210 Stratford-A race lacking any strength in depth,the fact that Zen Factor is near the front of the betting says it all,a horse that is very inconsistent,no real history of going well fresh and 0wins-0places-8runs going left handed.2miles on good to soft ground is ideal for True Blue and anything close to his most recent run would be good enough.Be Definite is the main danger.
Back True Blue 12.5pts at 3.85-Fell(-12.5pts)Came down at the last when battling it out with the eventual winner,pretty unlucky considering the ground had probably got too soft as well.
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
31st October
320 Haydock-Allanard looks very strong here but is unlikely to reach the price I would require.Ballybough Gorta is an improving chaser whilst Satou and Buffalo Bob arent out of it.Vincitore ran quite well last time but with rain likely to fall,will leave it very vulnerable.
Lay Vincitore 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)Allanard ran a poor race so the lay was the right call.
345 Lingfield-Very competitve race but one in which I feel Daliance offers a bit of value.Estedaama is fav but will need to be at its sharpest back from a break to take this while the selection put up its best rating last time and its 2 runs over 12f have produced a win and a second,ive got Enery and Fleeting Image as the main dangers.
Back Daliance 6.5pts at 10.0-4th(-6.5pts)Was given an impossible task by its jockey,still sat in last 2f out and stormed home to nearly get 3rd.(DT+23.5pts)
Days total minus commission+ 22.32pts
Monthly Total+287.82pts
Running Total+4227.27pts
Lay Vincitore 30pts at 5.5-3rd(+30pts)Allanard ran a poor race so the lay was the right call.
345 Lingfield-Very competitve race but one in which I feel Daliance offers a bit of value.Estedaama is fav but will need to be at its sharpest back from a break to take this while the selection put up its best rating last time and its 2 runs over 12f have produced a win and a second,ive got Enery and Fleeting Image as the main dangers.
Back Daliance 6.5pts at 10.0-4th(-6.5pts)Was given an impossible task by its jockey,still sat in last 2f out and stormed home to nearly get 3rd.(DT+23.5pts)
Days total minus commission+ 22.32pts
Monthly Total+287.82pts
Running Total+4227.27pts
30th October
410 Yarmouth-This is a weak race which probably revolves around Barney Curley`s horse,Summersturm.If todays is the day for him to land a punt then hes probably found the right race.However its got no decent form on softish ground and because its taking a chunk of the market,im going to go with Baan,who achieved a good rating last time under similar conditions and has won at the track.
Back Baan 9pts at 5.5(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-9pts)Beaten by a horse stepping up in trip,that hadnt ran since April!
Monthly Total+265.50pts
Running Total+4204.95pts
Back Baan 9pts at 5.5(Accept 4.5)-2nd(-9pts)Beaten by a horse stepping up in trip,that hadnt ran since April!
Monthly Total+265.50pts
Running Total+4204.95pts
29th October
3.0 Bangor-Pretty uncompetitive race where realistically I can only see 2 possible winners.Basoda`s ratings made a big leap forwards last time on its first run after a wind operation.There are negatives however,12st4 is a lot of weight to carry,its best ratings have been on good ground and although it has won left handed,again its best performances have definitely been right handed,the trainer is 0/25 with his chasers at the track also.River D`or is inconsistent and certainly no win machine but it ran well last time and is top rated.
Back River D`or 20pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75) at Ladbrokes & Paddy Power-3rd(-20pts)Couldnt see this result to be honest and when Basoda started to back off out of the race,i thought there was only 1 winner.Wouldve like to have seen the jockey kick it on 4 out when it was clearly travelling best rather than continually waiting and then get done for toe.
Back River D`or 20pts at 4.5(Accept 3.75) at Ladbrokes & Paddy Power-3rd(-20pts)Couldnt see this result to be honest and when Basoda started to back off out of the race,i thought there was only 1 winner.Wouldve like to have seen the jockey kick it on 4 out when it was clearly travelling best rather than continually waiting and then get done for toe.
28th October
120 Wincanton-Adiynara should surely be fav here,1/1 over Course and distance,its only had 4 runs and its last rating is just about top rated.Grey Missile has a slightly better rating but from 2010,there has to be a big doubt of that being reproduced after 693 days off.I would be amazed if this doesnt shorten up.
Back Adiynara 8pts at 8.0 at Bet365 & Boylesports(Accept 6.0)-UP(-8pts)Didnt shorten like I thought nor did it perform like I thought,I dont think it jumped 1 hurdle properly.
110 Aintree-Vendor is incredibly short here and may well be better than these but there is some good value to be had with Skint,it makes its debut for Charlie Longsdon today,a trainer i really like.In fields of 10 or more its 3wins-2places-5runs but after a break of 80days or more its 3/3,so you would expect it to be at its best today,That may still not be good enough but the price is far too big to ignore.
Back Skint 4pts at 17.0-UP(-4pts)Conditions turned too very soft and it looked very hard work.Skint was there just before the home turn but was legless by the finish.(DT-12pts)
Monthly Total+294.50pts
Running Total+4233.95pts
Back Adiynara 8pts at 8.0 at Bet365 & Boylesports(Accept 6.0)-UP(-8pts)Didnt shorten like I thought nor did it perform like I thought,I dont think it jumped 1 hurdle properly.
