31st December

210 Warwick-If this meeting goes ahead then Paddy The Oscar has a decent chance in this staying handicap.

It returned to form last time behind an unexposed winner and that rating means it should be the market leader here.

Leith Hill Legasi is a very vulnerable favourite in my view.Its up in class and races off a 14Ib higher mark than last time out.

Although conditions are fine for it,its actually 22Ibs worse off with the selection when it was beaten 22 lengths by Paddy The Oscar last season.

Morney Wing won yesterday but is surely unlikely to take in 2 long slogs in such a short space of time.

Emma Soda is 2 from 3 here but returns from a break while Loughalder is another goes well here and drops in class,it could go well.

Back Paddy The Oscar 9pts at 5.5 at Betvictor/Ladbrokes-Won(+36pts)

Lay Leith Hill Legasi 20pts at 4.5(lay upto 5.0)-UP(+19pts)

230 Lingfield-The unexposed/improving Dougan stands out for me here.

Although im a little concerned about the jockey,she has been riding plenty of winners and this horse should take a bit of beating.

In each of its 4 runs,its rating has jumped forward and if it can settle a little better than last time then it should win.

Crack Shot makes its debut for James Tate and there has been some early money for it.

Adam Kirby takes the ride and he has a 36% strike rate for the yard.

Corporal Maddox has been in great form and shouldnt be far away.

Back Dougan 15pts at 3.5-Won(+37.5pts)(DT+92.5pts)Tremendous end to the year!

Monthly Total+148.5pts

Running Total+8451.95pts

30th December

230 Haydock-Elenika was an easy winner last time,posting the clear best rating here in the process and really should be clear favourite for me.

Trip and conditions are ideal and it should go close.

Minella Reception is unexposed over fences but this will be a tough test after a break of nearly 500 days off.

I doubt it will want for fitness but is 0w-1p-4r after absences of longer than 121 days.

Friendly Royal is the danger,with its consistent profile and fine trainer/jockey combination(24%)

Back Elenika 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies-3rd(-16pts)Real laboured performance.Never really involved but couldnt give the winner much chance at all.

1220 Haydock-This looks a decent opportunity for Ballywilliam,who makes its handicap debut from a decent mark.Its the right favourite.

Bruce Almighty has been consistent but moves up in class here and needs to find some improvement on my figures.

Rock Relief is inconsistent but ran a fine race last time over a little shorter and if building on it ,would go close.

American Life has shown little so far this season but rattled off a quick soft ground hat trick of victories last year.

Its back on its last winning mark and cant have the ground soft enough.

Lay Bruce Almighty 20pts at 3.75(lay upto 4.5)-UP(+19pts)American Life hosed up!(DT+3pts)

Monthly Total+56pts

Running Total+8359.45pts

29th December

310 Newbury-Its fairly exposed and one of the lighter raced ones could improve past it but Shotavodka is a silly price here.

It ran a fair race last time over fences,in a higher grade,to back up an encouraging first run of the season over hurdles.

Both of those ratings make it pretty competitve here and its profile backs up its chance.

Its 3 runs at this track have resulted in a 3rd-1st-3rd,in fields of 9 or less its 5w-3p-10r and is 5w-4p-14r when returning to the track within 31 days like today.

One Track Mind ran well on its reappearance and would go close on last seasons best.

Lower Hope Dandy is difficult to assess but the trainer doesnt do that well here(7% strike rate) while Chieftains Choice is a bigger price than I have it.

Back Shotavodka 6pts at 10,0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Totally got it wrong

1200 Doncaster-The worry is that Pixiepot travels well and doesnt find a lot,therefore it places a lot but its ratings means its chance is better than the odds suggest here.

The better ground may allow it to stay on the bridle longer and if it does then its a big runner.

Catherines Well is the main danger as its improving and hails from an in form yard.

Donnas Pride is down in class and has chances but the trainer is 0 from 16 in handicap hurdles here in the last 2 years.

Angel Face makes its handicap debut but with a claimer booked,the trainer possibly doesnt think its well handicapped,my ratings back that up.

Back Pixiepot 8pts at 6.0 at Paddys-UP(-8pts)Lifeless performance after so many consistent efforts.

110 Doncaster-Its surprising to see The Grey Taylor as favourite here.It has only had just 2 runs over fences so could improve but will need too.

Baltimore Rock was a good hurdler and makes its chase debut straight into a handicap.

It will need to be at least as good over the bigger obstacles to take this.

Long Lunch is improving but has struggled so far,to win in this grade(0/6).

I like Katachenko,who is still unexposed over fences and heads my figures on both its runs this season,its 3w-2p-7r in fields of 9 or less.

Its a 9/4 chance for me.

Back Katachenko 9pts at 5.5 at bet365-2nd(-9pts)Ran a fine race but Baltimore Rock looked a good recruit.(DT-23pts)

28th December

200 Leicester-Noble Legend returned to form last time and would have solid chances if that run can be repeated,however it has been pretty inconsistent the last 2 years and is 0w-2p-6r going right handed.

Great Link is 0w-2p-7r over 2m4 and has posted its best rating at shorter and on better ground than this,it may be vulnerable late on.

Moorlands Jack looks better on good ground and this is also a rise in class.

The value has to be The Italian Yob for a yard that his flying at present.

Its 2 runs this year give it every chance ,its 2 from 3 in December,the trainer is 4 from 9 at this track and the stallion has a 28% strike rate at this track.

Back The Italian Yob 8pts at 7.0 at Betvictor/WilliamHill(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-8pts)

245 Catterick-Truckers Highway is improving but im shocked that Nautical Twilight isnt favourite.

Its latest run when dropped back to 2 miles was the best of its 3 runs over fences and has to be the one to beat here.

The speed figure backs up that run and I expect this horse to shorten in its odds a lot.

Difficult to see anything else being involved if the main two run their race.

Back Nautical Twilight 13pts at 4.0 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-Won(+39pts)Different class to these.(DT+31pts)

Monthly Total+76pts

Running Total+8379.45pts

27th December

200 Kempton-Sprinter Sacre is top rated on its easy comeback win and is the most likely winner of this race but the gap in prices between it and Sire De Grugy is too big in my opinion.

The latter came back to form last time,is 2 from 2 at this track and the more rain that falls,the better its chance becomes.

Its difficult to see what else could be invovled although Somersby is a bit big at 18/1.

Back Sire De Grugy 10pts at 5.0 at Sportingbet/Ladbrokes(Accept 4.3)-2nd(-10pts)Looked to have it won and touched 1.02 in running but hit the last and couldnt rally.

140 Chelmsford-Sinaker has questions to answer after running a shocker last time out and it has no experience of the track.

Belrog continues to thrive and clearly loves it here.Its progression may not have stopped yet but its pretty short and this is a rise in class.

