330 Hereford-Goodtoknow bounced back to form last time and stands out here on that rating.
Its last 4 runs have all been in a higher grade and the last 2 times its raced in a class 3,it won both times.
Heavy ground is ideal (3w-1p-6r) and ive got it a stronger favourite than it currently is.
Back Goodtoknow 13pts at 3.75 at Corals/Paddys/skybet-Won(+52pts *BOG*)Always looked like winning and had a nice pre race drift as well.
Monthly Total+52pts
Running Total+8694.17pts
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
31st January
No value on the horses that I can see but a couple of football bets.
Italy(Coppa Italia)
Inter Milan v Lazio-Back Inter Milan 15pts at 10/11-lost
England(Premier League)
Swansea v Southampton/Stoke v Everton
Back Southampton and Everton in a 5pts Double(Pays 11/2)-Lost(DT-20pts)
Italy(Coppa Italia)
Inter Milan v Lazio-Back Inter Milan 15pts at 10/11-lost
England(Premier League)
Swansea v Southampton/Stoke v Everton
Back Southampton and Everton in a 5pts Double(Pays 11/2)-Lost(DT-20pts)
29th January
No Horses today.I thought Venetian Lad(340 Fontwell) had a chance but Im concerned about the trip while Wish In a Well(210 Fontwell) will win if it reproduces its latest effort but im not sure that it will.
28th January
155 Doncaster-Im Surprised to see Gardefort trading at such a big price.
This horse ran well last time behind a big Improver and that rating puts it right in the mix here.
Its at its best after a little break(30 days+ 2w-0p-4r) and it should easily outrun its odds.
Cyrius Moriviere has failed to get round on its last 3 starts and hasnt as of yet,produced a rating that gets it close to the best of these,so it looks far too short in the market.
Upsilon Bleu ran well last time and has chances while Yorkist and Double W`s are respected.
Back Gardefort 7pts at 9.5 at Paddys-4th(-7pts)Cyrius Moriviere was well stuffed but Gardefort srayed on too late.
230 Doncaster-For a horse that apparently is more at home on better ground,Back A Hare Breath posted a fine rating on very soft ground on its debut over fences last time.
With improvement expected for the experience and faster terrain then this horse should be clear fav.
In the last 5 years,no horse carrying penalties taking it to 11st7 have managed to win so that puts Cloudy Dream and Marracudja up against it.
Forest Bihan is the other in the field and it is slowly improving.
Back A Hare Breath 16pts at 3.25 at Ladbrokes/Coral-3rd(-16pts)Well backed but not good enough!
245 Uttoxeter-Le Rocher is the most likely winner but is priced accordingly especially as it hasnt proved its stamina over this trip.
Tintern Theatre makes its handicap debut and is expected to improve while Theatrebar won on its first start for the Skelton yard and has chances although this is 2 grades up for it.
The value lies with Shades Of Midnight,who has a interesting profile.
Its not quite captured last seasons form but this horse normally finds its form at the turn of the year(Jan-Apr 5w-3p-9r compared to 0w-1p-7r the rest of the year).
Its record on soft/heavy ground is 4w-2p-9r and returning to the track within 60 days is 5w-2p-11r.
It may be a touch too high in the weights but it has to be supported at the prices.
Back Shades of Midnight 5pts at 11.0 at Corals/Betvictor-4th(-5pts)Hopeless day...Hopeless Week!(DT-28pts)
Monthly Total+33.9pts
Running Total+8662.17pts
This horse ran well last time behind a big Improver and that rating puts it right in the mix here.
Its at its best after a little break(30 days+ 2w-0p-4r) and it should easily outrun its odds.
Cyrius Moriviere has failed to get round on its last 3 starts and hasnt as of yet,produced a rating that gets it close to the best of these,so it looks far too short in the market.
Upsilon Bleu ran well last time and has chances while Yorkist and Double W`s are respected.
Back Gardefort 7pts at 9.5 at Paddys-4th(-7pts)Cyrius Moriviere was well stuffed but Gardefort srayed on too late.
230 Doncaster-For a horse that apparently is more at home on better ground,Back A Hare Breath posted a fine rating on very soft ground on its debut over fences last time.
With improvement expected for the experience and faster terrain then this horse should be clear fav.
In the last 5 years,no horse carrying penalties taking it to 11st7 have managed to win so that puts Cloudy Dream and Marracudja up against it.
Forest Bihan is the other in the field and it is slowly improving.
Back A Hare Breath 16pts at 3.25 at Ladbrokes/Coral-3rd(-16pts)Well backed but not good enough!
245 Uttoxeter-Le Rocher is the most likely winner but is priced accordingly especially as it hasnt proved its stamina over this trip.
Tintern Theatre makes its handicap debut and is expected to improve while Theatrebar won on its first start for the Skelton yard and has chances although this is 2 grades up for it.
The value lies with Shades Of Midnight,who has a interesting profile.
Its not quite captured last seasons form but this horse normally finds its form at the turn of the year(Jan-Apr 5w-3p-9r compared to 0w-1p-7r the rest of the year).
Its record on soft/heavy ground is 4w-2p-9r and returning to the track within 60 days is 5w-2p-11r.
It may be a touch too high in the weights but it has to be supported at the prices.
Back Shades of Midnight 5pts at 11.0 at Corals/Betvictor-4th(-5pts)Hopeless day...Hopeless Week!(DT-28pts)
Monthly Total+33.9pts
Running Total+8662.17pts
27th January
415 Taunton-3 horse race for me.
Clic Work is a big runner after winning on its chase debut while Mad Jack Mytton is very lightly raced in recent seasons and could improve back at 2 miles but the clear value has to be Dream Bolt.
