It won last time on just its 2nd start over fences and that rating is the best on show.
The 2nd and 3rd that day have come out and won and the trainer has won this race twice in the last 3 years.
Saint Ralph is up in class but will be better over this trip than last time while Fayette County could be a danger if the money comes.
Quincy Des Pictons has been off a while but has finished 1st-2nd-1st in its 3 starts here and Fourth Act has been consistent but moves up in grade.
Back Otago Trail 20pts at 2.75 at Hills/Betway/Paddys-Won(+35pts)A short price but a very easy winner.
1250 Kempton-Rouge Et Blanc is down to run at Chepstow(1st preference)
Theres a few that can be discounted here,Galway Jack is 0 from 7 going right handed and has no record after a break(121 days+ ow-0p-4r)
Starkie is another that tends to need a run after a break and although it has Richard Johnson onboard,he only has a 4% strikerate for the yard.
Comeonginger is 2 from 2 here and if it copes with the drop in trip then its a big runner.
The Clock Leary has chances on its best form but appears to have lost its way a little,so that leaves Balgarry as my choice.
It unseated early on last time but it was showing progressive form over fences before that.
Its 2w-1p-5r in this class and the sire has a 33% strike rate at this track.
Back Balgarry 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-UP(-12pts)Late money for it but ran terribly.
310 Kempton-Its a competitve race but Harry`s Farewell is surely the wrong price here.
Although up in class and despite coming down at the first over xmas,it was very progressive before that and its speed figure two starts back,is the best on show here.
Kruzhlinin makes its first start for Phillip Hobbs and has the back class to take this but it hasnt won since 2013 and the jury remains out.
Le Reve likes going right handed and drops in class but it couldnt be described as well handicapped.
Back Harry`s Farewell 5pts at 13.0 at ladbrokes/888sport/32red-3rd(-5pts)Ran a good race but too many niggly mistakes at its fences
345 Kempton-Hollywood All Star has won its last two starts but moves up in grade,is 0w-0p-6r around this track and 0w-0p-11r going right handed overall.
Despite clearly being in the form of its life,its got it all to do here.
Dormouse is another in good form but its latest win matched its best ever rating and at the age of 11,I cant see it bettering it and it needs too.
Heath Hunter is solid and must run well but the stable jockey is on the dropped in class Stars Over The Sea.
That horse looks like it has issues with the ground but there has been some early money for it.
Jumps Road should be involved as its best over this trip but I like the lightly raced Tara Bridge.
It finished 2nd on its seasonal debut last time in a race that has worked out well(1st and 3rd have won 3 races since)
Its form figures have gone 5,4,3,2...so lest hope it can add a 1 on.
Back Tara Bridge 10pts at 5.0 at various bookies-UP(-10pts)Weak in the betting and ran terrible.
Lay Hollywood All Star 20pts at 6.0-2nd(+19pts)Ran much better than I thought(DT+27pts)
Monthly Total-111pts
Running Total+8340.95pts
No comments:
Post a Comment