110 Aintree-Vendor is incredibly short here and may well be better than these but there is some good value to be had with Skint,it makes its debut for Charlie Longsdon today,a trainer i really like.In fields of 10 or more its 3wins-2places-5runs but after a break of 80days or more its 3/3,so you would expect it to be at its best today,That may still not be good enough but the price is far too big to ignore.
Back Skint 4pts at 17.0-UP(-4pts)Conditions turned too very soft and it looked very hard work.Skint was there just before the home turn but was legless by the finish.(DT-12pts)
Monthly Total+294.50pts
Running Total+4233.95pts
27th October
145 Stratford-Ozeta could be anything here and was always going to be fav.Fashionable Gal is pretty solid and looks sure to run its race while Silver Gypsy wants a lot further than this.
Back Fashionable Gal 9pts at 6.0-Won & Lay Silver Gypsy 30pts at 6.0-3rd(+75pts)
220 Stratford-Unusually for a horse in selling grade.Esporao is very consistent and should prove too good for these.
Back Esporao 15pts at 3.35-UP(-15pts)Fairly typically chucked in its first bad run for a while(DT+60pts)
320 Stratford-Once again a horse(Natural High) is fav based on potential rather than what its actually done,it may win but in a fairly weak race,im going to side with Trip the Light,whos both wins have come in fields of over 10 runners and both on left handed tracks.There cant be many tracks where trainer Phil Middleton has a 36% strike rate with his hurdlers.
Back Trip the Light 6pts at 8.6-2nd(-6pts)Ran really well and was matched 1.4 in running but beaten by an unconsidered winner(DT+54pts)
355 Stratford-Theres been money for Roc De Guye and that means Full ov Beans has become a value price.It has a nice progressive profile since going over fences.
Back Full ov Beans 11pts at 4.5-Fell at the last when easily going to win(matched at 1.03)(-11pts)(DT+43pts)
Days total minus commission+40.85pts
Monthly Total+306.50pts
Running Total+4245.95pts
Back Fashionable Gal 9pts at 6.0-Won & Lay Silver Gypsy 30pts at 6.0-3rd(+75pts)
220 Stratford-Unusually for a horse in selling grade.Esporao is very consistent and should prove too good for these.
Back Esporao 15pts at 3.35-UP(-15pts)Fairly typically chucked in its first bad run for a while(DT+60pts)
320 Stratford-Once again a horse(Natural High) is fav based on potential rather than what its actually done,it may win but in a fairly weak race,im going to side with Trip the Light,whos both wins have come in fields of over 10 runners and both on left handed tracks.There cant be many tracks where trainer Phil Middleton has a 36% strike rate with his hurdlers.
Back Trip the Light 6pts at 8.6-2nd(-6pts)Ran really well and was matched 1.4 in running but beaten by an unconsidered winner(DT+54pts)
355 Stratford-Theres been money for Roc De Guye and that means Full ov Beans has become a value price.It has a nice progressive profile since going over fences.
Back Full ov Beans 11pts at 4.5-Fell at the last when easily going to win(matched at 1.03)(-11pts)(DT+43pts)
Days total minus commission+40.85pts
Monthly Total+306.50pts
Running Total+4245.95pts
26th October
235 Newcastle-Bob Will ran well last time but is a very inconsistent performer and a record of 1/24 speaks for itself.Im going to take it on with Coppers Gold,who goes well at the track,is 2wins-4places-9runs on good to soft,in fields of 0-9 runners its 2wins-4places-10runs and definitely has gained its best ratings after a break,41days or more 3wins-3places-11runs as opposed to 40 days or less 0wins-2places-11runs.
Back Coppers Gold 12pts at 5.0 at Bet365(Accept 4.0)-UP(-12pts)Really poor run and made worse that Bobs Will won the race
640 Wolverhampton-Fairly typical competitve AW race but one in which I think Kazbow is overpriced.It achieved the top rating last time and is very well handicapped having dropped 15Ibs in its last 5 runs.It can now drop back into a class 5 for the first time in 2 years.In this class its last 6 runs have yielded 2wins and 4 2nd places.I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.
Back Kazbow 6pts at 13.0 at Paddy Power(Accept 10.0)-UP(-6pts)Halved in price,so got that bit right but no good although it looked lame at the finish.(DT-18pts)
305 Fakenham-Laudatory is a strong traveller that often flatters to decieve.Im Happy to lay it in running.
Lay Laudatory 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)(DT+12pts)
710 Wolverhampton-Welsh Bard has been well supported and that has to be respected but it looks very short now.Wayne Manor is very solid and should run well but the fact that Ryan Moore travels on from Doncaster to get here on time to ride Saint Helena may be significant.Ive got it top rated but over a shorter trip,however its only ran once over tonights distance.Looks the value to me.
Back Saint Helena 6pts at 9.0-UP(-6pts)(DT+6pts)Rubbish tipping!
