Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
29th September
220 Southwell-Hard to imagine a poorer race than this and Chankillo has a poor win record but its only had four starts over fences and looks like it may be improving.
It produced its best run yet,last time out behind a progressive winner and a repeat of that,would see it go very close.
Tom Scudamore takes over for the first time and that cant be a negative,if it could bowl along in front like last time,that would be ideal especially around here.
The other pace angle is Shady Glen,who fell last week when running well.
That was over further than this however and it remains to be seen how the drop in distance goes.It is 0 from 13 so far in its career.
Quite difficult to see any of the other four winning this but its not the most reliable group of animals.
Back Chankillo 10pts at 4.5 at Corals/bet365(Accept 4.3)-Fell(-10pts)1.04 at the last fence when it came down,That says it all.Would have won!
255 Southwell-Cut the Corner must win one of these soon.It continually posts consistent ratings and after only 2 starts over fences,its ratings continue to rise.
Its last run puts it top of my figures and im pretty sure it will start as favourite.
That honour currently goes to Boss in Boots.This horse does drop in class and ran well last time but hasnt got any worthwhile form over this trip of 2m4f.
I can see it being vulnerable late on and it is still 12Ibs above its highest winning mark.
Ballbogey is reliable and although not having much in hand in the weights,will stay well and shouldnt be far away,similar comments apply to Zama Zama.
Swing Hard does interest me a bit,although returning from an absence,the yard are in great form,its well handicapped and the jockey is 8 from 16 for this yard.
Lay Boss in Boots 15pts at 3.5(Layupto 4.3) Lay 10pts to place-UP(+23.75)Drifted all day.Solid lay selection.
305 Sedgefield-Looks a two horse race to me.The Back Up Plan has only had 3 runs over fences and has decent chances on its last run.
This is a rise in class however and its giving away lumps of weight.On value grounds,you have to be with Sendiym.
This horse loves it around here(Sedgefield 4w-2p-8r),its 3 from 9 over this trip and its 4w-1p-10r during September and October.
It couldnt have a better pilot than Brian Hughes and I expect this horse to go close.
Humbel Ben is 12yo now and although it has bits and pieces on form,it would prefer softer ground.
Back Sendiym 12pts at 5.0 at Paddys(Accept 4.0)-2nd(-12pts)Money for it and just beaten by The Back Up Plan(Touched 1.43 in running).(DT+1.75pts)
340 Sedgefield-Another race that looks between 2 horses.
Ever So Much has put together 2 good performances back to back and is 2 from 2 around here.
Its 3w-1p-5r in September and its 4w-1p-8r in fields of 9 or less.its price is borderline value and I will include it as a saver.
The only horse I see causing it problems is the lightly raced Howaboutnever.
Its up in class but has been quite consistent in its few runs and this is Daryl Jacobs only ride of the day.It is the value in the race.
Back Howaboutnever 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP
Back Ever So Much 5pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.75)-2nd(-15pts)(DT-13.25pts)
28th September
4.0 Newton Abbot-Vexillum`s last time out run stands out here and although the horse can be a little in and out,the fact is,if it can reproduce that run then this horse should be a 5/4 shot,as the opposition really isnt up to much.
Bulletproof came and mowed down one of our selections late on,over course and distance last time but even that run leaves it with 7Ibs to find here.
Hold The Fort has chances on its latest run but is 0w-0p-3r when returning to the track within 40 days(8 days today).
Bumble Bay went off favourite on its handicap debut last time but ran poorly,it gets the tongue tie on this time and it will be interesting if the money comes again.
Back Vexillum 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies-4th(-16pts)Its inconsistent profile concerned me and its not run its race here.Never got into it.
320 Hamilton-Jebel Tara has been on a roll and has won 4 of its 7 starts over this distance.Its rock solid and must go close.
Tango Sky ran really well just 2 days ago and has a big chance on that run,its 3w-1p-9r in this grade.
Veeraya has never raced over this trip on turf but ran really last time on the all weather.If it can back that up on grass then its a player.
Feel The Heat has been showing very little but bounced back to form out of the blue last season to win at 50/1 at this track.
Its 2w-1p-4r in this grade,2w-2p-7 at this track and 2 from 2 in September,so its all there if the horse fancies it.
Ortac Rock has a chance but nowhere near the chance Jebel Tara has and yet is the same price.
Its only had one win since 2013 and that came on the all weather.
It finished 17 lengths behind Jebel Tara two starts back and although the weights are revised,thats a lot of ground to make plus the horse possibly wants further.
