31st January

310 Ffos Las-Mr Fitzroy hasnt had many chances over hurdles and after probably not staying the 2m3f trip last time,im hoping the drop back to the distance,where it won on its handicap debut ,can see it get back on track.That win was on heavy ground and this is sure to be testing here.

It looks the value to me.

The obvious danger has to be Heath Hunter ,who possibly hasnt stayed the trip on its 2 starts this season and with it being 1 from 1 at this track,it should run well but it looks the right price.

War Singer looks vulnerable,The Green Ogre not good enough,so Cyclop could be the other to fill the frame.

Back Mr Fitzroy 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies-3rd(-7pts)Looked the winner but just hurdled so poorly,it lost all its momentum.Dont think theres any doubt if it had jumped better,it would have prevailed.

210 Wetherby-This is a tight race but Mwaleshi produced a career best last time and represent a yard that have won this race in 4 of the last 6 years.

This horse itself is 2 from 3 around here,so although it sometimes has a habit of jumping right,it clearly doesnt hinder it that much.

At its best Pepite Rose would go very close,but i just wonder about it going this far,on this ground.

Firth of the Clyde is 2w-1p-4r at this track and should go close but the trainer for him,has had a poor season.

Indian Voyage has nothing in hand from the handicapper but is rock solid and consistent.

Back Mwaleshi 8pts at 6.0 at various bookies-3rd(-8pts)Strong in the market and beat,what i thought,were the dangers but was one paced in the straight.(DT-15pts)

Monthly Total+139.50pts

Running total+7323.79pts

30th January

405 Chepstow-Loughalder pulled up on its seasonal debut  and after running poorly on its final start of last season,there is always the chance the horse has lost its way but there is plenty of evidence for us to expect a much better run today.

This horse starts winning after the turn of the year(Jan to April 5w-1p-12r) and is 4w-1p-14r in fields of 10 or less.

But the biggest thing in its favour is a return to this course where its form figures on the chase track read 3rd-1st-1st-1st.

Gunna Be a Devil could get a solo in front and that has to be a worry,its probably the biggest danger as im not sure about Favoured Nation on this ground

Back Loughalder 9pts at 6.0-3rd

(7.0 is now available)

255 Chepstow-Strange Bird is a bit in and out but is unexposed over fences and was in fromt 4 out when coming to grief last time.

Its previous run,when winning on its chase debut,gives it a decent chance here and its 2 from 8 on heavy ground.

Head Spin looks the obvious danger but is 0w-1p-6r on heavy and 0w-1p-5r in this grade.

Its trainers record of 0 from 19 in handicap chases here only adds to the doubts over its ability to run up to form.

Long John is diffficult to assess while Eastern Witness drops in trip and hasnt had many chances over fences but hasnt looked any good so far.

Back Strange Bird 12pts at 4.3 at Paddys(Accept 3.5)-Pulled Up(DT-21pts)A couple of sorry selections today.Both very weak in the betting and ran accordingly.Very poor finish to the finish after such a good start.

Monthly total+154.50pts

Running Total+7338.79pts

29th January

710 Wolverhampton-Casius has had 3 runs so far in its career.All at Kempton,in maidens and at shorter than todays distance.

Its possible the horse isnt any good but Luke Morris being booked catches my eye as hes trying to win the all weather jockeys championship and I doubt he would get jocked up on a no hoper.

Also positives are the step up in distance and the move to the new Tapeta surface(Sire 6 wins from 22 runners on it) for its handicap debut.

You would want to see some money for it obviously.

The favourite Anniversarie has already been beaten in 2 handicaps and the sire is 0 from 19 on this surface.

Back Casius 3pts at 17.0 at Betfair Sportsbook(Accept 13.0)-UP(-3pts)Late money for it but this horse is useless!

28th January

615 Kempton-This is a fairly standard AW handicap but Pretty Bubbles looks certain to run well.(At least it wont fall over a fence like half the tips recently)

Its ran 2 solid races at Southwell but is much better here(Kempton 3w-2p-7r).

Its 3w-2p-9r at this trip but stays further,so should be finishing and Freddie Tylicki is back on for the first time in a while(4w-1p-10r on it)

Drive on moves back up in class but is 3 from 5 at this trip but probably the one im most worried about is the fairly unexposed Dutch S.

Its only had 5 runs and returns after an absence but on my figures,its best 2 runs have been when its off a lay off.

