31st October

310 Stratford-Listen Boy is the favourite here but looks a little vulnerable to me.0w-0p-3r after an absence of 80 days or more and 0w-2p-6r going left handed.Ive also got it needing to improve a few pounds as well on my ratings.

Danandy is difficult to assess accurately,it hails from a top stable but in its 3 runs so far over fences,it really hasnt achieved anything.

Desperate Dex goes very well fresh(80 days+ 4w-0p-9r) but is closing in on its 14th birthday and is still 17Ibs higher than its last winning mark.

Very Stylish has an awful record after an absence(80 days+0w-0p-7r) and also has stamina to prove over this trip.

The value looks to be the top rated Milo Milan,who can go well fresh.is 2w-1p-8r in fields of 9 or less,Likes a sharp track like this(2w-1p-6r) and its trainer is 3w-2p-8r in the last 28 days.

Back Milo Milan 9pts at 6.0 at Paddy Power-UP(-9pts)Never travelling or jumping.Probably the first one beat
Monthly Total+92.60pts
Running Total+5707.03pts

30th October

No selections

29th October

510 Wolverhampton-Providing the wide draw isnt too much of a problem then Electric Qatar should run well here after returning to form last time at this track(Form Figures around here of 2nd-7th-1st-1st).I would expect jockey George Baker to drop the horse in and hopefully weave through.
Jinker Noble hasnt had many runs this season and being quite fresh can be a big help at this time of year,however this horse still hasnt proved itself on polytrack.
Midnight Dream has to overcome an 146 day absence and the market will tell its tale while You`re the Boss is the other one in with a shout after a decent track debut last time.
Back Electric Qatar 9pts at 5.5 at Paddys-UP(-9pts)Really surprised to this horse rushed up and get involved in a speed duel.Had nothing left at the end.
Accept 5.0

610 Wolverhampton-Living the Life is a solid fav and should run well but 5/4 looks pretty short to me.
Queen Aggie is proven around here but needs to improve to trouble the favourite but the one that interests me is Ruwaiyan.This horse drops in trip here after taking a keen hold early on and not quite finishing off its races over longer trips but its always been bang there a furlong out.
The shorter distance could help it for a trainer with a 24% strike rate here.Also interestingly,Luke Morris(5wins from 18rides for the yard) takes the ride for the first time.In the last 2 weeks,this trainer has had 2 winners,both of which were Morris`s only rides for the yard during that period.
This horse may be a bit of value against the Favourite.
Back Ruwaiyan 6pts at 9.0 on Betfair -Won(+48pts Paid at 9.0 Best odds Guaranteed)Sometimes you just get it spot on.This horse hosed up! (DT+39pts)
Monthly Total+101.60pts
Running Total+5716.03pts

27th/28th October

No Selections

26th October

445 Chepstow-Really good race and I like Majala here.This horse goes well fresh and the trainer is in good form.Its 3w-0p-4r over this trip and 4w-2p-8r when racing on soft/heavy.Its favourite on my tissue.

The fact that it isnt is probably due to the trainers of the other fancied runners.Paul; Nicholls has Rebel Rebellion here,This horse also goes well fresh but is maybe a few pounds better going right handed rather than todays way round.(LH 1w-0p-8r  RH 4w-1p-6r)

Gary Moore`s Sire De Grugy has produced its best performances on a sound surface and while it does handle heavy,its ratings arent in the same class on this surface.

Back Majala 16pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-16pts)Ran well but Sire De Grugy proved me wrong on the ground and hosed up.

255 Newbury-For me,this is a 3 horse race.Nicholas Canyon should go well as an improving 3yo whos 2/2 on soft and 2/2 in October.

Quiz Mistress came back to form last time and has a chance on that and will like the ground but it is 0w-1p-6r when racing in group Company.

The class act is Prince Bishop,who looks a touch of value.Its just top rated and has a clear pattern in its profile.

It likes a small field(0-9 runners 2w-0p-3r) ,after a break(41 days+ 4w-1p-7r),over this trip(12f 3w-0p-5r) and around this time of year(Sept-Nov 4w-0p-5r).

It handled this ground in its younger days and must surely go close.