Lay Ortac Rock 15pts at 4.7(Lay upto 5.0)Lay 10 pts to place-UP(+23.75pts)(DT+7.75pts)
Monthly Total-36pts
Running Total+8362.22pts
26th September
435 Market Rasen-Laser Blaser hasnt managed to match last seasons exploits by some way but I do wonder if it may bounce back to form here.
This horse has been racing in much better races than this and has now tumbled down the weights to 4Ibs below its last winning mark.
Its 3w-1p-6r on sharp tracks like this and has been given a decent break of 76 days(record after 41 days+ off reads 2w-2p-6r).
Its 2 from 3 during October and September and trainer Alan King has been going very well lately(5 winners from last 14 runners)
It may well blow out but if can run anything close to last seasons best then it will eat these for breakfast especially as theres not a horse that holds obvious claims against it.
Fair Loch only won a seller last time and although 1 from 1 here,will need to step up a lot to take this while Don Padeja was poor last time and although dropping in class,it hasnt ran well in its 2 previous attempts at this track and may be a better horse at Stratford.
Handsome Dan drops 5 furlongs in trip and may well struggle to lay up with them around here.
Dr Irv is lightly raced over hurdles and isnt on a bad mark but hasnt won since 2013.
Back Laser Blazer 5pts at 11.0 at various bookies(Accept 8.0)-2nd(-5pts)Backed from 10/1 into 6/1 and ran a fine race.
25th September
340 Newmarket-Time Test could be different class but the fact remains it disappointed last time and it has to prove itself down in trip.
In what looks a two horse race then Custom Cut is clearly the percentage call.
This horse won last time out and won this event last year.Its 2 from 4 in September and could get the run of the race out in front.
Back Custom Cut 14pts at 3.5-2nd(-14pts)Time Test too good!
450 Newmarket-Wadi Al Hattawi has been either very good or very bad in its career.
If its the former then it deserves to be favourite as its latest run puts it top of my ratings.
The trainer has won this race twice in the last 6 years.
Cannock Chase is consistent and will like the ground.It does have to prove its stamina and will need to improve for the step up in trip on my ratings.
Tashaar is the other in with a shout.Its improving on my figures but will need to do so again to win this.
Back Wadi Al Hattawi 16pts at 3.25-Pulled Up(-16pts)Horse broke down 4 furlongs out.
150 Worcester-Valadom ran really well after a break last time,on its UK debut.
It finished just behind a rival who has since backed up that run and the rating it posted means ive got it around the 2/1 mark.
If it turns up in the same form then it offers some serious value here.
Hawaii Five Nil is improving,unexposed over fences and rates the main danger.Jonjo O`Neill`s horses are normally very much to be feared when stepped up in trip like this one but it didnt improve for this trip over hurdles.
Back Valadom 12pts at 5.5-Won(+54pts)Pushed the points up as I knew this was massive value.Nice to be rewarded with a fluent jumping display.(DT+24pts)
Monthly Total-38.75pts
Running Total+8359.47pts
24th September
350 Perth-Sharp Rise has been consistent and progressive over hurdles and fences this season,winning on all types of ground and over various distances.
It makes its handicap debut here and on my figures,it doesnt look a bad mark and it is a course winner.
James Reveley is 5 from 23 for the yard and its 4w-2p-8r in fields of 9 or less.
Maraweh has been going well but is possibly better over further and needs to progress again.
The two dangers are the Gordon Elliot pair,Miss Dinamic and Be Seeing You.
The former won yesterday and hosed up in a weaker race than this but Richard Johnson gets off that to ride Be Seeing You.
Thats suggests its the main hope and if the selection finishes in front of it then it will go very close.
Back Sharp Rise 8pts at 6.0 at Corals(Accept 5.0)-Fell(-8pts)Cruising along in front when fell 2 out(trading at 1.5 in the run)Would have won!
5.0 Perth-Our friend Bouggietopieces is down to run again,this trip will suit it more than yesterdays but it had a hard enough race and it remains to be seen if it turns up.
Pekanheim is lightly raced over fences and returns from a break.Its shown nothing right handed so far and has a little bit to prove.
Cayman Islands is inconsistent and is shorter than it should be,its 0w-1p-8r in fields of 9 or less.
Quito Du Tresor is becoming nicely weighted now and is a force in this grade(Class 4 2w-0p-6r),Its not getting any younger but is worth a saver.
Last years winner Gleann Na Ndochais has a better chance than the odds suggest.
Its a dual course winner and is 1w-1p-2r in September.
It looked a danger last time out before weakening late on over further.That rating is one of the best here and its capable of better over this trip.
