320 Cheltenham-Other than the fact its been on the go since October.I see no reason why Sire De Grugy wont win this.Its 6Ibs clear on my figures and its latest performance was a career best.The drying ground shouldn’t be a problem and much has been made of it running below par around this track.
It may be slightly better around a Sandown but its last run here,going down by 3 lengths(trainer reported one of its shoes has come off) to Kid Cassidy giving it 10Ibs gives it plenty in hand here off level weights.
It also fits all the key trends criteria.It should be around 7/4 in my view.
The danger for me Arvika Ligeonniere,whos been pretty progressive in Ireland and is also a little overpriced.I wouldn’t put anyone off the forecast.
I respect the trainer for Captain Conan & Kid Cassidy but they have a mountain to climb on ratings.
Back Sire Du Grugy 12pts at 4.0 at various bookies-Won(+36pts)Just a legend of a horse.If only they were all like him.
745 Kempton-Spellmaker has been very progressive this winter,especially at this track where its form figures over this trip read 1st-1st-1st-4th-2nd)
It actually drops down 2 grades from a class 3 for this and is 4w-2p-7r when returning to the track within 28 days.
New Leyf is possibly the main danger.6 furlongs around this track are its ideal conditions(form figures of 2nd-2nd-1st-1st-2nd),its 2w-1p-3r in March and must run well back after a break although the trainer could be in better form.
Go Far was a bit below par last time but a return to the form of its previous 2nd placed finish at Southwell wouldnt put it far away.It does act around here.It lacks the progression and consistency of Spellmaker though.
Back Spellmaker 12pts at 4.5 at Bet365-Won(+42pts)Travelled well and put it to bed easily.
Accept 4.3
255 Huntingdon-Midnight Charmer sets a decent standard here and has a pretty consistent profile.It should run ok even though it is 0w-2p-12r from January to May.The trainer has lost a bit of form recently and hasnt ever had a winner here.
Long Wave drops in grade for an in form yard.Its back from a break but thats rarely a problem with this stable.It shouldnt be far away.
The interesting one is Faith Keeper.who hasnt matched its runaway win around here before christmas.The rating it posted that day wins this and there are reasons to believe it could reproduce it.
Its down in class,its 1 from 1 at this track and 1 from 1 over this trip.The trainer is 20% with his chasers here and theyve had a few winners lately
Back Faith Keeper 6pts at 9.0 at Bet365-2nd(-6pts)Well backed into 9/2 and went odds on in running but just got outstayed.(DT+72pts)
Monthly Total+232.60pts
Running Total+6348.12pts
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