300 Newbury-Geordie Des Champs makes its handicap debut here and although this is a tough race,it looks to have been given a decent opening mark.
Each rating posted so far has shown an upwards progression and any continuation of that would make it a tough opponent here.
Kings Bandit is another with potential but has failed to get round in 2 of its last 4 starts.
On its best ratings from last year,Lac Fontana would hold chances while Boite is improving but needs to find more progression to trouble the best of these.
Back Geordie Des Champs 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies-2nd(-12pts)Hammered into 5/4 but once more couldnt get it done.
250 Uttoxeter-Mumgo`s Debut has been pretty consistent since returning after a wind operation but its last 3 ratings have shown some deteoration and it remains to be seen how it copes with the drop back to 2 miles.
Rock On Rocky has only had 3 starts over fences and will like the conditions,its the right price however.
At a price,the one I like is Emperor Commodos,who ran really well on its chasing debut last time,posting a good rating and solid speed figure.
I have got it a much shorter price than what is available and it has to be backed.
Back Emperor Commodos 7pts at 9.0 at Various bookies-UP(-7pts)A poor run to finish the year(DT-19pts)
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
30th December
If it survives the morning inspection then Haydock offers the closest I came to a selection with Spanish Fleet offering reasonable value but it has so far proved better on a right handed track and this is also a rise in class.On pure ratings it has a good chance albeit against a few unexposed sorts over fences.All in all the price isnt quite big enough to tempt me in.
Anything above 7/1 would be good value.
FOOTBALL
(English Premiership)
(Friday) Hull v Everton
Back Everton 15pts at evens with Betfred/Paddys/Stan James/Betway/Betfair
(Saturday) Liverpool v Man City
Back Liverpool 11pts at 11/8 at Various bookies
Anything above 7/1 would be good value.
FOOTBALL
(English Premiership)
(Friday) Hull v Everton
Back Everton 15pts at evens with Betfred/Paddys/Stan James/Betway/Betfair
(Saturday) Liverpool v Man City
Back Liverpool 11pts at 11/8 at Various bookies
29th December
240 Doncaster-This is a drop in class for Ami Desbois and this horse looks to be improving since the tongue tie went on.
Ideally,it would prefer a drop of rain but other than that,it appears slightly overpriced to me.
Ten Sixty won well on its seasonal debut and could prove better over this trip but its a tight enough price considering it needs to improve for it.
Parish Business represents a yard that do well here(27% strike rate) and it would hold chances on its run 2 starts back but it disappointed last time.
Back Ami Desbois 9pts at 5.5 at Hills/Betvictor-Non Runner
I thought Gold Opera(140 Kelso) and Tred Softly(1245 Southwell) would go close but the prices arent big enough to tempt me in
Ideally,it would prefer a drop of rain but other than that,it appears slightly overpriced to me.
Ten Sixty won well on its seasonal debut and could prove better over this trip but its a tight enough price considering it needs to improve for it.
Parish Business represents a yard that do well here(27% strike rate) and it would hold chances on its run 2 starts back but it disappointed last time.
Back Ami Desbois 9pts at 5.5 at Hills/Betvictor-Non Runner
I thought Gold Opera(140 Kelso) and Tred Softly(1245 Southwell) would go close but the prices arent big enough to tempt me in
27th December
315 Chepstow-Aso is the right favourite and the most likely winner,as it drops in class for a stable that have won 3 of the last 4 runnings but as ever with me,theres has to be value in the price and there isnt with that particular horse.
Grey Gold has won first time out the last 2 seasons ,so could go well on its seasonal debut but ive got it a better horse at shorter than this.
Ultragold looks to have it do here at a trip further than it prefers while Tornado in Milan is in fine fettle at present but needs to find a jolt of improvement from somewhere.
Drumlee Sunset is lightly raced over fences and improving but it has nearly a stone to find with Aso on what its done so far,on my figures,so will clearly need to come on again.
The value lies with On Tour,who ran poorly last time over possibly a trip too far but significantly in a big field.Its much better in small field like this(7 runners or less 3w-1p-4r) ,is 5w-2p-10r when returning to the track within 60 days and a repeat of its run 2 starts back would see it going very close here.
Back On Tour 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Halved in price but although given too much to do,it wasnt good enough.
330 Kempton-On just its second start for Colin Tizzard,Bally Longford produced a career best ratiing,in a much better race at Cheltenham than this,last time out,only getting worn down late on over slightly further.
The drop back in trip will surely suit but also going right handed will surely bring about more improvement(R/H 5w-5p-15r compared to 0/9 L/H).I expect it to go close.
Go Conquer fell last time but was improving before that,it rates the biggest danger although More Bucks is progressing and is a slightly bigger price than ive got it.
Back Bally Longford 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies-UP(-12pts)This has ran way below form in keeping with this months tips in general.Pretty poor stuff(DT-18pts)
Grey Gold has won first time out the last 2 seasons ,so could go well on its seasonal debut but ive got it a better horse at shorter than this.
Ultragold looks to have it do here at a trip further than it prefers while Tornado in Milan is in fine fettle at present but needs to find a jolt of improvement from somewhere.
Drumlee Sunset is lightly raced over fences and improving but it has nearly a stone to find with Aso on what its done so far,on my figures,so will clearly need to come on again.
