Any questions etc then please Email me at GARYBALDYSCOTT@AOL.COM Selections up by 9am...Tips advised from 1 to 30 pts.
27th February
320 Bangor-Looks Just about a 2 horse race to me.The improving Herdsman is fav and probably has more to come but it needs to,to match the ratings of the consistent Corrin Wood.This horse is by no means exposed with just 5 hurdle runs and only 1 in an handicap,it must run well.
Back Corrin Wood 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365(Accept 4.3)-2nd(-12pts)Looked good but just ran out of it
350 Bangor-Only 6 runners but all of them have some sort of chance.Milo Milan is top rated and unexposed over todays distance of 3miles(1win-1place-2runs) while Morning Moment came back to form last time.Double Dash is improving and consistent and if on a going day,Mark the Brook wont be far away.Storm Survivor has a chance but no more than that and I certainly couldnt have it at its current pric
Lay Storm Survivor 30pts at 5.0-Won(-120pts)lst lay to win for a while,with quite a few underperforming(DT-132pts)
330 Wincanton-A few unexposed horses and they may improve past the tough Home Run but im happy to side with it at the prices.Top rated and at its best when returning to the track within 14 days(4wins-1place-7runs) and 1/1 at this track,it will make them all go.Suerte Al Salto looks the main danger to me.Im not sure the drop to 2m will suit Xaarcet while Islandmagee has to improve.
Back Home Run 12pts at 4.5(Accept 4.3)-Fell(-12pts)To complete the first real bad day in a while,this looked the winner to me when overjumping and unseating its rider.(DT-144pts)
Monthly Total+328.18pts
Running Total+5097.51pts
26th February
330 Leicester-If it wasnt for this horses profile,Id be very confident of it winning from a ratings point of view.Richo is clear top rated but a win record of 1/46 has to raise concerns.On the plus side,its only had 2 runs over fences and if repeating either of those,it should go very close.The opposition is pretty weak with just the unexposed Hoare Abbey and Persian Herald looking to hold much potential while the consistent Sawpit Supreme should run its race.
Back Richo 8pts at 7.4-UP(-8pts)This horse is a poor jumper and I doubt I will let it draw me in again.
Monthly Total+472.18pts
Running Total+5241.51pts
25th February
310 Plumpton-Not many can be really fancied and I like the chances of Tornado in Milan as long as it doesnt pull its chance away.Posted 2 good ratings in both its runs in handicap company and looks to hold a good chance.Star of Massini is probably the main danger as a fairly unexposed hurdler while Just Beware has the ratings to run well but is a very exposed animal.The one worry for me is Brody Bleu who is impossible to assess accurately.
Back Tornado in Milan 10pts at 5.2-Won(Wasnt Matched)Cannot believe I didnt get matched on this as it was so close when I sent it out.Will have to have a rethink because there was plenty of 5.0 about last night.
24th February
325 Towcester-I may be way off the mark with this horse but the price is so big,I cannot ignore it.Handsome Buddy has only had 1 run over fences,in which it achieved a good rating(in the context of this race) over a shorter trip.There is obviously a doubt about the step up in trip but the fact that its so unexposed and also posted an excellent speed rating also today steps into handicap company for the first time,im happy to bet it.Speedy Bruere is also unexposed but does have to step up while Pensnett Bay is 2/2 at this track and must be respected but is 0wins-1place-5runs after a break of 80 days or more.
Back Handsome Buddy 5pts at 34.0 at Ladbrokes(Accept 17.0)-UP(-5pts)Market Mover into 8.5! Travelled strongly until hampered by loose horse about 4 out and one pace after(Hit 4.2 in running)
Monthly Total+480.18pts
Running Total+5249.51pts
23rd February
130 Kempton-This is wide open and im hoping the return to good ground will bring out a return to the top ratings from last year of Triangular.It ran a decent race last time on soft ground but its record on good of 2wins-1place-3runs gives encouragement of better.
Back Triangular 6pts at 12.0(Accept 10.0)-4th(-6pts)Weak in the market,Held up and five wide throughout before late headway,I dont think this was expected today!
