lie Forrit and Triptico-UP(-8pts)Probably the end of the exactas.Lie Forrit was never going(DT-52.5pts)
210 Newbury-Pete the feat is improving fast since joining Charlie Longsdon and is already clear top rated without any further progression.Throw in a excellent record on heavy ground(3w-2p-7r) and its a very solid fav.
Back Pete the Feat 14pts at 3.65-Won(1 non runner +33pts)Absolutely tanked along and never looked like losing.(DT+85.5pts)
150 Doncaster-Late selection as im surprised Buxom has drifted but it has and is now at a very big price.
Back Buxom 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)Dont know the reason for the drift but this ran a shocker!(DT+65.5pts)
Days total minus commission+65.28pts
Monthly Total+460.62pts
Running Total+4577.53pts
28th December
120 Catterick-Form figures this season of 54PU and Avenging Ace is fav.This isnt a strong race though so im very reluctant to lay it.Amroth Bay will run well but Noble Witness is top rated and has ran well once on soft ground.Its a big price if the ground doesnt prove a problem.
Back Noble Witness 10pts at 8.0 at bet365(Accept 5.0)-Won(+57pts)Avenging Ace was a non runner but this was still well backed and jumped fantastic out of that ground to grind it out.
1.0 Lingfield-Derfenna Art is the solid one here but with a few potential improvers lurking,i dont feel the price is big enough to back but i cant have Whingeing Willie where it is in the market.It needs to improve to win this and as already mentioned there are improvers namely Duke of Destiny(only 4 runs and stepping up in trip) Holy Roman Warrior(Moved to a top stable) and Whispering Warrior(1st run in a handicap)
Lay Whingeing Willie 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)This was a good call,Derfenna Art despite being very weak in the betting,ran really well but the money came for the unexposed Whispering Warrior.(DT+87pts)
Days total minus commission+85.5pts
Monthly Total+395.34pts
Running Total+4512.25pts
Back Noble Witness 10pts at 8.0 at bet365(Accept 5.0)-Won(+57pts)Avenging Ace was a non runner but this was still well backed and jumped fantastic out of that ground to grind it out.
1.0 Lingfield-Derfenna Art is the solid one here but with a few potential improvers lurking,i dont feel the price is big enough to back but i cant have Whingeing Willie where it is in the market.It needs to improve to win this and as already mentioned there are improvers namely Duke of Destiny(only 4 runs and stepping up in trip) Holy Roman Warrior(Moved to a top stable) and Whispering Warrior(1st run in a handicap)
Lay Whingeing Willie 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)This was a good call,Derfenna Art despite being very weak in the betting,ran really well but the money came for the unexposed Whispering Warrior.(DT+87pts)
Days total minus commission+85.5pts
Monthly Total+395.34pts
Running Total+4512.25pts
27th December
1215 Lingfield-2 horse race and theres no doubt Drawnfromthepast(a winner for the blog last time) is a massive player but there is nothing between it and Beauty Pageant on my ratings.There shouldnt be such a difference in the prices.
Back Beauty Pageant 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)
315 Kempon-Taking on Henderson/Geraghty isnt normally the greatest idea but surely this horse is only near the front of the market because of connections.It was a good hurdler but in 4 runs over fences its got loads to find.It last showed any top form back in 2010 and clearly seems to be not the same horse these days.Brackloon High,Mister Hyde,Our Bomber Harris and Sizing Santiago are very tough opponents even if it was.
Lay Spirit River 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+11.87pts
Monthly Total+309.84pts
Running Total|+4426.75pts
Back Beauty Pageant 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)
315 Kempon-Taking on Henderson/Geraghty isnt normally the greatest idea but surely this horse is only near the front of the market because of connections.It was a good hurdler but in 4 runs over fences its got loads to find.It last showed any top form back in 2010 and clearly seems to be not the same horse these days.Brackloon High,Mister Hyde,Our Bomber Harris and Sizing Santiago are very tough opponents even if it was.
Lay Spirit River 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+11.87pts
Monthly Total+309.84pts
Running Total|+4426.75pts
26th December
145 Wetherby-Ballyolivers consistency should stand it in good stead here as a host of these have question marks against them.Junior should be a non runner here.
Back Ballyoliver 9.5pts at 5.2(10pts 4.5 after non runner)-3rd(-9.5pts)
220 Wetherby-Ski Sunday is clear top rated and handles heavy.
Back Ski Sunday 16pts at 3.25-Wasnt matched
325 Wincanton-2 horse race between Rody and Rouge et Blanc but the latters last rating is superior.Elenika should be a non runner here.
Back Rouge et Blanc 20pts at 3.25(20pts at 3.0 after non runner)-2nd(-20pts)
220 Ffos Las-Firebird Flyer holds strong claims with Benefit of Youth & Bravo Bravo next best
Back Firebird Flyer 20pts at 3.25-Won(+45pts)(DT+15.5pts)
255 Ffos las-Take over Sivola is respected but Frontier Spirit should go close here.Character Actor and Rouge et Blanc should be non runners here.
Back Frontier Spirit 8.5pts at 5.8(12pts at 4.0 after non runners)-Won(+36pts)Easiest winner of the day(DT+51.5pts)
330 Ffos las-The bottomless stamina of Mortimers Cross will be an asset here.Global Power should be a non runner.
Back Mortimers Cross 12pts at 5.5(11pts at 4.5 after non runner)-UP(-11pts)(DT+40.5pts)
235 Kempton-Good race that looks between Countryside Flame and Darlan.Cinders and Ashes has at least 10Ibs to find.
Lay Cinders and Ashes 30pts at 6.0-4th(+30pts)(DT+70.5pts)
210 Market Rasen-Theres a tiny query about the right handed track but other than that,Overyou is very consistent and will love the conditions.
Back Overyou 11.5pts at 4.5-2nd(-11.5pts)Looked the certain winner at the last.(DT+59pts)
155 Sedgefield-Soft Spoken Guy is better over further and Dunowen Point and River Dragon should be too good.Walser is unexposed.
Lay Soft Spoken Guy 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)(DT+89pts)
Days total minus commission+84.55pts
Monthly Total+297.97pts
Running Total+4414.88pts
Back Ballyoliver 9.5pts at 5.2(10pts 4.5 after non runner)-3rd(-9.5pts)
220 Wetherby-Ski Sunday is clear top rated and handles heavy.
Back Ski Sunday 16pts at 3.25-Wasnt matched
325 Wincanton-2 horse race between Rody and Rouge et Blanc but the latters last rating is superior.Elenika should be a non runner here.
Back Rouge et Blanc 20pts at 3.25(20pts at 3.0 after non runner)-2nd(-20pts)
220 Ffos Las-Firebird Flyer holds strong claims with Benefit of Youth & Bravo Bravo next best
Back Firebird Flyer 20pts at 3.25-Won(+45pts)(DT+15.5pts)
255 Ffos las-Take over Sivola is respected but Frontier Spirit should go close here.Character Actor and Rouge et Blanc should be non runners here.
Back Frontier Spirit 8.5pts at 5.8(12pts at 4.0 after non runners)-Won(+36pts)Easiest winner of the day(DT+51.5pts)
330 Ffos las-The bottomless stamina of Mortimers Cross will be an asset here.Global Power should be a non runner.
Back Mortimers Cross 12pts at 5.5(11pts at 4.5 after non runner)-UP(-11pts)(DT+40.5pts)
235 Kempton-Good race that looks between Countryside Flame and Darlan.Cinders and Ashes has at least 10Ibs to find.
Lay Cinders and Ashes 30pts at 6.0-4th(+30pts)(DT+70.5pts)
210 Market Rasen-Theres a tiny query about the right handed track but other than that,Overyou is very consistent and will love the conditions.
Back Overyou 11.5pts at 4.5-2nd(-11.5pts)Looked the certain winner at the last.(DT+59pts)
155 Sedgefield-Soft Spoken Guy is better over further and Dunowen Point and River Dragon should be too good.Walser is unexposed.
Lay Soft Spoken Guy 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)(DT+89pts)
Days total minus commission+84.55pts
Monthly Total+297.97pts
Running Total+4414.88pts
22nd December
215 Haydock-Good race and although Merry King is very much respected,Im going to go for Douglas Julian,who looks inconsistent but appears to have a very clear pattern in its profile.2/3 in December,when returning to the track after 8 to 14 days(4 from 4) and on heavy ground 5 out 7.If there is 1 non runner than that only increases its chance as its 6win-0places-9races in fields of 9 or less.
Back Douglas Julian 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5)-UP(-7pts)
250 Haydock-Desert Cry makes the market here,it may well improve on its handicap debut but ive got it over a stone behind my top rated horse.That horse is Doctor David,who was a very good horse 2 seasons ago before getting injured and is now getting back to where it once was.It drops in grade today into a class 3(4wins-1place-8runs) and back at its fav track(3wins-1place-5runs).Diamond Frontier is the danger on my ratings and I will(Ive promised myself i would start doing this)include it in a forecast.
Back Doctor David 8pts at 7.0(Accept 5.5)
Back Doctor David and Diamond Frontier in a 1pt exacta-UP(-9pts)
315 Wolverhampton-Fairyinthewind has a chance but shouldnt be fav on my ratings,its 0/3 at Wolverhampton,i much prefer Knowe Head(2wins-0place-3runs)in field sof 9 or less,The Moongoose and Strike Force.
Lay Fairyinthewind 30pts at 3.75-Non runner(DT-16pts)
Monthly Total+213.42pts
Running Total+4330.33pts
Back Douglas Julian 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5)-UP(-7pts)
250 Haydock-Desert Cry makes the market here,it may well improve on its handicap debut but ive got it over a stone behind my top rated horse.That horse is Doctor David,who was a very good horse 2 seasons ago before getting injured and is now getting back to where it once was.It drops in grade today into a class 3(4wins-1place-8runs) and back at its fav track(3wins-1place-5runs).Diamond Frontier is the danger on my ratings and I will(Ive promised myself i would start doing this)include it in a forecast.
Back Doctor David 8pts at 7.0(Accept 5.5)
Back Doctor David and Diamond Frontier in a 1pt exacta-UP(-9pts)
315 Wolverhampton-Fairyinthewind has a chance but shouldnt be fav on my ratings,its 0/3 at Wolverhampton,i much prefer Knowe Head(2wins-0place-3runs)in field sof 9 or less,The Moongoose and Strike Force.
Lay Fairyinthewind 30pts at 3.75-Non runner(DT-16pts)
Monthly Total+213.42pts
Running Total+4330.33pts
21st December
305 Ascot-Farmer Matt is the value call in a race where obvious dangers are quite thin on the ground.The selection put up the top rated performance last time and looks to be improving.Spanish Arch is the main danger.
Back Farmer Matt 10pts at 5.0 at Bet365 & others-Won(+40pts)Well backed into 3.25 and won nicely
120 Ascot-Although a loser for the blog last time,I feel Be Definite has got the ratings and profile to win this.In 6 races in its lifetime at 2m2f or shorter on very soft ground,its 3 wins and 3 2nds.The unexposed Jumps Road and Mentalist are the clear dangers.
Back Be Definite 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-UP(-9pts)For such a consistent horse,this was an incredibly bad performance.was beaten after 2 fences.(DT+31pts)
450 Wolverhampton-Typical ,low grade sprint handicap.Im positive about the chances of Cri Na Mara,whos ran here 5 times and on 3 of those occasions,has put up its best ratings in its career to date.It has a poor record fresh ,so you can write off its last 2 runs and anything close to its 3 runs here last winter will see it go very close.
Back Cri Na Mara 8pts at 10.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-8pts)Nicely backed and showed good speed for 3f but weakened well out of it.(DT+23pts)
Days total minus commission+21.85pts)
Monthly Total+229.42pts
Running Total+4346.33pts
Back Farmer Matt 10pts at 5.0 at Bet365 & others-Won(+40pts)Well backed into 3.25 and won nicely
120 Ascot-Although a loser for the blog last time,I feel Be Definite has got the ratings and profile to win this.In 6 races in its lifetime at 2m2f or shorter on very soft ground,its 3 wins and 3 2nds.The unexposed Jumps Road and Mentalist are the clear dangers.
Back Be Definite 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-UP(-9pts)For such a consistent horse,this was an incredibly bad performance.was beaten after 2 fences.(DT+31pts)
450 Wolverhampton-Typical ,low grade sprint handicap.Im positive about the chances of Cri Na Mara,whos ran here 5 times and on 3 of those occasions,has put up its best ratings in its career to date.It has a poor record fresh ,so you can write off its last 2 runs and anything close to its 3 runs here last winter will see it go very close.
Back Cri Na Mara 8pts at 10.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-8pts)Nicely backed and showed good speed for 3f but weakened well out of it.(DT+23pts)
Days total minus commission+21.85pts)
Monthly Total+229.42pts
Running Total+4346.33pts
20th December
330 Lingfield-Noble Silk and Tartan Jura look strong here with Standpoint,Nave and Wildomar not out of either.Beat Route has won here but is better at Kempton,better at slightly shorter and better in a lower grade than this.
Lay Beat Route 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Was a massive drifter for a very profitable pre race trade-out if you so wished.
110 Towcester-Not a strong race and Thorncliffers steady progressive profile stands out.Its clear top rated and should go close.
Back Thorncliffer 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)A poor run
310 Towcester-Topaze Collonges will go well here but i have a slight doubt about it going right handed(0wins-1place-5runs).Kap West is 1w-1p-2runs at this track and has been very consistent and should be favourite.Noble Witness 0/10 on good to soft or softer.
Back Kap West 8.5pts at 5.7-Wasnt matched.(DT+10pts)
Days total minus commission+9.5pts
Monthly Total+207.57pts
Running Total+4324.48pts
Lay Beat Route 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Was a massive drifter for a very profitable pre race trade-out if you so wished.
110 Towcester-Not a strong race and Thorncliffers steady progressive profile stands out.Its clear top rated and should go close.
Back Thorncliffer 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)A poor run
310 Towcester-Topaze Collonges will go well here but i have a slight doubt about it going right handed(0wins-1place-5runs).Kap West is 1w-1p-2runs at this track and has been very consistent and should be favourite.Noble Witness 0/10 on good to soft or softer.
Back Kap West 8.5pts at 5.7-Wasnt matched.(DT+10pts)
Days total minus commission+9.5pts
Monthly Total+207.57pts
Running Total+4324.48pts
19th December
340 Lingfield-Finding it difficult to see why Final Delivery is near the front of the betting.Stamina doubt,inconsistent and well beaten on every run in class 5 company.English Summer,Strike Force and The Wonga Coup are all pretty solid against it.
Lay Final Delivery 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
250 Newbury-I like High Kite,Chartreux,Barbriggan and Fabolous Fred here while although Honest John has won its last 2 races,on my ratings it needs to step forward again.
Lay Honest John 30pts at 5.7-Non Runner(Really pleased I wasted so much time on these 2 races LOL)
225 Newbury-Looks a 2 horse race to me with Rose of the moon showing good current form and will be a tough opponent but I think the market has it and Diamond Harry the wrong way round.`Harry` has some ratings much better than these and should prevail.
Back Diamond Harry 16pts at 3.15-Won(+34.40pts)
Days total minus commission+32.80pts
Monthly Total+197.07pts
Running Total+4314.98pts
Lay Final Delivery 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
250 Newbury-I like High Kite,Chartreux,Barbriggan and Fabolous Fred here while although Honest John has won its last 2 races,on my ratings it needs to step forward again.