This horse returned from 16 months absence to win a decent race last time and beat into 2nd Ubaltique,who followed up last Saturday.
It just heads my ratings but it also produced a monster speed figure suggesting there was a lot more in its locker and providing it doesnt bounce,on its 2nd run back then it should go close.
Back Dream Bolt 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-Non Runner
FOOTBALL
(Serie A)-Sunday
Torino v Atalanta-Back Atalanta(Draw No Bet) 15pts at 11/10 at Various Bookies-Draw(=Stake Returned)
Clic Work is a big runner after winning on its chase debut while Mad Jack Mytton is very lightly raced in recent seasons and could improve back at 2 miles but the clear value has to be Dream Bolt.
This horse returned from 16 months absence to win a decent race last time and beat into 2nd Ubaltique,who followed up last Saturday.
It just heads my ratings but it also produced a monster speed figure suggesting there was a lot more in its locker and providing it doesnt bounce,on its 2nd run back then it should go close.
Back Dream Bolt 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-Non Runner
FOOTBALL
(Serie A)-Sunday
Torino v Atalanta-Back Atalanta(Draw No Bet) 15pts at 11/10 at Various Bookies-Draw(=Stake Returned)
25th January
400 Ludlow-I do have a couple of reservations about Seas of Green but this horse tops my ratings and the price is just too big to ignore.
It never got going last season but returned to form last time out,on its second start this season.
That rating makes it very competitive here,if it can back it up.
It is 0/3 going right handed and has a higher mark to contend with but im happy to see what it can do with conditions ideal for it.
Tara Mist looks a danger although very soft ground is a question mark.
It returns after over a year off but that normally suits it(121 days+ 2w-1p-3r),is 2 from 3 at Ludlow and 2/2 in this grade.However,Its not quite a big enough price to get involved.
Toberdowney and Star Rider both make their handicap debuts and they head the market.
Both need to improve on what they`ve done so far but the market will tell their tale.
Back Seas Of Green 6pts at 9.0 at Betfair Sportsbook/Betway/Paddys-4th(-6pts)Tara Mist won.
It never got going last season but returned to form last time out,on its second start this season.
That rating makes it very competitive here,if it can back it up.
It is 0/3 going right handed and has a higher mark to contend with but im happy to see what it can do with conditions ideal for it.
Tara Mist looks a danger although very soft ground is a question mark.
It returns after over a year off but that normally suits it(121 days+ 2w-1p-3r),is 2 from 3 at Ludlow and 2/2 in this grade.However,Its not quite a big enough price to get involved.
Toberdowney and Star Rider both make their handicap debuts and they head the market.
Both need to improve on what they`ve done so far but the market will tell their tale.
Back Seas Of Green 6pts at 9.0 at Betfair Sportsbook/Betway/Paddys-4th(-6pts)Tara Mist won.
24th January
220 Leicester-Although it has a fair bit of experience over fences,La Vaticane produced a career best last time out and that rating stands out here.
It finished behind another of todays rivals 3 starts back(Desert Queen) but was hampered and is now 10Ibs better off,so must hold a good chance and reversing that form.
The trainer has a 35% strike rate here in recent times.
Unless Tagarita improves a fair bit then Desert Queen looks the main danger.
Back La Vaticane 16pts at 3.25 at Hills-4th(-16pts)Got the right end of the prices again but this hasnt ran its race(again).Never got involved.
Monthly Total+67.90pts
Running Total+8696.17pts
It finished behind another of todays rivals 3 starts back(Desert Queen) but was hampered and is now 10Ibs better off,so must hold a good chance and reversing that form.
The trainer has a 35% strike rate here in recent times.
Unless Tagarita improves a fair bit then Desert Queen looks the main danger.
Back La Vaticane 16pts at 3.25 at Hills-4th(-16pts)Got the right end of the prices again but this hasnt ran its race(again).Never got involved.
Monthly Total+67.90pts
Running Total+8696.17pts
23rd January
250 Bangor-Im surprised that Whisky Chaser isnt clear favourite for this.
It returned to form last time and even that rating gives it a very good chance but the application of cheek pieces for the first time,could see it hit the heights of last term and that would make it very difficult to beat.
It appears to get better the longer the jumps season goes on(Record Between January-March over fences 4-U/S-1-2-1-1-2) and is 3w-1p-6r when returning to the track within 30 days.
Moorlands Mist looks the main danger unless Drumviredy improves a fair bit for the step up in trip.
Back Whisky Chaser 14pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-Pulled UP(-14pts)Backed into as short as 13/8 but receieved a very poor ride in my opinion,getting involved in a speed duel up front & was legless 4 out.
310 Newcastle-Bigirononhiship has made a good start to its chasing career and looks progressive enough to take this race.
This consistent sort has its ideal conditions and I expect it to come in for some strong market support.
No Planning is a threat after coming back to form last and is likely to be better over this extra distance but it is 0w-0p-3r at this track.
Fayette County looks to have its share of weight while Angus Milan looks an incredibly short price on what its done so far.
Back Bigirononhiship 14 pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-Refused to race(-14pts)Backed into 7/4 but didnt want to race.The whole thing leaves a bitter taste to be honest.(DT-28pts)
It returned to form last time and even that rating gives it a very good chance but the application of cheek pieces for the first time,could see it hit the heights of last term and that would make it very difficult to beat.