340 Lingfield-Big Sylv looks to hold a strong hand here,its posted progressive ratings this season and although not proven at this track,it should go well.Chambles looks the main danger.
Back Big Sylv 20pts at 3.0-2nd(Wasnt Matched) Hoped for a drift on this but got more solid,really should have won in my opinion.
355 Chepstow-I like Shammick Boy here,nicely progressive of late and posted a good topspeed figure latest.In the month of February its 1w-2p-3r and when returning to the track after 28 days or less its 2w-0p-3r.Everything looks set for a good run.Whitby Jack looks the danger returning to 2miles.
Back Shammick Boy 12pts at 4.0 at Betvictor-Won(+36pts)Travelled well and stayed on strong(DT+30pts)
Monthly Total+485.18pts
Running Total+5254.51pts
22nd February
430 Sandown-Decent race and a few with chances.Plein Pouvoir will do for many with McCoy riding for an in form yard but my ratings say its better at 2m5 rather than todays 3m.Barlow is progressing and will run well while Imperial Circus(R/H 2w-1p-5r) will fare better this way round but I like the progressive Ringa Bay,top rated and a record over 3miles of 2w-1p-3r.
Back Ringa Bay 7pts at 8.0(Accept 7.6)-UP(-7pts)Poor below par run
220 Sandown-Nozic won well last time but my ratings suggest it has a much tougher task this time and will need to improve again but this horse is 12yo,there cannot be much left surely.I also feel its better on softer ground,on todays good to soft going or faster its has a record of 0w-0p-8r.There are plenty in with a chance,Keki Buku has run well after a big break before and is 3w-2p-7r going right handed,Lord Singer put up a good rating last time while Olympian Boy did the same.The one that interests me the most is Sunny Ledgend,its only had 2 runs over fences but over much further although its top rated on those,if it can handle the drop in trip,it will go close.
Lay Nozic 30pts at 4.0(Lay up to 4.5)-UP(+30pts)
450 Warwick-Upham Atom starts winning in February,every year its the same,so to have it put up a top rated performance on its last run in January,should mean its ready to strike again,I have a slight query about it going left handed but the price is generous enough to allow for that.Flying Award is a pretty consistent horse and looks the main danger.
Back Upham Atom 13pts at 6.0(Accept 4.5)-4th(-13pts)(DT+12pts)
Days total minus commission+11.4pts
Days total minus commission+11.4pts
Monthly Total+455.18pts
Running Total+5224.51pts
21st February
250 Ayr-May be that Makhzoon is out of form but 3m1 in very soft ground last time may have been a far enough trip.Im continually drawn to its form around todays trip.Its ran 3 times over 2m5-2m6 and won all of them and its 2wins-1place-4runs in this class of race.Its an inconsistent horse but the price more than compensates for that.Merrydown and particularly Spirit of a Nation are the dangers.
Back Makhzoon 6pts at 10.0-3rd(-6pts)Ran a really good race and just got done by a length
310 Sedgefield-Soudain has only had 3 runs over fences and is unexposed over extreme distances.its 2w-2p-6r in fields of 9 or less and Tony McCoy takes over for the first time.Call me Mulligan has a strong record after a break of 80 days or more(3w-0p-5r) and is a danger.Angel Sun may go well but is 0w-1p-5r after being off the track for more than 40 days.
Back Soudain 11pts at 4.5-4th(-11pts)Looked the winner 4 out but didnt expect a horse that has stayed further,to weaken like it did.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total+443.78pts
Running Total+5213.11pts
20th February
2.0 Lingfield-Looks a 2 horse race to on my ratings.Hamoody is consistent and a solid rival but im surprised at the gap between it and Drawnfromthepast in the prices.The latter loves it at this track(4wins-3places-10runs),is 1w-1p-2r in February and in this class of race its 5w-2p-11r.The other thing that interests me is that Seb Sanders deserts Hamoody to get on Wheres Reilly despite having been on board for the last 4 runs.