Days total minus commission+5.7pts
Monthly Total+265.65pts
Running Total+4205.10pts
Back Coppers Gold 12pts at 5.0 at Bet365(Accept 4.0)-UP(-12pts)Really poor run and made worse that Bobs Will won the race
640 Wolverhampton-Fairly typical competitve AW race but one in which I think Kazbow is overpriced.It achieved the top rating last time and is very well handicapped having dropped 15Ibs in its last 5 runs.It can now drop back into a class 5 for the first time in 2 years.In this class its last 6 runs have yielded 2wins and 4 2nd places.I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.
Back Kazbow 6pts at 13.0 at Paddy Power(Accept 10.0)-UP(-6pts)Halved in price,so got that bit right but no good although it looked lame at the finish.(DT-18pts)
305 Fakenham-Laudatory is a strong traveller that often flatters to decieve.Im Happy to lay it in running.
Lay Laudatory 30pts at 6.0-UP(+30pts)(DT+12pts)
710 Wolverhampton-Welsh Bard has been well supported and that has to be respected but it looks very short now.Wayne Manor is very solid and should run well but the fact that Ryan Moore travels on from Doncaster to get here on time to ride Saint Helena may be significant.Ive got it top rated but over a shorter trip,however its only ran once over tonights distance.Looks the value to me.
Back Saint Helena 6pts at 9.0-UP(-6pts)(DT+6pts)Rubbish tipping!
Days total minus commission+5.7pts
Monthly Total+265.65pts
Running Total+4205.10pts
25th October
430 Carlisle-Ahyaknowyerself should run well,it achieved the top rating last time over trip and ground.Pas Trop Tard is the main danger for me although Ballyclough is very unexposed.
Back Ahyaknowyerself 13pts at 3.65-Won(1 Non Runner +31pts)
Days total minus commission+29.45pts
Monthly Total+259.95pts
Running Total+4199.40pts
Back Ahyaknowyerself 13pts at 3.65-Won(1 Non Runner +31pts)
Days total minus commission+29.45pts
Monthly Total+259.95pts
Running Total+4199.40pts
24th October
210 Worcester-Competitive race in which I like Golden Chieftain,Current Event,Double Ross and Bennys Mist.George Nympton has a bit to find on my ratings.
Lay George Nympton 30pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
315 Worcester-Pretty dire race where I can only realistically see 2 possible winners.I hoped to get matched on the consistent Heezagrey last night but the price has moved in(Anything around 5.8 would be value),its sure to be right there but Magical Treasure has got the best rating from last season and has run quite well after a break before.
Back Magical Treasure 9pts at 6.6-5th(-9pts)Never really looked like winning
325 Fontwell-There are a couple of negatives in Its Like That`s profile but its just too big a price to ignore.Ran well last time after a break behind a subsequent winner.Venetian Lad goes well at the track but is short enough while River D`or has 1 rating from last year which wins this easily but theres a lot of doubt about it being reproduced.
Back Its Like That 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.0)-5th(-7pts)Ran a good race and looked a big danger coming into the straight but weakened very badly late on.(DT-16pts)
Lay George Nympton 30pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)
315 Worcester-Pretty dire race where I can only realistically see 2 possible winners.I hoped to get matched on the consistent Heezagrey last night but the price has moved in(Anything around 5.8 would be value),its sure to be right there but Magical Treasure has got the best rating from last season and has run quite well after a break before.
Back Magical Treasure 9pts at 6.6-5th(-9pts)Never really looked like winning
325 Fontwell-There are a couple of negatives in Its Like That`s profile but its just too big a price to ignore.Ran well last time after a break behind a subsequent winner.Venetian Lad goes well at the track but is short enough while River D`or has 1 rating from last year which wins this easily but theres a lot of doubt about it being reproduced.
Back Its Like That 7pts at 8.0(Accept 6.0)-5th(-7pts)Ran a good race and looked a big danger coming into the straight but weakened very badly late on.(DT-16pts)
22nd October
230 Windsor-Quite a difficult race to solve but I believe Toby Tyler is overpriced,Its ratings are right near the top but it seems more likely than most to reproduce them with a 2/5 record in October,2wins-1place-5runs on heavy ground and 6 wins over todays trip.Likely fav Blue Jack takes a drop in class but may not like the ground and is 0w-3p-15r over 6f.I feel Fathsta is the main danger with a solid 3w-1p-7r in this class.
Back Toby Tyler 7pts at 9.0-5th(-7pts)Backed into as low as 4.5 but never really looked like getting involved.Never closer than at the finish.
Back Toby Tyler 7pts at 9.0-5th(-7pts)Backed into as low as 4.5 but never really looked like getting involved.Never closer than at the finish.
20th October
145 Ascot-Opinion Poll is top rated and i like its chance after a break.2wins-2places-6runs after 80days or more,2wins-3places-5runs in Group 3 races.2w-1p-3r on soft/heavy ground,5w-2p-8r over 2miles and 1w-3p-5r at the course,it looks certain to go well.The ground looks certain to go against Colour Vision and Saddlers Rock.Aiken could be the possible danger stepping up in trip.