It appears to get better the longer the jumps season goes on(Record Between January-March over fences 4-U/S-1-2-1-1-2) and is 3w-1p-6r when returning to the track within 30 days.
Moorlands Mist looks the main danger unless Drumviredy improves a fair bit for the step up in trip.
Back Whisky Chaser 14pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-Pulled UP(-14pts)Backed into as short as 13/8 but receieved a very poor ride in my opinion,getting involved in a speed duel up front & was legless 4 out.
310 Newcastle-Bigirononhiship has made a good start to its chasing career and looks progressive enough to take this race.
This consistent sort has its ideal conditions and I expect it to come in for some strong market support.
No Planning is a threat after coming back to form last and is likely to be better over this extra distance but it is 0w-0p-3r at this track.
Fayette County looks to have its share of weight while Angus Milan looks an incredibly short price on what its done so far.
Back Bigirononhiship 14 pts at 4.5 at Various Bookies-Refused to race(-14pts)Backed into 7/4 but didnt want to race.The whole thing leaves a bitter taste to be honest.(DT-28pts)
22nd January
230 Fontwell-Hard to imagine a worse race than this but something has to win it.
Shanann Star has the best recent form and thats probably why its so short in the market but it is 0/12 over fences and if Veauce De Sivola can bounce back to some sort of form then it wont see which way it goes.
Its quite possible that what little ability the selection had,has gone but at the prices im happy to see if,having a second run back after a long break and having Tom Cannon back on board,can see this well handicapped animal bounce back.
Its the only winner in the race on heavy ground and anything close to last seasons best runs would see it win this.
I really feel that where the money goes in the betting market will give a good indication to whats expected,so I would like to see a little support.
Hinton Indiana pulled up last time and is a much better horse on faster ground.
Back Veauce De Sivola 6pts at 10.0 at Bet365/Betvictor/Ladbrokes -Meeting Abandoned
Shanann Star has the best recent form and thats probably why its so short in the market but it is 0/12 over fences and if Veauce De Sivola can bounce back to some sort of form then it wont see which way it goes.
Its quite possible that what little ability the selection had,has gone but at the prices im happy to see if,having a second run back after a long break and having Tom Cannon back on board,can see this well handicapped animal bounce back.
Its the only winner in the race on heavy ground and anything close to last seasons best runs would see it win this.
I really feel that where the money goes in the betting market will give a good indication to whats expected,so I would like to see a little support.
Hinton Indiana pulled up last time and is a much better horse on faster ground.
Back Veauce De Sivola 6pts at 10.0 at Bet365/Betvictor/Ladbrokes -Meeting Abandoned
21st January
350 Haydock-Ulbaltique won this race last year and January is clearly the time to catch it(3w-2p-5r).
Conditions are ideal and so is the likely pace battle up front as this horse arrives late on the scene.
Its possible the more lightly raced Wuff or Pistol Park could prove too good but its a big enough price to find out.
Back Ubaltique 6pts at 7.5 at skybet-Won(+39pts)Probably got there a little sooner than ideal but always looked like winning
Football
Crystal Palace v Everton-Back Everton 12pts at 7/5 at Various bookies-Won(+16.80pts)
Chievo v Fiorentina-Back Fiorentina 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies-Won(+15.6pts)
Back Liverpool-Roma-Arsenal-Chelsea-Atalanta in a 6pt Acca(Pays 3/1)-Lost(-6pts)(DT+65.40pts)
Monthly Total+111.90pts
Running Total+8736.17pts
Conditions are ideal and so is the likely pace battle up front as this horse arrives late on the scene.
Its possible the more lightly raced Wuff or Pistol Park could prove too good but its a big enough price to find out.
Back Ubaltique 6pts at 7.5 at skybet-Won(+39pts)Probably got there a little sooner than ideal but always looked like winning
Football
Crystal Palace v Everton-Back Everton 12pts at 7/5 at Various bookies-Won(+16.80pts)
Chievo v Fiorentina-Back Fiorentina 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies-Won(+15.6pts)
Back Liverpool-Roma-Arsenal-Chelsea-Atalanta in a 6pt Acca(Pays 3/1)-Lost(-6pts)(DT+65.40pts)
Monthly Total+111.90pts
Running Total+8736.17pts
20th January
425 Chepstow-If Gardiners Hill turns up in the same form as last time, when winning after 6 months off and over 3 miles then it will follow up here.
However,this is just 9 days later and even when it was running in point to points,all its best form was over 3 miles and ive got it a much worse horse over todays trip of two and a half miles,its also ran 2 poor races around this track before,so at 6/4,its worth taking on.
This is incredibly weak though,so opposition is thin on the ground but its difficult to see how Bredon Hill Lad cant be involved in the finish.
It wants bottomless ground(Soft/heavy 6w3p-20r) and is 4w-3p-14r when running again within 30 days like today but the stat that jumps out at me is its record when dropping into a class 5 over fences.
3 times its done it and its won each of them.It must go well.
Back Bredon Hill Lad 8pts at 6.0 at Various bookies-UP(-8pts)After all that,it hasnt run its race.
Football
Crystal Palace v Everton-Back Everton 12pts at 7/5 at Various bookies
Chievo v Fiorentina-Back Fiorentina 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies
Back Liverpool-Roma-Arsenal-Chelsea-Atalanta in a 6pt Acca(Pays 3/1)
However,this is just 9 days later and even when it was running in point to points,all its best form was over 3 miles and ive got it a much worse horse over todays trip of two and a half miles,its also ran 2 poor races around this track before,so at 6/4,its worth taking on.
