105 Musselburgh-I just feel that Bocciani is too big a price not to have a bit on.Ive got it right there with the principals-Blenheim Brook,NiceoneFrankie and Swift Arrow but its at a much bigger price.So from a complete value viewpoint it gets the vote.
Back Bocciani 6pts at 11.0-Won(+60pts)Great start to the year!
220 Catterick-Brave Spartacus should win this providing it can stay on its feet.Its clear top rated and still improving while also a course and distance winner.
Back Brave Spartacus 20pts at 3.0-Won(Not Matched)Absolutely hosed up but the price didnt quite get matched.
405 Wolverhampton-This is a good race with several in form horses.Angelic Upstart is a consistent sort that appears to be overpriced according to my ratings.
Back Angelic Upstart 6pts at 8.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-6pts)Ran a solid race but just gave way late on
215 Musselburgh-Seveal with a chance here including Exotic Man,Everaard,E Street Boy,Angel Sun and Definite Appeal.Local Present has been in decent form but has a bit to find on ratings and its ratings on soft ground should mean its very vulnerable.If not matched I would leave this in running for a bit as Aiden Colemans quiet riding style often means it looks like its going better than it actually is.
Lay Local Present 30pts 6.0-UP(+30pts)Was matched after 2 fences.(DT+84pts)
Days total minus commission+79.80pts
Running Total+4711.71pts
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
31st December
240 Uttoxeter-Only 4 runners but i dont give Sawpit Supreme(0/6 after a break) or Molko Jack(0/5 in December,0wins-1place-13runs in fields of 0-9) much chance.Chestnut Ben probably has the slightly more convincing profile but Anay Turge has the better ratings and as its the bigger price,its the call
Back Anay Turge 15pts at 3.35-Won(+35.25pts)Nice end to the year.
330 Lingfield-Storm Runner is running well and will run its race but its never won above class 6 level and looks very short to me here.The fact that Yankee Storm is quite prominent in the betting is a worry as they are a gambling stable but it has no record fresh(0/8) and the trip is a doubt.Chrissycross is another whos running fairly well but again struggles in this class(0w-0p-11runs).This all brings me Ellie in the Pink,who run well last time over a trip too far,is 2w-0p-6r in fields of 9 or less and is a touch of value.
Back Ellie in the Pink 9pts at 6.6-NON RUNNER
*Thanks for following this year*
Days total minus commission+33.48pts
Monthly Total+494.10pts
Running Total+4631.91pts
Month Analysis(42 win bets/14 winners) Strike rate 33% (7 Lay bets/6 winners) Strike Rate 85%
Years Profit/Loss +2028.92pts
Back Anay Turge 15pts at 3.35-Won(+35.25pts)Nice end to the year.
330 Lingfield-Storm Runner is running well and will run its race but its never won above class 6 level and looks very short to me here.The fact that Yankee Storm is quite prominent in the betting is a worry as they are a gambling stable but it has no record fresh(0/8) and the trip is a doubt.Chrissycross is another whos running fairly well but again struggles in this class(0w-0p-11runs).This all brings me Ellie in the Pink,who run well last time over a trip too far,is 2w-0p-6r in fields of 9 or less and is a touch of value.
Back Ellie in the Pink 9pts at 6.6-NON RUNNER
*Thanks for following this year*
Days total minus commission+33.48pts
Monthly Total+494.10pts
Running Total+4631.91pts
Month Analysis(42 win bets/14 winners) Strike rate 33% (7 Lay bets/6 winners) Strike Rate 85%
Years Profit/Loss +2028.92pts
30th December
210 Lingfield-This is a good little race where the improving 3yo Hometown Glory looks a bit overpriced.Its just top rated and is very much unexposed over this trip while boasting 2wins-1place-3runs on an All Weather surface.The biggest danger for me is George Guru whos unbeaten in fields of 9 or less(2/2) and is 2w-1p-4runs at this track.
Back Hometown Glory 8pts at 6.0-4th(-8pts)Beat the book again but the well supported winner was allowed to do its own thing in front and didnt get pegged back.
255 Taunton-Rigadin De Beauchene ran well when a selection on the blog last time and it should run well again.From a pure ratings perspective,it has to be the selection at the prices but a win record of 1/18 means i wouldnt put anyone off laying this back in running as it tends to jump and travel well.If Fine Parchment can stay on its feet,it will run well but the biggest danger is Deireadh Re,whos still fairly unexposed.Honest John has won its last 2 races but has 10Ibs to find on ratings.
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365,Ladbrokes & William Hill-Non runner
Lay Honest John 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Fine Parchment didnt deserve to get nutted right on the line after a fine performance/(DT+22pts)
Days total minus commission+20.9pts
Monthly Total+481.52pts
Running Total+4598.43pts
Back Hometown Glory 8pts at 6.0-4th(-8pts)Beat the book again but the well supported winner was allowed to do its own thing in front and didnt get pegged back.
255 Taunton-Rigadin De Beauchene ran well when a selection on the blog last time and it should run well again.From a pure ratings perspective,it has to be the selection at the prices but a win record of 1/18 means i wouldnt put anyone off laying this back in running as it tends to jump and travel well.If Fine Parchment can stay on its feet,it will run well but the biggest danger is Deireadh Re,whos still fairly unexposed.Honest John has won its last 2 races but has 10Ibs to find on ratings.