Back Prince Bishop 13pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-13pts)Pulled up with something obviously amiss(DT-29pts)

Accept 4.3

440 Newbury-Dusky Queen is respected here and is a solid fav but ive got Magic Destiny at a similar price on my tissue and this is defintely the value.4w-2p-10r in fields of 9 or less and 2w-1p-4r when racing on soft ground.

The drop in trip could suit Legal Lace but im not sure the soft ground will while Jubilante,isnt proven on the ground or over this trip.Its a surprise its so short in the betting.

Back Magic Destiny 9pts at 6.5 at Bet365-4th(-9pts)Legal Lace loved the ground and once again proved me wrong to complete a miserable day!(DT-38pts)

Accept 5.5

25th October

510 Newbury-Blessington is unexposed and hails from a big stable but im surprised to see it so short in the betting.It has every chance on my ratings but 3/1 would be a more realistic price.

Course and Distance winner Whipper Snapper isnt out of this as it drops back in trip and is proven on the soft ground.

The value has to be Jack Luey,whos joint top rated with the fav and is 4w-3p-10r in fields of 9 or less.This horse has yet to win over 6 furlongs on turf but has on the All Weather.Its possible the final furlong on this ground might be a bit too far but the price is big enough to justify an interest.

Back Jack Luey 5pts at 11.0 at various Bookies-UP(-5pts)Got the fav beaten but the ground was almost bottomless by the time of this race.

Monthly Total+100.60pts
Running Total+5715.03pts

24th October

910 Wolverhampton-Muthafar will be popular on its handicap debut from a big yard.It does need to improve though on my ratings and was beaten 8 lengths last time.Its sire is only 3/73 on the surface.

Take it on with Lyric Piece,whos top rated and its trainer is 23% with his horses here.

Back Lyric Piece 9pts at 6.0 at Ladbrokes-4th(-9pts)Another race where taking the fav on was correct but the selection wasnt good enough.Given every chance but looked a little short of pace

Accept 5.5

2.0 Southwell-Its hard to imagine a worse race than this.Cara Court came back to form last time when dropped in trip but its no certainty to repeat it and 3/1 is short enough.

Cloudy Dawn is next best but even its latest run puts it 7Ibs behind Cara Court while Inandover fell at the 1st last time,wont want any more rain and has never won.

I can see there being a turn up and will risk a little on Ballyvoneen,who has more letters than numbers in its form these day.However its dropped in class for the first time since it won its last race(6 runs ago),its 5w-1p-18r in fields of 9 or less.In this class 2w-1p-6r and over this trip 3w-1p-7r.

The price is so big it warrants an interest with those at the front of the market looking vulnerable.

Back Ballyvoneen 3pts at 18.0-4th(-3pts)Ran a great race and turning in looked like it may prevail(Touched 1.7 in running) but just weakened near the finish.(DT-12pts)

Accept 13.0

23rd October

445 Newmarket-This is a good little handicap in which Narmin seems to hold a better chance than its price suggest.It finished just behind Deglet Noor last time when the field spilt into 2 groups at Sandown and if the unexposed Deglet Noor improves again then it will tough to beat but Narmin has only had 5 runs herself and I doubt her trainer would take it on again if he didnt think it could beat it.

Bit surprised to see Cosseted as favourite as ive got it 5Ibs behind the 2 mentioned.

Back Narmin 7pts at 7.0-UP(-7pts)Poor run.The result was difficult to fathom

Accept 6.4

315 Worcester-Midnight Tuesday by all accounts,is a bit of a character but hopefully it will be on its best behaviour as it holds a solid chance on my ratings here.Top rated on its last run,it seems to handle most ground and it has won around here.

At its best Christopher Wren would have every chance but its only 0w-1p-5r going left handed.

South Stack has only had 1 run over fences but needs to step up a lot on that to take this and is 0w-2p-9r on galloping tracks like this and 0w-1p-7r going left handed.