Back Pretty Bubbles 9pts at 5.5 at Various Bookies(Accept 5.0)-Won(+40.5pts)At last,a winner!

220 Newcastle-Little Glenshee is 2 from 2 here and is respected but likes to place a lot and looks slightly better at shorter to me.

Outlaw Tom is best at Hexham while Beeves has it to prove on soft ground and after pulling up last time.

For me,it concerns No Through Road and Silverton.

The former is a big threat and can handle a quick return to the track(7 days or less 2 from 3) but its all price related and the value has to be with Silverton.

This horse has only had 3 runs over fences and actually takes a drop in class here for this.

On my ratings,its got as good as chance as the favourite and its price is out of line.

Back Silverton 12pts at 5.0 at betbright(Accept 4.0)-3rd(-12pts)Hard to believe this wasnt involved in the finish.Traded down to 1.75 before just falling away badly.Really disappointing!.

330 Leicester-St Johns Point was a borderline selection last night but the money for Theregoesthetruth has seen it drift to a decent price based on its latest run where it posted easily the best rating of these and makes its handicap debut here.

It looks on a lenient mark with the well beaten 3rd last time,winning next time out.

Noel Fehily takes the mount and is 4 from 7 for this yard at this track.

Attwaal is 4 from 7 going right handed,so will like this track but may prefer shorter than this while Allthegear No Idea is improving and should appreciate the step up in trip.

Theregoesthetruth goes well around here but needs to improve on my figures.

Back St Johns Point 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Always going to be the way when sending this out as the price had drifted.Awful run.(DT+16.5pts)

Monthly Total+178.50pts

Running Total+7362.79pts

27th January

4.0 Taunton-Milosam was a little below par last time but the return to this track where its form figures read 2nd-1st-2nd-1st-1st-1st has to be a positive.

Its 4w-2p-8r in fields of 9 or less and im hoping this horse will set a decent test up the front as half the field have stamina doubts.

Mrs Jordan,Dans wee Man and Smart Money all have ratings at shorter that suggest they are well enough handicapped to get involved but whether that happens at this trip is another matter.

Back Milosam 15pts at 3.25-Fell(-15pts)This horse has never fell before but took a tumble too far out to tell what would have happened but I would have been surprised if it didnt beat the winner.

Monthly Total+162.0pts

Running Total+7346.29pts

26th January

4.0 Plumpton-Im hoping the sheer consistency of Cruising Bye pays off here.

Unlike its opponents it can be relied upon to run its race and despite a frustrating run of 2nd places,I dont believe this horse looks ungenuine.

Last time out it finished just behind todays rival,Volio Vincente and with the pull in the weights plus the fact that race was at Fontwell and Volio is 3/3 at the track,there are strong reasons to feel it can beat that horse today on this different track.

The trainer is 8 from 36(22%) with his handicap chasers here and has one of my favourite jockeys(Jamie Moore) onboard.

Brunette Sonly has chances on its best form but is pretty in and out.Lets hope its an out.

Back Cruising Bye 14pts at 3.5-3rd(-14pts)Very frustrating race to watch as despite the efforts of its jokcey,this horse would not goto the front and was quite happy plodding away behind.Never Again!

350 Ludlow-Wide open handicap and from a value perspective,Kerryhead Storm has to be supported.

This horse had completely lost its way before the introduction of a tongue tie saw it bounce back last time.

That run produced a good rating and a decent topspeed figure,so I dont feel it was a fluke although recognizing its previous record,it cannot be guaranteed that it will back it up.If it does however,then it really shouldnt be the price it is.

Snowell is the biggest danger,all of its 4 career wins have come on right handed courses like this and it would hold strong claims on its rating from 2 starts back.

Back Kerryhead Storm 5pts at 10.0 -2nd(-5pts)Ran a great race and beaten by a well backed horse that dropped down to 2 miles for the first time.(DT-19pts)

24th January

225 Cheltenham-For some reason Easter Day is now running here rather than its first preference at Doncaster.

I believe this is a good decision as despite this being a class 1 handicap,its pretty weak with many horses having doubts hanging over them.

The selection weakened late on last time over 3 miles,on its first run for a year.I believe the step back in trip to 2m4 is just whats needed.

Its form figures at this distance read 1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st.....Its 4 from 4 on soft and 5r-1p-8r in fields of 10 or less.

Annacotty pulled up when last seen but looks the danger to me,based on its previous run over this trip.