The value lies with On Tour,who ran poorly last time over possibly a trip too far but significantly in a big field.Its much better in small field like this(7 runners or less 3w-1p-4r) ,is 5w-2p-10r when returning to the track within 60 days and a repeat of its run 2 starts back would see it going very close here.
Back On Tour 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Halved in price but although given too much to do,it wasnt good enough.
330 Kempton-On just its second start for Colin Tizzard,Bally Longford produced a career best ratiing,in a much better race at Cheltenham than this,last time out,only getting worn down late on over slightly further.
The drop back in trip will surely suit but also going right handed will surely bring about more improvement(R/H 5w-5p-15r compared to 0/9 L/H).I expect it to go close.
Go Conquer fell last time but was improving before that,it rates the biggest danger although More Bucks is progressing and is a slightly bigger price than ive got it.
Back Bally Longford 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies-UP(-12pts)This has ran way below form in keeping with this months tips in general.Pretty poor stuff(DT-18pts)
26th December
140 Sedgefield-This looks pretty weak and Kilronan Castle is a fair enough favourite,after showing improvement on its second chase start,if you finish in front of it then you are probably winning this.
Im hoping that will be Attimo,whos ran better than its form figures suggest,of late.
Its now dropped to a mark 2Ibs below its last winning mark and is back over a course and distance that its posted its best ratings before(Finished 1st and 2nd in 2 races).
Its record over other trips is 0w-0p-13r,so this is clearly its distance and its at its best returned to the track quickly(15 day or less 2w-0-4r compared to 0w-2p-12r 16days+)
Its twice the price ive got it,so it has to be the value with the added cheekpieces another angle.
Uno Valoroso has got the ratings to get involved but is returning after a absence,however its main problem is surely this trip of 2m4f (Record over 2m3f + 0w-1p-11r)
Sergeant Pink arrives here after nearly 500 days since we last saw it,its record after any sort of absence means you can put a line through it(31 days+ 0w-1p-18r)
Back Attimo 9pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Sky/Paddys-Won(+40.5pts)Well backed and won nicely under a well judged ride.
415 Wolves-From a ratings perspective,Mythmaker has to be the call here.
It posted a career best last time and this is a drop in grade,anything close to that run would win this.
It does obviously have to prove itself as good on this Tapeta surface as the polytrack but with a 3w-1p-5r record in fields of 7 or less,im happy to find out here at the prices.
Ive actually got Lightcameraaction as the outsider of this field and although it has drifted slightly since xmas eve,its still far too short for a horse that has never won beyond 6 furlongs.
Dougan is probably the main danger as its fairly rock solid and goes very well here.
Back Mythmaker 10pts at 5.0 at Corals-2nd(-10pts)Money talked as Spring Loaded was punted from 7/1 into 5/4.
240 Kempton-Apparently this isnt The New One`s track? Yet its form figures here read 1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st.
Its top rated on its latest run and could easily get a solo from the front as all the others appear to want to be held up.Ive got it around the even money mark,so although it has shortened a little,its still the wrong price.
Yanworth is very consistent but drops in trip,it needs to find a few pounds on my figures to beat the selection and this is its toughest task to date.
My Tent or Yours probably has its ideal conditions and will no doubt loom up 2 out but it looks more and more a bridle horse and it will need to be tough to get past The New One.
Back The New One 20pts at 15/8 at various bookies-2nd(-20pts)Team tactics by the connections of Yanworth got this beat.Harried throughout by their other horse.
110 Market Rasen-Groomed looks a dodgy favourite to me here and it makes the market.
Its become fairly inconsistent and probably wont back up its latest run but that rating still leaves it 7Ibs to find on the best of these.
No Ceiling is very consistent and is 3w-2p-7r since being fitted with a hood but it has no form of any note going this way round,so it remains to be seen how it handles it.
I like Un Anjou,whos top of my figures on its latest run behind a progressive horse that followed up just a few days ago.
Its 2w-0p-4r during December and represents a yard that have a 31% strike rate here in recent times.
Back Un Anjou 7pts at 6.5 at Corals-3rd(-7pts)Ran a good race but not good enough.Nice lay on Groomed though.
120 Huntingdon-There are a couple of lightly raced animals on show here with Elkstone and Viking Mistress both unexposed over fences but neither achieved what Knights Reward did on its chase debut and hopefully with improvement likely,it should go close.
It was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler according to its trainer and will like the small field(7 runners or less 2w-0p-4r compared to 8 runners+ 0w-0p-9r).
Caprice D`Anglais is well in under a penalty but it only ran 7 days ago,so this is a fairly quick turnaround.
Back Knights Reward 14pts at 4.0 at Betway-Pulled UP(-14pts)Very weak in the betting and ran a lifeless race.(DT-10.5pts)
Monthly Total-53pts
Running Total+8676.27pts
Im hoping that will be Attimo,whos ran better than its form figures suggest,of late.
Its now dropped to a mark 2Ibs below its last winning mark and is back over a course and distance that its posted its best ratings before(Finished 1st and 2nd in 2 races).
Its record over other trips is 0w-0p-13r,so this is clearly its distance and its at its best returned to the track quickly(15 day or less 2w-0-4r compared to 0w-2p-12r 16days+)
Its twice the price ive got it,so it has to be the value with the added cheekpieces another angle.