Back Gleann Na Ndochais 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies -2nd(-7pts)This one touched 1.3 in running before not winning
Back Quito Du Tresor 2pts at 11.0 at various bookies-4th(-2pts)(DT-17pts)
23rd September
330 Perth-You have to respect the Elliot/Johnson combination and especially here but I just cant have Bouggietopieces over this trip.
This horse won last time out at this track but over 2m4.Its not managed a place in its 5 runs over further than that distance and on my figures,is an inferior horse by more than a stone over the trip.
It just looks a very false favourite to me especially with the sire having a strike rate of just 3% over todays trip of 3 miles.
Solway Legend will miss at least one fence on the way round but normally stays up and is a rock solid horse in this race.
Its 2 from 6 at this track,stays the trip well and the trainer is an impressive 9 from 30 with her chasers here.
Down Time at its best wouldnt be far away while Shady Sadie and Lord Fox also have chances but the real interesting one is Bar A Mine.
This horse makes its debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies(23% here with his chasers),has only had one run over fences(made fav but fell early on)
It could easily be different class to these.
Lay Bouggietopieces 20pts at 5.0(Lay upto 5.5)-2nd(+19pts)Ran well but always likely to have something stay on better.
345 Goodwood-Most interesting thing in this race is the stamina doubts over most of the field.
Very few are actually proven over this trip and a couple of those that are, wouldnt be good enough to win this.
Battalion is though and appears to handle the soft ground well enough to run its race and if it does,it must go close.
It appears to like this time of year also(August to November 3w-0p-6r)
Basem is clearly the main danger,as the rating is posted last time out is just the best here but that was over a furlong shorter and on good ground.
As a son of Pivotal,it should cope with the ground but it has avoided it so far generally,however whether it copes with the ground and the extra distance is another thing.
Hors De Combat and Wannabe Yours both need to improve for the step up in trip to take this.
Back Battalion 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies(Accept 4.0)Won(+36pts *Non runners*)Favourite never going and Battalion stayed on well(DT+55pts)
Monthly Total-45.75pts
Running Total+8352.47pts
22nd September
440 Warwick-Creepy is at its best fresh,during the Autumn,on a left handed track and on good ground.
Its got all those things here and on its rating it achieved first time out last season,it stands out here.
Its actually won first time out on each of its racing seasons and spent most of last season operating at a higher level than this.
Mont Royale and Town Mouse look the dangers.Back Creepy 16pts at 3.25 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-3rd(-16pts)Backed into odds on during the morning before weakening on course.Jumped fine until missed one in the back straight and that was that!
Monthly Total-100.75pts
Running Total+8297.47pts
20th September
250 Hamilton-Pull the Plug is the value here,its been in consistent form and ran well over course and distance last time.That run makes it a big runner here.
Interestingly,they put up a promising 7Ib claimer onboard and that could make the difference.Its 3w-1p-9r in fields of 9 or less.
Escrick is the danger.Although its been running in a lesser class,its latest speed rating suggests it will cope in this grade and De Sousa is 7 from 27 for this yard.
Lacing drops in grade but although this is its easiest task for a while,im not sure its been running well enough or is well enough handicapped (16Ibs higher than its last win) to take advantage.
Back Pull the Plug 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Plenty of money for it but ran poorly
230 Plumpton-Sleeping City has won its last two and has the services of Richard Johnson but its far too short in the betting,based on my ratings.
This is a rise in class into a grade where its 0w-0p-3r,its latest victory has seen several horses behind it,come out and disappoint.
Its ratings and speed figures suggest it isnt up to this.
Both Ballyglasheen and Cool Macavity operate at a higher level than this normally and should be big runners in this lower grade while King Muro is progressing fast and should go close.
Lay Sleeping City 20pts at 5.0-UP(+19pts)
*Cancel or Trade out if King Muro,Ballyglasheen or Cool Macavity dont run*
4.00 Plumpton-Kilfinichen Bay is a bit of a win machine and you have to respect its chance but this is a tougher race than its been mopping up and it will need to improve again.
Based on that,its a lot shorter in the betting than ive got it and that allows for some value elsewhere.
Princeton Royale has come to life since being moved up to 3 miles and being fitted with a visor.Its latest rating makes it the one to beat and its favourite in my prices.
The other that interests me is On the Bridge.The trip last time was too short and it wouldnt be far away on its best ratings over this trip.
This is its time of year(Sept to Nov 3w-2p-7r) and this is a drop in class into a grade where its got a strong record(3w-2p-8r)
Back Princeton Royale 10pts-2nd at 5.5 at Ladbrokes & On the Bridge 5pts at 10.0 at Hills-UP(-15pts)Beaten in a photo finish,which just about sums up the month.(DT-6pts)
18th September
605 Hexham-On its second start for the Micky Hammond stable,Longueville Flier cruised into the lead over 3m2f two fences out but appeared not to get home before finishing third.
