300 Newbury-Geordie Des Champs makes its handicap debut here and although this is a tough race,it looks to have been given a decent opening mark.
Each rating posted so far has shown an upwards progression and any continuation of that would make it a tough opponent here.
Kings Bandit is another with potential but has failed to get round in 2 of its last 4 starts.
On its best ratings from last year,Lac Fontana would hold chances while Boite is improving but needs to find more progression to trouble the best of these.
Back Geordie Des Champs 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies-2nd(-12pts)Hammered into 5/4 but once more couldnt get it done.
250 Uttoxeter-Mumgo`s Debut has been pretty consistent since returning after a wind operation but its last 3 ratings have shown some deteoration and it remains to be seen how it copes with the drop back to 2 miles.
Rock On Rocky has only had 3 starts over fences and will like the conditions,its the right price however.
At a price,the one I like is Emperor Commodos,who ran really well on its chasing debut last time,posting a good rating and solid speed figure.
I have got it a much shorter price than what is available and it has to be backed.
Back Emperor Commodos 7pts at 9.0 at Various bookies-UP(-7pts)A poor run to finish the year(DT-19pts)
Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
30th December
If it survives the morning inspection then Haydock offers the closest I came to a selection with Spanish Fleet offering reasonable value but it has so far proved better on a right handed track and this is also a rise in class.On pure ratings it has a good chance albeit against a few unexposed sorts over fences.All in all the price isnt quite big enough to tempt me in.
Anything above 7/1 would be good value.
FOOTBALL
(English Premiership)
(Friday) Hull v Everton
Back Everton 15pts at evens with Betfred/Paddys/Stan James/Betway/Betfair
(Saturday) Liverpool v Man City
Back Liverpool 11pts at 11/8 at Various bookies
Anything above 7/1 would be good value.
FOOTBALL
(English Premiership)
(Friday) Hull v Everton
Back Everton 15pts at evens with Betfred/Paddys/Stan James/Betway/Betfair
(Saturday) Liverpool v Man City
Back Liverpool 11pts at 11/8 at Various bookies
29th December
240 Doncaster-This is a drop in class for Ami Desbois and this horse looks to be improving since the tongue tie went on.
Ideally,it would prefer a drop of rain but other than that,it appears slightly overpriced to me.
Ten Sixty won well on its seasonal debut and could prove better over this trip but its a tight enough price considering it needs to improve for it.
Parish Business represents a yard that do well here(27% strike rate) and it would hold chances on its run 2 starts back but it disappointed last time.
Back Ami Desbois 9pts at 5.5 at Hills/Betvictor-Non Runner
I thought Gold Opera(140 Kelso) and Tred Softly(1245 Southwell) would go close but the prices arent big enough to tempt me in
Ideally,it would prefer a drop of rain but other than that,it appears slightly overpriced to me.
Ten Sixty won well on its seasonal debut and could prove better over this trip but its a tight enough price considering it needs to improve for it.
Parish Business represents a yard that do well here(27% strike rate) and it would hold chances on its run 2 starts back but it disappointed last time.
Back Ami Desbois 9pts at 5.5 at Hills/Betvictor-Non Runner
I thought Gold Opera(140 Kelso) and Tred Softly(1245 Southwell) would go close but the prices arent big enough to tempt me in
27th December
315 Chepstow-Aso is the right favourite and the most likely winner,as it drops in class for a stable that have won 3 of the last 4 runnings but as ever with me,theres has to be value in the price and there isnt with that particular horse.
Grey Gold has won first time out the last 2 seasons ,so could go well on its seasonal debut but ive got it a better horse at shorter than this.
Ultragold looks to have it do here at a trip further than it prefers while Tornado in Milan is in fine fettle at present but needs to find a jolt of improvement from somewhere.
Drumlee Sunset is lightly raced over fences and improving but it has nearly a stone to find with Aso on what its done so far,on my figures,so will clearly need to come on again.
The value lies with On Tour,who ran poorly last time over possibly a trip too far but significantly in a big field.Its much better in small field like this(7 runners or less 3w-1p-4r) ,is 5w-2p-10r when returning to the track within 60 days and a repeat of its run 2 starts back would see it going very close here.
Back On Tour 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Halved in price but although given too much to do,it wasnt good enough.
330 Kempton-On just its second start for Colin Tizzard,Bally Longford produced a career best ratiing,in a much better race at Cheltenham than this,last time out,only getting worn down late on over slightly further.
The drop back in trip will surely suit but also going right handed will surely bring about more improvement(R/H 5w-5p-15r compared to 0/9 L/H).I expect it to go close.
Go Conquer fell last time but was improving before that,it rates the biggest danger although More Bucks is progressing and is a slightly bigger price than ive got it.
Back Bally Longford 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies-UP(-12pts)This has ran way below form in keeping with this months tips in general.Pretty poor stuff(DT-18pts)
Grey Gold has won first time out the last 2 seasons ,so could go well on its seasonal debut but ive got it a better horse at shorter than this.
Ultragold looks to have it do here at a trip further than it prefers while Tornado in Milan is in fine fettle at present but needs to find a jolt of improvement from somewhere.
Drumlee Sunset is lightly raced over fences and improving but it has nearly a stone to find with Aso on what its done so far,on my figures,so will clearly need to come on again.
The value lies with On Tour,who ran poorly last time over possibly a trip too far but significantly in a big field.Its much better in small field like this(7 runners or less 3w-1p-4r) ,is 5w-2p-10r when returning to the track within 60 days and a repeat of its run 2 starts back would see it going very close here.
Back On Tour 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Halved in price but although given too much to do,it wasnt good enough.
330 Kempton-On just its second start for Colin Tizzard,Bally Longford produced a career best ratiing,in a much better race at Cheltenham than this,last time out,only getting worn down late on over slightly further.
The drop back in trip will surely suit but also going right handed will surely bring about more improvement(R/H 5w-5p-15r compared to 0/9 L/H).I expect it to go close.
Go Conquer fell last time but was improving before that,it rates the biggest danger although More Bucks is progressing and is a slightly bigger price than ive got it.
Back Bally Longford 12pts at 4.5 at Various bookies-UP(-12pts)This has ran way below form in keeping with this months tips in general.Pretty poor stuff(DT-18pts)
26th December
140 Sedgefield-This looks pretty weak and Kilronan Castle is a fair enough favourite,after showing improvement on its second chase start,if you finish in front of it then you are probably winning this.
Im hoping that will be Attimo,whos ran better than its form figures suggest,of late.
Its now dropped to a mark 2Ibs below its last winning mark and is back over a course and distance that its posted its best ratings before(Finished 1st and 2nd in 2 races).
Its record over other trips is 0w-0p-13r,so this is clearly its distance and its at its best returned to the track quickly(15 day or less 2w-0-4r compared to 0w-2p-12r 16days+)
Its twice the price ive got it,so it has to be the value with the added cheekpieces another angle.
Uno Valoroso has got the ratings to get involved but is returning after a absence,however its main problem is surely this trip of 2m4f (Record over 2m3f + 0w-1p-11r)
Sergeant Pink arrives here after nearly 500 days since we last saw it,its record after any sort of absence means you can put a line through it(31 days+ 0w-1p-18r)
Back Attimo 9pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Sky/Paddys-Won(+40.5pts)Well backed and won nicely under a well judged ride.
415 Wolves-From a ratings perspective,Mythmaker has to be the call here.
It posted a career best last time and this is a drop in grade,anything close to that run would win this.
It does obviously have to prove itself as good on this Tapeta surface as the polytrack but with a 3w-1p-5r record in fields of 7 or less,im happy to find out here at the prices.
Ive actually got Lightcameraaction as the outsider of this field and although it has drifted slightly since xmas eve,its still far too short for a horse that has never won beyond 6 furlongs.
Dougan is probably the main danger as its fairly rock solid and goes very well here.
Back Mythmaker 10pts at 5.0 at Corals-2nd(-10pts)Money talked as Spring Loaded was punted from 7/1 into 5/4.
240 Kempton-Apparently this isnt The New One`s track? Yet its form figures here read 1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st.
Its top rated on its latest run and could easily get a solo from the front as all the others appear to want to be held up.Ive got it around the even money mark,so although it has shortened a little,its still the wrong price.
Yanworth is very consistent but drops in trip,it needs to find a few pounds on my figures to beat the selection and this is its toughest task to date.
My Tent or Yours probably has its ideal conditions and will no doubt loom up 2 out but it looks more and more a bridle horse and it will need to be tough to get past The New One.
Back The New One 20pts at 15/8 at various bookies-2nd(-20pts)Team tactics by the connections of Yanworth got this beat.Harried throughout by their other horse.
110 Market Rasen-Groomed looks a dodgy favourite to me here and it makes the market.
Its become fairly inconsistent and probably wont back up its latest run but that rating still leaves it 7Ibs to find on the best of these.
No Ceiling is very consistent and is 3w-2p-7r since being fitted with a hood but it has no form of any note going this way round,so it remains to be seen how it handles it.
I like Un Anjou,whos top of my figures on its latest run behind a progressive horse that followed up just a few days ago.
Its 2w-0p-4r during December and represents a yard that have a 31% strike rate here in recent times.
Back Un Anjou 7pts at 6.5 at Corals-3rd(-7pts)Ran a good race but not good enough.Nice lay on Groomed though.
120 Huntingdon-There are a couple of lightly raced animals on show here with Elkstone and Viking Mistress both unexposed over fences but neither achieved what Knights Reward did on its chase debut and hopefully with improvement likely,it should go close.
It was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler according to its trainer and will like the small field(7 runners or less 2w-0p-4r compared to 8 runners+ 0w-0p-9r).
Caprice D`Anglais is well in under a penalty but it only ran 7 days ago,so this is a fairly quick turnaround.
Back Knights Reward 14pts at 4.0 at Betway-Pulled UP(-14pts)Very weak in the betting and ran a lifeless race.(DT-10.5pts)
Monthly Total-53pts
Running Total+8676.27pts
Im hoping that will be Attimo,whos ran better than its form figures suggest,of late.
Its now dropped to a mark 2Ibs below its last winning mark and is back over a course and distance that its posted its best ratings before(Finished 1st and 2nd in 2 races).
Its record over other trips is 0w-0p-13r,so this is clearly its distance and its at its best returned to the track quickly(15 day or less 2w-0-4r compared to 0w-2p-12r 16days+)
Its twice the price ive got it,so it has to be the value with the added cheekpieces another angle.
Uno Valoroso has got the ratings to get involved but is returning after a absence,however its main problem is surely this trip of 2m4f (Record over 2m3f + 0w-1p-11r)
Sergeant Pink arrives here after nearly 500 days since we last saw it,its record after any sort of absence means you can put a line through it(31 days+ 0w-1p-18r)
Back Attimo 9pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Sky/Paddys-Won(+40.5pts)Well backed and won nicely under a well judged ride.
415 Wolves-From a ratings perspective,Mythmaker has to be the call here.
It posted a career best last time and this is a drop in grade,anything close to that run would win this.
It does obviously have to prove itself as good on this Tapeta surface as the polytrack but with a 3w-1p-5r record in fields of 7 or less,im happy to find out here at the prices.
Ive actually got Lightcameraaction as the outsider of this field and although it has drifted slightly since xmas eve,its still far too short for a horse that has never won beyond 6 furlongs.
Dougan is probably the main danger as its fairly rock solid and goes very well here.
Back Mythmaker 10pts at 5.0 at Corals-2nd(-10pts)Money talked as Spring Loaded was punted from 7/1 into 5/4.
240 Kempton-Apparently this isnt The New One`s track? Yet its form figures here read 1st-2nd-1st-2nd-1st.
Its top rated on its latest run and could easily get a solo from the front as all the others appear to want to be held up.Ive got it around the even money mark,so although it has shortened a little,its still the wrong price.
Yanworth is very consistent but drops in trip,it needs to find a few pounds on my figures to beat the selection and this is its toughest task to date.
My Tent or Yours probably has its ideal conditions and will no doubt loom up 2 out but it looks more and more a bridle horse and it will need to be tough to get past The New One.
Back The New One 20pts at 15/8 at various bookies-2nd(-20pts)Team tactics by the connections of Yanworth got this beat.Harried throughout by their other horse.
110 Market Rasen-Groomed looks a dodgy favourite to me here and it makes the market.
Its become fairly inconsistent and probably wont back up its latest run but that rating still leaves it 7Ibs to find on the best of these.
No Ceiling is very consistent and is 3w-2p-7r since being fitted with a hood but it has no form of any note going this way round,so it remains to be seen how it handles it.
I like Un Anjou,whos top of my figures on its latest run behind a progressive horse that followed up just a few days ago.
Its 2w-0p-4r during December and represents a yard that have a 31% strike rate here in recent times.
Back Un Anjou 7pts at 6.5 at Corals-3rd(-7pts)Ran a good race but not good enough.Nice lay on Groomed though.
120 Huntingdon-There are a couple of lightly raced animals on show here with Elkstone and Viking Mistress both unexposed over fences but neither achieved what Knights Reward did on its chase debut and hopefully with improvement likely,it should go close.
It was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler according to its trainer and will like the small field(7 runners or less 2w-0p-4r compared to 8 runners+ 0w-0p-9r).
Caprice D`Anglais is well in under a penalty but it only ran 7 days ago,so this is a fairly quick turnaround.
Back Knights Reward 14pts at 4.0 at Betway-Pulled UP(-14pts)Very weak in the betting and ran a lifeless race.(DT-10.5pts)
Monthly Total-53pts
Running Total+8676.27pts
22nd December
400 Wolverhampton-My figures suggest(despite being beaten last time) that General Hazard is improving fast and this drop in trip,after being worn down over further last time,should be ideal.
Its already proven around here and has a decent draw.
It should be favourite.
Cadeaux Magnifique is finding it hard to get its head in front and this extra yardage needs to bring about some improvement.
The Third Man has been posting solid ratings but will need the selection to underperform to win this.
New Agenda is progressive but has a few pounds to find on my ratings.
Back General Hazard 8pts at 6.0 at bet365-4th(-8pts)Bundles of money for it but received a really poor ride and you could see it happening 4 furlongs out.Defintely one that got away.
I will be back on Christmas Day evening for all Boxing Days selections.
Its already proven around here and has a decent draw.
It should be favourite.
Cadeaux Magnifique is finding it hard to get its head in front and this extra yardage needs to bring about some improvement.
The Third Man has been posting solid ratings but will need the selection to underperform to win this.
New Agenda is progressive but has a few pounds to find on my ratings.