This is incredibly weak though,so opposition is thin on the ground but its difficult to see how Bredon Hill Lad cant be involved in the finish.
It wants bottomless ground(Soft/heavy 6w3p-20r) and is 4w-3p-14r when running again within 30 days like today but the stat that jumps out at me is its record when dropping into a class 5 over fences.
3 times its done it and its won each of them.It must go well.
Back Bredon Hill Lad 8pts at 6.0 at Various bookies-UP(-8pts)After all that,it hasnt run its race.
Football
Crystal Palace v Everton-Back Everton 12pts at 7/5 at Various bookies
Chievo v Fiorentina-Back Fiorentina 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies
Back Liverpool-Roma-Arsenal-Chelsea-Atalanta in a 6pt Acca(Pays 3/1)
19th January
The only one I really liked tomorrow was Buttercup(210 Wincanton) but that has been backed already and any little value there was,has gone now.
No Selections
No Selections
18th January
315 Market Rasen-With Attimo looking a much better horse going left handed,this looks a two horse race to me and as usual,it comes down to value when making a selection.
Unzing won well last time out,when well backed and should be fine over todays trip.
It should go close but is around the price I have it.
Highbury High has been consistent,with several good performances of late.
It probably doesnt want the ground to get bottomless but other than that,it surely holds a better chance than the current odds suggest.
A record of 3 from 4 going right handed including a win on its only start here plus the trainer has a 29% strike rate at this track,in recent seasons.
I also like the first time booking of good 7Ibs claimer James King.
Back Highbury High 10pts at 5.0 at Betfair Sportsbook/Paddys-Won(+45pts *BOG) Given a lovely ride to take it up at last.
Monthly Total+54.50pts
Running Total+8678.77pts
Unzing won well last time out,when well backed and should be fine over todays trip.
It should go close but is around the price I have it.
Highbury High has been consistent,with several good performances of late.
It probably doesnt want the ground to get bottomless but other than that,it surely holds a better chance than the current odds suggest.
A record of 3 from 4 going right handed including a win on its only start here plus the trainer has a 29% strike rate at this track,in recent seasons.
I also like the first time booking of good 7Ibs claimer James King.
Back Highbury High 10pts at 5.0 at Betfair Sportsbook/Paddys-Won(+45pts *BOG) Given a lovely ride to take it up at last.
Monthly Total+54.50pts
Running Total+8678.77pts
17th January
Tomily(340 Kempton) and Ray Diamond(240 Exeter)Both have decent chances but neither price entices me in.
No Selections
No Selections
16th January
430 Wolves-Hot Beat ran an encouraging race,on its first outing for over a year,last time out which was also its stable debut for the David Simcock yard.
The yard itself are in fine form wirh 7 winners from their last 20 runners and with Martin Harley booked for the ride(24% strike rate for the Trainer),it looks a big price.
Alisante ran a good race last time,on its first start over this trip.Its the main danger but is very short.
Back Hot Beat 6pts at 11.0 at Paddys/Betfair Sportsbook(Advised earlier)-Won(+60pts)Hammered into 7/2 and won cosily.
210 Ayr-If its recovered after its run 5 days ago then Bryden Boy is the most likely winner of this race but it had a very tough race that day and does tend to hit the frame rather than win.
It also ran below par on its previous visit here.
Lochnell looks a fair alternative to me.
Its got the champion jockey booked and a low racing weight to boot,its record over this trip is 2w-2p-5r and is 2w-1p-3r when returning to the track within 15 days like today.
Its rating from 3 starts back gives it a great chance and it should be much shorter in the betting.
Back Lochnell 9pts at 5.5 at Various bookies-3rd(-9pts)Typically Bryden Boy did run its race and won easily.
305 Plumpton-Henllan Harri looks a little short to me,as its not certain to enjoy the very soft ground plus its not like its clear on my figures although it did run one of its better races last time.
Royal Salute is another trading shorter than I have it,this one will like the ground but the final stages could see its stamina ebbing away,as so far,ive got it better at shorter.
This creates some value elsewhere.
Itoldyou is up in class but is now 18Ibs below its last winning mark,its ran well on its last two starts and gets a top jockey in Tom Cannon onboard.
It has a fine 2w-1p-8r record at this track and is 4w-2p-10r over trips of 3m1+.
Sweettoothtommy is very unexposed and made a good chase debut last time.
Any improvement on that would see it going very close.
Back Itoldyou 7pts at 7.0 & Sweettoothtommy 7pts at 7.0 both at various bookies-Lost(-14pts)(DT+37pts)
Monthly Total+9.5pts
Running Total+8633.77pts
The yard itself are in fine form wirh 7 winners from their last 20 runners and with Martin Harley booked for the ride(24% strike rate for the Trainer),it looks a big price.
Alisante ran a good race last time,on its first start over this trip.Its the main danger but is very short.
Back Hot Beat 6pts at 11.0 at Paddys/Betfair Sportsbook(Advised earlier)-Won(+60pts)Hammered into 7/2 and won cosily.
210 Ayr-If its recovered after its run 5 days ago then Bryden Boy is the most likely winner of this race but it had a very tough race that day and does tend to hit the frame rather than win.
It also ran below par on its previous visit here.
Lochnell looks a fair alternative to me.
Its got the champion jockey booked and a low racing weight to boot,its record over this trip is 2w-2p-5r and is 2w-1p-3r when returning to the track within 15 days like today.
Its rating from 3 starts back gives it a great chance and it should be much shorter in the betting.