Although this is a better race than that,its rating from that day suggests its got a strong chance and with the drop to 3 miles surely likely to help,I would expect it to better that run.
Its only had just 4 starts over fences and is easily the most unexposed horse in this field.
Chicago Outfit has won 3 of its 6 starts around here and although 9Ibs above its highest winning mark,it has to be respected back at this venue.
SettledoutofCourt is another course specialist(2 from 3) but returns from a break and is still above its last winning mark.
Moyode Wood has the look of a horse that will get punted at some point but may want it a little softer than this.
Back Longueville Flier 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Hammered into 2/1 but jumping fell to pieces on the final circuit.Chicago Outfit too good around here.
705 Hexham-Solway Trigger has been knocking on the door and will surely win one of these soon.
It was only just beaten by a progressive rival last time and a repeat of that run,sees it go very close here.
Koultas King returned to some form last time when making its debut over fences and now returns to hurdles on a decent mark,the booking of Sean Bowen is probably significant.
Kings Song has a bit to find but won last time on similar ground and now moves up in trip.If that suits it could get in the frame.
Verko is 0 from 13 now and although it ran well over course and distance three starts back,its put together two poor runs since.
Its best ratings leaves it at least 7Ibs short of the top rated here and ive got it a double figure price.
Lay Verko 20pts at 6.0-UP(+19pts)
405 Newton Abbot-Sweet World nearly connected for us last week at a juicy price and I see no reason to desert it,in a pretty weak race.
This horse hasnt won for a while but did nothing wrong last time and was only caught over the final hurdle by an in form and progressive rival.
Theres nothing like that in here and its record at this track on good or faster reads 2-2-2-1-3-1.
Bobs Legend has a career record of 1 from 30 and looks far too short to me.
Far bigger dangers could be Supernoverre and Bulletproof.
Back Sweet World 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-2nd(-9pts)Beaten at 1.15 in running.2nd time the jockey has got there too soon on this horse in my opinion.Very Very frustrating!(DT=)
17th September
6.00 Pontefract-Jebel Tara has been in fine form and may have found 7 furlongs a little too far last time but I expect it go well back down to its best trip of 6 furlongs.
It looks the most likely to run its race and you cant say that about too many of this field.
Its 3w-2p-12r when returning to the track within 7 days.Its favourite on my prices.
Captain Scooby is top rated on its latest run but that was in a lower class and over a furlong shorter.Its a 10Ib worse horse over this trip.
Teetotal has 3 course wins to its name and on its best form,wouldnt be far away.
Exentricity is still a maiden after 11 starts and looks far too short in the market to me.
Back Jebel Tara 8pts at 6.0 at bet365(Accept 5.0)-Won(+32pts *1 NR)Last furlong seemed to last forever but it just held on.Nice to get a little luck.
Monthly Total-75.75pts
Running Total+8322.47pts
16th September
510 Kelso-Nothing has got a strong chance here and I will take a punt on the outsider of the field.
That horse is Jewellery,whos form tailed off at the end of the jumps season in the spring but that was after a decent season.
Its loss of form doesnt overly concern me as its always done its winning between August and November and being an 8yo,I doubt it will change now.
In fact during the month of September its 3w-2p-5r and although it does return from a break,it won first time out last season.
Its got 5 wins to its name on sharp tracks like this,the jockey is 3 from 4 on the horse and the trainer is 4 from 16 at this track with her chasers.
Theres too much there to miss the price!
Sendiym is the most obvious danger,it ran well last time and is 4w-1p-9r during September/October but I wonder if its slightly better at shorter.
Back Jewellery 3pts at 21.0 at various bookies(Accept 13.0)-UP(-3pts)Halved in price but this horse has clearly lost its way.
610 Kelso-On the face of it,Muwalla faces a tough task here.Up in class and racing off a mark that its never won off but it posted such a good rating last time on its stable debut for its new yard,that I wonder if it could have improved for the change.
That run was behind one of todays opponents Robins Command but it was also after over a year off.
Its got no great record fresh,so is entitled to come on for it.
The jockey is 2 from 8 for this yard and its 2w-2p-6r during September/October.
Its a stupid price on my figures and I wouldnt put anyone off backing it each way but as its a dead 8 runners now,one non runner would ruin all that.
Purple`n`Gold won on its chase debut last time and is a fair favourite,its the one to beat although Robins Command is respected.