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365,Ladbrokes & William Hill-Non runner
Lay Honest John 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Fine Parchment didnt deserve to get nutted right on the line after a fine performance/(DT+22pts)
Days total minus commission+20.9pts
Monthly Total+481.52pts
Running Total+4598.43pts
29th December
325 Doncaster-Blackwater King is the obvious starting point and it must go well but at a much bigger price,I like Renoyr,who is top rated on its final run in Ireland but has now joined Malcolm Jeffersons yard who has had 4 winners from his last 10 runners.No surprise to see this shorten and run a big race.
Back Renoyr 10pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5) at Bet365-Won(+80pts)Actually drifted before the money came on track.Doubt you will see a more confidently ridden winner.The only thing is why didnt i do an exacta when I knew who the 2 main principles were?
225 Doncaster-I was going to lay Sixty Something but im not certain its current progress will tail off yet,so i will split stakes on Firebird Flyer and Who Owns Me who are both improving.Barafundle is the fav but its profile suggests it runs its best races fresh,so it may not come on much for its comeback run.
Back Firebird Flyer 8.5pts at 6.4 and Who Owns Me 9pts at 6.0
2pt exacta on both horses -3rd/4th(-19.5pts)Disappointing result as Sixty Something was never competitive and the 2 selections were right there 3 out.(DT+60.5pts)
3.0 Doncaster-Only got slightly matched on Lie Forrit,so im hoping for a drift but this horse loves big fields(10-15runners 5wins-2places-15runs),it only wins between November and February and on soft ground(5wins-1place-8runs).Doubts about lots of these but Triptico is the big danger.
Back Lie Forrit 6pts at 9.0
2pt exacta Lie Forrit and Triptico-UP(-8pts)Probably the end of the exactas.Lie Forrit was never going(DT-52.5pts)
210 Newbury-Pete the feat is improving fast since joining Charlie Longsdon and is already clear top rated without any further progression.Throw in a excellent record on heavy ground(3w-2p-7r) and its a very solid fav.
Back Pete the Feat 14pts at 3.65-Won(1 non runner +33pts)Absolutely tanked along and never looked like losing.(DT+85.5pts)
150 Doncaster-Late selection as im surprised Buxom has drifted but it has and is now at a very big price.
Back Buxom 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)Dont know the reason for the drift but this ran a shocker!(DT+65.5pts)
Days total minus commission+65.28pts
Monthly Total+460.62pts
Running Total+4577.53pts
Back Renoyr 10pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5) at Bet365-Won(+80pts)Actually drifted before the money came on track.Doubt you will see a more confidently ridden winner.The only thing is why didnt i do an exacta when I knew who the 2 main principles were?
225 Doncaster-I was going to lay Sixty Something but im not certain its current progress will tail off yet,so i will split stakes on Firebird Flyer and Who Owns Me who are both improving.Barafundle is the fav but its profile suggests it runs its best races fresh,so it may not come on much for its comeback run.
Back Firebird Flyer 8.5pts at 6.4 and Who Owns Me 9pts at 6.0
2pt exacta on both horses -3rd/4th(-19.5pts)Disappointing result as Sixty Something was never competitive and the 2 selections were right there 3 out.(DT+60.5pts)
3.0 Doncaster-Only got slightly matched on Lie Forrit,so im hoping for a drift but this horse loves big fields(10-15runners 5wins-2places-15runs),it only wins between November and February and on soft ground(5wins-1place-8runs).Doubts about lots of these but Triptico is the big danger.
Back Lie Forrit 6pts at 9.0
2pt exacta Lie Forrit and Triptico-UP(-8pts)Probably the end of the exactas.Lie Forrit was never going(DT-52.5pts)
210 Newbury-Pete the feat is improving fast since joining Charlie Longsdon and is already clear top rated without any further progression.Throw in a excellent record on heavy ground(3w-2p-7r) and its a very solid fav.
Back Pete the Feat 14pts at 3.65-Won(1 non runner +33pts)Absolutely tanked along and never looked like losing.(DT+85.5pts)
150 Doncaster-Late selection as im surprised Buxom has drifted but it has and is now at a very big price.
Back Buxom 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)Dont know the reason for the drift but this ran a shocker!(DT+65.5pts)
Days total minus commission+65.28pts
Monthly Total+460.62pts
Running Total+4577.53pts
28th December
120 Catterick-Form figures this season of 54PU and Avenging Ace is fav.This isnt a strong race though so im very reluctant to lay it.Amroth Bay will run well but Noble Witness is top rated and has ran well once on soft ground.Its a big price if the ground doesnt prove a problem.
Back Noble Witness 10pts at 8.0 at bet365(Accept 5.0)-Won(+57pts)Avenging Ace was a non runner but this was still well backed and jumped fantastic out of that ground to grind it out.