Back General Hazard 8pts at 6.0 at bet365-4th(-8pts)Bundles of money for it but received a really poor ride and you could see it happening 4 furlongs out.Defintely one that got away.
I will be back on Christmas Day evening for all Boxing Days selections.
21st December
135 Ludlow-This is a good race and several have chances.
Venitia Williams has trained the winner of this race 5 times in the last 10 years,so her Gardefort has to be respected but its failed to complete in its last 2 chase starts.
Baltimore Rock has come in for early support and could possibly hold a class edge if it can match its best hurdling ratings,over fences but theres little juice left in its price.
Going Concern has a very patchy record but was running well until coming down late on last time,however it is 0w-0p-3r at this track and is passed over on that score.
The value lies with Colins Brother,who only won a 4 runner race last time but was very well supported and won with tons in hand.
The rating and speed figure suggest it has more to come after only 4 chase starts and I would have it at least half its current price.
Back Colins Brother 7pts at 6.5 at betbright-Won(+37.5pts)Looked a big price 4 out and did get a bit of luck with a faller but came home very strong and won nicely in the end.
Monthly Total-34.5pts
Running Total+8694.77pts
Venitia Williams has trained the winner of this race 5 times in the last 10 years,so her Gardefort has to be respected but its failed to complete in its last 2 chase starts.
Baltimore Rock has come in for early support and could possibly hold a class edge if it can match its best hurdling ratings,over fences but theres little juice left in its price.
Going Concern has a very patchy record but was running well until coming down late on last time,however it is 0w-0p-3r at this track and is passed over on that score.
The value lies with Colins Brother,who only won a 4 runner race last time but was very well supported and won with tons in hand.
The rating and speed figure suggest it has more to come after only 4 chase starts and I would have it at least half its current price.
Back Colins Brother 7pts at 6.5 at betbright-Won(+37.5pts)Looked a big price 4 out and did get a bit of luck with a faller but came home very strong and won nicely in the end.
Monthly Total-34.5pts
Running Total+8694.77pts
20th December
1230 Southwell-It doesnt come much weaker than this race.
Recent form is pretty thin on the ground and there are doubts about most.
The current favourite is Jessica Jo,who was progressing fairly well until a poor run last time but this horse hasnt ever raced here and with the sire just 4% with its progeny at this track then I cant see it winning.
Luv U Lucky is 0w-1p-8r at his track and returns after an absence so despite having some fairly awful recent form figures to its name,I can see this going to Master Of Song.
This horse cannot string a decent run to its name on any of the other AW tracks(0w-0p-11r) but when it races here,it comes alive(Southwell 5w-7p-21r),therefore I think we can disregard its last 3 starts at Newcastle and Chelmsford)
It races off a mark 4Ibs lower than it last won off(Its last start at this track in Jan 2016).
It will be favourite by the off,im fairly certain.
Back Master Of Song 7pts at 7.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-5th(-7pts)
Recent form is pretty thin on the ground and there are doubts about most.
The current favourite is Jessica Jo,who was progressing fairly well until a poor run last time but this horse hasnt ever raced here and with the sire just 4% with its progeny at this track then I cant see it winning.
Luv U Lucky is 0w-1p-8r at his track and returns after an absence so despite having some fairly awful recent form figures to its name,I can see this going to Master Of Song.
This horse cannot string a decent run to its name on any of the other AW tracks(0w-0p-11r) but when it races here,it comes alive(Southwell 5w-7p-21r),therefore I think we can disregard its last 3 starts at Newcastle and Chelmsford)
It races off a mark 4Ibs lower than it last won off(Its last start at this track in Jan 2016).
It will be favourite by the off,im fairly certain.
Back Master Of Song 7pts at 7.0 at Skybet/Betvictor-5th(-7pts)
18th December
145 Fakenham-I can see Drumlee Lads chance but not at 7/4(7/2 in my tissue prices) and that makes for some value elsewhere.
Cody Wyoming represents a yard that have done well here in recent times and it just tops my ratings but although slightly bigger than my price,theres not enough value to get involved.
Shanroe Santos is unexposed and this yard are always to be feared around here but at the prices,Miami Present is just too big.
Its very lightly raced over fences and has ideal conditions here but its best 2 ratings were posted around this track over hurdles and if it takes to the chase track in the same way then it could easily outrun its odds.
Back Miami Present 4pts at 17.0 at various bookies-UP(-4pts)
FOOTBALL
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)-Lost(-15pts)Genoa were 3-1 up with 20 mins to play to bring up the final leg but lost 4-3,just about sums the month up.
Monthly Total-65pts
Running Total+8764.27pts
Cody Wyoming represents a yard that have done well here in recent times and it just tops my ratings but although slightly bigger than my price,theres not enough value to get involved.
Shanroe Santos is unexposed and this yard are always to be feared around here but at the prices,Miami Present is just too big.
Its very lightly raced over fences and has ideal conditions here but its best 2 ratings were posted around this track over hurdles and if it takes to the chase track in the same way then it could easily outrun its odds.
Back Miami Present 4pts at 17.0 at various bookies-UP(-4pts)
FOOTBALL
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)-Lost(-15pts)Genoa were 3-1 up with 20 mins to play to bring up the final leg but lost 4-3,just about sums the month up.
Monthly Total-65pts
Running Total+8764.27pts
17th December
125 Lingfield-Despite posting a career best last time out over 10 furlongs,Somethingthrilling is actually 2 from 3 over a mile and looks a force back against its own sex.
Bargain Buy is 2w-1p-3r at this track and is the clear danger,if the selection finishes in front of it then it really should win.
Back Somethingthrilling 13pts at 4.0 at Hills/Paddys-Won(+39pts)Easy victory.
235 Lingfield-Im surprised at the price of Threediamondrings here,its ran 2 good races the last twice,is 1w-1p-3r over this trip and 1w-1p-3r in this grade.
If it can get a fairly easy lead then it will run a big race.
Reckless wave is progressive and should appreciate the extra distance but its price is about right while Major Ben is still lightly raced but has to prove itself on polytrack and looks too short to me.
Back Threediamondrings 7pts at 8.5 at various bookies-2nd(-7pts)Ran really well with only the well supported fav proving too good.
255 Newcastle-This race revolves around Bun Doran who has only had the one run over fences and will surely improve,however despite that,I cant have it at the prices.
Boric is 2w-1p-5r at this track and isnt out of it while Final Assault would be a threat if finding last seasons best but the value has to be last years winner Bernardelli.
This horse has its ideal conditions and ran a fine race on its seasonal debut over 3 miles.
Despite having some decent form over that trip when its raced over todays trip of 2m4f and on its favoured soft/heavy ground then its form figures read 1st-1st-1st-1st.
Its also won here and is 2w-1p-4r during December.
It must run well.
Back Bernardelli 7pts at 7.5 at Paddys-UP(-7pts)It didnt run well!(-7pts)(DT+25pts)
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor-0-0(=pts)
Bargain Buy is 2w-1p-3r at this track and is the clear danger,if the selection finishes in front of it then it really should win.
Back Somethingthrilling 13pts at 4.0 at Hills/Paddys-Won(+39pts)Easy victory.
235 Lingfield-Im surprised at the price of Threediamondrings here,its ran 2 good races the last twice,is 1w-1p-3r over this trip and 1w-1p-3r in this grade.
If it can get a fairly easy lead then it will run a big race.
Reckless wave is progressive and should appreciate the extra distance but its price is about right while Major Ben is still lightly raced but has to prove itself on polytrack and looks too short to me.
Back Threediamondrings 7pts at 8.5 at various bookies-2nd(-7pts)Ran really well with only the well supported fav proving too good.
255 Newcastle-This race revolves around Bun Doran who has only had the one run over fences and will surely improve,however despite that,I cant have it at the prices.
Boric is 2w-1p-5r at this track and isnt out of it while Final Assault would be a threat if finding last seasons best but the value has to be last years winner Bernardelli.
This horse has its ideal conditions and ran a fine race on its seasonal debut over 3 miles.
Despite having some decent form over that trip when its raced over todays trip of 2m4f and on its favoured soft/heavy ground then its form figures read 1st-1st-1st-1st.
Its also won here and is 2w-1p-4r during December.
It must run well.
Back Bernardelli 7pts at 7.5 at Paddys-UP(-7pts)It didnt run well!(-7pts)(DT+25pts)
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor-0-0(=pts)
16th December
No Horses catch my eye but some football again...
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)
AC Milan v Atlanta(Serie A)-Back Atlanta(Draw No bet) 8pts at 3.25 at Marathon Bet/Betvictor
Genoa v Palermo(Serie A)
Salzburg v AC Wolfsberger(Austrian Superliga)
Spurs v Burnley(Premiership)
Back Genoa-Salzburg-Spurs 15pts Treble(Pays 11/8)
15th December
Yanmare should win the 140 at Towcester but I have missed the prices and wont be tipping it at 13/8.
and after watching the disgrace of a ride on Theo today,I wont be bothering with anything tomorrow.
and after watching the disgrace of a ride on Theo today,I wont be bothering with anything tomorrow.
14th December
640 Kempton-Tegara was progressing well until a bit below par last time but that possibly could be put down to the Tapeta surface at Newcastle.
Its clear top rated on its performance 2 starts back over this course and distance and with its sire boasting an impressive 50% strike rate here on the polytrack surface then I expect it to continue its upward curve.
The trainer has a 38% strike rate with his runners that go off favourite here.
Encore Moi and Palenville are the dangers but both lack the upside of the selection.
Back Tegara 14pts at 3.5 at Hills/Ladbrokes-Non Runner
250 Musselburgh-I always like the Irish to Uk angle with handicappers over the jumps and that makes Theo of interest here.
Most races are more competitive in Ireland and that can often mean a horse becomes well handicapped when they travel over the sea.
Either of Theo`s last 2 runs give it chances and Ive got it around the 3/1 mark.
Stoneham and Arthurs Secret are both consistent but also beatable,
Back Theo 6pts at 7.5 at Hills/Betfred-4th(-6pts)13/2 into 11/4 and never seen with a chance at any stage.What an awful month this has been.Got the market spot on as usual but received a joke of a ride.
Its clear top rated on its performance 2 starts back over this course and distance and with its sire boasting an impressive 50% strike rate here on the polytrack surface then I expect it to continue its upward curve.
The trainer has a 38% strike rate with his runners that go off favourite here.
Encore Moi and Palenville are the dangers but both lack the upside of the selection.
Back Tegara 14pts at 3.5 at Hills/Ladbrokes-Non Runner
250 Musselburgh-I always like the Irish to Uk angle with handicappers over the jumps and that makes Theo of interest here.
Most races are more competitive in Ireland and that can often mean a horse becomes well handicapped when they travel over the sea.
Either of Theo`s last 2 runs give it chances and Ive got it around the 3/1 mark.
Stoneham and Arthurs Secret are both consistent but also beatable,
Back Theo 6pts at 7.5 at Hills/Betfred-4th(-6pts)13/2 into 11/4 and never seen with a chance at any stage.What an awful month this has been.Got the market spot on as usual but received a joke of a ride.
13th December
230 Southwell-The recent form figures of Crosse Fire are very uninspiring but you just have to forget about this horses performances anywhere other than at this track.(Elsewhere 0w-1p-21r)
It now operates off a mark 10Ibs lower than its last winning mark and drops into a grade it rarely races in.
This horse also only wins between December and March(5w-3p-9r) compared to 0w-2p-22r at other times of the year.
If you take its runs at this track over 5 furlongs,its form figures read 1st-3rd-1st-3rd-1st-1st-3rd-5th-1st-2nd.
I cant believe this wont run well and id be amazed if there wasnt money for it.
Back Crosse Fire 7pts at 9.0 at Hills-UP(-7pts)For me ,this stunk.Big mover last night but weak all day today and then the inevitable...slowly away.Clearly wasnt off today.
It now operates off a mark 10Ibs lower than its last winning mark and drops into a grade it rarely races in.
This horse also only wins between December and March(5w-3p-9r) compared to 0w-2p-22r at other times of the year.
If you take its runs at this track over 5 furlongs,its form figures read 1st-3rd-1st-3rd-1st-1st-3rd-5th-1st-2nd.
I cant believe this wont run well and id be amazed if there wasnt money for it.
Back Crosse Fire 7pts at 9.0 at Hills-UP(-7pts)For me ,this stunk.Big mover last night but weak all day today and then the inevitable...slowly away.Clearly wasnt off today.
12th December
300 Plumpton-This is a desperate race,with recent form tough to find.
The majority of the field are very inconsistent but Bonds Conquest has produced solid runs on the 3 of its last 4 starts and that gets it the vote here.
Its latest effort gives it a better chance than the odds suggest and it should go well.
Goring Two has a rating from last year that is the best here but it pulls up more than it completes and possibly wants softer ground.
Tikkapick has chances but looks like it wants further and it could get outpaced around this tight track.
Back Bonds Conquest 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-3rd(-10pts)One of those you regret very early on.As slow as a boat and despite being up there,never looked like winning.
Monthly Total-58pts
Running Total+8771.27pts
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Shimba Hills(330 Plumpton) or Cadeau Magnifique(510 Wolves) but I wanted at least 3/1 on both before getting involved.
The majority of the field are very inconsistent but Bonds Conquest has produced solid runs on the 3 of its last 4 starts and that gets it the vote here.
Its latest effort gives it a better chance than the odds suggest and it should go well.
Goring Two has a rating from last year that is the best here but it pulls up more than it completes and possibly wants softer ground.
Tikkapick has chances but looks like it wants further and it could get outpaced around this tight track.
Back Bonds Conquest 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-3rd(-10pts)One of those you regret very early on.As slow as a boat and despite being up there,never looked like winning.
Monthly Total-58pts
Running Total+8771.27pts
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Shimba Hills(330 Plumpton) or Cadeau Magnifique(510 Wolves) but I wanted at least 3/1 on both before getting involved.
11th December
1215 Southwell-The Jugopolist has spent the majority of its chasing career in far better company than this and this is actually a drop in grade after it won well last time, when running from out of the handicap.
This is such a weak affair that the only thing that can stop it from winning is if the race comes too soon as its a whole stone clear on my ratings.I would want to see an aggressive ride from the front and that should find most of these out.
Midnight Jade goes well around here and is the main danger but it shouldnt be favourite.
Back The Jugopolist 13pts at 4.0 at Marathon Bet-4th(-13pts)
135 Carlisle-The most likely winner here is West of the Edge but theres little value in its price and although its ratings are good,it hasnt posted a decent speed figure yet and this is likely to be run at a decent clip with Scotswell and Basford Ben lining up.
Ballyben should run well for a yard with a 41% strike rate here but again its price is about right.