Little Jon has had 2 mishaps in its 2 latest starts and is 0w-1p-7r when returning to the track within 28 days.

Sew on Target looks a non stayer while Dare Me is is 0w-0p-4r at this track and 0w-1p-7r in this class.

Back Easter Day 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies(Accept 3.75)-Fell(-12pts)Looking at the result and how it was travelling then this surely would have won.Summed up the last 2 weeks after such a good start to the month.

325 Uttoxeter-Harrys Farewell has only had 2 starts over fences and produced a good rating last time when 2nd on good ground over todays trip.

Its record on heavy ground reads 1st-3rd-1st,so this surface has to be positive and with the possibility of more improvement,it should run really well.

Marie Des Anges is the obvious danger after winning just 5 days ago.This is a quick turnaround though and while its proven on soft,heavy is an unknown.

Winston Churchill will handle the conditions but doesnt win very often while Less Time,moves up in trip on ground it hasnt encountered before.

The market will tell its tale although the yard have started picking up of late.

Back Harrys Farewell 12pts at 4.5-2nd(-12pts)7/2 into 2/1 and beaten a fence!(DT-24pts)

Monthly Total+196.0pts

Running Total+7380.29pts

23rd January

Meeting Abandoned

21st January

135 Catterick-Martin Keighley has an eye catching record with his chasers here(3 from 6) and must have good prospects of improving that with Always Bold.

It got off the mark over fences last time and is a force in this lowly grade(4w-7p-16r) and likes a recent run(14 days or less 6w-7p-21r)

It has no problems with ground or trip and hopefully will make that count

If Fromthetop handles this soft ground then its a major danger but its sire is just 2 from 41 around todays trip on soft ground.

Runswick Days looks better at shorter as does Wakhan but the latter does represent a bang in form yard.

Last years winner Over and Above could go close if it has one of its rare good days.

Back Always Bold 7pts at 7.5 at various Bookies-UP(-7pts)Ran a fine race

240 Catterick-Stopped Out is no good thing at the weights but shouldnt be the price it is,in a pretty weak affair.

Im hoping this horse can loose in the lead and around this track,that is no bad thing.

Its record at sharp tracks is decent(5w-4p-22r) and in 10 runners or less its 6w-6p-21r.

Conquisto makes its debut for Brian Ellison and at its best would be a threat.

Local Hero returns from an absence and while McCoy has a good record for the trainer(10/46),the yard are 0 from 14 with their hurdlers here.

Danny Cook is an interesting jockey booking for Dark Dune but it has to prove its stamina for this trip.

Back Stopped Out 8pts at 6.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-8pts)Very poor run.(DT-15pts)

310 Catterick-Grate Fella looks rock solid here.2 from 2 at the track and has only had 3 starts over fences.

The yard have had 5 winners from their last 14 runners and it must go well.It is however around the right price.

If the unexposed Russborough can finish in front of Grate Fella then I would expect it to win.

It ran pretty well on its British debut over fences,when possibly looking like it needed further,so todays softer ground should help.

Venitia Williams is 6 from 23 with her runners here.

The early money has come for Tiptoeaway,whos very well handicapped on its 2012 form.

I dont think its a given on the ground or the drop in trip.

Back Russborough 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-2nd to Grate Fella(-7pts)

325 Ayr-Its not without a chance but I cant have Sharney Sike as favourite here.

Its won on heavy ground but on my figures,is a better horse on good to soft to soft and the trainer is 1 from 56 with his runners here.

If No Through Road is fine on the softest ground its ever encountered then it will go very close.

Its been very progressive this season and may not be finished yet.

Chavoy produced a good run last time and posted its best rating yet,its 2 from 4 in January and 3w-2p-7r in this grade.

Harry The Lemon represent a yard that have finally hit form after a very slow start to the season,its very unexposed as a chaser.

Arc Warrior makes its debut for the Nicky Richards yard(26% with his chasers here),if he can get it back to its best then it has the ratings to figure.

Lay Sharney Sike 20pts at 4.5-UP(+19pts A/C)(DT-3pts)

20th January

140 Wetherby-Crescent Beach won last time but has been hit with an 11Ib rise.

Its up in class into a grade where its 0w-2p-11r....0w-1p-7r on galloping tracks like this and 0w-2p-15r going left handed.

Hardly impressive credentials for a favourite?

Rowdy Rocher is lightly raced and shouldnt be far away while Bennys Well,although below par the last twice,drops back into a grade where its recent runs have been pretty impressive(1st-7th-1st-2nd-1st-2nd) and the yard are in flying form.