Back Drawnfromthepast 11.5pts at 4.5(Accept 4.3)-4th(-11.5pts)Given every chance but didnt pick up
345 Ludlow-Very tight on ratings with Ultimate,Drussel.Teshali and Dreambrook Lady all holding claims.From a value point of view,Rowlestone Lad is a decent price,joint top rated on its last run over trip and ground and is 2w-4p-8r going right handed.
Back Rowlestone Lad 5pts at 10.0-(Not Matched) Horse close to being matched last night but got backed into where it shouldve been 4.5.
Monthly Total+472.28pts
Running Total+5230.11pts
19th February
240 Wetherby-This looks a good opportunity for the unexposed Forty Crown as it steps into handicap company for the first time.Its steadily progressing and should be too good for these.Agglestone Rock is the danger for me but isnt proven over the trip.Delightfully got a decent rating last time but is 0wins-3places-22runs in this class of race.
Back Forty Crown 15pts at 3.35-Won(35.25pts)
315 Wetherby-Difficult to see past No Secrets or Good Order here,the latter in particular should go well while Douglas Julian,if on a going day,has got the ratings to take a hand.It has a strong profile(0-9 runners) 6w-0p-9r (February) 1w-0p-2r (Soft Ground) 2w-0p-4r.See U Bob has got a few pounds to find on my ratings and is also a pretty inconsistent horse,add in the record of 0w-5p-13r in fields of less than 9 runners and it looks very vulnerable.
Lay See U Bob 30pts at 5.5-2nd(+30pts)
425 Wetherby-Jack the Gent and Wilde Pastures look set to fight out the finish of this but I have them as joint favs and have to support the latter with such a discrepancy in the prices.Jack the Gents win record of 1/17 isnt great either and with Wilde Pastures only having had 3 runs over fences,it looks a strong opponent.Noble Legend was progressing well until a shocker last time but is back down in trip and has to improve for it to trouble the main two.
Back Wilde Pastures 14pts at 4.0 at Paddy Power(Accept 3.85)-Won(+42pts)(DT+107.25pts)
Days total minus commission+101.88
Monthly Total+472.28pts
Running Total+5241.61pts
18th February
340 Carlisle-This is a good race of its type and the selection currently needs to drift a little but the market isnt really formed yet and it wouldnt take much for it to get matched,so im going to put it up.
Emperors Choice is the selection,An unexposed,improving chaser from an in form yard who looks sure to go well.I also like in its profile that between January and April its 3wins-2place-6runs and on heavy ground (2w-4p-7r).Sydney Paget has a similar profile but without quite so good ratings,it is still improving though.Markadam is inconsistent but on its best ,would be about and You Know Yourself although a bit behind on ratings,is 3/4 at this track.
Back Emperors Choice 9pts at 6.4 -Won(But unfortunately wasnt matched)
17th February
330 Market Rasen-A race that revolves around Thunderstorm,an improving hurdler from the Phillip Hobbs stable.Although it will love the soft ground,it needs to step forward again significantly.Ive got it nearly a stone behind my top rated.Reluctant to lay it as it is improving but it clearly makes the market,The top rated horse is Marodima,who I feel is better after a break these days(won its last 2 races after a break of 80 days or more).It returns to the track after 85 days for this race and as long as it doesnt get too much competiton for the lead,it should go well.It has a really solid profile (Class 4 races) 9wins-4places-23races (Heavy/Soft ground) 8w-3p-26r (R/H track)7w-1p-20r.
Back Marodima 4pts at 17.0 at Bet365-UP(-4pts)Shot off in front but couldnt keep it up.
Monthly Total+370.40pts
Running Total+5139.73pts
16th February
255 Haydock-Really good race where I like the progressive Well Refreshed.Top rated on its last run and still improving with a solid record 4w-0p-9r going left handed,it should go well.Rigadin De Beauchene is next best and is another improving chaser while Cannington Brook and Monbeg Dude should also run their race.Ive got Teaforthree around the 10/1 mark and ive got to take it on.
Back Well Refreshed 10pts at 8.5 at Paddy Power(Accept 5.5)-Won & Lay Teaforthree 30pts at 6.0-UP(+105pts)
240 Ascot-Vino Griego put up a career best rating last time over a bit shorter,In an ideal world the trip would be the same but its not tried this trip many times.Its 3w-3p-11r on soft/heavy ground and if it stays the trip properly then it must take some beating.