Back Muwalla 5pts at 13.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 9.0)-2nd(-5pts)Backed all the way into 7/2 and ran well but couldnt peg back the winner.(DT-8pts)
15th September
340 Chepstow-Peak Storm has an incredible 7 course wins to its name,is fine on soft ground and must go well but from a value point,theres very little juice in its price.
Port Lairge is another in good form and will have no problems with the ground but it is a bit of a Brighton specialist and this is a rise in class.
Sarangoo probably went off a little too fast last time but would hold a strong chance based on its rating over this trip and ground,the time before.
Cathy Gannon is 4w-4p-12r on the horse and its record over this course and distance with cut in the ground reads 1st-1st-3rd.
Its the value in a good race.
MyBoyAlfie is another that could run well despite being a big price.Its very well handicapped now,is 2 from 4 at this track and is 6w-4p-20r when returning to the track within 28days.
Subversive isnt out of it on its best runs but im not sure about Goring.
The ground has to be question mark and although it would have a chance on its best runs,they have all been on fast ground.
Ive got it a double figure price and It needs to be taken on.
Back Sarangoo 6pts at 7.0 at Paddys/Betvictor-UP(-6pts)Probably off too fast again but possibly has had enough for this season.Really poor run.
Lay Goring 15pts at 6.0 to win and 10pts to place-Non Runner
13th September
425 Ffos Las-Champagne Champ is 2 from 2 over course and distance but steps up from class 6 to a class 3 here.
Its ratings suggest its need to improve again and it looks a very short price indeed.
Karaar drops in class and would be a big runner on its run 3 starts back but its last 2 runs werent as good.
Felix Fabulla is now 11Ibs higher than its last win and despite being a course winner,I cant see it winning.
Deinonychus was progressing well until a very poor run last time while Spiritoftomintoul returns from over 100 days away.
The value is Royal Warranty,who ran well last time over this trip at Chelmsford,its got comparable ratings on turf and the trainer has a 28% strike rate with his older horses here.
Back Royal Warranty 7pts at 7.0 at Corals(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-7pts)Looked like it was coming to win the race but almost looked like it didnt quite get home.
Monthly Total-93.75pts
Running Total+8304.47pts
12th September
250 Chester-This is a welcome drop in class for Sheikhzayedroad,who moves back into listed class for the first time since last summer.
Its finished 1st and 2nd on its two runs in this grade and with the yard in good form,I would expect it to go close.
It likes a break between its races(41days+ 4w-1p-9r),so 44 days off should be ideal and its 5w-1p-16r in fields of 9 or less.
Secret Number is probably the biggest danger but does have questions to answer after managing just one run in the last two years.
If its the same horse it was then it will be a tough opponent but Saeed Bin Suroor has only an ordinary record here(5/64) and I prefer the selection at the prices.
Ajman Bridge and Lustrous arent out of it but will need the front 2 in the market to underperform to win this.
Back Sheikhzayedroad 11pts at 4.3 at Betvictor(Accept 4.0)-3rd(-11pts)Never had a chance the way the race panned out.Secret Number`s strength in the market told you everything.
355 Bath-Guard of Honour looks too short to me here,its got a chance but has hit the frame this season on each run and now moves back in trip and up in class.
Im not sure the drop in distance will suit and with the jockey/trainer 0 from 11 when teaming up,im happy to take it on.
Sir Jack Layden drops in class and gets George Baker onboard for the first time(1 from 1 for the yard),theres already been early money and it looks significant.
Meetings Man returned to form last time and is still nicely handicapped on last years efforts.Its 1/1 at this track and 3w-1p-5r over this trip.
Statsminster has dropped 10Ibs in its last 4 runs and is becoming nicely weighted while Glens Wobbly can never be discounted here(5 course wins)
Lay Guard of Honour 20pts at 5.0(Lay upto 5.5)-Won(-80pts)No idea how it won as it looked to be going nowhere but its assured stamina came to the fore after a relentless gallop.Bad Day!(-91pts)
*Cancel or trade out if Sir Jack Layden,Meetings Man or Statsminster dont run*
11th September
5.0 Chester-Taraz is 2 from 2 over the trip and clearly has a decent chance but is drawn on the outside and may prefer the ground a little faster.
Newera must go close as its 4 from 5 over this distance,for me its most likely winner but theres not enough juice in its price to get involved.
There are negatives with Cyril but it shouldnt be 14/1.
Its last 2 runs have been over a trip that stretches it(12 furlongs) and although the last run was well below par,Im willing to take a chance with it moving back to 10 furlongs,a trip its finished 2nd-1st-1st in its 3 runs over it.