Back Opinion Poll 12pts at 4.3-UP(-12pts)Moved in and looked dangerous(matched at 2.2)but quickly stopped and was almost pulled up
305 Cheltenham-Quite possible that Dodging Bullets is in a different league but Hi Note is right there ratings wise and still improving.Its trainer is 4wins-2places with her last 8 runners.Its the value call in this race.
Back Hi Note 15pts at 5.0(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-15pts)Ran well maybe shouldve laid Baby Mix as didnt fancy that at all.(DT-27pts)
820 Wolverhampton-Quite competitve for a claimer with Red Cape,Wheres Reilly,Select Committee and Powerful Wind all holding chances while I feel Julius Geezer is vulnerable,looks like 6f is more its trip these days and its record from August to the end of the year is 0w-1p-9r.
Lay Julius Geezer 30pts at 5.6*2 non runners Revised* Lay 30pts at 4.1-UP(+30pts)(DT+3pts)
4.0 Catterick-I like Arley Halls chance here,only ran in class 6 races twice,resulting in a win and a 2nd.Clear top rated.
Back Arley Hall 20pts at 3.75-2nd(-20pts)Beaten by an outsider,very disappointed it wasnt good enough to win this.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total+253.50pts
Running Total+4192.95pts
Back Opinion Poll 12pts at 4.3-UP(-12pts)Moved in and looked dangerous(matched at 2.2)but quickly stopped and was almost pulled up
305 Cheltenham-Quite possible that Dodging Bullets is in a different league but Hi Note is right there ratings wise and still improving.Its trainer is 4wins-2places with her last 8 runners.Its the value call in this race.
Back Hi Note 15pts at 5.0(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-15pts)Ran well maybe shouldve laid Baby Mix as didnt fancy that at all.(DT-27pts)
820 Wolverhampton-Quite competitve for a claimer with Red Cape,Wheres Reilly,Select Committee and Powerful Wind all holding chances while I feel Julius Geezer is vulnerable,looks like 6f is more its trip these days and its record from August to the end of the year is 0w-1p-9r.
Lay Julius Geezer 30pts at 5.6*2 non runners Revised* Lay 30pts at 4.1-UP(+30pts)(DT+3pts)
4.0 Catterick-I like Arley Halls chance here,only ran in class 6 races twice,resulting in a win and a 2nd.Clear top rated.
Back Arley Hall 20pts at 3.75-2nd(-20pts)Beaten by an outsider,very disappointed it wasnt good enough to win this.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total+253.50pts
Running Total+4192.95pts
19th October
1230 Fakenham-This is a decent little race for this track and although I have a little niggling doubt that SentimentalJourney may not travel that well around this really sharp track,on pure ratings it has to be backed.Alpine Breeze is definitely the danger.
Back SentimentalJourney 15pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.85)-UP(-15pts)Unfortunately my doubt proved correct and Alpine Breeze a really unlucky last fence faller.
Back SentimentalJourney 15pts at 4.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.85)-UP(-15pts)Unfortunately my doubt proved correct and Alpine Breeze a really unlucky last fence faller.
18th October
310 Uttoxeter-Weak race,Notabotheronme has a decent chance but has a couple of negatives and is the right price.Salut Honore has a lot more little negatives mainly,October to December is 0/6,When carrying over 11st 0wins-1place-7runs and 0/3 after a break of 80 days or more.Ban Uisce looks like it doesnt get 3m but it actually has not tried it much and in its first start for a new trainer,may be up to it.Its has some positives in its profile,Racing after 41 days or more 2wins-2places-9runs,Heavy ground 2wins-1place-7runs and its sire has a 14% strike rate over this distance.
Back Ban Uisce 8pts 7.6(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-8pts)Ran a good race
440 Uttoxeter-Swift Arrow and Lukeys Luck looks very solid here while Bay Central is 0/7 after a break of 41 days or more and certainly wants better ground.
Lay Bay Central 30pts at 5.5-UP(Wasnt matched)
420 Wincanton-Ivors King stands out here and its last rating puts it nicely clear.
Back Ivors King 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)(DT+32pts)
Days total minus commission+30.40pts
Monthly Total+285.50pts
Running Total+4219.95pts
Back Ban Uisce 8pts 7.6(Accept 5.0)-3rd(-8pts)Ran a good race
440 Uttoxeter-Swift Arrow and Lukeys Luck looks very solid here while Bay Central is 0/7 after a break of 41 days or more and certainly wants better ground.
Lay Bay Central 30pts at 5.5-UP(Wasnt matched)
420 Wincanton-Ivors King stands out here and its last rating puts it nicely clear.
Back Ivors King 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)(DT+32pts)
Days total minus commission+30.40pts
Monthly Total+285.50pts
Running Total+4219.95pts
17th October
250 Wetherby-This is wide open,Tara Royal is just top rated but has no history of running to its mark fresh.Im going for at a much bigger price.Leldorado,who is 1/3 in October,after a break of 80 days or more its 2wins-0places-4runs,On softish ground its 2wins-1place-7runs and over 2miles 3wins-0places-9runs.