Aumerie won last time over course and distance but is another thats up in class while Kellys Finest finally broke its duck last time but was all out to do so and will need more here.

The value is Noguchi,who has excuses for its 2 latest defeats(last time trip too short and time before up in class)

Its run 3 starts back around here,gives it every chance and it has 2 course victories to its name.

Its 6w-3p-22r in fields of 7 or less and has 5 wins to its name when returning to the track within 30 days like today.

Back Noguchi 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Halved in price but wasnt good enough.(DT-17pts)

26th December

1235 Wetherby-After showing very little on its first 2 chase starts under rules,Under The Red Sky produced much more last time in the face of a difficult task,over 2 miles.

That bare rating taken at face value gives it a fair shout and it now makes its handicap debut at a much more suitable trip.

It could have been flattered but the topspeed figure wasnt bad either,at the prices it has to be supported.

Longueville Flier and Oscar Lateen head the dangers.

Back Under The Red Sky 3pts at 17.0 at various bookies(Meeting abandoned)

1225 Market Rasen-With its inconsistent profile and a poor win record(1/37 over hurdles),Gud Day has to be taken on.

Its a double figure price in my tissue & im struggling to see why it should be near the front of the market.

My Lord is consistent and heads the ratings,this is a drop in class on just its 3rd start for Jim Best(28% with his hurdlers here)

Lean Burn is pretty solid and should be thereabouts while Kings Road could have been laid out for this.

It won this race last year and the trainer also won it the year before.

Its got form figures around this course and distance of 2-P-1-5-1-2 and is 4w-1p-8r in this grade.

Lay Gud Day 20pts at 5.5(Lay upto 6.0)-3rd(+9pts Only partially matched)

245 Market Rasen-Although it finished last of six last time out,Ublatique travelled strongly into the race and maybe this sharper,easier track will help it finish its race.

This is pretty weak with question marks over everything and off a mark 3Ibs lower than its last winning mark,its handicapped to go close.

Chestnut Ben won this race last year after an absence,so it was a pretty poor run first time out this year.It would have a strong chance based on last years run but this ground will be soft enough.

Grimley Girl is unexposed over fences and won here over hurdles,its probably the main danger.

Chankillo has been in decent form but drops in trip and wont like the ground.Its got a career record of 2 from 44.

Back Ubaltique 9pts at 5.5 at Paddys(Accept 4.5)-3rd(-9pts)Very disappointing horse.Wont be supporting again.

320 Market Rasen-This will be the 3rd start for Touch Back under Chris Bealby and the trainer appears to be coaxing some decent form out of the horse.

Its latest run is the best in on my figures and now races off its last winning mark,the drop in trip should be fine and its 3w-2p-9r in this class.

The recent win record is a worry but the price is big enough to get involved with the jockey having ridden 4 winners from 10 rides for this yard.

The very unexposed Itsnowcato is the one im worried about.It was carried out on its handicap debut and this is only its fourth career start.

Spice Fair posted a fair rating last time out but ive got it a slightly better horse back at a 2 miles trip.

Back Touch Back 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Halved in price but the trip looked too sharp.Stayed on up the straight.

310 Kempton-A great race and one in which Vautour looks seriously under priced.

A different jockey/trainer combination would see it trading at a much bigger price in my view.Its reappearance run leaves it with a fair bit to find and with a stamina doubt thrown in,I cant have it at the prices.

Don Cossack is a fair favourite and is the one to beat,its around the right price however but Cue Card represents fair value here.

Its latest run matched its career best rating and it should have won this 2 years ago,the jockey is 6 from 19 for the yard.

Smad Place produced a fine performance last time in a big handicap race.It now moves into graded company and wont be far away if repeating that latest run.

Silviniaco Conti has won this the last 2 years and represents a yard that have won this race incredibly,7 of the last 9 years.

It doesnt seem quite the horse it was but has never finished out of the frame around this track.

Back Cue Card 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-Won(+45pts Paid out BOG)

Lay Vautour 20pts at 4.5-2nd(+19pts)Called this horse wrong but got away with it.

115 Sedgefield-Gin Cobbler can be a bit in and out but it produced a good effort last time in a higher grade and could make them all go,if bouncing out in front.

Its back to its last winning mark and is a pretty silly price.

Mandy`s Boy has only had 2 starts over fences and drops in class here after running well last time out.

The first time tongue tie presumably helped that day and is retained here.

On The Case ran well last time out on its seasonal debut and is a fair favourite but is a tight enough price for me.

Theflyingportrait is unexposed but is very inconsistent.Although this is a drop in class,the yard have been struggling all season.

Back Gin Cobbler 4pts at 13.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 10.0)

Back Mandy`s Boy 5pts at 10.0 at Totesport/Betfred(Both Non Runners)

230 Sedgefield-Tiny Dancer was off for 18 months and in that time changed yards.its 2 runs for its new stables have both been over a trip I feel,is too far.

Its now back to a distance where it should be able to return to its best.

Its 1 from 1 around this course and distance,is now 6Ibs below its last winning mark and also gets a good 5Ib claimer onboard for the first time.

Im struggling to see why Shrapnel is available at 4/1,its 16/1 chance for me but it is well enough handicapped if it did decide to put its best foot forward.

Down Time has its 2nd start for Brian Ellison but will need to step up a lot on what it done on its first run for the yard.

Lord Usher looks a bigger danger after a decent run on its first start over fences while Uno Valoroso drops in class but has a question mark over this trip.

Back Tiny Dancer 12pts at 4.5-4th(-12pts)Ground looked unraceable but this horse never got competitive.(DT+46pts)
Monthly Total+62pts
Running Total+8365.45pts

21st December

710 Wolves-Hickster is solid and must run well but the price is right.

Buckland Beau has been running well but mainly elsewhere while Hercullian Prince likes it here but moves up in trip.

Walk Like A Giant at its best,would be a big runner but will need more than its rating posted last time over course and distance.

Off The Pulse was below par last time but that was from a wide draw.

On its run 2 starts back,it has a better chance than the odds suggest and it drops back into this grade for the first time since 2013.

Its 5Ibs below its last winning mark and is 5w-2p-17r when returning to the track within 30 days.

From a perfect draw,it would be no surprise if the money came.

Back Off The Pulse 6pts at 8.5-3rd(-6pts)Given every chance and ran well but just wasnt quite good enough.

19th December

1255 Haydock-So many unexposed horses here but the solid,consistent Smart Talk is a surprisingly big price.

This horse has shown progressive form and although more exposed than the rest of the field,it does have 10Ibs on my figures, in hand of the rest of the field.

Any of the lightly raced mares could improve past it but at the prices,it has to be backed.

Back Smart Talk 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-Won(+42pts)Halved in price and won easily.