Uno Valoroso has got the ratings to get involved but is returning after a absence,however its main problem is surely this trip of 2m4f (Record over 2m3f + 0w-1p-11r)
Sergeant Pink arrives here after nearly 500 days since we last saw it,its record after any sort of absence means you can put a line through it(31 days+ 0w-1p-18r)
Back Attimo 9pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Sky/Paddys-Won(+40.5pts)Well backed and won nicely under a well judged ride.
415 Wolves-From a ratings perspective,Mythmaker has to be the call here.
It posted a career best last time and this is a drop in grade,anything close to that run would win this.
It does obviously have to prove itself as good on this Tapeta surface as the polytrack but with a 3w-1p-5r record in fields of 7 or less,im happy to find out here at the prices.
Ive actually got Lightcameraaction as the outsider of this field and although it has drifted slightly since xmas eve,its still far too short for a horse that has never won beyond 6 furlongs.
Dougan is probably the main danger as its fairly rock solid and goes very well here.
Back Mythmaker 10pts at 5.0 at Corals-2nd(-10pts)Money talked as Spring Loaded was punted from 7/1 into 5/4.
240 Kempton-Apparently this isnt The New One`s track? Yet its form figures here read 1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st.
Its top rated on its latest run and could easily get a solo from the front as all the others appear to want to be held up.Ive got it around the even money mark,so although it has shortened a little,its still the wrong price.
Yanworth is very consistent but drops in trip,it needs to find a few pounds on my figures to beat the selection and this is its toughest task to date.
My Tent or Yours probably has its ideal conditions and will no doubt loom up 2 out but it looks more and more a bridle horse and it will need to be tough to get past The New One.
Back The New One 20pts at 15/8 at various bookies-2nd(-20pts)Team tactics by the connections of Yanworth got this beat.Harried throughout by their other horse.
110 Market Rasen-Groomed looks a dodgy favourite to me here and it makes the market.
Its become fairly inconsistent and probably wont back up its latest run but that rating still leaves it 7Ibs to find on the best of these.
No Ceiling is very consistent and is 3w-2p-7r since being fitted with a hood but it has no form of any note going this way round,so it remains to be seen how it handles it.
I like Un Anjou,whos top of my figures on its latest run behind a progressive horse that followed up just a few days ago.
Its 2w-0p-4r during December and represents a yard that have a 31% strike rate here in recent times.
Back Un Anjou 7pts at 6.5 at Corals-3rd(-7pts)Ran a good race but not good enough.Nice lay on Groomed though.
120 Huntingdon-There are a couple of lightly raced animals on show here with Elkstone and Viking Mistress both unexposed over fences but neither achieved what Knights Reward did on its chase debut and hopefully with improvement likely,it should go close.
It was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler according to its trainer and will like the small field(7 runners or less 2w-0p-4r compared to 8 runners+ 0w-0p-9r).
Caprice D`Anglais is well in under a penalty but it only ran 7 days ago,so this is a fairly quick turnaround.
Back Knights Reward 14pts at 4.0 at Betway-Pulled UP(-14pts)Very weak in the betting and ran a lifeless race.(DT-10.5pts)
Monthly Total-53pts
Running Total+8676.27pts
22nd December
400 Wolverhampton-My figures suggest(despite being beaten last time) that General Hazard is improving fast and this drop in trip,after being worn down over further last time,should be ideal.
Its already proven around here and has a decent draw.
It should be favourite.
Cadeaux Magnifique is finding it hard to get its head in front and this extra yardage needs to bring about some improvement.
The Third Man has been posting solid ratings but will need the selection to underperform to win this.
New Agenda is progressive but has a few pounds to find on my ratings.
Back General Hazard 8pts at 6.0 at bet365-4th(-8pts)Bundles of money for it but received a really poor ride and you could see it happening 4 furlongs out.Defintely one that got away.
I will be back on Christmas Day evening for all Boxing Days selections.
Its already proven around here and has a decent draw.
It should be favourite.
Cadeaux Magnifique is finding it hard to get its head in front and this extra yardage needs to bring about some improvement.
The Third Man has been posting solid ratings but will need the selection to underperform to win this.
New Agenda is progressive but has a few pounds to find on my ratings.
Back General Hazard 8pts at 6.0 at bet365-4th(-8pts)Bundles of money for it but received a really poor ride and you could see it happening 4 furlongs out.Defintely one that got away.
I will be back on Christmas Day evening for all Boxing Days selections.
21st December
135 Ludlow-This is a good race and several have chances.
Venitia Williams has trained the winner of this race 5 times in the last 10 years,so her Gardefort has to be respected but its failed to complete in its last 2 chase starts.
Baltimore Rock has come in for early support and could possibly hold a class edge if it can match its best hurdling ratings,over fences but theres little juice left in its price.
Going Concern has a very patchy record but was running well until coming down late on last time,however it is 0w-0p-3r at this track and is passed over on that score.
The value lies with Colins Brother,who only won a 4 runner race last time but was very well supported and won with tons in hand.
The rating and speed figure suggest it has more to come after only 4 chase starts and I would have it at least half its current price.
Back Colins Brother 7pts at 6.5 at betbright-Won(+37.5pts)Looked a big price 4 out and did get a bit of luck with a faller but came home very strong and won nicely in the end.