This horse likes to front run,which isnt a bad thing around here and although id like the ground a bit quicker,a sunny day is forecast.
It has to be supported at the prices.
Back Cyril 4pts at 15.0 at Bet365/Corals-UP(-4pts)Couldnt get to the front and that was basically that.
305 Doncaster-This must be one of the weakest Group 2 races ever run in the UK.
There isnt a really proven group performer in the field & it looks a decent chance for a top handicap horse to steal some black type.
It doesnt win that often but Suegioo looks ready to run a big race.
It was staying on well last time over a trip short of its best and that rating gives it every chance here especially with the trip being ideal.
It certainly should be at the front of the market.
Pallasator is probably the class act but has become more and more difficult at the races and I dont trust it.
William of Orange is improving as is Seamour but they both need to again while Fun Mac is unexposed as a stayer and is a danger.
Back Suegioo 7pts at 8.5-3rd(-7pts)Toyed with advising this each way and hindsight suggests that would make sense given its win record but only beaten 2 lengths after a good run(DT-11pts)
10th September
240 Epsom-Swot heads the market here after breaking its maiden tag last time.
That wasnt a strong race with the runner up a 13 race maiden,the topspeed figure was poor and it looks a false favourite to me.
Inke is respected as its clearly in good form at the moment but the value for me has to be Deep Blue Sea.
This horse ran poorly on soft ground last time,that was the second time in its career its done that,added to that,im not sure the drop to 7 furlongs was ideal either.
Its run before that,saw it finish a close third over this trip and ground,in a better race than this,which has worked out well.
This horse has been competitive off this mark all season and now,interestingly,they claim 5Ibs off it.
Its possible that could make the difference,its certainly a massive price based on several runs this season.
I was going to add Bakht A Rawan as a back up selection but there has already been a move for it & I couldnt advise getting involved at the current 7/1.(Id want at least 9/1)
This horse has run 2 fine races at this track and I will be surprised if it isnt thereabouts.
Back Deep Blue Sea 4pts at 15.0 at various bookies-UP(-4pts)Nibbled at in the market but clearly not in the same form as 2 starts back.
9th September
420 Uttoxeter-According To Sarah heads the market but isnt a win machine by any means and is now 6Ibs higher than its last winning mark.
The yard continue in fine form and the horse is respected but its shorter than ive got it on my prices.
LadfromHighworth is rock solid and should run its race.
The second has won since from its latest victory and its a very consistent animal.
Jayo Time is quite interesting.Its been racing in lower grade events over hurdles and has been claimed after its latest run and joined a new yard.
They put it straight over fences,a discipline its unexposed in after only 2 runs and it has a change of headgear.
Its last chase rating gives it a better chance than the odds suggest and it is a course winner.
Back Jayo Time 8pts at 6.0 at betfair sportsbook(Accept 5.0)*5.5 at Paddys/betvictor/Hills-Won(+36pts * 1 non runner)Pretty stylish victory in the end.I was impressed with the young jockey.
525 Uttoxeter-Its been in the doldrums for quite a while but Sweet World has tumbled so far down the weights(23Ibs lower than its last win) that it must drop in soon.
This horse has operated at a better level than this in the past and appreciated the drop to this company last time.
That wasnt a strong race but nor is this.
The trainer has+£17 level stake profit with his handicap hurdlers here.
Cruise in Style is the obvious threat but is short enough.
Back Sweet World 7pts at 8.0 at Various bookies-2nd(-7pts)Came cruising into the lead where I was getting pretty excited but found Cruise in Style too strong.Forecast paid £47.(DT+29pts)
Monthly Total+19.25pts
Monthly Total+19.25pts
Running Total+8417.47pts
8th September
350 Redcar-This is pretty competitive but nothing has a compelling case and after a couple of quiet runs,there is a chance that Fieldgunner Kirkup could bounce back to form at a massive price.
This horse has ran at this track four times and finished 1st-1st-1st-3rd,its also now back on its last winning mark.
It appears to like a big field(10 runner+ 7w-5p-32r) and although the yard are a little quiet,theres enough in the price to warrant an each way interest.
Abushamah,Kalk Bay,Zaaem and Auspicion head the list of dangers.
Back Fieldgunner Kirkup 3pts each way at 17.0 at various bookies(Accept 15.0)-UP(-6pts)Money for it but I was surprised to see it leading and it paid for it late on.
710 Perth-I Always respect this trainer and jockey combination but Enchanted Garden looks too short to me here.
This animal was a good hurdler but its ratings,in its 3 runs over fences so far,arent in the same league and although theres still time for it,it isnt a big horse and im not sure it will ever scale the same heights.