Back Leldorado 5pts at 15.0-4th(-5pts)Backed into 6.0 but didnt jump very well
520 Nottingham-Having a Good Time looks very vulnerable here because of the soft ground and I tried to lay this last night but not surprisingly,its on the drift.I like Mr Mo Jo,who is top rated with a nice progressive profile.
Back Mr Mo Jo 6pts at 9.0*7pts at 8.0 after non runners*-UP(-7pts)Horse stumbled and nearly went over as the stalls opened,didnt ran great but I doubt that helped.(DT-12pts)
Back Leldorado 5pts at 15.0-4th(-5pts)Backed into 6.0 but didnt jump very well
520 Nottingham-Having a Good Time looks very vulnerable here because of the soft ground and I tried to lay this last night but not surprisingly,its on the drift.I like Mr Mo Jo,who is top rated with a nice progressive profile.
Back Mr Mo Jo 6pts at 9.0*7pts at 8.0 after non runners*-UP(-7pts)Horse stumbled and nearly went over as the stalls opened,didnt ran great but I doubt that helped.(DT-12pts)
16th October
240 Leicester-Tunnager Grove stands out here and im a little surprised to have got my price matched overnight.Ive got it nearly a stone clear on my ratings.Trip and ground are fine.
Back Tunnager Grove 25pts at 3.0-Won(+50pts)
Days total minus commission+47.50pts
Monthly Total+267.10pts
Running Total+4191.55pts
Back Tunnager Grove 25pts at 3.0-Won(+50pts)
Days total minus commission+47.50pts
Monthly Total+267.10pts
Running Total+4191.55pts
15th October
450 Musselburgh-Very competitive race and the last time out winner for the blog,I`ll be Good should go well but is possibly a little shorter than ive got it.Im going to take a chance on Igoyougo,who has run well fresh before,is a CD winner,in fields of 10 to 15 runners its 3wins-1place-10runs and is 2/7 on good to soft ground.If it is fit,its a massive price.
Back Igoyougo 5pts at 25(Accept 17.0)-Non Runner
440 Windsor-Surprised to see Cyril the Squirrel near the front of the market,no form at all on heavy ground and a below par run last time.Lutine Charlie is the solid horse in the race while Ever Fortune could be much better than these ,having only had 2 starts.
Lay Cyril the Squirrel 30pts at 3.75-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+219.60pts
Running total+4144.05pts
Back Igoyougo 5pts at 25(Accept 17.0)-Non Runner
440 Windsor-Surprised to see Cyril the Squirrel near the front of the market,no form at all on heavy ground and a below par run last time.Lutine Charlie is the solid horse in the race while Ever Fortune could be much better than these ,having only had 2 starts.
Lay Cyril the Squirrel 30pts at 3.75-UP(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+219.60pts
Running total+4144.05pts
13th October
320 Hexham-Eyre Apparent is just top rated but has some negatives in its profile of 0wins-2places-11runs when carrying over 11st 8Ibs and after a break of 41 days or more its 0wins-0places-7runs.It may still win but at 2/1 im happy to look elsewhere.Tipsy Dara is close behind on ratings but is fav on my tissue thanks to a very positive profile,Lucy Alexander is 2w-1p-5r on it,after a break of 41 days or more its 2w-0p-4r,on heavy ground its 2w-1p-4r and its a CD winner.I expect Saddle Pack to need the run also.
Back Tipsy Dara 12pts at 5.5(Accept 4.0)-Won(+54pts)Every winner is nice but when they get backed into the price you have on your own tissue then its even more rewarding!
515 Newmarket-On jockey bookings for Godolphin,Quick Wit is not the first choice,Dettori is on the pretty solid French Navy and Barzalona is on the very difficult to assess Mandaean but on my ratings Quick Wit has a decent chance,its also 2w-1p-4r in October and 4w-3p-13r in fields of 10 to 15 runners.Stipulate and Bronze Angel look dangers.
Back Quick Wit 7pts at 10.0 with Paddy Power-UP(-7pts)Ran poorly but it had became evident during the day that the near rail was the place to be at Newmarket so being drawn on the other side was a big negative.(DT+47pts)
715 Wolverhampton-Goal looks a decent price here after returning to form last time,it is inconsistent so whether it reproduces it is unknown but it goes well at the track and is 3w-3p-13r in class 6 races.Kathleensluckylad and Neige D`antan are the obvious dangers.
Back Goal 8pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Ran a good race,jockey gave it every chance(DT+39pts)
Days total minus commission+37.05pts
Monthly Total+191.10pts
Running Total+4115.55pts
Back Tipsy Dara 12pts at 5.5(Accept 4.0)-Won(+54pts)Every winner is nice but when they get backed into the price you have on your own tissue then its even more rewarding!
515 Newmarket-On jockey bookings for Godolphin,Quick Wit is not the first choice,Dettori is on the pretty solid French Navy and Barzalona is on the very difficult to assess Mandaean but on my ratings Quick Wit has a decent chance,its also 2w-1p-4r in October and 4w-3p-13r in fields of 10 to 15 runners.Stipulate and Bronze Angel look dangers.