Monthly Total-34.5pts
Running Total+8694.77pts
Venitia Williams has trained the winner of this race 5 times in the last 10 years,so her Gardefort has to be respected but its failed to complete in its last 2 chase starts.
Baltimore Rock has come in for early support and could possibly hold a class edge if it can match its best hurdling ratings,over fences but theres little juice left in its price.
Going Concern has a very patchy record but was running well until coming down late on last time,however it is 0w-0p-3r at this track and is passed over on that score.
The value lies with Colins Brother,who only won a 4 runner race last time but was very well supported and won with tons in hand.
The rating and speed figure suggest it has more to come after only 4 chase starts and I would have it at least half its current price.
Back Colins Brother 7pts at 6.5 at betbright-Won(+37.5pts)Looked a big price 4 out and did get a bit of luck with a faller but came home very strong and won nicely in the end.
Monthly Total-34.5pts
Running Total+8694.77pts
20th December
1230 Southwell-It doesnt come much weaker than this race.
Recent form is pretty thin on the ground and there are doubts about most.
The current favourite is Jessica Jo,who was progressing fairly well until a poor run last time but this horse hasnt ever raced here and with the sire just 4% with its progeny at this track then I cant see it winning.
Luv U Lucky is 0w-1p-8r at his track and returns after an absence so despite having some fairly awful recent form figures to its name,I can see this going to Master Of Song.
This horse cannot string a decent run to its name on any of the other AW tracks(0w-0p-11r) but when it races here,it comes alive(Southwell 5w-7p-21r),therefore I think we can disregard its last 3 starts at Newcastle and Chelmsford)
It races off a mark 4Ibs lower than it last won off(Its last start at this track in Jan 2016).
It will be favourite by the off,im fairly certain.
Back Master Of Song 7pts at 7.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-5th(-7pts)
Recent form is pretty thin on the ground and there are doubts about most.
The current favourite is Jessica Jo,who was progressing fairly well until a poor run last time but this horse hasnt ever raced here and with the sire just 4% with its progeny at this track then I cant see it winning.
Luv U Lucky is 0w-1p-8r at his track and returns after an absence so despite having some fairly awful recent form figures to its name,I can see this going to Master Of Song.
This horse cannot string a decent run to its name on any of the other AW tracks(0w-0p-11r) but when it races here,it comes alive(Southwell 5w-7p-21r),therefore I think we can disregard its last 3 starts at Newcastle and Chelmsford)
It races off a mark 4Ibs lower than it last won off(Its last start at this track in Jan 2016).
It will be favourite by the off,im fairly certain.
Back Master Of Song 7pts at 7.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-5th(-7pts)
18th December
145 Fakenham-I can see Drumlee Lads chance but not at 7/4(7/2 in my tissue prices) and that makes for some value elsewhere.
Cody Wyoming represents a yard that have done well here in recent times and it just tops my ratings but although slightly bigger than my price,theres not enough value to get involved.
Shanroe Santos is unexposed and this yard are always to be feared around here but at the prices,Miami Present is just too big.
Its very lightly raced over fences and has ideal conditions here but its best 2 ratings were posted around this track over hurdles and if it takes to the chase track in the same way then it could easily outrun its odds.
Back Miami Present 4pts at 17.0 at various bookies-UP(-4pts)
FOOTBALL
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)-Lost(-15pts)Genoa were 3-1 up with 20 mins to play to bring up the final leg but lost 4-3,just about sums the month up.
Monthly Total-65pts
Running Total+8764.27pts
Cody Wyoming represents a yard that have done well here in recent times and it just tops my ratings but although slightly bigger than my price,theres not enough value to get involved.
Shanroe Santos is unexposed and this yard are always to be feared around here but at the prices,Miami Present is just too big.
Its very lightly raced over fences and has ideal conditions here but its best 2 ratings were posted around this track over hurdles and if it takes to the chase track in the same way then it could easily outrun its odds.
Back Miami Present 4pts at 17.0 at various bookies-UP(-4pts)
FOOTBALL
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)-Lost(-15pts)Genoa were 3-1 up with 20 mins to play to bring up the final leg but lost 4-3,just about sums the month up.
Monthly Total-65pts
Running Total+8764.27pts
17th December
125 Lingfield-Despite posting a career best last time out over 10 furlongs,Somethingthrilling is actually 2 from 3 over a mile and looks a force back against its own sex.
Bargain Buy is 2w-1p-3r at this track and is the clear danger,if the selection finishes in front of it then it really should win.
Back Somethingthrilling 13pts at 4.0 at Hills/Paddys-Won(+39pts)Easy victory.
235 Lingfield-Im surprised at the price of Threediamondrings here,its ran 2 good races the last twice,is 1w-1p-3r over this trip and 1w-1p-3r in this grade.
If it can get a fairly easy lead then it will run a big race.
Reckless wave is progressive and should appreciate the extra distance but its price is about right while Major Ben is still lightly raced but has to prove itself on polytrack and looks too short to me.
Back Threediamondrings 7pts at 8.5 at various bookies-2nd(-7pts)Ran really well with only the well supported fav proving too good.
255 Newcastle-This race revolves around Bun Doran who has only had the one run over fences and will surely improve,however despite that,I cant have it at the prices.
