Nautical Twilight has only had 2 runs over fences and would have chances on its run 2 starts back but this horse is very inconsistent and looks best at Sedgefield.
Trust Thomas tends to struggle when its handicap rating goes over 111(115 today) while Pamak D`Airy has 4 course wins to its name and won this race last year.
It ran over a trip too far on its seasonal debut and i would expect better here but its around the same price I have it.
There are reasons to believe Ubaltique could outrun its odds.
It was pulled up on its first run this season but its record when away from the track for over 121 days is 0w-0p-5r,so it obviously needs a run to put it straight after a break.
It drops in grade(Class 4 2w-1p-6r) and this is its time of year(December/January 3w-2p-7r)
Perhaps most interesting of all is its record when carrying 11st12 or more(2w-2p-4r) which suggests its at its best when giving weight away to inferior opponents.
On its best runs last season,it would win this.
Back Ubaltique 7pts at 6.5 at Bet365/Betvictor(Accept 6.0)-UP(-7pts)
230 Warwick-Cyclop was a well backed favourite when coming down at the last fence,in a race it was winning easily.
This looks more competitive but from a handicapping perspective,it looks chucked in here if it can repeat that run.
Denali Highway was a well backed horse last time on its first run for 18 months but could only manage 2nd,it may regress on its 2nd start back.
Ballyrath has only had 1 run over fences and gets a visor fitted,any improvement could see it get involved.
Back Cyclop 16pts at 3.25(Already advised)-Won(+36pts)Hosed up!(DT+29pts)
Monthly Total+51pts
Running Total+8352.45pts
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