1.0 Lingfield-Derfenna Art is the solid one here but with a few potential improvers lurking,i dont feel the price is big enough to back but i cant have Whingeing Willie where it is in the market.It needs to improve to win this and as already mentioned there are improvers namely Duke of Destiny(only 4 runs and stepping up in trip) Holy Roman Warrior(Moved to a top stable) and Whispering Warrior(1st run in a handicap)
Lay Whingeing Willie 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)This was a good call,Derfenna Art despite being very weak in the betting,ran really well but the money came for the unexposed Whispering Warrior.(DT+87pts)
Days total minus commission+85.5pts
Monthly Total+395.34pts
Running Total+4512.25pts
Back Noble Witness 10pts at 8.0 at bet365(Accept 5.0)-Won(+57pts)Avenging Ace was a non runner but this was still well backed and jumped fantastic out of that ground to grind it out.
1.0 Lingfield-Derfenna Art is the solid one here but with a few potential improvers lurking,i dont feel the price is big enough to back but i cant have Whingeing Willie where it is in the market.It needs to improve to win this and as already mentioned there are improvers namely Duke of Destiny(only 4 runs and stepping up in trip) Holy Roman Warrior(Moved to a top stable) and Whispering Warrior(1st run in a handicap)
Lay Whingeing Willie 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)This was a good call,Derfenna Art despite being very weak in the betting,ran really well but the money came for the unexposed Whispering Warrior.(DT+87pts)
Days total minus commission+85.5pts
Monthly Total+395.34pts
Running Total+4512.25pts
27th December
1215 Lingfield-2 horse race and theres no doubt Drawnfromthepast(a winner for the blog last time) is a massive player but there is nothing between it and Beauty Pageant on my ratings.There shouldnt be such a difference in the prices.
Back Beauty Pageant 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)
315 Kempon-Taking on Henderson/Geraghty isnt normally the greatest idea but surely this horse is only near the front of the market because of connections.It was a good hurdler but in 4 runs over fences its got loads to find.It last showed any top form back in 2010 and clearly seems to be not the same horse these days.Brackloon High,Mister Hyde,Our Bomber Harris and Sizing Santiago are very tough opponents even if it was.
Lay Spirit River 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+11.87pts
Monthly Total+309.84pts
Running Total|+4426.75pts
Back Beauty Pageant 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)
315 Kempon-Taking on Henderson/Geraghty isnt normally the greatest idea but surely this horse is only near the front of the market because of connections.It was a good hurdler but in 4 runs over fences its got loads to find.It last showed any top form back in 2010 and clearly seems to be not the same horse these days.Brackloon High,Mister Hyde,Our Bomber Harris and Sizing Santiago are very tough opponents even if it was.
Lay Spirit River 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+11.87pts
Monthly Total+309.84pts
Running Total|+4426.75pts
26th December
145 Wetherby-Ballyolivers consistency should stand it in good stead here as a host of these have question marks against them.Junior should be a non runner here.
Back Ballyoliver 9.5pts at 5.2(10pts 4.5 after non runner)-3rd(-9.5pts)
220 Wetherby-Ski Sunday is clear top rated and handles heavy.
Back Ski Sunday 16pts at 3.25-Wasnt matched
325 Wincanton-2 horse race between Rody and Rouge et Blanc but the latters last rating is superior.Elenika should be a non runner here.
Back Rouge et Blanc 20pts at 3.25(20pts at 3.0 after non runner)-2nd(-20pts)
220 Ffos Las-Firebird Flyer holds strong claims with Benefit of Youth & Bravo Bravo next best
Back Firebird Flyer 20pts at 3.25-Won(+45pts)(DT+15.5pts)
255 Ffos las-Take over Sivola is respected but Frontier Spirit should go close here.Character Actor and Rouge et Blanc should be non runners here.
Back Frontier Spirit 8.5pts at 5.8(12pts at 4.0 after non runners)-Won(+36pts)Easiest winner of the day(DT+51.5pts)
330 Ffos las-The bottomless stamina of Mortimers Cross will be an asset here.Global Power should be a non runner.
Back Mortimers Cross 12pts at 5.5(11pts at 4.5 after non runner)-UP(-11pts)(DT+40.5pts)
235 Kempton-Good race that looks between Countryside Flame and Darlan.Cinders and Ashes has at least 10Ibs to find.
Lay Cinders and Ashes 30pts at 6.0-4th(+30pts)(DT+70.5pts)
210 Market Rasen-Theres a tiny query about the right handed track but other than that,Overyou is very consistent and will love the conditions.
Back Overyou 11.5pts at 4.5-2nd(-11.5pts)Looked the certain winner at the last.(DT+59pts)
155 Sedgefield-Soft Spoken Guy is better over further and Dunowen Point and River Dragon should be too good.Walser is unexposed.
Lay Soft Spoken Guy 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)(DT+89pts)
Days total minus commission+84.55pts
Monthly Total+297.97pts
Running Total+4414.88pts
Back Ballyoliver 9.5pts at 5.2(10pts 4.5 after non runner)-3rd(-9.5pts)
220 Wetherby-Ski Sunday is clear top rated and handles heavy.
Back Ski Sunday 16pts at 3.25-Wasnt matched
325 Wincanton-2 horse race between Rody and Rouge et Blanc but the latters last rating is superior.Elenika should be a non runner here.
