3rd December

2.0 Sedgefield-Bright Applause is the market leader after a good run last time but that was on good ground(as are its best flat runs) and with showers forecast,it looks vulnerable.

Travis County has a chance on its run 2 starts back in a better race than this but a record of 1 win from 22 starts suggest its more likely not to get its head in front despite McCoy being booked(Not that significant 3wins from 20 rides for the yard)

Trust Thomas has dropped back in trip on each run so far this season and last time saw it put up a career best rating.The topspeed figure backs up that run and this horse is the clear value in this race.

Celtic Abbey and Satanic Beat make their handicap debuts and the market will probably tell their tale.

Back Trust Thomas 8pts at 6.0 at Bet365-UP(-8pts)Price shortened up and looked a big danger 3 out but very surprised to see it weaken like it did

Accept 5.5

3.0 Sedgefield-Very ordinary race with doubts about everything.

Pistol Basc returned to form last time and has won here but tends to lose its form this time of year(December to April 0w-2p-19r).It looks shorter than it should be on my tissue.

Monbeg and Farm Pixie both made their chase debuts last time and both achieved the same rating,however the latter is over 3 times the price and is clearly the value.Both possibly want slightly softer ground but with rain forecast that may happen.

Both are obviously open to progress after just the 1 start over fences and although Monbeg has won here,the gap in prices is just far too big.

Back Farm Pixie 6pts at 9.0 at Bet365/Paddys=2nd(-6pts)Another mover in the market and ran a very nice race on ground that would have been too quick as the rain didnt come(DT-14pts)

Accept 7.0