315 Haydock-Major Ivan made an encouraging handicap debut last time and may improve for this slight drop in trip after travelling so well last time.

The trainer has won with 3 of his last 6 runners and this horse should run well.

Isaacstown Lad fell early on in its quest for a four timer,last time out but was improving fast prior to that and is the obvious danger.

Oscar Blue is another improver but very heavy ground is a bit of an unknown while Ugly Bug returned to form last but this is a rise in class.

Back Major Ivan 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)

1215 Newcastle-Askamore Darsi posted a good rating when winning over trip and ground and that puts it bang there here.

Imperial Leader came down on its chase debut its position in the market suggested a big run was expected.

Alto Des Mottes has been running well and the trainer has a 25% strike rate with his chasers here.

The Orange Rogue is 0 from 11 in its career and places far too often when a winning opportunity presents itself,its ratings so far in its 6 race chase career need to be improved upon to win this.

Lay The Orange Rogue 20pts at 5.0(Lay upto 5.5)-UP(+19pts)(DT+53pts)

Monthly Total+22pts

Running Total+8325.45pts

17th December

110 Towcester-There a couple of good rivals against it but Market Option shouldnt be the price it is.

It produced a good run last time on very soft ground and would have a sound chance on that.

The horse is 1Ib below its last winning mark and the yard have been in fine form for a while.

Smart Exit has put together two good runs this season,will have no problems with trip,track and ground but is now 12Ibs above its last winning mark.

Newton Thistle is 11Ibs above its last winning mark but has form figures at this track of 2-1-2-1-P-1,it has to respected on that.

Back Market Option 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Fell(-8pts)Came down early on.

330 Southwell-Theres been a bit of money for Serenity Now and I can see why.

Its latest rating over slighty further on this track,gives it a solid chance and it will probably be better back at this trip where its form figures at this track read 1st-3rd-1st-2nd.

Its 5w-7p-22r when returning to the track within 30 days(9 days todays) and the jockey is 3 from 10 for the yard.

Countermand could be better than these as it romped home in its maiden here last time but that bare rating wouldnt win this and topspeed figure was poor.

However the yard have a 38% strike rate in handicaps here and it has to be a danger.

Gabriel The Hero goes well in this grade(2w-2p-6r) but hasnt raced here before and that is always a worry.

Royal Marskell is the other I give a chance too,its been doing little but loves this track and would have a chance if repeating its last run here.

Back Serenity Now 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)This horse hasnt run its race at all to continue the poor run.(DT-20pts)
Monthly Total-31pts

Running Total+8272.45pts

15th December

100 Southwell-Since encountering the fibresand surface here at Southwell,Tiger`s Home form has gone up a level and its finished 1st-1st-2nd in its 3 starts at this track.

The latest run saw it pull clear with a fibresand specialist with 5 lengths back to the third,a repeat of that run/rating would see it going very close here.

The trainer has a 29% strike rate here in the last 2 years.

Capelita makes its debut for Mick Appleby,encounters this surface for the first time and moves up in trip.

It needs to improve for these things to win this.

What Could She Be and Noblest come here after winning their maidens last time out at this track.Both performances need improvement to take this if the selection runs its race.

Back Tiger`s Home 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-16pts)Unfortunately Capelita was a different horse to what we had seen before.

13th December

225 Southwell-Unless Ruby Rambler makes a big step forward for moving into handicap company then this looks a good opportunity for Western Breeze.

This horse has only had 4 starts over hurdles and is 1 from 1 at this track.Its latest rating puts it well clear here and I would expect it to try and make all.

Carinena is another to move into handicap company for the first time but is up in class and may want the ground a bit quicker.

Cool Baranca ran well last time but is very exposed and this ground should be too slow for it.

Back Western Breeze 18pts at 3.0 at various bookies-2nd(-18pts)Just bumped into a big improver.

12th December

110 Lingfield-This ground will be tough going,so we need a horse that is certain to go on it and Winston Churchill fits the bill here.

This horse has raced 4 times on heavy ground and finished 1st-1st-1st-2nd.

Its 3w-2p-7r over this trip and 3w-1p-7r in fields of 7 or less(Compared to 0w-5p-16r in fields of 8 or more) and is 2w-2p-6r in this grade.

Its very difficult to see it not being involved.

Alder Mairi is a fair danger and could still be improving over fences after a good win last time,however it is 0w-1p-10r when returning to the track within 30 days.(23 days today)

Kings Cross drops in class and will handle the ground,its still unexposed but is a tight enough price.

Oscar Magic hasnt had many starts over fences but needs to find at least 10Ibs of improvement on my figures,to get involved here.

Back Winston Churchill 12pts at 4.5 at paddys-UP(-12pts)

145 Lingfield-Baron Alco is the obvious starting point after winning its last two starts,the yard are going well and it should run well but it is up in trip and at the prices,its too short in my view.

Take it on with Crookstown,who has been mixing hurdling and chasing the last 2 seasons and ran a fine race back over hurdles last time,finishing behind a horse that has gone on to win since.

That performance tops my ratings and is the value here.

The horse is 3w-3p-9r when returning to the track within 30 days(14 here)

Gevrey Chamberlain has the ability to win this but is wildly inconsistent.

Trainer David Pipe has 2 runners at Doncaster but the stable jockey comes here instead,it would be no surprise if the money came.

Back Crookstown 10pts at 5.0 at Corals-UP(-10pts)Both winners make sense but neither selection have run their race unfortunately.(DT-22pts)

11th December

1140 Doncaster-Im surprised at the price of Little Windmill here.

It ran a decent race on its first go over fences last time and has to be a shorter price than it is,based on that rating.

The jockey is 6 from 29 when riding for this small yard.

Waltz Darling is the obvious favourite,it drops in class and is 2/2 during December but all its 4 chase starts suggest it can be beaten.

Cerrnunnos cant win this on whats it done so far but it always seems to be well supported,so its more than likely capable of a lot better.

Lord Wishes can be a bit in and out but would have a fair chance on its best hurdles ratings,however,its not come within 12Ibs of that over fences so far.

Dr Moloney is slightly overpriced and if running to its best ratings(Over further) then it wouldnt be without a chance.

Back Little Windmill 6pts at 10.0 at Boyles/Paddys/Betway(Accept 6.0) -Fell(-6pts)Still in with every chance when it came down coming into the straight.The way the riderless horse stayed on(minus jockey admittedly) suggested it wouldnt have been far away.Worth another chance I think.

10th December

1250 Newcastle-Ballycool is the obvious fav,it has the best recent form and the yard are going well but its creeping up the weights and I just feel this horse can be beaten and looks a fav to take on.

Nautical Twilight has only had 2 runs over fences and would have chances on its run 2 starts back but this horse is very inconsistent and looks best at Sedgefield.

