Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
255 Carlisle-Elysian Flame does hold a bit of a class edge here and drops in grade but its trainer has not had a winner with his last 42 runners and it looks a little short to me.
I like Foster`sisland,who is progressive,a course winner and won by over 20 lengths on both previous starts.
Barnay is another course winner but its more exposed and ive got it a few pounds behiind the principals.
Back Foster`sisland 5pts at 3.25 at Hills-3rd(-16pts)Smashed into evens but really got a poor ride.
420 Newcastle-Mick Maestro can be forgiven its latest run as its rein snapped.It heads my figures and the form of its run 2 dtarts back has been boosted.
The better ground will suit and it could get a solo up front.
Pay The Piper is progressive and rates the danger.
Back Mick Maestro 8pts at 5.0 at Betvictor/Paddys-4th
225 Uttoxeter-Shanty Alley is consistent and still on the up based on my ratings.
It has won around here and trip and ground are fine.
St Barts is unexposed but needs to improve again to trouble the selection.dc
Back Shanty Alley 7pts at 6.0 at Paddys/Betfair-3rd
300 Uttoxeter-Last time out was Mint Conditions worse run of the season.That was over the furthest trip its tried,so if it was the trip and not that the horse has had enough then its big value here.
It had been progressive before that and will appreciate the drop in grade.
Back Mint Condition 6pt at 8.0 at Bet365-2nd
445 Uttoxeter-Gaia Vallis burst into life over fences last time out and if it can translate that back to hurdles then its on a lenient mark here.
Its still very lightly raced ,so I would expect further progress if it can back that up.
Lady Cylla is fairly exposed despite running well last time while Kimberley could be much better on this ground but it needs to improve loads for it
Back Gaia Vallis 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365-UP (DT-33pts)
330 Fakenham-You have to respect the improving One More Fleurie but it is up nearly a stone and in class,so it will need to step forward again.
Defuture Is Bright hasnt been seen for a while but the trainer does ok here although this trip is a concern.
The value looks to be Templehills,who has pulled up the last twice but could be revitalised by the return to this track(2/2 here) and better ground.Its very well handicapped on old form.
Back Templehills 7pts at 6.5 at Hills-Fell(-7pts)Incredible drifter and ran like it was drunk.
305 Cheltenham-Looking through this,I just keep coming back to two time winner,Al Boum Photo.
With no doubts about wellbeing,stamina,ground or track form,its a deserved favourite and id have it more 2/1 than the current price.
A Plus Tard has got to prove it can get home over this trip while the same could be said for Champ although it does look like it will suit,however its jumping can be sketchy.
Minella Indo would prefer slower ground and Native River is surely too old at 11 now.
Back Al Boum Photo 11pts at 4.33 at Boyles-3rd(-11pts)Several little mistakes and jockey outridden at the final turn.(DT-18pts)
1240 Hexham-West End Lady posted a rating on its debut that would take a bit of beating here.
It hasnt produced it in two starts since but its been given a 79 day break and that may revitalise it,if it does then this lightly raced horse is value.
Lady Villanelle is also unexposed but looks on a fairly stiff mark on my figures while Gamesters Icon may appreciate the drop in trip and rates the main danger.
Back West End Lady 6pts at 8.0 at Bet365-3rd(-6pts)I was hopeful jumping the 2nd last as the leaders were stopping but it went nowhere.
650 Kempton-With a record of 5w-1p-8r over this course and distance then Uzincso must have a fair chance of adding to that.
Its at its best in a big field and although its got a tricky draw,its won from wider around here.
Back Uzincso 16pts at 3.25 at Hills/Bet365-Won(+48pts*BOG)Always well placed and was always holding on.
305 Cheltenham-There should be loads of pace on here and that will suit Sharjah.
It hit the frame in this last year and could easily do so again and hails from a yard that have won this 4 times in the last 10 years.
Honeysuckle has yet to face defeat but this is its toughest task to date while Epatante hasnt hit the heights of last season this year.
Goshen returned to form last time but will be up in the heat of the race here,from an early stage.
Back Sharjah 5ptS each way at 11.0 at Betvictor/Boyles/Betfred-2nd(+14pts)A good run but the winner far too good
450 Cheltenham-Next Destination looks set for a big run here.Its unexposed over fences and this trip.
It looks set to improve for both and must go close,granted a decent round of jumping.
Galvin has clearly been saved for this and rates a big danger but may just prefer better ground.
Back Next Destination 14pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-14pts)Another to run well but just got outstayed.
135 Southwell-Qaaraat drops from a class 4 into a class 6 and easily tops my ratings.
Its been running consistently and looks to have been found a fair opportunity.
Clear danger is the lightly raced Due A Win,who could be on a decent mark for its handicap debut.
True Hero is the other in with a chance but it looks up against it on my figures.
Back Qaaraat 15pts at 3.25 at Various Bookies-3rd(-15pts)below par run(DT-15pts)
247 Plumpton-Moroder looks to be improving and is unexposed as a staying hurdler.
I would have it as fav on my figures.
Blame The Game won well last time but finished 10 lengths behind the selection 2 starts back and is now 3Ibs worse off.
Deebaj is running well but is up 2 grades.
Back Moroder 9pts at 5.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-9pts)Looked like it was coming to win but one paced
100 Stratford-Shut The Box drops in class and should go well but its got a habit of finding one too good.
Kap Auteuil did us a favour last time and that rating it posted suggests there more to come.I`d want it handy as it stays well.
Back Kap Auteuil 16pts at 3.5 at Bet365-Won(+40pts)Jumped well and won easy
203 Stratford-There should be a decent pace on here and that should suit Orrisdale,whos been in decent form and has a good chance of breaking its duck over fences.
I like the cheekpieces for the first time angle and its wins have come on left handed tracks.
Back Orrisdale 11pts at 4.33 at Hills-3rd(-11pts)Another to run well but not get it done.
340 Taunton-Beau Du Brizais is more reliable than most in this and drops into a grade where its gained 3 career wins.I would definitely have it at the top of the market.
This is easier than the races Danny Whizbang has been contesting but it may need the ground to dry out.
Back Beau Du Brizais 16pts at 3.25 at Hills-3rd(-16pts)Very odd betting heat with this very weak.(DT+4pts)
402 Hereford-You have to forgive a little but at the prices,its worth seeing if Hatcher can bounce back here.
Its down in class into a grade where its 2 from 3 and it returns during its best time of the season(Mar/Apr 3w-2p-5r) plus a fine 9w-0p-13r record in fields of 7 or less means theres enough there to warrant an interest.
Solomon Grey should go well while Marracudja came back to form last time but it remains to be seen if it backs that up.
Back Hatcher 4pts at 12.0 at bet365/888sport-UP(-4pts)Moved into and then dropped away quickly
455 Ayr-Ardera Cross excels at this track and with conditions to suit,its stamina should kick into play late on.Its 7w-2p-21r in fields of 7 runners or less also.
Pistol Park looks the obvious danger but consistency is not its strongest suit.
Back Ardera Cross 14pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-Won(+35pts)Foot perfect and tough to past
820 Chelmsford-This could be the ideal trip for Single,as its just been weakening late on over 2 miles.
There doesnt look to be loads of pace,so it should be able to either to lead or sit handy.
Back Single 4pts at 13.0 at Bet365
1145 Wolverhampton-Although its more exposed than most,Nortonthorpe Boy goes well here(2/4 at the track) and at this trip(4w-1p-6r) ,it looks a fair price.