Boric is 2w-1p-5r at this track and isnt out of it while Final Assault would be a threat if finding last seasons best but the value has to be last years winner Bernardelli.
This horse has its ideal conditions and ran a fine race on its seasonal debut over 3 miles.
Despite having some decent form over that trip when its raced over todays trip of 2m4f and on its favoured soft/heavy ground then its form figures read 1st-1st-1st-1st.
Its also won here and is 2w-1p-4r during December.
It must run well.
Back Bernardelli 7pts at 7.5 at Paddys-UP(-7pts)It didnt run well!(-7pts)(DT+25pts)
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor-0-0(=pts)
Bargain Buy is 2w-1p-3r at this track and is the clear danger,if the selection finishes in front of it then it really should win.
Back Somethingthrilling 13pts at 4.0 at Hills/Paddys-Won(+39pts)Easy victory.
235 Lingfield-Im surprised at the price of Threediamondrings here,its ran 2 good races the last twice,is 1w-1p-3r over this trip and 1w-1p-3r in this grade.
If it can get a fairly easy lead then it will run a big race.
Reckless wave is progressive and should appreciate the extra distance but its price is about right while Major Ben is still lightly raced but has to prove itself on polytrack and looks too short to me.
Back Threediamondrings 7pts at 8.5 at various bookies-2nd(-7pts)Ran really well with only the well supported fav proving too good.
255 Newcastle-This race revolves around Bun Doran who has only had the one run over fences and will surely improve,however despite that,I cant have it at the prices.
Boric is 2w-1p-5r at this track and isnt out of it while Final Assault would be a threat if finding last seasons best but the value has to be last years winner Bernardelli.
This horse has its ideal conditions and ran a fine race on its seasonal debut over 3 miles.
Despite having some decent form over that trip when its raced over todays trip of 2m4f and on its favoured soft/heavy ground then its form figures read 1st-1st-1st-1st.
Its also won here and is 2w-1p-4r during December.
It must run well.
Back Bernardelli 7pts at 7.5 at Paddys-UP(-7pts)It didnt run well!(-7pts)(DT+25pts)
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor-0-0(=pts)
16th December
No Horses catch my eye but some football again...
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)
15th December
Yanmare should win the 140 at Towcester but I have missed the prices and wont be tipping it at 13/8.
and after watching the disgrace of a ride on Theo today,I wont be bothering with anything tomorrow.
and after watching the disgrace of a ride on Theo today,I wont be bothering with anything tomorrow.
14th December
640 Kempton-Tegara was progressing well until a bit below par last time but that possibly could be put down to the Tapeta surface at Newcastle.
Its clear top rated on its performance 2 starts back over this course and distance and with its sire boasting an impressive 50% strike rate here on the polytrack surface then I expect it to continue its upward curve.
The trainer has a 38% strike rate with his runners that go off favourite here.
Encore Moi and Palenville are the dangers but both lack the upside of the selection.
Back Tegara 14pts at 3.5 at Hills/Ladbrokes-Non Runner
250 Musselburgh-I always like the Irish to Uk angle with handicappers over the jumps and that makes Theo of interest here.
Most races are more competitive in Ireland and that can often mean a horse becomes well handicapped when they travel over the sea.
Either of Theo`s last 2 runs give it chances and Ive got it around the 3/1 mark.
Stoneham and Arthurs Secret are both consistent but also beatable,
Back Theo 6pts at 7.5 at Hills/Betfred-4th(-6pts)13/2 into 11/4 and never seen with a chance at any stage.What an awful month this has been.Got the market spot on as usual but received a joke of a ride.
Its clear top rated on its performance 2 starts back over this course and distance and with its sire boasting an impressive 50% strike rate here on the polytrack surface then I expect it to continue its upward curve.
The trainer has a 38% strike rate with his runners that go off favourite here.
Encore Moi and Palenville are the dangers but both lack the upside of the selection.
Back Tegara 14pts at 3.5 at Hills/Ladbrokes-Non Runner
250 Musselburgh-I always like the Irish to Uk angle with handicappers over the jumps and that makes Theo of interest here.
Most races are more competitive in Ireland and that can often mean a horse becomes well handicapped when they travel over the sea.
Either of Theo`s last 2 runs give it chances and Ive got it around the 3/1 mark.
Stoneham and Arthurs Secret are both consistent but also beatable,
Back Theo 6pts at 7.5 at Hills/Betfred-4th(-6pts)13/2 into 11/4 and never seen with a chance at any stage.What an awful month this has been.Got the market spot on as usual but received a joke of a ride.
13th December
230 Southwell-The recent form figures of Crosse Fire are very uninspiring but you just have to forget about this horses performances anywhere other than at this track.(Elsewhere 0w-1p-21r)
It now operates off a mark 10Ibs lower than its last winning mark and drops into a grade it rarely races in.
This horse also only wins between December and March(5w-3p-9r) compared to 0w-2p-22r at other times of the year.
If you take its runs at this track over 5 furlongs,its form figures read 1st-3rd-1st-3rd-1st-1st-3rd-5th-1st-2nd.
I cant believe this wont run well and id be amazed if there wasnt money for it.
Back Crosse Fire 7pts at 9.0 at Hills-UP(-7pts)For me ,this stunk.Big mover last night but weak all day today and then the inevitable...slowly away.Clearly wasnt off today.