Back Rouge et Blanc 20pts at 3.25(20pts at 3.0 after non runner)-2nd(-20pts)
220 Ffos Las-Firebird Flyer holds strong claims with Benefit of Youth & Bravo Bravo next best
Back Firebird Flyer 20pts at 3.25-Won(+45pts)(DT+15.5pts)
255 Ffos las-Take over Sivola is respected but Frontier Spirit should go close here.Character Actor and Rouge et Blanc should be non runners here.
Back Frontier Spirit 8.5pts at 5.8(12pts at 4.0 after non runners)-Won(+36pts)Easiest winner of the day(DT+51.5pts)
330 Ffos las-The bottomless stamina of Mortimers Cross will be an asset here.Global Power should be a non runner.
Back Mortimers Cross 12pts at 5.5(11pts at 4.5 after non runner)-UP(-11pts)(DT+40.5pts)
235 Kempton-Good race that looks between Countryside Flame and Darlan.Cinders and Ashes has at least 10Ibs to find.
Lay Cinders and Ashes 30pts at 6.0-4th(+30pts)(DT+70.5pts)
210 Market Rasen-Theres a tiny query about the right handed track but other than that,Overyou is very consistent and will love the conditions.
Back Overyou 11.5pts at 4.5-2nd(-11.5pts)Looked the certain winner at the last.(DT+59pts)
155 Sedgefield-Soft Spoken Guy is better over further and Dunowen Point and River Dragon should be too good.Walser is unexposed.
Lay Soft Spoken Guy 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)(DT+89pts)
Days total minus commission+84.55pts
Monthly Total+297.97pts
Running Total+4414.88pts
22nd December
215 Haydock-Good race and although Merry King is very much respected,Im going to go for Douglas Julian,who looks inconsistent but appears to have a very clear pattern in its profile.2/3 in December,when returning to the track after 8 to 14 days(4 from 4) and on heavy ground 5 out 7.If there is 1 non runner than that only increases its chance as its 6win-0places-9races in fields of 9 or less.
Back Douglas Julian 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5)-UP(-7pts)
250 Haydock-Desert Cry makes the market here,it may well improve on its handicap debut but ive got it over a stone behind my top rated horse.That horse is Doctor David,who was a very good horse 2 seasons ago before getting injured and is now getting back to where it once was.It drops in grade today into a class 3(4wins-1place-8runs) and back at its fav track(3wins-1place-5runs).Diamond Frontier is the danger on my ratings and I will(Ive promised myself i would start doing this)include it in a forecast.
Back Doctor David 8pts at 7.0(Accept 5.5)
Back Doctor David and Diamond Frontier in a 1pt exacta-UP(-9pts)
315 Wolverhampton-Fairyinthewind has a chance but shouldnt be fav on my ratings,its 0/3 at Wolverhampton,i much prefer Knowe Head(2wins-0place-3runs)in field sof 9 or less,The Moongoose and Strike Force.
Lay Fairyinthewind 30pts at 3.75-Non runner(DT-16pts)
Monthly Total+213.42pts
Running Total+4330.33pts
Back Douglas Julian 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.5)-UP(-7pts)
250 Haydock-Desert Cry makes the market here,it may well improve on its handicap debut but ive got it over a stone behind my top rated horse.That horse is Doctor David,who was a very good horse 2 seasons ago before getting injured and is now getting back to where it once was.It drops in grade today into a class 3(4wins-1place-8runs) and back at its fav track(3wins-1place-5runs).Diamond Frontier is the danger on my ratings and I will(Ive promised myself i would start doing this)include it in a forecast.
Back Doctor David 8pts at 7.0(Accept 5.5)
Back Doctor David and Diamond Frontier in a 1pt exacta-UP(-9pts)
315 Wolverhampton-Fairyinthewind has a chance but shouldnt be fav on my ratings,its 0/3 at Wolverhampton,i much prefer Knowe Head(2wins-0place-3runs)in field sof 9 or less,The Moongoose and Strike Force.
Lay Fairyinthewind 30pts at 3.75-Non runner(DT-16pts)
Monthly Total+213.42pts
Running Total+4330.33pts
21st December
305 Ascot-Farmer Matt is the value call in a race where obvious dangers are quite thin on the ground.The selection put up the top rated performance last time and looks to be improving.Spanish Arch is the main danger.
Back Farmer Matt 10pts at 5.0 at Bet365 & others-Won(+40pts)Well backed into 3.25 and won nicely
120 Ascot-Although a loser for the blog last time,I feel Be Definite has got the ratings and profile to win this.In 6 races in its lifetime at 2m2f or shorter on very soft ground,its 3 wins and 3 2nds.The unexposed Jumps Road and Mentalist are the clear dangers.
Back Be Definite 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-UP(-9pts)For such a consistent horse,this was an incredibly bad performance.was beaten after 2 fences.(DT+31pts)
450 Wolverhampton-Typical ,low grade sprint handicap.Im positive about the chances of Cri Na Mara,whos ran here 5 times and on 3 of those occasions,has put up its best ratings in its career to date.It has a poor record fresh ,so you can write off its last 2 runs and anything close to its 3 runs here last winter will see it go very close.