Back Nortonthorpe Boy 5pts at 10.0 at Various Bookies-5th(-5pts)Ran a fair race
415 Sandown-The step up in trip and back on decent ground should prove ideal for Stormy Flight.
Its been finishing close to some progressive rivals and looks a decent price.
Bard Of Brittany could have its work cut out under a penalty and up in class.
Back Stormy Flight 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365/Hills-3rd(-7pts)
700 Newcastle-The progressive Arafi is the right favourite but Toronado Queen is the wrong price here.
Its been consistent and gets this trip really well,it actually posted its best career rating on its first start at this track last time.It should be half the price it is.
Arafi is improving and might even be better over this trip but it is up 2 grades from its latest win.
Back Toronado Queen 6pts at 8.0 at Bet365-UP(-6pts)Backed into 7/4 and finished last!
350 Carlisle-Sabbathical looks a tight price based on its chasing career so far although the trainer does well when he sends one up here,id prefer to see more before supporting it.
Bingo D`Olivate is up in class but has the ratings to figure while Skipping On will like the conditions but is unlikely to be improving at 12 years old.
Maid O`Malley just needs to put it all together to take this.It came down when in front last time but that rating puts it in best here and after only 3 starts,it should still have some upside for a yard that have a 23% strike rate with their chasers here.
Back Maid O`Malley 9pts at 5.5 at Betvictor/Skybet-2nd(-9pts)Looked the winner 2 out but various jumping errors seem to take their toll.(DT-15pts)
320 Newcastle-If Sandy Thomson can bring Dingo Dollar back to life then it could be a big runner but this looks a good opportunity for She`sasupermack,who has form figures of 1-1-2 at this track and 1-2-1 in this grade.
Its up in trip but the stallion was best over this distance.
Gliteering Love is the other in with a chance but it wont want the ground to continue to dry out.
Back She`sasupermack 16pts at 3.25 at Various Bookies-3rd(-16pts)Market told you everything here as Dingo Dollar was hammered in
620 Southwell-Jewel Master looked a natural on this surface last time out and is taken to follow up that smooth victory.
Its best in small field(7 runners or less 2w-1p-4r) and there is lots of pace on here which will suit this horse.
Star Of St James like this course and distance but appeared to find its higher mark beyond it last while Daafr needs to be revitalised by this return to this venue.
Back Jewel Master 12pts at 3.75 at Various Bookies-3rd(-12pts)(DT-28pts)
1230 Southwell-Im surprised Ecossais isnt heading the market here.
Its 2/2 around this track and after 9 career runs,is still fairly unexposed.
Faustinovick has finished second on its last 3 starts and is clearly beatable while Rizzardo ran no sort of race last time out.
Back Ecossais 16pts at 3.25 at various Bookies-Won(+36pts)Second fine ride by this young jockey inside a week,to boot the tip home
230 Newbury-Probably the biggest issue will be getting Tegerek down to the start,its got all the ratings to take this so let hope it behaves.
535 Doncaster-Its not won for a while but from a ratings perspective,Ozzy Thomas holds a fine chance here.
The drying ground is in its favour and its on a nice mark.
The obvious danger is Twojayslad,whos won its last two and is clearly in good heart but this is 2 grades higher than last time and its never won off a mark this high.
Theres quite a bit of deadwood and out of nick horses in this race but Ballyhill could be a threat if it stays.
Back Ozzy Thomas 16pts at 3.25 at Various Bookies-3rd(-16pts)
300 Newbury-Shut The Box heads the market and I can see its chance but its never been the most consistent ratings wise and also moves up in grade.
Take it on with Defi Sacre,whos 2/2 over this course and distance and has the figures to take this.
Est Lilic heads the dangers for me as its 1/1 in this grade.
Back Defi Sacre 9pts at 5.5 at Various Bookies-3rd(-9pts)Both ran well but not well enough(DT-25pts)
115 Musselburgh-Eagle Ridge should go well as its got 3 course wins to its name and it should handle the drop in trip but it was beaten off this mark last time and is plenty short enough.
Begoodtoyourself also holds chances but it needs to improve a little on my figures,so at a price, I think Path To Freedom is the value call.
Its unexposed at this trip and it preferred this ground in the point field.
Back Path To Freedom 5pts at 10.0 at Bet365-5th(-5pts)
300 Musselburgh-Kings Creek makes its handicap debut and my ratings suggest ,its on a decent mark.
If it can reproduce its run from 3 starts back then it has the beating of this field.
Balranald has tipped up on 2 of its last 3 starts,so looks a vulnerable fav to me while Sword Of Fate has 1 win in 3 years.
Back Kings Creek 5pts at 8.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-5pts)Two poor runs(DT-10pts)
Monthly Total+18pts
Running Total+365.50pts
200 Catterick-Course specialist Ask Paddy holds a strong chance here.
It loves it here with a 4w-1p-7r record and is at its best after a recent run(Returning to the track within 30 days 6w-0p-14r) and it drops in class into a grade where its a force with 4 wins from 10 starts.
It surely must go well.
Caventara looked a good prospect back in 2019 but the wheels have fell off since.
Another Emotion represents a yard that hasnt got going all season.
Back Ask Paddy 16pts at 3.25 at Bet365/Hills-2nd(-16pts)Jumped out to its right a lot and that could have made the difference.
230 Catterick-Back over hurdles,I expect First Man to carry on its progressive profile,the slightly better ground will also help and this is pretty weak.
Clear danger is Gold Runner ,who is unexposed over this trip but is penalised for its recent win.
Back First Man 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365-Won(+66pts*BOG*)Dug it out well and drifted too.
300 Catterick-If the same Relkadam turns up that won last week then it will definitely win but its not the most consistent and I couldnt have it at odds on.
Miss Amelia competes off a career high mark,it is in good form but its ran below par in two previous visits here while Pull Green is unexposed but needs to improve.
The value is Monsieur Co,who should be able to creep into it and if its at its best then its a crazy price.
Back Monsieur Co 4pts at 11.0 at Hills-UP
340 Leicester-We were on Miss Zip last time,when it was hammered in the betting but made a bad mistake early on and was pulled up.
I have got to give this well handicapped horse another chance particularly as its 3/3 during Feb and March.
Arqalina looks a vulnerable fav to me,as its on a career mark now after its latest win and marks near this have proved too much in the past.
The unexposed Boro Babe is probably the main danger.
Back Miss Zip 8pts at 6.0 at Various Bookies-PU(-8pts)Lifeless performance(DT+38pts)
240 Plumpton-The return to better ground should enable Jackson Hill to stay on the bridle,providing his jumping holds up.It tends to cruise through its races but doesnt find much when let down.
Its ratings suggest its improving and with a decent pace likely,I expect it to arrive looking strong 2 out and hopefully produce when it matters.
Dandolo Du Gute finished behind the selection last time and doesnt appear to be the most consistent.
Wemceslaus has 3 course wins to its name and is respected however,its off a career high mark.
Back Jackson Hill 2pts at 5.0 at Bet365-3rd(-10pts)Perfect set up for it but it couldnt deliver.
210 Fontwell-The Crooner might win but its far too short here,I`m happy to take it on.
Invincible Cave holds chances but is around the right price and drying ground wouldnt be ideal for it.
Cherokee Bill has been running fairly solid but may prefer it a little shorter,so if Magic River can put it all together then I can see it going close.
Its run 3 starts back,saw it post a rating that wins this race and theres been a little support overnight,so Im hopeful of a big run.