Lay Honest John 30pts at 5.7-Non Runner(Really pleased I wasted so much time on these 2 races LOL)
225 Newbury-Looks a 2 horse race to me with Rose of the moon showing good current form and will be a tough opponent but I think the market has it and Diamond Harry the wrong way round.`Harry` has some ratings much better than these and should prevail.
Back Diamond Harry 16pts at 3.15-Won(+34.40pts)
Days total minus commission+32.80pts
Monthly Total+197.07pts
Running Total+4314.98pts
18th January
140 Catterick-Fentara has put 2 good performances together on both of its chase starts and looks progressive.Its profile is also good(0-9 runners)2wins-2places-6runs (In December)1win-1place-3runs and on (Soft/Heavy)3wins-3places-8runs.Ballyoliver looks pretty short to me and on my ratings has to improve but it may well do so while ive got Brunswick Gold as the main danger.
Back Fentara 10pts at 6.0(Accept 5.0)-Fell(-10pts)Back into favouritism and staying on strongly to win the race when fell at the last
Back Fentara 10pts at 6.0(Accept 5.0)-Fell(-10pts)Back into favouritism and staying on strongly to win the race when fell at the last
16th December
250 Musselburgh-Im expecting the price of Morning Time to shorten up,the current 8/1 is massive value considering the rating it achieved on its chase debut plus the topspeed figure was also very good.Bhaltair is the obvious fav but is short enough.
Back Morning Time 12pts at 9.0 at William Hill(9pm Sat night) (Accept 4.5)-UP(-12pts)Jumped left throughout.
2.0 Carlisle-Overquest is a strong fav here and must go well but there appears to be a strong pattern in Do it for Dalkeys form that I feel makes it at least Overquests equal here.Its 3/6 at this track,4wins-1place-9runs between October and January and 2wins-1place-5runs after a break of 80days or more.However if you put that all together and look for any time its had all those circumstances together(like today) then its record stands at 1st/1st/1st.It has to be backed.
Back Do it for Dalkey 12pts at 5.0(Accept 4.3)-few non runners Revised 20pts at 3.5-2nd(-20pts)Got down to 1.5 in running for a profitable trade out when looking the winner 2 out
310 Hereford-Always been one of my lucky tracks and on its last raceday,it would be nice to bow out with a winner.Doubleoilntrouble is quite progressive as a chaser and can get the better of Royale Knight.
Back Doubleoilntrouble 16pts at 3.35-2nd(-16pts)Frustrating day(DT-48pts)
Monthly Total+164.27pts
Running Total+4282.18pts
Back Morning Time 12pts at 9.0 at William Hill(9pm Sat night) (Accept 4.5)-UP(-12pts)Jumped left throughout.
2.0 Carlisle-Overquest is a strong fav here and must go well but there appears to be a strong pattern in Do it for Dalkeys form that I feel makes it at least Overquests equal here.Its 3/6 at this track,4wins-1place-9runs between October and January and 2wins-1place-5runs after a break of 80days or more.However if you put that all together and look for any time its had all those circumstances together(like today) then its record stands at 1st/1st/1st.It has to be backed.
Back Do it for Dalkey 12pts at 5.0(Accept 4.3)-few non runners Revised 20pts at 3.5-2nd(-20pts)Got down to 1.5 in running for a profitable trade out when looking the winner 2 out
310 Hereford-Always been one of my lucky tracks and on its last raceday,it would be nice to bow out with a winner.Doubleoilntrouble is quite progressive as a chaser and can get the better of Royale Knight.
Back Doubleoilntrouble 16pts at 3.35-2nd(-16pts)Frustrating day(DT-48pts)
Monthly Total+164.27pts
Running Total+4282.18pts
15th December
255 Lingfield-Hopefully this meeting will pass the inspection as I quite like the chances of Rigadin De Beauchene.Providing its jumping holds up its clear top rated with a solid 1win-2places-4runs on heavy ground.Well Refreshed and Nodebateaboutit look the dangers.
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 15pts at 4.5 (Accept 4.0)at Bet365 or Betvictor-2nd(-15pts)Ran a great race,really should start thinking about putting the dangers in a forecast with the selection.This paid £56.
120 Cheltenham-Garynella is impossible to assess and the market is positive about it at the moment,that could be a problem but Oh Crick has got lots in its favour and is top rated on its last run.Shooters Wood is improving but has got it to prove on the ground.
Back Oh Crick 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-PU(-9pts)(DT-24pts)
135 Doncaster-Meetings Man is such a big price,it has to be backed here.It achieved a good rating last tine and a excellent topspeed figure.Its quite a competitve race but it should be nearer the 5/2 mark for me.
Back Meeting Man 10pts at 9.6(Accept 6.0)-Non Runner
Monthly Total+212.27pts
Running Total+4330.18pts
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 15pts at 4.5 (Accept 4.0)at Bet365 or Betvictor-2nd(-15pts)Ran a great race,really should start thinking about putting the dangers in a forecast with the selection.This paid £56.
120 Cheltenham-Garynella is impossible to assess and the market is positive about it at the moment,that could be a problem but Oh Crick has got lots in its favour and is top rated on its last run.Shooters Wood is improving but has got it to prove on the ground.
Back Oh Crick 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-PU(-9pts)(DT-24pts)
135 Doncaster-Meetings Man is such a big price,it has to be backed here.It achieved a good rating last tine and a excellent topspeed figure.Its quite a competitve race but it should be nearer the 5/2 mark for me.
Back Meeting Man 10pts at 9.6(Accept 6.0)-Non Runner
Monthly Total+212.27pts
Running Total+4330.18pts
14th December
155 Cheltenham-I like the chances of Bradley here,who is clear top rated on its last run.Added to that there are no negatives in its profile,In fields of 9 or less(2wins-1place-4runs) and at this track(2wins-2places-6runs) and it will love the forecasdt rain,It looks sure to run well with Quartz De Thaix and Midnight Chase following it home.Becauseicouldntsee should be nearer a 12/1 chance on my ratings and im happy to take it on.
Back Bradley 15pts at 4.3(Accept 4.0)-5th and Lay Becauseicouldntsee 30pts at 6.0-PU(+15pts)Bradley put in a sloppy jumping performance and that meant it couldnt ever quite get into it while BecauseIcouldntsee ran as expected.
Back Bradley 15pts at 4.3(Accept 4.0)-5th and Lay Becauseicouldntsee 30pts at 6.0-PU(+15pts)Bradley put in a sloppy jumping performance and that meant it couldnt ever quite get into it while BecauseIcouldntsee ran as expected.
12th December
140 Leicester-Oscar Hill looks very strong here with conditions to suit.Its clear top rated,2/2 in class 5 races and 3/5 racing right handed.Not til Monday looks the danger.
Back Oscar Hill 25pts at 3.0
210 Leicester-Pretty competitve race but Nom De Guerre looks a bit of value.Top rated on its last run,1win-1place-3runs at this track and Darryl Jacob has ridden it the both times its won.
Back Nom De Guerre 8pts at 7.4
Meeting Abandoned
Back Oscar Hill 25pts at 3.0
210 Leicester-Pretty competitve race but Nom De Guerre looks a bit of value.Top rated on its last run,1win-1place-3runs at this track and Darryl Jacob has ridden it the both times its won.
Back Nom De Guerre 8pts at 7.4
Meeting Abandoned
10th December
210 Lingfield-Although not proven at this track,Viewpoint looks a bit of value after a really good run last time.John Gosdens Hill Street is morning fav and obviously could be anything but it does make the market.Robin Hoods Bay looks a far more obvious danger.
Back View Point 9pts at 6.4(Accept 5.7)-Won(+48.6pts)Won with a bit in hand
2.0 Fakenham-Frontier Spirit won this race last year and has obviously been teed up for it again.It ran well on its seasonal debut when just weakening late over a trip too far and back at this specialist track where its finished 1st and 2nd in its 2 starts,it looks sure to run well.Camden and Cross of Honour are the dangers.
Back Frontier Spirit 10pts at 4.5-2nd(-10pts)So frustrating to be collared just 10 yards from the post.It must have traded very low in running.Swap the jockeys over and we would have won,im certain of that.(DT+38.6pts)
Days total minus commission+36.67pts
Monthly Total+221.27pts
Running Total+4339.18pts
Back View Point 9pts at 6.4(Accept 5.7)-Won(+48.6pts)Won with a bit in hand
2.0 Fakenham-Frontier Spirit won this race last year and has obviously been teed up for it again.It ran well on its seasonal debut when just weakening late over a trip too far and back at this specialist track where its finished 1st and 2nd in its 2 starts,it looks sure to run well.Camden and Cross of Honour are the dangers.
Back Frontier Spirit 10pts at 4.5-2nd(-10pts)So frustrating to be collared just 10 yards from the post.It must have traded very low in running.Swap the jockeys over and we would have won,im certain of that.(DT+38.6pts)
Days total minus commission+36.67pts
Monthly Total+221.27pts
Running Total+4339.18pts
9th December
240 Warwick-I can see this trip really suited Mission Complete,whos slowly improving over fences.Loves soft ground(2wins-1place-4runs) and only wins in small fields(3w-3-10r).Reblis and Ten Fires are much respected.Jolly Boys Outing has lots to prove after a break and on this ground.
Back Mission Complete 10pts at 5.0-Won(NRs revised price 4.7) & Lay Jolly Boys Outing 30pts at 6.0-UP(+67pts)
1220 Lingfield-This is a really poor race and most of these find winning difficult if not impossible.Brandywell Boy has won plenty of races down the years and returned to form last time and loves this track.Anything close to that last run wins this with jockey Silvestre De Sousa 33% when riding for this yard.
Back Brandywell Boy 14pts at 4.3(Accept 3.9)-4th(-14pts)(DT+53pts)
120 Lingfield-Quite a competitive claimer with Faithful Ruler,Onewayoranother,Sir George,Aciano and Gunner Will all coming out higher than Conducting on my ratings,that looks much too short to me.
Lay Conducting 30pts at 5.7-UP(+30pts)(DT+83pts)
Days total minus commission+78.85pts
Monthly Total+184.60pts
Running Total+4302.51pts
Back Mission Complete 10pts at 5.0-Won(NRs revised price 4.7) & Lay Jolly Boys Outing 30pts at 6.0-UP(+67pts)
1220 Lingfield-This is a really poor race and most of these find winning difficult if not impossible.Brandywell Boy has won plenty of races down the years and returned to form last time and loves this track.Anything close to that last run wins this with jockey Silvestre De Sousa 33% when riding for this yard.
Back Brandywell Boy 14pts at 4.3(Accept 3.9)-4th(-14pts)(DT+53pts)
120 Lingfield-Quite a competitive claimer with Faithful Ruler,Onewayoranother,Sir George,Aciano and Gunner Will all coming out higher than Conducting on my ratings,that looks much too short to me.
Lay Conducting 30pts at 5.7-UP(+30pts)(DT+83pts)
Days total minus commission+78.85pts
Monthly Total+184.60pts
Running Total+4302.51pts
8th December
315 Chepstow-Noble Legend is a decent price on Friday evening for a progressive chaser that will handle the conditions.Theres a couple who may improve on what theyve done so far but it would be no surprise if the selection improved again
Back Noble Legend 10pts at 4.5 at bet365(Friday 8pm)-2nd(-10pts)Ran a gallant race
320 Aintree-I wanted to see if there was any overnight nibbles for Little Josh and there has been,therefore I think this horse will run a big race today.It has a good record after a break of 80 days or more(2wins-1place-4runs),in fields of 9 or less(5w-1p-10r) and on soft/heavy ground(5w-0p-6r).
Back Little Josh 11pts at 6.6(Accept 4.5)-Won(+61.6pts)
145 Wetherby-Lease Lend is very strong here and must run well with Rossinis Dancer following it home.Prosseco is a much better horse at Ayr(0/17 elsewhere) and ive got it rated behind the 2 mentioned anyway.
Lay Prosseco 30pts at 4.0-Won(-90pts)The weakness in the betting of Rossinis Dancer worried me & i traded out for a small profit but we will count it as a loser.(DT-38.4pts)
Monthly Total+105.75pts
Running Total+4223.66pts
Back Noble Legend 10pts at 4.5 at bet365(Friday 8pm)-2nd(-10pts)Ran a gallant race
320 Aintree-I wanted to see if there was any overnight nibbles for Little Josh and there has been,therefore I think this horse will run a big race today.It has a good record after a break of 80 days or more(2wins-1place-4runs),in fields of 9 or less(5w-1p-10r) and on soft/heavy ground(5w-0p-6r).
Back Little Josh 11pts at 6.6(Accept 4.5)-Won(+61.6pts)
145 Wetherby-Lease Lend is very strong here and must run well with Rossinis Dancer following it home.Prosseco is a much better horse at Ayr(0/17 elsewhere) and ive got it rated behind the 2 mentioned anyway.
Lay Prosseco 30pts at 4.0-Won(-90pts)The weakness in the betting of Rossinis Dancer worried me & i traded out for a small profit but we will count it as a loser.(DT-38.4pts)
Monthly Total+105.75pts
Running Total+4223.66pts
6th December
240 Wincanton-There is a slight nagging doubt about the drop in distance but the sheer consistency of Quaddick Lake means it should run its race and if it does,it must be bang there.
Back Quaddick Lake 10pts 5.0-Won(+40pts)Got an absolute peach of a ride from Nick Schofield.
Days total minus commission+38pts
Monthly Total+144.15pts
Running Total+4262.06pts
Back Quaddick Lake 10pts 5.0-Won(+40pts)Got an absolute peach of a ride from Nick Schofield.
Days total minus commission+38pts
Monthly Total+144.15pts
Running Total+4262.06pts
5th December
210 Hereford-The early 3/1 about Drumshambo looks decent value.Its only had 3 runs over fences and each one has seen its ratings improve.Its profile suggest plenty in its favour as well,1win-2places-3runs in December,3w-3p-8r in fields of 9 or less.3w-1p-5r on soft ground and in class 4 races its 4w-1p-7r.Bendant is quite difficult to assess and may be the main danger.
Back Drumshambo 15pts at 4.0 at Ladbrokes(Tuesday evening 8pm)(Accept 3.5)
-Won(+45pts)Really well backed and did the job
1230 Lingfield-Sonko is 3/3 at the track and has to run well but ive got Drawnfromthepast top rated.It barely runs a bad race is 4wins-2places-9runs in class 6 races.Lujeanie has a bit to find on my ratings and is 0wins-3places-10runs over 5furlongs.
Back Drawnfromthepast 12pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75)-Won & Lujeanie 30pts at 5.5-2nd(+72pts)
Lujeanie never looked like winning and it was a great day!(DT+117pts)
Days Total minus commission+111.15pts
Monthly Total+106.15pts
Running Total+4224.06pts
Back Drumshambo 15pts at 4.0 at Ladbrokes(Tuesday evening 8pm)(Accept 3.5)
-Won(+45pts)Really well backed and did the job
1230 Lingfield-Sonko is 3/3 at the track and has to run well but ive got Drawnfromthepast top rated.It barely runs a bad race is 4wins-2places-9runs in class 6 races.Lujeanie has a bit to find on my ratings and is 0wins-3places-10runs over 5furlongs.
Back Drawnfromthepast 12pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75)-Won & Lujeanie 30pts at 5.5-2nd(+72pts)
Lujeanie never looked like winning and it was a great day!(DT+117pts)
Days Total minus commission+111.15pts
Monthly Total+106.15pts
Running Total+4224.06pts
3rd December
310 Plumpton-This is wide open with a few holding a chance.Dushy Valley must run well while im a little surprised to see Pretty Penny shorten up overnight.From a purely value point of view,I will have a little on Laughing Game,who has posted some consistent ratings on its last 6 runs.