Back Cri Na Mara 8pts at 10.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-8pts)Nicely backed and showed good speed for 3f but weakened well out of it.(DT+23pts)
Days total minus commission+21.85pts)
Monthly Total+229.42pts
Running Total+4346.33pts
Back Farmer Matt 10pts at 5.0 at Bet365 & others-Won(+40pts)Well backed into 3.25 and won nicely
120 Ascot-Although a loser for the blog last time,I feel Be Definite has got the ratings and profile to win this.In 6 races in its lifetime at 2m2f or shorter on very soft ground,its 3 wins and 3 2nds.The unexposed Jumps Road and Mentalist are the clear dangers.
Back Be Definite 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-UP(-9pts)For such a consistent horse,this was an incredibly bad performance.was beaten after 2 fences.(DT+31pts)
450 Wolverhampton-Typical ,low grade sprint handicap.Im positive about the chances of Cri Na Mara,whos ran here 5 times and on 3 of those occasions,has put up its best ratings in its career to date.It has a poor record fresh ,so you can write off its last 2 runs and anything close to its 3 runs here last winter will see it go very close.
Back Cri Na Mara 8pts at 10.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-8pts)Nicely backed and showed good speed for 3f but weakened well out of it.(DT+23pts)
Days total minus commission+21.85pts)
Monthly Total+229.42pts
Running Total+4346.33pts
20th December
330 Lingfield-Noble Silk and Tartan Jura look strong here with Standpoint,Nave and Wildomar not out of either.Beat Route has won here but is better at Kempton,better at slightly shorter and better in a lower grade than this.
Lay Beat Route 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Was a massive drifter for a very profitable pre race trade-out if you so wished.
110 Towcester-Not a strong race and Thorncliffers steady progressive profile stands out.Its clear top rated and should go close.
Back Thorncliffer 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)A poor run
310 Towcester-Topaze Collonges will go well here but i have a slight doubt about it going right handed(0wins-1place-5runs).Kap West is 1w-1p-2runs at this track and has been very consistent and should be favourite.Noble Witness 0/10 on good to soft or softer.
Back Kap West 8.5pts at 5.7-Wasnt matched.(DT+10pts)
Days total minus commission+9.5pts
Monthly Total+207.57pts
Running Total+4324.48pts
Lay Beat Route 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)Was a massive drifter for a very profitable pre race trade-out if you so wished.
110 Towcester-Not a strong race and Thorncliffers steady progressive profile stands out.Its clear top rated and should go close.
Back Thorncliffer 20pts at 3.0-UP(-20pts)A poor run
310 Towcester-Topaze Collonges will go well here but i have a slight doubt about it going right handed(0wins-1place-5runs).Kap West is 1w-1p-2runs at this track and has been very consistent and should be favourite.Noble Witness 0/10 on good to soft or softer.
Back Kap West 8.5pts at 5.7-Wasnt matched.(DT+10pts)
Days total minus commission+9.5pts
Monthly Total+207.57pts
Running Total+4324.48pts
19th December
340 Lingfield-Finding it difficult to see why Final Delivery is near the front of the betting.Stamina doubt,inconsistent and well beaten on every run in class 5 company.English Summer,Strike Force and The Wonga Coup are all pretty solid against it.
Lay Final Delivery 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
250 Newbury-I like High Kite,Chartreux,Barbriggan and Fabolous Fred here while although Honest John has won its last 2 races,on my ratings it needs to step forward again.
Lay Honest John 30pts at 5.7-Non Runner(Really pleased I wasted so much time on these 2 races LOL)
225 Newbury-Looks a 2 horse race to me with Rose of the moon showing good current form and will be a tough opponent but I think the market has it and Diamond Harry the wrong way round.`Harry` has some ratings much better than these and should prevail.
Back Diamond Harry 16pts at 3.15-Won(+34.40pts)
Days total minus commission+32.80pts
Monthly Total+197.07pts
Running Total+4314.98pts
Lay Final Delivery 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
250 Newbury-I like High Kite,Chartreux,Barbriggan and Fabolous Fred here while although Honest John has won its last 2 races,on my ratings it needs to step forward again.
Lay Honest John 30pts at 5.7-Non Runner(Really pleased I wasted so much time on these 2 races LOL)
225 Newbury-Looks a 2 horse race to me with Rose of the moon showing good current form and will be a tough opponent but I think the market has it and Diamond Harry the wrong way round.`Harry` has some ratings much better than these and should prevail.
Back Diamond Harry 16pts at 3.15-Won(+34.40pts)
Days total minus commission+32.80pts
Monthly Total+197.07pts
Running Total+4314.98pts
18th January
140 Catterick-Fentara has put 2 good performances together on both of its chase starts and looks progressive.Its profile is also good(0-9 runners)2wins-2places-6runs (In December)1win-1place-3runs and on (Soft/Heavy)3wins-3places-8runs.Ballyoliver looks pretty short to me and on my ratings has to improve but it may well do so while ive got Brunswick Gold as the main danger.
Back Fentara 10pts at 6.0(Accept 5.0)-Fell(-10pts)Back into favouritism and staying on strongly to win the race when fell at the last
Back Fentara 10pts at 6.0(Accept 5.0)-Fell(-10pts)Back into favouritism and staying on strongly to win the race when fell at the last
16th December
250 Musselburgh-Im expecting the price of Morning Time to shorten up,the current 8/1 is massive value considering the rating it achieved on its chase debut plus the topspeed figure was also very good.Bhaltair is the obvious fav but is short enough.