Back Midnight Tuesday 14pts at 4.0 at Bet365-3rd(-14pts)Tanked along and looked like it may have everything in trouble coming into the straight(Touched 1.72) but looked like it turned in in when headed(DT-21pts)
Monthly Total117.60pts
Running Total+5732.03pts

22nd October

530 Lingfield-Kastini ran a cracker last time behind a Michael Stoute improver and this course and distance winner should run well here.This horse is still unexposed around this trip of 10/11 furlongs with a record of 1w-1p-3r and i feel it should be around the 2/1 mark.

Precision Five,although creeping up the weights,looks the main danger with a very good 3w-1p-4r record at this track.

Winslow Arizona looks very short to me,as although it was progressing on the all weather before a poor run on turf last time,Its still got to find around 10Ibs to trouble the 2 mentioned on my ratings.

Back Kastini 11pts at 4.3-2nd(-11pts)Looked the winner(Touched 1.3 in running) but got nutted 10 yards from the line 

21st October

No Selections

20th October

5.0 Kempton-Unless Alfraamsey or Able Deputy really step up on what theyve done so far over fences then this looks to lie between Cap Elorn and Gallox Bridge.

The former is on a roll and improving,Im not certain if it would handle lots of rain if it did come but it should run well although its the right price.

The value is Gallox Bridge,whos just top rated,its only had 4 runs over fences and handles most ground.Its 2w-1p-4r after an absence of 80 days and 2/2 in October.

Oh Crick 0w-0p-7r after 80 days break or more,I expect it to need this especially with an inexperienced jockey aboard

Back Gallox Bridge 9pts at 5.5 at Paddys/BetVictor-Won(+37pts*1 non runner)Called the market correctly as Cap Elorn drifted.
Monthly Total+149.60pts
Running Total+5764.03pts

19th October

220 Ascot-Maarek has an excellent record on soft ground(Form Figures of 1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st-4th-1st),is 2w-1p-4r in October,has won at this track and is 6w-2p-12r when returning to the track within 14 days or less.There are no negatives in its profile and it is a very solid favourite.

Jack Dexter is respected despite having a few pounds to find on my ratings.Its 5w-1p-6r on Soft/Heavy ground but its trainer is struggling for winners.

Mass Rally has a chance while Slade Power and Viztoria have to bounce back from below par runs last time.

Back Maarek 11pts at 4.3-UP(-11pts)Started Slowly and ran a shocker

405 Ascot-Cirrus Des Aigles has finished 1st and 2nd in this the last 2 years and comes here on the back of 2 wins.On my ratings however,its recent ratings are 12Ibs below its best last season and I make it a vulnerable favourite.

Farhh has an umblemished record fresh(80 days or more 4w-0p-4r) and is respected but there is a doubt about it on very soft ground.

The clear value for me is Mukhadram,whos been given a break of 84 days since its last run(Absence of 80 days or more 1w-1p-2r) and I expect it to come back to its best on a track where it was a good 2nd during the Royal meeting.

Back Mukhadram 4pts at 16.0-5th(-4pts)Fav was vulnerable and no surprise Farhh was the one to take advantage.The selection travelled well but couldnt go with them from 3 out(-15pts)

Accept 12.0

750 Wolverhampton-Dilgura is very unexposed and could be far better than these.The presence of Shane Kelly onboard it immediately puts me off though and I always prefer to see a horse do it around one of the All Weather tracks before believing they handle it.

The same cant be said about Burren View Lady,whos form figures at this track and over this trip are 1st-1st-1st.

This horse beat a progressive All Weather horse last time and I would expect it to be bang there at the death.

Back Burren View Lady 9pts at 5.0-2nd(Wasnt Matched)Beaten by the danger
Monthly Total+112.60pts
Running Total+5727.03pts

18th October

530 Cheltenham-Pretty competitve affair.Foxclub should run well with its trainer in fine form although im not certain if lots of rain would be ideal for it.

Castletown Bridge is going to have to step up on its last time out win to take this while Sud Pacifique isnt out of this but does have a pretty inconsistent profile.For Two is pretty unexposed from a big stable and a bit more improvement would see it go close although im surprised to see it out again just 6 days after its seasonal debut.

At a massive price,I can see First in the Queue outrunning its price.This horse spends most of its time in a higher grade and its just possible it could outclass them.Its trainer is 4w-1p-9r in the last 28 days

Back First in the Queue 4pts at 16.0-Won(+60pts)Absolutely hosed up in great style.