Back Quick Wit 7pts at 10.0 with Paddy Power-UP(-7pts)Ran poorly but it had became evident during the day that the near rail was the place to be at Newmarket so being drawn on the other side was a big negative.(DT+47pts)
715 Wolverhampton-Goal looks a decent price here after returning to form last time,it is inconsistent so whether it reproduces it is unknown but it goes well at the track and is 3w-3p-13r in class 6 races.Kathleensluckylad and Neige D`antan are the obvious dangers.
Back Goal 8pts at 6.6(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Ran a good race,jockey gave it every chance(DT+39pts)
Days total minus commission+37.05pts
Monthly Total+191.10pts
Running Total+4115.55pts
12th October
230 York-Beaten Up looks fav because of last seasons form,certainly not this seasons ratings,added to that it has no form on soft.Prince Siegfried,Mijhaar have chances but the one with the most upside is Model Pupil,who hasnt been since May but has won after a break and looked very progressive.
Back Model Pupil 10pts at 4.5(Non Runner) & Lay Beaten Up 30pts at 4.5-3rd(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+154.50pts
Running Total+4078.50pts
Back Model Pupil 10pts at 4.5(Non Runner) & Lay Beaten Up 30pts at 4.5-3rd(+30pts)
Days total minus commission+28.50pts
Monthly Total+154.50pts
Running Total+4078.50pts
11th October
320 Exeter-Tim the Chair is the early fav but I feel its vulnerable as it has a poor record first time out.The Racing Post put up Chasers Chance but its record when returning after a break of 29 days or more is 0wins-1place-16runs,it has to improve anyway.Its Like That achieves its best ratings in the spring so,Ammunition gets the vote,top rated with a decent record at the course of 2wins-5places-10runs and 2wins-2places-4runs in October,it has also run some very good races fresh.I would not be surprised if this ended up as a fav.
Back Ammunition 20pts at 3.5 at Paddy Power(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-20pts)Called the market correct but not the result unfortunately
*Taking longer than expected to get this blog rolling as a subscription service.Elite Betting(or Gambling system reviews as they are about to change to) are having problems with clickbank ,who allow the payments through the site apparently,so it may be a free service for a while yet.*
Back Ammunition 20pts at 3.5 at Paddy Power(Accept 3.0)-2nd(-20pts)Called the market correct but not the result unfortunately
*Taking longer than expected to get this blog rolling as a subscription service.Elite Betting(or Gambling system reviews as they are about to change to) are having problems with clickbank ,who allow the payments through the site apparently,so it may be a free service for a while yet.*
9th October
310 Leicester-Only 2 horses have won in this race and John Gosden dropping Arctic Galaxy into a seller will hopefully take a chunk out of the market as I like Priestleys Reward,who not surprisingly in this grade is inconsistent but gained its best rating on soft ground and around this trip.
Back Priestleys Reward 12pts at 4.3-4th(-12pts)Looked a big danger 2f out but just plugged on.
530 Wolverhampton-Danas Present is the obvious fav but is very short as it may be a little better at Kempton.Source of Light has been running quite solid ratings and from a pure value perspective,is a big price.
Back Source of light 5pts at 16.0-5th(-5pts)(DT-17pts)
7.0 Wolverhampton-Wasnt expecting to get matched on Moderator but its form took a giant leap forwards last time and it achieved a rating far superior to its rivals.Slight step up in trip and a different surface to contend with but anything close to the last run should be good enough.
Back Moderator 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)Beaten by a 40/1 outsider(-34.5pts)
Monthly Total+145.55pts
Running Total+4070.00pts
Back Priestleys Reward 12pts at 4.3-4th(-12pts)Looked a big danger 2f out but just plugged on.
530 Wolverhampton-Danas Present is the obvious fav but is very short as it may be a little better at Kempton.Source of Light has been running quite solid ratings and from a pure value perspective,is a big price.
Back Source of light 5pts at 16.0-5th(-5pts)(DT-17pts)
7.0 Wolverhampton-Wasnt expecting to get matched on Moderator but its form took a giant leap forwards last time and it achieved a rating far superior to its rivals.Slight step up in trip and a different surface to contend with but anything close to the last run should be good enough.
Back Moderator 17.5pts at 3.0-2nd(-17.5pts)Beaten by a 40/1 outsider(-34.5pts)
Monthly Total+145.55pts
Running Total+4070.00pts
7th October
405 Kelso-Lively Baron is quite solid here,Top Rated,it has run well fresh before,has a nice record of 3wins-1place-5runs in October & November while Jason Maguire is 4wins-1place-7runs on it.Bocciani should go well but has to prove 3m is what it wants.
Back Lively Baron 13pts at 6.0-Won(+65pts)I knew it was a big price but not sure even I expected an SP of 13/8
550 Huntingdon-Weak race.On Alert is fav probably by process of elimination and it has progression in its ratings.However it is very short.At a much bigger price,Moon Melody has some negatives in its profile but O`Regan is the perfect jockey booking for this horse.It has the ratings to win this if he can get a tune out of it.