Back Laughing Game 5pts at 11.0(Accept 9.0)-3rd(-5pts)Another consistent run but just couldnt go with the front 2 from 3 out.
Back Laughing Game 5pts at 11.0(Accept 9.0)-3rd(-5pts)Another consistent run but just couldnt go with the front 2 from 3 out.
2nd December
255 Leicester-Slowly but surely,Thorncliffer is gradually improving and could take this weak event if it continues its progress.Forever my Friend is the danger.
Back Thorncliffer 6pts at 10.0(Accept 9.0)
Back Thorncliffer 6pts at 10.0(Accept 9.0)
30th November
110 Musselburgh-Tutchev made a good start as a chaser last time,posting the top rating.It should run well given improvement.Ballymacduff has a record of 1 win from 32 starts.It has lots of negatives in its profile and im happy to take that on.Pinkworth & Sum Laff should run well.
Back Tutchev 8.5pts at 5.8 & Lay Ballymacduff 30pts at 5.7-Abandoned
155 Doncaster-Be Definite has posted consistent ratings and is 1win-2places-4runs in November.It looks the one to beat.Tahiti Pearl is improving but has to once more plus prove its stamina over this trip.Mr Syntax will run better than the market says as its hit the frame every time after a long break but its ratings arent quite good enough to warrant a bet.
Back Be Definite 13pts at 3.65-4th(-13pts)Looked like it didnt quite get home
555 Wolverhampton-Good race for a Friday night at this track.Lockantanks,Kingscroft and Grey Mirage are all respected but the return to this track should see Mias Boy go close.Its 2wins-3places-6runs here plus 5wins-5places-19runs in fields of 9 or less and 3wins-2places-8runs in class 3 races.
Back Mias Boy 6pts at 12.0(Accept 9.0)-4th(-6pts)Poor end to a Poor month.(DT-19pts)
Monthly Total-114.38pts
Running Total+4117.91pts
Back Tutchev 8.5pts at 5.8 & Lay Ballymacduff 30pts at 5.7-Abandoned
155 Doncaster-Be Definite has posted consistent ratings and is 1win-2places-4runs in November.It looks the one to beat.Tahiti Pearl is improving but has to once more plus prove its stamina over this trip.Mr Syntax will run better than the market says as its hit the frame every time after a long break but its ratings arent quite good enough to warrant a bet.
Back Be Definite 13pts at 3.65-4th(-13pts)Looked like it didnt quite get home
555 Wolverhampton-Good race for a Friday night at this track.Lockantanks,Kingscroft and Grey Mirage are all respected but the return to this track should see Mias Boy go close.Its 2wins-3places-6runs here plus 5wins-5places-19runs in fields of 9 or less and 3wins-2places-8runs in class 3 races.
Back Mias Boy 6pts at 12.0(Accept 9.0)-4th(-6pts)Poor end to a Poor month.(DT-19pts)
Monthly Total-114.38pts
Running Total+4117.91pts
29th November
215 Taunton-Well Sharp could be different class to these but back from a break and on ground it hasnt handled as yet,it makes the market.Graphite will handle the ground and the distance & looks the value.
Back Graphite 6.5pts at 7.0-2nd(-6.5pts)
Back Graphite 6.5pts at 7.0-2nd(-6.5pts)
28th November
320 Wolverhampton-Its a wide open race but at a massive price,Im going to have a bit on Whozthecat,who is 2/3 around Wolverhampton and if repeating its run here 2 starts ago,will go very close.
Back Whozthecat 5pts at 15.0(Accept 12.0)-UP(-5pts)
7.0 Kempton-Swiss Cross is a solid fav but is the right price.Ubetterbegood is very unexposed and won at this track over 5f getting up close home.The step up in trip could see more improvement and if it does,it wont be far away.
Back Ubetterbegood 8pts 7.6-Not Matched
Back Whozthecat 5pts at 15.0(Accept 12.0)-UP(-5pts)
7.0 Kempton-Swiss Cross is a solid fav but is the right price.Ubetterbegood is very unexposed and won at this track over 5f getting up close home.The step up in trip could see more improvement and if it does,it wont be far away.
Back Ubetterbegood 8pts 7.6-Not Matched
27th November
230 Lingfield-Volcan Surprise has a bit to find on my ratings & its unlikely to make up that gap on its first run of the season.If the racing does get the go ahead then I think Dormouse,Synth Davis and Ya Hafed will battle out the finish.
Lay Volcan Surprise 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50
Monthly Total-83.88pts
Running Total+4143.41pts
Really sorry for people following this because I forgot to click `publish` this morning :-(
Hopefully some people saw the selection as I did manage to post it on OLBG at 6.56 this morning.
http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=41472&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=252&sid=c37d7d90a184be356c199e9cddcc00a4
Lay Volcan Surprise 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50
Monthly Total-83.88pts
Running Total+4143.41pts
Really sorry for people following this because I forgot to click `publish` this morning :-(
Hopefully some people saw the selection as I did manage to post it on OLBG at 6.56 this morning.
http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=41472&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=252&sid=c37d7d90a184be356c199e9cddcc00a4
24th November
1255 Haydock-Fiercely competitive handicap and one in which Ile De Re looks far too short.It may improve for the step up in trip but it certainly needs to.Double Ross,Black Thunder,Poole Master and Yesyoucan lead the way in what I believe weve got running for us.
Lay Ile De Re 30pts at 4.0(Lay upto 5.5)-UP(+30pts)
3.0 Lingfield-Blanc De Chine holds a decent chance hee,its top rated with Alaskan Bullet but is a much bigger price,is 2wins-1place-3runs on the AW and 3w-3p-9r in fields of 9 or less.Fathom Five is very inconsistent,does its winning between April and June and is 0/3 at Lingfield.
Back Blanc De Chime 6pts at 10.0-NR and Lay Fathom Five 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+57pts
Monthly Total-111.38pts
Running Total+4114.91pts
Lay Ile De Re 30pts at 4.0(Lay upto 5.5)-UP(+30pts)
3.0 Lingfield-Blanc De Chine holds a decent chance hee,its top rated with Alaskan Bullet but is a much bigger price,is 2wins-1place-3runs on the AW and 3w-3p-9r in fields of 9 or less.Fathom Five is very inconsistent,does its winning between April and June and is 0/3 at Lingfield.
Back Blanc De Chime 6pts at 10.0-NR and Lay Fathom Five 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+57pts
Monthly Total-111.38pts
Running Total+4114.91pts
22nd November
210 Market Rasen-2 horse race for me with Midnight Sail and Mister Hyde holding strong claims.Dawn Commander hasnt had many chances over fences but has a lot to find to trouble these.
Lay Dawn Commander 30pts at 6.0-UP
240 Market Rasen-Flemi Two Shoes goes well fresh,is 1win-1place-2runs in November and is 2w-1p-4r in fields of 9 or less.Red Hot Poker was outlassed last time but back down to this grade(3w-1p-6r) it should be very competitve.
Back Flemi Two Shoes 5pts at 10.0-3rd & Red Hot Poker 6.5pts at 7.6-UP(-11.5pts)
Lay Dawn Commander 30pts at 6.0-UP
240 Market Rasen-Flemi Two Shoes goes well fresh,is 1win-1place-2runs in November and is 2w-1p-4r in fields of 9 or less.Red Hot Poker was outlassed last time but back down to this grade(3w-1p-6r) it should be very competitve.
Back Flemi Two Shoes 5pts at 10.0-3rd & Red Hot Poker 6.5pts at 7.6-UP(-11.5pts)
21st November
310 Hexham-A very weak race that Shoal Bay Dreamer looks to have a decent chance.It won last time over CD and its record in November is 1win-1place-2runs.Samson Collonges is very inconsistent but won last time over further and is the main danger.
Back Shoal Bay Dreamer 15pts at 3.35-4th(-15pts)Jumped the last in front & finished 4th!
340 Hexham-Rupert Bear is solid here,consistent and a record of 2wins-1place-3runs in fields of 9 or less and 2w-1p-4r on heavy ground.On ratings though,others have chances,Stanley Bridge should run well while Ritso and Ruff Diamond arent out of it.Im taking on Claude Carter with a poor 0w=0p-11r on soft or heavy ground and 0w-2p-9r in fields or 9 or less.
Lay Claude Carter 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
Back Shoal Bay Dreamer 15pts at 3.35-4th(-15pts)Jumped the last in front & finished 4th!
340 Hexham-Rupert Bear is solid here,consistent and a record of 2wins-1place-3runs in fields of 9 or less and 2w-1p-4r on heavy ground.On ratings though,others have chances,Stanley Bridge should run well while Ritso and Ruff Diamond arent out of it.Im taking on Claude Carter with a poor 0w=0p-11r on soft or heavy ground and 0w-2p-9r in fields or 9 or less.
Lay Claude Carter 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
20th November
3.0 Fakenham-Stamina not guaranteed but Farewellatmidnight should be fine around its fav track(2wins-1place-4runs) & its sire has got plenty of 3mile winners.Its also 3w-0p-7r in fields of 9 or less.Misstree Dancer is fav but has better ratings at shorter and is 0w-1p-5r when carrying over 11st 8.Midnight Macarena is quite consistent but has some negatives in its profile,mainly 0/2 around this track(0-9 runners) 0/2 & (Class 4 races))w-1p-10r.
Back Farewellatmidnight 17pts at 3.5 at William Hill(Accept 3.15)-UP(-17pts)Another below par showing,in keeping with so many other selections this month.
Back Farewellatmidnight 17pts at 3.5 at William Hill(Accept 3.15)-UP(-17pts)Another below par showing,in keeping with so many other selections this month.
17th November
110 Wetherby-Billy Cuckoo ran its best race last time on only its 2nd run over fences.Its been an inconsistent horse so the worry is it was a fluke but nothing in this race has a convincing profile.Likely fav Twice Lucky is 0/6 in class 4 races and 0/5 over todays trip.Tregaro should run well but ive got it a few Ilbs below the selection.
Back Billy Cuckoo 8pts at 7.0*1 Non runner*Revised 9.5pts at 5.5-Won(+42.75pts)So thats what a winner feels like!
105 Lingfield-I feel that Bint Alzain will take the beating here.Top rated and with a more consistent profile than its rivals.In class 6 races its 1win-0places-2runs and 2w-0p-8r in fields of 9 or less.Ewel Place is the main danger but has to prove itself over todays trip.
Back Bint Alzain 25pts at 3.25(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-25pts)(DT+17.75pts)
Days total minus commission+16.86pts
Monthly Total-125.88pts
Running Total+4101.41pts
Back Billy Cuckoo 8pts at 7.0*1 Non runner*Revised 9.5pts at 5.5-Won(+42.75pts)So thats what a winner feels like!
105 Lingfield-I feel that Bint Alzain will take the beating here.Top rated and with a more consistent profile than its rivals.In class 6 races its 1win-0places-2runs and 2w-0p-8r in fields of 9 or less.Ewel Place is the main danger but has to prove itself over todays trip.
Back Bint Alzain 25pts at 3.25(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-25pts)(DT+17.75pts)
Days total minus commission+16.86pts
Monthly Total-125.88pts
Running Total+4101.41pts
16th November
310 Newcastle-Bally Gunner is clear top rated after its win last time on only its 2nd run over fences.The step up in trip should see it improve further.Harris hawk is the main danger.
Back Bally Gunner 13pts at 4.0(Accept 3.85)-Pulled up(-13pts)Wasnt strong in the betting like i thought it might be and pulled up before stamina was an issue.Just another poor run.
245 Lingfield-Typical AW race,plenty in with chances but Stonecrabstomorrow is such a big price that ive got to have a bit on it.Its been running up some consistent ratings and is 2wins-2places-8runs at the track.
Back Stonecrabstomorrow 6pts at 13.0(Accept 12.0)-5th(-6pts)(DT-19pts)
Monthly Total-142.74pts
Running Total+4084.55pts
Back Bally Gunner 13pts at 4.0(Accept 3.85)-Pulled up(-13pts)Wasnt strong in the betting like i thought it might be and pulled up before stamina was an issue.Just another poor run.
245 Lingfield-Typical AW race,plenty in with chances but Stonecrabstomorrow is such a big price that ive got to have a bit on it.Its been running up some consistent ratings and is 2wins-2places-8runs at the track.
Back Stonecrabstomorrow 6pts at 13.0(Accept 12.0)-5th(-6pts)(DT-19pts)
Monthly Total-142.74pts
Running Total+4084.55pts
15th November
2.0 Ludlow-Dont really fancy BallyOliver but im reluctant to lay it because of the trainers good form,so i will back 2 against it.Satou`s 4 of its last 5 runs have been in a higher class than this and when its dropped down to this grade its got a record of 1win-2places-4runs,In fields of 9 or less its 2w-1p-5r,2/5 on R/H tracks while Richard Johnson is 1w-1p-2r on it,its top rated on its last run and surely must run well.Nudge and Nurdle is worth a little bit as well as it runs well after a break(40 days or more 4w-3p-15r).
Back Satou 13pts at 4.0(Accept 3.35)-2nd & Nudge and Nurdle 6.5pts at 8.0-UP(-19.5pts)Winner was impossible to find
Monthly Total-123.74pts
Running Total+4103.55pts
Back Satou 13pts at 4.0(Accept 3.35)-2nd & Nudge and Nurdle 6.5pts at 8.0-UP(-19.5pts)Winner was impossible to find
Monthly Total-123.74pts
Running Total+4103.55pts
12th November
1240 Southwell-Osmosia has encountered 2miles on good or faster ground 7 times in its career and won 3 of them.Im hopeful he can the better of Tornade Destruval.
Back Osmosia 14.5pts at 3.45-3rd(-14.5pts)Having a poor time of things obviously,Will have a couple of days off and be back Thursday.
Monthly Total-104.24pts
Running Total+4123.05pts
Back Osmosia 14.5pts at 3.45-3rd(-14.5pts)Having a poor time of things obviously,Will have a couple of days off and be back Thursday.
Monthly Total-104.24pts
Running Total+4123.05pts
11th November
2.0 Ffos Las-Anay Turge is solid and should run well but ive got Whatshallwedo rated higher and with Richard Johnson back on board,it gets the vote.
Back Whatshallwedo 9.5pts at 5.3(Accept 4.5)-3rd(-9.5pts)
320 Market Rasen-Very weak race and one in which Ban Uisce could get its head in front over fences for the 1st time.It ran well as a blog selection last time and dropped in trip,on better ground may improve things further.
Back Ban Uisce 15pts at 3.35-2nd(-15pts)(DT-24.5pts)
Monthly Total-89.74pts
Running Total+4137.55pts
Back Whatshallwedo 9.5pts at 5.3(Accept 4.5)-3rd(-9.5pts)
320 Market Rasen-Very weak race and one in which Ban Uisce could get its head in front over fences for the 1st time.It ran well as a blog selection last time and dropped in trip,on better ground may improve things further.
Back Ban Uisce 15pts at 3.35-2nd(-15pts)(DT-24.5pts)
Monthly Total-89.74pts
Running Total+4137.55pts
10th November
110 Wincanton-Chasers Chance has won its last 2 but on my ratings has to progress again,its also 0wins/2places/12runs when carrying 11st8 or more.I like Knapp Bridge Boy,Henry San,Fairy Rath and Sum Laff against it
Lay Chasers Chance 30pts at 4.0-UP(+30pts)
240 Kelso-2 horse race for me and im happy to go with the value bigger price.Stagecoach Pearl is sure to run well with no negatives in its profile but I prefer the improving Tito Bustillo who is 4wins-1place-7runs between October and December.