It now operates off a mark 10Ibs lower than its last winning mark and drops into a grade it rarely races in.
This horse also only wins between December and March(5w-3p-9r) compared to 0w-2p-22r at other times of the year.
If you take its runs at this track over 5 furlongs,its form figures read 1st-3rd-1st-3rd-1st-1st-3rd-5th-1st-2nd.
I cant believe this wont run well and id be amazed if there wasnt money for it.
Back Crosse Fire 7pts at 9.0 at Hills-UP(-7pts)For me ,this stunk.Big mover last night but weak all day today and then the inevitable...slowly away.Clearly wasnt off today.
12th December
300 Plumpton-This is a desperate race,with recent form tough to find.
The majority of the field are very inconsistent but Bonds Conquest has produced solid runs on the 3 of its last 4 starts and that gets it the vote here.
Its latest effort gives it a better chance than the odds suggest and it should go well.
Goring Two has a rating from last year that is the best here but it pulls up more than it completes and possibly wants softer ground.
Tikkapick has chances but looks like it wants further and it could get outpaced around this tight track.
Back Bonds Conquest 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-3rd(-10pts)One of those you regret very early on.As slow as a boat and despite being up there,never looked like winning.
Monthly Total-58pts
Running Total+8771.27pts
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Shimba Hills(330 Plumpton) or Cadeau Magnifique(510 Wolves) but I wanted at least 3/1 on both before getting involved.
The majority of the field are very inconsistent but Bonds Conquest has produced solid runs on the 3 of its last 4 starts and that gets it the vote here.
Its latest effort gives it a better chance than the odds suggest and it should go well.
Goring Two has a rating from last year that is the best here but it pulls up more than it completes and possibly wants softer ground.
Tikkapick has chances but looks like it wants further and it could get outpaced around this tight track.
Back Bonds Conquest 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-3rd(-10pts)One of those you regret very early on.As slow as a boat and despite being up there,never looked like winning.
Monthly Total-58pts
Running Total+8771.27pts
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Shimba Hills(330 Plumpton) or Cadeau Magnifique(510 Wolves) but I wanted at least 3/1 on both before getting involved.
11th December
1215 Southwell-The Jugopolist has spent the majority of its chasing career in far better company than this and this is actually a drop in grade after it won well last time, when running from out of the handicap.
This is such a weak affair that the only thing that can stop it from winning is if the race comes too soon as its a whole stone clear on my ratings.I would want to see an aggressive ride from the front and that should find most of these out.
Midnight Jade goes well around here and is the main danger but it shouldnt be favourite.
Back The Jugopolist 13pts at 4.0 at Marathon Bet-4th(-13pts)
135 Carlisle-The most likely winner here is West of the Edge but theres little value in its price and although its ratings are good,it hasnt posted a decent speed figure yet and this is likely to be run at a decent clip with Scotswell and Basford Ben lining up.
Ballyben should run well for a yard with a 41% strike rate here but again its price is about right.
The value for me is Cyclop,who ran a fine race last time and now gets the services of a good 5Ib claimer onboard for the first time.
Its 2 from 5 going right handed and all its best runs have been when returned to the track within 30 days.
Back Cyclop 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)(DT-19pts)
This is such a weak affair that the only thing that can stop it from winning is if the race comes too soon as its a whole stone clear on my ratings.I would want to see an aggressive ride from the front and that should find most of these out.
Midnight Jade goes well around here and is the main danger but it shouldnt be favourite.
Back The Jugopolist 13pts at 4.0 at Marathon Bet-4th(-13pts)
135 Carlisle-The most likely winner here is West of the Edge but theres little value in its price and although its ratings are good,it hasnt posted a decent speed figure yet and this is likely to be run at a decent clip with Scotswell and Basford Ben lining up.
Ballyben should run well for a yard with a 41% strike rate here but again its price is about right.
The value for me is Cyclop,who ran a fine race last time and now gets the services of a good 5Ib claimer onboard for the first time.
Its 2 from 5 going right handed and all its best runs have been when returned to the track within 30 days.
Back Cyclop 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)(DT-19pts)
10th December
1150 Doncaster-There should be plenty of pace on here with Mercers Court,Katchenko,Wells De Lune and Always On The Run all liking to force the pace and that should suit a strong stayer that sits off the pace.
Hopefully that will be Kalane,who is dropping in class and trip.
This is actually the lowest grade is has run in over fences and it has the ratings(albeit over slightly further)to take this race.
Its 2w-1p-5r going left handed and with the ground ideal,im expecting a big run.
Shadows Lenthen is another that should be suited by the way the race is run and is 2 from 4 at this track.
Back Kalane 12pts at 4.3 at Bet365-Won(+40pts)Finally a winner and an easy one.
Monthly Total-29pts
Running Total+8800.27pts
Hopefully that will be Kalane,who is dropping in class and trip.
This is actually the lowest grade is has run in over fences and it has the ratings(albeit over slightly further)to take this race.
Its 2w-1p-5r going left handed and with the ground ideal,im expecting a big run.
Shadows Lenthen is another that should be suited by the way the race is run and is 2 from 4 at this track.
Back Kalane 12pts at 4.3 at Bet365-Won(+40pts)Finally a winner and an easy one.