Back Magic River 8pts at 6.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-8pts)Always outpaced
350 Hereford-Tinkers Hill Tommy is a fair favourite ,it ran well on its first start for Rebecca Curtis and if it comes on from that then its a big threat but it may bounce off that run and as its only managed 2 runs in the last 3 years,its clearly fragile.
First Figaro reappears after 417 days but Ive no doubt the trainer will have it fit and well,however this horse has a very patchy profile and has never won a handicap in 25 career starts.
The value is Overawed,who has been in consistent form and looks more likely than most to run its race.
Back Overawed 9pts at 5.5 at Hills-Non Runner(DT-8pts)Disappointing month.
Monthly Total-31.50pts
Running Total+347.50pts
645 Wolverhampton-The Pretty Way has a decent chance but looks very short for a horse that has to prove its stamina while Halwa Azyan seems to get going too late in its races.
So at a price,maybe Gonzaga can put it all together finally.Its yet to get its head in front but its running so well and posting good enough figures to take this.
There should be a strong pace to aim at and come home strong.
Back Gonzaga 6pts at 7.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-6pts)If any race sums up this month then this was it.Given a perfect ride,it went to the front and pulled two lengths clear but gradually got reeled in and lost on the nod.
435 Lingfield-Pop Dancer is definitely the value here.Its top rated and has a fine record of 4w-2p-8r in fields of 7 or less and 4w-2p-10r at this trip.
It finished in front of the fav last time and should be around the 11/4 mark.
Saaheq won well at the weekend and appears well treated under a penalty but this is a quick turnaround.
Outrage was below par last time at Newcastle but has run to its best in both previous visits here although its 0w-0p-10r between Feb and June.
Tin Hat drops down to 5 furlongs which may suit but it does find winning difficult.
Back Pop Dancer 9pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-9pts)
353 Warwick-There are no negatives in Springtown Lake`s profile as it bids to follow up its win in this race last year.
Its 4w-2p-10r at this trip and is at home on the soft ground.
It ran over a trip too far last time and didnt take to the national fences the time before but its run first time out this season was a fine effort and the trainer has won this race twice in the last 6 years.
Main danger has to be Espoir De Guye,who has the ratings if at its best although it may possibly be a little better going right handed.
Back Springtown Lake 8pts at 6.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-8pts)-DT(23pts)
257 Chepstow -You can pick holes in most in this but Perfect Man looks well overpriced to me.
Its a course winner,which is so vital around here and likes soft ground(4w-0p-10r),its 2 from 5 in the month of February and an impressive 3w-0p-4r in fields of 7 or less like this.
I would have it at a single figure price.
If Poker Play can back up its latest effort then it should win but its very inconsistent while Black Kentucky reverts back to hurdles after some shocking runs over fences this season.
Back Perfect Man 1pt at 21.0 at Bet365/Tote-3rd(-3pts)Nicely backed and touched 2.3 in running.Shame it missed the last hurdle as it may have got close.
327 Chepstow-Zambezi Fix is definitely the value in this race,
It posted a good rating last time out at this track and if it can cope with the drop in trip then it really should go close.Ive got it around the 5/2 mark on my tissue.
Funambule Sivola is the clear main danger,as a progressive chaser but its a tight enough price.
Arian isnt out of it as its 1/1 at this track but often loses its form at this time of year(Feb/Mar 0w-0p-5r)
Back Zambezi Fix 6pts at 8.0 at Paddys/Betfair-2nd(-6pts)Ran really well but the fav was too strong.(DT-9pts)
320 Wetherby-Everything points to a big run from Eceparti here.
Its gradually edging down the weights,it won on its only start over course and distance(posting a carrer best rating),soft ground is fine and the trainer has a 33% strike rate here.
Cybalko races under a penalty and off a career high mark,its had a fine season and isnt discounted but this trip is also a little further than it prefers and it looks vulnerable.
Manetti looks up against it on my ratings while Caboy ran well last time but is inconsistent.
Back Eceparti 14pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-4th(_14pts)Really underwhelming performance.
215 Wetherby-Snougar is handicapped to win now and returns to a track where it won on its only other chase start here.
Its 2w-0p-4r in Feb and March and if it can run close to its previous visit here then its a big runner.
Im not sure I trust Relkadam and certainly not as favourite,its 0w-1p-6r in this class and finished 15 lengths behind the selection on its only run here.
Rollerruler is 0 from 12 in its career and moves up in grade,the horse that beat it last time has done nothing for the form.
I did keep looking at Las Tunas as its 2/2 here and this is its trip but its record after a break is poor(61 days + 0w-0p-6r),if the money comes then I would be wary of it.
Back Snougar 7pts at 6.5 at Skybet/Bet365-2nd(-7pts)Ran well but Relkadam hosed up.
440 Newcastle-Theres no doubt Caribeno is a tough opponent here but it is up in the weights and moves up 2 grades plus its got more distance to cover.It may well suit but on a track its never raced on and where its stallion has just a 3% strike rate,we may be able to get the odds on shot beat.
Manjaam is greatly respected as its 3/3 here but at the prices I just prefer Busy Street.
This horse is nicely handicapped on the flat and has been in fine form in jumpers bumpers,over this course and distance,since it joined this in form trainer.
Its the only horse to have won in this grade and has the ratings to take this.
Back Busy Street 6pts at 7.0 at Various Bookies-3rd(-6pts)They strolled round but it came to win the race(Touched 1.6 in running) but flattened out.(DT-27pts)
135 Carlisle-This will be a staying test and that should suit Scottish Accent,who has easily the best two ratings in the race,if it runs to its best.
417 Uttoxeter-This is quite competitve for the grade but im surprised Easy Bucks isnt shorter.
Its 2 from 2 at this track and drops in class here.
Eaton Miller is just 1 from 27 in its career while Pleney is unexposed as a chaser but is inconsistent.
The biggest danger is probably The Ogle Gogle Man whos on a decent mark back over fences.
Back Easy Bucks 10pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-Pulled UP(-10pts)
240 Haydock-I like the progressive Notachance here,After only 6 runs over fences and 11 in total,its produced a progressive rating in each and every one.
300 Lingfield-Various doubts surrounding several here,Uther Pendragon ran well last time and is consistent but 3 wins from 58 runs isnt great,its never won at this trip and its up 2 grades from last time.
1230 Leicester-Im keen to take on Underworkandunderpaid here,its been in decent form but it is 0w-1p-12r in this class and 0w-1p-6r going right handed,so there are doubts.
620 Kempton-I really like Lequinto here.Its consistent and progressive and posted a career best rating when upped to a mile for the first time, last time out.
640 Newcastle-With 4 course wins to its name,its clear Chosen World likes this place.
It does move up in class here but its won in the grade twice before and is 2w-2p-6r on a standard to slow track plus also 4w-6p-16r when wearing cheek pieces like today,on my ratings it should be shorter.
Ghatanfar is consistent but is creeping up the weights and looks vulnerable to me.
With Promise looks the main danger after Bobby Joe Leg ran a stinker last time.
Back Chosen World 8pts at 5.5 at Bet365-UP(-8pts)Looked briefly dangerous but flattened out.
710 Newcastle-Global Warning looks a dodgy fav to me here,it got stuffed at odds on last time and is 11Ibs higher than its win here,two starts back.Add to that a record of 0w-2p-6r on standard to slow tracks and it needs to be taken on.
Im hoping Spartan Fighter can dominate from the front here,its generally posted a string of progressive ratings with its latest over this course and distance ,its best yet.