Back Lochnell 9pts at 5.5 at Various bookies-3rd(-9pts)Typically Bryden Boy did run its race and won easily.
305 Plumpton-Henllan Harri looks a little short to me,as its not certain to enjoy the very soft ground plus its not like its clear on my figures although it did run one of its better races last time.
Royal Salute is another trading shorter than I have it,this one will like the ground but the final stages could see its stamina ebbing away,as so far,ive got it better at shorter.
This creates some value elsewhere.
Itoldyou is up in class but is now 18Ibs below its last winning mark,its ran well on its last two starts and gets a top jockey in Tom Cannon onboard.
It has a fine 2w-1p-8r record at this track and is 4w-2p-10r over trips of 3m1+.
Sweettoothtommy is very unexposed and made a good chase debut last time.
Any improvement on that would see it going very close.
Back Itoldyou 7pts at 7.0 & Sweettoothtommy 7pts at 7.0 both at various bookies-Lost(-14pts)(DT+37pts)
Monthly Total+9.5pts
Running Total+8633.77pts
15th January
No Horse racing selections,so just the football advised on Friday
Football
(Serie A Sunday)
Lazio v Atlanta-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 10pts at 3.0 at 32red-Lost 2-1
Football
(Serie A Sunday)
Lazio v Atlanta-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 10pts at 3.0 at 32red-Lost 2-1
14th January
645 Wolves-Miss Dusky Diva won last time out at Lingfield,on what was its first run over todays trip of 2 miles but that rating,gives it a fair bit to find to follow up here.
It may come on again but at the prices,its a poor favourite.
Take it on with Chestnut Storm ,who is also unexposed over the trip and posted a career best rating last time out at Southwell.
It has run well here before and the sire has a 21% strike rate with its runners here.
Yasir is consistent and runs well here,so is respected.
Back Chestnut Storm 8pts at 7.0 at Bet365/Betvictor-UP(-8pts)Very weak in the betting and despite being given every chance,was well beaten.
1255 Kempton-Return Flight has only had 2 starts over fences and should continue to improve but this is a rise in class and no horse that run in either of those 2 runs has come out and gone on to win.
I feel the prices between it and Ericht are the wrong way round.
The latter drops in grade and is 3 wins from 6 runs at this track.
Its 6w-1p-11r during January and February and everything looks in place for a big run.
Always on the Run is 2 from 2 here but isnt quite producing its best at the moment.
Back Erict 12pts at Various bookies-UP(-12pts)Ran a shocker
140 Wetherby-Unless one of the handicap debutantes is capable of showing much more than it has so far then this looks a decent opportunity for El Massivo.
It run a good race last time and is now back on its last winning mark.
Its ran several good races at this track and Danny Cook gets on well with it.
I doubt any of the exposed horses can beat the selection.
Skeltons Dragon De La Tour cannot win on what its done so far but may improve for the switch to handicaps and the same can be said for Middlebrow and Catching Shadows.
Back El Massivo 12pts at 4.5 at Betfred/Totesport-Won(+37pts*2 NRs)Given a great ride by Cook to battle home.(DT+17pts)
Football
(Serie A Sunday)
Lazio v Atlanta-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 10pts at 3.0 at 32red
It may come on again but at the prices,its a poor favourite.
Take it on with Chestnut Storm ,who is also unexposed over the trip and posted a career best rating last time out at Southwell.
It has run well here before and the sire has a 21% strike rate with its runners here.
Yasir is consistent and runs well here,so is respected.
Back Chestnut Storm 8pts at 7.0 at Bet365/Betvictor-UP(-8pts)Very weak in the betting and despite being given every chance,was well beaten.
1255 Kempton-Return Flight has only had 2 starts over fences and should continue to improve but this is a rise in class and no horse that run in either of those 2 runs has come out and gone on to win.
I feel the prices between it and Ericht are the wrong way round.
The latter drops in grade and is 3 wins from 6 runs at this track.
Its 6w-1p-11r during January and February and everything looks in place for a big run.
Always on the Run is 2 from 2 here but isnt quite producing its best at the moment.
Back Erict 12pts at Various bookies-UP(-12pts)Ran a shocker
140 Wetherby-Unless one of the handicap debutantes is capable of showing much more than it has so far then this looks a decent opportunity for El Massivo.
It run a good race last time and is now back on its last winning mark.
Its ran several good races at this track and Danny Cook gets on well with it.
I doubt any of the exposed horses can beat the selection.
Skeltons Dragon De La Tour cannot win on what its done so far but may improve for the switch to handicaps and the same can be said for Middlebrow and Catching Shadows.
Back El Massivo 12pts at 4.5 at Betfred/Totesport-Won(+37pts*2 NRs)Given a great ride by Cook to battle home.(DT+17pts)
Football
(Serie A Sunday)
Lazio v Atlanta-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 10pts at 3.0 at 32red
13th January
210 Sedgefield-Captain Mowbray has been knocking on the door and the drop in grade into a race where not many make much appeal,could be the answer.
Its latest effort puts it 5Ibs clear of its nearest rival and with several horses,with better ratings,having stamina question marks then I would certainly have it shorter than it is.
Dark And Dangerous bounced back to form last time over 2m1f but looks far better animal at that trip than todays while similar could be said about Captain Sharpe.
Back Captain Mowbray 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies
310 Sedgefield-Although there are some likely types on show here,im still shocked at the price of Hartside.
This horse appreciated the drop in class ,last time out and posted the best rating in this race plus backed it up with an excellent speed figure.
In the last 2 years,its record in this class and on good to soft ground reads 3-1-4-1-2.