The value for me is Cyclop,who ran a fine race last time and now gets the services of a good 5Ib claimer onboard for the first time.
Its 2 from 5 going right handed and all its best runs have been when returned to the track within 30 days.
Back Cyclop 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)(DT-19pts)
This is such a weak affair that the only thing that can stop it from winning is if the race comes too soon as its a whole stone clear on my ratings.I would want to see an aggressive ride from the front and that should find most of these out.
Midnight Jade goes well around here and is the main danger but it shouldnt be favourite.
Back The Jugopolist 13pts at 4.0 at Marathon Bet-4th(-13pts)
135 Carlisle-The most likely winner here is West of the Edge but theres little value in its price and although its ratings are good,it hasnt posted a decent speed figure yet and this is likely to be run at a decent clip with Scotswell and Basford Ben lining up.
Ballyben should run well for a yard with a 41% strike rate here but again its price is about right.
The value for me is Cyclop,who ran a fine race last time and now gets the services of a good 5Ib claimer onboard for the first time.
Its 2 from 5 going right handed and all its best runs have been when returned to the track within 30 days.
Back Cyclop 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)(DT-19pts)
10th December
1150 Doncaster-There should be plenty of pace on here with Mercers Court,Katchenko,Wells De Lune and Always On The Run all liking to force the pace and that should suit a strong stayer that sits off the pace.
Hopefully that will be Kalane,who is dropping in class and trip.
This is actually the lowest grade is has run in over fences and it has the ratings(albeit over slightly further)to take this race.
Its 2w-1p-5r going left handed and with the ground ideal,im expecting a big run.
Shadows Lenthen is another that should be suited by the way the race is run and is 2 from 4 at this track.
Back Kalane 12pts at 4.3 at Bet365-Won(+40pts)Finally a winner and an easy one.
Monthly Total-29pts
Running Total+8800.27pts
Hopefully that will be Kalane,who is dropping in class and trip.
This is actually the lowest grade is has run in over fences and it has the ratings(albeit over slightly further)to take this race.
Its 2w-1p-5r going left handed and with the ground ideal,im expecting a big run.
Shadows Lenthen is another that should be suited by the way the race is run and is 2 from 4 at this track.
Back Kalane 12pts at 4.3 at Bet365-Won(+40pts)Finally a winner and an easy one.
Monthly Total-29pts
Running Total+8800.27pts
9th December
215 Doncaster-Its recent form has been a bit in and out but even so,im surprised at Settleoutofcourt`s price here.
Its tumbled down the weights and is now 13Ibs lower than when it won over just over a year ago.
It showed a bit more last tine out and that rating gives it a far better chance than the current odds suggest and the third placed horse has since come out and won.
It likes a small field(7 runners or less 5w-3p-16r) and this time of year(Nov/Dec 3w-2p-10r)
Its the clear value in this race.
Fort Worth is consistent and should run well but is 0w-4p-14r when its handicap mark is 121+ like today while Jac the Legend is another that should run well but appears here 14Ibs above its highest winning mark.
Back Settledoutofcourt 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Another hopeless tip!
I thought St Gregory would run well in the 325 at Doncaster but I wanted at least 6/1 before I got involved and that looks unlikely.
Its tumbled down the weights and is now 13Ibs lower than when it won over just over a year ago.
It showed a bit more last tine out and that rating gives it a far better chance than the current odds suggest and the third placed horse has since come out and won.
It likes a small field(7 runners or less 5w-3p-16r) and this time of year(Nov/Dec 3w-2p-10r)
Its the clear value in this race.
Fort Worth is consistent and should run well but is 0w-4p-14r when its handicap mark is 121+ like today while Jac the Legend is another that should run well but appears here 14Ibs above its highest winning mark.
Back Settledoutofcourt 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-UP(-6pts)Another hopeless tip!
I thought St Gregory would run well in the 325 at Doncaster but I wanted at least 6/1 before I got involved and that looks unlikely.
8th December
1230 Taunton-On its first outing over 3 miles,That`s Gonna Sting posted a career best rating and that makes it stand out here.
It looks to still be improving and should take a bit of beating.
Culm Counsellor has won its last two but on my figures,it has over a stone to find with the selection.
Song of the Night is probably the main danger unless Yul Next improves for the step up in trip.
Back That`s Gonna Sting 14pts at 3.5 at Hills-UP(-14pts)Very strong in the betting but one paced in the straight.
220 Newcastle-The more rain the better for Notebook here.
All of its best ratings have come with plenty of cut and that looks assured here.
There are plenty of holes in its profile but the price compensates for that while the postives are a record of 2w-1p-5r during December and January plus hailing from a small stable that has a 27% strike rate here.
Annie Alain is the main danger in an open race.
Back Notebook 5pts at 15.0 at various bookies-UP(-5pts)(DT-19pts)
It looks to still be improving and should take a bit of beating.
Culm Counsellor has won its last two but on my figures,it has over a stone to find with the selection.
Song of the Night is probably the main danger unless Yul Next improves for the step up in trip.
Back That`s Gonna Sting 14pts at 3.5 at Hills-UP(-14pts)Very strong in the betting but one paced in the straight.
220 Newcastle-The more rain the better for Notebook here.
All of its best ratings have come with plenty of cut and that looks assured here.
There are plenty of holes in its profile but the price compensates for that while the postives are a record of 2w-1p-5r during December and January plus hailing from a small stable that has a 27% strike rate here.
Annie Alain is the main danger in an open race.
Back Notebook 5pts at 15.0 at various bookies-UP(-5pts)(DT-19pts)
6th December
100 Uttoxeter-Nick Williams does well at this track,with a 22% strike rate with all his runners but that improves to a tasty 43% if you just take his favs into account and that could easily be improved upon when Peruvian Bleu lines up here.
This horse has shown a steady improvement in its ratings and is clear top rated on its latest run.
Ive got this horse around the even money mark so the price on offer is good value.
Whispering Harry is better known as a chaser but is well treated over hurdles,whether its quick enough on this ground remains to be seen.
Fort Carson is 2w-1p-3r in this grade but is 11Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Back Peruvian Bleu 18pts at 15/8 at Betway-4th(-18pts)Apparently started very slowly,not that you could see it in the fog.Well backed beforehand and stayed on but far too much to do!
Poor start to the month
Monthly Total-63pts
Running Total+8766.27pts
This horse has shown a steady improvement in its ratings and is clear top rated on its latest run.
Ive got this horse around the even money mark so the price on offer is good value.
Whispering Harry is better known as a chaser but is well treated over hurdles,whether its quick enough on this ground remains to be seen.
Fort Carson is 2w-1p-3r in this grade but is 11Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Back Peruvian Bleu 18pts at 15/8 at Betway-4th(-18pts)Apparently started very slowly,not that you could see it in the fog.Well backed beforehand and stayed on but far too much to do!
Poor start to the month
Monthly Total-63pts
Running Total+8766.27pts
5th December
310 Ludlow-On its handicap debut last time,Presenting Berkley showed much improved form and that rating it posted then gives it a very strong chance in this weak race.
Its got one of the better jockeys on board and I would expect it to go close,if repeating that last run.
Double Court is very consistent,which is something that cant be said about most of its opponents but its also clearly beatable.
Marvellous Monty makes its handicap debut but returns after an absence.It has chances on the best of its previous efforts.
Back Presenting Berkley18pts at 15/8 at Corals/Betvictor-Meeting abandoned
Its got one of the better jockeys on board and I would expect it to go close,if repeating that last run.
Double Court is very consistent,which is something that cant be said about most of its opponents but its also clearly beatable.
Marvellous Monty makes its handicap debut but returns after an absence.It has chances on the best of its previous efforts.
Back Presenting Berkley18pts at 15/8 at Corals/Betvictor-Meeting abandoned
4th December
Demographic(1230) and Satanic Beat(130) should both run well at Huntingdon but neither price is quite big enough to tempt me in.
Hopefully this coming week will see my laptop finally fixed,so I can get going with the football again.
No selections
Hopefully this coming week will see my laptop finally fixed,so I can get going with the football again.
No selections
3rd December
300 Sandown-If Un De Sceaux turns up and produces its best then it will make them all go but on ground quicker than ideal and turning up after a long absence(Fell the last 2 seasons FTO),I think we can take it on.
Sire De Grugy has a fine record at this track(4w-2p-7r) and has actually won this race twice in the last 3 years.The quick return to the track is also a plus(14 days or less 6 wins out of 6)
Gods Own has chances but the trainer has just a 5% strike rate here but Ar Mad could be a danger as it was progressing well before an injury stopped its progress last season.
Back Sire De Grugy 12pts at 4.5 at Hills-2nd(-12pts)Looked to have it as it hit the front at the last but just got nutted near the line.
215 Chepstow-Zanstra produced a fine performance last time out,on just its second start over fences.
It stands out on my figures and with possible further improvement to come plus the services of Paddy Brennan for the first time(25% strike rate for the yard) then I would have it around the 7/4 mark.
Tornado in Milan has been a model of consistency but this ground is fast enough for it and its never been at its best around here.
My ratings suggest its got 9Ibs to find with the selection.
Atirelarigo is difficult to assess but has to be rated a danger given the connections while Allow Dallow has chances on my figures but is normally one to take on.
Back Zanstra 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Fell(-12pts)Well backed but came down when in contention at the 2nd last.(DT-24pts)
Sire De Grugy has a fine record at this track(4w-2p-7r) and has actually won this race twice in the last 3 years.The quick return to the track is also a plus(14 days or less 6 wins out of 6)
Gods Own has chances but the trainer has just a 5% strike rate here but Ar Mad could be a danger as it was progressing well before an injury stopped its progress last season.
Back Sire De Grugy 12pts at 4.5 at Hills-2nd(-12pts)Looked to have it as it hit the front at the last but just got nutted near the line.
215 Chepstow-Zanstra produced a fine performance last time out,on just its second start over fences.
It stands out on my figures and with possible further improvement to come plus the services of Paddy Brennan for the first time(25% strike rate for the yard) then I would have it around the 7/4 mark.
Tornado in Milan has been a model of consistency but this ground is fast enough for it and its never been at its best around here.
My ratings suggest its got 9Ibs to find with the selection.
Atirelarigo is difficult to assess but has to be rated a danger given the connections while Allow Dallow has chances on my figures but is normally one to take on.
Back Zanstra 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Fell(-12pts)Well backed but came down when in contention at the 2nd last.(DT-24pts)
2nd December
300 Sandown-Red Devil Star is unexposed over fences after just 2 starts and its latest run saw it post an improving rating.
With conditions ideal,im surprised it isnt favourite.
Although it hails from a small stable,they have a very good 28% strike rate when they have horses in the front 3 in the betting like this particular race.
Gores Island currently heads the market after a decent seasonal reappearance but it needs to better last seasons best if its to trouble the selection.
The main danger for me is Greywell Boy,who returns after over 500 days but makes its debut for the Harry Fry stable.Im sure it will turn up fit but whether its the same horse as before remains to be seen.If it is then its a big runner here.
Back Red Devil Star 12pts at 4.3 at Stan James-3rd(-12pts)Too many mistakes over the fences.
335 Sandown-Some improving types on show here but none appeal more than Major Mac.
Its only had 3 runs but stands out on my figures on its all the way win last time out.
That was over further but could actually prove better back in trip.It should be clear favourite.
That honour goes to Utility and although I respect the early money from this stable,its got to find some improvement if the selection runs its race.
Vivas and Vocaliser have place chances.
Back Major Mac 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-UP(-9pts)Tanked into the race but found nothing(DT-21pts)
With conditions ideal,im surprised it isnt favourite.
Although it hails from a small stable,they have a very good 28% strike rate when they have horses in the front 3 in the betting like this particular race.
Gores Island currently heads the market after a decent seasonal reappearance but it needs to better last seasons best if its to trouble the selection.
The main danger for me is Greywell Boy,who returns after over 500 days but makes its debut for the Harry Fry stable.Im sure it will turn up fit but whether its the same horse as before remains to be seen.If it is then its a big runner here.
Back Red Devil Star 12pts at 4.3 at Stan James-3rd(-12pts)Too many mistakes over the fences.
335 Sandown-Some improving types on show here but none appeal more than Major Mac.
Its only had 3 runs but stands out on my figures on its all the way win last time out.
That was over further but could actually prove better back in trip.It should be clear favourite.
That honour goes to Utility and although I respect the early money from this stable,its got to find some improvement if the selection runs its race.
Vivas and Vocaliser have place chances.
Back Major Mac 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-UP(-9pts)Tanked into the race but found nothing(DT-21pts)
30th November
140 Lingfield-Any one whos followed me for any length of time will know,im not a fan of this jockey.
So if we are held up,off a slow pace,meeting traffic trouble and flash home for second then shoot me!
However,on my ratings,Master Of The World is an even money chance for me,so the current price is more than fair.
Its unexposed on the all weather and drops in class for this.
Battalion is the clear danger.It won this race last year but has since left the Haggas yard and im not sure how many improve for that.
Back Master Of The World 18pts at 3.0 at Various bookies-2nd(-18pts)Plenty of money for it but was well beaten.Strong month nonetheless.
Monthly Total+193.80pts
Running Total+8829.27pts
So if we are held up,off a slow pace,meeting traffic trouble and flash home for second then shoot me!
However,on my ratings,Master Of The World is an even money chance for me,so the current price is more than fair.
Its unexposed on the all weather and drops in class for this.
Battalion is the clear danger.It won this race last year but has since left the Haggas yard and im not sure how many improve for that.
Back Master Of The World 18pts at 3.0 at Various bookies-2nd(-18pts)Plenty of money for it but was well beaten.Strong month nonetheless.
Monthly Total+193.80pts
Running Total+8829.27pts
29th November
Nothing catches my eye for tomorrow,so we will keep our powder dry until the next winning opportunity shows itself.
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Please donate(Use email addresses at the top of the page to donate on paypal) to keep this site free to view.
28th November
140 Ludlow-Alanjou is nicely handicapped now(11Ibs below its last winning mark) and ran an encouraging race last time to suggest,it could be ready to strike.
It jumped right at times last time,so possibly the R/H track could suit and based on that latest run,its way overpriced here,in what is a very weak race.
Upbeat Cobbler should run well but offers little value while Mr Mafia disappointed over hurdles last time but has chances on its last run over fneces.
Back Alanjou 7pts at 9.0 at Boyles/Betfair Sportsbook-PU(-7pts)Made a bad mistake and was then pulled up quickly.This race was there for the taking.
200 Plumpton-Tambura won this race last year and looks teed up for a repeat.
It ran well on its seasonal debut last time, before weakening before the last but should be primed for a big run here.