Its 2w-0p-3r in fields of 7 or less like this and 3 from 6 when retuning to the track within 30 days,if its not taken on upfront early on then it will take a bit of pegging back.
Kind Review goes well here but is on a career high mark now.
Back Spartan Fighter 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-UP(-12pts)Absolutely massive drifter and therefore,knew its fate before it ran.
425 Wolverhampton-True Hero looks very short to me here.It won last time out but that was on a different surface and it was stuffed on its only visit here.
Amazing Amaya has run several good races here and has posted its best ratings at this track,with a strong pace to run at,it should go close.
I would have it as favourite.
Nellie French looks the main danger to me,as it posted a good rating over course and distance last time.
Back Amazing Amaya 8pts at 5.0 at Tote-UP(-8pts)Frustrating to see Nellie French win.
530 Wolverhampton-Nate The Great is on a nice mark now and has been knocking on the door,its hit the frame on both starts here and hopefully it can go one better here.
Lucky Deal is improving but has no track form to its name,on my ratings,it needs to continue to improve to take a hand here.
Back Nate The Great 4pts at 3.25 at Bet365-Won(+36pts)Always well placed and stayed on well.
630 Wolverhampton-This is a decent race but a record of 3w-1p-6r at this track means Assimilation holds strong claims.
Luke Morris is 3w-1p-7r on it and its still fairly unexposed at this trip.
Sky Defender is running well but is now 9Ibs higher than its last winning mark on the all weather,so the biggest danger looks to be Power Of States,who is 1/1 over this course and distance.
Back Assimilation 14pts at 3.5 at Bet365/Tote-UP(-14pts)Weak in the betting and a very poorly judged ride from Luke Morris didnt help.(DT+14pts)
150 Southwell-8 furlongs around this track clearly suits Straitouttacompton(Form figures 1-5-1-1) and 3w-1p-6r in this class plus there should be plenty of pace to go at,this horse should hopefully break the current poor run.
545 Wolverhampton-Arafi has been in good form and is improving but its price looks tight to me with no track form to its name.
Love Destiny is another who was going well until turning in a below par effort last time and once again,its looks underpriced on its first visit here.
I like Jackstar,who drops back into a class 5 for the first time in nearly 2 years.It won that race over this course and distance and represents a yard that have a 24% strike rate in the last few weeks,its a big price.
Critical Thinking is another overpriced,as its very consistent around this track and has the ratings to be there at the finish.
Back Jackstar 6pts at 7.0 at Various Bookies-4th(-6pts)Fav far too good.
730 Newcastle-It seems odd that a few at the top of the market have questions to answer on the distance front.
Broctune Red is consistent but likes it here but its raced over further generally and is now 10Ibs higher than its last winning mark while Dramista is another that appears to prefer further.
Thats not the case for Bobby Joe Leg,who drops in class despite winning last time,its got 4 course wins to its name and its running style suits this track,so i expect it to be handy in a race without too much obvious pace and a host of horses that prefer further,it should be clear favourite.
Back Bobby Joe Leg 14pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-3rd(-14pts)Another to have run miles below par.
615 Wolverhampton-Beat Le Bon would be a big threat here if it had some track form and any type of record after a break but it hasnt and it looks underpriced to me.
Keyser Soze cleans up in lower grades than this but is an infrequent winner when appearing in this class and is another without track form.
I can see Revolutionise going well as its in good form but for me ,this is all about Tranchee.
Its top rated,has finished 1st and 2nd(Beaten a Short Head) in its 2 runs at this track,is 2 from 3 in fields of 7 or less like this and is 2w-4p-6r in this class.
It should take the beating.
Back Tranchee 20pts at 3.0 at Bet365-2nd(-20pts)Backed into odds on and looked the clear winner after moving to the front 2f out but seemed to find very little.Another disappointment in a tough month so far.
Monthly Total-65pts
Running Total+314pts
355 Musselburgh-This is quite competitive but the lightly raced Hills Of Connemara appeals the most.
This horse won nicely on only its second chase start and is also unexposed at this trip.It looks a decent price to me.
Eagle Rock likes it here with 3 course wins but tends to operate better at a lower level while Event Of Sivola places more often than anything else.
Big Difference is yet to break its duck over fences and probably wants better ground.Definite Wisdom appeals as the biggest danger as its 2 from 3 here and a late blunder last time cost it.
Back Hills Of Connemara 8pts at 6.5 at Paddys/Betvictor
425 Musselburgh-There has been money for Gallaghers Cross but its difficult to see why.Unless its been transformed since we last saw it then it looks a favourite to take on.(Trainer 0/17 at the track)
Golden Emblem won nicely last time but its up in class,ratings and trip,never my favourite combination.
Arnica is 0/11 now while Get The Appeal represents top connections but they seem to be scrapping around trying to find its best trip.Bollingerandkrug is unexposed and moves into handicap company but needs to improve on what its shwn so far,so I like Bullion Boss,who`s ratings suggest its improving sharply.
It likes this track and should have a nice pace to run at.
Back Bullion Boss 7pts at 6.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-UP(-15pts)Two poor runs
338 Wetherby-A few unexposed ones in here making their handicap debut but none appear as well treated as Wetlands.
This horse has only had 3 runs and posted a fine rating and the best speed figure in the race when winning last time out,it also appeared to be very well suited to heavy ground,which is a bonus at the moment.I would definitely have it in shorter.
Dharan and Witness Protection are the other handicap debutantes but neither appear that well in.
Laskadine looks short to me,although it won last time,that was in 2 grades lower,its 0w1p-6r in fields of 9 or less and hasnt managed a single place in 5 starts in this class.
Back Wetlands 3pts at 3.75 at Skybet/Betvictor-Meeting Abandoned
240 Musselburgh-Encountering soft ground over fences for the first time,saw Rikoboy produce a career best and posted easily the best rating in this race.
If it can back that up then theres no doubt its still well handicapped and its interesting this is the first runner this trainer has sent here for 5 years.
The obvious fly in the ointment is the difficult to assess Rockadenn,who represents a yard that have won the last 3 runnings of this.It hasn`t raced over fences here in the UK yet however,so although its respected,its a tight price.
Back Rikoboy 2pts at 5.0 at Skybet/Betvictor/Willaim Hill-2nd(-10pts)Well backed into 5/2 and held every chance but got beat a neck.
110 Lingfield-Unforgiving Minute drops back into a class where its tough to beat(8w-1p-11r)
Add to that 5 course wins and 10 distance wins and surely this must go close with leading rider Adam Kirby onboard.
Doc Sportello has a ratings chance but this doesnt appear to be its track,having only beaten 7 rivals in 5 runs here,it surely has to be vulnerable.
Mindurownbusiness has easily the back class to win this but hasnt been seen for nearly 5 years!
Back Unforgiving Minute 16pts at 4.0 at Bet365-Won(+48pts)Hammered into 5/4 and always looked like winning.
Monthly Total-2pts
Running Total+377pts
100 Wincanton-Numitor is a fair market leader here and if it runs like it did last time on its chase debut then it will be tough to beat but there is likely to be competition for the lead and this is a vastly different track to Ffos Las,where it won last time.
Take it on with Jackson Hill ,who did us a favour last time,when coming from well off the pace to win over course and distance.With the likely strong pace,it should be able to creep into it and be produced late.
Back Jackson Hill 6pts at 8.5 at Betvictor-2nd(-6pts)Everything panned out as I thought except Numitor stuck on too strong.