Border Breaker is unexposed over fences and the trainer does very well here(13/38)
Irish raider Run With The Wind has raced over fences in the UK once and that resulted in a win over this course and distance.
It likes a small field(0-9 runners 4w-0p-10r) and will be fine on the ground.
Gleann Na Ndochais normally runs well around here(2 course wins) and will appreciate the drop in trip after weakening late on over 3 miles last time.
Russian Regent is probably too high in the weights now but it goes very for Richard Johnson(2w-2p-5r on it).
Lay Enchanted Garden 15pts to win at 4.5(Lay upto 5.0) 10pts to place-Fell(+23.75pts)Might have been in a bit of trouble when this horse came down 3 out.(DT+17.75pts)
740 Perth-Not the easiest race to assess accurately as two of the main market leaders,are stepping up significantly in trip.
Western Way is 2 from 2 going right handed but moves up to 3 miles from 2m2f,its pedigree isnt laden with stamina but its been put in very short by the bookmakers.
If it stays strong in the market,close to off time then I would assume the stable think the trip will suit.
Skylander is another up in trip,although it did win a point to point over the distance a while back.That proves it stays but at what speed,its difficult to say.
The yard do very well here but the ground may be quick enough.
The solid option is Count Salazar,whos been posting some progressive ratings around this trip, in its four runs since joining the Andy Turnell yard.
Its 2w-1p-5r going right handed and the jockey is 6 from 19 for the yard.
Back Count Salazar 12pts at 4.0 at Various bookies-3rd(-12pts)Led until the last but the two difficult to assess horses came past.(DT+5.75pts)
Monthly Total-9.75pts
Running Total+8388.47pts
7th September
240 Perth-Urban Kode isnt out of this as it goes okay here but it looks on a tough enough mark although this is a race where its difficult to fancy many.
Until it fell last time,Bennachie was progressing well and the trainer does well here(28% with his hurdlers) but it remains to be seen if the fall will affect it and its a pretty tight price.
For me,that horse and Johnny Go`s price are the wrong way round.
Johnny Go has some progressive ratings to its name and could easily have more to come.
Any improvement on its latest run would make it tough to beat.
Back Johnny Go 14pts at 3.5-4th(-14pts)Hammered into 6/4 but never looked happy throughout.Well beaten 4th in the end.
310 Perth-It remains to be seen how Koup De Kanon goes in the market here,its been put in at a very careful price in my view.
Its only raced once over fences but needs to step up a lot on that performance to get involved here.
It`s All An Act is respected as its 2 from 2 at this track and Richard Johnson is 3/8 for this yard but it has fell on two of its last three starts and you do need jump well around here.
Robins Command is always a threat around here(Perth 3w-1p-6r) while Sleep in First has been running well but the trainer is 0 from 15 with his chasers here.
At a price,I dont think Ballycool is completely out of this but the ground may be a little quick.
Im surprised at the odds on last years winner,Claragh Native,its no more than reasonably handicapped but wasnt beaten far around Cartmel last time.
Its 2w-0p-4r going right handed and is 2w-1p-5r during September.
It wants the ground fast and its a big runner on its win,4 starts back.
Back Claragh Native 5pts at 13.0 at bet365(Accept 9.0)-4th(-5pts)Never able to get into it.(DT-19pts)
6th September
325 Fontwell-Returned to fences last time,Alla Svelta produced its best run for a while.
That rating gives it a strong chance here,if it can be repeated and after just 6 starts over the larger obstacles,theres a chance,it could improve on it.
The trainer is in flying form with 5 of his last 15 winning.
West End looks the main danger and has been running well but has finished 2nd on 3 of its last 4 starts,so is clearly beatable,its now 9Ibs above its last winning mark.
At its best ,Herecomesthetruth could get involved while Time is Tickin possibly wants the ground softer.
Back Alla Svelta 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Fell(-12pts)Just coming to win the race when it took,what looked like a fatal fall,at the last.Frustrating but horrible to watch.
Could easily have had 2 out of this 3 weekend.
Monthly Total+3.5pts
Running Total+8401.72pts
5th September
350 Stratford-I respect Carrigmorna King,who won around here 2 starts back but its short enough for a horse that ran a shocker last time.
This trip may also be far enough for it.
Mont Royale has had the one start over fences and it ran well,finishing 2nd behind a horse that has gone on to win twice since.
That suggests this horse is nicely handicapped and with expected progression to come,for me,its the one to beat and should be clear favourite.
Buck Mulligan is the only other in any sort of form but has only won once since 2012.
Back Mont Royale 16pts at 3.25-2nd(-16pts)Looked all over the winner after jumping into a clear lead 2 out(Touched 1.18 in running) but folded tamely when challenged.