Back Vino Griego 10pts at 5.5 at Victor Chandler-Won*1 Non Runner*(+40pts)(DT+145pts)Just a brilliant Day!
Days total minus commission+143.50pts
Monthly Total+374.40pts
Running Total+5143.73pts
15th February
150 Sandown-After its easy win last week,Relax looks to hold a great chance here.Its clear top rated with only the improving Mountainous any sort of danger.There are no negatives in its profile either(0-9 runners)3w-3p-9r and soft ground(3w-0p-4r)
Back Relax 20pts at 3.0-Wasnt Matched
630 Wolverhampton-Quite a competitive claimer but Faithful Ruler looks nailed on to run well,it loves this track(7 wins) and its young jockey is 2/2 on the horse.One way or Another has a rating that wins this but tends to lose its form around February and is 0w-4p-12r in class 5 races.I feel the main danger is Refreshestheparts who has form figures of 1,2,2,3 over this course and distance
Back Faithful Ruler 11pts at 4.5-4th(-11pts)Took a big walk in the market just before the off and never in with a chance
730 Wolverhampton-Not impossible that one of the less exposed horses will improve past Black Dave but on its last run its sets the standard.The excellent topspeed figure it produced shows the others do have to improve a fair bit if it can be reproduced.
Back Black Dave 8pts at 5.5 at Ladbrokes(Accept 4.5)-3rd(-8pts)Possible its best at Kempton as it could only plug on.(DT-19pts)
Monthly Total+230.90pts
Running Total+5000.23pts
13th February
240 Musselburgh-Markadam is a little in and out but if on a going day,will go close here.It achieved easily the best rating of these last time on only its 3rd chase start, although over further and on different ground but it is a course and distance winner on the forecast good ground over hurdles.Avenging Ace looks very short in the betting on whats it done but im not convinced theres enough solid horses in this race to lay it.
Back Markadam 10pts at 4.5 at Ladbrokes-Non Runner
12th February
230 Lingfield-There has to a slight query about the rating for Richo,after just the 1 run in a novice chase but if it can be trusted(The topspeed figure is solid) then it has an outstanding chance in this weak race.Little Jimmy is probably the main danger but anything remotely close to its last run would make Richo extremely difficult to beat.
Back Richo 25pts at 4.0 at Paddys-2nd(-25pts)Pulled very hard early and whether that was to blame for it weakening when looking the winner(Traded 1.6 in running) then who knows? Very disappointed!
450 Southwell-Honest Strike ran a stinker last time but even on its better previous run ,ive still got it 5Ibs behind the principals.Goldmadchen is very solid,top rated with a 1st and a 2nd from just 2 runs here while Days of Destiny and The Ducking Stool should also run well.
Lay Honest Strike 30pts at 6.0-Non Runner
Monthly Total+249.90pts
Running Total+5019.23pts
10th February
250 Southwell-Only 4 runners but hopefully a good chance for Napinda to break its duck.It looks to be slowly improving and produced its best ever rating last time on its first run at this track.Darkest Night has won its last 2 races but needs to improve again and is unproven here.At the moment Shearian looks better at 7f while Una Bella Cosa ran a shocker last time.
Back Napinda 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)Thought we had no chance of getting matched especially with the non runner but the money came for Shearian,who ran a good race but Napinda just ground it out.
Days total minus commission+38pts
Monthly Total+274.90pts
Running Total+5044.23pts
9th February
205 Warwick-Drumshambo is a very progressive chaser who finishes its races strongly,it could be even better over this trip.Molotof has raced either side of this trip and this may be its optimum while Bocciani is 2/2 in February and should be about as well.Doeslessthanme on my ratings wants a shorter trip and better ground,if it was trained by anyone else it would be around the 12/1 mark,which is where I have it.
Back Drumshambo 14pts at 3.5 -2nd(-14pts) and Lay Doeslessthanme 30pts at 6.0-UP(+10pts)Only partially matched on the lay.