600 Chelmsford-On its first start at this track last time,Fly The Nest produced a rating that gives it strong claims here.
Its been in consistent form of late and should be bang there at the finish.
Casina Di Notte is a danger but the jockey has only ridden in 1 race before and that has to be a worry.
Back Fly The Nest 7pts at 6.0 at Paddys/Betfair-2nd(-7pts)beaten in a photo(DT-13pts)
305 Warwick-This is a good race but Zambella boasts an unexposed and progressive profile and it should be favourite on my figures.
It won on its only start at this track and should be able to just sit off ,what could be a contested pace.
Happy Diva has the back class to take this but its best ratings have come around Cheltenham.
Annie Mc is respected but its a tight enough price for me while Momella is in good form but has to improve on my ratings.
Back Zambella 11pts at 4.33 at Bet365-2nd(-11pts)Nicely backed and ran a good race(Touched 1.3 in running) but was outstayed.
525 Kempton-Its last 2 ratings have shown Viva Serendipity is ready to strike again.
Its ran above its mark in 2 of its 3 runs at this track and is back on its last winning mark.In fields of 11 runners or less its record is 7w-5p-20r.As a hold up performer,its need a decent pace to run at and if it gets it then it should go close.
Starshiba makes a quick return to the track after its latest win ,its up in class and up in trip(not my favourite combination) and could be vulnerable.
Sanaadh is running well also but its run 2 shockers on its previous attempts at this trip.
Back Viva Serendipity 12pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-12pts)Was well placed but just went nowhere when it mattered.Very disappointing.(DT-23pts)
540 Southwell-If it gets out from the outside stall,theres a chance that Samovar can dominate this and make all.
There isnt a great amount of pace on and this horse is in great form at the moment plus it has 7 course wins to its name,I would definitely have it as favourite.
That honour goes to Nick Vedder,who is also in great form and is 3/3 over this course and distance,however this is a rise in class for it and my ratings suggest,it needs to improve again to beat the selection.
Vandad has some decent ratings but not on this specialist track and it is 0/14 in its career.
Excessable is consistent but is possibly in the handicappers grip at the moment.
Back Samovar 9pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-9pts)Fell out the stalls unfortunately then rushed up and weakened badly.Worst run its produced in a while.
I did have my eye on Three C`s (4.40 Southwell) as it returns to a track where its finished 1-1-2-1 but my hopes of a fair price when the money came very early.
300 Sedgefield-Sigurd has found a new lease of life recently and based on its latest rating,the winning hasnt stopped yet.
Its still nicely handicapped on its form from a few seasons ago and its 3w-1p-7r in todays headgear.
Its a very solid market leader.
Event Of Sivola was running well before falling last time but its record stands at 1/17 now.Derrick D`Anjou holds chances if you go back far enough.
Back Sigurd 12pts at 3.0 at Bet365/Betvictor
710 Wolverhampton-Lotte Marie looks short to me here,its up 2 grades and ran a shocker on its only start here,I think it provides some value elsewhere.
Red Poppy is still unexposed and should go well but its around the right price.
Unlike many in this,Stay Classy is a regular in this grade and is the only runner to have won up to this class.Its been a little below par lately but this could be run to suit with a strong pace up front,its the wrong price.
Back Stay Classy 5pts at 10.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-5pts)
410 Wolverhampton-Ths is wide open and a distinct lack of regular winners on show.
The whole field have only won 6 times between them in the last 365 days and two of those were by Madrinho.
This horse has also won here before and drops back in grade,off its last winning mark.Add in Ben Curtis taking the ride(20% strike rate for the yard) and this horse looks a big price.
On pure figures then Comeatchoo has a good chance but a record of 2/45 says it all,it may do it but i`m happy to miss it at the prices.
Back Madrinho 4pts at 12.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-UP(-4pts)Fell out and never involved,ironically Comeatchoo drifted to a good price but still a good month.
Monthly Total+165.25pts
Running Total+389.00pts
205 Doncaster-Theres no doubt in my mind where the value lies in this and thats with Rayna`s World.
On my figures,this lightly raced mare has the ratings to easily outrun its odds.
The trainer has won the last 2 runnings of this,so knows what it takes and the fact this horse revels in very soft ground can only be a positive.It finished 3rd in the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last year and actually finished in front of the likely favourite here,Floressa, that day.
That horse also has a question to answer after running well below par on its only start on soft ground so far.Miranda has been fairly progressive but was beaten in a handicap last time and this is another step up in class.
Maries Rock holds chances on last seasons form but that progression stalled on its seasonal debut this term,it remains to be seen if thats as good as it is.
Back Rayna`s World 1pt at 13.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-4pts)There was money for it but it ran no sort of race.
355 Southwell-Ornate has been running well of late and returns to a track where its form figures read 2-1-1-3-2.
There is some other pace setters on show but I doubt any will be able to lay up with Ornate.This drop in class will help it to last home,if it can get away from them,which i expect it to do.
The clear danger is Tawny Port ,who is 2/2 here and will be suited by the way the race is run but it is 20 runs since it last got its head in front.
Back Ornate 20pts at 3.0 at Bet365-Won(+42.50pts*BOG)The ideal track for its front running style but brave at the end as well.
310 Wetherby-Maypole Class has progressive ratings after just 3 runs over fences and should be a shorter price than it is.
Its 3w-1p-6r going left handed and 3w-1p-4r in fields of 11 or less like today,the trip and ground are ideal and there looks to be some decent pace in the race,which it should sit off until the straight.
Town Parks is consistent and should run well and has to rate a danger while Champagne Mystery drops 2 grades and hails from a top yard but it has a very patchy profile and isnt easy to assess.
Back Maypole Class 3pts at 3.75 at Various Bookies-Meeting Abandoned
Monthly Total+173.25pts
Running Total+397.00pts
300 Lingfield-This is weak and although it has a tendency to get going too late,they may go decent gallop and that will help Bird For Life.
It has 7 wins to its name in this grade,so this drop in class will help and its last run over this course and distance,back in August,saw it beaten a nose off a 4Ib higher mark.So if the gallop is decent and the jockey can get it going early enough,it may be able to pick them off late on.
The clear danger is Aleatoric ,who has ran well in its two most recent starts.
Back Bird For Life 1pt at 8.0 at Paddys/Betfair-3rd(-6pts)Given every chance by its jockey but not good enough.
610 Wolverhampton-Opportunities are thin on the ground tomorrow but I cannot let Bell Heather go unbacked.
This is its favourite track and when appearing here in class 6 races,its never far away(5w-5p-15r) and its also 3w-1p-7r over this trip.Add in a fair draw then it should be able to sit in just behind the pace.
Heron`s Nest ran well last time over course and distance but is 0 from 11 and looks a tight enough price.
Turn Of Phrase is very lightly raced and seems to be improving,it looks the danger.
Back Bell Heather 4pts at 11.0 at Paddys/Betvictor-UP(-4pts)Weak in the betting and although in a good position,it was very one paced in the straight.
210 Chelmsford-Casaruan drops 2 grades into a class 6,back at a track where its achieved both its career wins and looks decent value at the prices.
Its only appeared in this class ,at this track twice before and won them both.
Word of Honour holds chances but has no course form while Luna Wish has gone well here before but has a poor draw.
Back Casaruan 6pts at 8.0 at Bet365-UP(-6pts)Backed into 5/2 but never in it.
410 Chelmsford-Its had a little break but if it turns up in good form then Indigo Times should be winning this.Its down in class and has won 2 of its 3 starts here,so looks a solid favourite.