Accept 13.0
Days total minus commission+57pts
Monthly Total+127.60pts
Running Total+5742.03pts

17th October

240 Brighton-Conditions are ideal for Rocky Reef and its difficult to see it not running well.2w-3p-8r when encountering Soft/Heavy ground

1w-2p-4r in October.Its 2Ib lower than its last winning mark and with so many of its opponents having questions to answer on account of the ground and current form,its looks a very solid favourite and should be shorter than it is.

Uncle Dermot ran well last time over a mile and is proven on the ground but as of yet it hasnt produced a decent rating over todays trip of 7 furlongs.

Bestfootforward is the other with a chance as it produced easily its best form/rating 2 starts back when dropped back in trip around here.

Back Rocky Reef 12pts at 4.0-Won(+29pts *1 non runner)Won very easily.

220 Wincanton-There are a couple in here making their handicap debut who may make the improvement needed(Mainly Golanova) to win this but Buckhorn Tom sets a decent standard and is still lightly raced himself after only 6 runs over hurdles.This horse has finished 1st.2nd and 2nd since entering handicap company and handles any ground.

Sugar Hiccup is the obvious danger after winning its last 3.If the rain really comes then it does have a doubt on that score however.

Chilworth Screamer is very consistent but needs to find at least 7Ibs to trouble the selection.

Back Buckhorn Tom 8pts at 6.0 at Bet365/BetVictor-UP(-8pts)Poor run.Didnt hurdle well at all although i was surprised there was no rain which may have helped.(DT+21pts)

510 Brighton-Griffin Point has a chance on its last run but im very surprised its as short as it is.That run was in class 6 company,a grade in which its won 4 times.Todays is a class 5 however and its record of 0w-4p-15r means its surely vulnerable.

Cardinal likes the soft and ran well last time over 6furlongs.It has a rating from last season(5f soft ground) that wins this.The drop back in trip will be ideal.

Whitecrest saves its best form for around here(Form Figures 2-1-2-2-2),its fine on soft and I expect it to step up on recent runs here.

Threave didnt run very well last time over 6f on the All weather but back on turf and at 5f(Form Figures 1-2-1),this lightly raced horse could improve past everything.

Lay Griffin Point 30pts at 4.3-UP(Wasnt Matched)Cannot believe this wasnt matched considering it was priced much lower on the fixed odds markets last night.

*Cancel or Trade out if Cardinal,Whitecrest or Threave dont run*
Days total minus commission+19.95pts
Monthly Total+70.60pts
Running Total+5685.03pts

15th October

910 Kempton-This is a warm little event and handicap debutante,Wizara may prove different class to these but these are the types of horses that provide some real value elsewhere in the market.

Grendisar is very solid around here and looks certain to run its race while Thwart,although its been absent for 92 days,was quite progressive when last seen and is 2/2 at the track but this trip around here should be just what Waverunner wants after staying on last time over a furlong shorter.Its actually been dropped 2Ib since that run and I think it will go close at a big price.

Back Waverunner 7pts at 10.0 at Ladbrokes/Paddys/Bet365-UP(-7pts)Was right to take on the overnight fav but unfortunately Waverunner just didnt run its race.

14th October

4.0 Salisbury-Doubts about practically everything in this for one reason or another.The Cheka just doesnt look the horse it was although it will handle the very soft ground.Magic City wants better ground and is 0w-0p-4r on stiff tracks like this.

Mar Mar needs to find a few pounds improvement from somewhere to win while Im back returns after a 219 day absence and while it has gone well fresh before,you have to ask why a horse is only running now when the seasons nearly over.Its clearly had a problem.

This leaves Shamaal Nibraas ,who won this last year and likes the ground but Hasopop has raced in higher grades than this since it won its maiden(13 races ago) and should appreciate the drop in class.Its 2w-1p-6r in fields of 9 or less and 3w-3p-10r when returning to the track within 28 days or less.Its the best bet on an impossible days racing.