Trust Thomas tends to struggle when its handicap rating goes over 111(115 today) while Pamak D`Airy has 4 course wins to its name and won this race last year.

It ran over a trip too far on its seasonal debut and i would expect better here but its around the same price I have it.

There are reasons to believe Ubaltique could outrun its odds.

It was pulled up on its first run this season but its record when away from the track for over 121 days is 0w-0p-5r,so it obviously needs a run to put it straight after a break.

It drops in grade(Class 4 2w-1p-6r) and this is its time of year(December/January 3w-2p-7r)

Perhaps most interesting of all is its record when carrying 11st12 or more(2w-2p-4r) which suggests its at its best when giving weight away to inferior opponents.

On its best runs last season,it would win this.

Back Ubaltique 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365/Betvictor(Accept 6.0)-UP(-7pts)

230 Warwick-Cyclop was a well backed favourite when coming down at the last fence,in a race it was winning easily.

This looks more competitive but from a handicapping perspective,it looks chucked in here if it can repeat that run.

Denali Highway was a well backed horse last time on its first run for 18 months but could only manage 2nd,it may regress on its 2nd start back.

Ballyrath has only had 1 run over fences and gets a visor fitted,any improvement could see it get involved.

Back Cyclop 16pts at 3.25(Already advised)-Won(+36pts)Hosed up!(DT+29pts)

Monthly Total+51pts

Running Total+8352.45pts

9th December

8th December

120 Uttoxeter-Verano is respected back in trip and at a track where its 1/1 but on whats its done,ratings wise then its a tight price.

Itshard To No comes from a yard in form and isnt out of it but is around the right price.

For Good Measure makes its handicap debut and hails from a big yard,on what its done,its isnt thrown in here and went off at 100/1 last time out.

Beau Lake has a good profile,2w-1p-5r during December...5w-0p-10r in fields of 9 or less and 6w-2p-13r when returning to the track within 28 days,however its best ratings still leave it a little short here.

The one I like at a price is Moidore,who ran a nice race on its first start for 6 months.

Its best runs on the flat were on soft ground and as of yet,it hasnt encountered that surface in 7 runs over hurdles.

The horse it ran behind last time has come out and won again and this is a drop in class.

Back Moidore 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Considering the market support(8/1 into 7/2) this was a seriously flat run.

340 Fontwell-This is pretty weak and it looks a decent opportunity for Lady From Geneva to follow up its last time out victory.

This horse has been in consistent form since coming back from a break and if backing up either of its 2 latest starts,will take a bit of beating here.

Shalianzi is course and distance winner and 2 from 5 in this grade but im not sure it wants this ground and its recent runs have been poor.

Uranox will need more than its latest start while Diamond Life ran poorly after a long absence but if the money came,i would be a little concerned as this wont take much winning.

Back Lady From Geneva 15pts at 3.25 at various bookies(3.5 at Betfair sportsbook if you can get on with them) -2nd(-15pts)Ran well but is clearly very beatable.(DT-21pts)

7th December

115 Musselburgh-Horses like Royal Macnab and Better B Quick could be dangerous if they bounced back to form but other than that,this looks to concern 3 horses.

Indian Temple made an encouraging stable debut last time behind an in form rival and drops in grade here.

This horse has only had 6 starts over fences and meets a host of mainly exposed rivals.

Quito Du Tresor has got 3 course and distance wins to its name but at 2/1 ,its fairly short for a horse that ideally wants good ground.

Endeavour is another that goes well here but also appears to want better ground than it will encounter here.

There has been some early money for Art Lord,its been showing little but would have a big chance on some of its 2013 form.

Back Indian Temple 10pts at 5.0 Bet365/betvictor(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-10pts)Ran well but Royal Macnab won convincingly.

200 Lingfield-This looks a decent opportunity for Aleator and im surprised it isnt favourite.

Its been steadily progressive and finished a good second behind an improving type last time.

The trainer has a 35% strike rate with his handicappers here and the jockey/trainer combination is 25%.

Super Kid heads the market but although very consistent, appears to be quite one paced ,as a career record of 1 from 11 suggests.

I would have their prices the other way round.

The possible fly in the ointment is Taysh,who showed progressive form in 3 starts for John Gosden.

It now makes its debut for the Mick Appleby(Stable jockey rides elsewhere) yard after a break of over 200 days and it remains to be seen how it goes in the market.

Back Aleator 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.75)-5th(-12pts)Backed into 7/4 but ran poorly.(DT-22pts)

440 Chelmsford-Thermal Column is respected,as its clearly in great form and maybe capable of better but on value grounds,its a tight price.

So far it looks to be a 3 to 4Ibs better horse at Wolverhampton rather than here and id like to take it on.

Chefchaouen hasnt won yet but has been knocking on the door of late.

Its run over course and distance two starts back is the best rating I have in this race and Jamie Spencer takes over from a lady jockey.

As usual Spencer will either be brilliant or drive you mad,lets hope its the former.

Power Up deserves to be supported,although not at its best on its two latest starts,its best ratings have been at this track and a repeat of its run over course and distance in September,would see it very competitive and Oisin Murphy is a good booking.

Back Chefchaouen 8pts at 6.0 at Betvictor/bet365-UP & Power Up 4pts at 13.0 at Betvictor/Paddys-Won(+40pts)Both well backed but the bigger price won.(DT+18pts)

Monthly Total+43pts

Running Total+8344.45pts

6th December

No Selections

5th December

130 Wetherby-This is quite a tight race but Yorkist appeals as the value.

Its just starting to come down the weights and also gets a decent young jockey taking off another 7Ibs.

Conditions are ideal for it and its 5w-4p-13r when returning to the track within 30 days.

Indian Voyage is on a roll and has 2 course wins to its name,its got a decent chance but is the right price.

Grey Life is another that looks sure to be involved,it ran well on its reapearance and trip and ground are fine.

Back Yorkist 8pts at 6.0 at Paddys(Accept 5.5)-4th(-8pts)Very one paced when it mattered.

715 Wolves-Cavalieri looks to be an in and out performer but has a 1st.2nd and 3rd to its name on this track.

Its not fully exposed at this trip and a repeat of its latest course and distance win would see it go close.

Tempuran looks the main danger.

Back Cavalieri 12pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.5)-4th(-12pts)Hammered into 6/4 but let the leaders get first run and couldnt peg them back.(DT-20pts)

4th December

130 Sandown-Quite a few here with questions to answer but not Artifice Sivola,who has been posting consistent ratings for a while now.

Its latest run behind a course specialist at Ludlow puts it top of my ratings and a repeat of that run would see it going very close here.

The trainer is 3 from 11 with her handicap chasers at this track.

De Faoithesdream looks the main danger after a good win last time and has spent a lot of its career in a higher grade.