Its got a good 2w-0p-5r record around this track while the jockey is 3w-4p-8r riding for this trainer.
Its 3w-2p-8r during November and December and is 4w-4p-13r in fields of 9 or less.
Its a strong profile and it should go close.
Very Extravagant drops in class and has to be a danger but makes no appeal at the prices.
Theatre Goer has a chance of its best ratings from last season but is 16Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Misty Mai is unexposed but needs to improve bundles to contend.
All the others have something to prove.
Back Tambura 12pts at 4.0 at Various bookies-Won(+36pts)Hurdled superbly and stuck on well(DT+29pts)
Monthly Total+211.80pts
Running Total+8847.27pts
It jumped right at times last time,so possibly the R/H track could suit and based on that latest run,its way overpriced here,in what is a very weak race.
Upbeat Cobbler should run well but offers little value while Mr Mafia disappointed over hurdles last time but has chances on its last run over fneces.
Back Alanjou 7pts at 9.0 at Boyles/Betfair Sportsbook-PU(-7pts)Made a bad mistake and was then pulled up quickly.This race was there for the taking.
200 Plumpton-Tambura won this race last year and looks teed up for a repeat.
It ran well on its seasonal debut last time, before weakening before the last but should be primed for a big run here.
Its got a good 2w-0p-5r record around this track while the jockey is 3w-4p-8r riding for this trainer.
Its 3w-2p-8r during November and December and is 4w-4p-13r in fields of 9 or less.
Its a strong profile and it should go close.
Very Extravagant drops in class and has to be a danger but makes no appeal at the prices.
Theatre Goer has a chance of its best ratings from last season but is 16Ibs higher than its highest winning mark.
Misty Mai is unexposed but needs to improve bundles to contend.
All the others have something to prove.
Back Tambura 12pts at 4.0 at Various bookies-Won(+36pts)Hurdled superbly and stuck on well(DT+29pts)
Monthly Total+211.80pts
Running Total+8847.27pts
27th November
No Selections
The closest I came to a selection was Lee Side Lady(240 Leicester) but the price isnt big enough.
The closest I came to a selection was Lee Side Lady(240 Leicester) but the price isnt big enough.
26th November
230 Doncaster-Ive no idea what Our Thomas is doing as favourite.Its got a lot to find on my figures and this is a decent race.
I wouldnt put anyone off laying it but instead I will take it on with 2 horses.
Mystic Sky is a consistent performer and this race is a drop in class from its good run last time out.The jockey/trainer combo have a 25% strike rate and this horse is 3w-2p-9r in fields of 9 or less.
Cornborough posted a good rating last time and an outstanding topspeed figure.A reproduction of that makes it a big player here,its also 2 from 3 over this trip.
Sleep Easy is very unexposed and could be anything.
Back Mystic Sky 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies & Back Cornborough-2nd 7pts at 7.0 at skybet/Paddys(-14pts)
I wouldnt put anyone off laying it but instead I will take it on with 2 horses.
Mystic Sky is a consistent performer and this race is a drop in class from its good run last time out.The jockey/trainer combo have a 25% strike rate and this horse is 3w-2p-9r in fields of 9 or less.
Cornborough posted a good rating last time and an outstanding topspeed figure.A reproduction of that makes it a big player here,its also 2 from 3 over this trip.
Sleep Easy is very unexposed and could be anything.
Back Mystic Sky 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies & Back Cornborough-2nd 7pts at 7.0 at skybet/Paddys(-14pts)
645 Wolves-Win Lose Draw to my eye,has been running over the wrong trip.Its best rating(By a long way) was over this course and distance last March.
Its since ran 4 times all over longer trips that appear to stretch its stamina.Anything close to the figure it posted, the only time its ran over this trip,will make it a big runner here and the adding of headgear could also bring about improvement.
Back Win Lose Draw 6pts at 8.0 at Betvictor/Paddys-Won(+42pts)Well backed and won by half the straight.(DT+28pts)
Its since ran 4 times all over longer trips that appear to stretch its stamina.Anything close to the figure it posted, the only time its ran over this trip,will make it a big runner here and the adding of headgear could also bring about improvement.
Back Win Lose Draw 6pts at 8.0 at Betvictor/Paddys-Won(+42pts)Well backed and won by half the straight.(DT+28pts)
Monthly Total+182.80
Running Total+8818.27pts
21st November
I have major Laptop issues.
A black screen on start up(Not good at all)
I have had to borrow a PC just to post this message,so until I get it repaired then there wont be any selections.
Hopefully it wont be too long but remember we have a football selection still to run.
(Danish Superliga)
Silkeborg v Esbjerg-Back Silkeborg 15pts at 21/20 at Various bookies-Won 3-0(+15.75pts)
A black screen on start up(Not good at all)
I have had to borrow a PC just to post this message,so until I get it repaired then there wont be any selections.
Hopefully it wont be too long but remember we have a football selection still to run.
(Danish Superliga)
Silkeborg v Esbjerg-Back Silkeborg 15pts at 21/20 at Various bookies-Won 3-0(+15.75pts)
20th November
I think Mumgo`s Debut will take a bit of beating(315 Uttoxeter) but its around the right price.
So No Selections.
So No Selections.
19th November
200 Lingfield-If Donjuan Triumphant turns up with its `A` game then it will take a bit of beating but it hasnt been anywhere near its best since mid summer & looks a very short price to me.
Im happy to take it on with Alfred Hutchinson,who would be a pretty strong selection if this was over an extra furlong but it ran well over this course and distance,two starts back,so im hopeful of another good performance.
It hasnt raced in this lower class since 2013 & its record in this grade and on the all weather reads 1st-1st-1st-2nd.It looks rock solid to me.
Seychelloise has chances but is around the right price.
Back Alfred Hutchinson 10pts at 5.0 at Various bookies-Won(+40pts)
215 Huntingdon-Not many prolific winners on show here and this race is there for the taking.
Moorlands Jack can turn in the odd stinker but ran well last time on ground much softer than ideal & overa trip probably slightly too far.
This horse is 6w-2p-23r in races around this trip & is a 5 time winner in this grade,it also races here off a mark 7Ibs lower than it last won off.
It should be favourite.
Allow Dallow looks the main threat to me,its trainer does very well here(36%) and this horse is 1/1 at this track(Its only career win).It will cruise up but whether it goes past is another thing.
Back Moorlands Jack 7pts at 7.0 at Betvictor/Corals-UP(-7pts)
(Premier League)
Stoke v Bournemouth-Back Stoke 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies-Lost(-12pts)(DT+21pts)
Monthly Total+139.05pts
Running Total+8795.52pts
Im happy to take it on with Alfred Hutchinson,who would be a pretty strong selection if this was over an extra furlong but it ran well over this course and distance,two starts back,so im hopeful of another good performance.
It hasnt raced in this lower class since 2013 & its record in this grade and on the all weather reads 1st-1st-1st-2nd.It looks rock solid to me.
Seychelloise has chances but is around the right price.
Back Alfred Hutchinson 10pts at 5.0 at Various bookies-Won(+40pts)
215 Huntingdon-Not many prolific winners on show here and this race is there for the taking.
Moorlands Jack can turn in the odd stinker but ran well last time on ground much softer than ideal & overa trip probably slightly too far.
This horse is 6w-2p-23r in races around this trip & is a 5 time winner in this grade,it also races here off a mark 7Ibs lower than it last won off.
It should be favourite.
Allow Dallow looks the main threat to me,its trainer does very well here(36%) and this horse is 1/1 at this track(Its only career win).It will cruise up but whether it goes past is another thing.
Back Moorlands Jack 7pts at 7.0 at Betvictor/Corals-UP(-7pts)
(Premier League)
Stoke v Bournemouth-Back Stoke 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies-Lost(-12pts)(DT+21pts)
Monthly Total+139.05pts
Running Total+8795.52pts
18th November
330 Ffos Las-Probably the most likely winner of this race is Royal Salute but there are negatives against it and it looks very short at even money.
The fav won well last time on its seasonal debut but this is only 5 days later while it also has to carry a massive weight plus the trainer is 0w-4p-19r around this track.
Take it on with Twenty Eight Guns,who is unexposed over fences and ran an encouraging race on its first run of the season.
Im no fan of the jockey but he is 4 from 8 for this stable and it does look a bit overpriced.
Mr Bachster returns after an absence(has won fresh before) but is 0w-1p-13r going left handed like today.
Humbel Ben is on a hat trick but is 0w-1p-11r during November and December,its also at its best on good ground.
Try It Sometime possibly wants further & needs to come on a lot for its reappearance but it does have some ratings that make it competitive,it is however 0w-0p-4r at this track.
Back Twenty Eight Guns 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Won(+34pts*1 Non runner) Smashed into 2/1 and jumped really well to hold on.
Football
(Premier League)
Stoke v Bournemouth-Back Stoke 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies
(Danish Superliga)
Silkeborg v Esbjerg-Back Silkeborg 15pts at 21/20 at Various bookies
Monthly Total+118.05pts
Running Total+8774.52pts
The fav won well last time on its seasonal debut but this is only 5 days later while it also has to carry a massive weight plus the trainer is 0w-4p-19r around this track.
Take it on with Twenty Eight Guns,who is unexposed over fences and ran an encouraging race on its first run of the season.
Im no fan of the jockey but he is 4 from 8 for this stable and it does look a bit overpriced.
Mr Bachster returns after an absence(has won fresh before) but is 0w-1p-13r going left handed like today.
Humbel Ben is on a hat trick but is 0w-1p-11r during November and December,its also at its best on good ground.
Try It Sometime possibly wants further & needs to come on a lot for its reappearance but it does have some ratings that make it competitive,it is however 0w-0p-4r at this track.
Back Twenty Eight Guns 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-Won(+34pts*1 Non runner) Smashed into 2/1 and jumped really well to hold on.
Football
(Premier League)
Stoke v Bournemouth-Back Stoke 12pts at 13/10 at various bookies
(Danish Superliga)
Silkeborg v Esbjerg-Back Silkeborg 15pts at 21/20 at Various bookies
Monthly Total+118.05pts
Running Total+8774.52pts
17th November
I looked at Links Drive Lady(550 Chelmsford) a lot but its poor track form puts me off.
No Selections
No Selections
15th November
135 Fakenham-Unless Shaky Gift improves bundles on its third chase start then this race looks at the mercy of Dawnieriver.
Its been improving steadily & is clear top rated after hacking up last time out.
Tom Scudamore is 2w-3p-8r on the horse,so clearly gets on well with it and this horse is odds on in my tissue prices.
Queen Spud is 3 from 3 here and that makes it a threat but my figures suggest,its got a few pounds to find here & possibly is better at shorter.
Back Dawnieriver 25pts at 2.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-25pts)Led everywhere but the final 5 yards,which is the vital bit I guess.Really disappointing!
315 Southwell-I will be astonished if Rossington isnt a significantly shorter price at the off than is currently available.
It produced easily a career best last time and is a massive runner if that form can be trusted but its backed up by a good speed figure and it has to be supported at the prices.
Jaunty Thor appears under a penalty but isnt a good thing on my figures particularly with a poor 0w-1p-6r record in fields of 10 or more like today while Destiny Shadow isnt out of it.
Back Rossington 5pts at 13.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-5pts)Got it all wrong here.No money for it and went off too fast.(DT-30pts)
Monthly Total+84.05pts
Running Total+8740.52pts
Its been improving steadily & is clear top rated after hacking up last time out.
Tom Scudamore is 2w-3p-8r on the horse,so clearly gets on well with it and this horse is odds on in my tissue prices.
Queen Spud is 3 from 3 here and that makes it a threat but my figures suggest,its got a few pounds to find here & possibly is better at shorter.
Back Dawnieriver 25pts at 2.5 at Various Bookies-2nd(-25pts)Led everywhere but the final 5 yards,which is the vital bit I guess.Really disappointing!
315 Southwell-I will be astonished if Rossington isnt a significantly shorter price at the off than is currently available.
It produced easily a career best last time and is a massive runner if that form can be trusted but its backed up by a good speed figure and it has to be supported at the prices.
Jaunty Thor appears under a penalty but isnt a good thing on my figures particularly with a poor 0w-1p-6r record in fields of 10 or more like today while Destiny Shadow isnt out of it.
Back Rossington 5pts at 13.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-5pts)Got it all wrong here.No money for it and went off too fast.(DT-30pts)
Monthly Total+84.05pts
Running Total+8740.52pts
14th November
1250 Musselburgh-The strike rate of Donna`s Pride is very ordinary but 2 miles,on decent ground and in this grade are its optimum conditions.
Its finished 2nd both times its had those circumstances & id be surprised if it wasnt involved at the finish.I would certainly have it shorter than the prices available.
Mitcd is unexposed and is very much respected but on pure ratings,it needs to find a few pounds to match the best of these.
Rioja Day & Urban Kode shouldnt be far away but there is little strength in depth here.
Back Donna`s Pride 8pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Betvictor-2nd(-8pts)Cruised into contention and found nothing.
320 Musselburgh-You can find faults with many here and I can find only a few that could be involved.
Harleys Max is the one I like.Its got a career record of 2/24 but is actually 2/2 at this track and 2w-1p-6r over this trip.
Its got a nice consistent profile and I would expect it to go close at a nice price.
Quick Brew won last time and posted a competitive rating but has a career strike rate of 6%,which hardly inspires a follow up.
Quick Decisson heads my ratings but that was over 2 miles,its record over this trip(2m3f)is over a stone lower plus the trainer is 0w-3p-16r with his runners at this track.
John Williams looks the main threat,as its a course and distance winner with a slowly progressive profile,however having said that,its a ridiculous price at 7/4.
Back Harleys Max 7pts at 7.5 at Various bookies-PU(-7pts)This was incredibly poor from a very consistent horse.
350 Musselburgh-Green Zone looks a bit overpriced here and warrants an interest.
It ran well last time and if backing that run up then I will be right there at the business end.
Its a got a good 2w-1p-8r record going right handed.
Stoneham heads the dangers,it drops in class and races under conditions that should be ideal but as usual,its all price related and this one looks a bit tight on my figures.
Back Green Zone 7pts at 8.0 at Various bookies-UP(-7pts)Just a very poor day.(DT-22pts)
Its finished 2nd both times its had those circumstances & id be surprised if it wasnt involved at the finish.I would certainly have it shorter than the prices available.
Mitcd is unexposed and is very much respected but on pure ratings,it needs to find a few pounds to match the best of these.
Rioja Day & Urban Kode shouldnt be far away but there is little strength in depth here.