Back Tito Bustillo 12pts at 3.9-UP(-12pts)Was meant to be a jumps race,doubt it wouldve made much difference as the 2 market leaders went off too hard early.(DT+18pts)
3.0 Sandown-General Ting is a fair enough fav but this is quite competitive and I think Cheshire Prince will run well but wont reach the price im looking for.Dreambrook Lady is a speculative choice but its 0/8 on left handed tracks and its last 5 runs have been on those,the last time it won was at Huntingdon(a right handed track).It could bounce back to form.
Back Dreambrook Lady 6.5pts at 10.0-UP(-6.5pts)Ground had gone against it but never put in the race at any stage(DT+11.5pts)
335 Sandown-There enough negatives in Graduation Nights profile to warrant taking it on here.In fields of 10 to 15 runners its 0wins-0places-10runs and class 3 races its 0wins-1place-5runs.There are plenty running for us with Time for Spring sure to go well also Bennys Mist will appreciate the R/H track and return to 3m,Imperial Circus is unexposed over fences while Old Wigmore ran its best races early last season and is 2/4 on R/H tracks.
Lay Graduation Night 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)Never going at any stage(DT+41.5pts)
205 Kelso-Lockstown is without doubt the value in this race,it ran really well on its seasonal debut baring in mind,its record fresh is very poor and it has loads of stamina around this stiff track.Knockara Beau has the ratings to outclass these but is very hit or miss.I prefer Lackamons chance to Blenheim Brook.
Back Lockstown 7pts at 8.0(Accept 5.5)-UP(-7pts)Never in it,Knockara Beau in a different class(DT+34.5pts)
Days total minus commission+32.77pts
Monthly Total-65.24pts
Running Total+4162.05pts
Lay Chasers Chance 30pts at 4.0-UP(+30pts)
240 Kelso-2 horse race for me and im happy to go with the value bigger price.Stagecoach Pearl is sure to run well with no negatives in its profile but I prefer the improving Tito Bustillo who is 4wins-1place-7runs between October and December.
Back Tito Bustillo 12pts at 3.9-UP(-12pts)Was meant to be a jumps race,doubt it wouldve made much difference as the 2 market leaders went off too hard early.(DT+18pts)
3.0 Sandown-General Ting is a fair enough fav but this is quite competitive and I think Cheshire Prince will run well but wont reach the price im looking for.Dreambrook Lady is a speculative choice but its 0/8 on left handed tracks and its last 5 runs have been on those,the last time it won was at Huntingdon(a right handed track).It could bounce back to form.
Back Dreambrook Lady 6.5pts at 10.0-UP(-6.5pts)Ground had gone against it but never put in the race at any stage(DT+11.5pts)
335 Sandown-There enough negatives in Graduation Nights profile to warrant taking it on here.In fields of 10 to 15 runners its 0wins-0places-10runs and class 3 races its 0wins-1place-5runs.There are plenty running for us with Time for Spring sure to go well also Bennys Mist will appreciate the R/H track and return to 3m,Imperial Circus is unexposed over fences while Old Wigmore ran its best races early last season and is 2/4 on R/H tracks.
Lay Graduation Night 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)Never going at any stage(DT+41.5pts)
205 Kelso-Lockstown is without doubt the value in this race,it ran really well on its seasonal debut baring in mind,its record fresh is very poor and it has loads of stamina around this stiff track.Knockara Beau has the ratings to outclass these but is very hit or miss.I prefer Lackamons chance to Blenheim Brook.
Back Lockstown 7pts at 8.0(Accept 5.5)-UP(-7pts)Never in it,Knockara Beau in a different class(DT+34.5pts)
Days total minus commission+32.77pts
Monthly Total-65.24pts
Running Total+4162.05pts
9th November
320 Musselburgh-Relax is great value here,ive got it at least 7Ibs clear top rated and theres lots of positives in its profile.(0-9 runners)3wins-2places-5runs,(Good ground)1win-1place-2runs,(2m4f)3wins-1place-4runs.Red Tanber has a great record here but a poor record fresh so Lockedinthepocket is probably the main danger but I fully expect Relax to win!
Back Relax 22pts at 4.0(Accept 3.0)-UP(-22pts) Just rubbish at the moment,cannot believe how poorly this ran
Back Relax 22pts at 4.0(Accept 3.0)-UP(-22pts) Just rubbish at the moment,cannot believe how poorly this ran
8th November
220 Towcester-I think Be My Light will run well here,it got a good rating on its seasonal debut and last seasons best would be good enough,jockey Kielan Woods is 2wins-2places-6runs on it.There are 2 unexposed runners in Destroyed Deployed and Tell Me Y that are difficult to assess while Sail and Return looks vulnerable having taken a big weights hike for its last win.
Back Be My Light 8pts at 7.6-4th & Lay Sail and Return 30pts at 6.0-UP(+22pts)Be My Light was well backed but never really travelled,the jockey gave it a great ride and it only beaten a length in the end.
250 Towcester-Bishophill Jack is very solid here,2wins-0places-7runs in fields of 9 or less and 2/2 in class 5 races,it must go well.Arctic Echo may be getting on a bit but there are no negatives in its profile today.Spot the Ball is 1win-1place-2runs at this specialist track and 1win-1place-3runs in November,it would be no surprise if it bounced back to form.Midnight Charmer has a bit to find for me on my ratings and is 0/6 on R/H tracks.
Lay Midnight Charmer 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)
3.0 Musselburgh-Purcells Bridge ran really well last time and is miles clear on the ratings,if it can back that performance up then it will win but its unlikely to make the 2/1 im looking for.I make Solway Bay next best.Monetary Fund has a chance but its poor strike rate means I cant see how it can be 2nd in the market.
Lay Monetary Fund 30pts at 5.0-Won(-120pts)Unfortunately Purcells Bridge ran below expectations and Solway bay was given lots to do.It looked like I was going to get away with it as Monetary Fund was headed just yards from the line but it battled back to win to continue a poor start to the month.(DT-68pts)
Monthly Total-76.01
Running Total+4151.28pts
Back Be My Light 8pts at 7.6-4th & Lay Sail and Return 30pts at 6.0-UP(+22pts)Be My Light was well backed but never really travelled,the jockey gave it a great ride and it only beaten a length in the end.
250 Towcester-Bishophill Jack is very solid here,2wins-0places-7runs in fields of 9 or less and 2/2 in class 5 races,it must go well.Arctic Echo may be getting on a bit but there are no negatives in its profile today.Spot the Ball is 1win-1place-2runs at this specialist track and 1win-1place-3runs in November,it would be no surprise if it bounced back to form.Midnight Charmer has a bit to find for me on my ratings and is 0/6 on R/H tracks.
Lay Midnight Charmer 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)
3.0 Musselburgh-Purcells Bridge ran really well last time and is miles clear on the ratings,if it can back that performance up then it will win but its unlikely to make the 2/1 im looking for.I make Solway Bay next best.Monetary Fund has a chance but its poor strike rate means I cant see how it can be 2nd in the market.
Lay Monetary Fund 30pts at 5.0-Won(-120pts)Unfortunately Purcells Bridge ran below expectations and Solway bay was given lots to do.It looked like I was going to get away with it as Monetary Fund was headed just yards from the line but it battled back to win to continue a poor start to the month.(DT-68pts)
Monthly Total-76.01
Running Total+4151.28pts
7th November
655 Kempton-Modun got stuck in the mud when a selection for the blog but back on its favoured polytrack and at a track where its 1win-2places-3runs,I expect it to run very well.Spring of Fame has the ratings to win but its best recent runs have been in Dubai.The improving Viking Storm is a danger but is short enough considering it needs to progress again.
Back Modun 10pts at 5.0(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-10pts)Nicely backed during the day and looked the winner but it came 2nd.Frustrating!!!
Back Modun 10pts at 5.0(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-10pts)Nicely backed during the day and looked the winner but it came 2nd.Frustrating!!!
6th November
350 Exeter-That`ll Do Boy has the best rating but ran poorly last time and isnt proven over the 3miles.I like the very unexposed Ballyhilty Bridge,who achieved a good rating on its chase debut last time and appeared to just run out of stamina,its dropped slightly in trip here and I can see the money coming for it.
Back Ballyhilty Bridge 9pts at 6.6-5th(-9pts)Travelled powerfully til 3 out then just couldnt go with them.Looks like its needs a further drop in trip to me.
3.0 Redcar-I feel theres enough to take Phase Shift on here.It won out of the blue last time beating our selection Arley Hall,they meet again and this 2f shorter trip looks to be in the latters favour and its more consistent anyway.Priestleys Reward should also finish in front of it and Korngold is not out of it being 1/1 in class 6 races.
Lay Phase Shift 30pts at 3.85-UP(+30pts)(DT+21pts)
Days total minus commission+19.95
Monthly Total+2.01pts
Running Total+4229.28pts
Back Ballyhilty Bridge 9pts at 6.6-5th(-9pts)Travelled powerfully til 3 out then just couldnt go with them.Looks like its needs a further drop in trip to me.
3.0 Redcar-I feel theres enough to take Phase Shift on here.It won out of the blue last time beating our selection Arley Hall,they meet again and this 2f shorter trip looks to be in the latters favour and its more consistent anyway.Priestleys Reward should also finish in front of it and Korngold is not out of it being 1/1 in class 6 races.
Lay Phase Shift 30pts at 3.85-UP(+30pts)(DT+21pts)
Days total minus commission+19.95
Monthly Total+2.01pts
Running Total+4229.28pts
5th November
225 Plumpton-Hard to imagine a weaker race than this and one in which Beware Chalk Pit should gain its 2nd career victory.Although inconsistent,its clear top rated and ran well on his seasonal reappearance plus the only time it did win,was in November,over this trip,this ground and this track.It will surely never have a better chance to add another victory.Unless Dromore Hill bounces back to form,I can only see Absolute Shambles being a threat.
Back Beware Chalk Pit 20pts at 3.0-2nd(-20pts)Winner was impossible to find and the selection ran well but couldnt reel the leader in.
330 Plumpton-Not that many that can be fancied here and Ballyman should run well.It got a good rating on its first run of the season and it should improve for it to hopefully last season best which is the top rating in the race.Mark Grant gets on well with the horse (1win-2places-4runs) and the horse has the same record at the track.Truckers Benefit is easily the biggest danger and may improve past the selection but is the right price.Goring One has a doubt on the ground.
Back Ballyman 8pts at 5.8-2nd(-8pts)If you need something to finish 2nd,im your man!!!!4 in a row.(DT-28pts)
Monthly Total-17.94pts
Running Total+4209.33pts
Back Beware Chalk Pit 20pts at 3.0-2nd(-20pts)Winner was impossible to find and the selection ran well but couldnt reel the leader in.
330 Plumpton-Not that many that can be fancied here and Ballyman should run well.It got a good rating on its first run of the season and it should improve for it to hopefully last season best which is the top rating in the race.Mark Grant gets on well with the horse (1win-2places-4runs) and the horse has the same record at the track.Truckers Benefit is easily the biggest danger and may improve past the selection but is the right price.Goring One has a doubt on the ground.
Back Ballyman 8pts at 5.8-2nd(-8pts)If you need something to finish 2nd,im your man!!!!4 in a row.(DT-28pts)
Monthly Total-17.94pts
Running Total+4209.33pts
3rd November
305 Newmarket-Decent Listed race with a few in with a chance.I feel Primevere is underpriced but dont want to lay it as it has its ideal conditions,Prince Siegfried and Mull of Killough should run ok but I like the improving 3yo Hajras,whos won 4 of its 8 races and is 2/2 in races of 9 or less.Rainbow Peak could be a big danger if fit off such a long lay off.
Back Hajras 10pts at 5.0(Accept 4.5)at Skybet or VCbet -2nd(-10pts)Hit 1.5 in running but couldnt reel in the winner
135 Ayr-Theres no doubting that there are negatives in Sammy Spidermans profile,the main one being 0/7 in November but it loves this track and in such a weak race,it shouldnt be the price it is.Sacre Toi is the short priced fav and may well win but the selection is definitely the value in the race.
Back Sammy Spiderman 8pts at 7.0(Accept 5.0)-UP(-8pts)Poor selection,the stats gave me the warning signs but it was so weak,it drew me in.The winner won its first ever race at the 26th attempt(DT-18pts)
245 Ayr-Et Maintenant ran well on its seasonal debut and should progress from there.Theres been money for The Hollingwell and I can see its chance while Heez a Steel and Beau Dandy will find these conditions tough on their first run of the season.In a weak race,I feel Et Maintenant is just enough value to warrant support under its ideal conditions.
Back Et Maintenant 11.5pts at 4.5-2nd(-11.5pts)Big drifter as the eventual winner was backed in from 16s into 7/2.Ran a great race and I thought was coming to win the race between the last 2 fences(Touched 1.37 in running) but didnt quite pick up.(DT-29.5pts)
Monthly Total+10.06pts
Running Total+4237.33pts
Back Hajras 10pts at 5.0(Accept 4.5)at Skybet or VCbet -2nd(-10pts)Hit 1.5 in running but couldnt reel in the winner
135 Ayr-Theres no doubting that there are negatives in Sammy Spidermans profile,the main one being 0/7 in November but it loves this track and in such a weak race,it shouldnt be the price it is.Sacre Toi is the short priced fav and may well win but the selection is definitely the value in the race.
Back Sammy Spiderman 8pts at 7.0(Accept 5.0)-UP(-8pts)Poor selection,the stats gave me the warning signs but it was so weak,it drew me in.The winner won its first ever race at the 26th attempt(DT-18pts)
245 Ayr-Et Maintenant ran well on its seasonal debut and should progress from there.Theres been money for The Hollingwell and I can see its chance while Heez a Steel and Beau Dandy will find these conditions tough on their first run of the season.In a weak race,I feel Et Maintenant is just enough value to warrant support under its ideal conditions.
Back Et Maintenant 11.5pts at 4.5-2nd(-11.5pts)Big drifter as the eventual winner was backed in from 16s into 7/2.Ran a great race and I thought was coming to win the race between the last 2 fences(Touched 1.37 in running) but didnt quite pick up.(DT-29.5pts)
Monthly Total+10.06pts
Running Total+4237.33pts
2nd November
130 Wetherby-Sporting Boy is a progressive hurdler and is clear top rated,as long as the ground gets no softer it should run well.
Back Sporting Boy 12pts at 3.9-Won(+34.80pts)Hurdled superb and won easily.
245 Newmarket-This looks a 2 horse race between Boonga Roogeta and Mr Spiggott,I like the former who looks to still be improving and will relish the conditions.
Back Boonga Roogeta 12.5pts at 3.85*1 Non Runner Revised 14pts at 3.5*-Won(+35pts)
745 Wolverhampton-Although it hasnt ran here,Silver Lace has proved itself on the polytrack at Kempton,its also clear top rated with a very progressive profile.I make Stylistickhill the danger.
Back Silver Lace 15pts at 3.5(1 Non runner now so if anyones not on already,I would do 18pts at 3.0) -4th(-15pts)Expected this to win but it never really looked like happening.(DT+54.80pts)
Days total minus commission+52.06pts
Monthly Total+39.56pts
Running Total+4266.83pts
Back Sporting Boy 12pts at 3.9-Won(+34.80pts)Hurdled superb and won easily.