Back Morning Time 12pts at 9.0 at William Hill(9pm Sat night) (Accept 4.5)-UP(-12pts)Jumped left throughout.
2.0 Carlisle-Overquest is a strong fav here and must go well but there appears to be a strong pattern in Do it for Dalkeys form that I feel makes it at least Overquests equal here.Its 3/6 at this track,4wins-1place-9runs between October and January and 2wins-1place-5runs after a break of 80days or more.However if you put that all together and look for any time its had all those circumstances together(like today) then its record stands at 1st/1st/1st.It has to be backed.
Back Do it for Dalkey 12pts at 5.0(Accept 4.3)-few non runners Revised 20pts at 3.5-2nd(-20pts)Got down to 1.5 in running for a profitable trade out when looking the winner 2 out
310 Hereford-Always been one of my lucky tracks and on its last raceday,it would be nice to bow out with a winner.Doubleoilntrouble is quite progressive as a chaser and can get the better of Royale Knight.
Back Doubleoilntrouble 16pts at 3.35-2nd(-16pts)Frustrating day(DT-48pts)
Monthly Total+164.27pts
Running Total+4282.18pts
Back Morning Time 12pts at 9.0 at William Hill(9pm Sat night) (Accept 4.5)-UP(-12pts)Jumped left throughout.
2.0 Carlisle-Overquest is a strong fav here and must go well but there appears to be a strong pattern in Do it for Dalkeys form that I feel makes it at least Overquests equal here.Its 3/6 at this track,4wins-1place-9runs between October and January and 2wins-1place-5runs after a break of 80days or more.However if you put that all together and look for any time its had all those circumstances together(like today) then its record stands at 1st/1st/1st.It has to be backed.
Back Do it for Dalkey 12pts at 5.0(Accept 4.3)-few non runners Revised 20pts at 3.5-2nd(-20pts)Got down to 1.5 in running for a profitable trade out when looking the winner 2 out
310 Hereford-Always been one of my lucky tracks and on its last raceday,it would be nice to bow out with a winner.Doubleoilntrouble is quite progressive as a chaser and can get the better of Royale Knight.
Back Doubleoilntrouble 16pts at 3.35-2nd(-16pts)Frustrating day(DT-48pts)
Monthly Total+164.27pts
Running Total+4282.18pts
15th December
255 Lingfield-Hopefully this meeting will pass the inspection as I quite like the chances of Rigadin De Beauchene.Providing its jumping holds up its clear top rated with a solid 1win-2places-4runs on heavy ground.Well Refreshed and Nodebateaboutit look the dangers.
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 15pts at 4.5 (Accept 4.0)at Bet365 or Betvictor-2nd(-15pts)Ran a great race,really should start thinking about putting the dangers in a forecast with the selection.This paid £56.
120 Cheltenham-Garynella is impossible to assess and the market is positive about it at the moment,that could be a problem but Oh Crick has got lots in its favour and is top rated on its last run.Shooters Wood is improving but has got it to prove on the ground.
Back Oh Crick 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-PU(-9pts)(DT-24pts)
135 Doncaster-Meetings Man is such a big price,it has to be backed here.It achieved a good rating last tine and a excellent topspeed figure.Its quite a competitve race but it should be nearer the 5/2 mark for me.
Back Meeting Man 10pts at 9.6(Accept 6.0)-Non Runner
Monthly Total+212.27pts
Running Total+4330.18pts
Back Rigadin De Beauchene 15pts at 4.5 (Accept 4.0)at Bet365 or Betvictor-2nd(-15pts)Ran a great race,really should start thinking about putting the dangers in a forecast with the selection.This paid £56.
120 Cheltenham-Garynella is impossible to assess and the market is positive about it at the moment,that could be a problem but Oh Crick has got lots in its favour and is top rated on its last run.Shooters Wood is improving but has got it to prove on the ground.
Back Oh Crick 9pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-PU(-9pts)(DT-24pts)
135 Doncaster-Meetings Man is such a big price,it has to be backed here.It achieved a good rating last tine and a excellent topspeed figure.Its quite a competitve race but it should be nearer the 5/2 mark for me.
Back Meeting Man 10pts at 9.6(Accept 6.0)-Non Runner
Monthly Total+212.27pts
Running Total+4330.18pts
14th December
155 Cheltenham-I like the chances of Bradley here,who is clear top rated on its last run.Added to that there are no negatives in its profile,In fields of 9 or less(2wins-1place-4runs) and at this track(2wins-2places-6runs) and it will love the forecasdt rain,It looks sure to run well with Quartz De Thaix and Midnight Chase following it home.Becauseicouldntsee should be nearer a 12/1 chance on my ratings and im happy to take it on.
Back Bradley 15pts at 4.3(Accept 4.0)-5th and Lay Becauseicouldntsee 30pts at 6.0-PU(+15pts)Bradley put in a sloppy jumping performance and that meant it couldnt ever quite get into it while BecauseIcouldntsee ran as expected.