Back Donna`s Pride 8pts at 5.5 at Bet365/Betvictor-2nd(-8pts)Cruised into contention and found nothing.
320 Musselburgh-You can find faults with many here and I can find only a few that could be involved.
Harleys Max is the one I like.Its got a career record of 2/24 but is actually 2/2 at this track and 2w-1p-6r over this trip.
Its got a nice consistent profile and I would expect it to go close at a nice price.
Quick Brew won last time and posted a competitive rating but has a career strike rate of 6%,which hardly inspires a follow up.
Quick Decisson heads my ratings but that was over 2 miles,its record over this trip(2m3f)is over a stone lower plus the trainer is 0w-3p-16r with his runners at this track.
John Williams looks the main threat,as its a course and distance winner with a slowly progressive profile,however having said that,its a ridiculous price at 7/4.
Back Harleys Max 7pts at 7.5 at Various bookies-PU(-7pts)This was incredibly poor from a very consistent horse.
350 Musselburgh-Green Zone looks a bit overpriced here and warrants an interest.
It ran well last time and if backing that run up then I will be right there at the business end.
Its a got a good 2w-1p-8r record going right handed.
Stoneham heads the dangers,it drops in class and races under conditions that should be ideal but as usual,its all price related and this one looks a bit tight on my figures.
Back Green Zone 7pts at 8.0 at Various bookies-UP(-7pts)Just a very poor day.(DT-22pts)
13th November
Nothing for tomorrow again,im afraid.
Its been an excellent start to the month,so im not getting involved unless it warrants it.
Its been an excellent start to the month,so im not getting involved unless it warrants it.
11th November
The closest I got to bets were Island Flame(120 Lingfield) & St Gregory(140 Newcastle) but neither are overpriced enough to warrant getting involved.
10th January
115 Towcester-Tobacco Road may prove better than these.Its been well backed and makes its handicap debut here,however Its short enough in my view & could be worth taking on.
Angus Glens appears under a penalty and has chances but is 0w-2p-9r going right handed like today.
Horseguardsparade takes a big drop in trip but has a chance based on its run over 2m4 three starts back.
Peruvien Bleu represents a stable that do well here but it needs to improve on whats its done so far,so that leaves me with Londonia,who disappointed on the flat last time but that was on the all weather & its never put a performance together on any of the artificial surfaces,so that could be the reason.
On its hurdles ratings,it looks overpriced here.
Its latest run over timber gives it every chance here and the horses that finished around it have given the form a solid look.
Ive got it around the 4/1 mark,so the price available is big.
Back Londonia 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Called the market correct again and this horse looked a big threat but 2 poor jumps late on saw it held.
Angus Glens appears under a penalty and has chances but is 0w-2p-9r going right handed like today.
Horseguardsparade takes a big drop in trip but has a chance based on its run over 2m4 three starts back.
Peruvien Bleu represents a stable that do well here but it needs to improve on whats its done so far,so that leaves me with Londonia,who disappointed on the flat last time but that was on the all weather & its never put a performance together on any of the artificial surfaces,so that could be the reason.
On its hurdles ratings,it looks overpriced here.
Its latest run over timber gives it every chance here and the horses that finished around it have given the form a solid look.
Ive got it around the 4/1 mark,so the price available is big.
Back Londonia 6pts at 9.0 at various bookies-3rd(-6pts)Called the market correct again and this horse looked a big threat but 2 poor jumps late on saw it held.
9th November
1250 Bangor-From a ratings perspective,Mungos Debut stands out here.
It produced easily a career best last time out(its first run after a wind operation) and anything close to that rating will win this.
Any rain(Forecast is for plenty) will make its chance stronger and the trainer has a 25% strike rate at this track in the last 2 years.
Ballycoe was steadily improving when we last saw it but will need to be at the top of its game to take this.Kings Cross is probably the biggest danger.
Back Mungos Debut 16pts at 3.25 at bet365-Won(+44pts Paid out BOG) A couple of sketchy jumps but this won easily,like the ratings said it would.
Monthly Total+142.05pts
Running Total+8798.52pts
It produced easily a career best last time out(its first run after a wind operation) and anything close to that rating will win this.
Any rain(Forecast is for plenty) will make its chance stronger and the trainer has a 25% strike rate at this track in the last 2 years.
Ballycoe was steadily improving when we last saw it but will need to be at the top of its game to take this.Kings Cross is probably the biggest danger.
Back Mungos Debut 16pts at 3.25 at bet365-Won(+44pts Paid out BOG) A couple of sketchy jumps but this won easily,like the ratings said it would.
Monthly Total+142.05pts
Running Total+8798.52pts
7th November
Football
Denmark
Odense v Lyngby-Won 2-1
Viborg v Brondby-Won 2-1
MLS
New York City v Toronto-Won 5-0
Back Lyngby(Double Chance),Brondby(win),Toronto(Double chance) in a 5pts Treble(Pays 4/1)(+20pts)
305 Kempton-After a spell in the doldrums,Parish Business returned last time,after a break and dropped in trip,to win easily and if that run is backed up here then its a big price.
I have a slight niggle that its been a little below par on right handed tracks but that is from a small sample and with the jockey having a 21% strike rate for this yard,I expect this horse`s odds to shorten and to run well.
Forever Field drops in class and looks the biggest danger although L`Aigle Royal makes its second start for the Skelton yard and is respected.
Back Parish Business 7pts at 7.0 at Corals-UP(-7pts)Got some great value as it returned at 9/4 but never looked like the winner.
110 Carlisle-Stone Quercus ran only a few days ago but turns out here making its handicap debut.
The rating it produced last time out,suggested two things.One that its improving and two,its very well handicapped here.
The speed figure backs up the rating and anything close to that last run would make it tough to beat.
I also like the fact the stallion has a 25% strike rate at this track.
There are a host of horses making their handicap debut and market signals will tell how much fancied opposition there is.
Back Stone Quercus 18pts at 3.0 at Ladbrokes/Hills-5th(-18pts)Was very keen early on but this was a very disappointing run(DT-25pts)
Monthly Total+82.05pts
Running Total+8738.52pts
Denmark
Odense v Lyngby-Won 2-1
Viborg v Brondby-Won 2-1
MLS
New York City v Toronto-Won 5-0
Back Lyngby(Double Chance),Brondby(win),Toronto(Double chance) in a 5pts Treble(Pays 4/1)(+20pts)
305 Kempton-After a spell in the doldrums,Parish Business returned last time,after a break and dropped in trip,to win easily and if that run is backed up here then its a big price.
I have a slight niggle that its been a little below par on right handed tracks but that is from a small sample and with the jockey having a 21% strike rate for this yard,I expect this horse`s odds to shorten and to run well.
Forever Field drops in class and looks the biggest danger although L`Aigle Royal makes its second start for the Skelton yard and is respected.
Back Parish Business 7pts at 7.0 at Corals-UP(-7pts)Got some great value as it returned at 9/4 but never looked like the winner.
110 Carlisle-Stone Quercus ran only a few days ago but turns out here making its handicap debut.
The rating it produced last time out,suggested two things.One that its improving and two,its very well handicapped here.
The speed figure backs up the rating and anything close to that last run would make it tough to beat.
I also like the fact the stallion has a 25% strike rate at this track.
There are a host of horses making their handicap debut and market signals will tell how much fancied opposition there is.
Back Stone Quercus 18pts at 3.0 at Ladbrokes/Hills-5th(-18pts)Was very keen early on but this was a very disappointing run(DT-25pts)
Monthly Total+82.05pts
Running Total+8738.52pts
5th November
245 Wincanton-Three quick races might catch up with it but from a ratings perspective,On Demand shouldnt be the price it is here.
Its found a nice vein of form and will have a very low weight here with the young jockey taking off 10Ibs,I dont know much about him but I do know hes 1/1 for this trainer.
Its the wrong price so we have to get involved.
The likes of Mia`s Storm,Antartica De Thaix and Rene`s Girl all have some decent form to their name from last season but the selection does have race fitness on its side.
Back On Demand 7pts at 8.0 at Various bookies-Won(+22.05pts *Rule 4)Went off a strong favourite after 2 non runners.Jumped out,made all and won easily.
255 Kelso-I tipped Domtaline last time when the 2 miles around Wetherby was an insufficient test for it although if it had jumped any of the final 3 fences properly,it would have gone very close.
The extra yardage here is in its favour and I expect it to run well,given a decent round of jumping.
The Herds Garden ran well on its first start for the McCain yard and it looks the main danger while Imjoeking has tumbled down the weights and wont be far away.
Quick Decisson is up in class and is far too short in the market for me.
Back Domtaline 7pts at 7.0 at Various bookies-3rd(-7pts)Just couldnt quite get into it.(DT+15.05pts)
Monthly Total+87.05pts
Running Total+8743.52pts
Football
Denmark
Odense v Lyngby
Viborg v Brondby
MLS
New York City v Toronto
Back Lyngby(Double Chance),Brondby(win),Toronto(Double chance) in a 5pts Treble(Pays 4/1)
Its found a nice vein of form and will have a very low weight here with the young jockey taking off 10Ibs,I dont know much about him but I do know hes 1/1 for this trainer.
Its the wrong price so we have to get involved.
The likes of Mia`s Storm,Antartica De Thaix and Rene`s Girl all have some decent form to their name from last season but the selection does have race fitness on its side.
Back On Demand 7pts at 8.0 at Various bookies-Won(+22.05pts *Rule 4)Went off a strong favourite after 2 non runners.Jumped out,made all and won easily.
255 Kelso-I tipped Domtaline last time when the 2 miles around Wetherby was an insufficient test for it although if it had jumped any of the final 3 fences properly,it would have gone very close.
The extra yardage here is in its favour and I expect it to run well,given a decent round of jumping.
The Herds Garden ran well on its first start for the McCain yard and it looks the main danger while Imjoeking has tumbled down the weights and wont be far away.
Quick Decisson is up in class and is far too short in the market for me.
Back Domtaline 7pts at 7.0 at Various bookies-3rd(-7pts)Just couldnt quite get into it.(DT+15.05pts)
Monthly Total+87.05pts
Running Total+8743.52pts
Football
Denmark
Odense v Lyngby
Viborg v Brondby
MLS
New York City v Toronto
Back Lyngby(Double Chance),Brondby(win),Toronto(Double chance) in a 5pts Treble(Pays 4/1)
4th November
400 Hexham-Bescot Springs goes well at this specialist track(2w-1p-7r) and holds a solid chance based on its latest second placed finish.
Im a little concerned about its consistency but if its ever going to back that last run up,it will be here and its back on its last winning mark with the yards young conditional rider up taking off 10Ibs.
I would have it a shorter price than it is.
Solway Sam ran a better race than of late last time but at 13yo,its hardly going to be improving.
Been Decided has shown very little but steps into handicap company for the first time while Toarmandowithlove is still 0/24 but the one I fear is Forty Crown,whos well handicapped and is 1/1 in this grade.
It became an increasingly disappointing horse for its previous trainer but has now joined the George Bewley stable,however he normally likes to have a look at them first before having them ready to win.(0/20 with recruits from other yards).
I would imagine the market will tell its tale.
Back Bescot Springs 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Won(+36pts)Jumped lovely and the young jockey excelled.
Monthly Total+72pts
Running Total+8728.47pts
Im a little concerned about its consistency but if its ever going to back that last run up,it will be here and its back on its last winning mark with the yards young conditional rider up taking off 10Ibs.
I would have it a shorter price than it is.
Solway Sam ran a better race than of late last time but at 13yo,its hardly going to be improving.
Been Decided has shown very little but steps into handicap company for the first time while Toarmandowithlove is still 0/24 but the one I fear is Forty Crown,whos well handicapped and is 1/1 in this grade.
It became an increasingly disappointing horse for its previous trainer but has now joined the George Bewley stable,however he normally likes to have a look at them first before having them ready to win.(0/20 with recruits from other yards).
I would imagine the market will tell its tale.
Back Bescot Springs 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Won(+36pts)Jumped lovely and the young jockey excelled.
Monthly Total+72pts
Running Total+8728.47pts
3rd November
105 Market Rasen-This looks a good opportunity for Vivas.
Its been running well in better races than this and it holds a very good chance from a ratings perspective.
Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a good record at many tracks but not many better than this one.
He holds a 22% strike rate with all his horses here but if you just take his runners in the front two of the market at this track then his record 30 wins from 74 runners(40% strike rate).
The Kvilleken is a threat if it fancies it but it normally doesnt while Grey Life makes its debut for a new yard but is better known as a chaser.
Cosmic Statesman has only had 2 runs over hurdles but has a career record of 0/20.
Back Vivas 16pts at 3.25 at bet365/Betvictor-Won(+36pts)Given a cool ride by the young jockey.
Nice start to the month!
Running Total=+8692.47pts
Its been running well in better races than this and it holds a very good chance from a ratings perspective.
Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a good record at many tracks but not many better than this one.
He holds a 22% strike rate with all his horses here but if you just take his runners in the front two of the market at this track then his record 30 wins from 74 runners(40% strike rate).
The Kvilleken is a threat if it fancies it but it normally doesnt while Grey Life makes its debut for a new yard but is better known as a chaser.
Cosmic Statesman has only had 2 runs over hurdles but has a career record of 0/20.
Back Vivas 16pts at 3.25 at bet365/Betvictor-Won(+36pts)Given a cool ride by the young jockey.
Nice start to the month!
Running Total=+8692.47pts
31st October
Orebro v Ostersunds-Back Ostersunds 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 8/5 at various bookies-Won(+16pts)
Monthly Total+12.75pts
Running Total+8680.72pts
Finished the month with a winner,to give us a small profit on another difficult month.
A few days off for me and get ready to go again soon!
Monthly Total+12.75pts
Running Total+8680.72pts
Finished the month with a winner,to give us a small profit on another difficult month.
A few days off for me and get ready to go again soon!
30th October
Its fairly clear,im just treading water with certainly the horses at the moment.
We are in profit for the month but not by much,this is always a tough time of year with the flat finishing and the jumps just getting going properly,so will have a few days off to recharge my batteries.
Obviously there is still the football that was posted yesterday to be getting on with.
We are in profit for the month but not by much,this is always a tough time of year with the flat finishing and the jumps just getting going properly,so will have a few days off to recharge my batteries.
Obviously there is still the football that was posted yesterday to be getting on with.
29th September
410 Ascot-Cases can be made for Followmybuttons on its handicap debut and from a ratings perspective,Wolftrap although the latter is 0w-0p-6r going right handed but at the prices,Arty Campbell appeals most.
This horse has a solid chance on its ratings over 2 miles but considering its a 4 time winner over that trip on the flat then it would seem obvious that it would need further over hurdles and thats what it gets for the first time here.