245 Newmarket-This looks a 2 horse race between Boonga Roogeta and Mr Spiggott,I like the former who looks to still be improving and will relish the conditions.
Back Boonga Roogeta 12.5pts at 3.85*1 Non Runner Revised 14pts at 3.5*-Won(+35pts)
745 Wolverhampton-Although it hasnt ran here,Silver Lace has proved itself on the polytrack at Kempton,its also clear top rated with a very progressive profile.I make Stylistickhill the danger.
Back Silver Lace 15pts at 3.5(1 Non runner now so if anyones not on already,I would do 18pts at 3.0) -4th(-15pts)Expected this to win but it never really looked like happening.(DT+54.80pts)
Days total minus commission+52.06pts
Monthly Total+39.56pts
Running Total+4266.83pts
1st November
210 Stratford-A race lacking any strength in depth,the fact that Zen Factor is near the front of the betting says it all,a horse that is very inconsistent,no real history of going well fresh and 0wins-0places-8runs going left handed.2miles on good to soft ground is ideal for True Blue and anything close to his most recent run would be good enough.Be Definite is the main danger.
Back True Blue 12.5pts at 3.85-Fell(-12.5pts)Came down at the last when battling it out with the eventual winner,pretty unlucky considering the ground had probably got too soft as well.
Back True Blue 12.5pts at 3.85-Fell(-12.5pts)Came down at the last when battling it out with the eventual winner,pretty unlucky considering the ground had probably got too soft as well.
31st October
320 Haydock-Allanard looks very strong here but is unlikely to reach the price I would require.Ballybough Gorta is an improving chaser whilst Satou and Buffalo Bob arent out of it.Vincitore ran quite well last time but with rain likely to fall,will leave it very vulnerable.
Lay Vincitore 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)Allanard ran a poor race so the lay was the right call.
345 Lingfield-Very competitve race but one in which I feel Daliance offers a bit of value.Estedaama is fav but will need to be at its sharpest back from a break to take this while the selection put up its best rating last time and its 2 runs over 12f have produced a win and a second,ive got Enery and Fleeting Image as the main dangers.
Back Daliance 6.5pts at 10.0-4th(-6.5pts)Was given an impossible task by its jockey,still sat in last 2f out and stormed home to nearly get 3rd.(DT+23.5pts)
Days total minus commission+ 22.32pts
Monthly Total+287.82pts
Running Total+4227.27pts
Lay Vincitore 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)Allanard ran a poor race so the lay was the right call.
345 Lingfield-Very competitve race but one in which I feel Daliance offers a bit of value.Estedaama is fav but will need to be at its sharpest back from a break to take this while the selection put up its best rating last time and its 2 runs over 12f have produced a win and a second,ive got Enery and Fleeting Image as the main dangers.
Back Daliance 6.5pts at 10.0-4th(-6.5pts)Was given an impossible task by its jockey,still sat in last 2f out and stormed home to nearly get 3rd.(DT+23.5pts)
Days total minus commission+ 22.32pts
Monthly Total+287.82pts
Running Total+4227.27pts
30th October
410 Yarmouth-This is a weak race which probably revolves around Barney Curley`s horse,Summersturm.If todays is the day for him to land a punt then hes probably found the right race.However its got no decent form on softish ground and because its taking a chunk of the market,im going to go with Baan,who achieved a good rating last time under similar conditions and has won at the track.
Back Baan 9pts at 5.5(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-9pts)Beaten by a horse stepping up in trip,that hadnt ran since April!
Monthly Total+265.50pts
Running Total+4204.95pts
Back Baan 9pts at 5.5(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-9pts)Beaten by a horse stepping up in trip,that hadnt ran since April!
Monthly Total+265.50pts
Running Total+4204.95pts
29th October
3.0 Bangor-Pretty uncompetitive race where realistically I can only see 2 possible winners.Basoda`s ratings made a big leap forwards last time on its first run after a wind operation.There are negatives however,12st4 is a lot of weight to carry,its best ratings have been on good ground and although it has won left handed,again its best performances have definitely been right handed,the trainer is 0/25 with his chasers at the track also.River D`or is inconsistent and certainly no win machine but it ran well last time and is top rated.
Back River D`or 20pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75) at Ladbrokes & Paddy Power-3rd(-20pts)Couldnt see this result to be honest and when Basoda started to back off out of the race,i thought there was only 1 winner.Wouldve like to have seen the jockey kick it on 4 out when it was clearly travelling best rather than continually waiting and then get done for toe.
Back River D`or 20pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75) at Ladbrokes & Paddy Power-3rd(-20pts)Couldnt see this result to be honest and when Basoda started to back off out of the race,i thought there was only 1 winner.Wouldve like to have seen the jockey kick it on 4 out when it was clearly travelling best rather than continually waiting and then get done for toe.
28th October
120 Wincanton-Adiynara should surely be fav here,1/1 over Course and distance,its only had 4 runs and its last rating is just about top rated.Grey Missile has a slightly better rating but from 2010,there has to be a big doubt of that being reproduced after 693 days off.I would be amazed if this doesnt shorten up.
Back Adiynara 8pts at 8.0 at Bet365 & Boylesports(Accept 6.0)-UP(-8pts)Didnt shorten like I thought nor did it perform like I thought,I dont think it jumped 1 hurdle properly.
110 Aintree-Vendor is incredibly short here and may well be better than these but there is some good value to be had with Skint,it makes its debut for Charlie Longsdon today,a trainer i really like.In fields of 10 or more its 3wins-2places-5runs but after a break of 80days or more its 3/3,so you would expect it to be at its best today,That may still not be good enough but the price is far too big to ignore.
Back Skint 4pts at 17.0-UP(-4pts)Conditions turned too very soft and it looked very hard work.Skint was there just before the home turn but was legless by the finish.(DT-12pts)
Monthly Total+294.50pts
Running Total+4233.95pts
Back Adiynara 8pts at 8.0 at Bet365 & Boylesports(Accept 6.0)-UP(-8pts)Didnt shorten like I thought nor did it perform like I thought,I dont think it jumped 1 hurdle properly.
110 Aintree-Vendor is incredibly short here and may well be better than these but there is some good value to be had with Skint,it makes its debut for Charlie Longsdon today,a trainer i really like.In fields of 10 or more its 3wins-2places-5runs but after a break of 80days or more its 3/3,so you would expect it to be at its best today,That may still not be good enough but the price is far too big to ignore.
Back Skint 4pts at 17.0-UP(-4pts)Conditions turned too very soft and it looked very hard work.Skint was there just before the home turn but was legless by the finish.(DT-12pts)
Monthly Total+294.50pts
Running Total+4233.95pts
27th October
145 Stratford-Ozeta could be anything here and was always going to be fav.Fashionable Gal is pretty solid and looks sure to run its race while Silver Gypsy wants a lot further than this.
Back Fashionable Gal 9pts at 6.0-Won & Lay Silver Gypsy 30pts at 6.0-3rd(+75pts)
220 Stratford-Unusually for a horse in selling grade.Esporao is very consistent and should prove too good for these.
Back Esporao 15pts at 3.35-UP(-15pts)Fairly typically chucked in its first bad run for a while(DT+60pts)
320 Stratford-Once again a horse(Natural High) is fav based on potential rather than what its actually done,it may win but in a fairly weak race,im going to side with Trip the Light,whos both wins have come in fields of over 10 runners and both on left handed tracks.There cant be many tracks where trainer Phil Middleton has a 36% strike rate with his hurdlers.
Back Trip the Light 6pts at 8.6-2nd(-6pts)Ran really well and was matched 1.4 in running but beaten by an unconsidered winner(DT+54pts)
355 Stratford-Theres been money for Roc De Guye and that means Full ov Beans has become a value price.It has a nice progressive profile since going over fences.
Back Full ov Beans 11pts at 4.5-Fell at the last when easily going to win(matched at 1.03)(-11pts)(DT+43pts)
Days total minus commission+40.85pts
Monthly Total+306.50pts
Running Total+4245.95pts
Back Fashionable Gal 9pts at 6.0-Won & Lay Silver Gypsy 30pts at 6.0-3rd(+75pts)
220 Stratford-Unusually for a horse in selling grade.Esporao is very consistent and should prove too good for these.
Back Esporao 15pts at 3.35-UP(-15pts)Fairly typically chucked in its first bad run for a while(DT+60pts)
320 Stratford-Once again a horse(Natural High) is fav based on potential rather than what its actually done,it may win but in a fairly weak race,im going to side with Trip the Light,whos both wins have come in fields of over 10 runners and both on left handed tracks.There cant be many tracks where trainer Phil Middleton has a 36% strike rate with his hurdlers.
Back Trip the Light 6pts at 8.6-2nd(-6pts)Ran really well and was matched 1.4 in running but beaten by an unconsidered winner(DT+54pts)
355 Stratford-Theres been money for Roc De Guye and that means Full ov Beans has become a value price.It has a nice progressive profile since going over fences.
Back Full ov Beans 11pts at 4.5-Fell at the last when easily going to win(matched at 1.03)(-11pts)(DT+43pts)
Days total minus commission+40.85pts
Monthly Total+306.50pts
Running Total+4245.95pts
26th October
235 Newcastle-Bob Will ran well last time but is a very inconsistent performer and a record of 1/24 speaks for itself.Im going to take it on with Coppers Gold,who goes well at the track,is 2wins-4places-9runs on good to soft,in fields of 0-9 runners its 2wins-4places-10runs and definitely has gained its best ratings after a break,41days or more 3wins-3places-11runs as opposed to 40 days or less 0wins-2places-11runs.
Back Coppers Gold 12pts at 5.0 at Bet365(Accept 4.0)-UP(-12pts)Really poor run and made worse that Bobs Will won the race
640 Wolverhampton-Fairly typical competitve AW race but one in which I think Kazbow is overpriced.It achieved the top rating last time and is very well handicapped having dropped 15Ibs in its last 5 runs.It can now drop back into a class 5 for the first time in 2 years.In this class its last 6 runs have yielded 2wins and 4 2nd places.I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.
Back Kazbow 6pts at 13.0 at Paddy Power(Accept 10.0)-UP(-6pts)Halved in price,so got that bit right but no good although it looked lame at the finish.(DT-18pts)
305 Fakenham-Laudatory is a strong traveller that often flatters to decieve.Im Happy to lay it in running.
Lay Laudatory 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)(DT+12pts)
710 Wolverhampton-Welsh Bard has been well supported and that has to be respected but it looks very short now.Wayne Manor is very solid and should run well but the fact that Ryan Moore travels on from Doncaster to get here on time to ride Saint Helena may be significant.Ive got it top rated but over a shorter trip,however its only ran once over tonights distance.Looks the value to me.
Back Saint Helena 6pts at 9.0-UP(-6pts)(DT+6pts)Rubbish tipping!
Days total minus commission+5.7pts
Monthly Total+265.65pts
Running Total+4205.10pts
Back Coppers Gold 12pts at 5.0 at Bet365(Accept 4.0)-UP(-12pts)Really poor run and made worse that Bobs Will won the race
640 Wolverhampton-Fairly typical competitve AW race but one in which I think Kazbow is overpriced.It achieved the top rating last time and is very well handicapped having dropped 15Ibs in its last 5 runs.It can now drop back into a class 5 for the first time in 2 years.In this class its last 6 runs have yielded 2wins and 4 2nd places.I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.
Back Kazbow 6pts at 13.0 at Paddy Power(Accept 10.0)-UP(-6pts)Halved in price,so got that bit right but no good although it looked lame at the finish.(DT-18pts)
305 Fakenham-Laudatory is a strong traveller that often flatters to decieve.Im Happy to lay it in running.
Lay Laudatory 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)(DT+12pts)
710 Wolverhampton-Welsh Bard has been well supported and that has to be respected but it looks very short now.Wayne Manor is very solid and should run well but the fact that Ryan Moore travels on from Doncaster to get here on time to ride Saint Helena may be significant.Ive got it top rated but over a shorter trip,however its only ran once over tonights distance.Looks the value to me.
Back Saint Helena 6pts at 9.0-UP(-6pts)(DT+6pts)Rubbish tipping!
Days total minus commission+5.7pts
Monthly Total+265.65pts
Running Total+4205.10pts
25th October
430 Carlisle-Ahyaknowyerself should run well,it achieved the top rating last time over trip and ground.Pas Trop Tard is the main danger for me although Ballyclough is very unexposed.
Back Ahyaknowyerself 13pts at 3.65-Won(1 Non Runner +31pts)
Days total minus commission+29.45pts
Monthly Total+259.95pts
Running Total+4199.40pts
Back Ahyaknowyerself 13pts at 3.65-Won(1 Non Runner +31pts)
Days total minus commission+29.45pts
Monthly Total+259.95pts
Running Total+4199.40pts
24th October
210 Worcester-Competitive race in which I like Golden Chieftain,Current Event,Double Ross and Bennys Mist.George Nympton has a bit to find on my ratings.
Lay George Nympton 30pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
315 Worcester-Pretty dire race where I can only realistically see 2 possible winners.I hoped to get matched on the consistent Heezagrey last night but the price has moved in(Anything around 5.8 would be value),its sure to be right there but Magical Treasure has got the best rating from last season and has run quite well after a break before.
Back Magical Treasure 9pts at 6.6-5th(-9pts)Never really looked like winning
325 Fontwell-There are a couple of negatives in Its Like That`s profile but its just too big a price to ignore.Ran well last time after a break behind a subsequent winner.Venetian Lad goes well at the track but is short enough while River D`or has 1 rating from last year which wins this easily but theres a lot of doubt about it being reproduced.
Back Its Like That 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.0)-5th(-7pts)Ran a good race and looked a big danger coming into the straight but weakened very badly late on.(DT-16pts)
Lay George Nympton 30pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
315 Worcester-Pretty dire race where I can only realistically see 2 possible winners.I hoped to get matched on the consistent Heezagrey last night but the price has moved in(Anything around 5.8 would be value),its sure to be right there but Magical Treasure has got the best rating from last season and has run quite well after a break before.
Back Magical Treasure 9pts at 6.6-5th(-9pts)Never really looked like winning
325 Fontwell-There are a couple of negatives in Its Like That`s profile but its just too big a price to ignore.Ran well last time after a break behind a subsequent winner.Venetian Lad goes well at the track but is short enough while River D`or has 1 rating from last year which wins this easily but theres a lot of doubt about it being reproduced.
Back Its Like That 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.0)-5th(-7pts)Ran a good race and looked a big danger coming into the straight but weakened very badly late on.(DT-16pts)
22nd October
230 Windsor-Quite a difficult race to solve but I believe Toby Tyler is overpriced,Its ratings are right near the top but it seems more likely than most to reproduce them with a 2/5 record in October,2wins-1place-5runs on heavy ground and 6 wins over todays trip.Likely fav Blue Jack takes a drop in class but may not like the ground and is 0w-3p-15r over 6f.I feel Fathsta is the main danger with a solid 3w-1p-7r in this class.
Back Toby Tyler 7pts at 9.0-5th(-7pts)Backed into as low as 4.5 but never really looked like getting involved.Never closer than at the finish.
Back Toby Tyler 7pts at 9.0-5th(-7pts)Backed into as low as 4.5 but never really looked like getting involved.Never closer than at the finish.
20th October
145 Ascot-Opinion Poll is top rated and i like its chance after a break.2wins-2places-6runs after 80days or more,2wins-3places-5runs in Group 3 races.2w-1p-3r on soft/heavy ground,5w-2p-8r over 2miles and 1w-3p-5r at the course,it looks certain to go well.The ground looks certain to go against Colour Vision and Saddlers Rock.Aiken could be the possible danger stepping up in trip.
