310 Ludlow-Surprised that Duke`s Affair isnt clear favourite here.This horse is on a roll and produced its best career rating & speed figure last time when encountering soft ground for the first time.
Although this is a rise in grade,it looks a progressive horse and a repeat of last times rating would see it going very close.
Minellacelebration is the obvious danger.This horse won nicely on its handicap debut last time and will have no problem with the conditions but that run will need to be bettered if the selection runs its race and I feel it really had the run of the race last time out and things may not pan out quite so well here.
Fred Le Macon is 0 from 19 and clearly very beatable while Mr Bachster makes its first appearance over hurdles since 2013 although the yard do well here.
Back Dukes Affair 13pts at 3.75 at Boylesports(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-13pts)No idea how this lost.Tanked through the whole race and should have won.
405 Kempton-Roys Legacy has no great record fresh so it was encouraging to see it run so well after 5 months off when finishing a close second over this trip at Wolverhampton.
You would expect it to benefit from that outing and its very nicely handicapped these days(15Ibs lower than its highest winning mark on the all weather)
The return to this track should suit as its 3w-2p-7r over this course and distance but that becomes 2/2 if you take just the runs in this grade(Class 6)
Perfect Words beat the selection last time but has got the widest stall to contend with and it has never raced here.
Quantum Dot goes well here but even this grade is a rise in class from the banded races its been winning while Prominna looks much better on grass than an all weather surface(0w-0p-7r on AW)
Back Roys Legacy 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Won(+56pts *Paid BOG)Fine ride and a nice drift in the market.
250 Catterick-Doubts about so many here including the favourite Cyrien Star whos very much an all or nothing animal.
It won at shorter than this on its seasonal debut and is the one to beat on that but on my figures,its at least an 8Ib worse horse over this trip.
It does however have a good record at this time of year(Oct-Dec 4w-0p-9r) but with the trainers horses pretty in and out at the moment,it couldnt be relied upon to repeat that last run.
ValleyofMilan drops in class and is nicely handicapped but doesnt want the ground this soft and is 0w-0p-10r between the months of September and January.
Playing the Field holds chances on last seasons runs over this trip but this is a rise in class and its 0w-1p-7r on sharp tracks like this.
The one I like is Shinooki,who returns from an absence but the trainers horse are running well currently and this horse will love the conditions.
Its 2w-0p-3r in fields of 7 or less and is the value call.
Back Shinooki 6pts at 8.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)(DT+37pts)
Monthly Total+67pts
Running Total+8368.45pts
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