It fell on its seasonal debut but that race has worked out poorly and the trainer has a rare poor record here(0 from 25 with his hurdlers and chasers)
Tafika has form figures of 2nd-2nd-1st when encountering 2m4 on soft ground and should go well.
Until Winning is very unexposed after just the one run over fences while Golanova is also improving.
Granville Island looks solid while Frontier Spirit could really make them go,if it got loose in front.
Lay Madness Light 20pts at 6.0-UP(+20pts)
150 Sandown-Brick Red finished behind Mr Mole last time but there are reasons to believe it could turn that form around here.
Mr Mole looks best fresh,as a record of 5 from 5 after an absence of 80 days or more suggests but when(like today)it returns after 40 days or less then its record of 0w-3p-6r is far less appealing.Its still respected however as the trainer has won this 3 times in recent years.
The value has to be Brick Red though,as this horse doesnt start winning until the New year comes around(Jan/Feb 5w-2p-8r) and likes a recent run(28 days or less 4w-3p-12r)
It will love the ground and it should go close.
Williams Wishes has been very lightly raced in recent seasons but showed more last time,it would be a big danger if back to its best.
Back Brick Red 8pts at 6.5 at Corals/Bet365(Accept 5.5)-2nd(-8pts)Frustratingly looked like coming there to win but was carried across by the winner causing it to switch and couldnt get there.
240 Wincanton-Earthmoves moves into handicap company with a nice progressive profile.
Trip and ground are perfect and anything close to its latest novice win would be good enough.The trainer is 27% with his hurdlers here.
Provo is very difficult to assess but could be the biggest danger.
Volt Face needs to have come on for its latest seasonal debut but the trainer has won this race the last 2 times it was staged,so it has to be feared.
Back Earthmoves 11pts at 4.3 at various bookies-3rd(-11pts)Smashed into 6/5 but just never got there.
140 Newcastle-This could well turn out to be a war of attrition and what we need is a horse that loves very soft ground and stays a bit further than todays trip.
Soudain ticks those boxes and interestingly makes its stable debut for a yard that are 20% with their chasers here but as ever with this outfit,I would want it to stay solid in the betting at the very least.
Soudain is 3w-2p-6r on heavy ground and 4w-5p-12r in fields of 10 or less.Its clearly the one to beat for me.
Beauboreen moves upto 3 miles over fences for the first time and could be a threat while High Ron represents a yard that are 2 from 4 with their chasers here.
Back Soudain 12pts at 4.5 at various bookies.-2nd(-12pts)Probably went quick enough early on but ran a great race.(DT-12pts)
No comments:
Post a Comment