Back Arty Campbell 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-4th(-7pts)Once again,got the value right but this horse looked dangerous but the jockey seemed to let the leaders get away.
FOOTBALL
Sweden
Gefle v Malmo-Back Malmo 15pts at 11/10 at Betvictor/Betfair
Orebro v Ostersunds-Back Ostersunds 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 8/5 at various bookies
England
Southampton v Chelsea-Back Southampton 14pts(Draw No Bet) at 11/10 at various bookies
This horse has a solid chance on its ratings over 2 miles but considering its a 4 time winner over that trip on the flat then it would seem obvious that it would need further over hurdles and thats what it gets for the first time here.
Back Arty Campbell 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-4th(-7pts)Once again,got the value right but this horse looked dangerous but the jockey seemed to let the leaders get away.
FOOTBALL
Sweden
Gefle v Malmo-Back Malmo 15pts at 11/10 at Betvictor/Betfair
Orebro v Ostersunds-Back Ostersunds 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 8/5 at various bookies
England
Southampton v Chelsea-Back Southampton 14pts(Draw No Bet) at 11/10 at various bookies
28th October
245 Wetherby-This is a rise in grade but the rating and speed figure posted by Today Please last time out,gives it strong claims here.
This horses form has gone up a level since it joined the Henry Oliver yard and I doubt the improvement has stopped yet.
Jockey James Davies has a 22% strike rate for this yard and interestingly,the stallion is an impressive 9 from 25 with its runners here.
Hadfield is lightly raced and can improve but needs too while Milrow has more on its plate here than the race it won last time.
Back Today Please 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-3rd(-9pts)Hammered into 9/4 but one paced.
420 Uttoxeter-Some strange prices on show here and I expect some changes pre race.
Special Wells wants softer ground and has a poor record after an absence,so why its 2nd fav is beyond me.Strongly Suggested is very in and out and although conditions are fine,it is 0w-2p-23r between October and April.
Tanit River ran well on its reappearance but may prefer softer ground while Mr Burgess makes its 2nd start for the Pipe yard,It only ran okay on its stable debut but may appreciate the shorter trip despite this,its another that makes the market for Tregaro.
Cant quite believe this horses price,its looked to be slowly running into form after a long break.
It has won here and is 5w-2p-15r during September and October.
Conditions are ideal and its 5Ibs below it last winning mark.
It will appear on the scene late and hopefully give us a good run for our money.
Back Tregaro 5pts at 17.0 at Betvictor-UP(-5pts)I expected more.
Football
Danish Superligaen(Friday)
Silkeborg v OB-Back Silkeborg 10pts at 7/4 at Marathon Bet-Drew 1-1(-10pts)Rubbish day(DT-24pts)
This horses form has gone up a level since it joined the Henry Oliver yard and I doubt the improvement has stopped yet.
Jockey James Davies has a 22% strike rate for this yard and interestingly,the stallion is an impressive 9 from 25 with its runners here.
Hadfield is lightly raced and can improve but needs too while Milrow has more on its plate here than the race it won last time.
Back Today Please 9pts at 5.5 at various bookies-3rd(-9pts)Hammered into 9/4 but one paced.
420 Uttoxeter-Some strange prices on show here and I expect some changes pre race.
Special Wells wants softer ground and has a poor record after an absence,so why its 2nd fav is beyond me.Strongly Suggested is very in and out and although conditions are fine,it is 0w-2p-23r between October and April.
Tanit River ran well on its reappearance but may prefer softer ground while Mr Burgess makes its 2nd start for the Pipe yard,It only ran okay on its stable debut but may appreciate the shorter trip despite this,its another that makes the market for Tregaro.
Cant quite believe this horses price,its looked to be slowly running into form after a long break.
It has won here and is 5w-2p-15r during September and October.
Conditions are ideal and its 5Ibs below it last winning mark.
It will appear on the scene late and hopefully give us a good run for our money.
Back Tregaro 5pts at 17.0 at Betvictor-UP(-5pts)I expected more.
Football
Danish Superligaen(Friday)
Silkeborg v OB-Back Silkeborg 10pts at 7/4 at Marathon Bet-Drew 1-1(-10pts)Rubbish day(DT-24pts)
27th October
310 Lingfield-Muffriha has a strong chance on my figures despite having no all weather form to its name.
However,its sire operates at a 21% strike rate here and this horse likes this time of year(Sept/Oct 3w-2p-10r).
The trainer continues in fine form and has a 24% strike rate and everything looks set for a big run.
Mise En Rose heads the dangers but has a tricky draw to contend with.
Back MuffriHa 12pts at 4.0 at 32Red & 888 sport-Won(+36pts) Smashed into 5/4 and hosed up
Monthly Total+57.75pts
Running Total+8725.72pts
However,its sire operates at a 21% strike rate here and this horse likes this time of year(Sept/Oct 3w-2p-10r).
The trainer continues in fine form and has a 24% strike rate and everything looks set for a big run.
Mise En Rose heads the dangers but has a tricky draw to contend with.
Back MuffriHa 12pts at 4.0 at 32Red & 888 sport-Won(+36pts) Smashed into 5/4 and hosed up
Monthly Total+57.75pts
Running Total+8725.72pts
26th October
915 Kempton-Although not proven at this track,Clever Bob ran well enough at Lingfield 2 starts back to suggest it should handle the surface okay and this horse stands out on my figures based on its latest 2nd placed finish last time out.
With the yard going well and a jockey I rate highly onboard,everything looks set for a big run.
Back Clever Bob 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-Non Runner
Football
Italy Serie A
Inter Milan v Torino-Back Torino Double Chance 16pts at 9/10 at 32Red-Lost 2-1
With the yard going well and a jockey I rate highly onboard,everything looks set for a big run.
Back Clever Bob 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-Non Runner
Football
Italy Serie A
Inter Milan v Torino-Back Torino Double Chance 16pts at 9/10 at 32Red-Lost 2-1
25th October
230 Chepstow-At their best,theres very little between Filatore and Istimraar on my figures but there are reasons to think that the former wont be at its best here.
For a start,it returns after 167 days off and it has a very patchy record when appearing after a break.
Its also 0w-1p-10r between October and December and finally 2 miles on good ground could be a tight enough trip for it here.Its best rating are on softer and over further.
That opens the door for Istimraar,who doesnt win very often but this is a big drop in class and its a pretty reliable animal to run its race.
Back Istimraar 14pts at 3.5 at Skybet/Betvictor/Paddys-2nd(-14pts)Ran really well and in front at the last.Sums up the current run as it just got run out of it.
Monthly Total+37.75pts
Running Total+8723.72pts
For a start,it returns after 167 days off and it has a very patchy record when appearing after a break.
Its also 0w-1p-10r between October and December and finally 2 miles on good ground could be a tight enough trip for it here.Its best rating are on softer and over further.
That opens the door for Istimraar,who doesnt win very often but this is a big drop in class and its a pretty reliable animal to run its race.
Back Istimraar 14pts at 3.5 at Skybet/Betvictor/Paddys-2nd(-14pts)Ran really well and in front at the last.Sums up the current run as it just got run out of it.
Monthly Total+37.75pts
Running Total+8723.72pts
24th October
Allsvenkhan
IFK Gothenburg v AIK Stockholm-Back AIK Stockholm 15pts(Draw No Bet) at Evens at Marathon Bet/Paddys-Lost 1-0(-15pts)On a poor run at present and the football was in particular,below average this week
IFK Gothenburg v AIK Stockholm-Back AIK Stockholm 15pts(Draw No Bet) at Evens at Marathon Bet/Paddys-Lost 1-0(-15pts)On a poor run at present and the football was in particular,below average this week
23rd October
No horseracing selections for Sunday,so just the football advised on Thursday
Serie A
Atlanta v Inter Milan-Back Atlanta 10pts(Draw No bet) at 6/4 at Paddys/Marathon Bet-Won 2-1(+15pts)
Swiss Superleague
Lausanne v Sion-Back Lausanne 12pts(Draw No bet) at 11/8 at Marathon Bet-Lost 3-0(-12pts)(DT+3pts)
Serie A
Atlanta v Inter Milan-Back Atlanta 10pts(Draw No bet) at 6/4 at Paddys/Marathon Bet-Won 2-1(+15pts)
Swiss Superleague
Lausanne v Sion-Back Lausanne 12pts(Draw No bet) at 11/8 at Marathon Bet-Lost 3-0(-12pts)(DT+3pts)
22nd October
300 Cheltenham-You have to respect Adrien Du Pont especially with its yard going so well at present but on pure figures and prices,Gibralfaro is the only horse I can back here.
Its first run back since being gelded saw it post a career best rating and if it can repeat that run here then it should be a big runner from a yard thats been consistently banging in the winners.
Back Gibralfaro 11pts at 4.5 at Paddys-UP(-11pts)Called the price correct again but this ran a very flat race.
FOOTBALL
Back Malmo-Brondby-Sturm Graz 10pts Treble(pays 2/1)-Lost(-10pts)
Premier League
Leicester v Crystal Palace-Back Crystal Palace 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 15/8 at Marathon Bet-Lost(-10pts)(DT-31pts)Poor day all round.
Its first run back since being gelded saw it post a career best rating and if it can repeat that run here then it should be a big runner from a yard thats been consistently banging in the winners.
Back Gibralfaro 11pts at 4.5 at Paddys-UP(-11pts)Called the price correct again but this ran a very flat race.
FOOTBALL
Back Malmo-Brondby-Sturm Graz 10pts Treble(pays 2/1)-Lost(-10pts)
Premier League
Leicester v Crystal Palace-Back Crystal Palace 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 15/8 at Marathon Bet-Lost(-10pts)(DT-31pts)Poor day all round.
21st October
520 Newbury-Syncopate won this race last year and could well have been teed up for a repeat bid here.
It drops back down into a class 5 for the first time since that win and this horse is at its best at this time of year(October/December 3w-3p-13r)
Jersey Jewel heads the dangers
Back Syncopate 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365-Won(+42pts)Backed into 3/1 and won nicely
FOOTBALL
Back Malmo-Brondby-Sturm Graz 10pts Treble(pays 2/1)
Allsvenkhan
IFK Gothernburg v AIK Stockholm-Back AIK Stockholm 15pts(Draw No Bet) at Evens at Marathon Bet/Paddys
Serie A
Atlanta v Inter Milan-Back Atlanta 10pts(Draw No bet) at 6/4 at Paddys/Marathon Bet
Swiss Superleague
Lausanne v Sion-Back Lausanne 12pts(Draw No bet) at 11/8 at Marathon Bet
Premier League
Leicester v Crystal Palace-Back Crystal Palace 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 15/8 at Marathon Bet
Monthly Total+97.75pts
Running Total+8765.72pts
It drops back down into a class 5 for the first time since that win and this horse is at its best at this time of year(October/December 3w-3p-13r)
Jersey Jewel heads the dangers
Back Syncopate 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365-Won(+42pts)Backed into 3/1 and won nicely
FOOTBALL
Back Malmo-Brondby-Sturm Graz 10pts Treble(pays 2/1)
Allsvenkhan
IFK Gothernburg v AIK Stockholm-Back AIK Stockholm 15pts(Draw No Bet) at Evens at Marathon Bet/Paddys
Serie A
Atlanta v Inter Milan-Back Atlanta 10pts(Draw No bet) at 6/4 at Paddys/Marathon Bet
Swiss Superleague
Lausanne v Sion-Back Lausanne 12pts(Draw No bet) at 11/8 at Marathon Bet
Premier League
Leicester v Crystal Palace-Back Crystal Palace 10pts(Draw No Bet) at 15/8 at Marathon Bet
Monthly Total+97.75pts
Running Total+8765.72pts
20th October
255 Newton Abbot-Since Generous Chief has joined the Graeme Mcpherson yard,hes managed to improve it by 20Ibs over hurdles,it now goes back over fences and if it can carry that progress into this sphere then that makes it a big runner here.
It cant win this on what its done so far over the larger obstacles but that was for a different yard.
All its wins have come going left handed like today,its 4w-3p-11r since being fitted with a visor and I would have it favourite.
Brave Encounter is the main danger after 2 good runs for its new yard while Tickapick looks like it needs softer ground.
Mount Prospex has one run to its name that gives it a shout but its very unreliable.
Whimsical Notion has to improve but is lightly raced over fences.
Back Generous Chief 15pts at 3.75 at Bet365/Betvictor-3rd(-15pts)Well backed but never travelled and didnt jump well enough.
It cant win this on what its done so far over the larger obstacles but that was for a different yard.
All its wins have come going left handed like today,its 4w-3p-11r since being fitted with a visor and I would have it favourite.
Brave Encounter is the main danger after 2 good runs for its new yard while Tickapick looks like it needs softer ground.
Mount Prospex has one run to its name that gives it a shout but its very unreliable.
Whimsical Notion has to improve but is lightly raced over fences.
Back Generous Chief 15pts at 3.75 at Bet365/Betvictor-3rd(-15pts)Well backed but never travelled and didnt jump well enough.
19th October
520 Newmarket-Bit of a surprise to see Up in Lights at the head of the market.
It was below par last time and is not at the top of my figures.
That honour goes to Hidden Rebel,who has been in decent form for most of the season.
It went close in a similar contest last time and is 4w-4p-12r in fields of 9 or less.
Sharaakah heads the dangers with conditions ideal.
Back Hidden Rebel 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Horse wasnt interested.In a bad mood throughout.
Monthly Total+70.75pts
Running Total+8738.72pts
It was below par last time and is not at the top of my figures.
That honour goes to Hidden Rebel,who has been in decent form for most of the season.
It went close in a similar contest last time and is 4w-4p-12r in fields of 9 or less.
Sharaakah heads the dangers with conditions ideal.
Back Hidden Rebel 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Horse wasnt interested.In a bad mood throughout.
Monthly Total+70.75pts
Running Total+8738.72pts
17th October
Another winner on the football today to keep us ticking over while we need IFK Goteburg to get the treble up 6pm kick off(Monday)
None of the horses catch my eye,so just the football again
Back AIK Stockholm(Won 2-0)-Gothernburg(Drew 3-3)-Sturm Graz(Won 1-0) 10pts Treble(Pays 7/4)-Lost(-10pts)A red card and a goal 30 seconds from time ruined the treble.
None of the horses catch my eye,so just the football again
Back AIK Stockholm(Won 2-0)-Gothernburg(Drew 3-3)-Sturm Graz(Won 1-0) 10pts Treble(Pays 7/4)-Lost(-10pts)A red card and a goal 30 seconds from time ruined the treble.