I shall risk a bit on Great Link,who blotted its copybook for us last time,whipping round at the start and never able to get involved.

That was a much better race than this however and after just 5 starts over fences,its still fairly unexposed.

Its 2 from 2 on galloping tracks,3w-0p-7r on left handed tracks and 3w-1p-5r from December to February.

Back Great Link 7pts at 7.0 at Various Bookies(Accept 6.0)-Fell

Lay Crescent Beach 20pts at 4.5-U/P(+12pts after commission)

Monthly Total+223.0pts

Running Total+7407.29pts

19th January

Meeting Abandoned

17th January

1220 Haydock-Kingswell Theatre is unexposed and makes its handicap debut but the trainer is 0 from 35 with her handicap hurdlers here and that is enough to put anyone off.

Milansbar looks a big threat(3 from 3 on heavy) but is the right price while Barafundle ran well last time after an absence.

Its getting on now but Araldur looks a bigger price than it should be.It posted a good rating last time out,is 6w-4p-12r in fields of 10 or less and 2w-2p-4r in this grade.

Back Araldur 6pts at 7.5(Already Advised)-4th(-6pts)Travelled very well but sloppy hurdling cost it.

240 Haydock-This is a 2 horse race.

Third Intention is top rated and will appreciate the return not only to this track(1st and 2nd in 2 starts here) but also going this way round(6w-5p-21r L/H) compared to its last 2 runs the other way round(R/H 0w-1p-11r)

Its 3w-3p-6r in this grade and is the one to beat.

Carraig Mor unseated last time but is the main danger.

Back Third Intention 18pts at 3.0 at Betfair Exchange.-Fell(-18pts)Very frustrating to fall early on as the main danger ran no race.Would surely have won if standing up(DT-24pts)

250 Taunton-Some of the younger,unexposed horses may prove too much but I cant let Helium go unbacked at a stupid price.

This horse finished a good 2nd on the flat 15 days ago and returns to hurdles back on its last winning mark.

It has form figures of 3-1-1-2 at this track,the trainer is 5 from 15 with her handicap hurdlers here and she is 4 from 7 when riding one of her horses at Taunton.

Southfield Royale could be different class to these but is short enough on what its done so far.

Rocky Elsom and Oscar Sunset have chances while Daveron is 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Back Helium 4pts at 17.0(Already Advised)-UP(-4pts)(DT-28pts)

Monthly Total+211pts

Running Total+7395.29pts

16th January

245 Musselburgh-Habbie Simpson finished just in front of Riskier last time and despite the turnaround in the weights.I think it can do so again.

Riskier is a better horse going the other way round(R/H 0w-0p-4r) while Habbie Simpson has a good profile.

The trainer is 3 from 13 in handicap Chases here,is 3 from 4 on soft ground and 4w-2p-8r over todays trip.

Quito Du Tresor could make them all go if at its best but has become very inconsistent and prefers better ground(Soft 0w-3p-9r)

Man With Van is 3 from 3 going right handed but needs to improve on my figures.

Back Habbie Simpson 13pts at 4.3 (Already Advised)-3rd(-13pts)Ground dried out and on this track,the horse got outpaced.Stayed on well but too late.

15th January

145 Market Rasen-Mick Applebys horses are in great form and his Favourite Girl,should go close here.

Its latest rating and speed figure make it the one to beat and going right handed is what this horse wants(2w-3p-7r)

King of Strings is next best while Ossie`s Dancer probably needs the ground to turn heavy to be at its best.

Rayak represents top connections and would have chances at its best but is 0 from 14 overall.

Back Favourite Girl 9pts at 5.5-Won(+40.5pts)Hurdled fluently and hosed up.

205 Wincanton-This originally looks competitve with the progressive Trickaway and Like Minded very much respected but after that,there isnt that much there in my view.

Opening Batsmen really catches my eye.

Its possible its completely lost its way but I believe its been running over a trip that really stretches it.It did win once in 10 starts at 3 miles but that was on good ground and at other times,on softer ground its been running seemingly below par and as a consequence,its become extremely well handicapped.

It could hardly have a better profile,

2w-1p-4r at this track..the trainer has won with 6 of his last 8 runners...2w-1p-3r on soft/heavy ground...Returning to the track within 42 days or less 4w-3p-11r.

The real key for the selection however is the drop back to 2m4f.