Back Artifice Sivola 7pts at 6.5 at Stan James(Accept 6.0)-3rd(-7pts)Well backed but didnt jump well enough and did really well to even finish third

Monthly Total+45pts

Running Total+8346.45pts

3rd December

220 Market Rasen-The Geegeez Geegee heads the market and although I respect its chance and the trainer,I can see Pixiepot shortening up to a much shorter price than it is currently.

The selection has been slowly improving and is 6Ibs clear on my figures with conditions to suit.

It won its bumper here and the jockey/trainer combination won on a similar type yesterday.

Falcarragh normally races in a better grade than this and has Richard Johnson onboard but I doubt it wants the ground this soft.

Palm Grey has a chance on its win last season but is 7Ibs higher here and isnt proven on ground as testing as this.

Back Pixiepot 15pts at 3.75(already advised)-2nd(-15pts)Thought the jockey should have kicked it on 3 out but instead he sat there and eventually outstayed.Very disappointing.

2nd December

310 Ludlow-Surprised that Duke`s Affair isnt clear favourite here.This horse is on a roll and produced its best career rating & speed figure last time when encountering soft ground for the first time.

Although this is a rise in grade,it looks a progressive horse and a repeat of last times rating would see it going very close.

Minellacelebration is the obvious danger.This horse won nicely on its handicap debut last time and will have no problem with the conditions but that run will need to be bettered if the selection runs its race and I feel it really had the run of the race last time out and things may not pan out quite so well here.

Fred Le Macon is 0 from 19 and clearly very beatable while Mr Bachster makes its first appearance over hurdles since 2013 although the yard do well here.

Back Dukes Affair 13pts at 3.75 at Boylesports(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-13pts)No idea how this lost.Tanked through the whole race and should have won.

405 Kempton-Roys Legacy has no great record fresh so it was encouraging to see it run so well after 5 months off when finishing a close second over this trip at Wolverhampton.

You would expect it to benefit from that outing and its very nicely handicapped these days(15Ibs lower than its highest winning mark on the all weather)

The return to this track should suit as its 3w-2p-7r over this course and distance but that becomes 2/2 if you take just the runs in this grade(Class 6)

Perfect Words beat the selection last time but has got the widest stall to contend with and it has never raced here.

Quantum Dot goes well here but even this grade is a rise in class from the banded races its been winning while Prominna looks much better on grass than an all weather surface(0w-0p-7r on AW)

Back Roys Legacy 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Won(+56pts *Paid BOG)Fine ride and a nice drift in the market.

250 Catterick-Doubts about so many here including the favourite Cyrien Star whos very much an all or nothing animal.

It won at shorter than this on its seasonal debut and is the one to beat on that but on my figures,its at least an 8Ib worse horse over this trip.

It does however have a good record at this time of year(Oct-Dec 4w-0p-9r) but with the trainers horses pretty in and out at the moment,it couldnt be relied upon to repeat that last run.

ValleyofMilan drops in class and is nicely handicapped but doesnt want the ground this soft and is 0w-0p-10r between the months of September and January.

Playing the Field holds chances on last seasons runs over this trip but this is a rise in class and its 0w-1p-7r on sharp tracks like this.

The one I like is Shinooki,who returns from an absence but the trainers horse are running well currently and this horse will love the conditions.

Its 2w-0p-3r in fields of 7 or less and is the value call.

Back Shinooki 6pts at 8.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)(DT+37pts)

Monthly Total+67pts

Running Total+8368.45pts

1st December

100 Lingfield-Bredon Hill Lad won nicely last time but will be carrying a big weight in very soft ground,added to that a record of 0w-1p-6r when its raced over a distance further than 2m6 and it looks vulnerable.

Halo Moon is a big danger,as its progressing over fences and should appreciate the step up in trip but the trainer is just 7% with his horses here and at 7/4,it can be swerved.

Cheat the Cheater ran right up to its best on its seasonal debut and holds chances on that but it has a career record of just 1 win from 21 starts,which puts me off although I think it will run well.

The one that catches my eye is Line D`Aois.

It made a promising chasing debut last season and holds serious chances on that rating but has gone backwards since.

Interestingly,it was well supported in the market for its first run this season but ran no sort of race.

If the money was right then it may not be the lost cause it appears as that rating from last season stands out here.

It will be fine on the ground.

Back Line D`Aois 6pts at 8.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Too clever for my own good,fav was vulnerable and Cheat the Cheater was the more solid call.

130 Lingfield-Never Says Never won nicely 9 days ago,on just its 2nd start for the Honeyball stable and stands out here on the rating it posted that day.

It escaped a penalty for that and with the young rider claiming 7Ib off,will be receiving lumps of weight from the rest of the field.

Although this is a step up in class,the trainer has a fantastic record of 13/20 when moving a horse up in class that won its last race.

Sirop De Menthe is on a roll and is greatly respected,its won around here and is fine on the ground but will be giving the selection nearly 2 stone,which wont be easy in this ground.

Mr Fitzroy is consistent but beatable while Thunder Sheik is up in class and unproven on the ground.

Back Never Says Never 18pts at 3.0 at Totesport/Betfred -Won(+36pts)Won nicely despite hurdling a bit iffy.DT+30pts)

Running Total+8331.45pts

30th November

405 Wolves-This is a decent race for the grade and although its had a hefty rise for its easy win last time,Miracle Garden looks to be an improving 3yo.

From the perfect draw in 1,it can sit just in behind what should be a fast and furious run race and hopefully pick them up late.

Im surprised it isnt favourite.

Fine `n`Dandy has no experience of the surface and an ordinary draw in 7.Although the jockey and trainer have a 22% strike rate together,it looks a little underpriced.

Oil Strike and Your Gifted both go well here and wont be far away while The Wispe drops down into a class 6 for only the second time,it won the other time it ran in this grade.

Back Miracle Garden 8pts at 6.0 at bet365/Betvictor-Won(+27pts *Rule 4)Nice to finish the month with a winner.

Monthly Total+103.25pts

Running Total+8301.45pts

28th November

240 Newcastle-Although its up in grade,Final Assault is unexposed at this trip and heads my ratings after its easy win last time.

This is a pretty consistent horse and if it can repeat its latest run then it deserves to be a much shorter price than it currently is.

The Last Samurai strictly holds the selection on form last spring but it lacks a recent run although its having its first run for the Kim Bailey yard.

Colin Tizzard has won this race 3 times in the last 4 years(Courtesy of one horse) and his Masters Hill is an improving chaser,it looks the biggest danger.

Back Final Assault 7pts at 7.5(Already advised)-4th(-7pts)Series of little mistakes took their toll in the final stages after really looking the winner 3 out.

27th November

445 Wolves-This is a decent race for the grade and although im slightly concerned that Bosham has been off for 2 months,I cant ignore it as I have it around the 9/4 mark.