Monthly Total-29pts
Running Total+8800.27pts
9th December
215 Doncaster-Its recent form has been a bit in and out but even so,im surprised at Settleoutofcourt`s price here.
Its tumbled down the weights and is now 13Ibs lower than when it won over just over a year ago.
It showed a bit more last tine out and that rating gives it a far better chance than the current odds suggest and the third placed horse has since come out and won.
It likes a small field(7 runners or less 5w-3p-16r) and this time of year(Nov/Dec 3w-2p-10r)
Its the clear value in this race.
Fort Worth is consistent and should run well but is 0w-4p-14r when its handicap mark is 121+ like today while Jac the Legend is another that should run well but appears here 14Ibs above its highest winning mark.
Back Settledoutofcourt 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Another hopeless tip!
I thought St Gregory would run well in the 325 at Doncaster but I wanted at least 6/1 before I got involved and that looks unlikely.
Its tumbled down the weights and is now 13Ibs lower than when it won over just over a year ago.
It showed a bit more last tine out and that rating gives it a far better chance than the current odds suggest and the third placed horse has since come out and won.
It likes a small field(7 runners or less 5w-3p-16r) and this time of year(Nov/Dec 3w-2p-10r)
Its the clear value in this race.
Fort Worth is consistent and should run well but is 0w-4p-14r when its handicap mark is 121+ like today while Jac the Legend is another that should run well but appears here 14Ibs above its highest winning mark.
Back Settledoutofcourt 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Another hopeless tip!
I thought St Gregory would run well in the 325 at Doncaster but I wanted at least 6/1 before I got involved and that looks unlikely.
8th December
1230 Taunton-On its first outing over 3 miles,That`s Gonna Sting posted a career best rating and that makes it stand out here.
It looks to still be improving and should take a bit of beating.
Culm Counsellor has won its last two but on my figures,it has over a stone to find with the selection.
Song of the Night is probably the main danger unless Yul Next improves for the step up in trip.
Back That`s Gonna Sting 14pts at 3.5 at Hills-UP(-14pts)Very strong in the betting but one paced in the straight.
220 Newcastle-The more rain the better for Notebook here.
All of its best ratings have come with plenty of cut and that looks assured here.
There are plenty of holes in its profile but the price compensates for that while the postives are a record of 2w-1p-5r during December and January plus hailing from a small stable that has a 27% strike rate here.
Annie Alain is the main danger in an open race.
Back Notebook 5pts at 15.0 at various bookies-UP(-5pts)(DT-19pts)
It looks to still be improving and should take a bit of beating.
Culm Counsellor has won its last two but on my figures,it has over a stone to find with the selection.
Song of the Night is probably the main danger unless Yul Next improves for the step up in trip.
Back That`s Gonna Sting 14pts at 3.5 at Hills-UP(-14pts)Very strong in the betting but one paced in the straight.
220 Newcastle-The more rain the better for Notebook here.
All of its best ratings have come with plenty of cut and that looks assured here.
There are plenty of holes in its profile but the price compensates for that while the postives are a record of 2w-1p-5r during December and January plus hailing from a small stable that has a 27% strike rate here.
Annie Alain is the main danger in an open race.
Back Notebook 5pts at 15.0 at various bookies-UP(-5pts)(DT-19pts)
6th December
100 Uttoxeter-Nick Williams does well at this track,with a 22% strike rate with all his runners but that improves to a tasty 43% if you just take his favs into account and that could easily be improved upon when Peruvian Bleu lines up here.
This horse has shown a steady improvement in its ratings and is clear top rated on its latest run.
Ive got this horse around the even money mark so the price on offer is good value.
Whispering Harry is better known as a chaser but is well treated over hurdles,whether its quick enough on this ground remains to be seen.
Fort Carson is 2w-1p-3r in this grade but is 11Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Back Peruvian Bleu 18pts at 15/8 at Betway-4th(-18pts)Apparently started very slowly,not that you could see it in the fog.Well backed beforehand and stayed on but far too much to do!
Poor start to the month
Monthly Total-63pts
Running Total+8766.27pts
This horse has shown a steady improvement in its ratings and is clear top rated on its latest run.
Ive got this horse around the even money mark so the price on offer is good value.
Whispering Harry is better known as a chaser but is well treated over hurdles,whether its quick enough on this ground remains to be seen.
Fort Carson is 2w-1p-3r in this grade but is 11Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Back Peruvian Bleu 18pts at 15/8 at Betway-4th(-18pts)Apparently started very slowly,not that you could see it in the fog.Well backed beforehand and stayed on but far too much to do!
Poor start to the month
Monthly Total-63pts
Running Total+8766.27pts
5th December
310 Ludlow-On its handicap debut last time,Presenting Berkley showed much improved form and that rating it posted then gives it a very strong chance in this weak race.
Its got one of the better jockeys on board and I would expect it to go close,if repeating that last run.
Double Court is very consistent,which is something that cant be said about most of its opponents but its also clearly beatable.
Marvellous Monty makes its handicap debut but returns after an absence.It has chances on the best of its previous efforts.
Back Presenting Berkley18pts at 15/8 at Corals/Betvictor-Meeting abandoned
Its got one of the better jockeys on board and I would expect it to go close,if repeating that last run.