Back Bradley 15pts at 4.3(Accept 4.0)-5th and Lay Becauseicouldntsee 30pts at 6.0-PU(+15pts)Bradley put in a sloppy jumping performance and that meant it couldnt ever quite get into it while BecauseIcouldntsee ran as expected.
12th December
140 Leicester-Oscar Hill looks very strong here with conditions to suit.Its clear top rated,2/2 in class 5 races and 3/5 racing right handed.Not til Monday looks the danger.
Back Oscar Hill 25pts at 3.0
210 Leicester-Pretty competitve race but Nom De Guerre looks a bit of value.Top rated on its last run,1win-1place-3runs at this track and Darryl Jacob has ridden it the both times its won.
Back Nom De Guerre 8pts at 7.4
Meeting Abandoned
Back Oscar Hill 25pts at 3.0
210 Leicester-Pretty competitve race but Nom De Guerre looks a bit of value.Top rated on its last run,1win-1place-3runs at this track and Darryl Jacob has ridden it the both times its won.
Back Nom De Guerre 8pts at 7.4
Meeting Abandoned
10th December
210 Lingfield-Although not proven at this track,Viewpoint looks a bit of value after a really good run last time.John Gosdens Hill Street is morning fav and obviously could be anything but it does make the market.Robin Hoods Bay looks a far more obvious danger.
Back View Point 9pts at 6.4(Accept 5.7)-Won(+48.6pts)Won with a bit in hand
2.0 Fakenham-Frontier Spirit won this race last year and has obviously been teed up for it again.It ran well on its seasonal debut when just weakening late over a trip too far and back at this specialist track where its finished 1st and 2nd in its 2 starts,it looks sure to run well.Camden and Cross of Honour are the dangers.
Back Frontier Spirit 10pts at 4.5-2nd(-10pts)So frustrating to be collared just 10 yards from the post.It must have traded very low in running.Swap the jockeys over and we would have won,im certain of that.(DT+38.6pts)
Days total minus commission+36.67pts
Monthly Total+221.27pts
Running Total+4339.18pts
Back View Point 9pts at 6.4(Accept 5.7)-Won(+48.6pts)Won with a bit in hand
2.0 Fakenham-Frontier Spirit won this race last year and has obviously been teed up for it again.It ran well on its seasonal debut when just weakening late over a trip too far and back at this specialist track where its finished 1st and 2nd in its 2 starts,it looks sure to run well.Camden and Cross of Honour are the dangers.
Back Frontier Spirit 10pts at 4.5-2nd(-10pts)So frustrating to be collared just 10 yards from the post.It must have traded very low in running.Swap the jockeys over and we would have won,im certain of that.(DT+38.6pts)
Days total minus commission+36.67pts
Monthly Total+221.27pts
Running Total+4339.18pts
9th December
240 Warwick-I can see this trip really suited Mission Complete,whos slowly improving over fences.Loves soft ground(2wins-1place-4runs) and only wins in small fields(3w-3-10r).Reblis and Ten Fires are much respected.Jolly Boys Outing has lots to prove after a break and on this ground.
Back Mission Complete 10pts at 5.0-Won(NRs revised price 4.7) & Lay Jolly Boys Outing 30pts at 6.0-UP(+67pts)
1220 Lingfield-This is a really poor race and most of these find winning difficult if not impossible.Brandywell Boy has won plenty of races down the years and returned to form last time and loves this track.Anything close to that last run wins this with jockey Silvestre De Sousa 33% when riding for this yard.
Back Brandywell Boy 14pts at 4.3(Accept 3.9)-4th(-14pts)(DT+53pts)
120 Lingfield-Quite a competitive claimer with Faithful Ruler,Onewayoranother,Sir George,Aciano and Gunner Will all coming out higher than Conducting on my ratings,that looks much too short to me.
Lay Conducting 30pts at 5.7-UP(+30pts)(DT+83pts)
Days total minus commission+78.85pts
Monthly Total+184.60pts
Running Total+4302.51pts
Back Mission Complete 10pts at 5.0-Won(NRs revised price 4.7) & Lay Jolly Boys Outing 30pts at 6.0-UP(+67pts)
1220 Lingfield-This is a really poor race and most of these find winning difficult if not impossible.Brandywell Boy has won plenty of races down the years and returned to form last time and loves this track.Anything close to that last run wins this with jockey Silvestre De Sousa 33% when riding for this yard.
Back Brandywell Boy 14pts at 4.3(Accept 3.9)-4th(-14pts)(DT+53pts)
120 Lingfield-Quite a competitive claimer with Faithful Ruler,Onewayoranother,Sir George,Aciano and Gunner Will all coming out higher than Conducting on my ratings,that looks much too short to me.
Lay Conducting 30pts at 5.7-UP(+30pts)(DT+83pts)
Days total minus commission+78.85pts
Monthly Total+184.60pts
Running Total+4302.51pts
8th December
315 Chepstow-Noble Legend is a decent price on Friday evening for a progressive chaser that will handle the conditions.Theres a couple who may improve on what theyve done so far but it would be no surprise if the selection improved again
Back Noble Legend 10pts at 4.5 at bet365(Friday 8pm)-2nd(-10pts)Ran a gallant race
320 Aintree-I wanted to see if there was any overnight nibbles for Little Josh and there has been,therefore I think this horse will run a big race today.It has a good record after a break of 80 days or more(2wins-1place-4runs),in fields of 9 or less(5w-1p-10r) and on soft/heavy ground(5w-0p-6r).