Back Opinion Poll 12pts at 4.3-UP(-12pts)Moved in and looked dangerous(matched at 2.2)but quickly stopped and was almost pulled up
305 Cheltenham-Quite possible that Dodging Bullets is in a different league but Hi Note is right there ratings wise and still improving.Its trainer is 4wins-2places with her last 8 runners.Its the value call in this race.
Back Hi Note 15pts at 5.0(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-15pts)Ran well maybe shouldve laid Baby Mix as didnt fancy that at all.(DT-27pts)
820 Wolverhampton-Quite competitve for a claimer with Red Cape,Wheres Reilly,Select Committee and Powerful Wind all holding chances while I feel Julius Geezer is vulnerable,looks like 6f is more its trip these days and its record from August to the end of the year is 0w-1p-9r.
Lay Julius Geezer 30pts at 5.6*2 non runners Revised* Lay 30pts at 4.1-UP(+30pts)(DT+3pts)
4.0 Catterick-I like Arley Halls chance here,only ran in class 6 races twice,resulting in a win and a 2nd.Clear top rated.
Back Arley Hall 20pts at 3.75-2nd(-20pts)Beaten by an outsider,very disappointed it wasnt good enough to win this.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total+253.50pts
Running Total+4192.95pts
Back Opinion Poll 12pts at 4.3-UP(-12pts)Moved in and looked dangerous(matched at 2.2)but quickly stopped and was almost pulled up
305 Cheltenham-Quite possible that Dodging Bullets is in a different league but Hi Note is right there ratings wise and still improving.Its trainer is 4wins-2places with her last 8 runners.Its the value call in this race.
Back Hi Note 15pts at 5.0(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-15pts)Ran well maybe shouldve laid Baby Mix as didnt fancy that at all.(DT-27pts)
820 Wolverhampton-Quite competitve for a claimer with Red Cape,Wheres Reilly,Select Committee and Powerful Wind all holding chances while I feel Julius Geezer is vulnerable,looks like 6f is more its trip these days and its record from August to the end of the year is 0w-1p-9r.
Lay Julius Geezer 30pts at 5.6*2 non runners Revised* Lay 30pts at 4.1-UP(+30pts)(DT+3pts)
4.0 Catterick-I like Arley Halls chance here,only ran in class 6 races twice,resulting in a win and a 2nd.Clear top rated.
Back Arley Hall 20pts at 3.75-2nd(-20pts)Beaten by an outsider,very disappointed it wasnt good enough to win this.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total+253.50pts
Running Total+4192.95pts
19th October
1230 Fakenham-This is a decent little race for this track and although I have a little niggling doubt that SentimentalJourney may not travel that well around this really sharp track,on pure ratings it has to be backed.Alpine Breeze is definitely the danger.
Back SentimentalJourney 15pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.85)-UP(-15pts)Unfortunately my doubt proved correct and Alpine Breeze a really unlucky last fence faller.
Back SentimentalJourney 15pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.85)-UP(-15pts)Unfortunately my doubt proved correct and Alpine Breeze a really unlucky last fence faller.
18th October
310 Uttoxeter-Weak race,Notabotheronme has a decent chance but has a couple of negatives and is the right price.Salut Honore has a lot more little negatives mainly,October to December is 0/6,When carrying over 11st 0wins-1place-7runs and 0/3 after a break of 80 days or more.Ban Uisce looks like it doesnt get 3m but it actually has not tried it much and in its first start for a new trainer,may be up to it.Its has some positives in its profile,Racing after 41 days or more 2wins-2places-9runs,Heavy ground 2wins-1place-7runs and its sire has a 14% strike rate over this distance.
Back Ban Uisce 8pts 7.6(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-8pts)Ran a good race
440 Uttoxeter-Swift Arrow and Lukeys Luck looks very solid here while Bay Central is 0/7 after a break of 41 days or more and certainly wants better ground.
Lay Bay Central 30pts at 5.5-UP(Wasnt matched)
420 Wincanton-Ivors King stands out here and its last rating puts it nicely clear.
Back Ivors King 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)(DT+32pts)
Days total minus commission+30.40pts
Monthly Total+285.50pts
Running Total+4219.95pts
Back Ban Uisce 8pts 7.6(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-8pts)Ran a good race
440 Uttoxeter-Swift Arrow and Lukeys Luck looks very solid here while Bay Central is 0/7 after a break of 41 days or more and certainly wants better ground.
Lay Bay Central 30pts at 5.5-UP(Wasnt matched)
420 Wincanton-Ivors King stands out here and its last rating puts it nicely clear.
Back Ivors King 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)(DT+32pts)
Days total minus commission+30.40pts
Monthly Total+285.50pts
Running Total+4219.95pts
17th October
250 Wetherby-This is wide open,Tara Royal is just top rated but has no history of running to its mark fresh.Im going for at a much bigger price.Leldorado,who is 1/3 in October,after a break of 80 days or more its 2wins-0places-4runs,On softish ground its 2wins-1place-7runs and over 2miles 3wins-0places-9runs.
Back Leldorado 5pts at 15.0-4th(-5pts)Backed into 6.0 but didnt jump very well
520 Nottingham-Having a Good Time looks very vulnerable here because of the soft ground and I tried to lay this last night but not surprisingly,its on the drift.I like Mr Mo Jo,who is top rated with a nice progressive profile.
Back Mr Mo Jo 6pts at 9.0*7pts at 8.0 after non runners*-UP(-7pts)Horse stumbled and nearly went over as the stalls opened,didnt ran great but I doubt that helped.(DT-12pts)
Back Leldorado 5pts at 15.0-4th(-5pts)Backed into 6.0 but didnt jump very well
520 Nottingham-Having a Good Time looks very vulnerable here because of the soft ground and I tried to lay this last night but not surprisingly,its on the drift.I like Mr Mo Jo,who is top rated with a nice progressive profile.
Back Mr Mo Jo 6pts at 9.0*7pts at 8.0 after non runners*-UP(-7pts)Horse stumbled and nearly went over as the stalls opened,didnt ran great but I doubt that helped.(DT-12pts)
16th October
240 Leicester-Tunnager Grove stands out here and im a little surprised to have got my price matched overnight.Ive got it nearly a stone clear on my ratings.Trip and ground are fine.
Back Tunnager Grove 25pts at 3.0-Won(+50pts)
Days total minus commission+47.50pts
Monthly Total+267.10pts
Running Total+4191.55pts
Back Tunnager Grove 25pts at 3.0-Won(+50pts)
Days total minus commission+47.50pts
Monthly Total+267.10pts
Running Total+4191.55pts
15th October
450 Musselburgh-Very competitive race and the last time out winner for the blog,I`ll be Good should go well but is possibly a little shorter than ive got it.Im going to take a chance on Igoyougo,who has run well fresh before,is a CD winner,in fields of 10 to 15 runners its 3wins-1place-10runs and is 2/7 on good to soft ground.If it is fit,its a massive price.
Back Igoyougo 5pts at 25(Accept 17.0)-Non Runner
440 Windsor-Surprised to see Cyril the Squirrel near the front of the market,no form at all on heavy ground and a below par run last time.Lutine Charlie is the solid horse in the race while Ever Fortune could be much better than these ,having only had 2 starts.
Lay Cyril the Squirrel 30pts at 3.75-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+219.60pts
Running total+4144.05pts
Back Igoyougo 5pts at 25(Accept 17.0)-Non Runner
440 Windsor-Surprised to see Cyril the Squirrel near the front of the market,no form at all on heavy ground and a below par run last time.Lutine Charlie is the solid horse in the race while Ever Fortune could be much better than these ,having only had 2 starts.
Lay Cyril the Squirrel 30pts at 3.75-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+219.60pts
Running total+4144.05pts
13th October
320 Hexham-Eyre Apparent is just top rated but has some negatives in its profile of 0wins-2places-11runs when carrying over 11st 8Ibs and after a break of 41 days or more its 0wins-0places-7runs.It may still win but at 2/1 im happy to look elsewhere.Tipsy Dara is close behind on ratings but is fav on my tissue thanks to a very positive profile,Lucy Alexander is 2w-1p-5r on it,after a break of 41 days or more its 2w-0p-4r,on heavy ground its 2w-1p-4r and its a CD winner.I expect Saddle Pack to need the run also.
Back Tipsy Dara 12pts at 5.5(Accept 4.0)-Won(+54pts)Every winner is nice but when they get backed into the price you have on your own tissue then its even more rewarding!
515 Newmarket-On jockey bookings for Godolphin,Quick Wit is not the first choice,Dettori is on the pretty solid French Navy and Barzalona is on the very difficult to assess Mandaean but on my ratings Quick Wit has a decent chance,its also 2w-1p-4r in October and 4w-3p-13r in fields of 10 to 15 runners.Stipulate and Bronze Angel look dangers.
Back Quick Wit 7pts at 10.0 with Paddy Power-UP(-7pts)Ran poorly but it had became evident during the day that the near rail was the place to be at Newmarket so being drawn on the other side was a big negative.(DT+47pts)
715 Wolverhampton-Goal looks a decent price here after returning to form last time,it is inconsistent so whether it reproduces it is unknown but it goes well at the track and is 3w-3p-13r in class 6 races.Kathleensluckylad and Neige D`antan are the obvious dangers.
Back Goal 8pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Ran a good race,jockey gave it every chance(DT+39pts)
Days total minus commission+37.05pts
Monthly Total+191.10pts
Running Total+4115.55pts
Back Tipsy Dara 12pts at 5.5(Accept 4.0)-Won(+54pts)Every winner is nice but when they get backed into the price you have on your own tissue then its even more rewarding!
515 Newmarket-On jockey bookings for Godolphin,Quick Wit is not the first choice,Dettori is on the pretty solid French Navy and Barzalona is on the very difficult to assess Mandaean but on my ratings Quick Wit has a decent chance,its also 2w-1p-4r in October and 4w-3p-13r in fields of 10 to 15 runners.Stipulate and Bronze Angel look dangers.
Back Quick Wit 7pts at 10.0 with Paddy Power-UP(-7pts)Ran poorly but it had became evident during the day that the near rail was the place to be at Newmarket so being drawn on the other side was a big negative.(DT+47pts)
715 Wolverhampton-Goal looks a decent price here after returning to form last time,it is inconsistent so whether it reproduces it is unknown but it goes well at the track and is 3w-3p-13r in class 6 races.Kathleensluckylad and Neige D`antan are the obvious dangers.
Back Goal 8pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Ran a good race,jockey gave it every chance(DT+39pts)
Days total minus commission+37.05pts
Monthly Total+191.10pts
Running Total+4115.55pts
12th October
230 York-Beaten Up looks fav because of last seasons form,certainly not this seasons ratings,added to that it has no form on soft.Prince Siegfried,Mijhaar have chances but the one with the most upside is Model Pupil,who hasnt been since May but has won after a break and looked very progressive.
Back Model Pupil 10pts at 4.5(Non Runner) & Lay Beaten Up 30pts at 4.5-3rd(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+154.50pts
Running Total+4078.50pts
Back Model Pupil 10pts at 4.5(Non Runner) & Lay Beaten Up 30pts at 4.5-3rd(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+154.50pts
Running Total+4078.50pts
11th October
320 Exeter-Tim the Chair is the early fav but I feel its vulnerable as it has a poor record first time out.The Racing Post put up Chasers Chance but its record when returning after a break of 29 days or more is 0wins-1place-16runs,it has to improve anyway.Its Like That achieves its best ratings in the spring so,Ammunition gets the vote,top rated with a decent record at the course of 2wins-5places-10runs and 2wins-2places-4runs in October,it has also run some very good races fresh.I would not be surprised if this ended up as a fav.
Back Ammunition 20pts at 3.5 at Paddy Power(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-20pts)Called the market correct but not the result unfortunately
*Taking longer than expected to get this blog rolling as a subscription service.Elite Betting(or Gambling system reviews as they are about to change to) are having problems with clickbank ,who allow the payments through the site apparently,so it may be a free service for a while yet.*
Back Ammunition 20pts at 3.5 at Paddy Power(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-20pts)Called the market correct but not the result unfortunately
*Taking longer than expected to get this blog rolling as a subscription service.Elite Betting(or Gambling system reviews as they are about to change to) are having problems with clickbank ,who allow the payments through the site apparently,so it may be a free service for a while yet.*
9th October
310 Leicester-Only 2 horses have won in this race and John Gosden dropping Arctic Galaxy into a seller will hopefully take a chunk out of the market as I like Priestleys Reward,who not surprisingly in this grade is inconsistent but gained its best rating on soft ground and around this trip.
Back Priestleys Reward 12pts at 4.3-4th(-12pts)Looked a big danger 2f out but just plugged on.
530 Wolverhampton-Danas Present is the obvious fav but is very short as it may be a little better at Kempton.Source of Light has been running quite solid ratings and from a pure value perspective,is a big price.
Back Source of light 5pts at 16.0-5th(-5pts)(DT-17pts)
7.0 Wolverhampton-Wasnt expecting to get matched on Moderator but its form took a giant leap forwards last time and it achieved a rating far superior to its rivals.Slight step up in trip and a different surface to contend with but anything close to the last run should be good enough.
Back Moderator 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)Beaten by a 40/1 outsider(-34.5pts)
Monthly Total+145.55pts
Running Total+4070.00pts
Back Priestleys Reward 12pts at 4.3-4th(-12pts)Looked a big danger 2f out but just plugged on.
530 Wolverhampton-Danas Present is the obvious fav but is very short as it may be a little better at Kempton.Source of Light has been running quite solid ratings and from a pure value perspective,is a big price.
Back Source of light 5pts at 16.0-5th(-5pts)(DT-17pts)
7.0 Wolverhampton-Wasnt expecting to get matched on Moderator but its form took a giant leap forwards last time and it achieved a rating far superior to its rivals.Slight step up in trip and a different surface to contend with but anything close to the last run should be good enough.
Back Moderator 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)Beaten by a 40/1 outsider(-34.5pts)
Monthly Total+145.55pts
Running Total+4070.00pts
7th October
405 Kelso-Lively Baron is quite solid here,Top Rated,it has run well fresh before,has a nice record of 3wins-1place-5runs in October & November while Jason Maguire is 4wins-1place-7runs on it.Bocciani should go well but has to prove 3m is what it wants.
Back Lively Baron 13pts at 6.0-Won(+65pts)I knew it was a big price but not sure even I expected an SP of 13/8
550 Huntingdon-Weak race.On Alert is fav probably by process of elimination and it has progression in its ratings.However it is very short.At a much bigger price,Moon Melody has some negatives in its profile but O`Regan is the perfect jockey booking for this horse.It has the ratings to win this if he can get a tune out of it.
Back Moon Melody 7pts at 9.0-Non Runner
Days total minus commission+61.75pts
Monthly Total+180.05pts
Running Total+4104.50pts
Back Lively Baron 13pts at 6.0-Won(+65pts)I knew it was a big price but not sure even I expected an SP of 13/8
550 Huntingdon-Weak race.On Alert is fav probably by process of elimination and it has progression in its ratings.However it is very short.At a much bigger price,Moon Melody has some negatives in its profile but O`Regan is the perfect jockey booking for this horse.It has the ratings to win this if he can get a tune out of it.