16th October
Nothing from me on the horses,so just the football advised the other day.
FC Midtjylland v Aalborg-Back FC Midtjylland to win 20pts at 4/5 at Marathon Bet-Won 2-0(+16pts)
Back AIK Stockholm(Won 2-0)-Gothernburg-Sturm Graz(Won 1-0) 10pts Treble(Pays 7/4)
Monthly Total+90.75pts
Running Total+8758.72pts
FC Midtjylland v Aalborg-Back FC Midtjylland to win 20pts at 4/5 at Marathon Bet-Won 2-0(+16pts)
Back AIK Stockholm(Won 2-0)-Gothernburg-Sturm Graz(Won 1-0) 10pts Treble(Pays 7/4)
Monthly Total+90.75pts
Running Total+8758.72pts
15th October
350 Stratford-This race is there for the taking in my opinion.
Vivas is a fair favourite but is still yet to win and this is a rise in class.
Lostock Hall makes its handicap debut and has good looking form figures but its ratings have actually declined and it makes no appeal at the head of the market.
Doubts surround many of the others but at a big price,I feel Lord Ben could go well.
This is only its third run for this stable and it ran well 2 starts back over hurdles before being outclassed over fences last time out.
Its ratings are right there with the best of these and it has to be backed at the prices.
Back Lord Ben 5pts at 13.0 at Various Bookies-4th(-5pts)Chased a ferocious pace and was legless by the end.
420 Stratford-It does have an in and out profile but if it has a going day then Is Love Alive should go very close here.
The rating it posted last time out puts it clear of this field and interestingly,this small stable do well at this track(5 wins from 22 runners.£105 profit to a £1 level stake)
Little Windmill won well last time and will like the conditions but has it to do if the selection runs its race while Daulys Anthem has a chance on its run three starts back over course and distance.
Back Love Is Alive 8pts at 6.5 at Bet365-UP(-8pts)I doubt this has run within 20Ibs of its last effort.
Angus Glens stands out for me in the 240 at Stratford,if you fancy backing a shorty.
Thun v Lausanne-Back Lausanne(Draw No bet) 15pts at 23/18 at Marathon Bet-Lost 1-0(-15pts)Missed a penalty and then had a player harshly sent off(DT-28pts)
Vivas is a fair favourite but is still yet to win and this is a rise in class.
Lostock Hall makes its handicap debut and has good looking form figures but its ratings have actually declined and it makes no appeal at the head of the market.
Doubts surround many of the others but at a big price,I feel Lord Ben could go well.
This is only its third run for this stable and it ran well 2 starts back over hurdles before being outclassed over fences last time out.
Its ratings are right there with the best of these and it has to be backed at the prices.
Back Lord Ben 5pts at 13.0 at Various Bookies-4th(-5pts)Chased a ferocious pace and was legless by the end.
420 Stratford-It does have an in and out profile but if it has a going day then Is Love Alive should go very close here.
The rating it posted last time out puts it clear of this field and interestingly,this small stable do well at this track(5 wins from 22 runners.£105 profit to a £1 level stake)
Little Windmill won well last time and will like the conditions but has it to do if the selection runs its race while Daulys Anthem has a chance on its run three starts back over course and distance.
Back Love Is Alive 8pts at 6.5 at Bet365-UP(-8pts)I doubt this has run within 20Ibs of its last effort.
Angus Glens stands out for me in the 240 at Stratford,if you fancy backing a shorty.
Thun v Lausanne-Back Lausanne(Draw No bet) 15pts at 23/18 at Marathon Bet-Lost 1-0(-15pts)Missed a penalty and then had a player harshly sent off(DT-28pts)
14th October
425 Fakenham-This is a decent race and interests me as half the field have to prove themselves over this trip.
Workbench is always a useful tool during the Autumn but appears much better over shorter while Keltius is pretty consistent but so far,has better ratings at a shorter trip.
Wadswick Court drops in grade and has the ratings to figure but all at shorter and is another who has to prove itself over this distance.
Wiesentraum won this race in 2013 and 2014 but hasnt been seen since running terribly in this race last year.Its got an in and out record fresh and just has too many question marks for me but a good run wouldnt be a total surprise.
At a fair price,Princeton Royale appeals most as the value option.
Its only had 4 runs over fences but all of those were at shorter,considering its got 3 wins over hurdles over todays trip,you would imagine it would improve for the extra distance.
This is a drop in grade for it and its slightly below par run last time can be excused as its far better going left handed(5w-1p-15r) compared to 0w-0p-5r right handed.
Back Princeton Royale 7pts at 7.0 at Betfred/Totesport/Betfair-2nd(-7pts)Halved in price and ran a great race.Another placed horse is fairly frustrating.
Weekend Football(Danish Superleague)
Sonderjyske v Vborg-Back Sonderjyske to win 15pts at 11/10 at various bookies-Won 1-0(+16.5pts)(DT+9.5pts)
Monthly Total+104.75pts
Running Total+8772.72pts
Workbench is always a useful tool during the Autumn but appears much better over shorter while Keltius is pretty consistent but so far,has better ratings at a shorter trip.
Wadswick Court drops in grade and has the ratings to figure but all at shorter and is another who has to prove itself over this distance.
Wiesentraum won this race in 2013 and 2014 but hasnt been seen since running terribly in this race last year.Its got an in and out record fresh and just has too many question marks for me but a good run wouldnt be a total surprise.
At a fair price,Princeton Royale appeals most as the value option.
Its only had 4 runs over fences but all of those were at shorter,considering its got 3 wins over hurdles over todays trip,you would imagine it would improve for the extra distance.
This is a drop in grade for it and its slightly below par run last time can be excused as its far better going left handed(5w-1p-15r) compared to 0w-0p-5r right handed.
Back Princeton Royale 7pts at 7.0 at Betfred/Totesport/Betfair-2nd(-7pts)Halved in price and ran a great race.Another placed horse is fairly frustrating.
Weekend Football(Danish Superleague)
Sonderjyske v Vborg-Back Sonderjyske to win 15pts at 11/10 at various bookies-Won 1-0(+16.5pts)(DT+9.5pts)
Monthly Total+104.75pts
Running Total+8772.72pts
13th October
255 Uttoxeter-Probably a bit outside the box but there are reasons that St Quintin could run far better than the odds suggest.
It ran 3 nice races last Autumn before completely losing its way.Any of those ratings posted on those runs,give it an outstanding chance in this weak event.
The reason for optimism that it may bounce back is that its been given a nice break of 101 days and its since changed yards.It may not be ready and it may have gone at the game but i dont mind finding out at double figure odds.
Barton Rose has a good chance on its latest effort but its short enough for a horse that is 0w-0p-5r at this track.
Back St Quintin 5pts at 12.0 at bet365-Pulled UP(-5pts)Horse has completely gone it would appear!
Weekend Football(Danish Superleague)
Sonderjyske v Vborg-Back Sonderjyske to win 15pts at 11/10 at various bookies
FC Midtjylland v Aalborg-Back FC Midtjylland to win 20pts at 4/5 at Marathon Bet
(Swiss Super League)
Thun v Lausanne-Back Lausanne(Draw No bet) 15pts at 23/18 at Marathon Bet
Back AIK Stockholm-Gothernburg-Sturm Graz 10pts Treble(Pays 7/4)
It ran 3 nice races last Autumn before completely losing its way.Any of those ratings posted on those runs,give it an outstanding chance in this weak event.
The reason for optimism that it may bounce back is that its been given a nice break of 101 days and its since changed yards.It may not be ready and it may have gone at the game but i dont mind finding out at double figure odds.
Barton Rose has a good chance on its latest effort but its short enough for a horse that is 0w-0p-5r at this track.
Back St Quintin 5pts at 12.0 at bet365-Pulled UP(-5pts)Horse has completely gone it would appear!
Weekend Football(Danish Superleague)
Sonderjyske v Vborg-Back Sonderjyske to win 15pts at 11/10 at various bookies
FC Midtjylland v Aalborg-Back FC Midtjylland to win 20pts at 4/5 at Marathon Bet
(Swiss Super League)
Thun v Lausanne-Back Lausanne(Draw No bet) 15pts at 23/18 at Marathon Bet
Back AIK Stockholm-Gothernburg-Sturm Graz 10pts Treble(Pays 7/4)
12th October
400 Wetherby-Phillip Hobbs won this race last year and looks to have a good chance again with Art Of Logistics.
This horse has been running well and these conditions are ideal for it.
I like its profile with 3 wins from 4 starts during October and a good record of 5w-0p-12r when returning to the track within 40 days like today.
Id have it a much shorter price than it is.
The money has come for The Grey Taylor and although its got a bit to find on my figures,you have to respect a record of 2w-1p-4r around this track.
Lord Wishes returns after a little break and it can go well fresh plus its won around here but I just wonder if it wants softer ground.
Back Art Of Logistics 10pts at 5.0 at Various bookies-4th(-10pts)Had every chance but too many sloppy jumps cost it.
505 Wetherby-Considering there are question marks about so many here,im surprised to see Domtaline trading at double figure odds.
Its been in good form and likes this time of year(Sept/Oct 3w-1p-8r).The ground is ideal and it should be able to creep into this off a likely strong pace.Its got the ratings to go very close.
Ulis De Vassey is inconsistent and is now 12Ibs higher than its win 2 starts back,its also left the Dan Skelton yard and that cannot be a positive.
Monbeg River returns after an absence,it can go well fresh but has also underperformed in the past,this ground looks quick enough for it though.
Helium looks a threat after a recent pipe opener on the flat,the trainer is 2 from 3 with her chasers here and the horse is 5w-3p-15r from October to December.
Trust Thomas finished last season in good style but its record first time out is awful(28Ibs below its average) and I cant see it being there at the finish while Attimo has questions to answer on ground,trip and fitness.
Back Domtaline 5pts at 11.0 at Corals-3rd(-5pts)Money for it but another that was hampered by some poor jumps at crucial stages.(DT-15pts)
Monthly Total+100.25pts
Running Total+8768.22pts
This horse has been running well and these conditions are ideal for it.
I like its profile with 3 wins from 4 starts during October and a good record of 5w-0p-12r when returning to the track within 40 days like today.
Id have it a much shorter price than it is.
The money has come for The Grey Taylor and although its got a bit to find on my figures,you have to respect a record of 2w-1p-4r around this track.
Lord Wishes returns after a little break and it can go well fresh plus its won around here but I just wonder if it wants softer ground.
Back Art Of Logistics 10pts at 5.0 at Various bookies-4th(-10pts)Had every chance but too many sloppy jumps cost it.
505 Wetherby-Considering there are question marks about so many here,im surprised to see Domtaline trading at double figure odds.
Its been in good form and likes this time of year(Sept/Oct 3w-1p-8r).The ground is ideal and it should be able to creep into this off a likely strong pace.Its got the ratings to go very close.
Ulis De Vassey is inconsistent and is now 12Ibs higher than its win 2 starts back,its also left the Dan Skelton yard and that cannot be a positive.
Monbeg River returns after an absence,it can go well fresh but has also underperformed in the past,this ground looks quick enough for it though.
Helium looks a threat after a recent pipe opener on the flat,the trainer is 2 from 3 with her chasers here and the horse is 5w-3p-15r from October to December.
Trust Thomas finished last season in good style but its record first time out is awful(28Ibs below its average) and I cant see it being there at the finish while Attimo has questions to answer on ground,trip and fitness.
Back Domtaline 5pts at 11.0 at Corals-3rd(-5pts)Money for it but another that was hampered by some poor jumps at crucial stages.(DT-15pts)
Monthly Total+100.25pts
Running Total+8768.22pts
11th October
250 Musselburgh-Kelvin Hall stands out on my figures here and its possible Joe Fanning could get away from them around here & hang on as this horse can sometimes finish a little tamely.
Its raced mainly on good or good to soft ground so this faster ground is an unknown but the sire has plenty of offspring that have done well on the ground,so im not concerned on that front.
The trainer has a 20% strike rate here and I would have it clear favourite.
Canny Style has won its last two,over slightly further and on softer ground.Those wins need to be improved upon and on its ratings over this trip and ground then this horse has work to do.
Amy Blair steps up in trip but is in good form while Meddlesome is lightly raced for a yard that do very well here.It needs to take a big jump forward on what its done so far but thats not impossible.
Back Kelvin Hall 11pts at 5.0 at Bet365/Betfred/Totesport-2nd(-11pts)Once again we got the value as it got punted into 9/4 but just got ran out of it.
550 Leicester-This step up in trip looks ideal for Al Nasser Alwashik,whos been finishing well over shorter.Its ratings over a mile give it a fine chance and anything around that level over this trip,would make it tough to beat.
Artists Model has finished 1st and 3rd on its 2 starts here and rates the biggest danger.
Back Al Nasser Alwashik 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-Won(+48pts Paid out BOG)Fine ride by De Sousa saving every inch and dug deep to prevail(DT+37pts)
Month Total+115.25pts
Runing Total+8783.22pts
Its raced mainly on good or good to soft ground so this faster ground is an unknown but the sire has plenty of offspring that have done well on the ground,so im not concerned on that front.
The trainer has a 20% strike rate here and I would have it clear favourite.
Canny Style has won its last two,over slightly further and on softer ground.Those wins need to be improved upon and on its ratings over this trip and ground then this horse has work to do.
Amy Blair steps up in trip but is in good form while Meddlesome is lightly raced for a yard that do very well here.It needs to take a big jump forward on what its done so far but thats not impossible.
Back Kelvin Hall 11pts at 5.0 at Bet365/Betfred/Totesport-2nd(-11pts)Once again we got the value as it got punted into 9/4 but just got ran out of it.
550 Leicester-This step up in trip looks ideal for Al Nasser Alwashik,whos been finishing well over shorter.Its ratings over a mile give it a fine chance and anything around that level over this trip,would make it tough to beat.
Artists Model has finished 1st and 3rd on its 2 starts here and rates the biggest danger.
Back Al Nasser Alwashik 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-Won(+48pts Paid out BOG)Fine ride by De Sousa saving every inch and dug deep to prevail(DT+37pts)
Month Total+115.25pts
Runing Total+8783.22pts
10th October
Tyrell has a fair chance(5.00 Windsor) but the price looks right to me,so its another no bet day for me.
I just wont put up selections for the sake of it,id prefer to wait for the opportunity to get involved rather than forcing it.
I just wont put up selections for the sake of it,id prefer to wait for the opportunity to get involved rather than forcing it.
8th October
350 Chepstow-I know this is only 2 days after this horse won for us and its a rise in class but I cant let this horse go unbacked at the current odds.
