5th October

250 Redcar-Caspar Netscher drops down to listed level from running in Group 2`s and if the rain does come,it will be a worthy favourite particularly now theyve finally jocked Shane Kelly off the ride..It is a better horse with some give in the ground though as is Top Notch Tonto who put up a career best performance last time but over a furlong further.

Dandy Boy is 0w-0p-5r at Listed level and also 0w-0p-5r on galloping tracks but may appreciate the step up in trip.

At a big price though,Dutch Rose surely should be a shorter price than it is as an in form,consistent filly thats ratings show an upward curve.

Its 5w-1p-7r over todays trip and 5w-3p-11r when returning to the track within 28 days.

Back Dutch Rose 7pts at 9.0 at Various Bookies.-UP(-7pts)Should`ve been there with the first 2 but clearly didnt run its race.

240 Ascot-Good race with no stand out contender.Royal Empire is just top rated on its last run but that was on the polytrack,its never raced on soft ground.

Gatewood is a CD winner,will handle the ground and is 4w-1p-7r when returning to the track within 28 days but its the right price.

Secret Number should go well but has never won on turf,so the value for me is Mijhaar,who will have no problem on the ground but the key to this horse is having a break between its races.

When returning after an absence for 60 days or more its form figures are 2nd,1st,3rd,1st. 

If it can run to the rating 3 starts back(First time out this season) then it will go very close.

Back Mijhaar 6pts at 9.0 at Various Bookies-UP(-6pts)

340 Fontwell-Giant O Murchu won last time over 2m1f but has been lumped up to a mark its never been competitive off.Its also 0w-0p-6r over 2m2f and further.Aidan Coleman who rode it to win last time has got off to ride the very unexposed Dorset Naga whos 1/1 around here.

Fearless Leader is respected for its in form trainer(3w-1p-9r in the last 28 days)

Synthe Davis has a strong profile 28 days or less 2w-1p-5r,class 4 races 4w-6p-15r and a very good 3w-1p-5r at this track.

Milgen Bay is pretty in and out these days but is dropping down the handicap and it wouldnt surprise me if it ran well.

Lay Giant O Murchu 30pts at 5.5(Lay up to 6.0)-UP(+30pts)Drifted and never seen with a chance,making it a small winning day.(DT+17pts)
Days total minmus commission+16.15pts
Monthly Total+100.15pts
Running Total+5709.58pts