Back Moon Melody 7pts at 9.0-Non Runner
Days total minus commission+61.75pts
Monthly Total+180.05pts
Running Total+4104.50pts
6th October
310 Redcar-Although carrying a penalty,Fullbright looks solid here.Very consistent,2/3 on soft and 2wins-1place-4runs at Listed level.The Inconsistent Eton Forever has 1 rating that would prove difficult to beat but whether it reproduces it is open to question.
Back Fullbright 12pts at 4.3*Revised due to NR 12pts at 4.0*-UP(-12pts)
555 Redcar-El Mcglynn is the obvious starting point and should run well but at a much bigger price,I like I`ll be Good who burst into form last Autumn on soft ground and has been running over further than its best rating.
Back I`ll be Good 7pts at 9.0*Revised due to NR 8pts at 7.6*-Won(+52.5pts)(DT+40.5pts)
850 Wolverhampton-Glass Mountain looks interesting here for a stable that likes to have a punt,2/3 in October,it got a decent rating last time over 7f(staying on) and back over a trip its won at,I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.Fame Again and Justbookie dot com are the obvious dangers.
Back Glass Mountain 8pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-3rd(-8pts)(DT+32.5pts)
Days total minus commission+30.88pts
Monthly Total+118.30pts
Running Total+4043.75pts
Back Fullbright 12pts at 4.3*Revised due to NR 12pts at 4.0*-UP(-12pts)
555 Redcar-El Mcglynn is the obvious starting point and should run well but at a much bigger price,I like I`ll be Good who burst into form last Autumn on soft ground and has been running over further than its best rating.
Back I`ll be Good 7pts at 9.0*Revised due to NR 8pts at 7.6*-Won(+52.5pts)(DT+40.5pts)
850 Wolverhampton-Glass Mountain looks interesting here for a stable that likes to have a punt,2/3 in October,it got a decent rating last time over 7f(staying on) and back over a trip its won at,I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.Fame Again and Justbookie dot com are the obvious dangers.
Back Glass Mountain 8pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-3rd(-8pts)(DT+32.5pts)
Days total minus commission+30.88pts
Monthly Total+118.30pts
Running Total+4043.75pts
5th October
5.0 Fontwell-This looks a 2 horse race between Double Chocolate and Nudge and Nurdle.Both have similar ratings but the sheer consistency of Double Chocolate appeals more.Its also 3wins-3places-9runs in fields of 9 or less,2wins-1place-4runs on good to soft and its 2/3 at Fontwell and over 3m2f.Nudge and Nurdle may just be best after a bigger break than it gets today.
Back Double Chocolate 13.5pts at 3.65*1 NR now so revised to 17.5pts at 3.0*-Won(+35pts)
555 Hexham-As weak a race as you can find and a great opportunity for Whiskey Galore to finally get its head in front.Its clear on my ratings and will handle the ground.
Back Whiskey Galore 20pts at 3.0-2nd(-20pts)Not my finest hour putting this longstanding maiden up as a selection ,regardless of ratings.(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Monthly Total+87.42pts
Running Total+4012.87pts
Back Double Chocolate 13.5pts at 3.65*1 NR now so revised to 17.5pts at 3.0*-Won(+35pts)
555 Hexham-As weak a race as you can find and a great opportunity for Whiskey Galore to finally get its head in front.Its clear on my ratings and will handle the ground.
Back Whiskey Galore 20pts at 3.0-2nd(-20pts)Not my finest hour putting this longstanding maiden up as a selection ,regardless of ratings.(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Monthly Total+87.42pts
Running Total+4012.87pts
4th October
350 Bangor-Lots with chances,Henry San achieved a good rating last time on its debut over fences and should improve,Humbel Ben is top rated and 1/1 at Bangor.Silver Roque has been well supported overnight and Benefique although with a bit to find on ratings is 2wins-1place-4runs when returning after a break of 80 days or more.Carleton Place likes fast ground but there are already soft patches added to the forecast rain means its very vulnerable.
Lay Carleton Place 30pts at 6.0=UP(+30pts)
840 Wolverhampton-Incendo incredibly drops 4 grades into this class 6(actually ran in a group race 2 runs back) and looks the one to beat.Just Lille is a real force in this grade and is the obvious danger.
Back Incendo 25pts at 3.0-Won(Easy winner but didnt get matched unfortunately)
Days total minus commission+28.5pts
Monthly Total+73.17pts
Running Total+3998.62pts
Lay Carleton Place 30pts at 6.0=UP(+30pts)
840 Wolverhampton-Incendo incredibly drops 4 grades into this class 6(actually ran in a group race 2 runs back) and looks the one to beat.Just Lille is a real force in this grade and is the obvious danger.
Back Incendo 25pts at 3.0-Won(Easy winner but didnt get matched unfortunately)
Days total minus commission+28.5pts
Monthly Total+73.17pts
Running Total+3998.62pts
3rd October
3.0 Salisbury-No Compromise and Cufflink head the market but both look vulnerable to me.Cufflink isnt proven over the trip and doesnt have a decent topspeed figure to its name while No Compromise has a rating 3 runs back that would make it difficult to beat but hasnt reproduced it so there could be a turn up.Emerald Invader produced a decent rating last time over trip and ground and has had only 5 runs,so there could be more to come.
Back Emerald Invader 10pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-UP(-10pts)Travelled well but found nothing.
345 Newcastle-Mango Music is inconsistent but also unexposed over 7f,its record of 6wins-1place-14runs in class 5 races also looks solid.See Clearly is the main danger.
Back Mango Music 8.5pts at 5.8-UP(-8.5pts)Similar to above(DT-18.5pts)
Monthly Total+44.67pts
Running Total+3970.12pts
Back Emerald Invader 10pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-UP(-10pts)Travelled well but found nothing.
345 Newcastle-Mango Music is inconsistent but also unexposed over 7f,its record of 6wins-1place-14runs in class 5 races also looks solid.See Clearly is the main danger.
Back Mango Music 8.5pts at 5.8-UP(-8.5pts)Similar to above(DT-18.5pts)
Monthly Total+44.67pts
Running Total+3970.12pts
2nd October
320 Sedgefield-Quite a tight little race where Tregaro,The Fox`s Decree and Earl Grez hold the best chance.Bit surprised to see Sparkling Tara close to the front of the market,its 8lbs behind the mentioned on my ratings and when carrying over 11st8 is 0wins-1place-9runs.
Lay Sparkling Tara 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)
330 Wolverhampton-Was orginally going to lay Solar Deity as it has a bit to find on my ratings but its ran well after a break before and Marco Bottis yard dont mind a punt,so im a little wary of it.Instead im going for Fast Finian,whos proven on the surface and very progressive.
Back Fast Finian 8.5pts at 5.7*Revised after non runner now 11.5pts at 4.5)*-2nd(-11.5pts)Ran well and touched 1.8 in running(+18.5pts)
440 Ayr-Ive got this between Muffin Mcleay and Calaf.With Muffin the right price,Calaf is the value call.
Back Calaf 12pts at 4.3-Won(1 Non runner +33pts)(DT+51.5pts)
Days total minus commission+48.92pts
Monthly Total+63.17pts
Running Total+3988.62pts
Lay Sparkling Tara 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)
330 Wolverhampton-Was orginally going to lay Solar Deity as it has a bit to find on my ratings but its ran well after a break before and Marco Bottis yard dont mind a punt,so im a little wary of it.Instead im going for Fast Finian,whos proven on the surface and very progressive.
Back Fast Finian 8.5pts at 5.7*Revised after non runner now 11.5pts at 4.5)*-2nd(-11.5pts)Ran well and touched 1.8 in running(+18.5pts)
440 Ayr-Ive got this between Muffin Mcleay and Calaf.With Muffin the right price,Calaf is the value call.
Back Calaf 12pts at 4.3-Won(1 Non runner +33pts)(DT+51.5pts)
Days total minus commission+48.92pts
Monthly Total+63.17pts
Running Total+3988.62pts
1st October
330 Newton Abbot-The soft ground is a slight negative for Gud Day but it looks to hold a good chance otherwise.Very few horses in the race are proven on the ground either apart from handicap debutant Regal One,who is probably my main danger.
Back Gud Day 15pts at 3.35-3rd(-15pts)Ran an odd race,losing its place before staying on again.
430 Newton Abbot-Absolute Shambles is pretty solid here while Backfromthecongo although inconsistent is not without a chance plus the difficult to assess Thirtytwo Red had been very supported this morning.Civil Servant is 0wins-1place-6runs on soft and 0wins-1place-12runs when returning after 40days or more.
Lay Civil Servant 30pts at 4.5-UP(+30pts)(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Running Total+3939.70pts
Back Gud Day 15pts at 3.35-3rd(-15pts)Ran an odd race,losing its place before staying on again.
430 Newton Abbot-Absolute Shambles is pretty solid here while Backfromthecongo although inconsistent is not without a chance plus the difficult to assess Thirtytwo Red had been very supported this morning.Civil Servant is 0wins-1place-6runs on soft and 0wins-1place-12runs when returning after 40days or more.
Lay Civil Servant 30pts at 4.5-UP(+30pts)(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Running Total+3939.70pts
29th September
425 Haydock-I can see Suraj`s chance but it looks very short to me,it makes the market for the improving 3yo Lady Kashaan,who has produced a series of consistent ratings and should be fine on the ground.
Back Lady Kashaan 8pts at 7.0(accept 6.6)-Won(+48pts)
550 Wolverhampton-Lost Sovereign drops from a class 3 to a class 6 and despite a wide draw,has to go well.Fanrouge is the only real danger on my ratings.
Back Lost Sovereign 12pts at 4.3-Won(+39.6pts)
350 Haydock-Fiercely competitive race and Oojooba looks a very short price to me,certainly has a chance but I prefer Bedazzled whos sires offspring have handled plenty of cut.Cape Safari should also go well.
Lay Oojooba 30pts at 4.5-UP(+30pts)(DT+117.6pts)
Days total minus commission+111.72pts
Monthly Total+207.05pts
Running Total+3925.45pts
Back Lady Kashaan 8pts at 7.0(accept 6.6)-Won(+48pts)
550 Wolverhampton-Lost Sovereign drops from a class 3 to a class 6 and despite a wide draw,has to go well.Fanrouge is the only real danger on my ratings.
Back Lost Sovereign 12pts at 4.3-Won(+39.6pts)
350 Haydock-Fiercely competitive race and Oojooba looks a very short price to me,certainly has a chance but I prefer Bedazzled whos sires offspring have handled plenty of cut.Cape Safari should also go well.
Lay Oojooba 30pts at 4.5-UP(+30pts)(DT+117.6pts)
Days total minus commission+111.72pts
Monthly Total+207.05pts
Running Total+3925.45pts
28th September
445 Haydock-Extraterrestial is top rated on its last run and should go well if in the same form.Barren Brook is definitely better at 10f than a mile where its 0wins-1place-10runs and after a break of 28 days or more its 0wins-1place-9runs.*Revised due to non runner*
Back Extraterrestial 11pts at 4.7 and Lay Barren Brook 30pts at 5.5-Both UP(+19pts)Below par run from Extraterrestial
145 Newmarket-Top rated,progressive and with conditions all in its favour,Thistle Bird must go close.
Back Thistle Bird 12pts at 4.5-2nd(-12pts)Beaten a neck,hitting the crossbar a lot at the moment
220 Newmarket-Very competitve race and ive got Fanunalter,Premier Loco,Side Glance,Tazahum,Sovereign Debt,Tazahum and Trumpet Major all rated just in front of Most Improved,who really shouldnt be fav on my ratings.
Lay Most Improved 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)(DT+37pts)
Days total minus commission+35.15pts
Monthly Total+95.33pts
Running Total+3813.73pts
Back Extraterrestial 11pts at 4.7 and Lay Barren Brook 30pts at 5.5-Both UP(+19pts)Below par run from Extraterrestial
145 Newmarket-Top rated,progressive and with conditions all in its favour,Thistle Bird must go close.
Back Thistle Bird 12pts at 4.5-2nd(-12pts)Beaten a neck,hitting the crossbar a lot at the moment
220 Newmarket-Very competitve race and ive got Fanunalter,Premier Loco,Side Glance,Tazahum,Sovereign Debt,Tazahum and Trumpet Major all rated just in front of Most Improved,who really shouldnt be fav on my ratings.
Lay Most Improved 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)(DT+37pts)
Days total minus commission+35.15pts
Monthly Total+95.33pts
Running Total+3813.73pts
27th September
430 Perth-Competitve race but one in which I feel that Mighty Whitey looks good value.The horse is a little inconsistent but its top rated on its last run and in races of 10 to 15 runners its 2wins-0places-3runs,On good ground its 2wins-0places-5runs and over 2m its 2wins-1place-5runs.Toshi is fav,probably because of its decent course form but from September til the end of the year its record of 0wins-1place-13runs is enough to put me off.
Back Mighty Whitey 10pts at 9.0-3rd(-10pts)Ran well and traded at 2.0 in running
915 Wolverhampton-Azrag should go well and is a decent fav while Youm Jamil ran very well last time and the unexposed Suedehead could be better than these.Annelko has it to prove on my ratings.
Lay Annelko 30pts at 6.0-2nd(+30pts)(DT+20pts)
Days total minus commission+19pts
Monthly Total+60.18pts
Running Total+3778.58pts
Back Mighty Whitey 10pts at 9.0-3rd(-10pts)Ran well and traded at 2.0 in running
915 Wolverhampton-Azrag should go well and is a decent fav while Youm Jamil ran very well last time and the unexposed Suedehead could be better than these.Annelko has it to prove on my ratings.
Lay Annelko 30pts at 6.0-2nd(+30pts)(DT+20pts)
Days total minus commission+19pts
Monthly Total+60.18pts
Running Total+3778.58pts
26th September
245 Perth-Forty Thirty is the obvious choice but ive got it and Esporao much closer in the betting than it is currently.Esporao is an impressive 2wins-2places-4runs in fields of 0-9 runners,3wins-1place-6runs on good to firm ground and 1win-1place-2runs at the track.
Back Esporao 9.5pts at 5.5-Won(Forty Thirty non runner +12pts)Cruised home but it had nothing left to beat on my ratings after the N/R.Just over evens was amazing value.
Days total minus commission+11.4pts
Monthly Total+41.18pts
Running Total+3759.58pts
Back Esporao 9.5pts at 5.5-Won(Forty Thirty non runner +12pts)Cruised home but it had nothing left to beat on my ratings after the N/R.Just over evens was amazing value.
Days total minus commission+11.4pts
Monthly Total+41.18pts
Running Total+3759.58pts
25th September
330 Folkestone-More rain expected which could make the going quite testing,this would suit Myboyalfie.Its encountered 7f on soft ground twice and won them both also 2wins-0places-3runs in fields of 9 or less and Ian Mongan is 2wins-1place-4runs on it.Centrifugal is an improving type and if it handles the soft ground will be a tough opponent.The presence of Richard Hughes on North Star Boy means its a much shorter price than it should be.
Back MyBoyAlfie 8pts at 7.4-2nd(-8pts) & Lay North Star Boy 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
Monthly Total+29.78pts
Running Total+3738.18pts
Back MyBoyAlfie 8pts at 7.4-2nd(-8pts) & Lay North Star Boy 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
Monthly Total+29.78pts
Running Total+3738.18pts
23rd September
4.0 Plumpton-Forecast rain could mean a going change which would leave lots of these vulnerable.King Ozzy is inconsistent but thats built into the price,it ran well last time and will handle softer ground.