4.0 Uttoxeter-Dirty Deal has no record fresh and is 0w-0p-4r going right handed,so its below par run 1st time out at Leicester(R/H track) was no surprise.It may be that its not in the same form as last year but its 3w-2p-7r going left handed and its best form is on soft/heavy ground.At the prices its just too big to miss.
Back Dirty Deal 5pts at 15.0 at Bet365(Accept 10.0)-Won(+70pts)They allowed it an easy lead and it won pretty well.Lovely winner!(DT+66pts)
Monthly Total+236.90pts
Running Total+5006.23pts
8th February
3.0 Newcastle-There are some very in form horses running in this,none more so than Tipsy Dara,who continues to progress and has a very solid profile(0-9 runners)4wins-0places-9runs and (Heavy Ground) 5w-1p-8r.Armedanddangerous could have loads more to offer and Overyou is a consistent dour stayer.Take Over Sivola will handle the conditions but its ratings over this trip are way below its best and its a very inconsistent animal anyway.
Lay Take Over Sivola 30pts at 5.5-UP(+30pts)
410 Newcastle-A field of largely exposed horses here except for Sleep in First,who although hasnt won a race yet,is still very unexposed as a chaser.It fell last time when looking the winner and providing that hasnt left a mark,it should go well here.
Back Sleep in First 15pts at 3.5 at Bet365(Accept 3.25)-2nd(-15pts)Bad mistake in the back straight saw it lose its place before staying on again but the winner had gone.(DT+15pts)
345 Bangor-Lean Burn is no handicap good thing but is a pretty solid horse in this race,this course winner has conditions to suit(0-9 runners 3w-1p-10r) and should go well.Lucky Prince drops back to 2m where it has got the ratings to go close after pulling up last time.Louxor Des Mottes and Mecox Bay both make their handicap debuts so they may improve while Engai is fav but will need to improve to win on my ratings.
Back Lean Burn 8pts at 6.4(Accept 5.3)-UP(-8pts)Never travelling(DT+7pts)
Days total minus commission+6.65pts
Monthly Total+170.90pts
Running Total+4940.23pts
7th February
250 Taunton-Mr Mole will be the obvious fav here,it is the `sexy` horse and it may well be different class to these but it does need to improve and has also got to handle the heavy ground.Home Run has a bit to find but continues to improve and defy the handicapper but I like the lightly raced,Tornado in Milan who finished 2nd behind a blog selection last time and this improving horse should go well.
Back Tornado in Milan 6.5pts at 7.0-3rd(-6.5pts)Well backed but Farce of a race as Milan`s jockey had to let the horse go on as it was pulling his arms out.Having said that it wouldnt have beaten Mr Mole,who looked very good.
335 Doncaster-Relax stands out a mile here after a great run last time when stepped up to 3miles for the first time,it finished 2nd behind the very progressive Pete the Feat and anything close to that rating will be good enough.
Back Relax 10pts at 5.0-Won(+40pts)Hammered in all day and won easily(DT+33.5pts)
435 Doncaster-Away from its beloved Sedgefield,Schinken Otto must be vulnerable here,this 12yo is up against some unexposed and improving horses here.Sacre Toi looks the strongest with a record of 2wins-1place-3runs over 2miles while Qoubilai would go close if repeating its run 2 starts back.Memorabilla and Jack the Gent should also go well.
Lay Schinken Otto 30pts at 6.0-UP(Wasnt Matched)really close to being matched when the selection was sent out but it drifted out to where it shouldve been and finished tailed off.
Days total minus commission+31.82pts
Monthly Total+164.25pts
Running Total+4933.58pts
6th February
330 Carlisle-The Friary produced a good rating(Top rated here)last time on its chase debut and must go well here if running anywhere close to it.Ebony River also fairly unexposed but fell last time.Dark Glacier is well handicapped on its hurdles form but has run nowhere close to it on its 3 runs over fences,it makes the market for the selection.
Back The Friary 15pts at 5.0 at Bet365(Accept 3.75)-2nd(-15pts)The priced moved in all morning then drifted out on track.Got beaten by an outsider after travelling really well and trading at odds on.