Double Court is very consistent,which is something that cant be said about most of its opponents but its also clearly beatable.
Marvellous Monty makes its handicap debut but returns after an absence.It has chances on the best of its previous efforts.
Back Presenting Berkley18pts at 15/8 at Corals/Betvictor-Meeting abandoned
4th December
Demographic(1230) and Satanic Beat(130) should both run well at Huntingdon but neither price is quite big enough to tempt me in.
Hopefully this coming week will see my laptop finally fixed,so I can get going with the football again.
No selections
Hopefully this coming week will see my laptop finally fixed,so I can get going with the football again.
No selections
3rd December
300 Sandown-If Un De Sceaux turns up and produces its best then it will make them all go but on ground quicker than ideal and turning up after a long absence(Fell the last 2 seasons FTO),I think we can take it on.
Sire De Grugy has a fine record at this track(4w-2p-7r) and has actually won this race twice in the last 3 years.The quick return to the track is also a plus(14 days or less 6 wins out of 6)
Gods Own has chances but the trainer has just a 5% strike rate here but Ar Mad could be a danger as it was progressing well before an injury stopped its progress last season.
Back Sire De Grugy 12pts at 4.5 at Hills-2nd(-12pts)Looked to have it as it hit the front at the last but just got nutted near the line.
215 Chepstow-Zanstra produced a fine performance last time out,on just its second start over fences.
It stands out on my figures and with possible further improvement to come plus the services of Paddy Brennan for the first time(25% strike rate for the yard) then I would have it around the 7/4 mark.
Tornado in Milan has been a model of consistency but this ground is fast enough for it and its never been at its best around here.
My ratings suggest its got 9Ibs to find with the selection.
Atirelarigo is difficult to assess but has to be rated a danger given the connections while Allow Dallow has chances on my figures but is normally one to take on.
Back Zanstra 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Fell(-12pts)Well backed but came down when in contention at the 2nd last.(DT-24pts)
Sire De Grugy has a fine record at this track(4w-2p-7r) and has actually won this race twice in the last 3 years.The quick return to the track is also a plus(14 days or less 6 wins out of 6)
Gods Own has chances but the trainer has just a 5% strike rate here but Ar Mad could be a danger as it was progressing well before an injury stopped its progress last season.
Back Sire De Grugy 12pts at 4.5 at Hills-2nd(-12pts)Looked to have it as it hit the front at the last but just got nutted near the line.
215 Chepstow-Zanstra produced a fine performance last time out,on just its second start over fences.
It stands out on my figures and with possible further improvement to come plus the services of Paddy Brennan for the first time(25% strike rate for the yard) then I would have it around the 7/4 mark.
Tornado in Milan has been a model of consistency but this ground is fast enough for it and its never been at its best around here.
My ratings suggest its got 9Ibs to find with the selection.
Atirelarigo is difficult to assess but has to be rated a danger given the connections while Allow Dallow has chances on my figures but is normally one to take on.
Back Zanstra 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Fell(-12pts)Well backed but came down when in contention at the 2nd last.(DT-24pts)
2nd December
300 Sandown-Red Devil Star is unexposed over fences after just 2 starts and its latest run saw it post an improving rating.
With conditions ideal,im surprised it isnt favourite.
Although it hails from a small stable,they have a very good 28% strike rate when they have horses in the front 3 in the betting like this particular race.
Gores Island currently heads the market after a decent seasonal reappearance but it needs to better last seasons best if its to trouble the selection.
The main danger for me is Greywell Boy,who returns after over 500 days but makes its debut for the Harry Fry stable.Im sure it will turn up fit but whether its the same horse as before remains to be seen.If it is then its a big runner here.
Back Red Devil Star 12pts at 4.3 at Stan James-3rd(-12pts)Too many mistakes over the fences.
335 Sandown-Some improving types on show here but none appeal more than Major Mac.
Its only had 3 runs but stands out on my figures on its all the way win last time out.
That was over further but could actually prove better back in trip.It should be clear favourite.
That honour goes to Utility and although I respect the early money from this stable,its got to find some improvement if the selection runs its race.
Vivas and Vocaliser have place chances.
Back Major Mac 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-UP(-9pts)Tanked into the race but found nothing(DT-21pts)
With conditions ideal,im surprised it isnt favourite.
Although it hails from a small stable,they have a very good 28% strike rate when they have horses in the front 3 in the betting like this particular race.
Gores Island currently heads the market after a decent seasonal reappearance but it needs to better last seasons best if its to trouble the selection.
The main danger for me is Greywell Boy,who returns after over 500 days but makes its debut for the Harry Fry stable.Im sure it will turn up fit but whether its the same horse as before remains to be seen.If it is then its a big runner here.
Back Red Devil Star 12pts at 4.3 at Stan James-3rd(-12pts)Too many mistakes over the fences.
335 Sandown-Some improving types on show here but none appeal more than Major Mac.
Its only had 3 runs but stands out on my figures on its all the way win last time out.
That was over further but could actually prove better back in trip.It should be clear favourite.
That honour goes to Utility and although I respect the early money from this stable,its got to find some improvement if the selection runs its race.
Vivas and Vocaliser have place chances.
Back Major Mac 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-UP(-9pts)Tanked into the race but found nothing(DT-21pts)
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