Gold Standard is consistent but has no track form while Decora ran well last time on its first start for a new trainer but is up in grade and tries this track for the first time.
Back Indigo Times 18pts at 3.25 at Various Bookies-Won(+40.25pts)Won nicely.
250 Plumpton-This looks a 3 horse race to me with Cheque En Blanc appealing the most.
Its 2w-2p-7r at this track and 5w-3p-13r on races from 3m to 3m4f.After a good run last time,Im surprised it isnt heading the market.
Echo Watt is the main danger for me,it posted a good rating last time but moves up in trip and is off a career high mark,however it is 2w-1p-4r in this class.
I See You Well is inconsistent but on a going day,its got the figures to be involved.
Back Cheque En Blanc 9pts at 5.0 at Hills-2nd(-9pts)Looked like it was coming with a winning run but a horse it had gone past rallied and got up close home.(DT+25.25pts)
210 Lingfield-Always Fearless has only had one run at this track ,where it led until getting nutted close home.That was over 10 furlongs and after a fine run last time over this trip at Wolverhampton,this trip at this track could be ideal.
Add in the valuable 3Ibs being taken off by the jockey plus a drop in class and its difficult to see it not going close.
Thrill Seeker is still lightly raced but doesnt look well handicapped on what its done so far,Catch My Breath won over course and distance last time but this is a rise in class,so the main danger looks to be Rogue Tide who won last time at this track.
Back Always Fearless 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies -3rd(-12pts)Jockey gave it every chance but I dont think this horse wants to win,as it hung as soon as it came under pressure.Need to get back on the winning run!
540 Newcastle-When it appears in class 4 handicaps then Tintoretto is a force to be reckoned with(2w-1p-4r) and with jockey Tom Marquand boasting the same record on the horse then its chance is clear.
Its latest rating suggests it can win off this handicap mark and if it takes to the track then its the one to beat.
Danielsflyer looks a bit short to me with a record of 0w-4p-16r at this trip while Seas Of Elzaam looked to have no excuses when upped in class last time.
Streak Lightning would be the one id be wary of,as its still lightly raced and drops in trip.
Back Tintoretto 11pts at 4.33 at Various Bookies-3rd(-11pts)Never looked like winning
205 Haydock-Although its been racing over fences recently,Chef DOeuvre`s guaranteed stamina appeals here.It showed its on its way back when a good second to progressive rival last time,on its second run back from a long absence.
Its finished 3rd and 1st on its 2 starts at this track,is 3w-1p-7r on heavy ground and boasts 2 wins over this trip,it looks a big price.
Farrants Way drops in class but needs to find more while Hijack represents top connections but has its stamina to prove.Clyne often runs well but hasnt won for nearly 3 years.
Back Chef DOeuvre 1pt at 8.0 at Bet365-UP(-6pts)Hurdling went to pieces down the back and struggled.
240 Haydock-On the 3 times from 4 starts that Sam Brown has posted a rating,its clear its on a fair mark especially as its unexposed as a chaser and now moves up in trip with the added bonus of Ben Godfrey taking off 5Ibs but you will need to get home on this ground and it could be vulnerable late on.
Royale Pagaille won well last time but was raised 16Ibs for that success,I dont think its out of it but thats a big task.
Sams Adventure looks a bigger threat as it likes the trip,course and ground.There appears to be no holes in its profile(Heavy Ground 5w-3p-10r)(3Miles+ 2w-0p-5r)(11r or less 5w-5p-14r),it looks the value.
Back Sams Adventure 7pts at 7.0 at Paddys/Betfair-Fell(-7pts)(DT-24pts)
Monthly Total+127.50pts
Running Total+351.25pts
615 Chelmsford-Lord Riddiford posted a career best rating last time and with a 3w-2p-7r record around this track,it has to go well plus all 7 career wins have been when returning to the track within 60 days like today.I would have it as Favourite.
Tone The Barone is a big threat,as it boasts a 3/3 record over this course and distance and also goes well fresh,however it is a 14Ibs higher than its last win on the all weather and that has to be a worry.
Nigel Nott is another course specialist with 3 wins to its name and returning here could help but its last 2 runs have suggested its lost its edge for the time being.
Rovaniemi is 0 from 7 handicaps and takes another drop in trip but I still havent got it well handicapped on my figures.
Back Lord Riddiford 11pts at 4.33 at Bet365-Jockey fell off leaving the stalls!(-11pts)
150 Wincanton-Supreme Escape has only had 2 runs over fences and the rating it posted last time suggests its nicely handicapped at the moment.That is not also taking into account those runs were over much shorter than its best ratings over hurdles,so this step up in trip should be ideal.
Add in its 1/1 on heavy ground and it looks a rock solid favourite.
Favori De Sivola is also progressive but its best runs have been on good ground while Broadclyst has the ratings to be a danger but is 0 from 13.Findusatgorcombe stays very well but it is off a career high mark now.
Back Supreme Escape 18pts at 3.0 at Bet365-Pulled Up(-18pts)Backed into 6/4 but ran poorly.
350 Wincanton-From a handicapping perspective,theres no doubt Cyclop holds a fine chance here but this is just 8 days since its last run and in 4 runs over fences at this track,its achieved little(PU,PU,3rd,Fell),its current price means theres value elsewhere.
I like the progressive Nearly Perfect,who jumped for fun when winning here last time and that took its record to 2/2 at this track.
Its up in trip a little but wasnt stopping last time and could even improve for it,its definitely the wrong price.
Gleno has won its last two but up in trip and on very soft ground could find it out while Another Venture will have no problem with conditions but has it to do on my ratings.
Back Nearly Perfect 8pts at 6.0 at Bet365-4th(-8pts)Ran quite well but weakened late on(DT-26pts)
315 Chepstow-Memphis Bell continues to defy the handicapper but it was beaten 98 lengths on its only run here before,so its possible its vulnerable and a tight enough price to boot.
Take it on with Little Red Lion,whos progressive and reverts to hurdles here.Its 2w-2p-6r on heavy and its form figures over trips between 2m7f and 3m1f read 1st-1st-Fell-1st.
Le Tueur would hold chances on its win 2 starts back but it ran below par last time.
Back Little Red Lion 8pts at 6.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+40pts)Fine ride and a gutsy horse got it done.
630 Southwell-It might look stupid as they go over the line but Crazy Spin is such an incredibly short price here.
It is a 4 time course winner but its got little in hand on my figures and it faces competition for the lead from Susie Javea,so 13/8 looks really tight,Id be amazed if it doesnt drift.
False Id ended a long losing run at the weekend but its got a bit on here on my ratings,the obvious unknown is Szarratu ,who makes its debut after racing in Poland and is imterestingly owned by Dan Skelton but the betting should tell its tale.
On my figures,the value is Van Dijk,who should be favourite for me.It finished a close second last time from out the handicap and now appears off 4Ibs lower,so its handicapping chance is a good one and as long as it doesnt chuck in one of its slow starts then it must go close.
Back Van Dijk 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-12pts)Looked the winner after coming with a strong run up the straight(Touched 1.03 in running) but the winner rallied.(DT+28pts)
Monthly Total+188.50pts
Running Total+412.25pts
Could not find anything that appeared to be the wrong price.
410 Wolverhampton-From the outside stall,Spirit of Rowdown ran a cracker last time and continued its excellent form at this track(2w-1p-4r).
From a much better draw,I would expect it to go very close although it appears to have to be produced fairly late but the jockey knows the horse well,after riding it for both its wins.