Its form figures in races around the distance read 1st-2nd-1st-12th-1st-1st.

Back Opening Batsmen 7pts at 7.0(Already Advised)-2nd(-7pts)Beat the dangers but got done by the outsider.Very frustrating race to watch.(DT+33.5pts)

Monthly Total+252.0pts

Running Total+7436.29pts

14th January

3.0 Lingfield-Peterhouse hails from a powerful yard and after 3 ordinary runs at shorter,now makes its handicap debut over a more suitable trip.It should go well.

Helmsman, on the bare figures of its run last time in France, looks to have pretty strong claims.

Amadeity doesnt look on a very lenient mark now handicapping and has proved very one paced at the business end of races so far.

The trainer has record of 1 win from 48 runners at this track.Ive got it more around the 9/1 mark.

Lay Amadeity 20pts at 5.5-UP(+19pts after commission)

Monthly Total+218.50pts

Running Total+7402.79pts

13th January

205 Fakenham-Lucy Wadham has a 22% strike rate with her horses here and must have a good chance of improving that with Rendezvous Peak here.

This horse posted a career best rating last time,on its 2nd start in handicaps and a repeat would make it tough to beat.

Cappielow Park has been running well but isnt proven over this far and is 0w-2p-8r in this grade.

Raktiman has to bounce back after running poorly last time while Bajardo would have chances on its latest run but i would have preferred it if it was down not up in trip.

Back Rendezvous Peak 18pts at 3.0 at Betfair Exchange-3rd(-18pts)Dont know if it was the track but never looked comfortable.Another disappointing performance

Monthly Total+199.5pts

Running Total+7383.79pts

12th January

405 Plumpton-Bally Sands threw away a race 3 days ago when the jockey went to take the wrong course but even so,im amazed Leith Hill Legasi isnt favourite here.

This horse has only had 2 starts over fences and won in decisive fashion last time,posting easily the best recent rating and a good speed figure.

The trainer is 7 from 19 with his chasers here and the jockey/trainer combination has a 29% strike rate when teaming up.

Back Leith Hill Legasi 20pts at 3.75(Already Advised)-Pulled Up.(-20pts)Ground looked like glue and the weakness in the market preceeded an awful run.

10th January

120 Warwick-This is a pretty good race.

Upepito should go well for last years winning stable while Greywell Boy ran well last time when a selection for us.

Its form figures over 2 miles on soft ground of 3rd-1st-1st-1st-2nd warrant plenty of respect.

Keel Haul has only had the one run over fences and needs to improve to figure but won both its hurdles starts at this track.

At a nice price however,Great Link appeals to me.Its won on a variety of ground and has only had just 4 runs over fences.

It drops in trip which should suit(its best hurdles rating came over this trip),is 3w-1p-4r between December and February and 3w-1p-8r in fields of 9 or less.

Back Great Link 6pts at 9.0(Already advised)-UP(-6pts)Money for it but everything went wrong.Horse whipped round at the start and that was more or less it.

145 Wetherby-Trying to work out horses runs in novice/Trial races is never easy but on my bare ratings,Beatabout The Bush has a far better chance than its current odds suggest.

This horse makes its handicap debut for a yard going pretty well.

I like the jockey booking and if theres a bit of support for it then i would anticpate a good run.

I couldnt give it each way because(lets face it) nothing i give each way ever places does it?

Kayf Blanco looks the main danger although Wordys Boy isnt out of it.

Rayadour has form figures of 1st-1st-7th when racing over today CD but even its best ratings dont look good enough.

Back Beatabout The Bush 4pts at 13.0 at various bookies(Accept 9.0)-Won(+48pts)Despite nearly getting knocked over down the back straight.This horse won pretty easy.(DT+42pts)

Monthly Total+237.50pts

Running Total+7421.79pts

9th January

1245 Huntingdon-One or two with potential in here but Johns Luck hasnt had that many chances and I just cant see it being out of the frame.

The horse tends to travel well,so the drop in trip should suit and although its creeping up the weights,its latest rating and speed figure suggests it up to this.

Its 1w-1p-2r going right handed and i expect to see it involved in the finish.

Belmount is lightly raced and makes its handicap debut while Bouggietopieces won on its handicap debut last time butit needs to improve on that to win this.

Back Johns Luck 4pts each way at 11.0(Already advised)-5th(-8pts)Hammered into 11/4 fav but ran pretty flat.