This horse is clearly an all weather horse(3/3) but probably even more a Wolverhampton/Tapeta specialist.

Its raced on the new surface here twice and won both times by a combined distance of over 6 lengths,which is pretty good over 6 furlongs.

It drops down to the minimum here but I dont envisage that as a problem but as ever with this yard,strength in the market will tell the horses chance.

Falsify hasnt done much in its two starts at this track but has improved since being dropped to 5 furlongs elsewhere,so could continue that improvement here.

Innocently is well handicapped but looks an unreliable type.

Back Bosham 10pts at 5.0 at Paddys(Accept 4.3)-3rd(-10pts)Strong in the market but got mown down in the final 100 yards out

145 Musselburgh-Throthehatch looks progressive over fences and im expecting better now it steps up in trip.

Its clear on my figures,is 2w-0p-4r in fields of 9 or less and the sire has a 23% strike rate at this track.

Interestingly,Trainer Lucinda Russell does well here with her chasers(23%) but if you take her horses at this track,over fences,that won their previous race by at least 5 lengths and the strike rate improves to 55%(6 from 11)

The Backup Plan has been mopping up lesser events but fell last time and is 0w-0p-5r going right handed.

Rear Admiral likes coming second(Finished there last 4 starts) and will need some improvement from somewhere to take this.

Back Throthehatch 18pts at 3.0 at Paddys/betvictor-UP(-18pts)Well backed but a poor run and a strange ride.

120 Domcaster-Im a little surprised,Enchanted Garden isnt favourite here.

Its latest run posted the best rating on offer here,which suggested its really got the hang of fences now and is clearly improving.

If anything,this drop in trip will suit even more.Good ground is ideal,its 2 from 3 with blinkers on(Fell the other start when in the lead) and its 7w-4p-20r in fields of 11 or less.

Volz D`Eau has been consistent and may still have some improvement in it but even so,its much shorter in the betting than I have it.

Buck Mulligan posted 2 good ratings back to back on its latest starts but has just 1 win to its name since 2012 and is usually worth taking on.

Off The Ground is 2 from 4 around here and has conditions to suit but im not convinced its the horse it was.

Back Enchanted Garden 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-Fell(-10pts)Took a crashing fall halfway round.

Was really hopeful for today but it turned out very disappointingly.(DT-38pts)

Monthly Total+83.25pts

Running Total+8281.45pts

26th November

325 Taunton-Not too many that can be fancied here and the price of Ballyegan appeals most.

This horse ran ok after a break but prefers a quick return to the track like today(15 days or less 4w-3p-13r)

It loves this place(Taunton 4w-6p-11r) and this grade(Class 5 4w-7p-14r) and is now back on its last winning mark.

Its 2w-3p-9r in November and won this race last year.Thats a lot of positives in a race like this.

Dawnieriver is unexposed and is probbaly the main danger while Double Chocolate drops in class and is respected but is 0w-3p-11r going right handed.

Back Ballyegan 10pts at 5.0 at Bet365(Accept 4.5)-3rd(-10pts)

24/25th November

No Selections

23rd November

220 Ludlow-Kerryhead Storm is up in class but there are reasons to be believe its overpriced here.

It ran a good race last time out, after 6 months off,finishing a good third to a horse that has won easily again since.

That performance looks better when you consider,the ground was a little faster than ideal and its better with a recent run under its belt(30 days or less 3w-2p-8r)

Its 3w-2p-9r in fields of 9 or less and in 2 miles chases around this track with cut in the ground,its form figures are 3rd-1st-2nd.

The step up in grade may find it out but id be surprised if it doesnt go close and it should be around the 4/1 mark in my view.

Noche De Reyes should run well also,it finished in front of the selection last time but had the benefit of two recent runs under its belt.

Its finished 1st and 2nd on its 2 starts around here,I expect it to be on the premises but is a shorter price than the selection.

Artifice Sivola won well last time but is up in grade and the horse it beat last time,did nothing for the form over the weekend.

Jayo Time may find the ground a little soft and the trip a bit sharp while Tornado In Milan is a little shorter than ive got it although I respect the trainer around here.

Back Kerryhead Storm 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Fairly lifeless performance.Never in it.

22nd November

230 Exeter-Anda De Grissay won 7 days ago and clearly has a decent chance but its got to carry a massive weight and is plenty short enough.

Take it on with handicap debutant,Minellacelebration,whos last rating over this trip,gives it a better chance than the odds suggest.

Back Minellacelebration 7pts at 7.0 at Paddys(Accept 6.0)-Won(+42pts)Nicely backed into 3/1 and won cosily after a good front running ride.

Monthly Total+137.25pts

Running Total+8335.45pts

21st November

115 Haydock-Although there are a few unexposed ones against it,the last time out run and back class of Vendor makes it a value selection here.

This horse was off for a while and changed yards but on its second start for the Sue Smith stable,it ran a fine race and posted the best rating in the race.

This longer trip should be even more to its liking and the softer the ground the better.

Gunner Fifteen is an obvious danger,it makes its debut for the Harry Fry yard and could be well handicapped,its no bargain at 5/2 however.

Stilletto has its first run for Paul Nicholls and obviously rates a threat while Hunters Hood has won its last three but the ground is an unknown.

Back Vendor 5pts at 11.0(Already advised)-UP(-5pts) 3 out,it looked like it had everything on the stretch but either idnt get home or went off a bit hard.

140 Huntingdon-Bit of a shock to see Abricot De L`Oasis at around the 2/1 mark(8/1 chance on my tissue).This is the shortest trip its ever ran over plus the ground could be a doubt if the forecast rain arrives but it hasnt been with the Dan Skelton yard long(2nd run) and that trainer can sometimes get massive improvement out of horses but it certainly makes the market for something else.

The one I like is Flute Bowl,who came back to form last time for the in form Gary Moore yard,that was its first run for a little while and it may well improve for it.

Its 3w-0p-8r in fields of 9 or less and any rain will be in its favour,it stays a little further than todays trip,so hopefully the jockey will make good use of it.

Sirop De Menthe has been running well but finishes second a lot and its finishing positions read 6-7-10-7-5-5 everytime its handicap mark goes over 109(111 today)

Back Flute Bowl 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Ran no sort of race.

250 Huntingdon-Once again,slightly surprised at the favourite and its price...Snowball ran well last time but is a 16 race maiden and even on that last runs rating,I could put 3 in front of it.

One of those is Aaly,who does have the odd concern of its own but at the prices,is worth supporting.

Its last time out rating,is the best here and its a strong stayer but does have a little question mark if the ground gets very soft.

It also so far has ran its best races at Fontwell but the sire has an 18% strike rate here,so it may improve for it and gets a tongue tie for the first time.