Back Moon Melody 7pts at 9.0-Non Runner
Days total minus commission+61.75pts
Monthly Total+180.05pts
Running Total+4104.50pts
Back Lively Baron 13pts at 6.0-Won(+65pts)I knew it was a big price but not sure even I expected an SP of 13/8
550 Huntingdon-Weak race.On Alert is fav probably by process of elimination and it has progression in its ratings.However it is very short.At a much bigger price,Moon Melody has some negatives in its profile but O`Regan is the perfect jockey booking for this horse.It has the ratings to win this if he can get a tune out of it.
Back Moon Melody 7pts at 9.0-Non Runner
Days total minus commission+61.75pts
Monthly Total+180.05pts
Running Total+4104.50pts
6th October
310 Redcar-Although carrying a penalty,Fullbright looks solid here.Very consistent,2/3 on soft and 2wins-1place-4runs at Listed level.The Inconsistent Eton Forever has 1 rating that would prove difficult to beat but whether it reproduces it is open to question.
Back Fullbright 12pts at 4.3*Revised due to NR 12pts at 4.0*-UP(-12pts)
555 Redcar-El Mcglynn is the obvious starting point and should run well but at a much bigger price,I like I`ll be Good who burst into form last Autumn on soft ground and has been running over further than its best rating.
Back I`ll be Good 7pts at 9.0*Revised due to NR 8pts at 7.6*-Won(+52.5pts)(DT+40.5pts)
850 Wolverhampton-Glass Mountain looks interesting here for a stable that likes to have a punt,2/3 in October,it got a decent rating last time over 7f(staying on) and back over a trip its won at,I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.Fame Again and Justbookie dot com are the obvious dangers.
Back Glass Mountain 8pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-3rd(-8pts)(DT+32.5pts)
Days total minus commission+30.88pts
Monthly Total+118.30pts
Running Total+4043.75pts
Back Fullbright 12pts at 4.3*Revised due to NR 12pts at 4.0*-UP(-12pts)
555 Redcar-El Mcglynn is the obvious starting point and should run well but at a much bigger price,I like I`ll be Good who burst into form last Autumn on soft ground and has been running over further than its best rating.
Back I`ll be Good 7pts at 9.0*Revised due to NR 8pts at 7.6*-Won(+52.5pts)(DT+40.5pts)
850 Wolverhampton-Glass Mountain looks interesting here for a stable that likes to have a punt,2/3 in October,it got a decent rating last time over 7f(staying on) and back over a trip its won at,I would be surprised if this didnt shorten up.Fame Again and Justbookie dot com are the obvious dangers.
Back Glass Mountain 8pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-3rd(-8pts)(DT+32.5pts)
Days total minus commission+30.88pts
Monthly Total+118.30pts
Running Total+4043.75pts
5th October
5.0 Fontwell-This looks a 2 horse race between Double Chocolate and Nudge and Nurdle.Both have similar ratings but the sheer consistency of Double Chocolate appeals more.Its also 3wins-3places-9runs in fields of 9 or less,2wins-1place-4runs on good to soft and its 2/3 at Fontwell and over 3m2f.Nudge and Nurdle may just be best after a bigger break than it gets today.
Back Double Chocolate 13.5pts at 3.65*1 NR now so revised to 17.5pts at 3.0*-Won(+35pts)
555 Hexham-As weak a race as you can find and a great opportunity for Whiskey Galore to finally get its head in front.Its clear on my ratings and will handle the ground.
Back Whiskey Galore 20pts at 3.0-2nd(-20pts)Not my finest hour putting this longstanding maiden up as a selection ,regardless of ratings.(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Monthly Total+87.42pts
Running Total+4012.87pts
Back Double Chocolate 13.5pts at 3.65*1 NR now so revised to 17.5pts at 3.0*-Won(+35pts)
555 Hexham-As weak a race as you can find and a great opportunity for Whiskey Galore to finally get its head in front.Its clear on my ratings and will handle the ground.
Back Whiskey Galore 20pts at 3.0-2nd(-20pts)Not my finest hour putting this longstanding maiden up as a selection ,regardless of ratings.(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Monthly Total+87.42pts
Running Total+4012.87pts
4th October
350 Bangor-Lots with chances,Henry San achieved a good rating last time on its debut over fences and should improve,Humbel Ben is top rated and 1/1 at Bangor.Silver Roque has been well supported overnight and Benefique although with a bit to find on ratings is 2wins-1place-4runs when returning after a break of 80 days or more.Carleton Place likes fast ground but there are already soft patches added to the forecast rain means its very vulnerable.
Lay Carleton Place 30pts at 6.0=UP(+30pts)
840 Wolverhampton-Incendo incredibly drops 4 grades into this class 6(actually ran in a group race 2 runs back) and looks the one to beat.Just Lille is a real force in this grade and is the obvious danger.