I expect it to easily outrun its odds here.
Beeno has been well supported and from such a shrewd yard(35% strike rate here)that has to be respected but on the bare figures of its runs so far,its hard to understand why.
Snowed In came back to form last time at its favourite track(Catterick) and would hold chances on that but that was a desperate race and its no certainty to repeat that run.
Free Stone Hill makes its handicap debut from the Dan Skelton yard and is another that you have to respect but again,on the pure ratings its achieved so far,it has to improve a stone to win this.
Back Hartside 5pts at 13.0 at various bookies
Its latest effort puts it 5Ibs clear of its nearest rival and with several horses,with better ratings,having stamina question marks then I would certainly have it shorter than it is.
Dark And Dangerous bounced back to form last time over 2m1f but looks far better animal at that trip than todays while similar could be said about Captain Sharpe.
Back Captain Mowbray 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies
310 Sedgefield-Although there are some likely types on show here,im still shocked at the price of Hartside.
This horse appreciated the drop in class ,last time out and posted the best rating in this race plus backed it up with an excellent speed figure.
In the last 2 years,its record in this class and on good to soft ground reads 3-1-4-1-2.
I expect it to easily outrun its odds here.
Beeno has been well supported and from such a shrewd yard(35% strike rate here)that has to be respected but on the bare figures of its runs so far,its hard to understand why.
Snowed In came back to form last time at its favourite track(Catterick) and would hold chances on that but that was a desperate race and its no certainty to repeat that run.
Free Stone Hill makes its handicap debut from the Dan Skelton yard and is another that you have to respect but again,on the pure ratings its achieved so far,it has to improve a stone to win this.
Back Hartside 5pts at 13.0 at various bookies
9th January
Too many results are just not making sense, to the ratings im looking at.
We all have bad runs but i used to be at my best around this time and currently ,its a struggle.
Its time for a break,certainly from the horses.
Football will continue to be posted.
We all have bad runs but i used to be at my best around this time and currently ,its a struggle.
Its time for a break,certainly from the horses.
Football will continue to be posted.
8th January
310 Fontwell-I like the booking of James King on Highbury High here and the 7Ibs claimed off by the jockey could be valuable,as this is a tight race.
Its been a model of consistency and deserves to win another race and I would have it around the 7/2 mark,so the current odds are value.
Bishops Court just heads my ratings but is priced accordingly and I do have a slight niggle about its stamina in the latter stages.
Flaming Charmer came back to form last time but even that win/rating will need to be improved upon to take this off top weight.
Mr Muddle is 11Ibs above its last winning mark,so has it to do but interestingly,makes its debut for the Gary Moore yard but it will need a career best to win.
Back Highbury High 7pts at 8.0 at Betbright-Non Runner
330 Chepstow-After Hours has only had the 3 starts over fences but each has shown a nice progression in its figures.
Its latest run puts it clear of the rest of this field and it really should be winning this under ideal conditions.
Its likes a decent sized field(10runners+ 2w-0p-5r) and the jockey/trainer combo operate at a strike rate of 26%.
Ubaltique is the biggest danger as it drops in class and is 3w-1p-4r in January,however its been below par in its 2 previous visits here.
Back After Hours 20pts at 3.0 at Marathon bet(Currently 3.4 on Betfair Exchange)-UP(-20pts)A result that makes no sense at all and that is probably the biggest concern for me.
Football
Serie A
Chievo v Atlanta
Back Atlanta 10pts at 6/4 at various bookies-Won(+15pts)
Monthly Total-34.5pts
Running Total+8589.77pts
Its been a model of consistency and deserves to win another race and I would have it around the 7/2 mark,so the current odds are value.
Bishops Court just heads my ratings but is priced accordingly and I do have a slight niggle about its stamina in the latter stages.
Flaming Charmer came back to form last time but even that win/rating will need to be improved upon to take this off top weight.
Mr Muddle is 11Ibs above its last winning mark,so has it to do but interestingly,makes its debut for the Gary Moore yard but it will need a career best to win.
Back Highbury High 7pts at 8.0 at Betbright-Non Runner
330 Chepstow-After Hours has only had the 3 starts over fences but each has shown a nice progression in its figures.
Its latest run puts it clear of the rest of this field and it really should be winning this under ideal conditions.
Its likes a decent sized field(10runners+ 2w-0p-5r) and the jockey/trainer combo operate at a strike rate of 26%.
Ubaltique is the biggest danger as it drops in class and is 3w-1p-4r in January,however its been below par in its 2 previous visits here.
Back After Hours 20pts at 3.0 at Marathon bet(Currently 3.4 on Betfair Exchange)-UP(-20pts)A result that makes no sense at all and that is probably the biggest concern for me.
Football
Serie A
Chievo v Atlanta
Back Atlanta 10pts at 6/4 at various bookies-Won(+15pts)
Monthly Total-34.5pts
Running Total+8589.77pts
7th January
145 Lingfield-This is a quite tight race but easily the best value here is Ready.
10 furlongs is clearly its best trip and its drops in grade also.
It ran well over shorter at Wolverhampton last time but its best recent run was over course and distance in November.It should be at least half its current price.
Van Huysen has a lot in its favour here but its a very short price based on my ratings.
Mica Mika wont be far away while Coalite Cailin & Fort Bastion have chances if they prove themselves on the surface and trip respectively.
Back Ready 4pts at 17.0 at Betvictor/Hills-UP(-4pts)
220 Lingfield-For me,this is a 2 horse race as,although a horse very much proven under these conditions,Alfred Hutchinson just cant win this on my figures.