5.0 Stratford-Hawaii Five Nil and Quadriller are both lightly raced over fences but are both short enough in the betting,on what theyve done so far.
Zama Zama has raced here 3 times,winning twice and falling in the other start.
Its possible it could get an easy lead and is the value in the race.
Back Zama Zama 12pts at 4.5-4th(-12pts)Didnt get to the front and was poor.The winner was impossible to find but allowed a very easy win.A disappointing day!(-28pts)
4th September
420 Ascot-Its a slight rise in class but Early Morning looks very progressive.
Its latest run produced the best rating and speed figure in the race and providing the ground isnt too bad then it should go very close for a yard that have incredibly won with 4 of their last 8 runners.
Secret Brief has chances but looks slightly better at shorter on my figures.
Birdman should run its race and will be fine in the conditions.
Back Early Morning 10pts at 5.0-Non Runner
3rd September
440 Haydock-Chancery is consistent and is a course winner but it surely has its work cut out here,facing several improving rivals,off a mark 9Ibs higher than its ever won off.
Its also 0w-1p-6r during September and October,possibly suggesting its form tails off in the Autumn.Its certainly too short on my figures.
Fractal was close to being a back,as its looks overpriced to me.Its latest run giving the impression,its about to hit top form.
Its 3w-0p-5r in fields of 9 or less like this and 2 from 2 when returning to the track within 28 days.It must run well.
Penhill is progressive and looks bound to be on the premises.Its 3w-2p-6r in fields of 9 or less and the jockey and trainer are have a 23% strike rate when teaming up.
Master Of Finance has the ratings to figure at its best while from the same yard,Salieris Mass is totally unexposed.
3yo`s have won the last 5 runnings of this and its the only one of that age,in this contest.
Lay Chancery 20pts at 5.3-UP(+19pts after commission)Very Comfortable
*Cancel or Trade out if Fractal,Penhill or Salieris Mass dont run*
355 Sedgefield-Theres a chance that Swaledale Lad has gone backwards over hurdles,since it started chasing 2 years ago but there are bits and pieces of form,that give it every chance here.
Its a course winner and will like the ground,so at the prices,it has to be given a go.
I would like to see it jump out and try and make all.Its a good track for that.
The most likely winner is Baby Jake,who turns out here under a penalty after winning 11 days ago.
Richard Johnson is 3 from 8 for this yard but at 6/4,its no value at all.
Downtown Boy and Push Me have chances if at their best while Tiger Twenty Two is very lightly raced but has regressed in each of its 3 runs so far.
Back Swaledale Lad 7pts at 7.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 5.5)-UP(-7pts)Money for it but was just allowed to drift back through the field after looking a danger.(DT+12pts)
Monthly Total+43.5pts
Running Total+8441.72pts
2nd September
210 Southwell-Hopefully the rain stays away long enough for Tregaro to get its favoured good ground.
This horse returned to form last time,over this course and distance and that rating gives it a better shout than the current odds suggest.
This is its time of year(September 3w-1p-6r) and this horse has a preference for carrying a low weight(All wins 10.12 or less,Today 10.08)
It needs to be delivered late but has the right jockey in Brian Hughes for that.
Ballybogey looks the most solid rival to me,it won over course and distance 2 starts back and again ran well last time.
Amuse Me looks a poor favourite to me,it tends to operate at a lower level than this and is now 8Ibs above its last winning mark.
Quito Du Tresor has an inconclusive record after a break like today but its spent most of its career at a higher level and I would be concerned if the money came.
Back Tregaro 9pts at 5.5 at Corals(Accept 5.0)-Won(+31.5pts *1 non runner)Won pretty easy.
310 Southwell-Empty The Tank won its first race last time and now turns out for a different yard.
Its certainly got a chance but looks way too short to me.Its got a bit too find on my ratings and the speed figure for that last race was poor.
Mad Money looks a strong opponent,its performed well in its 2 starts here since coming over from Ireland and a repeat of its latest effort would see it go very close.
Significant Move is a frustrating horse that tends to post solid ratings but gets outpaced before running on at the death,it surely will win one of these soon.
Private Jones produced its best run for a while last time and has claims,if building on that.
Hi Tide is interesting,Its been showing precious little but at a higher level.Its only ever had just 3 runs in this grade from 32 starts.
The rating it posted on its last run in this class would win this and Aidan Coleman is an eye catching booking.
Lay Empty The Tank 20pts at 3.75(lay upto 4.3)-Wasnt Matched
Monthly Total+31.5pts
Running Total+8429.72pts
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