16th January

430 Wolves-Hot Beat ran an encouraging race,on its first outing for over a year,last time out which was also its stable debut for the David Simcock yard.
The yard itself are in fine form wirh 7 winners from their last 20 runners and with Martin Harley booked for the ride(24% strike rate for the Trainer),it looks a big price.
Alisante ran a good race last time,on its first start over this trip.Its the main danger but is very short.
Back Hot Beat 6pts at 11.0 at Paddys/Betfair Sportsbook(Advised earlier)-Won(+60pts)Hammered into 7/2 and won cosily.

210 Ayr-If its recovered after its run 5 days ago then Bryden Boy is the most likely winner of this race but it had a very tough race that day and does tend to hit the frame rather than win.
It also ran below par on its previous visit here.
Lochnell looks a fair alternative to me.
Its got the champion jockey booked and a low racing weight to boot,its record over this trip is 2w-2p-5r and is 2w-1p-3r when returning to the track within 15 days like today.
Its rating from 3 starts back gives it a great chance and it should be much shorter in the betting.
Back Lochnell 9pts at 5.5 at Various bookies-3rd(-9pts)Typically Bryden Boy did run its race and won easily.

305 Plumpton-Henllan Harri looks a little short to me,as its not certain to enjoy the very soft ground plus its not like its clear on my figures although it did run one of its better races last time.
Royal Salute is another trading shorter than I have it,this one will like the ground but the final stages could see its stamina ebbing away,as so far,ive got it better at shorter.
This creates some value elsewhere.
Itoldyou is up in class but is now 18Ibs below its last winning mark,its ran well on its last two starts and gets a top jockey in Tom Cannon onboard.
It has a fine 2w-1p-8r record at this track and is 4w-2p-10r over trips of  3m1+.
Sweettoothtommy is very unexposed and made a good chase debut last time.
Any improvement on that would see it going very close.
Back Itoldyou 7pts at 7.0 & Sweettoothtommy 7pts at 7.0 both at various bookies-Lost(-14pts)(DT+37pts)
Monthly Total+9.5pts
Running Total+8633.77pts