405 Kempton-Milgen Bay has been in good form but looks incredibly short to me considering ive got it as an 8Ibs worse horse at this trip and could be vulnerable.
If it gets home then it will probably win but for me it has to be taken on.
Ballybough Pat is inconsistent and may want softer ground but a repeat of its latest run would see it go very close.
However,im going to take a punt on the outsider in the race...Trafalgar.
This horse is really well handicapped now,has won fresh before and has joined a yard that have won with 2 of their last 4 runners.
Back Trafalgar 6pts at 10.0 at various bookies(Accept 6.0)-UP(-6pts)The horse has gone,i think.I spent the whole race knowing i should have tipped Ballybough Pat.
505 Kempton-Agapanthus would have won last time out,if it hadnt come down 2 out.
That performance makes it the one to beat here and after just 3 runs,it should have more to come against more exposed rivals.
Noble Friend is consistent and looks the danger as Kayfton Pete normally operates at a lower level than this.
Back Agapanthus 14pts at 3.5 at various bookies-Won(+28pts *2 nrs)For 80% of this race,this looked an awful selection but 3 out,this horse consented to actually start trying and just hung on.
855 Perth-High Fair won last time but is going to need to improve for the step up in trip to win this.
That looks doubtful on the predicted ground(Soft/Heavy 0w-1p-8r) and the trainer has just a 4% strike rate here.
Isaactstown Lad,Snapping Turtle and Rytton Runner should all run well.
Lay High Fair 20pts at 6.0-Non Runner(DT+22pts)
Monthly Total+175pts
Running Total+7777.24pts
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