Its ratings are very progressive and its speed figure it posted on Thursday means its not out of place in this company.
It may come too soon but if it doesnt then its a crazy price.
Diego Du Charmil heads the dangers
Back Furiously Fast 5pts at 17.0 at Bet365/Betfred/Hills-2nd(-5pts)A tremendous run again! Punted into 4/1 and led everywhere but the last 10 strides.
235 York-Its possible that Great Order could be different class to these ,as its posted some improving figures at shorter and will appreciate this extra distance but the market has it short enough.
The value for me,lies with Central Square,whos progressive itself and boasts rock solid handicap form ,in this class and at this trip.
Its produced a career best last time,in first time blinkers and if that run is repeated then its a big player here.
Cote D`Azur is very consistent and wont be far away.
Back Central Square 6pts at 7.0 at Betvictor/Paddys-3rd(-6pts)Never given a chance to win unfortunately.Slow out the stalls,stayed at the back then plugged through for 3rd.(DT-11pts)
Monthly Total+78.25pts
Running Total+8746.22pts
Its ratings are very progressive and its speed figure it posted on Thursday means its not out of place in this company.
It may come too soon but if it doesnt then its a crazy price.
Diego Du Charmil heads the dangers
Back Furiously Fast 5pts at 17.0 at Bet365/Betfred/Hills-2nd(-5pts)A tremendous run again! Punted into 4/1 and led everywhere but the last 10 strides.
235 York-Its possible that Great Order could be different class to these ,as its posted some improving figures at shorter and will appreciate this extra distance but the market has it short enough.
The value for me,lies with Central Square,whos progressive itself and boasts rock solid handicap form ,in this class and at this trip.
Its produced a career best last time,in first time blinkers and if that run is repeated then its a big player here.
Cote D`Azur is very consistent and wont be far away.
Back Central Square 6pts at 7.0 at Betvictor/Paddys-3rd(-6pts)Never given a chance to win unfortunately.Slow out the stalls,stayed at the back then plugged through for 3rd.(DT-11pts)
Monthly Total+78.25pts
Running Total+8746.22pts
6th October
330 Exeter-Theres no doubt that Pawn Star has a decent chance here but the market is telling you that and the value lies with On The Bridge.
This hore takes a drop in class and looks to be gradually running into form.
Its got a better chance on my figures than the odds suggest and its 3w-0p-5r going right handed.
Houston Dinamo holds chances on its most recent run but is 0w-0p-3r around this track.
The Wealerdealer has won around here and is in decent form but is needs to step up on previous chase efforts.
Back On The Bridge 7pts at 8.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Support for it but ran a poor race.
340 Hereford-If its latest run in novice company can be relied upon then Furiously Fast is a big price here.Its shown steady improvement in each of its run and on its most recent start,it finished 23 lengths clear of a horse that went on to win next time out.
The speed figure posted that day backs up the good rating and on its handicap debut,this horse cant go unbacked at the available prices.
Collodi has been in great form over flat and jumps and warrants respect but its short enough in my view while Satanic Beat drops in grade and shouldnt be far away.
Octagon returns after an absence but for a new yard that do well with new recruits.
So far though,its best runs have been over further and on slower ground.
Back Furiously Fast 5pts at 12.0 at Betway/skybet-Won(+46.5pts*Rule 4)Well punted into 4/1 and won very nicely(DT+39.5pts)
Monthly Total+89.25pts
Running Total+8757.72pts
This hore takes a drop in class and looks to be gradually running into form.
Its got a better chance on my figures than the odds suggest and its 3w-0p-5r going right handed.
Houston Dinamo holds chances on its most recent run but is 0w-0p-3r around this track.
The Wealerdealer has won around here and is in decent form but is needs to step up on previous chase efforts.
Back On The Bridge 7pts at 8.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Support for it but ran a poor race.
340 Hereford-If its latest run in novice company can be relied upon then Furiously Fast is a big price here.Its shown steady improvement in each of its run and on its most recent start,it finished 23 lengths clear of a horse that went on to win next time out.
The speed figure posted that day backs up the good rating and on its handicap debut,this horse cant go unbacked at the available prices.
Collodi has been in great form over flat and jumps and warrants respect but its short enough in my view while Satanic Beat drops in grade and shouldnt be far away.
Octagon returns after an absence but for a new yard that do well with new recruits.
So far though,its best runs have been over further and on slower ground.
Back Furiously Fast 5pts at 12.0 at Betway/skybet-Won(+46.5pts*Rule 4)Well punted into 4/1 and won very nicely(DT+39.5pts)
Monthly Total+89.25pts
Running Total+8757.72pts
5th October
340 Ludlow-Ive looked at this race long and hard and I still cant work why Lilywhite Gesture is the outsider of this field.
I can see its slightly out of the handicap and that isnt ideal but my ratings suggest this horse has a decent chance here and they are clear holes to be picked in the others.
Whereas the selection is in form and fit,the likes of Morning Herald not only return from 155 days off but also has to prove it stays this trip.
Miss Mobot turns out quickly under a penalty and this is its handicap debut but on my figures,its up against it off this mark.
The one that looks the danger to me is Nordic Nymph,who has the ratings from early on in 2015 to take this but it hasnt raced for over 600 days and this ground will be quick enough.
Back Lilywhite Gesture 7pts at 9.0 at Various bookies-4th(-7pts)Punted heavily into 2/1.Very underwhelmed with the run.Never got into it.
I like Spring Steel in the 320 at Towcester but the price just isnt quite big enough to get involved.
Monthly Total+49.75pts
Running Total+8717.72pts
I can see its slightly out of the handicap and that isnt ideal but my ratings suggest this horse has a decent chance here and they are clear holes to be picked in the others.
Whereas the selection is in form and fit,the likes of Morning Herald not only return from 155 days off but also has to prove it stays this trip.
Miss Mobot turns out quickly under a penalty and this is its handicap debut but on my figures,its up against it off this mark.
The one that looks the danger to me is Nordic Nymph,who has the ratings from early on in 2015 to take this but it hasnt raced for over 600 days and this ground will be quick enough.
Back Lilywhite Gesture 7pts at 9.0 at Various bookies-4th(-7pts)Punted heavily into 2/1.Very underwhelmed with the run.Never got into it.
I like Spring Steel in the 320 at Towcester but the price just isnt quite big enough to get involved.
Monthly Total+49.75pts
Running Total+8717.72pts
3rd October
The 3.00 at Pontefract is an interesting and looks to lie between Blair House and Rainbow Rebel but the prices seem right to me and its a no bet day.
2nd October
505 Kelso-Catchthemoonlight has been running well and should so again,im sure it wont be far away and has to rate a danger despite 0 wins from 18 starts.
Ange Des Marlberaux is carrying a big weight and although holding a fair chance,I couldnt have it as favourite.
Definitely Glad and Gunner Lindley are both in decent form but are a combined 0/46 in their careers.
The one i like at a price is Italian Riviera,who makes its stable debut for Kenneth Slack.
Its got a good chance on its best ratings from when it raced in Ireland and the trainer is a very impressive 3w-1p-6r with his runners at this track.
Back Italian Riviera 7pts at 8.0 at Betfred/Totesport-Won(+49pts)Backed off the boards into 2/1 and won a little cosily.
(Sweden Allsvenkan)
Djurgaarden v Orebro
Back Djurgaarden 25pts at 1.77 at Marathon Bet-Won(19.25pts)(DT+68.25pts)
Monthly Total+56.75pts
Running Total+8724.72pts
Ange Des Marlberaux is carrying a big weight and although holding a fair chance,I couldnt have it as favourite.
Definitely Glad and Gunner Lindley are both in decent form but are a combined 0/46 in their careers.
The one i like at a price is Italian Riviera,who makes its stable debut for Kenneth Slack.
Its got a good chance on its best ratings from when it raced in Ireland and the trainer is a very impressive 3w-1p-6r with his runners at this track.
Back Italian Riviera 7pts at 8.0 at Betfred/Totesport-Won(+49pts)Backed off the boards into 2/1 and won a little cosily.
(Sweden Allsvenkan)
Djurgaarden v Orebro
Back Djurgaarden 25pts at 1.77 at Marathon Bet-Won(19.25pts)(DT+68.25pts)
Monthly Total+56.75pts
Running Total+8724.72pts
1st October
240 Redcar-Nonchalant is the obvious one here but a record of 1 win from 27 starts including not even managing a place from 9 goes at this trip means I feel we can take it on.
That is with Miningrocks,who ran a shocker last time out over further on the all weather.
Thats not the first time its ran poorly on an artificial surface and combined with the trip being a bit far,hopefully it can put that behind it here and really give it a good go from the front.
Its 3 wins from 5 starts over this trip and with only Ronya being the other obvious pace angle,it could get away from them and its not easy to make up ground around here.
Back Miningrocks 13pts at 3.75 at Hills-2nd(-13pts)Led everywhere but the last 10 yards.
910 Wolverhampton-A couple of things interest me here in this very low grade event.
Mick Channon(for whatever reason) has a good record in this race,hes only had 3 runners in this in the past and they`ve finished 1st-2nd-1st and is represented here by The Greedy Boy.
Maybe for that reason its significant that champion jockey De Sousa hangs around for the last race of the day,for a class 6 event on a saturday evening?
This horse has a fair chance on bare ratings but should prove better suited by the extra distance here.
Just Fred is the obvious danger.
Back The Greedy Boy 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies-UP(-14pts)
Football
Hacken v Malmo
Back Malmo(draw no bet) 15pts at 11/10 at Paddys-Won 4-2(+16.5pts)(DT-11.5pts)
That is with Miningrocks,who ran a shocker last time out over further on the all weather.
Thats not the first time its ran poorly on an artificial surface and combined with the trip being a bit far,hopefully it can put that behind it here and really give it a good go from the front.
Its 3 wins from 5 starts over this trip and with only Ronya being the other obvious pace angle,it could get away from them and its not easy to make up ground around here.
Back Miningrocks 13pts at 3.75 at Hills-2nd(-13pts)Led everywhere but the last 10 yards.
910 Wolverhampton-A couple of things interest me here in this very low grade event.
Mick Channon(for whatever reason) has a good record in this race,hes only had 3 runners in this in the past and they`ve finished 1st-2nd-1st and is represented here by The Greedy Boy.
Maybe for that reason its significant that champion jockey De Sousa hangs around for the last race of the day,for a class 6 event on a saturday evening?
This horse has a fair chance on bare ratings but should prove better suited by the extra distance here.
Just Fred is the obvious danger.
Back The Greedy Boy 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies-UP(-14pts)
Football
Hacken v Malmo
Back Malmo(draw no bet) 15pts at 11/10 at Paddys-Won 4-2(+16.5pts)(DT-11.5pts)
30th September
400 Fontwell-I like the claims of the lightly raced Theatre Flame here.
This horse faces many horses with questions to answer and I would have it clear favourite.
Its produced 2 good runs over fences so far and a repeat or better would make it tough to beat.
Workbench has won this race the last 2 years and is probably the main danger but doesnt come into it in the same form and is still 4Ibs higher than last years win.
Notarfbad looks handicapped up to the hilt now while Lord Ben is pretty unreliable.
Puple n`Gold has lost its way and Ravens Tower has chances on last seasons form but hasnt got near that level in 2 runs this season.
Back Theatre Flame 13pts at 4.0 at Bet365/Betvictor-UP(-13pts)Weak in the market and went out like a light.
Football(Advised Wednesday)
Helsingborg v Hammarby
Back Hammarby(draw no bet) 15pts at 5/6 at 32Red/Bwin/Bet365-Won 1-0(+12.5)(DT-0.5pts)
Monthly Total-13pts
Running Total+8643.47pts
This horse faces many horses with questions to answer and I would have it clear favourite.
Its produced 2 good runs over fences so far and a repeat or better would make it tough to beat.
Workbench has won this race the last 2 years and is probably the main danger but doesnt come into it in the same form and is still 4Ibs higher than last years win.
Notarfbad looks handicapped up to the hilt now while Lord Ben is pretty unreliable.
Puple n`Gold has lost its way and Ravens Tower has chances on last seasons form but hasnt got near that level in 2 runs this season.
Back Theatre Flame 13pts at 4.0 at Bet365/Betvictor-UP(-13pts)Weak in the market and went out like a light.
Football(Advised Wednesday)
Helsingborg v Hammarby
Back Hammarby(draw no bet) 15pts at 5/6 at 32Red/Bwin/Bet365-Won 1-0(+12.5)(DT-0.5pts)
Monthly Total-13pts
Running Total+8643.47pts
29th September
Daisy Boy half caught my eye in the 430 at Brighton but rain is a worry and i wanted bigger than 11/2
Football(Sunday)
(Sweden Allsvenkan)
Djurgaarden v Orebro
Back Djurgaarden 25pts at 1.77 at Marathon Bet
(Friday)
Helsingborg v Hammarby
Back Hammarby(draw no bet) 15pts at 5/6 at 32Red/Bwin/Bet365
(Saturday)
Hacken v Malmo
Back Malmo(draw no bet) 15pts at 11/10 at Paddys
Football(Sunday)
(Sweden Allsvenkan)
Djurgaarden v Orebro
Back Djurgaarden 25pts at 1.77 at Marathon Bet
(Friday)
Helsingborg v Hammarby
Back Hammarby(draw no bet) 15pts at 5/6 at 32Red/Bwin/Bet365
(Saturday)
Hacken v Malmo
Back Malmo(draw no bet) 15pts at 11/10 at Paddys
27th September
330 Southwell-Its possible Doitforjoe could improve for the step into handicaps but its short enough for me while Kamool has a consistent profile and isnt without a chance but the overpriced one for me is Love the Leader,who came back to some sort of form last time when posting the best rating in this race and was also badly hampered in doing so.
Its 4w-0p-6r during September/October and is 3w-0p-6r when returning to the track within 14 days.
The booking of a claimer to take some weight is also an interesting move.
Perfect Summer is 2w-1p-4r in this grade but does have to prove its stamina while Very Extravagant returns from an absence but hails from a yard going very well at present.
Back Love The Leader 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365-UP(-7pts)Hurdled poorly and that stop it getting involved.Finishing the month poorly.
Its 4w-0p-6r during September/October and is 3w-0p-6r when returning to the track within 14 days.
The booking of a claimer to take some weight is also an interesting move.
Perfect Summer is 2w-1p-4r in this grade but does have to prove its stamina while Very Extravagant returns from an absence but hails from a yard going very well at present.
Back Love The Leader 7pts at 7.0 at Bet365-UP(-7pts)Hurdled poorly and that stop it getting involved.Finishing the month poorly.
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