Livia The Empress looks the main danger unless one of the handicap debutantes improves a fair bit.
Back Spirit of Rowdown 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-2nd(-12pts)2 more strides and it would have won,just got shuffled back early on.
335 Ayr-The drop in class could be just what Made For You needs to get its head in front again.
Its up in trip and on very soft ground,so I wouldnt want it to be too keen during the race but its ratings give it a class edge on its rivals.The trainer has a 23% strike rate at this track and the jockeys claim will help,if it stays then it wins for me.
J`Ai Froid would have a fair chance on its 2019 form but its return 47 days ago was less than encouraging,so it has questions to answer.
Back Made For You 18pts at 2.75 at Various Bookies-UP(-18pts)Very weak in the market and it ran like it(DT-30pts)
335 Southwell-Zylan will go well here,as a multiple course winner and also a horse that comes to itself at the turn of the year(Jan-Feb 12r-4w-4p) but its a tight enough price .
Requinto Dawn is another does that ok here but its generally operated at a lower level of late and it remians to be seen if it can cope with this higher grade.
Katheefa is inconsistent but is well handicapped now but I like the look of Wasntexpectingthat.
Its not hit form this season but now moves to a new yard and is nicely handicapped 5Ibs below its last winning mark.Its ran twice here before and finished 2nd and 1st,that win produced a rating that suggests its got a lot in hand if it can bounce back.
Back Wasntexpectingthat 2pts at 6.0 at Bet365-UP(7pts)Weak in the market close to the off and ran poorly.
130 Market Rasen-Since joining Ben Pauling`s yard,Fawsley Spirit`s form has gone up a level and it was unlucky not to win last time and has a good chance of gaining compensation here.
It heads my ratings and several of these are not in great form,so it looks a very solid favourite and the yard do well here(Strikerate 25%)
Blue Hussar won this last year and rates the danger although Rockhamtom is unexposed and could improve but it doesnt look well handicapped on what its done so far.
Back Fawsley Spirit 16pts at 3.25 at Bet365-Won(+36pts)Tough performance from the front.
205 Market Rasen-This looks a two horse race to me and Oscars Leader rates the value.
Although it stays further,this is its best trip and its possible it could get a solo out in front.
Edwardstone is the clear danger and reverts back to hurdles after falling on its chase debut last time,its generally operated in higher grades so far over hurdles ,so its respected but the price is tight enough.
Back Oscars Leader 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365-3rd(-12pts)Edwardstone won easily but I doubt the selection has run its race(DT+24pts)
Monthly Total+197.50pts
Running Total+421.25pts
330 Fontwell-I cannot resist having a little on Ballybreen returning to form here.
Its done very little in 2 runs so far this season but thats fairly typical(Oct-Dec 0w-0p-8r) and it tends to come alive once the turn of the year has come(Jan-Feb 3w-0p-3r).
Add to that the refitting of blinkers(3w-1p-4r in them) and a drop in grade into a class 5(3w-1p-8r) then the price could look very big come the end of the race.
Love The Leader has an obvious chance from a handicapping perspective but im not that keen about taking a short price about a horse aged 13.
Back Ballybreen 3pts at 21.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+52pts*Rule 4) Favourite was a non runner but this was still hammered into favourite.Jumped out in front and never saw another rival.Amazing run!
Monthly Total+173.50pts
Running Total+397.25pts
240 Leicester-Decent race and some lightly raced types on show but if it handles the softer ground then When You`re Ready looks a fair price based on my ratings.
Ive got it having a similar chance to Fanfaron Dino but that one is priced around the 6/4 mark.
Fil Dariane won around here last time and has chances also.
Back When You`re Ready 8pts at 5.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+40pts)Just a great ride,jumped well and was strong at the finish.
Monthly Total+121.50pts
Running Total+345.25pts
430 Newcastle-Rovaniemi heads the market and looks vulnerable to me.Its down in trip again to the shortest distance its ever ran over,the trainer has just a 4% strike rate here in recent times and has no track experience,add Jamie Spencer on top and I wouldnt want to be on it.
Take it on with Ventura Lightning,who ran well here on both starts and appears here 13Ibs lower than when a close up 5th in a group race at this track, in June.
Back Ventura Lightning 6pts at 8.0 at Bet365-Won(+66pts*BOG)Lifted home by Tony Hamilton with the fav toiling back in third.Nice drift too.
500 Newcastle-Venturous looks to have a fair bit going for it here.
Its in form,the jockey is 1/1 on it while its last 3 starts at this track read 1st-2nd-1st.
Its 3w-0p-6r in fields of 7 or less and is a proven winner in the grade.
Ornate would worry me if it got a solo upfront but Royal Birth is probably the biggest danger.
Back Venturous 16pts at 3.5 at Bet365-Won(+36pts)Perfect pace scenario and perfect ride.
310 Wetherby-This is a decent race for the grade but Commit Or Quit looks the value to me,despite coming down last time.
It posted its best rating over course and distance and is still fairly unexposed over fences.
Little Red Lion is progressive and respected while Seemingly So has a rating from last season that puts it bang there.
Ecossais is up in class and will need to find more.
Back Commit Or Quit 7pts at 6.5 at Betvictor/Skybet-2nd(-7pts)Backed into 10/3 and ran a great race.Definitely capable of winning again.(DT+95pts)
Monthly Total+81.5pts
Running Total+305.25pts
220 Hereford-Volcano looks like it needs further than this particularly after a 11Ib rise for winning last time.
Orrisdale is lightly raced but not sure the drop in trip will suit whilst it looks the perfect trip for Flagrant Delitiep.
This horse has only had 3 runs over fences and each has seen it improve.It likes to sit handy which suits around this track,interestingly the jockey has only ridden in 9 races here in the last 2 years and won on 4 of them.
Back Flagrant Delitiep 20pts at 2.875-Won(+37.5pts)Great round of jumping throughout.
615 Wolverhampton-Lihou drops in grade and its last 4 runs in this grade read 1st-2nd-3rd-1st.
Its been in good form and should run well.
Verne Castle is handicapped to win and ran well 7 days ago but its 2 runs at this track saw it run below par.
Back Lihou 13pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-Won(+39pts)A much needed double.(DT+76.5pts)
240 Exeter-Eclair Surf produced a rating on its second chase start ,last time that suggests its got around 10Ibs in hand,if it runs its race.
Its encouraging its won here over hurdles and this lightly raced horse should have plenty more to come.
Theres no doubt Venitia Williams will have Brianstorm ,turning up fit and well but this horse was pretty inconsistent the last time we saw it while Francky Du Berlais is consistent but clearly beatable.
Flinck represents last years winning stable and it could improve.
Back Eclair Surf 12pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-4th(-12pts)In front 3 out,looked like it didnt get home.Very disappointing that it didnt.
Monthly total -90pts
Running Total+133.75pts
345 Wincanton-Its yet to win but Jackson Hill made a good start to its chasing career,when racing over further and this drop in trip will suit.
It looks value as there should be a decent pace to run at.
Molineaux generally runs its race and its ratings make it the one to beat.
Back Jackson Hill 5pts at 13.0 at 888sport-Won(+60pts)Very odd race but they went off very hard and the extra stamina came into play.
357 Kempton-Malaya hasnt run in a class 3 handicap for 2 years and should appreciate the drop in grade.
The booking of top claimer Kevin Brogan catches my eye and the 7Ibs off could be vital.
