This doesnt apply to Firm Order,who has run well in each of its 3 runs this winter,only losing out to a course specialist last time.
A repeat of that effort would see it going very close for a yard that are 18% with their handicap chasers at this track.
Open Hearted represents top connections but it weakened badly over this trip last time.
Umberto D`Olivate is 4 from 8 over fences and looks like it may get 3 miles but whether it improves for it is another thing.
Back Firm Order 8pts at 6.0 at Various bookies(Accept 5.5)-5th(-8pts)
325 Newcastle-Its difficult to see Chavoy not being involved in the finish here.
It ran well behind a horse that was on a roll last time and that rating makes it the one to beat here.
If anything it will be better suited by todays heavy going and the track(1 from 2 here)
Its 3w-3p-8r in this grade and 3w-4p-10r in fields of 10 or less
Lively Baron is a force in this grade(4 from 7) and handles soft but is a 7Ib worse horse on heavy on my figures.
Beauboreen represents a yard that are 3 from 8 with their handicap chasers here but it finished behind the selection last time and has to improve.
The possilbe fly in the ointment could by The Orange Rogue,who steps up a mile in trip,its very difficult to assess but will need to see out this trip well to win this.
Back Chavoy 11pts at 4.3 at various bookies(Accept 4.0)-3rd(-11pts)
430 Newcastle-This is a desperate race,which wont take much winning.
Deny is favourite on the back of its win last time.If it repeats that,it wont be far away but its never raced on heavy ground and is 0w-0p-6r on galloping tracks like this.
Alizee De Janeiro hasnt had many chances and looks the most likely to run its race,its the right price however.
At a big price,Im going to chance Sam Lord.
This horse has done nothing this year but has been racing in a higher grade and over further.
In races over 2m2f or further its 0 from 23 but its now back to 2miles, a trip its won 5 times at and dropped into a grade where its 1w-1p-2r.
The last time it raced over this course and distance on very soft ground,it won off a mark 10Ibs higher.
Its dangerously well handicapped now and Brian Hughes is never a bad booking.
It will either win or come nowhere I would say.
Back Sam Lord 4pts at 15.0 at various Bookies(Accept 11.0)-UP(-4pts)Punted into 4/1 but showed little(DT-23pts)
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