155 Huntingdon-Not a strong race featuring several with doubts over one thing or another.

Donapollo ran well last time over shorter,if it improves for the step up in trip then it will be a big danger to the one I like,Arbeo.

This horse has tumbled down the weights and is now 18Ibs lower than when it was a regular winner 2 seasons ago.

However it made an encouraging reappearance this season before disappointing badly last time out.

Its profile gives encourangement that it could return to the form of 2 starts back and if it can then it holds a class edge over these.

Its 1 from 1 at this track...2 from 4 when carrying 11st6 or more and 2 from 3 on easy tracks like this but perhaps most significantly,this horse comes into form after the new year has passed...From January to March its 4w-0p-6r.

Im not sure about Red Rouble over this distance,on this ground.I wouldnt mind coming to the last upsides it.

Back Arbeo 7pts at 7.0 at Corals(Accept 6.0)-Won(+42pts)Called the market correct again as it was punted into 2/1.Was given a fine ride to jump them silly.(DT+34pts)

Monthly Total+195.50pts

Running Total+7379.79pts

January 8th

310 Catterick-Last years winning stable of Sue Smith looks to have a decent chance of following up with Emral Silk.

This horse was staying on last time,posting a good rating in the process and the step up in trip to this course and distance where its 1 from 1 at,should be ideal.

This race is a drop in class and a horse that finished behind it last time,has already won its next start.

After only 7 starts in its career over hurdles,i would expect some more improvement and it should go very close.

Snowed In won last time over CD and should run well but it doesnt look a likely type to follow up.

Fearless Tunes makes its handicap debut,back from an absence and is respected but its needs to find some improvement to figure although thats not impossible.

Back Emral Silk 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies(Accept 4.3)-Won(+42pts)Given a very good patient ride to win very easily in the end.

Monthly Total+161.50pts

Running Total+7345.79pts

7th January

240 Taunton-Uranium didnt run that well on its return after 2 years off last time.That was its first run for the Venitia Williams stable,having previously ran in France.It wouldnt be the first horse from that yard this season,to hit top form after a quiet run since arriving from over the Channel.

If its reappearance run is as good as it is then it will have little chance here but anything close to its ratings in previous years then it would have a serious chance.

The trainer has a 23% strike rate with her chasers here but delve a little deeper and it gets better.

If you take her runners at this track,in January,in Handicap chases like this then the record improves to 4 from 8.

Money For Nothing is improving and lightly raced and is the obvious danger but the market knows that.

Back Uranium 12pts at 4,5(Already advised)-3rd(-12pts)Very weak pre race but looked to be coming to win when its jumping let it down over the last 2 fences.

230 Ludlow-Kingsmere needs the ground to dry out for it run to its best.On good ground it wouldnt be far away but its never been at its best on a softer surface.

Thats probably why its 0w-2p-7r during the winter months.0w-1p-8r going right handed is another negative while its 0w-3p-10r when carrying 11st5 or more.

Henri Parry Morgan looks sure to go close after a good run last time and with the yard in decent form.

Brandon Hill makes its handicap debut and needs to find a little on ratings but having posted a fine topspeed figure last time,it should be up to it.

Veauce De Sivola disappointed on its reappearance but on its best runs from last season,it would go very close.

Lay Kingsmere 20pts at 5.5(lay upto 6.0)-UP(+19pts after commission)(DT+7pts)

*Cancel or Trade out if Henri Parry Morgan,Brandon Hill or Veauce De Sivola dont run*

Monthly Total+119.50pts

Running Total+7303.79pts

6th January

220 Southwell-Kung Hei Fat Choy looks primed to follow up last seasons win in this race.

It races off the same mark as that win and this represents a drop in class.

Its 2 from 5 in January and is 3w-3p-11r when returning to the track within 7 days.

A repeat of its latest rating would see it going very close.

Best Tamayuz produced a career best last time but that was over a furlong further,it remains to be seen if it can repeat that back in trip.

Back Kung hei Fat Choy 12pts at 4.5 at Corals-Won(+42pts)Well backed and produced the goods.

Monthly Total+112.50pts

Running Total+7296.79pts

5th January

240 Lingfield-For a horse that comes from an out of form yard and went the wrong way last year,Marie Des Anges is a very short price.

The trainer is also 0 from 9 at this track and im keen to find some value elsewhere.

You feel a fool tipping up a 14yo but Nozic appeals on my ratings and just cannot be the outsider of this field.