Back Hasopop 12pts at 4.5 at Ladbrokes/Boyles-Won(+42pts)
Monthly Total+57.65pts
Running Total+5672.08pts

13th October

No selections Today

12th October

205-Pretty Hot race.Darwin drops back to this trip and should go well but with all the rain forecast,im not sure about it on the ground.

Lockwood has no problems on that score and is a consistent,progressive horse with a good 3w-1p-7r record in fields of 10 or less.

Its clear favourite on my tissue.

Highland Colori is improving and is the biggest danger.

Back Lockwood 10pts at 5.5 at Betvictor-UP(-10pts)Horse lost a shoe!

Accept 5.0

920 Wolverhampton-See and be Seen is a Course and Distance winner and looks more likely than most in this to run its race.

3w-1p-12r in fields of 9 or less and twice a winner this grade.Its only 1 of 2 horses to have actually won a race in its career.

The other being Anna Shababiya,who steps up in trip which may suit on breeding but im not sure the gap in the prices between these two horses reflects their chance.

Our Golden Girl isnt out of it but is 0wins from 15 starts.

Hurrican John looks a bit short to me as it tries polytrack for the first(Sire 17% on it) and it needs to improve for it to win this.

Back See and Be Seen 9pts at 6.0 at Bet365-3rd(-9pts)Really well backed into 3.0 and looked the winner(Touched 1.3) but just ran out of it.

Accept 5.5

150 York-This is unbelievably competitve and ive got it 5/1 the field on my tissue.

Seek Again has a chance but no more than that and it shouldnt be the price it is.

Thouwra is very progressive and must go well while Gabriels Kaka on its run 2 starts back is bang there.

Romantic Settings is a consistent animal ,whos 1/1 over this trip and King of the Danes ran below par last time around Chester but you can always forgive one around that track and its 1w-1p-2r over this trip.

Lay Seek Again 30pts at 5.0-Won(-120pts)Everything went wrong here and paid the price.Thouwra coming down summed it all up.(DT=139pts)

*Cancel or trade out if Thouwra,Romantic Settings or King of the Danes dont run*

11th October

330 Newton Abbot-Kangaroo Court has a very strong profile,1/1 over the distance and at this track and 4w-0p-5r between September and December.Its a decent fav but its always been best on top of the ground and the good to soft ground may mean it doesnt quite match its latest rating.

Wayward Prince is better known as a chaser and has gone well fresh before but returns over hurdles,in which its only ran once in the last 3 years.Its difficult to know exactly what to expect.

Wilton Milan is 2/2 when returning after 80 days or more so the absence wont be a problem and it should run well but its the right price.

Uncle Jimmy has to be the value here.Its another that returns after an absence but has won after a break before and the trainer looks to be just starting to get his season going with 3 of his last 9 runners,winning.

Back Uncle Jimmy 7pts at 6.6-2nd(-7pts)Ran really well and the drying ground obviously helped Kangeroo Court to run to its best.However Uncle Jimmy touched 1.2 in running and nearly held on.

10th October

No Selections

9th October

320 Towcester-Hail Tiberius has won its last 2 and is clearly in good form.Although this horse is 2/2 in this grade,its 0w-0p-4r going Right handed and 4 runs in 11 days is a lot to ask for any horse.It may be a vulnerable favourite.

Take it on with Knockgraffon Lad,who is consistent and unexposed in this low class of race after just 2 runs.Although still a maiden over jumps,its ratings suggest it will be right there.

Over the Feather is the other horse that should fight out the finish.A consistent sort but needs to find 3 or 4 Ilbs to win.

Back Knockgraffon Lad 9pts at 6.0 at Bet365-2nd(-9pts)Pretty unlucky as despite pulling hard,it came there 2 out looking a big danger.Unfortunately it was badly hampered by a faller and couldnt reel the winner in.

440 Ludlow-Coronea Lily and Emilys Flyer are similar as in they are both in good form and should run their race particularly the former who is 2/2 around here.They are both a little shorter than on my tissue though.

Mickie steps up in trip on its seasonal debut but may prefer softer ground.Grassfinch normally needs its first run back after a break while Gulf Punch has become very inconsistent and is 0w-0p-3r in this class and 0w-1p-7r on galloping tracks.