Flemi Two Toes is rock solid,goes well here and has no problems whatever the weather does while Ballochmyle ran well after a break on its handicap debut.

Back Aaly 6pts at 9.0 at betvictor/Ladbrokes(Accept 7.0)-3rd

Lay Snowball 20pts at 4.5-Won(-70pts)(DT-93pts)Just a load of rubbish.

Monthly Total+95.25pts

Running Total+8393.45pts

20th November

No Selections

19th November

1250 Wincanton-Distracted has put together 3 good runs since joining the Robert Stephens yard and its ratings are the best on show here.

Ive got it around the 6/4 mark and the current 5/2 is decent value.

The trainer is 6 from 19 with his horses that are well fancied(5/2 or shorter)

Somerset Lias has a question mark on the ground but did post a fair rating on its chase debut last time.

Im In Charge is 2w-1p-5r around here and has to be respected on that but looks better on faster ground.

Market Option represent an in form yard but has been poor on its last 3 starts and is 0w-1p-9r between November and February.

Armedanddangrous will love the ground but normally needs its first run back from a break(61 days+ 0w-2p-8r)

Back Distracted 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies(Won at 11/4 BOG +38.5pts)Bit of a war of attrition but distracted was up to it.

130 Market Rasen-Dartford Warbler had some time off with injury and in that time,the horses handicap mark was reduced and its has come back in fine form.

Hopefully the ground doesnt get too soft and if it doesnt then this horse should go close if running anything close to its latest effort,where it finished a close second(Would have won if jumping the last better) and was 32 lengths ahead of the third.

The quick return shouldnt be a problem((28 days or less 4w-1p-16r),the jockey is 12 from 56 for this yard and the horse is 2 from 6 going right handed.

Cloudy Bob will love the ground and should run well,with this drop in trip ideal.

Rio Milan is shorter than I have it as all its best runs have been at Ludlow.

Up For An Oscar probably wants the ground faster but makes its debut for Peter Bowen and is very well handicapped now.

Back Dartford Warbler 8pts at 6.0(Already advised)-Won(+40pts)Hammered into 9/4 and despite jumping left occasionally graually fought everything off.Great ride by Danny Cook.(DT+78.5pts)

Monthly Total+188.25pts

Running Total+8486.45pts

18th November

655 Kempton-It will be interesting to see which way Richard Pankhurst goes in the market here,there has been an early move for it & it clearly has a fair bit of potential.

However,it cant win this on the rating it posted on its first run back from 14 months off,it may reach the level off last season but at the prices,it needs to be taken on.

Sovereign Debt is a solid performer in this grade,with finishing positions in its listed races of 1st-1st-1st-2nd-4th.

The trainer doesnt send many horses here but when they are fancied(6/1 or less) he has a strike rate of 23% and the jockey is 7/32 when riding for this yard.

Big Baz has chances and is bigger than i have it while Very Special is improving but will need to do so again.

Back Sovereign Debt 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365/Hills-4th(-7pts)Disappointing finishing effort.Fairly typical that Big Baz won it.

Monthly Total+109.75pts

Running Total+8407.95pts

17th November

315 Fakenham-Oscar Jane has won its last two and although clearly in good heart,will need a career best to take this with the softer ground not an obvious plus.

The one I like against it is Shaky Gift,who finished behind the fav last time but was staying on over a trip probably short of its best and on ground possibly it bit too quick.

The trainer is 7 from 31 at this track and won this actual race last season.It should go very close.

Miss Mayfair has chances on its run 2 starts back but is very unreliable and the trainer doesnt do well here.

Gentle Mel has no chance on what its done over hurdles so far but makes its handicap debut and steps up in trip(Won 3m PtP),Tom Scudamore is a decent booking and its sire has a decent record here(36%)

Back Shaky Gift 20pts at 3.0 at various bookies-Won(+55pts BOG)Very easy winner

305 Southwell-Alan King has a surprisingly poor record in Mares hurdles races.

His runner here,Awesome Rosie seems underpriced on its bumper ratings(8Ib behind Yes I Did)

You would make a level stake loss(to a pound) of -£56 if you backed every one of his runners in these type of events.

Via Volupta sets a decent standard on its hurdles ratings,for a trainer that does do well in these events(31%)

Yes I Did represents a stable that have a 33% strike rate here with their novice runners and also boast a solid 30% strike rate in mares races.

Lay Awesome Rosie 20pts at 5.0(Lay upto 6.0)-3rd(+19pts)Yes I Did looked a decent prospect with a fine win.(DT+74pts)

Monthly Total+116.75pts

Running Total+8414.95pts

16th November

145 Leicester-Double Chocolate just heads my ratings after its win first time out this season(Its first run for this yard).

Theres no doubt its very well handicapped on old form but it is up in class and is 0w-2p-10r going right handed.

My figures suggest its an 11Ib worse horse this way round,so it could be a vulnerable favourite.

Playing The Field is actually the only horse in the race that has won going this way round.

On its best runs from last season,it would be a big runner although it is 6Ibs higher than its ever won off.

Bus Named Desire produced its best ever rating on its chase debut last time.

It will love the ground and the trainer is 3 from 9 here in the last 2 years.

Its the value call.

Back Bus Named Desire 8pts at 6.0 at Paddys/Betvictor-UP(-8pts)Ran poorly as the market suggested beforehand.

200 Plumpton-Ashcott Boy has won its last two but has questions to answer here.

Its 0w-0p-4r at this track,is not proven on this ground(Sire just 6% on soft) and so far,its run over this trip have seen it run nearly a stone under par.

The trainer only has a 6% strike rate here and it surely must rate a favourite to take on.

The Green Ogre is lightly raced over fences for a trainer that has a 30% strike rate here with his chasers.

Val D`Arc has decent form this season and has solid chances on its last rating while Sonny The One went off a well backed favourite on its chase debut,granted any improvement on that and it will go very close.

Mr Muddle may need the run but has 2 of its 3 chase starts here and you dont know what you will get from Dancing Dik but on its run 2 starts back,it would have a decent chance.

Lay Ashcott Boy 20pts at 5.0(lay upto 5.5)-(Wasnt Matched)

15th November

210 Cheltenham-Even though Sprinter Sacre isnt the horse it was,2 of its 3 runs last season saw it produce ratings that win this.

The trainer has stated the horse is absolutely bouncing and I cant believe they would be persevering if they didnt believe it could still be a force in 2 mile events.

This horse is 3 from 5 around this track and anything close to its run first time out last season ,would see it tough to beat.

Mr Mole has got it all on under its penalty while Simply Ned`s best ratings have come on slightly quicker going.

Somersby has got the ratings to go close,it has run well fresh many times and is 3w-3p-6r in November

Back Sprinter Sacre 15pts at 4.0 at Paddys-Won(+45pts)Different class.Hosed up!

