2w-0p-5r in fields of 9 or less and 2w-0p-3r when dropped into class 5 races like this.
River Purple hit form last time on its 2nd chase start.Its got a chance on that but needs to improve again and its never been the most consistent.
Pistol Basc isnt out of it on its last 2 ratings but tends to lose form this time of year(December to March 0w-1p-15r)
Moonlight Maggie has only had 1 run over fences and may be capable of better.
Back Milan Royale 12pts at 4.5 at Skybet-UP(-12pts)Really well backed but was never travelling at any stage.
Accept 4.0
225 Catterick-Big Water is probably slightly better on better ground but its won 2 races on soft ground and based on its chase debut,it should hold a very good chance here.
Its 1w-1p-2r at this track,2w-2p-6r in fields of 9 or less and 3w-2p-8r over this trip.Clear top rated with possible improvement to come.
Surprise Vendor is the main danger as a consistent animal thats fine over the trip and ground.
Back Big Water 17pts at 4.0-3rd(-17pts)Really disappointing run despite looking threatening at one stage(touched 1.9 in running) it was very one paced in the straight.(-29pts)
Accept 3.0
115 Newbury-Denali Highway is the one to beat but its the right price and I cant bring myself to support an Andrew Thornton ridden horse again anyway.
Howards Legacy will love the ground but does step up in trip and will need to get every yard in these conditions.
Shaking Hands and Restless Harry both go best on heavy ground but are both wildly inconsistent.At their best,they would hold chances but its difficult to know what they will produce.
Financial Climate is pretty consistent and should run its race for its very in form trainer(Won with 3 of his last 4 runners).
Its also 2w-0p-3r when returning to the track within 28 days.
Back Financial Climate 7pts at 7.0-Won(+42pts)Somehow touched 110s in running.(DT+13pts)
235 Chepstow-Ive been waiting for Well Refreshed to run on very soft ground again.This horse was a very progressive staying chaser last season and returned to good form last time at Sandown on good ground.What was encouraging about that run is that this horse is much better going left handed(5 win from 12 starts compared to 0 from 8 going right handed).
4w-0p-8r when returning to the track within 28 days and its record on Soft/heavy ground over 3miles+ is 1st-1st-1st-Fell.
Vintage Star is respected on its last run but it may be better in a smaller field.
Goonyella will stay and is fine on the ground.
Back Well Respected 7pts at 9.2-PU(-7pts)How do you explain a run as bad as this?(DT+6pts)
Accept 8.0
110 Lingfield-Dubai Hills has a fantastic record at Southwell(7wins from 8 starts) and it was no surprise when it won there last time over a furlong shorter than today.Its only 2 wins from 42 starts everywhere else and is 0 from 4 on polytrack(Nearly a stone inferior on my ratings).
This is its first run at this track and its possibly slighter better at 7 furlongs.It looks priced up on its fibresand efforts rather Polytrack.
Loyalty is nailed on to run well.Its the only course winner in the field and is 4w-4p-10r when returning to the track within 7 days.
Galician drops down to handicap company and must have a good chance with Adam Kirby(11 wins from 45 rides) riding for Mark Johnston.
I think Clockmaker will run better here stepping back up to a mile while Birdman looks like it wants this trip now.
Lay Dubai Hills 20pts at 6.0 -3rd(+10pts Only Partially matched)(DT+16pts)
*Cancel or Trade out if Loyalty,Galician or Clockmaker doesnt run*
Days total minus commission+15.2pts
Monthly Total+102.40pts
Running Total+5909.50pts
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