At a value price,I can see Emerald Rose running well.This horse has produced a consistent set of ratings and the slight step up in trip may bring about more improvement.

Back Emerald Rose 6pts at 9.0 at Betvictor-2nd(-6pts)Nicely backed and despite being off the bridle some way out,kept finding and wasnt beaten far at the finish.(DT-15pts)

Monthly Total+161.65pts
Running Total+5776.08pts

8th October

640 Wolverhampton-Dangerous Age put up an excellent performance from a difficult draw,last time over course and distance.This horse is clearly a polytrack horse with a record of 4w-4p-8r on it and around this track its finished 1st-3rd-3rd-1st.

The horse it beat last time into second(Trinityelitedotcom) won a handicap in a higher class at the weekend and this horse comes out top of ratings on that performance.

Agerzam was gambled on that day but fell out the stalls and couldnt get competitive.Its probably the main danger although stall 1 doesnt seem to be the place to be these days around here.

Dusty Storm and Secret Missile have chances while im surprised Port Alfred is as short as it is.It has no form on polytrack and needs to find some improvement on my ratings.

Back Dangerous Age 8pts at 6.5 at Bet365/William Hill-Won(+44pts)Very odd betting?Hammered in at the track but drifted out on Betfair.Who cares though..it won!

Accept 5.5
Monthly Total+181.65pts
Running Total+5791.08pts

7th October

No Selections

I believe Greensward has a good chance in the 230 at Wolverhampton.Top rated on its last run.

2/2 when returning to the track within 14 days and 3w-0p-4r at this track but.....

Its ridden by Shane Kelly and I just cant put it up when hes on it.

I wouldnt blame anyone having a few quid on it but I went against my rules by putting one of Kellys mounts up last month and of course,it fell out the stalls and never got competitve.

6th October

355 Huntingdon-Red Riverman won on its chase debut and may be much better over fences than hurdles but its always been a horse better fresh.When returning to the track within 80days or less its only 0w-3p-13r.It may be a vulnerable favourite here.

Netherby makes its chase debut after an absence of nearly 600 days,it looks up against it although the market will tell its tale.

Jack the Gent was a pretty consistent chaser last season but also returns from an absence and its profile suggests it normally needs a run.

The value to me looks to be My Brother Sylvest,who tends to jump a bit right(which wont be a problem here) and is 4w-2p-9r in the months of September/October.Its also the only animal in the field that has won in a higher grade than this.

If this horse can get loose on the lead,it will be hard to catch.

Back My Brother Sylvest 15pts at 3.5 at Various Bookies-Won(+37.5pts)Very easy winner!
Monthly Total+137.65pts
Running Total+5747.08pts

5th October

250 Redcar-Caspar Netscher drops down to listed level from running in Group 2`s and if the rain does come,it will be a worthy favourite particularly now theyve finally jocked Shane Kelly off the ride..It is a better horse with some give in the ground though as is Top Notch Tonto who put up a career best performance last time but over a furlong further.

Dandy Boy is 0w-0p-5r at Listed level and also 0w-0p-5r on galloping tracks but may appreciate the step up in trip.

At a big price though,Dutch Rose surely should be a shorter price than it is as an in form,consistent filly thats ratings show an upward curve.

Its 5w-1p-7r over todays trip and 5w-3p-11r when returning to the track within 28 days.

Back Dutch Rose 7pts at 9.0 at Various Bookies.-UP(-7pts)Should`ve been there with the first 2 but clearly didnt run its race.

240 Ascot-Good race with no stand out contender.Royal Empire is just top rated on its last run but that was on the polytrack,its never raced on soft ground.

Gatewood is a CD winner,will handle the ground and is 4w-1p-7r when returning to the track within 28 days but its the right price.

Secret Number should go well but has never won on turf,so the value for me is Mijhaar,who will have no problem on the ground but the key to this horse is having a break between its races.

When returning after an absence for 60 days or more its form figures are 2nd,1st,3rd,1st. 

If it can run to the rating 3 starts back(First time out this season) then it will go very close.