Realise is rock solid and 4 from 8 around here but ive got You`re Fired as the favourite here.
Although yet to race here,its proved well suited to polytrack at Kempton and is 3w-3p-6r in small fields like this.
This also a drop in grade for it.
Back You`re Fired 18pts at 3.0 at Skybet/Bet365/Betvictor-UP(-18pts)Got everything wrong here.
330 Lingfield-Another tight affair but there are doubts about several at the front of the market.
Footlight has to prove its stamina(Sire just 4% at the trip with its progeny)
Mercy Me has so far on my figures,proved a bit better at Chelmsford than here.
Owners Day has been running well over hurdles but has a few pounds to find under these conditions.
Heads You Win ran well last time over slightly shorter at Wolves but its performances here have so far been 10Ibs inferior..
So that leaves me with Celtic Ava,whos posted 2 solid efforts back to back and does like it here.
Its no good thing but should be around 3/1 mark in my view.
Back Celtic Ava 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies-4th(-7pts)Money for it but not good enough.
150 Sandown-Bright New Dawn makes its stable debut for Venitia Williams here and if she can get it to produce something close to last seasons best then it would have a far better chance than the current odds suggest.
It has a nice record after a decent break of 121 days or more like today(2w-1p-5r) and the trainer has won with 4 of her last 14 runners.
Hollywoodien is consistent and must go well while Garde La Victoire is very much respected although slightly shorter than I would have it.
Back Bright New Dawn 6pts at 11.0 at Various bookies-4th(-6pts)Looked the winner for 80% of this race.The jockey seemed happy to let others go past without making any effort.One paced in the straight.(DT-35pts)Fairly Tragic day!
10 furlongs is clearly its best trip and its drops in grade also.
It ran well over shorter at Wolverhampton last time but its best recent run was over course and distance in November.It should be at least half its current price.
Van Huysen has a lot in its favour here but its a very short price based on my ratings.
Mica Mika wont be far away while Coalite Cailin & Fort Bastion have chances if they prove themselves on the surface and trip respectively.
Back Ready 4pts at 17.0 at Betvictor/Hills-UP(-4pts)
220 Lingfield-For me,this is a 2 horse race as,although a horse very much proven under these conditions,Alfred Hutchinson just cant win this on my figures.
Realise is rock solid and 4 from 8 around here but ive got You`re Fired as the favourite here.
Although yet to race here,its proved well suited to polytrack at Kempton and is 3w-3p-6r in small fields like this.
This also a drop in grade for it.
Back You`re Fired 18pts at 3.0 at Skybet/Bet365/Betvictor-UP(-18pts)Got everything wrong here.
330 Lingfield-Another tight affair but there are doubts about several at the front of the market.
Footlight has to prove its stamina(Sire just 4% at the trip with its progeny)
Mercy Me has so far on my figures,proved a bit better at Chelmsford than here.
Owners Day has been running well over hurdles but has a few pounds to find under these conditions.
Heads You Win ran well last time over slightly shorter at Wolves but its performances here have so far been 10Ibs inferior..
So that leaves me with Celtic Ava,whos posted 2 solid efforts back to back and does like it here.
Its no good thing but should be around 3/1 mark in my view.
Back Celtic Ava 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies-4th(-7pts)Money for it but not good enough.
150 Sandown-Bright New Dawn makes its stable debut for Venitia Williams here and if she can get it to produce something close to last seasons best then it would have a far better chance than the current odds suggest.
It has a nice record after a decent break of 121 days or more like today(2w-1p-5r) and the trainer has won with 4 of her last 14 runners.
Hollywoodien is consistent and must go well while Garde La Victoire is very much respected although slightly shorter than I would have it.
Back Bright New Dawn 6pts at 11.0 at Various bookies-4th(-6pts)Looked the winner for 80% of this race.The jockey seemed happy to let others go past without making any effort.One paced in the straight.(DT-35pts)Fairly Tragic day!
6th January
220 Ludlow-On my figures,You Too Pet should be clear favourite here.
It ran a good race last time out,on its seasonal debut when backed into favouritism and that rating gives it sound claims here but if it got anywhere near its best run from last season then it would take a lot of beating.
Midnight Jade is consistent and has conditions to suit but it is 0w-0p-3r at this track and that has to be a concern.
Lord Landen drops in class but Ive got it better at shorter and it could be vulnerable late on.
Midnight Folie is a threat if it gets round but possibly wants the ground a little quicker.
Theres been a little early move for Gardiners Hill but the trainer hasnt had a winner for over 180 days.
Back You Too Pet 12pts at 4.3 at Bet365/Betvictor
I liked Absolute Blast(745 Wolves) but ive missed the boat and the early 7/2 is long gone.
It ran a good race last time out,on its seasonal debut when backed into favouritism and that rating gives it sound claims here but if it got anywhere near its best run from last season then it would take a lot of beating.
Midnight Jade is consistent and has conditions to suit but it is 0w-0p-3r at this track and that has to be a concern.
Lord Landen drops in class but Ive got it better at shorter and it could be vulnerable late on.
Midnight Folie is a threat if it gets round but possibly wants the ground a little quicker.
Theres been a little early move for Gardiners Hill but the trainer hasnt had a winner for over 180 days.
Back You Too Pet 12pts at 4.3 at Bet365/Betvictor
I liked Absolute Blast(745 Wolves) but ive missed the boat and the early 7/2 is long gone.