Back Incendo 25pts at 3.0-Won(Easy winner but didnt get matched unfortunately)
Days total minus commission+28.5pts
Monthly Total+73.17pts
Running Total+3998.62pts
Lay Carleton Place 30pts at 6.0=UP(+30pts)
840 Wolverhampton-Incendo incredibly drops 4 grades into this class 6(actually ran in a group race 2 runs back) and looks the one to beat.Just Lille is a real force in this grade and is the obvious danger.
Back Incendo 25pts at 3.0-Won(Easy winner but didnt get matched unfortunately)
Days total minus commission+28.5pts
Monthly Total+73.17pts
Running Total+3998.62pts
3rd October
3.0 Salisbury-No Compromise and Cufflink head the market but both look vulnerable to me.Cufflink isnt proven over the trip and doesnt have a decent topspeed figure to its name while No Compromise has a rating 3 runs back that would make it difficult to beat but hasnt reproduced it so there could be a turn up.Emerald Invader produced a decent rating last time over trip and ground and has had only 5 runs,so there could be more to come.
Back Emerald Invader 10pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-UP(-10pts)Travelled well but found nothing.
345 Newcastle-Mango Music is inconsistent but also unexposed over 7f,its record of 6wins-1place-14runs in class 5 races also looks solid.See Clearly is the main danger.
Back Mango Music 8.5pts at 5.8-UP(-8.5pts)Similar to above(DT-18.5pts)
Monthly Total+44.67pts
Running Total+3970.12pts
Back Emerald Invader 10pts at 9.0(Accept 7.0)-UP(-10pts)Travelled well but found nothing.
345 Newcastle-Mango Music is inconsistent but also unexposed over 7f,its record of 6wins-1place-14runs in class 5 races also looks solid.See Clearly is the main danger.
Back Mango Music 8.5pts at 5.8-UP(-8.5pts)Similar to above(DT-18.5pts)
Monthly Total+44.67pts
Running Total+3970.12pts
2nd October
320 Sedgefield-Quite a tight little race where Tregaro,The Fox`s Decree and Earl Grez hold the best chance.Bit surprised to see Sparkling Tara close to the front of the market,its 8lbs behind the mentioned on my ratings and when carrying over 11st8 is 0wins-1place-9runs.
Lay Sparkling Tara 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)
330 Wolverhampton-Was orginally going to lay Solar Deity as it has a bit to find on my ratings but its ran well after a break before and Marco Bottis yard dont mind a punt,so im a little wary of it.Instead im going for Fast Finian,whos proven on the surface and very progressive.
Back Fast Finian 8.5pts at 5.7*Revised after non runner now 11.5pts at 4.5)*-2nd(-11.5pts)Ran well and touched 1.8 in running(+18.5pts)
440 Ayr-Ive got this between Muffin Mcleay and Calaf.With Muffin the right price,Calaf is the value call.
Back Calaf 12pts at 4.3-Won(1 Non runner +33pts)(DT+51.5pts)
Days total minus commission+48.92pts
Monthly Total+63.17pts
Running Total+3988.62pts
Lay Sparkling Tara 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)
330 Wolverhampton-Was orginally going to lay Solar Deity as it has a bit to find on my ratings but its ran well after a break before and Marco Bottis yard dont mind a punt,so im a little wary of it.Instead im going for Fast Finian,whos proven on the surface and very progressive.
Back Fast Finian 8.5pts at 5.7*Revised after non runner now 11.5pts at 4.5)*-2nd(-11.5pts)Ran well and touched 1.8 in running(+18.5pts)
440 Ayr-Ive got this between Muffin Mcleay and Calaf.With Muffin the right price,Calaf is the value call.
Back Calaf 12pts at 4.3-Won(1 Non runner +33pts)(DT+51.5pts)
Days total minus commission+48.92pts
Monthly Total+63.17pts
Running Total+3988.62pts
1st October
330 Newton Abbot-The soft ground is a slight negative for Gud Day but it looks to hold a good chance otherwise.Very few horses in the race are proven on the ground either apart from handicap debutant Regal One,who is probably my main danger.
Back Gud Day 15pts at 3.35-3rd(-15pts)Ran an odd race,losing its place before staying on again.
430 Newton Abbot-Absolute Shambles is pretty solid here while Backfromthecongo although inconsistent is not without a chance plus the difficult to assess Thirtytwo Red had been very supported this morning.Civil Servant is 0wins-1place-6runs on soft and 0wins-1place-12runs when returning after 40days or more.
Lay Civil Servant 30pts at 4.5-UP(+30pts)(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Running Total+3939.70pts
Back Gud Day 15pts at 3.35-3rd(-15pts)Ran an odd race,losing its place before staying on again.
430 Newton Abbot-Absolute Shambles is pretty solid here while Backfromthecongo although inconsistent is not without a chance plus the difficult to assess Thirtytwo Red had been very supported this morning.Civil Servant is 0wins-1place-6runs on soft and 0wins-1place-12runs when returning after 40days or more.
Lay Civil Servant 30pts at 4.5-UP(+30pts)(DT+15pts)
Days total minus commission+14.25pts
Running Total+3939.70pts
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