Monthly Total+132.43pts
Running Total+4901.76pts
4th February
525 Wolverhampton-Unless Ashkalara improves for the step up in trip then this looks a 2 horse race between Annelko and Wordiness with preference for the latter.It needs to drift just a little to get matched,so maybe leave it in running for a bit but this consistent horse should go very close.
Back Wordiness 11pts at 4.3-Won(+36.3pts)Was matched before race,Travelled really well and won easily
Days total minus commission+34.48pts
Monthly Total+147.43pts
Running Total+4916.76pts
3rd February
3.0 Musselburgh-Prince of Dreams is still a maiden and that has to be a slight concern but each of its 4 runs over fences have shown improvement.It shouldve won 2 starts ago but fell at the last fence and last time it came 2nd behind Arthurs Pass who followed up this week.Nicky Hendersons Anquetta has to be respected and the improving Swift Arrow are the main dangers.
Back Prince of Dreams 10pts at 7.5 at Ladbrokes or Boyles-Won(+65pts)Looks a horse on the upgrade as this was a decent race,
Monthly Total+112.95
Running Total+4882.28pts
2nd February
355 Wetherby-Very competitive race in which several are fancied but im going to have a little bit on Always Right,who appears to be the classic rest pattern horse(Rest pattern=A horse that runs well fresh and also sometimes on its second run back but then loses its form).After a break of 80 days or more its 4wins-1place-6runs,in fields of 10 to 15 runners(2w-1p-6r) and 2/3 on soft.
Back Always Right 5pts at 21.0 at Bet365(Accept 13.0)-UP(-5pts)
335 Sandown-Keppols Hill will the choice of many as a progressive chaser from the Nicholls stable and it should go well although it hasnt posted a decent speed figure yet.Mister Hyde has a good chance ratings wise but is 0w-0p-7r in February and March.Viking Blond ran poorly last time for the 2nd year running in the Welsh national,hard to figure out why,it can only be the track and that distance combined but on its run before,it posted a rating that is very competitive.It has a nice profile with (0-9 runners) 2w-1p-7r,(February) 1w-p-3r,(Heavy) 2w-4p-8r and (R/H track) 3w-1p-6r
Back Viking Blond 5pts at 11.0(Accept 10.0)-2nd(-5pts)Nicely backed and ran a tremendous race,forcing what looked like a suicidal pace with Mister Hyde and yet as that one faded,it kept coming back for more,(DT-10pts)
Monthly Total+47.95pts
Running Total+4812.28pts
1st February
450 Wolves-Hurricane Spirit is very solid here.I have a little query on its ratings around this track that are below those at the other polytracks but its profile is good.(0-9 runners 7wins-0places-18runs),The jockey is 3w-2p-8r and the trainer in the last 28 days is 3w-2p-5r.I cant see 2nd in the market,Yourinthewill beating so I felt the main danger may be Elspeths Boy who runs ok after a break and is 2w-1p-5r in class 5 races but at the moment it doesnt look fancied.
Back Hurricane Spirit 20pts at 3.0-Won(+40pts)Got matched to bits last night and then the rest in the run as it was well backed into odds on pre race.
6.0 Wolves-Competitve stuff where I can see Idol Deputy(December to February 5w-5p-12r) and Goldstorm(at track 2w-3p-7r) running well but I like the progressive Jumbo Prado ,who is 1w-1p-2r at this course and is top rated on its last run.
Back Jumbo Prado 9pts at 6.6 -UP(-9pts)Well backed into 4.5 but took a bad bump 1f out although I dont think it wouldve got there anyway.(DT+31pts)
7.0 Wolves-Capone has won at this course but my ratings say its a better horse around Kempton and after a break of 29days or more,its 0w-3p-11r.It also carries a penalty which always makes things tougher.York Glory should win this and is very solid but Piscean and Swiss Cross are also fancied to run well.
Lay Capone 30pts at 5.0-UP(+30pts)My old mate(!) Piscean turned up a week late to swoop late to deny York Glory.(DT+61pts)
Days total minus commission+57.95pts
Days total minus commission+57.95pts
Running Total+4827.28pts
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