Chti Balko posted a good rating last time and it would have a great chance on that but it seems to like Heavy ground/Haydock combination and is 0w-0p-3r going right handed.
Breffniboy continues to defy the handicapper but surely is up against it here so Fransham looks the main danger.
Back Malaya 8pts at 5.5 at Hills-UP(-8pts)Travelled into it but very one paced when it mattered.
350 Chepstow-Recently,Whiteoak Fleur`s form has moved up a level,with it posted very progressive figures the last twice.
That last run suggests its still got a fair bit in hand and with lots of form over further.You would hope to see have made plenty of use of.
There has been money for handicap debutant Poniente but if the selection runs its race then will need to improve.
Back Whiteoak Fleur 20pts at 2.75 at Bet365/Boylesports-UP(-20pts)Jumped violently right which ruined any chance.
105 Lingfield-One of the unexposed horses may prove too strong but ElGhazwani`s record of 6 wins from 7 starts over this course and distance cannot be ignored.
It looks the value to me with Make it Rain heading the dangers
Back El Ghazwani 7pts at 6.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-7pts)Very weak in the betting and offered nothing(DT+25pts)
1220 Lingfield-Opportunites are very thin on the ground at the moment with all the abandonments but this jumpers bumpers looks a decent opportunity for Mister Burbidge.
It has a significant edge in that it races around this trip regularly in flat races and goes well on this surface.its only finished out of the first 3 once in its last 7 runs here.
Theres enough juice in its price to warrant an interest.
If it was a jumps race then Rose Of Aghaboe would go very well but the surface is an unknown,its stallion`s progeny are 0 from 24 on polytrack.
Back Mister Burbidge 16pts at 4.0 at Various Bookies-4th(-16pts)Jockey got in a complete mess.Absolutely terrible start to the year.
258 Ffos Las-Miss Jeanne Moon has only had 5 runs and if handling the ground then it should go close here.
Its gradually improving and has a bit in hand on my ratings.
Memphis Bell was in great form last time we saw it ,however its now back from a break and although track and ground hold no fears for it,my figures suggest it needs to improve again.
Lily The Pink is now 12Ibs higher than its last winning mark,so looks vulnerable.
Back Miss Jeanne Moon 3pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies
328 Ffos Las-BallyBreen has an interesting profile.
It may be its not the same animal but is 0w-0p-8r during October to December,so some below par runs this season could be forgiven while its 4w-2p-7r during January and February.
Its 3 from 8 on heavy ground and is 4 from 7 around this trip ,so conditions are fine and a record of 3w-1p-7r in fields of 10 runners or more suggests a better run can be expected.
Don Herbager is an obvious danger.
Back BallyBreen 1pt at 19.0 at Paddys/Betfair-Meeting Abandoned
155 Fakenham-This season,Miss Zip appears to have been either running over too far,too higher class or going the wrong way round.
So back at its best trip,in a class where its won its only race over fences and is also going back left handed.
The trainer has a 33% strike rate here and it could hold a class edge.
Episode ran well last time over this course and distance but its inconsistent,so it remains to be seen if it can back that up and similar comments apply to Achy Breaky Heart.
Back Miss Zip 10pts at 5.0 at Hills-Pulled UP(-10pts)And on it goes...sounding like a broken record,backed into 7/4 but made a bad error early on and was pulled up.
Monthly Total-87pts
Running Total+136.75pts
1235 Southwell-Social City is on a roll after winning its last four races,including its last two here.
Track form is always so vital and this progressive animal can go in again.
Quel Destin heads the market,as it could be decently handicapped based on its hurdling exploits,however no fibresand form and with a sire that isnt prolific here either(6% strikerate).
The prices look the wrong way round to me.
Back Social City 5pts at 2.75 at William Hill.-UP(-20pts)Probably one race too many for this horse.Backed into evens as well but well below par.
205 Ayr-Evander is progressive and could be too good but it may get taken on upfront and the lack of heavy ground form would make me wary.
Flowery should go well although its rising up the weights without winning while Clan Legend is now off a career high mark at the age of 11.
Jonniesofa has conditions in his favour and wont be far away but at a price,I think Charmant is value here.
It drops 2 grades after contesting two grade 1`s this season ,Brian Hughes is 4 from 9 on it,its 3w-0p-6r in class 3 races and its 1/1 over these fences and its back on itd last winning mark,so a return to form would not be a massive surprise.
Back Charmant 1pt at 9.0 at Bet365/888sport-Meeting Abandoned
225 Sandown-I would definitey have the prices of Metier and Galice Macalo closer together and the latter looks value to me.
Both are progressive but I like the proven course and class form of Galice Macalo.
Back Galice Macalo 13pts at 3.75 at Bet365-UP(-13pts)Far too keen and dropped away.
335 Sandown-Guard Your Dreams makes its handicap debut and although its progressive,it has very little in hand of its mark on my ratings and im keen to take it on.
Friend Or Foe has gone up 13Ibs for winning last time plus its up in class and it looks vulnerable.
The Pink`n looks better on good ground and its 10Ibs higher than its last winning mark,so this looks a fair opportunity for Monsieur Lecoq.
Its been running in France or over fences or in a higher grade but its form figures in this class on soft ground and they read 1st-1st,including this race 2 years ago.
Its last run in handicap company ,it came 2nd to a horse that is now rated 22Ibs higher.
It must go close.
Back Monsieur Lecoq 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-3rd(-12pts)Never got involved.
410 Wolverhampton-Fair Star has only had 4 runs and each run has seen it progress on my ratings.
Its only had 1 run over this trip and I would have it around the 6/4 mark.
Lord Of The Alps is also lightly raced but has no track form and im surprised to see a claimer booked.
Back Fair Star 16pts at 3.25 Paddy/Betvictor-2nd(-16pts)
540 Wolverhampton-So much deadwood in this and I like the class dropper Michelle Strogoff.
Its a triple course winner and has only ever had 1 run in this grade and is now 22Ibs lower than its last winning mark.With a nice draw to boot,if it can just run its race then it should take this.
Ascot Week is 3w-1p-7r in this grade but is 0w-0p-9r around this trip.Revolutionary Man has been in decent form but it may be better at shorter and it ran a shocker on its only start here.
Back Michelle Strogoff 10pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-10pts)Another day of well acked horses faiing to deliver.(DT-51pts)
120 Musselburgh-After 2 spins over the big obstacles,it looks like that plan has been shelved for the time being for Elf De Re and it reverts back to hurdles where it is still lightly raced and looked progressive,the last time we saw it over them.
This horse likes to handy which is vital around here and with the trainers horses running well,it looks a bit overpriced.
Sebastopol drops in class and rates an obvious danger if it stays the extra distance.
Anything Paul Nicholls sends up here has to be noted and Accomplice is unexposed but doesnt look well handicapped on my figures.
Back Elf De Re 6pts at 8.0 at Hills/Bet365-UP(-6pts)
230 Musseburgh-Brotherly Company to my eye,looks like it needs a trip,on decent ground and on a sharp track.It gets all this here and I expect it to run very well.
Its finished 1st and 2nd in both chase starts here and has only had 6 runs for its current trainer,so there could be more to come.
Oscar Ceremony is in good form and rates the main danger but is 0w-1p-6r in fields of 9 or more.
Eagle Ridge won last time but is 0w-2p-12r in this class,so look vulnerable while Shanroe Street hasnt won for nearly 3 years.
Back Brotherly Company 9pts at 5.0 at Skybet/Betvictor/Bet365-Non Runner(DT-6pts)