Back Mijhaar 6pts at 9.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-6pts)

340 Fontwell-Giant O Murchu won last time over 2m1f but has been lumped up to a mark its never been competitive off.Its also 0w-0p-6r over 2m2f and further.Aidan Coleman who rode it to win last time has got off to ride the very unexposed Dorset Naga whos 1/1 around here.

Fearless Leader is respected for its in form trainer(3w-1p-9r in the last 28 days)

Synthe Davis has a strong profile 28 days or less 2w-1p-5r,class 4 races 4w-6p-15r and a very good 3w-1p-5r at this track.

Milgen Bay is pretty in and out these days but is dropping down the handicap and it wouldnt surprise me if it ran well.

Lay Giant O Murchu 30pts at 5.5(Lay up to 6.0)-UP(+30pts)Drifted and never seen with a chance,making it a small winning day.(DT+17pts)
Days total minmus commission+16.15pts
Monthly Total+100.15pts
Running Total+5709.58pts

4th October

545 Hexham-There is a lot of rain forecast in this area,so im banking on the ground turning soft.If it hopefully does then this race should provide a good opportunity for The Friary to break its duck over fences.

It ran well first time out last season and as its only had 3 runs over the bigger obstacles,there should be more to come.The trainer is 4/13 with her chasers here.Its clear top rated on its best run last season on soft ground.

Pyjama Game is respected on its latest run but would prefer good ground.

Apache Blue is 2w-0p-3r over this trip and proven on soft but will need to step up again if The Friary is at its best.

Back The Friary 12pts at 4.0 at Paddys-3rd(-12pts)Some rain came but not enough.Only beaten a length despite not jumping well enough.

3rd September

710 Wolverhampton-Competitive race but im surprised Glastonberry isnt favourite.Its top rated on its recent win here where it also posted a good speed figure.Its trainer is 2w-3p-9r in recent weeks and this horse is at its best at this time of year(September to December 4w-4p-10r)

Threave is an improving horse but does step up a furlong and all of its runs so far have been on turf.

Burren View Lady looks the main danger to me with a course record of 2nd,1st,1st.

Back Glastonberry 9pts at 7.0 at Bet365-2nd(-9pts)Well backed but slightly blew the start which didnt help however it had every chance.

Accept 5.5

350 Bangor-Charlie Longsdon has his horses in great form and I would expect he will have Hazy Tom ready to roll after 160 days absence.This horse has a strong profile.

2 wins from 4 after an absence like todays-3w-0p-6r in fields of 9 or less-1 out of 1 at this track and 4w-0p-5r between the months of September to November.

Lucky Landing has been running well but is 0w-2p-15r after an absence of 15 to 80 days off the track.

Lamboro Lad is just top rated on its best form last season but it has no great record fresh(0w-3p-6r) and its trainer is struggling for winners.

Gus Macrae is similar but its trainer is 3/5 with her chasers here,so is respected on that.

Back Hazy Tom 11pts at 4.3 at Bet365-Won(+33pts)*1 non runner*(DT+24pts)

Monthly Total+96pts

Running Total+5705.43pts

2nd October

3.0 Nottingham-Ambitious Icarus won this race last year and arrives in the form of its life .Top rated on its last run,the forecast rain wont be a problem.Its 2w-0p-5r at this track and loves this time of year (September/October 3w-2p-9r)

Elland Aly ran well last time and is respected on that but it doesnt win that often.

Perfect Pasture is an improving 3yo and is probably the main danger.

Back Ambitious Icarus 8pts at 6.0 at William Hill-3rd(-8pts)Ran well and beaten by the draw I believe.

Monthly Total+72pts

Running Total+5681.43pts

2nd October

820 Kempton-This is a good little race and Al Saham must run well as a consistent animal proven on this track.If Expert Fighter came back to its run back in May then it will go very close.

However at a massive price,i will risk a bit on Lowther.This horse is much better on the All weather and hasnt raced on the polytrack since the Spring.It ran poorly last time but that was on very soft ground.It does have a slight stamina doubt but thats built into the price.

Back Lowther 4pts at 17.0 Bet365/Skybet -Won(+80pts *Paid out best odds guaranteed*)Nice start to the month.Betfair sp was 39/1

Running Total+5689.43pts