400 Fontwell-Very soft ground would be a slight concern for Sylvan Legend although its sire has produced plenty of winners on it.

Having said that,this is a desperate race and the selection drops in class after a decent run last time.

It has a win over course and distance and the trainer is 3 from 10 in handicap chases here,in the last 2 seasons.

Im very surprised it isnt clear favourite.

Lady From Geneva has put together a couple of decent runs,the last twice but they were over further,over hurdles and on much faster ground.

It has only had 2 runs over fences but even in this race,they leave it with stones to find.

If it can translate the recent form then its a danger but there are questions to answer,not least its trainer 0w-3p-18r record in chase handicaps here.

The Cats Away has one run that gives it a chance but is very unreliable while Kapricorne will love the ground and won off a 3Ib higher mark over hurdles but its been doing nothing over fences.

Back Sylvan Legend 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-4th(-12pts)Looked to be moving into contention but weakened very badly 3 out.(DT+33pts)

Monthly Total+50.75pts

Running Total+8348.95pts

14th November

615 Wolves-Dreams Of Glory has won its last two(Both at Windsor on turf) but looks unlikely to get the hat trick here.

It has won here but on the old surface.The sire is 0 from 12 on the new surface and from a poor draw out wide,I cant see it winning.

You`re Cool has a great draw and came good over this trip last time at Chelmsford,its ran well over 6 furlongs here before,so should go well.

Burren View Lady has an outstanding record at this track(4w-5p-10r) and ran a fine race over further here last time.

The draw is a slight question mark but it should be finishing with the booking of a promising 5Ib claimer from Ireland an interesting move.

Lay Dreams Of Glory 20pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)

240 Wetherby-It has drifted and that could be a concern but Bollin Ace has become a very nice price as I believe it should be odds on.

Its only had the one run over hurdles where it finished a good second to an odds on winner.

The trainer has a 38% strike rate in novice hurdles with horses that are priced at 4.0 or under.

Bowdlers Magic won last time out but that was a weak race at Fakenham.That tracks form often doesnt translate elsewhere and its got the best part of a stone to find with the selection on my figures.

Back Bollin Ace 18pts at 3.0 at 888 & 32Red-2nd(-18pts)Looked the winner the whole way round but missed the last and couldnt claw the winner back.

Monthly Total+17.75pts

Running Total+8315.95pts

13th November

225 Hexham-There are various reasons to think Habbie Simpson could run well here on its first run after a break of 159 days.

Its record after an absence of between 121 to 365 days is 2w-0p-4r.

Its 3w-1p-7r over this distance and drops back into a grade where its a force(Class 4 2w-1p-6r).

Its also interesting when this trainer drops a horse in class,she has a strike rate of 22% compared to their normal strike rate of 11%.

It hasnt raced here before and very heavy ground is an unknown but it is 3 from 5  on soft.

Trust Thomas has a poor record after a break and it has a poor win record,although the yard going okay,I dont fancy it here.

Clan William isnt badly weighted on its 2014 chase form but its still not proven over this distance.

Tikkandemickey and Surprise Vendor both have very good course form and cant be discounted.

Back Habbie Simpson 7pts at 8.0 at various bookies-PU(-7pts)Hate this track and might stay away from it from now on.

130 Lingfield-Yodelling is respected for a yard that do well here but its short enough at 6/4.

Oakley Girl is 1 from 1 here and the yard do quite well here is handicaps(17%) but its ratings still need improving on if the front two run their race.

The one I like is Ajaadat,who has decent all weather form but hasnt raced here or over this distance.

However its sire does well here(20%) and it should like the step up in trip(21% over 10f).

This yard have an eyecatching record at this track(20%) which improves to 26% if just restricted to handicaps but gets up to 30% when just focusing on when the yards runners are in the front 2 in the market,at this track and in handicaps.

Its a big price.

Back Ajaadat 8pts at 6.0(Already advised)-2nd(-8pts)Plenty of money for it but was mown down just yards from the line.(-15pts)

11th November

250 Ayr-A race in which I can see negatives against most of the field.

Alpha Victor returns from over 200 days off and although it holds a class edge over some of these,it finished last season poorly and the trainer hasnt trained a winner in the last 2 years(0/61) that had been off for over 61 days.

Final Assault is the favourite and although I can see it going very close,it looks a little short for a horse that my ratings suggest is better at shorter.

Chavoy is 2 from 4 here and will love the ground but its not got the ratings to win this and tends to run at least a stone below its best after a long break like today.

Plus Jamais has decent course form but all at shorter.Its got a big stamina doubt,is 0w-0p-8r in this class and tends to start winning from January onwards.

Presented could go well if it handles the ground.It can be an in and out performer but is a strong stayer and is respected.

The one I like is Un Noble,who made a solid chasing debut last month.

Its obviously unexposed and will appreciate the softer ground and extra distance.

The trainers runners in chases at this track and in the front 2 in the betting market have a very respectable 41%(22/53) strike rate in the last 2 years.

Back Un Noble 12pts at 4.5(Already advised)-4th(-12pts)Well beaten in the end.

Monthly Total+50.75pts

Running Total+8348.95pts

10th November

250 Sedgefield-Grate Fella has an interesting profile in that it appears to always need its first run of the season and then wins on its second run back.(Done it the last 3 seasons)

It ran no more than a reasonable race on its first appearance this season but it should be much sharper for this.

Its got decent course form with a win and a second from 3 runs and will love the ground.

Jockey Danny Cook is riding well and is 11 from 44 for this yard.

Ever So Much goes very well here (2 from 3) and was still improving over fences the last time it ran over them but this is a rise in class and its best form has all been on faster ground.

Master Rajeem is another that goes well here(2w-3p-5r) and will have no problem with the going but the drop in trip could be a problem,its best ratings are over at least another half mile.

Saints and Sinners has a class edge over many of these but will need a career best off top weight while Tomkevi is impossible to assess accurately,having raced in France for its entire career.

There has been some early money for it,if it stays strong in the market then its a danger.

Back Grate Fella 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-2nd(-10pts)Well backed into 5/2 and ran really well.Didnt fancy the winner at all!

9th November

440 Kempton-Dutiful Son has the best ratings here and is 3w-4p-9r at this track.

This is a drop in class(Class 2w-3p-6r) and the drop in distance looks ideal.

Interestingly the horses record when racing in lower than a class 3 and in the front 2 in the market is 1st-1st-1st.

Im surprised it isnt clear favourite.

Tournament is the danger after a decent run last time but has no experience on this track.

Back Dutiful Son 14pts at 3.5 at Paddys/Betway/Hills-Won(+35pts)

Monthly Total+72.75pts

Running Total+8370.95pts