Back King Ozzy 5pts at 13.0-2nd(-5pts)Ran a great race,got beaten a neck
430 Plumpton-Really like Illysantchristina here,very consistent that is top of my ratings.1win-1place-3runs in September,1/1 at the course and the trainer is 2wins-2places-7runs in the last month.I would be wary of Another Trump if the money came for it.
Back Illysantachristina 15pts at 6.0-4th(-15pts)(DT-20pts)
Back King Ozzy 5pts at 13.0-2nd(-5pts)Ran a great race,got beaten a neck
430 Plumpton-Really like Illysantchristina here,very consistent that is top of my ratings.1win-1place-3runs in September,1/1 at the course and the trainer is 2wins-2places-7runs in the last month.I would be wary of Another Trump if the money came for it.
Back Illysantachristina 15pts at 6.0-4th(-15pts)(DT-20pts)
22nd September
205 Newbury-Cameron Highland looks the most likely winner as an improving 3yo that ive got top rated but he is about the right price.I feel that Arctic Cosmos could also be competitve here,1/1 in September and 2wins-1place-4runs after a break of 80 days or more.On pure value grounds,although having a chance ,Lay Time looks the wrong price.
Lay Lay Time 30pts at 4.2-2nd(+30pts)
440 Ayr-A race full of ifs and buts.Opera Gal is incredibly short but im reluctant to lay because of the inconsistent profiles of the others.The fact that its such a strong fav means theres some value elsewhere and im going to have a little on Circumvent,who isnt certain to like the ground but nothing apart from the out classed Epernay is,it has the ratings to win and the first time tongue tie may help.
Back Circumvent 8pts at 7.0-2nd(-8pts)(DT+22pts)
340 Catterick-Party Line is the most obvious choice here and it must go well but theres no value in its price.Its quite tight in behind it but Art Scholar is a really big price,theres no real negatives in its profile and if the fav doesnt run up to its mark then it may be able to take advantage.
Back Art Scholar 4pts at 20.0-UP(-4pts)(DT+18pts)
920 Wolverhampton-Another race with a strong fav but Iceman George is short enough.Laconicos will be on the premises but a record 2 wins from 87 runs tells its own story.Going in with another big price here with Sweet Lavender who achieved a decent rating last time and tonight ,makes its debut for gambling stable,Michael Wighams yard.he drops it in trip and De Sousa is booked.Wont be a surprise if it shortens up.
Back Sweet Lavender 6pts at 13.0-Non Runner(Backed from 12s into 3/1 then pulled out,very annoying)
650 Wolverhampton-With Adranian(my tissue fav) a non runner now,this race looks totally different.No denying that Restless bay should run well but im really not sure about My Own way home and so the very well handicapped Ishetoo could possibly be the one,got a decent rating last time and is a value price.
Back Ishetoo 7pts at 7.0-UP(-7pts)(DT+11pts)Small profit on a difficult day.
Days total minus commission+10.45pts
Monthly Total+57.78pts
Running Total+3766.18pts
Lay Lay Time 30pts at 4.2-2nd(+30pts)
440 Ayr-A race full of ifs and buts.Opera Gal is incredibly short but im reluctant to lay because of the inconsistent profiles of the others.The fact that its such a strong fav means theres some value elsewhere and im going to have a little on Circumvent,who isnt certain to like the ground but nothing apart from the out classed Epernay is,it has the ratings to win and the first time tongue tie may help.
Back Circumvent 8pts at 7.0-2nd(-8pts)(DT+22pts)
340 Catterick-Party Line is the most obvious choice here and it must go well but theres no value in its price.Its quite tight in behind it but Art Scholar is a really big price,theres no real negatives in its profile and if the fav doesnt run up to its mark then it may be able to take advantage.
Back Art Scholar 4pts at 20.0-UP(-4pts)(DT+18pts)
920 Wolverhampton-Another race with a strong fav but Iceman George is short enough.Laconicos will be on the premises but a record 2 wins from 87 runs tells its own story.Going in with another big price here with Sweet Lavender who achieved a decent rating last time and tonight ,makes its debut for gambling stable,Michael Wighams yard.he drops it in trip and De Sousa is booked.Wont be a surprise if it shortens up.
Back Sweet Lavender 6pts at 13.0-Non Runner(Backed from 12s into 3/1 then pulled out,very annoying)
650 Wolverhampton-With Adranian(my tissue fav) a non runner now,this race looks totally different.No denying that Restless bay should run well but im really not sure about My Own way home and so the very well handicapped Ishetoo could possibly be the one,got a decent rating last time and is a value price.
Back Ishetoo 7pts at 7.0-UP(-7pts)(DT+11pts)Small profit on a difficult day.
Days total minus commission+10.45pts
Monthly Total+57.78pts
Running Total+3766.18pts
20th September
440 Ayr-Very competitive race in which several can be fancied.Clayton is very unexposed and probably should be fav,Scrapper Smith is 2/5 in Sept,2/3 over the distance and 2/5 on the ground and Kalk Bay has been running very well,so Voodoo Prince although having a chance looks a little short to me.
Lay Voodoo Prince 30pts at 5.3-Meeting Abandoned
Lay Voodoo Prince 30pts at 5.3-Meeting Abandoned
19th September
4.0 Sandown
Quite a tight little race but I like Fullbright here,whos very consistent ratings wise.The jockey is 4/6 on the horse and the main danger is Tazahum.
Back Fullbright 14pts at 3.65-Won(1 Non Runner +33pts)
Days total minus commission+31.35pts
Monthly Total+47.33pts
Running Total+3755.73pts
Quite a tight little race but I like Fullbright here,whos very consistent ratings wise.The jockey is 4/6 on the horse and the main danger is Tazahum.
Back Fullbright 14pts at 3.65-Won(1 Non Runner +33pts)
Days total minus commission+31.35pts
Monthly Total+47.33pts
Running Total+3755.73pts
17th September
440 Musselburgh-Kay Gee Be looks to hold outstanding claims here,its well clear on my ratings,has a record of 3wins-1place-5races in class 5 or 6 races and can handle quick or softer conditions.Just Lille(a winner twice before for the blog) is probably the main danger as Pass Muster has a poor record(0wins-1place-6runs) in fields of 10 and more runners.
Back Kay Gee Be 25pts at 3.0-2nd(-25pts)Very well backed but just couldnt get to Just Lille.Very frustrating.
Monthly Total+15.98pts
Running Total+3724.38pts
Back Kay Gee Be 25pts at 3.0-2nd(-25pts)Very well backed but just couldnt get to Just Lille.Very frustrating.
Monthly Total+15.98pts
Running Total+3724.38pts
16th September
240 Bath-Happy to take on Buzz law even though its clearly fancied.Its got a bit to find on ratings with Authoritarian,Cyril the squirrel and Hip Hip hooray,other negatives are 0wins-1place-9runs in fields of 10 or more and no course form.
Lay Buzz Law 30pts at 5.8-Non Runner
430 Ffos Las-Pearl Blue is making the market here as it looks pretty short to me.Kyleakin Lass has produced consistent ratings,is 2wins-places-7runs in fields of 9 or less and its trainer has a 44% strike rate at the course.
Back Kyleakin Lass 9pts at 6.4*2 non runners now* Take 12pts at 4.0-Won(+36pts)
Days total minus commission+34.20pts
Monthly Total+40.98pts
Running Total+3749.38pts
Lay Buzz Law 30pts at 5.8-Non Runner
430 Ffos Las-Pearl Blue is making the market here as it looks pretty short to me.Kyleakin Lass has produced consistent ratings,is 2wins-places-7runs in fields of 9 or less and its trainer has a 44% strike rate at the course.
Back Kyleakin Lass 9pts at 6.4*2 non runners now* Take 12pts at 4.0-Won(+36pts)
Days total minus commission+34.20pts
Monthly Total+40.98pts
Running Total+3749.38pts
15th September
240 Chester-Modun looks strong here,top rated with the last 3 showing steady progression and a record in September of 2wins-1place-3runs.Glen Diamond should struggle around this tight track over a trip too sharp so I think Goldoni is the main danger.
Back Modun 20pts at 3.0 -UP(-20pts)Very poor run
505 Chester-The sheer consistency of Miss Cap Estel gets her the vote here,looks almost certain to run its race.
Back Miss Cap Estel 9.5pts at 5.2-Won(+40pts)
415 Doncaster-Widely percieved that Lethal Force`s win last time was a fluke,im not so sure as this horse is clearly improving,posting this seasons top rating out of these runners and a good topspeed figure as well.Strong Suit has an excellent record in Group 2`s(3wins-1place-4runs)but on my ratings isnt the same horse this year.
Back Lethal Force 10pts at 6.6-3rd(-10pts)Ran well but, hindsight of course,Strong Suit shouldve been laid at the short price.(DT+10pts)
150 Doncaster-Prefer both of the other 2 Godolphin horses rather than Frankie Dettoris mount,who seems to put up its best ratings at Ascot.Quick Wit will run well especially as it comes into top form at this time of year Sept/Oct(3wins-1place-5runs),Jakes Destiny is improving as well in a competitive race,
Lay Invisible Man 30pts at 6.0-3rd(+30pts)
330 Bath-Dancing Primo is in a rich vein of form and should be too good for these.
Back Dancing Primo 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)Stayed on strongly(DT+80pts)
350 Newcastle-This is a very weak affair and although there has to be a slight concern that Fayr Fall places more than it wins but the fact that it is top rated and should run its race ,which is more than can be said for its rivals,means it should go very close.
Back Fayr Fall 15pts at 3.7-3rd(-15pts)Got down to 1.5 in running despite never getting closer than 3rd,looks a weak finisher.(DT+65pts)
520 Doncaster-Incredibly busy day and I have to wonder if im missing something here but Incendo is a massive price.Ive got it top rated and its placed 3 times in its 4 runs at this course.
Back Incendo 5pts at 18.0-UP(-5pts)(DT+60pts)
Days total minus commission+57pts
Monthly Total+6.78pts
Running Total+3715.18pts
Back Modun 20pts at 3.0 -UP(-20pts)Very poor run
505 Chester-The sheer consistency of Miss Cap Estel gets her the vote here,looks almost certain to run its race.
Back Miss Cap Estel 9.5pts at 5.2-Won(+40pts)
415 Doncaster-Widely percieved that Lethal Force`s win last time was a fluke,im not so sure as this horse is clearly improving,posting this seasons top rating out of these runners and a good topspeed figure as well.Strong Suit has an excellent record in Group 2`s(3wins-1place-4runs)but on my ratings isnt the same horse this year.
Back Lethal Force 10pts at 6.6-3rd(-10pts)Ran well but, hindsight of course,Strong Suit shouldve been laid at the short price.(DT+10pts)
150 Doncaster-Prefer both of the other 2 Godolphin horses rather than Frankie Dettoris mount,who seems to put up its best ratings at Ascot.Quick Wit will run well especially as it comes into top form at this time of year Sept/Oct(3wins-1place-5runs),Jakes Destiny is improving as well in a competitive race,
Lay Invisible Man 30pts at 6.0-3rd(+30pts)
330 Bath-Dancing Primo is in a rich vein of form and should be too good for these.
Back Dancing Primo 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)Stayed on strongly(DT+80pts)
350 Newcastle-This is a very weak affair and although there has to be a slight concern that Fayr Fall places more than it wins but the fact that it is top rated and should run its race ,which is more than can be said for its rivals,means it should go very close.
Back Fayr Fall 15pts at 3.7-3rd(-15pts)Got down to 1.5 in running despite never getting closer than 3rd,looks a weak finisher.(DT+65pts)
520 Doncaster-Incredibly busy day and I have to wonder if im missing something here but Incendo is a massive price.Ive got it top rated and its placed 3 times in its 4 runs at this course.
Back Incendo 5pts at 18.0-UP(-5pts)(DT+60pts)
Days total minus commission+57pts
Monthly Total+6.78pts
Running Total+3715.18pts
14th September
320 Chester-Theres no doubt that Countrywide Flame made up into a good hurdler last season and it may have improved but it has no great record fresh and is very short here.It may well win but on value grounds has to be taken on.
Lay Countrywide Flame 30pts at 3.0-Won(-60pts)Hopefully some people following traded out as this was weak in the betting until 10 mins before the off.
340 Sandown-Presburg put up its best rating last time when upped to this trip for the 1st time.It won its only race last September and should go well here.
Back Presburg 12pts at 4.0-2nd(-12pts)Ran a good race and traded at 1.5 in running but just got done late on.(DT-72pts)
915 Wolverhampton-One Way or Another burst back to form last time and is clear top rated here on a track where it has several good ratings.
Back One Way or Another 15pts at 5.0-3rd(-15pts)Had this at 2.25 on my tissue,so knew the 5.0 last night was big value as it got backed into 2.3.However it was held out the back in a slowly run race and finished a never nearer 3rd.(DT-87pts)
515 Sandown-Going to have abit on Uncle Fred because of its good record in fields of 9 or less(3wins-0places-7runs) and the trainers record over the last 28 days(3wins-2places-7runs).First Post has an obvious chance and Love Tatoo is unexposed.
Back Uncle Fred 5pts at 16.0-UP(-5pts)(DT-92pts)
Monthly Total-50.22pts
Running Total+3658.18pts
Lay Countrywide Flame 30pts at 3.0-Won(-60pts)Hopefully some people following traded out as this was weak in the betting until 10 mins before the off.
340 Sandown-Presburg put up its best rating last time when upped to this trip for the 1st time.It won its only race last September and should go well here.
Back Presburg 12pts at 4.0-2nd(-12pts)Ran a good race and traded at 1.5 in running but just got done late on.(DT-72pts)
915 Wolverhampton-One Way or Another burst back to form last time and is clear top rated here on a track where it has several good ratings.
Back One Way or Another 15pts at 5.0-3rd(-15pts)Had this at 2.25 on my tissue,so knew the 5.0 last night was big value as it got backed into 2.3.However it was held out the back in a slowly run race and finished a never nearer 3rd.(DT-87pts)
515 Sandown-Going to have abit on Uncle Fred because of its good record in fields of 9 or less(3wins-0places-7runs) and the trainers record over the last 28 days(3wins-2places-7runs).First Post has an obvious chance and Love Tatoo is unexposed.
Back Uncle Fred 5pts at 16.0-UP(-5pts)(DT-92pts)
Monthly Total-50.22pts
Running Total+3658.18pts
13th September
515 Epsom-Aubrietia stands out for me here,putting together a nice consistent run of ratings and being 3wins-1place-4runs for this jockey.
Back Aubrietia 15pts at 4.3-4th(-15pts)Not sure the horse handled the track but was going for a gap that was always going to close as the horses drifted on the course camber,dropped to last and stayed on strongly for 4th place.Better than this
Monthly Total+41.78pts
Running Total+3750.18pts
Back Aubrietia 15pts at 4.3-4th(-15pts)Not sure the horse handled the track but was going for a gap that was always going to close as the horses drifted on the course camber,dropped to last and stayed on strongly for 4th place.Better than this
Monthly Total+41.78pts
Running Total+3750.18pts
12th September
430 Carlisle-Decent race where I like the claims of the 3yo Anton Chigurh,who looks to be improving from a ratings perspective and could go on a bit more now stepped up to a mile.
Back Anton Chigurh 10pts at 5.3-Won(1 Non Runner +35pts)
Days total minus commission+33.25pts
Monthly Total+56.78pts
Running Total+3765.18pts
Back Anton Chigurh 10pts at 5.3-Won(1 Non Runner +35pts)
Days total minus commission+33.25pts
Monthly Total+56.78pts
Running Total+3765.18pts
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