5th January
320 Lingfield-I really like Midnight Silver here.
Its clearly a horse that likes a little break between its races(31 days+ 4w-1p-7r) and gets that here while its still fairly unexposed over long trips,it looks like a strong stayer to me.
The ground is ideal(Soft/heavy 4w-2p-9r),its 4w-2p-9r going left handed and an eye catching 4w-0p-6r in fields of 7 or less(8 runners+0w-1p-5r) and the jockey is 2 from 3 on it.
Its top of my ratings and should be at least 6/4.
Shoofy Milly has a rating from last season which puts it close but its 0w-1p-11r in this grade,
Deckers Delight won on its handicap debut last time out(at odds of 33/1),it may have more improvement to come but it will need to find it ,if the selection runs its race.
Poisoned Berry jumps up markedly in trip and hails from a big yard.The market will tell its tale.
Back Midnight Silver 14pts at 3.5 at Various bookies-Meeting Abandoned
Its clearly a horse that likes a little break between its races(31 days+ 4w-1p-7r) and gets that here while its still fairly unexposed over long trips,it looks like a strong stayer to me.
The ground is ideal(Soft/heavy 4w-2p-9r),its 4w-2p-9r going left handed and an eye catching 4w-0p-6r in fields of 7 or less(8 runners+0w-1p-5r) and the jockey is 2 from 3 on it.
Its top of my ratings and should be at least 6/4.
Shoofy Milly has a rating from last season which puts it close but its 0w-1p-11r in this grade,
Deckers Delight won on its handicap debut last time out(at odds of 33/1),it may have more improvement to come but it will need to find it ,if the selection runs its race.
Poisoned Berry jumps up markedly in trip and hails from a big yard.The market will tell its tale.
Back Midnight Silver 14pts at 3.5 at Various bookies-Meeting Abandoned
4th January
715 Wolverhampton-Menelik ran well last time and is respected with Kirby onboard,however that was a class 7 and it hasnt won since August 2014.
Take it on with Our Jock.
This horse comes over from Ireland and the trainer doesnt make the journey that often these days but does alright when he does(2w-1p-5r last 2 years)
Its best runs recently have been over this trip and this is a drop in class for it.
Its got a nice draw and it wouldnt surprise me if ended up favourite.
Back Our Jock 12pts at 4.5 at Betfred/Totesport/Betway-Won(+40.5pts)
Monthly Total+5.5pts
Running Total+8629.77pts
Take it on with Our Jock.
This horse comes over from Ireland and the trainer doesnt make the journey that often these days but does alright when he does(2w-1p-5r last 2 years)
Its best runs recently have been over this trip and this is a drop in class for it.
Its got a nice draw and it wouldnt surprise me if ended up favourite.
Back Our Jock 12pts at 4.5 at Betfred/Totesport/Betway-Won(+40.5pts)
Monthly Total+5.5pts
Running Total+8629.77pts
2nd January
The only horse I liked was Ray Diamond (320 Plumpton) but id need 3/1 before getting involved.
I have been on a very poor run and clearly the analysis plus decision making hasnt been good enough.
If January brings more poor tips then it will probably be time to accept that its all over...we shall see!
Having drifted ,Ray Diamond is worth a bet now.
Back Ray Diamond 12pts at 4.3 at Various bookies-3rd(-12pts)
I have been on a very poor run and clearly the analysis plus decision making hasnt been good enough.
If January brings more poor tips then it will probably be time to accept that its all over...we shall see!
Having drifted ,Ray Diamond is worth a bet now.
Back Ray Diamond 12pts at 4.3 at Various bookies-3rd(-12pts)
1st January
100 Catterick-There are a couple in here making their handicap debuts(Chorus Of Lies and Heaven Scent) but Helium sets a fair standard for them to aim at.
This horse has been a regular winner down the years and with conditions ideal,it should go close for a yard that dont come here often but are 2 from 3 when they do.
Leading Score will appreciate the drop in trip but looks too short in the market to me while Cloud Monkey is another trading far too short.
The very inconsistent Snowed In is well handicapped now and likes it here.
Back Helium 14pts at 3.75 at Various bookies-3rd(-14pts)Money for Snowed In told its tale
110 Southwell-Luv U Whatever drops from a class 2 handicap to a class 6 claimer here and also arrives back at its favourite track(Record over CD reads 1-1-1-2-2-6-1-1)
Its 2 latest below par runs dont bother me as its never ever ran any good at Lingfield or Kempton and if it can get anywhere near its best under its optimum conditions then it really should be winning this.
Tatting is the obvious danger.
Back Luv U Whatever 9pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Ladbrokes-3rd(-9pts)Not the horse it was.(DT-23pts)
Running Total+8601.27pts
This horse has been a regular winner down the years and with conditions ideal,it should go close for a yard that dont come here often but are 2 from 3 when they do.
Leading Score will appreciate the drop in trip but looks too short in the market to me while Cloud Monkey is another trading far too short.
The very inconsistent Snowed In is well handicapped now and likes it here.
Back Helium 14pts at 3.75 at Various bookies-3rd(-14pts)Money for Snowed In told its tale
110 Southwell-Luv U Whatever drops from a class 2 handicap to a class 6 claimer here and also arrives back at its favourite track(Record over CD reads 1-1-1-2-2-6-1-1)
Its 2 latest below par runs dont bother me as its never ever ran any good at Lingfield or Kempton and if it can get anywhere near its best under its optimum conditions then it really should be winning this.
Tatting is the obvious danger.
Back Luv U Whatever 9pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Ladbrokes-3rd(-9pts)Not the horse it was.(DT-23pts)
Running Total+8601.27pts
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