440 Cheltenham-The standout bet on day 1 of the festival is Shotgun Paddy in the 4 miler.This horse is lightly raced,with only 4 runs over fences,each showing a nice progression.
Ive got it 4Ibs clear here and it should be favourite.Its 2w-1p-4r in fields of 10 runners or more and this is actually a drop in class after its Grade 3 handicap win last time
This horse meets all the trends for this race as well.Which are mainly-Have to be a 7 or 8yo-Placed 1st or 2nd in a chase over at least 3 miles-Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of its last 2 starts and had ran at least 3 times over fences.
I respect Foxrock,from a trainer who doesnt waste his time sending horses with no chance to this festival.The 2 others ive got with chances are Midnight Prayer whos been in good form and Shutthefrontdoor,whos trainer normally wins one of the staying events at this meeting.
Back Shotgun Paddy 8pts at 6.0 at Various bookies-2nd(-8pts)Must have hit every fence and went down by a short head.Unbelievable really,would have won by half the track if it had jumped better.
255 Sedgefield-Grate Fella was a little all at sea last time on heavy ground but back on this better ground and at this track(Sedgefield 1w-1p-2r),I can see it bouncing back.
There has to be a reason that Ryan Mania hasnt travelled to the Cheltenham to ride Vintage Star,either they think that has no chance or this has a great chance.
I think its the latter.
Its a Mans World makes its handicap debut for Brian Ellison but returns after an absence.Its got chances and a lot will depend on how strong it stays in the market.
Sud Pacifique has been running consistently without winning,its 0w-3p-11r in this grade and is clearly vulnerable.
Looking On is lightly raced and capable of better but the trainer is struggling.
Back Grate Fella 9pts at 5.5 at Various Bookies-UP(-9pts)Hammered in the betting but dropped out down the back straight.(DT-17pts)
Monthly Total+160.60pts
Running Total+6276.12pts
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