It has no great record fresh but ran a sound race on his comeback run 32 days ago and if that run can be repeated,it could go close.

It will though at its age,depend on whether it fancied it or not,we should know our fate early.

At the other end of the scale,we have Lac Sacre,who has only 2 starts over fences but ran pretty well last time,its nicely handicapped off a mark 9Ib lower than it won off over hurdles and the trainer has stated he hoped it could be at least as good fences.

Gores Island is respected while Wicklewood won last time but is up in the weights,up in class and prefers racing the other way round(Left Handed 0w-5p-19r)

Back  Nozic 4pts at 13.0 at Betvictor/Paddy(Accept 11.0)-UP & Lac Sacre 4pts at 11.0 at various bookies(Accept 7.0)-3rd(-8pts)Nozic didnt want to know but Lac Sacre was staying on when it got badly hampered at the last.

310 Lingfield-Nouailhas has run 2 decent races the last twice but the fact remains its 1 from 32 in its career.

I wouldnt be amazed if it was on the premises but with the trainer being 0 from 19 here,I cant have it as market leader.

Gracie B is very interesting for a trainer with a decent record at this track.It steps up in trip for its handicap debut and is bred to be suited by it.

Dynamic Idol should be involved while Asker showed a lot more last time while Warsaw Pact is becoming nicely handicapped again.

Lay Nouailhas 20pts at 4.5(Lay upto 5.0)-Non Runner

3rd January

115 Sandown-Although its lightly raced,Madness Light does have a bit to prove here against other unexposed sorts and some pretty solid handicappers.

It fell on its seasonal debut but that race has worked out poorly and the trainer has a rare poor record here(0 from 25 with his hurdlers and chasers)

Tafika has form figures of 2nd-2nd-1st when encountering 2m4 on soft ground and should go well.

Until Winning is very unexposed after just the one run over fences while Golanova is also improving.

Granville Island looks solid while Frontier Spirit could really make them go,if it got loose in front.

Lay Madness Light 20pts at 6.0-UP(+20pts)

150 Sandown-Brick Red finished behind Mr Mole last time but there are reasons to believe it could turn that form around here.

Mr Mole looks best fresh,as a record of 5 from 5 after an absence of 80 days or more suggests but when(like today)it returns after 40 days or less then its record of 0w-3p-6r is far less appealing.Its still respected however as the trainer has won this 3 times in recent years.

The value has to be Brick Red though,as this horse doesnt start winning until the New year comes around(Jan/Feb 5w-2p-8r) and likes a recent run(28 days or less 4w-3p-12r)

It will love the ground and it should go close.

Williams Wishes has been very lightly raced in recent seasons but showed more last time,it would be a big danger if back to its best.

Back Brick Red 8pts at 6.5 at Corals/Bet365(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Frustratingly looked like coming there to win but was carried across by the winner causing it to switch and couldnt get there.

240 Wincanton-Earthmoves moves into handicap company with a nice progressive profile.

Trip and ground are perfect and anything close to its latest novice win would be good enough.The trainer is 27% with his hurdlers here.

Provo is very difficult to assess but could be the biggest danger.

Volt Face needs to have come on for its latest seasonal debut but the trainer has won this race the last 2 times it was staged,so it has to be feared.

Back Earthmoves 11pts at 4.3 at various bookies-3rd(-11pts)Smashed into 6/5 but just never got there.

140 Newcastle-This could well turn out to be a war of attrition and what we need is a horse that loves very soft ground and stays a bit further than todays trip.

Soudain ticks those boxes and interestingly makes its stable debut for a yard that are 20% with their chasers here but as ever with this outfit,I would want it to stay solid in the betting at the very least.

Soudain is 3w-2p-6r on heavy ground and 4w-5p-12r in fields of 10 or less.Its clearly the one to beat for me.

Beauboreen moves upto 3 miles over fences for the first time and could be a threat while High Ron represents a yard that are 2 from 4 with their chasers here.

Back Soudain 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies.-2nd(-12pts)Probably went quick enough early on but ran a great race.(DT-12pts)

2nd Jan

110 Ffos Las-There is no rain forecast which should help the chances of Typical Oscar,who has looked progressive over fences.

Tom Scudamore is 3 from 11 when riding for this yard and a clear round of jumping would see it go very close.

Dixie Bull and Magical Man are both lightly raced over fences and are the dangers with the latter preferred,as the step up in trip should suit.