Back Little Josh 11pts at 6.6(Accept 4.5)-Won(+61.6pts)
145 Wetherby-Lease Lend is very strong here and must run well with Rossinis Dancer following it home.Prosseco is a much better horse at Ayr(0/17 elsewhere) and ive got it rated behind the 2 mentioned anyway.
Lay Prosseco 30pts at 4.0-Won(-90pts)The weakness in the betting of Rossinis Dancer worried me & i traded out for a small profit but we will count it as a loser.(DT-38.4pts)
Monthly Total+105.75pts
Running Total+4223.66pts
Back Noble Legend 10pts at 4.5 at bet365(Friday 8pm)-2nd(-10pts)Ran a gallant race
320 Aintree-I wanted to see if there was any overnight nibbles for Little Josh and there has been,therefore I think this horse will run a big race today.It has a good record after a break of 80 days or more(2wins-1place-4runs),in fields of 9 or less(5w-1p-10r) and on soft/heavy ground(5w-0p-6r).
Back Little Josh 11pts at 6.6(Accept 4.5)-Won(+61.6pts)
145 Wetherby-Lease Lend is very strong here and must run well with Rossinis Dancer following it home.Prosseco is a much better horse at Ayr(0/17 elsewhere) and ive got it rated behind the 2 mentioned anyway.
Lay Prosseco 30pts at 4.0-Won(-90pts)The weakness in the betting of Rossinis Dancer worried me & i traded out for a small profit but we will count it as a loser.(DT-38.4pts)
Monthly Total+105.75pts
Running Total+4223.66pts
6th December
240 Wincanton-There is a slight nagging doubt about the drop in distance but the sheer consistency of Quaddick Lake means it should run its race and if it does,it must be bang there.
Back Quaddick Lake 10pts 5.0-Won(+40pts)Got an absolute peach of a ride from Nick Schofield.
Days total minus commission+38pts
Monthly Total+144.15pts
Running Total+4262.06pts
Back Quaddick Lake 10pts 5.0-Won(+40pts)Got an absolute peach of a ride from Nick Schofield.
Days total minus commission+38pts
Monthly Total+144.15pts
Running Total+4262.06pts
5th December
210 Hereford-The early 3/1 about Drumshambo looks decent value.Its only had 3 runs over fences and each one has seen its ratings improve.Its profile suggest plenty in its favour as well,1win-2places-3runs in December,3w-3p-8r in fields of 9 or less.3w-1p-5r on soft ground and in class 4 races its 4w-1p-7r.Bendant is quite difficult to assess and may be the main danger.
Back Drumshambo 15pts at 4.0 at Ladbrokes(Tuesday evening 8pm)(Accept 3.5)
-Won(+45pts)Really well backed and did the job
1230 Lingfield-Sonko is 3/3 at the track and has to run well but ive got Drawnfromthepast top rated.It barely runs a bad race is 4wins-2places-9runs in class 6 races.Lujeanie has a bit to find on my ratings and is 0wins-3places-10runs over 5furlongs.
Back Drawnfromthepast 12pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75)-Won & Lujeanie 30pts at 5.5-2nd(+72pts)
Lujeanie never looked like winning and it was a great day!(DT+117pts)
Days Total minus commission+111.15pts
Monthly Total+106.15pts
Running Total+4224.06pts
Back Drumshambo 15pts at 4.0 at Ladbrokes(Tuesday evening 8pm)(Accept 3.5)
-Won(+45pts)Really well backed and did the job
1230 Lingfield-Sonko is 3/3 at the track and has to run well but ive got Drawnfromthepast top rated.It barely runs a bad race is 4wins-2places-9runs in class 6 races.Lujeanie has a bit to find on my ratings and is 0wins-3places-10runs over 5furlongs.
Back Drawnfromthepast 12pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75)-Won & Lujeanie 30pts at 5.5-2nd(+72pts)
Lujeanie never looked like winning and it was a great day!(DT+117pts)
Days Total minus commission+111.15pts
Monthly Total+106.15pts
Running Total+4224.06pts
3rd December
310 Plumpton-This is wide open with a few holding a chance.Dushy Valley must run well while im a little surprised to see Pretty Penny shorten up overnight.From a purely value point of view,I will have a little on Laughing Game,who has posted some consistent ratings on its last 6 runs.
Back Laughing Game 5pts at 11.0(Accept 9.0)-3rd(-5pts)Another consistent run but just couldnt go with the front 2 from 3 out.
Back Laughing Game 5pts at 11.0(Accept 9.0)-3rd(-5pts)Another consistent run but just couldnt go with the front 2 from 3 out.
2nd December
255 Leicester-Slowly but surely,Thorncliffer is gradually improving and could take this weak event if it continues its progress.Forever my Friend is the danger.
Back Thorncliffer 6pts at 10.0(Accept 9.0)
Back Thorncliffer 6pts at 10.0(Accept 9.0)
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