Armedanddangerous handles the ground but has lost its way the last 2 seasons.It will appreciate the drop in grade but the trainer is struggling for winners and is 0 from 14 here.

Back Typical Oscar 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies(Accept 3.0)-UP(ground went against it)

Lay Armedandangerous 20pts at 6.0-2nd(+6pts)(+5pts after commission)

310 Ayr-Mijhaar was listed class on the flat and is beginning to show that ability over hurdles.Its latest run in a higher grade puts it top rated and the jockey is 3 from 5 for this yard.

Unfortunately just as I was typing this out,this horse has shortened up.

3/1 was a fair enough price but 5/2 is borderline.Im still sending this as I believe it will win but anything shorter than the current price wont be value in my eyes.

Tikkandmickey looks the main danger but is 0w-0p-3r at this track.

Back Mijhaar 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies-2nd(-14pts)Didnt hurdle great but unfortunately,this horse was given far too much to do by the jockey.(DT-9pts)

Monthly Total+90.5pts

Running Total+7274.79pts

1st January

305 Cheltenham-Good race,with several proven performers like Rock on Ruby,that will prove a tough nut to crack at a track where its won twice but unusually for the yard,Silsol looks to be improving fast and underrated by the market.

It won first time out this season,when the trainer thought it wasnt fit enough,posting a good rating and decent speed figure.

It will need to continue its progression but if it does then it will be bang there.

Nicky Henderson has won this 3 times in the last 4 years,so both his representatives have to be respected.

Back Silsol 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Poor

335 Fakenham-I know nothing of the trainer of Vision Du Coeur,who looks like a newcomer to the ranks but she has acquired a horse from Ireland and I often find they can be well handicapped when racing in the UK.She steps it up in trip and that should suit as it was keeping on at the finish in its last race.

Gamain is the one to beat as it makes its handicap debut after a decent run last time.

Gilzean won on its seasonal debut last time and is respected on that but this is a rise in class into a grade where its 0w-1p-6r.

Back  Vision Du Coeur 6pts at 7.5 at Bet365(Accept 6.0)-Won(+60pts *Paid out BOG*)(DT+53pts)

135 Musselburgh-Viva Colonia can be a bit in and out but not when it races at this track,as form figures of 1st-1st-2nd show.

The 2nd was in this race last year and if it can reproduce that,it should win this for a trainer that is 10 from 26 with his chasers here.

Workbench has a good chance if it stays dry(Which looks unlikely) as its posted several good ratings this season but a record of 0w-1p-11r from December to April does sound a note of caution.

Shadrack is solid and should run its race but that may not be good enough.

Back Viva Colonia 7pts at 6.5 at various bookies-UP(-7pts)Weak as anything in the pre race market and ran accordingly

210 Musselburgh-This is a good race and though it may find its younger rivals being too much, surely Strongpoint is well overpriced.

A record of 3w-0p-5r here commands serious respect,particularly if the rain comes and I would expect a bold bid to repeat last years win in this race.

Hawk High and Stephanie Francis head the list of dangers.

Back Strongpoint 4pts at 15.0 at Totesport/WilliamHill(Accept 13.0)-2nd(-4pts)Ran a fine race.(DT+42pts)

320 Musselburgh-Last years winning stable look to have a strong hand again with the unexposed Fly Vinnie here.

The yard generally do well here(6 from 21 with their hurdlers) and im surprised this improver isnt shorter in the betting.

Capellanus would have a good chance on good ground but its a 6Ibs worse horse on soft ground and thats what im expecting.

Back Fly Vinnie 7pts at 7.0 at various bookies(Accept 5.5)-Won(+38.5pts *1 non runner)Hammered into favourite and absolutely hosed up.(DT+80.5pts)

150 Fakenham-The Omen has been consistent most of the season and drops in class here for a trainer that is 10 from 29 with his chasers here,it must go well.

Oxalido travels a long way for this race and although it hasnt done much over fences,the fact that the trainer is 1 from 2 when he does venture this far,has to be a positive.

Alright Benny produced a solid set of runs before running poorly last time,its 2w-1p-6r in this grade and is respected.

Icy Colt is 0w-0p-6r on sharp tracks like this,is 0w-1p-7r on ground worse than good and hails from a yard that are 0 from 26 at this track.It should be around a 10/1 chance for me.

Lay Icy Colt 20pts at 5.0-2nd(+20pts)(After commission+19pts)(DT+99.5pts)

Running Total+7283.79pts